Dynasty Rookie #1 (1 Viewer)

[jeter23]

For those of you who own the 1.01 rookie pick in your dynasty league, or those that would like to own it, who are you taking?

Feel free to take your league rules and other details into account, as they are not specified. PPR, scarcity of RBs and obviously, team need would affect each vote.

 

[golfguy]

i think a lot of that depends on where these guys end up. you can't really make this call just yet.

all things equal. i think crabtree is the best of the bunch. i think the nfl is turning into more of a passing league then running. (ppr league of course)

 

[awesomeness]

Haven't decided who i think is the best RB in this class between Moreno/McCoy. Went to safe route with Crabtree.

 

[jurb26]

It's too early to give a reliable vote, but my vote would go to Moreno as of today.

 

[jeter23]

It's too early to give a reliable vote, but my vote would go to Moreno as of today.

Yeah, way early obviously, but I do think it will be interesting to see. I think you can make a case for multiple guys as the 1.01 this year, where the past has been pretty much set (McFadden, AD, Bush).

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's too early to give a reliable vote, but my vote would go to Moreno as of today.

Yeah, way early obviously, but I do think it will be interesting to see. I think you can make a case for multiple guys as the 1.01 this year, where the past has been pretty much set (McFadden, AD, Bush).

By the time the draft rolls around things will likely separate much more, this is how it always works.I think Wells will pull ahead after the combine, some will still like Moreno, and some will go with the sexy pick of McCoy/Greene/Crabtree. This is pretty much the same as in the past, as last year there were plenty of folks arguing Mendenhall or Steward should be number one and just as many arguing for Calvin/Marshawn last year.

 

[Chachi]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

 

[jurb26]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

Not that it matters, but EBF has very little influence over my opinions of prospects. Not really sure what your getting worked up over though. McCoy only has 8 votes.

 

[Kleck]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

Not that it matters, but EBF has very little influence over my opinions of prospects. Not really sure what your getting worked up over though. McCoy only has 8 votes.

There are a lot of people at FBGs that have a good understanding of the rookies each year, but I don't let any of them influence my decision when making my rankings/tiers for rookie drafts either. Same thing with the "TV Experts" Kiper, McShay or Mayock. It doesn't mean I don't read other's opinions or listen to what the "experts" have to say though. There could always be something someone else sees that I might miss or need to look closer at.

 

[Tecmo]

looks like last year with the top-3 being varied. i get a chuckle of all the Crabtree votes, when it comes down to draft time you know the RBs will trump Crabtree just like Calvin Johnson was dissed. Sure, some of you picked CJ first, but the consensus was RB first and second because that's what losing teams most likely lack.

 

[NorrisB]

It's too early to give a reliable vote, but my vote would go to Moreno as of today.

Yeah, way early obviously, but I do think it will be interesting to see. I think you can make a case for multiple guys as the 1.01 this year, where the past has been pretty much set (McFadden, AD, Bush).

i think it will be interesting as well

 

[doubletrouble]

 

[awesomeness]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

I'm not 100% convinced that Moreno will be drafted ahead of McCoy at the moment. I have a feeling McCoy will have one of the best combine's of any of the RB class this year. Personally i wouldn't be surprised if he's the first RB drafted in the NFL draft.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

y7

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

Geez, what a loser post. Someone not getting enough attention?

 

[KarmaPolice]

looks like last year with the top-3 being varied. i get a chuckle of all the Crabtree votes, when it comes down to draft time you know the RBs will trump Crabtree just like Calvin Johnson was dissed. Sure, some of you picked CJ first, but the consensus was RB first and second because that's what losing teams most likely lack.

Of course it all comes down to rules/scoring/need. A lot of my dynasty leagues have flex scoring that make the WRs slightly more valuable. Crabtree's skill set have people talking of a can't-miss like Calvin and Fitz. Seems like people are undecided about the Rbs and which will be the one to have. Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

 

[JohnnyU]

 

[BigTex]

It's too early to give a reliable vote, but my vote would go to Moreno as of today.

Yeah, way early obviously, but I do think it will be interesting to see. I think you can make a case for multiple guys as the 1.01 this year, where the past has been pretty much set (McFadden, AD, Bush).

Hello jeter, I respectfully disagree to a degree. It's never too early once a player has officially declared. Either a player has the talent to be #1 or #2 or he doesn't. McCoy, Moreno, Crabtree will be amongst the first three chosen regardless of where they land. I traded for the 1.2 rookie pick and there's no way I'm passing on either of these guys based on where they are drafted.After Tier1, IMHO it begins to matter where a player is drafted. Tier1 IMHO, is/should be based on pure talent, unless Tier1 is weak which it is not this year.:twocents:

 

[Holland Freeze]

I went with Moreno but this is an area very much in flex for me EVEN before we know where the players will end up. Wells and Moreno are running very close. McCoy has been moving up closer to both but the combine and his final destination will have more impact than the other 2.

Crabtree may be the best prospect coming out this year but I would be hard pressed to take a WR with the 1st pick unless I had traded for the pick to enable me to address a team need.

 

[kremenull]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

 

[metoo]

In one PPR dynasty league(pick 1.1) must start 3 wrs, I will probably take Crabtree.

In another PPR dynasty league(pick 1.2) start 2-3 wrs, I will take Crabtree or Moreno.

 

[doubletrouble]

 

[JohnnyU]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

I'm a big fan of Wells, and my stepson graduated from OSU, and my entire family on my wife's side are OSU fans. However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. Kind of reminds me of MeWelde Moore when he was with the Vikings and in Mike Tice's doghouse. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.ETA: Wells has questionable hands and doesn't protect well, so he could be a two down back in the NFL. Remind anyone of Larry Johnson?

 

[kremenull]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

I'm a big fan of Wells, and my stepson graduated from OSU, and my entire family on my wife's side are OSU fans. However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. Kind of reminds me of MeWelde Moore when he was with the Vikings and in Mike Tice's doghouse. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.ETA: Wells has questionable hands and doesn't protect well, so he could be a two down back in the NFL. Remind anyone of Larry Johnson?

LJ must have helped a whole lot of teams win a fantasy championship in '05 and '06. If Wells can put together at least 2 seasons on par with LJ, I'd be happy with that as my overall #1. Winning is everything.......

 

[JohnnyU]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

I'm a big fan of Wells, and my stepson graduated from OSU, and my entire family on my wife's side are OSU fans. However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. Kind of reminds me of MeWelde Moore when he was with the Vikings and in Mike Tice's doghouse. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.ETA: Wells has questionable hands and doesn't protect well, so he could be a two down back in the NFL. Remind anyone of Larry Johnson?

LJ must have helped a whole lot of teams win a fantasy championship in '05 and '06. If Wells can put together at least 2 seasons on par with LJ, I'd be happy with that as my overall #1. Winning is everything.......

Sorry, but I want more from the #1 overall than a couple great years from a player. No guarantee you win with one player having a great year. That's a steep price for that gamble.

 

[slayer666]

However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.

 

[JohnnyU]

However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.

Now to play devil's advocate - Something from Draft CountdownThe big knock on Ohio State running back Chris "Beanie Wells as a pro prospect is that he's injury-prone. Now durability is a valid concern but not nearly to the extent some are making it out to be.

Earlier this season Wells missed a few weeks with a toe injury but prior to that he had never missed a game during his college career. Three games in three years isn't bad. Sure Wells gets nicked up at times but that's the case with all football players. Especially 237 lb. running backs! Instead of getting hung up on the bumps and bruises he has endured how about crediting him for being tough enough to play through the pain?

I just have one thing to say to those who feel Wells will drop on Draft Day due to his durability:

Think again.

Adrian Peterson actually missed a lot more time with injuries when he was in college than Wells has and he was still the #7 overall pick. Just last year Jonathan Stewart was dealing with the same talk about him being "injury-prone" as Wells is now and he still went 13th overall. How are those guys doing in the NFL? Running backs are going to deal with injuries, it's just a fact of life. It would be one thing if Wells had blown out a knee or suffered some other serious injury but that's just not the case. The truth is "Beanie" has dealt with a handful of relatively minor ailments and most teams aren't going to hold it against him.

In the coming months you will likely hear people going on and on about how injury-prone Wells is or downgrading him because he can't stay healthy. Those questions aren't completely without merit but for the most part the issue is being overblown. Ignore all that fluff and rhetoric; Wells is a legit Top 10 talent.

End

Again, my concern with Wells goes a lot deeper than durability. He has Larry Johnson written all over him, which is a good thing for a short time, but bad in the long run. I don't know about you, but I like my RBs to play 3 downs, not 2.

 

[Burning Sensation]

However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.

Now to play devil's advocate - Something from Draft CountdownThe big knock on Ohio State running back Chris "Beanie Wells as a pro prospect is that he's injury-prone. Now durability is a valid concern but not nearly to the extent some are making it out to be.

Earlier this season Wells missed a few weeks with a toe injury but prior to that he had never missed a game during his college career. Three games in three years isn't bad. Sure Wells gets nicked up at times but that's the case with all football players. Especially 237 lb. running backs! Instead of getting hung up on the bumps and bruises he has endured how about crediting him for being tough enough to play through the pain?

I just have one thing to say to those who feel Wells will drop on Draft Day due to his durability:

Think again.

Adrian Peterson actually missed a lot more time with injuries when he was in college than Wells has and he was still the #7 overall pick. Just last year Jonathan Stewart was dealing with the same talk about him being "injury-prone" as Wells is now and he still went 13th overall. How are those guys doing in the NFL? Running backs are going to deal with injuries, it's just a fact of life. It would be one thing if Wells had blown out a knee or suffered some other serious injury but that's just not the case. The truth is "Beanie" has dealt with a handful of relatively minor ailments and most teams aren't going to hold it against him.

In the coming months you will likely hear people going on and on about how injury-prone Wells is or downgrading him because he can't stay healthy. Those questions aren't completely without merit but for the most part the issue is being overblown. Ignore all that fluff and rhetoric; Wells is a legit Top 10 talent.

End

Again, my concern with Wells goes a lot deeper than durability. He has Larry Johnson written all over him, which is a good thing for a short time, but bad in the long run. I don't know about you, but I like my RBs to play 3 downs, not 2.

You dont like AD or Turner?

 

[RustyFA2]

I'd say Crabtree has it. Are you going to make a #2 poll?

 

[JohnnyU]

However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.

Now to play devil's advocate - Something from Draft CountdownThe big knock on Ohio State running back Chris "Beanie Wells as a pro prospect is that he's injury-prone. Now durability is a valid concern but not nearly to the extent some are making it out to be.

Earlier this season Wells missed a few weeks with a toe injury but prior to that he had never missed a game during his college career. Three games in three years isn't bad. Sure Wells gets nicked up at times but that's the case with all football players. Especially 237 lb. running backs! Instead of getting hung up on the bumps and bruises he has endured how about crediting him for being tough enough to play through the pain?

I just have one thing to say to those who feel Wells will drop on Draft Day due to his durability:

Think again.

Adrian Peterson actually missed a lot more time with injuries when he was in college than Wells has and he was still the #7 overall pick. Just last year Jonathan Stewart was dealing with the same talk about him being "injury-prone" as Wells is now and he still went 13th overall. How are those guys doing in the NFL? Running backs are going to deal with injuries, it's just a fact of life. It would be one thing if Wells had blown out a knee or suffered some other serious injury but that's just not the case. The truth is "Beanie" has dealt with a handful of relatively minor ailments and most teams aren't going to hold it against him.

In the coming months you will likely hear people going on and on about how injury-prone Wells is or downgrading him because he can't stay healthy. Those questions aren't completely without merit but for the most part the issue is being overblown. Ignore all that fluff and rhetoric; Wells is a legit Top 10 talent.

End

Again, my concern with Wells goes a lot deeper than durability. He has Larry Johnson written all over him, which is a good thing for a short time, but bad in the long run. I don't know about you, but I like my RBs to play 3 downs, not 2.

You dont like AD or Turner?

I don't think ADP will be a permanent 3rd down fixture on the sidelines. Regardless, I see Wells falling into the current LJ situation, and I'm not sure I want any of that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

 

[JohnnyU]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

Let's not forget ol' stone hands himself, Troy Wiliamson. I believe he went 8th, or something close to that.

 

[lyon812]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

To be fair, there's quite a difference between Charles Rogers and Ted Ginn. Not all of the people in your list were thought of as highly as Crabtree. Really, the list should contain people that were the consensus #1 or #2 WR in the draft to be comparable to Crabtree.

 

[awesomeness]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

 

[lyon812]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

From wiki:Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns during his first five games of the 2003 season, before breaking his collarbone while practicing a speed drill with Dré Bly, leaving him out for the season. He was expected to come back, however, in the third play of the 2004 season, Rogers suffered another broken collarbone, and was once again out for the season.He had legal problems, but it wasn't the law that caused him to miss so much playing time.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

I'm a big fan of Wells, and my stepson graduated from OSU, and my entire family on my wife's side are OSU fans. However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. Kind of reminds me of MeWelde Moore when he was with the Vikings and in Mike Tice's doghouse. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.ETA: Wells has questionable hands and doesn't protect well, so he could be a two down back in the NFL. Remind anyone of Larry Johnson?

LJ must have helped a whole lot of teams win a fantasy championship in '05 and '06. If Wells can put together at least 2 seasons on par with LJ, I'd be happy with that as my overall #1. Winning is everything.......

Sorry, but I want more from the #1 overall than a couple great years from a player. No guarantee you win with one player having a great year. That's a steep price for that gamble.

Studs win championships. Give me two years of 2200/20 over seven years of 1300/10 any day. I'm not dropping the #1 overall pick on a guy to play in my flex spot for the next 7 years. Guys putting up Faulk/LT production for longer than a couple years are immensely few and far between, so you can't expect that. I'll take two years of production that rivals those guy's best seasons and be very happy with it. The shelf life of an NFL RB is extremely short anyway, and even beyond age guys that have been solid just fizzle out after a couple seasons all the time.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

From wiki:Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns during his first five games of the 2003 season, before breaking his collarbone while practicing a speed drill with Dré Bly, leaving him out for the season. He was expected to come back, however, in the third play of the 2004 season, Rogers suffered another broken collarbone, and was once again out for the season.He had legal problems, but it wasn't the law that caused him to miss so much playing time.

So FreeBaGel thinks Crabtree is likely to break his collarbone twice? Interesting.

 

[JohnnyU]

I voted for Wells....a no-brainer IMO. Prototypical RB physique and tools just can't be disregarded. Let the "Beanie-bashing" continue, and those of you who choose someone else #1 will be sorry.....

I'm a big fan of Wells, and my stepson graduated from OSU, and my entire family on my wife's side are OSU fans. However, if there's one thing I do know about Wells, it's that he can't play with pain. If he's the slightest bit nicked up he sits. Kind of reminds me of MeWelde Moore when he was with the Vikings and in Mike Tice's doghouse. He has all the tools to be a great RB, but I'm afraid he will disappoint a lot of owners with how many games he ends up sitting out.ETA: Wells has questionable hands and doesn't protect well, so he could be a two down back in the NFL. Remind anyone of Larry Johnson?

LJ must have helped a whole lot of teams win a fantasy championship in '05 and '06. If Wells can put together at least 2 seasons on par with LJ, I'd be happy with that as my overall #1. Winning is everything.......

Sorry, but I want more from the #1 overall than a couple great years from a player. No guarantee you win with one player having a great year. That's a steep price for that gamble.

Studs win championships. Give me two years of 2200/20 over seven years of 1300/10 any day. I'm not dropping the #1 overall pick on a guy to play in my flex spot for the next 7 years. Guys putting up Faulk/LT production for longer than a couple years are immensely few and far between, so you can't expect that. I'll take two years of production that rivals those guy's best seasons and be very happy with it. The shelf life of an NFL RB is extremely short anyway, and even beyond age guys that have been solid just fizzle out after a couple seasons all the time.

Yes, the shelf life of an NFL RB is extremely short, but the #1 overall FF pick in my mind shouldn't have such glaring flaws as Wells. When you have durability issues (even though that could be overblow), and deficiencies in the passing game, it throws up red flags to me. There's also talk that he takes plays off and doesn't hit the hole as hard as he should. That's another red flag.

 

[awesomeness]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

From wiki:Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns during his first five games of the 2003 season, before breaking his collarbone while practicing a speed drill with Dré Bly, leaving him out for the season. He was expected to come back, however, in the third play of the 2004 season, Rogers suffered another broken collarbone, and was once again out for the season.He had legal problems, but it wasn't the law that caused him to miss so much playing time.

my mistake, though the premise is still the same. The guy started a total of 8 games in his career, never more than 5 in a season. How can someone remind you of a player who has started 8 games in his entire career due to injury/problems with the law?

 

[EBF]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years are:

Donte Stallworth

Charles Rogers

Andre Johnson

Roy Williams

Reggie Williams

Michael Clayton

Calvin Johnson

Ted Ginn Jr

Braylon Edwards

Mike Williams

And all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

You left Fitzgerald off your initial list and you're incorrect when you say he had "elite measurables." On paper, he's not a special athlete. He was clocked between 4.48-4.51 in the 40 at his workout, which is pretty pedestrian for an NFL WR prospect. The main knock on him coming out of school was that he wasn't a great athlete. I don't get the Rogers/Crabtree comparison at all. Rogers was a speed WR (4.3) with drug abuse problems. Crabtree is a possession WR with borderline speed. As far as I know, he doesn't have any off-field issues. I think he might be a little overrated, but it's hard to justify ranking anyone from this class ahead of him in PPR leagues.

 

[lyon812]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

From wiki:Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns during his first five games of the 2003 season, before breaking his collarbone while practicing a speed drill with Dré Bly, leaving him out for the season. He was expected to come back, however, in the third play of the 2004 season, Rogers suffered another broken collarbone, and was once again out for the season.He had legal problems, but it wasn't the law that caused him to miss so much playing time.

my mistake, though the premise is still the same. The guy started a total of 8 games in his career, never more than 5 in a season. How can someone remind you of a player who has started 8 games in his entire career due to injury/problems with the law?

*nod* I understand what you're saying. I don't recall Rogers' measurables enough to know if it's a valid comparison--I remember Rogers being faster--but wanted to clarify that his legal problems didn't surface immediately. Really, I thought Rogers looked good in those first five games--I had just missed on drafting him and was pretty peeved about it, since WR was a weak spot for me. I sometimes wonder what might have happened if he'd had two good years in 2003 and 2004 before running into law problems. Maybe he wouldn't have washed out as badly. Anyway, the lesson is, sometimes it's better to miss out on drafting people. =)

 

[Chachi]

Moreno for me.

The love for Shady at FBG is kind of funny, people think EBF is pimping him because he makes nice comments about him but he has him as his #9 rookie so Every Bodys Favorite FBG draft guru isn't sold on him. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take into context the full comments and not just one little soundbite or quote.

Shady as the #1 pick or RB is pretty far fetched, he is anywhere from the #3 to #5 RB prospect. He is a good back, don't get me wrong but this board is making him out to be something he is not, there is a reason why Moreno will be drafted ahead of him and it's not because teams like to take the lesser prospect.

If Shady makes decisions about hitting the hole the same way about his draft status then he's going to have a short lived career.

Geez, what a loser post. Someone not getting enough attention?

I'm not sure what your post even means about not getting attention, are you speaking of Moreno because he has tons more votes than McCoy, and if you're talking about me then you have no clue about anything because I am not a draft scout nor claim to be one, I don't watch film like EBF and other people. My point about "Everybodys Favorite draft guru" wasn't a shot at EBF or me seeking out attention but it was about people hearing comments from EBF and acting like they are their own comments and thoughts, not to mention not even hearing what EBF is even saying, just plucking out a small part of it and fooling themselves. EBF mentioned Dilliard in very high regards in another thread and lots of guys all of a sudden thought Dilliard was the next Marvin Harrison, the truth of it is that Dilliard is EBFs sleeper and not the whole boards, by the way Dilliard is a 5th round pick in the NFL draft. Your post was a loser post with no thought and plain negativity.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Some people would look at this pick and say you could either have a 30% chance of getting a decent RB, or you lock up a top 10 WR for years to come.

Crabtree is far from a lock. Elite WR prospects have been every bit as volatile as elite RB prospects. Top 15 picks the last few years areonte StallworthCharles RogersAndre JohnsonRoy WilliamsReggie WilliamsMichael ClaytonCalvin JohnsonTed Ginn JrBraylon EdwardsMike WilliamsAnd all but two of those guys weren't just top 15 picks, but top 10 picks. Frankly, I see a lot of Charles Rogers in Crabtree, so I would say he's very, very far from a "lock". Guys like Fitz and Calvin were locks because they had elite measurables to go with their elite talents. They were freaks of nature, that were also great football players on top of that. Crabtree's measurables are just average among WR prospects. He has great talent, but he's not going to be able to pair that with raw natural ability to just dominate NFL DBs as easily as Fitz/Calvin could.

So Crabtree reminds you of a guy who never started more than 5 games in a season due to problems with the law? From eveything i have heard Crabtree is a high character guy.

From wiki:Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns during his first five games of the 2003 season, before breaking his collarbone while practicing a speed drill with Dré Bly, leaving him out for the season. He was expected to come back, however, in the third play of the 2004 season, Rogers suffered another broken collarbone, and was once again out for the season.He had legal problems, but it wasn't the law that caused him to miss so much playing time.

So FreeBaGel thinks Crabtree is likely to break his collarbone twice? Interesting.

Funny, I didn't think a broken collarbone was a career ending injury His collarbone was fine in 2005, where he went for more than 50 yards in 1 of his 8 games.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You left Fitzgerald off your initial list and you're incorrect when you say he had "elite measurables." On paper, he's not a special athlete. He was clocked between 4.48-4.51 in the 40 at his workout, which is pretty pedestrian for an NFL WR prospect. The main knock on him coming out of school was that he wasn't a great athlete.

Fair enough. I was never talking about Fitzgerald's speed, but I had thought I remembered his vertical leap being much higher than it was. It certainly looks like he gets as high as anyone in the NFL out on the field, but it wasn't actually measured that high.He always looked a lot taller than Crabtree to me out on the field too, but now I see that Crabtree is actually listed as 6'3". I thought he was closer to 6'1".

 

[Kleck]

You left Fitzgerald off your initial list and you're incorrect when you say he had "elite measurables." On paper, he's not a special athlete. He was clocked between 4.48-4.51 in the 40 at his workout, which is pretty pedestrian for an NFL WR prospect. The main knock on him coming out of school was that he wasn't a great athlete.

Fair enough. I was never talking about Fitzgerald's speed, but I had thought I remembered his vertical leap being much higher than it was. It certainly looks like he gets as high as anyone in the NFL out on the field, but it wasn't actually measured that high.He always looked a lot taller than Crabtree to me out on the field too, but now I see that Crabtree is actually listed as 6'3". I thought he was closer to 6'1".

Not that it matters a whole lot, but Crabtree just doesn't look 6'3" to me.

 

[Kleck]

Fitzgerald Combine/Workout numbers (from NFL Draft Scout):

Combine:

6027 (6' 2 7/8")

225

4.63 40yd

Pitt's Pro-Day Workout 3/22/04:

6031 (6' 3 1/8")

221

40yd times: 4.48 - 4.51 (fastest 4.46, slowest 4.54)

Short Shuttle: 4.28

3-Cone: 6.94

From NFL.com - Pittsburgh's Pro Day:

Height: 6-3 1/8

Weight: 221 lbs.

40 times: 1st run 4.51, 2nd run 4.47

Bench: 20 reps

Vertical: 35"

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think there's a lot of current demand in the NFL for new starting RBs. I'm not saying teams don't need depth or COP backs, but there simply isn't a lot of starting jobs available right now.

NYG - Jacobs (Secure), will probably draft a RB late for depth should Ward leave

PHI - Westbrook (Etched in Stone), could use some depth

DAL - hell, pick one of Barber, Jones, or Choice. Dallas won't need a RB

WAS - Portis (Etched in Stone) Need to draft a RB now for depth.

Min - ADP (Etched in Stone)

Chi - Forte (Etched in Stone)

GB - Grant - (Tenuous, I don't think he's the long term answer)

DET- Smith (Secure) - Looked decent. I'm still not convinced however

CAR - Williams (Tenuous because of Stewart, regardless of how well he played in 2008)

ATL - Turner (Etched in Stone), may draft a RB late for depth next year. Norwood is a FA in 2010.

TB - Dunn / Graham / Caddy, There is a need for a starting RB here

NO - Pierre Thomas (Tenuous, but in a good way) - Yes, I said Thomas and not Bush. IMO Bush is not an every down back. Useful in the passing game, but not between the tackles guy

ARI - Edge / Hightower / Arrington (Tenuous at best) - This team definitely needs a better starting RB

SF - Gore (Secure, not etched in stone because of durability issues) This team needs to draft another RB for depth

SEA - Jones / Morris (Tenuous at best) - Look for Seattle to draft a RB by the 4th round

STL - Jackson (etched in Stone)

MIAi - Williams and Brown (Secure) - Miami doesn't need a RB, but if someone falls they could draft some depth late. RW isn't a spring chicken.

NE - Morris (Tenuous) - but having Jordan, Faulk, and Maroney coming back, NE wont' draft a RB. Throw in BJGE also.

NYJ - Jones (Semi-Secure), he will be 31 when the 2009 season starts, and even though I've never liked him, you can't argue his 2008 success. I like Leon Washington more. Still NYJ could draft for depth late.

BUF - Lynch (Secure), even though Jackson is a FA, I look for him to resign. Still BUF could draft for depth

PIT - Parker (Tenuous) - I look for Mendenhall to be the starter with Moore as COP in 2009. I believe Parker is a goner. The Steelers don't really need a RB.

BAL - McClain (Tenuous) - I look for Rice to be the starter and McGahee to get cut, even if he is cap friendly. Harbaugh simply doesn't like him. BAL doesn't need a RB, but could draft someone late for depth if they cut McGahee.

CIN - Sorry if Benson owners got their hopes up, but his 3.5 avg isn't exactly stuff made of legends. Plus he's a FA, so expect Cincy to take Wells in RD 1.

CLE - Lewis (Tenuous) - It's time to draft another RB in Cleveland. Can you believe Jamal Lewis isn't 30 yet? Oh but the milage shows. I like Jerome Harrison, but I think there are better options in the draft.

TEN - Johnson (Secure), and with White they don't need a RB.

Indy - Addai (Tenuous), as a Colts homer I'm not satisfied with our RB play at all. Maybe the Colts draft one this year. Addai / Rhodes isn't going to scare anyone, and Mike Hart wasn't that good before injury. Look for the Colts to draft a RB early if "their guy" falls to them.

HOU - Slaton (Secure) - but this team definitely needs to draft some RB depth, and Slaton's slight build makes that even more evident.

JAX - MJD (Etched in Stone), but Fred Taylor is probably finished in Jacksonville, and Greg Jones isn't much of a backup. There's Chaucey Washington, but he's a big question mark as well. I look for Jacksonville to draft for depth.

SD - LT2 (Etched in Stone, even with the recent injury) - Look for SD to draft for depth, especially if Sproles signes somewhere else (FA). Hester isn't the next John Riggins.

DEN - Maybe now they will draft a "real" RB instead of this plug and play mentality.

Oakland - McFadden (Secure) - He should take over as the feature back in 2009, and Fargas is cheap enough backup. I look for OAK to trade Bush.

KC - Johnson (Tenuous at best) - LJ wants out of KC, and he may get his wish. For this reason, and I'm not sure Charles is an every down back (but he could be), and Kolby Smith isn't that good, KC might be forced to draft a RB early.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't think there's a lot of current demand in the NFL for new starting RBs. I'm not saying teams don't need depth or COP backs, but there simply isn't a lot of starting jobs available right now.

Ok, you just listed 7. That's about on pace with most years. Not to mention that every year we see a couple teams draft a RB high that we didn't think needed one, and that's a lot of places for RBs to go.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think there's a lot of current demand in the NFL for new starting RBs. I'm not saying teams don't need depth or COP backs, but there simply isn't a lot of starting jobs available right now.

Ok, you just listed 7. That's about on pace with most years. Not to mention that every year we see a couple teams draft a RB high that we didn't think needed one, and that's a lot of places for RBs to go.

It may or may not be on pace with previous years, but there's also a lot of quality RB youth on teams right now. Not to say that teams don't need RBs, they do, but dynasty owners shouldn't expect a lot of RBs to step in and start right away, and maybe more so than other years.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

i voted for Shonn, as IMO he's the best total package this year at RB. RB's can produce more even with bad surrounding casts. Crabtree has to land with Seattle to have instant success from all the teams at the top of the draft.

if those comments gon't get flamed, this sure will but here goes........... if i actually had the #1pick and Mark Sanchez declared i could possibly opt to take him. his physical tools are on par(if not greater for the total package) for the other top QB's who've declared and he would likely be drafted to a better team(ala Big Ben falling to Steelers). he's been in pro style offense and got progressively better much like Stafford. he does have a injury history(as all USC QB's of late seem to have).

now tomorrow he'll prolly say he's coming back for his senior year