What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty start up, first pick overall pick (1 Viewer)

hammertoes

Footballguy
So I'm in a new dynasty startup. It's PPR (TE premium), IDP, 14 teams and 53 man rosters.

I pulled the first overall pick. Initially I was thinking Doug Martin. He's young, a top 5 RB right now, and in a 14 team league I feel like RB is going to thin out fast. But if you look year to year, of the top 10 RBs at the end of the year, usually only maybe 5 or so were top 10 the previous year.

That's a lot of turnover. I don't want my first pick to bust out (not that I think Martin will necessarily be a bust, but it could happen). I'm thinking with the first pick in a dynasty league, I want safe, guaranteed elite production. Now I'm thinking Calvin Johnson. He's a stone cold lock to be a top 5 receiver at worst. He's still just 27 and should have at least 5 great years left in him.

What's your opinion. You're on the clock. Who are you taking first overall???

 
The answer is Calvin Johnson and this thread has come up several times lately so you can probably search out some thoughts by looking at those.

 
Calvin is the popular choice obviously, for me I think I'd pick Julio though for a few reasons.

1) Matt Ryan: Better QB than Stafford, Romo and the Red Rocket. He'll also be Julio's QB for likely the rest of his career.

2) Roddy White: As Roddy gets older he'll become more and more an elite fantasy WR (even though he already clearly is).

I feel like Julio has all the talent to match what Calvin does every season. And you'll have him on your team as WR1 for the next decade. That's hard to argue with I think. I personally don't see the logic in this...

Don't draft a RB #1 overall cause they only really last about 5-6 years

Draft Calvin #1 he has a good 5 to 6 great years left in him

Why not just draft Richardson or Martin then and have a top 5 RB for the next 5-6 years instead of a Top 5 WR for the next 5-6 years?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Why not just draft Richardson or Martin then and have a top 5 RB for the next 5-6 years instead of a Top 5 WR for the next 5-6 years?
Because WR's can dominated for 10 years. At 27, not sure I would take Calvin. Maybe go with AJ Green or JJones if you go WR? But I would probably go with a RB. Not picking for 26 more picks, I would go RB just because by the time that run is done, Tier 1 and 2 are going to be pretty dry.

 
Why not just draft Richardson or Martin then and have a top 5 RB for the next 5-6 years instead of a Top 5 WR for the next 5-6 years?
Because WR's can dominated for 10 years. At 27, not sure I would take Calvin. Maybe go with AJ Green or JJones if you go WR? But I would probably go with a RB. Not picking for 26 more picks, I would go RB just because by the time that run is done, Tier 1 and 2 are going to be pretty dry.
I'd rather have 5-7 years of what the proven Calvin Johnson will give you than 8-9 years of somebody else.

There is a reason Calvin is in a tier unto himself; because he is that much better than the rest.

But IF someone wants to go based on age, I'd take Dez or Julio over most others. AJ Green gets a lot of love but I'd rather hitch my wagon to the Falcons or Cowboys, long-term than the Bengals.

Not taking a RB does indeed hurt if you have to wait to get one but two things are still true.

1) A house (fantasy team) stands best when built upon a soild foundation. These Wrs we are talking about are long-term foundations. You plug them in to your lineup and don't worry about it (or waste draft picks in the future) for a decade.

2) A RB is extremely more likely to be here today, gone tomorrow, for a variety of reasons. Compare teams that have had startups in the last several years and look at how many teams now have gaping RB holes because they thought they had that young stud and didn't (and probably compounded things by feeling secure in their young stud and didn't back it up accordingly with good enough depth).

The innate problem is, by definition almost, the way you justify taking a RB very early in a startup draft is because they are extremely young. You don't burn that pick on Frank Gore. But to be young means you have a very limited track record. So, you fall for the idea of grabbing a JSTEW or Steve Slaton or DMAC, etc, and you end up with busts, injuries, etc. On the other hand, if you have a WR that is a candidate for that pick then, by default, you can almost guarantee that they are universally regarded as an elite talent and they are young. Probably not 23 but probably 26 or so. But in the case of an elite WR, 26 or so means they probably have 7-8 more top years. Rbs seldom have that many years from day 1 when they enter the league.

 
I would go Calvin. Julio aint bad either but roddy will vulture some of the volume for at least the next 2 years.

IF you want to go the RB route, seeing as you have #1 and wont pick again until 28 and RBs will be thin by then, I would definitely go Dougy Fresh aka the Muscle Hamster

However, If you went Calvin theres a strong chance you could find a Lamar Miller, Levon Bell, David Wilson, Mcfadden at 28 which wouldnt be the worst thing in the world seeing as owning Calvin takes some slack off needing a powerhouse RB 1 and any of those 4 guys could be solid RB 1s for the next 3-5 years

 
I have AJ Green as my number one overall in dynasty, I don't know if many agree with me but that's who I like!

 
I can easily see you looking at RB22+ at the turn on the way back. Taking a WR at the top of the draft in such a deep league is asking for trouble.

 
No way I'm passing up a young, incredibly-talented, recently top-of-the-draft RB who just inherited the same Norv Turner who MADE Emmitt and LT2.

Dynasty start-up, it's TRich #1, then you can have a lively discussion about who is #2, as far as I'm concerned.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top