What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty Start-Up KAEPERNICK or Russell Wilson (1 Viewer)

jacobo_moses

Footballguy
Hey guys in a Dynasty League Start up (4pts Per Passing TD) Rest of Scoring (Standard)

Who would you rather have as your QB to build around in Dynasty and why?

COLIN KAEPERNICK QB

or

Rusell Willson QB

(I was thinking Capernick over R.Wilson before the Harvin trade to SEA) Now that Russell Wilson has Harvin to throw to I think its pretty close. Probably almost splitting hairs. So I want you guys to give your 2 cents please???!!.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

voiceofunreason

Footballguy
Hey guys in a Dynasty League Start up (4pts Per Passing TD) Rest of Scoring (Standard)

Who would you rather have as your QB to build around in Dynasty and why?

Colin Capernick QB

or

Rusell Willson QB

(I was thinking Capernick over R.Wilson before the Harvin trade to SEA) Now that Russell Wilson has Harvin to throw to I think its pretty close. Probably almost splitting hairs. So I want you guys to give your 2 cents please???!!.
Reccel Walcin
 

RavenLunatic

Footballguy
Kaepernick has an amazing ceiling but prefer steady feeling I get from Wilson. I am lucky because I have both in the only league I have either :-)

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Hey guys in a Dynasty League Start up (4pts Per Passing TD) Rest of Scoring (Standard)

Who would you rather have as your QB to build around in Dynasty and why?

Colin Capernick QB

or

Rusell Willson QB

(I was thinking Capernick over R.Wilson before the Harvin trade to SEA) Now that Russell Wilson has Harvin to throw to I think its pretty close. Probably almost splitting hairs. So I want you guys to give your 2 cents please???!!.
Not like you won't get roasted for the spelling enough, but how can you have never seen the guys name on paper, a jersey, or website? I guess if I just heard the name I would spell it that way, but that's one of the worst spelling mistakes I've ever seen haha. Agree with the other posters though, CK higher ceiling, Wilson is a safe pick though.

 

Bonka

Footballguy
Rothlasburger

But seriously, own both in different leagues and I'd have a hard time picking between them. Definitely have to like Wilson getting Harvin as a weapon though. I guess slight edge to Wilson.

 

NCPanthersFan

Footballguy
Comes down to TD points and bonus scoring. If it is straight up 4pts for pass TD - I am taking the QB that can put up points with their legs.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

jacobo_moses

Footballguy
Sorry for the spelling areas fellas. I fixed it. It was pretty late at night when I posted this. So wasn't thinking clearly. :bag:

It sounds like a lot of you are saying Wilson but you can't go wrong with Kap either. Thanks.

I think it might come down to which Coach will let his QB have a little more freedom to use his strengths and improvise. Who do you guys think that is?

 

Bruce Hammond

Footballguy
In my staff dynasty rankings dated 2/23 I had Wilson #10 and Kaepernick #11.

In my update this week I switched them, Kaep #10 and Wilson #11.

If I wake up in a different mood tomorrow I may switch them back. I see it pretty much as a coin flip right now.

Wilson had a full season and showed as the season went along that he gets it and is going to be a good one. Being a running QB helps, and adding Harvin has to help too. But, as long as Carroll is HC and they have a strong defense they won't abandon the run and start throwing for 300 yards a game regularly like some teams do. So, he's a low end dynasty QB1 (#10-12 or so) at least until I see evidence that causes me to move him out of that range.

Kaep as we all saw in the playoffs has potential to be great, Harbaugh hand picked him in the 2011 draft and he has I think a higher ceiling than Wilson if all goes well. But he only played part of a season and has potential to be more erratic than Wilson, with a lower floor. I don't think he'll have quite the completion % over time that Wilson will have. His team also has a stout defense and a coaching philosophy that emphasises ball control and won't toss it around like crazy either.

So, if you want maybe a higher ceiling but also a lower potential floor, go with Kaep. If you want a pretty dang good steady QB but likely without elite fantasy potential, go with Wilson.

Just one idiot's opinion.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
In my staff dynasty rankings dated 2/23 I had Wilson #10 and Kaepernick #11.

In my update this week I switched them, Kaep #10 and Wilson #11.

If I wake up in a different mood tomorrow I may switch them back. I see it pretty much as a coin flip right now.

Wilson had a full season and showed as the season went along that he gets it and is going to be a good one. Being a running QB helps, and adding Harvin has to help too. But, as long as Carroll is HC and they have a strong defense they won't abandon the run and start throwing for 300 yards a game regularly like some teams do. So, he's a low end dynasty QB1 (#10-12 or so) at least until I see evidence that causes me to move him out of that range.

Kaep as we all saw in the playoffs has potential to be great, Harbaugh hand picked him in the 2011 draft and he has I think a higher ceiling than Wilson if all goes well. But he only played part of a season and has potential to be more erratic than Wilson, with a lower floor. I don't think he'll have quite the completion % over time that Wilson will have. His team also has a stout defense and a coaching philosophy that emphasises ball control and won't toss it around like crazy either.So, if you want maybe a higher ceiling but also a lower potential floor, go with Kaep. If you want a pretty dang good steady QB but likely without elite fantasy potential, go with Wilson.

Just one idiot's opinion.
I think this is the thing with both players/teams. I agree that both of these players should likely be right next to each other in rankings and it is probably a waste of your researching/scouting time trying to pick one over the other. Overall, I think BOTH are overrated in dynasty due to the bolded part and the oddities that occurred last season for each team. In general, I would slide both down to wehre they sit in the 14 & 15 range as dynasty QBS.

In an inexact order, I would place them under:

-Rodgers

-Brees

-Newton

-Brady

-P.Manning

-RG III

-Stafford

-Romo

-Ryan

-Luck

-E.Manning

-Rothlisberger/Cutler/Rivers

-Rothlisberger/Cutler/Rivers

-Kaepernick & Wilson

For various reasons, most of them proven history, I think in the next 2-3 seasons, there is strong evidence to suggest that every person above these guys on this list will either straight up outperform them or it will be so close that it is not worth paying the price it will take to get either guy.

Don't get me wrong, I think both are bright young stars in the league and over the course of 5+ years, it may be different. However, so many things in the NFL change so quickly that it is usually not smart to predict things past a couple of seasons (if we were having this discussion 2 years ago, the guys at the bottom of this list in Big Ben, Cutler, and Rivers would have all been in the top 5-6 and guys like Vick and Bradford would have made the list...things change quickly.)

But at the end of the day, with the style of play of the teams and long term uncertainty, and unless you are in a 16 team league, I'm pretty sure it is not worth the price.

 

Chachi

Footballguy
'jacobo_moses said:
I think the deciding factor for these two is (Harvin). I know I might be putting too much stock into a decision in QB's with that. But Harvin is one of a handful of players that can take it to the house anytime anywhere. SF doesn't have a WR of Harvin's explosiveness or elusiveness in the open field. I think that is what pushes R.Wilson ahead just slightly.
I'm not sure I understand the logic here. If Harvin takes it to the house on a run or kickoff that nets Wilson zero. I think Crabtree equals Harvin for points that the QB will also get points from (passes). Then you have Boldin, Davis. Who on Seattle is there?
 

Chachi

Footballguy
'jacobo_moses said:
I'm talking about REC for Harvin. They also have Sidney Rice and Zach Miller who came on late in the season that will keep defenses honest. As will Lynch. I think you are overlooking this. Saying that Crabtree is on the same level as Harvin is like saying that Jeremy Lin is on the same playing field as Durant or Lebron. (Not so much.) :rolleyes:
Crabtree 1105/9Harvin 967/6Best receiving seasons to date. We are talking fantasy for the QBs. How do those numbers make Harvin great? Roll your eyes when your points are lacking facts. Crabtree with Kaep is $$$. Harvin hasn't even played with Wilson.
 

doowain

Footballguy
'Scooby1974 said:
'JPeso said:
I'll take the guy that kisses his biceps.
I'll take the guy that beats everyone else to the film room and sends his WR's texts on how to burn the opposing team's D.
Didn't CK take his teammates to Atlanta to work out and train a week after the Super Bowl? I remember reading that.
 

Chachi

Footballguy
I was thinking even but jacobi Moses arguments made me choose Kaep. He makes some great points about how Harvin will steal rushing and kickoff TDs and how Sidney Rice is a beast. LOL

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
'jacobo_moses said:
I'm talking about REC for Harvin. They also have Sidney Rice and Zach Miller who came on late in the season that will keep defenses honest. As will Lynch. I think you are overlooking this. Saying that Crabtree is on the same level as Harvin is like saying that Jeremy Lin is on the same playing field as Durant or Lebron. (Not so much.) :rolleyes:
Basketball players are on courts, not fields.
 

Chachi

Footballguy
'jacobo_moses said:
Having AP on your team and Ponder as your QB. Do you think that really reflects the best WR numbers Harvin can do? I didn't think so. One situation is not like the other at all.
Didn't Harvin have Favre? And Crabtree had Alex Smith?Yes, Favre was a gunslinging stat monster and Alex was a dink and dunk crap FF QB. You keep proving the opposite of your intentions.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Chachi

Footballguy
'jacobo_moses said:
Favre targeted Sidney Rice quote a bit that year in MIN too. My point is Lynch is not AP and Ponder is not Russell Wilson. I think the Wilson, Harvin situation is way better for FF for both parties more so then the Ponder, Harvin connection. Maybe I'm wrong and your right. But I really don't think that is the case.
Things really fly right over your head but I just realized you thought it was Capernick so I feel like its time for me to move onto conversations with other grade levels.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Over Wilson's last 11 games, he averaged 27 PPG. Pro-rated, he would have finished tied for 2nd with Aaron Rodgers.

I'm going with Wilson, though both are top 6-8 options, in my opinion.

 

bengalbuck

Footballguy
In my staff dynasty rankings dated 2/23 I had Wilson #10 and Kaepernick #11.

In my update this week I switched them, Kaep #10 and Wilson #11.

If I wake up in a different mood tomorrow I may switch them back. I see it pretty much as a coin flip right now.

Wilson had a full season and showed as the season went along that he gets it and is going to be a good one. Being a running QB helps, and adding Harvin has to help too. But, as long as Carroll is HC and they have a strong defense they won't abandon the run and start throwing for 300 yards a game regularly like some teams do. So, he's a low end dynasty QB1 (#10-12 or so) at least until I see evidence that causes me to move him out of that range.

Kaep as we all saw in the playoffs has potential to be great, Harbaugh hand picked him in the 2011 draft and he has I think a higher ceiling than Wilson if all goes well. But he only played part of a season and has potential to be more erratic than Wilson, with a lower floor. I don't think he'll have quite the completion % over time that Wilson will have. His team also has a stout defense and a coaching philosophy that emphasises ball control and won't toss it around like crazy either.So, if you want maybe a higher ceiling but also a lower potential floor, go with Kaep. If you want a pretty dang good steady QB but likely without elite fantasy potential, go with Wilson.

Just one idiot's opinion.
I think this is the thing with both players/teams. I agree that both of these players should likely be right next to each other in rankings and it is probably a waste of your researching/scouting time trying to pick one over the other. Overall, I think BOTH are overrated in dynasty due to the bolded part and the oddities that occurred last season for each team. In general, I would slide both down to wehre they sit in the 14 & 15 range as dynasty QBS.

In an inexact order, I would place them under:

-Rodgers

-Brees

-Newton

-Brady

-P.Manning

-RG III

-Stafford

-Romo

-Ryan

-Luck

-E.Manning

-Rothlisberger/Cutler/Rivers

-Rothlisberger/Cutler/Rivers

-Kaepernick & Wilson

For various reasons, most of them proven history, I think in the next 2-3 seasons, there is strong evidence to suggest that every person above these guys on this list will either straight up outperform them or it will be so close that it is not worth paying the price it will take to get either guy.

Don't get me wrong, I think both are bright young stars in the league and over the course of 5+ years, it may be different. However, so many things in the NFL change so quickly that it is usually not smart to predict things past a couple of seasons (if we were having this discussion 2 years ago, the guys at the bottom of this list in Big Ben, Cutler, and Rivers would have all been in the top 5-6 and guys like Vick and Bradford would have made the list...things change quickly.)

But at the end of the day, with the style of play of the teams and long term uncertainty, and unless you are in a 16 team league, I'm pretty sure it is not worth the price.
I respect your reasoning, but pretty strongly disagree with where you have them. Especially with regard to Cutler, Rivers and Rothlisberger. The points these guys put up running the ball is such a huge advantage that they don't have to throw for huge yardage and TD numbers. Especially in 4 point passing TD leagues. These guys are quite capable of running for 8 TDs per year which is equal to 12 passing TDs. So even if they only throw for 24 TDs, when you take into account the rushing TDs, it is the equivalent of 36 passing TDs. The math is similar when you look at the rushing vs. passing yardage scoring as well.
 

Patroclus

Footballguy
Not to get off topic but why just these two for your options. If it's a dynasty startup what about young guys like Stafford, Cam, RG3, Luck. All would be great options to build a dynasty around. Heck, even Rodgers is plenty young enough to build a Dynasty around and would probably be my first choice.

Are you targeting a later round for your QB pick?

 

jacobo_moses

Footballguy
Yes.

Not to get off topic but why just these two for your options. If it's a dynasty startup what about young guys like Stafford, Cam, RG3, Luck. All would be great options to build a dynasty around. Heck, even Rodgers is plenty young enough to build a Dynasty around and would probably be my first choice.Are you targeting a later round for your QB pick?
 

Patroclus

Footballguy
Yes.

Not to get off topic but why just these two for your options. If it's a dynasty startup what about young guys like Stafford, Cam, RG3, Luck. All would be great options to build a dynasty around. Heck, even Rodgers is plenty young enough to build a Dynasty around and would probably be my first choice.Are you targeting a later round for your QB pick?
In this case I'd go Wilson. I think Kaep will go earlier than Wilson. And at this point I think they are pretty equal for potential talent and situations.
 

SSOG

Moderator
Kaepernick has an amazing ceiling but prefer steady feeling I get from Wilson. I am lucky because I have both in the only league I have either :-)
I'm down with this. In a startup, you're going to have to draft either player to be your #1 guy, which makes Wilson the better pick. He's a guy I'm much more comfortable relying on over the next 5 years. In one of my leagues, though, I own Colin Kaepernick as my #2 behind Drew Brees, and I wouldn't trade him for Russell Wilson straight up. Since I'm not actively relying on him over the next season or two, I'd prefer Kaep's higher ceiling.None of this is to disparage Wilson's ceiling, though. Wilson's is plenty high, too- Harvin is an absolute monster who will relentlessly pad Wilson's passing totals, and Russell has some wheels of his own. And it's not to overstate Kaepernick's risk- he's the hand-picked successor, and the biggest risk is not that he isn't as good as we think he is, it's that San Fran's defense is better than we think it is and limits Kaepernick's opportunities. I think both qualify as very low-risk, high-ceiling prospects, I just think Wilson is slightly lower risk, and Kaepernick is slightly higher ceiling.
 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
'bengalbuck said:
These guys are quite capable of running for 8 TDs per year which is equal to 12 passing TDs. So even if they only throw for 24 TDs, when you take into account the rushing TDs, it is the equivalent of 36 passing TDs. The math is similar when you look at the rushing vs. passing yardage scoring as well.
No QB in NFL history has ever averaged 8 rushing TDs / season over a significant multi-year window. QB rushing TDs are HUGELY variable year over year, even for guys like Vick and Kordell, who really never developed as passers too much. Both CK and Wilson show great promise as passers IMO -- I'm guessing that they'll figure out it's better to dump the ball off and let someone else go head to head with NFL linebackers at the goal-line sooner rather than later.The rushing TDs are icing on the cake for ANY QB, IMO, and should be looked at more as "bonus value" as opposed to something steady you can count on year over year. Look at the year to year rushing TD totals for Young, Vick, Stewart, Culpepper, McNair, etc -- absolute ton of variance there. I'm much more confident projecting total TDs accounted for moving forward vs. a passing / rushing split.Also, re: the run-heavy systems, I'm personally not too worried. If both guys continue to develop into franchise QBs, the coaches will open things up. Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger weren't slinging it around like crazy as first year starters. Both coaching staffs are plenty smart enough to do whatever gives them the best chance to score points, and if you have a franchise QB in today's NFL that generally means throwing the ball. A lot.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
No QB in NFL history has ever averaged 8 rushing TDs / season over a significant multi-year window. QB rushing TDs are HUGELY variable year over year, even for guys like Vick and Kordell, who really never developed as passers too much. Both CK and Wilson show great promise as passers IMO -- I'm guessing that they'll figure out it's better to dump the ball off and let someone else go head to head with NFL linebackers at the goal-line sooner rather than later.The rushing TDs are icing on the cake for ANY QB, IMO, and should be looked at more as "bonus value" as opposed to something steady you can count on year over year. Look at the year to year rushing TD totals for Young, Vick, Stewart, Culpepper, McNair, etc -- absolute ton of variance there. I'm much more confident projecting total TDs accounted for moving forward vs. a passing / rushing split.
I personally disagree a bit, here. The running QB is being used differently that he was in the past. If teams keep running their QBs, theyll keep producing. What QBs did in the past has little bearing on what they will do in the future, in this regard. For example, Cam Newton is on pace to set the QB rushing TD record in his 4th season. It took Steve Young 15 years to set it. What was once special is going to become very regular. The reason for the variance is usage. If TDs totals are coming from QB sneaks and broken plays, they arent going to be steady. If TDs are coming from designed runs, there is no reason theyll be any more up-and-down than RB scoring totals. If the 49ers keep running Kaepernick as they have, hell keep scoring TDs. This should certainly be taken into consideration when investing in him. Hes not going to learn to dump the ball off on designed running plays. Perhaps teams will start using their QBs less as running threats. But I dont think its anything close to certain. Currently, it's trending the other way.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Ehhhhhh... maybe. Agree that the NFL has changed, but IMO it's more in the way that more teams are willing to look at non-traditional pocket QBs as opposed to the way that those QBs are actually used. As a Steelers homer who was unfortunately forced to watch years of Kordell Stewart, I can definitely say that he was used on designed QB runs a ton. Vick too. And IMO both of those guys were more dynamic running with the ball (as young players) than Kaep or Wilson. And FAR less effective as passers even as seasoned vets than both Kaep and Wilson were as rookies.

Cam might be an outlier because he is a horse - he's built more like a TE (or even a 70s DE) while RGIII, Wilson, and Kaepernick are somewhat more traditionally put together. I've used the Culpepper comp for Cam before (and pre-injury Culpepper is a damn flattering comparison for ANYONE) and think it's still valid.

Franchise QBs are just so damn valuable in today's NFL that IMO minimizing the beating that they take is pretty important. As a Pittsburgh fan, I cringe every time Ben is running around shrugging off tacklers. As we've seen the past two years, one hit can end the season for the entire team in a hurry. Let the RBs and TEs take the beating in close -- they're far more replaceable. Given the history, I'm not willing to buck the trend with a multiyear projection. But reasonable minds have room to disagree here...

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
But reasonable minds have room to disagree here...
Certainly. There isn't much of a track record. I do think Wilson's 3 TD game was a fluke, and won't project him to get 5 rushing TDs every year. But I just don't see anything fluky about Kaeps numbers. He's great with the ball in his hands, as well as smart about avoiding contact, and the team has been willing to call his name. Perhaps that could change, but my personal opinion is that we'll see more of the same next season.
 

DeaLerZ

Footballguy
I think they both have shown over the final few games of the year that they are very capable of putting up top 5 QB numbers in fantasy.. the additions at WR for both only prove this statement to be even more true... the way they both played in the playoffs shows how much they matured over the course of the season last year, and how much potential these guys have to change the way we look at NFL QB's. I recommend drafting them in your leagues.. not just because of their potential to be top 5 QB's, but their potential to have crazy good games like these from last year...

Colin Kaepernick 263 yds passing, 2 pass tds, 1 int, 183yds rushing, 2 rush tds.... 51 fantasy points vs Green Bay in playoffs

Russell Wilson 385 yds passing, 2 pass tds, 1 int, 60yds rushing, 1 rush td...... 37 fantasy points vs Atlanta in playoffs

Personally, I like guys that can win the week for me by themselves.. not to mention have a 2nd year player with huge potential is just exciting to have on your team to watch every week...

and what is all this talk about their defenses being such a bad thing??? First of all, from having both teams during the regular season last year as my fantasy starting defense, there were plenty of games where they allowed 20+ points (I stopped starting the 49ers except against favorable match-ups because they simply weren't as good last year as they were the year prior)...and from watching both teams in the playoffs they both have weaknesses....and not to mention having a defense that causes a lot of turnovers is a good thing for a QB's stats because it creates more potential scoring opportunities

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Black&Gold

Footballguy
I have both in my dynasty league. I'd like to trade Kaepernick and keep Wilson. Depending on the trade value though of course. I'd think I can get more for Kaepernick. I think Wilson is a definite top 5 QB for the next 10 years. Kaepernick could be that good but he could also not be.

 

werdnoynek

Footballguy
i see them as pretty even at this point - even ceilings and floors. i think they're both stand up guys on and off the field and have very promising careers ahead of them. as a wisconsinite, i'm partial to wilson, but i'd take either one in dynasty and would hold at this point unless the buyer is overpaying.

 

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
man this is close as it gets. I say flip a coin. Kaep has the better overall team, but Wilson's team is getting better. I'd feel great owning either one in a dynasty.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top