Concept Coop
Footballguy
Wiki: A sucker bet is a gambling wager in which the expected return is significantly lower than the wager(s).
Drafting QB in round 1: The field is simply too deep right now. Running QBs are changing the way we need to value QBs as a whole. 2012 produced 4 top 10-12 dynasty options under the age of 25 (I'm counting Kaep). What used to be rare, now isn't. The first tier is 1/4 of the starters in a standard size league. Those that miss out on the first tier will be "stuck" with Kaepernick, Wilson, Ryan, Stafford, Brady, Brees, Manning. And those that avoid the position in the first 6 rounds all together will still have Romo, Reothlisberger, and Eli to rely on, as well as some potential to pick through; Dalton, Locker, Tanny, Freeman, Geno, etc. You won't get enough of an advantage to justify taking one in the first round.
Paying WR1 prices for Randall Cobb: It is very possible that GB could give Cobb a shot to start next year, despite the fact that they gave the nod to James Jones this year. But it's not a given; his current price ignores the very real possibility that Cobb's 2012 season was above baseline, as he got starts due to two injuries.
Overvaluing WRs: The field is growing, getting more productive, and younger. As sexy as WRs are in dynasty formats - look at the additions over the last couple seasons: Cobb, Shorts, Blackmon, Nelson, Decker, Cruz, Jones, Green, Thomas, Crabtree...etc. The changes in NFL philosophy are making more WRs viable fantasy options. On top of that - more teams every year are supporting 2+ viable fantasy options. This trend will continue. Define your tiers and target the value at the end of the tiers, both in startups and in testing the market.
Undervaluing the RB: The opposite is happening to the RB position; fewer viable options as more teams are moving towards time-shares. Don't be afraid to pay market price for 26+ year old RB. Don't be afraid to pass up AJ Green and Julio Jones for Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. The value gap between the elite RB and the average RB is widening. The RB2 spot is one of the easiest positions to establish a weekly advantage over your league; there aren't 24 healthy, quality RBs on a weekly basis.
Neglecting communication lines: Get to know your league; all of them. Identify the guys willing to overpay for draft picks, and the guys willing to sell theirs cheap for immediate help. Understand what makes them tick. Ask them about their rosters. Ask them about your roster. Talk. Talk. Talk. Respond to offers, send counters, compromise here and there. Make friends. Be the guy that everyone is wiling to give a fair deal. There are countless potential deals that we'll never know existed if we don't talk.
Not understanding how often you're wrong: Adjust your value accordingly. Having a strong feeling is not justification for a bad trade or draft pick. Don't get me wrong, get your guys and trust your gut. But don't value your own opinion as fact. Don't ignore market value. And don't treat any draft pick or free agent as a best case scenario. If you think David Wilson is a top 5 dynasty RB next year, paying a top 5 price is still overpaying. If you think Mike Wallace lands in a better situation, it's still against your best interest to treat it as fact in your potential roster moves.
Happy to discus and explain mine, but would really like to hear others share. Also, my thoughts on Cobb are all over, so I don't want to go in depth on that one.
Drafting QB in round 1: The field is simply too deep right now. Running QBs are changing the way we need to value QBs as a whole. 2012 produced 4 top 10-12 dynasty options under the age of 25 (I'm counting Kaep). What used to be rare, now isn't. The first tier is 1/4 of the starters in a standard size league. Those that miss out on the first tier will be "stuck" with Kaepernick, Wilson, Ryan, Stafford, Brady, Brees, Manning. And those that avoid the position in the first 6 rounds all together will still have Romo, Reothlisberger, and Eli to rely on, as well as some potential to pick through; Dalton, Locker, Tanny, Freeman, Geno, etc. You won't get enough of an advantage to justify taking one in the first round.
Paying WR1 prices for Randall Cobb: It is very possible that GB could give Cobb a shot to start next year, despite the fact that they gave the nod to James Jones this year. But it's not a given; his current price ignores the very real possibility that Cobb's 2012 season was above baseline, as he got starts due to two injuries.
Overvaluing WRs: The field is growing, getting more productive, and younger. As sexy as WRs are in dynasty formats - look at the additions over the last couple seasons: Cobb, Shorts, Blackmon, Nelson, Decker, Cruz, Jones, Green, Thomas, Crabtree...etc. The changes in NFL philosophy are making more WRs viable fantasy options. On top of that - more teams every year are supporting 2+ viable fantasy options. This trend will continue. Define your tiers and target the value at the end of the tiers, both in startups and in testing the market.
Undervaluing the RB: The opposite is happening to the RB position; fewer viable options as more teams are moving towards time-shares. Don't be afraid to pay market price for 26+ year old RB. Don't be afraid to pass up AJ Green and Julio Jones for Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. The value gap between the elite RB and the average RB is widening. The RB2 spot is one of the easiest positions to establish a weekly advantage over your league; there aren't 24 healthy, quality RBs on a weekly basis.
Neglecting communication lines: Get to know your league; all of them. Identify the guys willing to overpay for draft picks, and the guys willing to sell theirs cheap for immediate help. Understand what makes them tick. Ask them about their rosters. Ask them about your roster. Talk. Talk. Talk. Respond to offers, send counters, compromise here and there. Make friends. Be the guy that everyone is wiling to give a fair deal. There are countless potential deals that we'll never know existed if we don't talk.
Not understanding how often you're wrong: Adjust your value accordingly. Having a strong feeling is not justification for a bad trade or draft pick. Don't get me wrong, get your guys and trust your gut. But don't value your own opinion as fact. Don't ignore market value. And don't treat any draft pick or free agent as a best case scenario. If you think David Wilson is a top 5 dynasty RB next year, paying a top 5 price is still overpaying. If you think Mike Wallace lands in a better situation, it's still against your best interest to treat it as fact in your potential roster moves.
Happy to discus and explain mine, but would really like to hear others share. Also, my thoughts on Cobb are all over, so I don't want to go in depth on that one.