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Dynasty Sucker Bets (1 Viewer)

Cobb was 14th for WR receptions, 22 in yards and tied for 12th in TDS...those are better than low end WR 2 numbers. I understand you think he's overrated but he was a high end #2 last year and that's with missing week 17 with a leg injury. He also had 132 rushing yards and a return TD that I'm not factoring in. He probably is slightly overrated for startup dynasty drafts but not to the extent where it should be labeled a sucker bet.
When I talk to SSOG, I use standard points, as that is all he plays. You're right; he was a high end WR2 in PPR formats; #16.
 
There are two possible takeaways here. The first is that outside receivers get the bulk of the TDs in GB. The second is that TDs are a tiny sample and will therefore frequently tend to cluster for reasons having nothing to do with anything but random chance.
I think there is a mix of both, there. But you do make a good point.
For me, I'm a lot less concerned with how Green Bay is ultimately going to decide to use him, and a lot more concerned with how MUCH GB is ultimately going to decide to use him.
They are very closely related. Despite how my claims have been taken, I actually like Cobb as a player. I drafted him in a startup (took place before the combine), before the buzz really got going. Again, I like the guy. I would be stoked to have him on my NFL team and would love to have him on my fantasy team if the price matched my expectations. But we are talking about a top 10-12 ranking for a guy who needed two injuries to produce low end WR2 numbers and was on the field less than 60% of the offensive snaps when everyone was healthy. That matters and will limit his production. They will get him the ball, as they should, but are 1-2 carries a game going to be enough? Will he start and play in 2 WR sets? All of them? We just don't know the answers to these questions, and if you are going to invest in him, based on the market I have seen, you are going to have to do so assuming we do have those answers. And Aaron Rodgers called James Jones the most talented WR on the roster a year or two ago. He's a nice guy. ;)
Cobb was a young guy surrounded by veterans so I'm not concerned about his lack of snaps. Now one of players standing in his way is gone (Jennings) and the Packers may even let Finley go. That they're even considering these things says a lot about how they feel about Cobb, IMO.
 
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Cobb was 14th for WR receptions, 22 in yards and tied for 12th in TDS...those are better than low end WR 2 numbers. I understand you think he's overrated but he was a high end #2 last year and that's with missing week 17 with a leg injury. He also had 132 rushing yards and a return TD that I'm not factoring in. He probably is slightly overrated for startup dynasty drafts but not to the extent where it should be labeled a sucker bet.
When I talk to SSOG, I use standard points, as that is all he plays. You're right; he was a high end WR2 in PPR formats; #16.
It's not ALL I play. Actually, I play in very few standard leagues- most of my leagues are yardage heavy (which strongly mitigates TD luck). I use standard when discussing on FBGs because it's the official scoring system of the site ("standard FBGs scoring"), and because all of the fantasy point totals on pfr use that scoring system. Anyway, speaking of our good friend pfr... According to PFR, Cobb was WR18 this year, but all 17 receivers in front of him played a full 16 games. Give him a replacement bump (~7 points to represent what you'd expect from a replacement level WR in the game Cobb missed), and give him credit for his return TD (which pfr doesn't count, but as I understand it, most leagues do), and Cobb is at wr14, wedged between Crabtree and Cruz. He was a high-end wr2 regardless of scoring system, pretty much identical to Cruz on a per-game basis.
 
It's not ALL I play. Actually, I play in very few standard leagues- most of my leagues are yardage heavy (which strongly mitigates TD luck). I use standard when discussing on FBGs because it's the official scoring system of the site ("standard FBGs scoring"), and because all of the fantasy point totals on pfr use that scoring system.
I simply meant non-PPR. Not that it would have mattered, after checking, I was wrong on that too. Cobb finished higher in non-PPR than he did in PPR. I wouldn't have guessed that, but the rushing yards help more than they do in PPR formats, I suppose, in the context of his positional ranking.
Anyway, speaking of our good friend pfr... According to PFR, Cobb was WR18 this year, but all 17 receivers in front of him played a full 16 games. Give him a replacement bump (~7 points to represent what you'd expect from a replacement level WR in the game Cobb missed), and give him credit for his return TD (which pfr doesn't count, but as I understand it, most leagues do), and Cobb is at wr14, wedged between Crabtree and Cruz. He was a high-end wr2 regardless of scoring system, pretty much identical to Cruz on a per-game basis.
Fair play. The guy was a top 15 WR in both formats. I shouldn't have assumed his fantasy production was much lower in standard formats, compared to other WRs. Now, of course, in standard formats he was worth less compared to other positions, but was steady within.
 

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