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Dynasty Superflex: When to cash in on QBs? (1 Viewer)

schleder

Footballguy
First time poster, first time dynasty-er, first time superflex-er, hope this question is acceptable for this board.

I recently completed the startup draft for a new dynasty league (roster below). I followed the mantra of "Draft for value, trade for need" and ended up with the only great QB room in my 12-team league. However, I also followed the mantra of "Draft assets that will appreciate in value" which means I really faded RBs and ended up with some glaring holes in my starting roster.

Obviously, I'd love to compete both now and in the future, but am not sure if this is feasible. The rest of my league seemed to check out and follow ADP after round 25ish, so I was able to get a lot of bench guys that I like. However, I was really shaken to see that my weekly scores are projected for ~10 pts/week fewer than almost every other team in the league. It seems like I should try to convert some of my QBs into starting RBs/WRs, but I'm not sure how to approach it. I'm also unsure whether I should try to compete this year, or just hold off and let my guys develop rather than selling them too early.

LEAGUE: 12-team dynasty superflex, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex/1SFlex + 20 bench spots. 4pt passing TDs, non-PPR. (Starting line-up in bold)

QBs: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones

RBs: Damien Harris, Chase Edmonds, Devin Singletary, Gio Bernard, Jamaal Williams, Ty Johnson, Tony Pollard, Eno Benjamin, Tony Jones

WRs: CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabe Davis, Marquez Callaway, Tyrell Williams, Quez Watkins, Josh Palmer, Mike Strachan

TEs: TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kylen Granson, Jacob Harris, Foster Moreau

QUESTION: Do I try to flip my QB surplus for viable starters now, and if so, which QBs should I be shipping out? Do I wait until midseason when Burrow/Tagovailoa/Jones are healthy and playing? Or do I sit on this treasure pile, knowing that my QB position will be set for 5-10 years while other teams are counting on combos like Jackson/Dalton, Rodgers/Newton/Lock, Cousins/Garoppolo/Trask?

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
First time poster, first time dynasty-er, first time superflex-er, hope this question is acceptable for this board.

I recently completed the startup draft for a new dynasty league (roster below). I followed the mantra of "Draft for value, trade for need" and ended up with the only great QB room in my 12-team league. However, I also followed the mantra of "Draft assets that will appreciate in value" which means I really faded RBs and ended up with some glaring holes in my starting roster.

Obviously, I'd love to compete both now and in the future, but am not sure if this is feasible. The rest of my league seemed to check out and follow ADP after round 25ish, so I was able to get a lot of bench guys that I like. However, I was really shaken to see that my weekly scores are projected for ~10 pts/week fewer than almost every other team in the league. It seems like I should try to convert some of my QBs into starting RBs/WRs, but I'm not sure how to approach it. I'm also unsure whether I should try to compete this year, or just hold off and let my guys develop rather than selling them too early.

LEAGUE: 12-team dynasty superflex, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex/1SFlex + 20 bench spots. 4pt passing TDs, non-PPR. (Starting line-up in bold)

QBs: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones

RBs: Damien Harris, Chase Edmonds, Devin Singletary, Gio Bernard, Jamaal Williams, Ty Johnson, Tony Pollard, Eno Benjamin, Tony Jones

WRs: CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabe Davis, Marquez Callaway, Tyrell Williams, Quez Watkins, Josh Palmer, Mike Strachan

TEs: TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kylen Granson, Jacob Harris, Foster Moreau

QUESTION: Do I try to flip my QB surplus for viable starters now, and if so, which QBs should I be shipping out? Do I wait until midseason when Burrow/Tagovailoa/Jones are healthy and playing? Or do I sit on this treasure pile, knowing that my QB position will be set for 5-10 years while other teams are counting on combos like Jackson/Dalton, Rodgers/Newton/Lock, Cousins/Garoppolo/Trask?
I don't understand why you took so many QBs.  Looks like you took 5 QBs with the first 7-8 picks, no wonder why your team is weak.  QBs are gold in this format, but you're handcuffed since your RBs, WR3 and flex are really weak.

So yes, I would look to trade, but remember that you don't have a ton of leverage, since the league knows that you're desperate for RBs.  Put all of your QBs on the block and see what you can get, but don't pull the trigger unless the deal really improves your lineup, and that player you acquire isn't too old.    You are not going to be competitive this year so be patient, work the WW hard, and likely you will have a high draft pick next year to start getting RBs and WRs.

Good luck.

 

schleder

Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback. Always good to get an outsider's perspective.

I don't understand why you took so many QBs.  Looks like you took 5 QBs with the first 7-8 picks, no wonder why your team is weak. 


Like I said, I think I took the "Draft for value, trade for need" motto a little too literally.

For context, I grabbed Prescott (10) and Wilson (15) with my first two overall, knowing that QBs are really valuable in a superflex. Was surprised to see Burrow fall to the 4th (39) since Sleeper ADP has him as a top-20 guy, but was excited to have a 3rd solid guy to cover for Prescott's injuries + Wilson's age. Then I went back to drafting young players that were had already shown they could play and I could hopefully rely on for a long time. Then Tagovailoa fell into the 7th (80) despite being listed as a top-60 guy, so I invested in him rather than grabbing a stopgap RB (Mike Davis and Raheem Mostert were the next two RBs off the board, followed by Michael Carter and Leonard Fournette, two committee guys). Finally, I grabbed Mac Jones in the 10th (111) ahead of Kenyan Drake, David Johnson, Zack Moss, Melvin Gordon, and James Conner. 

So yes, I probably overdid it with 5 QBs, but I'm not sure my roster is that much better if I had stopped at Prescott/Wilson/Burrow and then plugged in Carter/Moss (the only two RBs I was considering, plus maybe James Conner). 

you don't have a ton of leverage, since the league knows that you're desperate for RBs


Am I desperate, though? I'm new to dynasty, but I was thinking that I always have the option of saying "this isn't my year, but it's young and I can compete as soon as I plug in some rookie RBs." As a team that's mostly young players (really only Wilson, Bernard, Sanders, and maybe Tyrell Williams being on/near the downslope of their careers), I feel like if I'm not competitive this year either way, that might be a signal for me to just hang on to my QBs, suck for a year, and then try to find temporary solutions at RB. I got an offer of Mixon + 2022 2nd for Burrow, but if I'm not competing this season, I feel like next year rolls around and suddenly Mixon is on his last legs while Burrow is potentially a top-10 asset. So I'm wondering if I'm missing something or overthinking it since I'm leaning towards NOT trading away my young QBs.

 

Gally

Footballguy
For context, I grabbed Prescott (10) and Wilson (15) with my first two overall, knowing that QBs are really valuable in a superflex. Was surprised to see Burrow fall to the 4th (39) since Sleeper ADP has him as a top-20 guy, but was excited to have a 3rd solid guy to cover for Prescott's injuries + Wilson's age. Then I went back to drafting young players that were had already shown they could play and I could hopefully rely on for a long time. Then Tagovailoa fell into the 7th (80) despite being listed as a top-60 guy, so I invested in him rather than grabbing a stopgap RB (Mike Davis and Raheem Mostert were the next two RBs off the board, followed by Michael Carter and Leonard Fournette, two committee guys). Finally, I grabbed Mac Jones in the 10th (111) ahead of Kenyan Drake, David Johnson, Zack Moss, Melvin Gordon, and James Conner. 

So yes, I probably overdid it with 5 QBs, but I'm not sure my roster is that much better if I had stopped at Prescott/Wilson/Burrow and then plugged in Carter/Moss (the only two RBs I was considering, plus maybe James Conner). 


The bold is not necessarily true.  This is dependent upon the scoring system and how QB's measure up on the top 50 scorers for the year.  Everyone hears SF and thinks QB's must be played in that spot but if your scoring doesn't support that then QB's aren't the end all be all.  If you are the only guy that went QB heavy early this may be an instance where the QB scoring limits them a bit so they aren't the defacto play for the SF lineup spot.    In addition, that is part of feeling the draft out and seeing where people are going.  It seems like you were always the first guy grabbing QB's for all the QB runs.  Generally it's better to be at the top of a run in the middle and make sure you get a couple guys from your first couple tiers and then go depth from there.  

At this point you only really need 3 QB's with it being two of Dak/Wilson/Burrow and then a third in the Tua/Jones level developmental type.  You could keep both Tua & Jones to kind of hedge a bit but you really don't need a 4th QB with two of Dak/Wilson/Burrow in your stable because that 3rd guy is bye week fill in only.   I would look to trade two of your QB's and have no problem moving one of Dak/Wilson/Burrow as one of the two you trade.  

As far as the Mixon/2nd offer I would counter with Mixon and a 1st and see what he says.  I would do that move.  

 

Gally

Footballguy
Am I desperate, though? I'm new to dynasty, but I was thinking that I always have the option of saying "this isn't my year, but it's young and I can compete as soon as I plug in some rookie RBs." As a team that's mostly young players (really only Wilson, Bernard, Sanders, and maybe Tyrell Williams being on/near the downslope of their careers), I feel like if I'm not competitive this year either way, that might be a signal for me to just hang on to my QBs, suck for a year, and then try to find temporary solutions at RB. I got an offer of Mixon + 2022 2nd for Burrow, but if I'm not competing this season, I feel like next year rolls around and suddenly Mixon is on his last legs while Burrow is potentially a top-10 asset. So I'm wondering if I'm missing something or overthinking it since I'm leaning towards NOT trading away my young QBs.


Be careful of this mentality.  Many dynasty owners make the mistake of playing for "next year" and get into a vicious circle where you are never competing and always building for the future.  For me, I always look at 2 yr windows because too many things change beyond that (coaching change, injuries, free agency, etc).  You can compete this year with one or two moves.  Don't be so quick to punt on a season.  Now if you get into the season and injuries happen or underperforming and you are sitting at 0-6 then you can pivot mid season and start making moves for the following year.  You can get some great value as contending teams get needs as the season goes along.  

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Be careful of this mentality.  Many dynasty owners make the mistake of playing for "next year" and get into a vicious circle where you are never competing and always building for the future.  For me, I always look at 2 yr windows because too many things change beyond that (coaching change, injuries, free agency, etc).  You can compete this year with one or two moves.  Don't be so quick to punt on a season.  Now if you get into the season and injuries happen or underperforming and you are sitting at 0-6 then you can pivot mid season and start making moves for the following year.  You can get some great value as contending teams get needs as the season goes along.  
Great advice.    The season hasn't started yet, so while I feel that your team likely won't be contending, it doesn't take much to change that.  Mixon would be a nice piece to add.  I would do what Gally suggested. 

 

schleder

Footballguy
Thanks, @Gally! This sort of specific suggestion is exactly what I was looking for.

This is dependent upon the scoring system and how QB's measure up on the top 50 scorers for the year.  Everyone hears SF and thinks QB's must be played in that spot but if your scoring doesn't support that then QB's aren't the end all be all. If you are the only guy that went QB heavy early this may be an instance where the QB scoring limits them a bit so they aren't the defacto play for the SF lineup spot
Good callout, but there aren't any special scoring settings for QBs, so I think this is more the case of all my leaguemates still being in redraft mode (we've done redraft together for 5+ years, this is our first try at dynasty). It's possible that Sleeper as a whole is overvaluing QBs but it's not a scoring issue -- more likely, it's the rest of my league undervaluing QBs. Or at least, that's what I'm telling myself 🤞

At this point you only really need 3 QB's with it being two of Dak/Wilson/Burrow and then a third in the Tua/Jones level developmental type. You could keep both Tua & Jones to kind of hedge a bit but you really don't need a 4th QB with two of Dak/Wilson/Burrow in your stable because that 3rd guy is bye week fill in only.
This is the advice I needed -- I was probably overestimating the need for QB depth in dynasty, thinking that I'd need 3 good QBs MINIMUM. But now I've gotten multiple responses suggesting that 3 QBs is a much more reasonable approach and that hoarding 4-5 QBs in case of injuries/retirements/etc is actually the unorthodox move.

I was just worried that it would be really hard to find a replacement QB for the future (e.g., in three years, if Wilson retires and I'm left with only Dak/Tua, I'd be scraping the bottom of the barrel for a QB3 and I'd be done if one of them get injured). But I'll stick with two established guy and one steady young guy, and won't be afraid to cash in one stud and one backup for help (and then compete with the other 11 teams as we all try to draft/uncover the next crop of QB studs).

 
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Gally

Footballguy
Thanks, @Gally! This sort of specific suggestion is exactly what I was looking for.

Good callout, but there aren't any special scoring settings for QBs, so I think this is more the case of all my leaguemates still being in redraft mode (we've done redraft together for 5+ years, this is our first try at dynasty). It's possible that Sleeper as a whole is overvaluing QBs but it's not a scoring issue -- more likely, it's the rest of my league undervaluing QBs. Or at least, that's what I'm telling myself 🤞


This wasn't exactly my point.  Have you checked scoring across positions based on the scoring system?  I am not saying that there are special (or not special QB scoring rules) just that they may not score high enough compared to other positions to warrant being the auto SF play.    It's always a good idea to look at the historical (yes I know it's a start up but you should be able to see how players scored last year with your scoring system on the site to compare across positions.  I find that very helpful to gage value for SF lineup spot situations.   Your QB's just might not score that high?......or your league just doesn't value QB's very high...hahaha

 

Gally

Footballguy
This is the advice I needed -- I was probably overestimating the need for QB depth in dynasty, thinking that I'd need 3 good QBs MINIMUM. But now I've gotten multiple responses suggesting that 3 QBs is a much more reasonable approach and that hoarding QBs in case of injuries/retirements/etc is actually the unorthodox move.

I was just worried that it would be really hard to find a replacement QB for the future (e.g., in three years, if Wilson retires and I'm left with only Dak/Tua, I'd be scraping the bottom of the barrel for a QB3 and I'd be done if one of them get injured). But I'll stick with two established guy and one steady young guy, and won't be afraid to cash in one stud and one backup for help (and then compete with the other 11 teams as we all try to draft/uncover the next crop of QB studs).


I will say as the league progresses it will become very hard to get QB's and their trade price will go up quite a bit (provided QB's are the preferred SF lineup choice by scoring).  Rookie QB's will be critical as time goes on but you still really only need a cycle of solid QB's with upcoming rookies and you have a great start with that as outlined previously.   Whether your roster 3 or 4 QB's is really a function of the QB's you have on the roster.  If you have a couple solid vets and a promising rookie that should be good enough provided the rookie develops.  If you miss on a few young QB's is when you can get into a problem for the future as the position dries up over time.  

 

schleder

Footballguy
It's always a good idea to look at the historical (yes I know it's a start up but you should be able to see how players scored last year with your scoring system on the site to compare across positions.  I find that very helpful to gage value for SF lineup spot situations.
Oh, I see what you mean now. Yes, QBs are definitely slated to score more points than other positions. Prescott and Wilson are slated for about 25 PPG (both did more than that last year, so I think these forecasts are factoring in injuries for Dak and a slow second half for Wilson). Burrow and Tua are slated for 15-20 PPG each.

It's a non-PPR league, so nobody outside of the first 3 rounds is even in the ballpark of those numbers (McCaffrey is the only RB/WR to break 20 projected PPG, and there's only about 10 RBs/WRs knocking on the door of 15). So I'm feeling pretty safe that a starting QB is the heavy favorite for the SF slot whenever possible, but it felt good to go in and confirm that for myself!

 

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