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Dynasty: The Anti-All-You Team (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Make a team of guys you like least, relative to their market value. Q-M.Ryan - 2012 will be closer to career high than baseline.R-A.Peterson - Turning 28 next month. 2,000 yards is not the baseline. In my opinion, he's the best RB since LT, at the very least. But I personally won't invest a 1st round startup pick in a 28 YO RB. R-R.Matthews W-R.CobbW-A.Johnson - He'll be 32 next season and has had some trouble staying healthy. Every single game missed from here on out is a big portion of his remaining career/value.W-P.Harvin - Just don't see top 5-6 dynasty WR. T-D.Pitta F-D.Wilson - I like Wilson and think he has a chance to be a very good NFL player. But his current price is far too risky for me. A list of a lot of good players. Just a group being valued more than I value them.

 
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Make a team of guys you like least, relative to their market value. Q-M.Ryan - 2012 will be closer to career high than baseline.R-A.Peterson - Turning 28 next month. 2,000 yards is not the baseline. In my opinion, he's the best RB since LT, at the very least. But I personally won't invest a 1st round startup pick in a 28 YO RB. R-R.Matthews W-R.CobbW-A.Johnson - He'll be 32 next season and has had some trouble staying healthy. Every single game missed from here on out is a big portion of his remaining career/value.W-P.Harvin - Just don't see top 5-6 dynasty WR. T-D.Pitta F-D.Wilson - I like Wilson and think he has a chance to be a very good NFL player. But his current price is far too risky for me. A list of a lot of good players. Just a group being valued more than I value them.
Agree with most .... But AP ... For those drafting in a 3-year window I think AP is one of the safest RB bets in the league. He's not human.Harvin .... he's being drafted in the 6th-8th WR range in start-ups. I would definitely take him at that price in the mid to late second round.How is Pitta overrated? I got him in the 9th round in a startup as the ~TE8. Given the up tempo nature that the Ravens will be employing, the fact that Flacco has trust in him, and that Boldin will likely be gone (whom was the only person stealing seam routes from Pitta), I think that's a fine price to pay for him. If anyone is expecting Witten-like production they will be disappointed, but I think you can do far worse for a tight end at that stage in the draft. I'll take him over the Greshams of the FF world any day.
 
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Agree with most .... But AP ... For those drafting in a 3-year window I think AP is one of the safest RB bets in the league. He's not human.Harvin .... he's being drafted in the 6th-8th WR range in start-ups. I would definitely take him at that price in the mid to late second round.How is Pitta overrated? I got him in the 9th round in a startup as the ~TE8. Given the up tempo nature that the Ravens will be employing, the fact that Flacco has trust in him, and that Boldin will likely be gone (whom was the only person stealing seam routes from Pitta), I think that's a fine price to pay for him. If anyone is expecting Witten-like production they will be disappointed, but I think you can do far worse for a tight end at that stage in the draft.
Peterson is a monster, and if you play with a 3 year window in mind - I think the pick makes sense. I don't like Harvin as much as the first 2 tiers: (Calvin, Green / Dez, Julio, Thomas) and don't like him more than the next group by enough to justify the investment. Pitta in the 9th, or as TE9 is fine. I've seen him go in the 5th once, and in the TE5-6 range. Not a fan of him there. I think he has value and could go on to improve over his 2012 numbers as the Ravens rely more on Flacco. But he has too much "shiny new" value, after having a breakout season.
 
QB: RG III - injury risk too high for where I'd have to take himRB: Ryan Mathews - injury risk, underperformer, et alRB: DeMarco Murray - can't seem to stay healthy for any stretch of timeWR: Andre Johnson - same as your comment aboveWR: Torrey Smith - too little consistency for my tasteWR: Hakeem Nicks - love his talent but was injury-riddled 2012 the new norm for him?TE: Vernon Davis - feels like deja vu; whimpers in regular season, roars in playoffsFL: Bernard Pierce - are the reports of Ray Rice's fantasy demise premature?

 
QB- Tom BradyRB- Arian FosterRB- David WilsonWR- Randall CobbWR- Eric DeckerWR- Antonio BrownTE- Vernon DavisDef- BaltimoreFlex- Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Darren Sproles, Mikel LeShoure, Coby Fleener

 
Last year my "anti-value" team of:Drew BreesAdrian PetersonTrent RichardsonRoddy WhiteDez BryantWon a championship, disagree with this thread. Depending where they fall, I'm targetting guys like Wilson and Mathews.

 
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Last year my "anti-value" team of:Drew BreesAdrian PetersonTrent RichardsonRoddy WhiteDez BryantWon a championship, disagree with this thread.
The thread is only asking what players you value less then their current market value. Not sure what there is to disagree with.
 
QB: Robert GriffinRB:Chris JohnsonRB: Darren McFaddenWR: Hakeem NicksWR: Kenny BrittWR: Jeremy MaclinTE: Brandon PettigrewETA: I have once loved all of them... they all broke my heart in one way or another. other than Griffin, that dude is the real deal, just not buying with how significant his injury is

 
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QB Tom BradyRB Chris JohnsonRB Steven RidleyWR Andre JohnsonWR Miles AustinWR Kenny BrittTE Jermichael FinleyWary of drafting these at current ADP too: QB: Matt Stafford and RG IIIRB: Demarco Murray and J.StewartWR: Mike Wallace and Jordy Nelson

 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
QB: Robert GriffinRB:Chris JohnsonRB: Darren McFaddenWR: Hakeem NicksWR: Kenny BrittWR: Jeremy MaclinTE: Brandon PettigrewETA: I have once loved all of them... they all broke my heart in one way or another. other than Griffin, that dude is the real deal, just not buying with how significant his injury is
 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
QB: Robert GriffinRB:Chris JohnsonRB: Darren McFaddenWR: Hakeem NicksWR: Kenny BrittWR: Jeremy MaclinTE: Brandon PettigrewETA: I have once loved all of them... they all broke my heart in one way or another. other than Griffin, that dude is the real deal, just not buying with how significant his injury is
I am still buying Maclin but agree with everyone else
 
Like the idea.QB: Matt Stafford; inaccurate, fragile, great situation (no RB, great WRs, huge pass/run split) can only get worse.RB: Jamaal Charles; I'm almost certainly wrong here, but I can't imagine watching ADP, Rice, Martin, Richardson, Spiller, Foster, McCoy and Lynch go off the board, and feeling like I "need" Charles. I just don't trust his long-term durability or short-term situation enough to invest that much -- I'll wait instead and roll the dice on MJD, McFadden, Matthews, etc.RB: Stevan Ridley; not convinced he's so much more talented than BJGE that he'll be RB1 in NE for his career.WRs: Marques Colston, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings; same story for all 3 -- often injured and I'm anticipating a steep decline in role/production even when healthy. Weak list, but I think the other elite-ish WRs are pretty stable commodities.TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such. Investing in any of Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, etc. at full price will always seem crazy if Scott Chandlers and Brandon Myerses are readily available on waivers. Good example of where VBD analysis can't really anticipate the diversification benefits of a productive platoon. FLEX: Chris Johnson; even at bargain prices, inconsistency loses head-to-head matchups. Until proven wrong, I'll look forward to the week I'm playing his owner.

 
QB - Kaepernick .... he went at the 3.03 in a $300 recent dynasty start-up where all TDs 6 points. I couldn't believe it. This is a month after the other great running QB in the league blew out his knee rookie season. That kind of investment for a running QB who has yet to refine the pocket passing skills required to ultimately be successful in the NFL is mind-boggling to me.QB - Rodgers ... best QB in the game, no doubt, but there are few 1-QB 12-team leagues that have the settings where I would consider taking ANY quarterback in the first round, especially when true game changers at their position (see Calvin, Gronk, Peterson) are available. RB- WilsonRB- Spiller ... both these guys are home-run hitters but neither team has shown that they want to commit 20-25 touches to one guy every game.WR - Crabtree ... he's not an elite talent and defenses are going to scheme to take away the easy passes he's been getting after they figure out Kaepernick. He's going as high as WR15 in start-ups which I think is nuts.

 
TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such.
I don't really see them getting injured more often than WRs, but that is my guess, as I haven't done the research. Dez, Nicks, Johnson, Harvin, Maclin, Austin, Jackson, just off the top of my head. Plenty of WRs get hurt and miss time.
 
TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such. Investing in any of Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, etc. at full price will always seem crazy if Scott Chandlers and Brandon Myerses are readily available on waivers. Good example of where VBD analysis can't really anticipate the diversification benefits of a productive platoon.
I did a data search on the top 10 TEs in career fantasy points scored (yes, a flawed list, but I just wanted to do a quick look):Gonzo missed 2 games in 16 seasons, and played 14+ every year. Sharpe missed 20 games in 14 seasons, and played in 14+ eleven times. Gates missed 13 games in 10 years, and played in 14+ eight times. Witten missed 1 game in 10 years and played in 14+ every year. Ozzie Newsome never missed a game in 13 years. Jackie Smith missed 10 games in 16 years, and played in 14+ twelve times... in the era of 14-game seasons (14 years of 12+ games). Kellen Winslow Sr. missed 24 games in 9 years, and played in 14+ (or the whole season, in the event of a strike) six times. Jerry Smith missed 14 games in 13 years, and played in 12+ games twelve times (14-game seasons). Ben Coates missed 2 games in 10 years and played 14+ games every season. Wesley Walls missed 28 games in 14 years and played 14+ games twelve times. Total = 114 missed games in 125 seasons, 111 seasons with 2 or fewer missed games (vs 14 seasons with 3+)Obviously the methodology has flaws (players who missed too many games to injury wouldn't make that list). The next three guys were Heap (46 missed games in 12 years), Shockey (24 missed games in 10 years, 6 years of 14+), and Ditka (10 missed games in 12 years), for whatever that's worth. And after that, you have Clark, Casper, and Christensen. I just got tired of looking.
 
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TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such.
I don't really see them getting injured more often than WRs, but that is my guess, as I haven't done the research. Dez, Nicks, Johnson, Harvin, Maclin, Austin, Jackson, just off the top of my head. Plenty of WRs get hurt and miss time.Although to be fair, an advantage at WR is that one player can back up 3-4 different positions, so it makes more sense to invest in quality depth and you're less likely to be screwed if just one of your WRs is missing time.
 
TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such.
I don't really see them getting injured more often than WRs, but that is my guess, as I haven't done the research. Dez, Nicks, Johnson, Harvin, Maclin, Austin, Jackson, just off the top of my head. Plenty of WRs get hurt and miss time.
Although to be fair, an advantage at WR is that one player can back up 3-4 different positions, so it makes more sense to invest in quality depth and you're less likely to be screwed if just one of your WRs is missing time.Very true. But I think Gronk/Graham are two of the biggest advantages you can have over your league, in most traditional formats. And I'd say Witten is great value right now. Not that it's wrong - I just disagree that TE should be avoided right now.
 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb? RB - Martin, HunterWR - Cobb, Crabtree (they're okay but not for the top 10 prices they are as)TE - Pettigrew (guy is awful)

 
TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such. Investing in any of Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, etc. at full price will always seem crazy if Scott Chandlers and Brandon Myerses are readily available on waivers. Good example of where VBD analysis can't really anticipate the diversification benefits of a productive platoon.
I did a data search on the top 10 TEs in career fantasy points scored (yes, a flawed list, but I just wanted to do a quick look):Gonzo missed 2 games in 16 seasons, and played 14+ every year.

Sharpe missed 20 games in 14 seasons, and played in 14+ eleven times.

Gates missed 13 games in 10 years, and played in 14+ eight times.

Witten missed 1 game in 10 years and played in 14+ every year.

Ozzie Newsome never missed a game in 13 years.

Jackie Smith missed 10 games in 16 years, and played in 14+ twelve times... in the era of 14-game seasons (14 years of 12+ games).

Kellen Winslow Sr. missed 24 games in 9 years, and played in 14+ (or the whole season, in the event of a strike) six times.

Jerry Smith missed 14 games in 13 years, and played in 12+ games twelve times (14-game seasons).

Ben Coates missed 2 games in 10 years and played 14+ games every season.

Wesley Walls missed 28 games in 14 years and played 14+ games twelve times.

Total = 114 missed games in 125 seasons, 111 seasons with 2 or fewer missed games (vs 14 seasons with 3+)

Obviously the methodology has flaws (players who missed too many games to injury wouldn't make that list). The next three guys were Heap (46 missed games in 12 years), Shockey (24 missed games in 10 years, 6 years of 14+), and Ditka (10 missed games in 12 years), for whatever that's worth. And after that, you have Clark, Casper, and Christensen. I just got tired of looking.

Great Shark Pool stuff. FWIW, I do believe TE injury-proneness to be a recent phenomenon, caused by bigger/faster LBs and greater concussion sensitivity, and as you concede, your data is quite auto-correlated as injury prone guys like Clark, Heap, Wesley Walls or Chris Cooley don't crack your list because they got hurt. But overall, point taken, thanks.My gut still tells me these guys get more seriously injured than WRs, play hurt/appear on the injury report more often, and have significantly shorter career expectations on average.

This recent TE fad has proven injury risks like Graham (missed only 1 game but left another, was Q'ble in at least 2 more, and had at least 2 concussions in 2012), Gronk (missed 7 games this year, plus the 2012 SB), and Hernandez (8 games in 2yrs, plus an early exit in a 9th) all going at or before their injury-prone WR brothers Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant. That reflects a misunderstanding of how long these guys are likely to stay productive and how likely they are to get significantly displaced at their position by emerging talent.

Going from having the 2nd-best TE to having the 9th-best TE is much easier and much worse than going from 8th-best WR to the 20th-best WR. If the cost is the same, the TE is the riskier investment.

Yes, their current production makes them as valuable as their WR cohorts. Yes WRs get hurt too. I'm saying I'll take the WR side of the bet over the long run and let someone else have TEs.

 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb? RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense. Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF. If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league. As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.
 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb? RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense. Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF. If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league. As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.From what I saw, Wilson isn't much of a pocket passer. Like it or not the old thing about him being too short is true and despite team success, it was pretty apparent. He's a young Doug Flutie. Most people already have him in the top 10 right now. That's way too high to me and he's an easy sell imo. His top wr had a bit over 700 yards. The hawks aren't great but that shows his limitations and also how short a leash he was on most of the year. If they open things up, I would expect him to struggle. They ran the ball a ton and protected him. He'd have got destroyed playing for the colts.Martin put up huge numbers in 2 games. Before that, if you remember, there was talk of getting Blount more involved because he just wasn't making any big plays at all. He was right about 4.0 ypc. After those 2 games was the same thing. I don't see an elite player, which is how he's being valued. He does not measure up to the talent level of Lesean McCoy, for example, who he's only half a year younger than. He looks like a volume guy dependent on getting a ton of touches. I want someone a little better for a top 5 rb. I drafted him in a couple leagues and was happy to trade him for a top 5 rb straight up after the season. Reminds me of Mike Williams after his rookie year. I sold him everywhere to because he relied on being targeted a ton without doing much per target.
 
QB- Rodgers- my #1 QB, but with the way QB scoring is going why take him in the first round of a startup?RB- David Wilson- his rise to perceived fantasy stardom is insane for a guy who cries in his first game, lol. Just way too high for me right nowRB- Sproles- I predicted he would score less than 200 in PPR last year and he did (thanks to missing some time), and I think it only gets worseRB- Mcfadden- like him, but going way higher than I would feel comfortable taking him (early 2nd I have seen, ugh)WR- Fitzgerald- cant stomach taking a 30 year old WR so high with the worst QBs ever, even if they draft someone still gonna be a problem for a whileWR- Cobb- 2nd round pick in startups I have seen?? I just dont see it. He isnt that type of player to me. WR- Ty Hilton- kinda guy that strikes me as someone who will fall fast as soon as they draft someoneTE- Gresham- I see him ranked top 5 for TE a lot, which I guess is ok, but the difference from guys you can get a few rounds later to me isnt much. You likely can not get all 8 of these players in the first 8 rounds if you did a draft, and if you did, this IMO is not a team that will win anything. It COULD, but like I said, this is a 1st and a few 2nd rounders. A team with players taken in those spots should look a LOT better than this would.

 
QB - Brady is getting older and with the influx of young talent at the position I'll take one of the young guys a few rounds later.RB - Ray Rice - a lot of mileage the last couple of years plus Pierce looks like the real deal and will take some touches from Rice. Pierce actually looked like the better back in the playoffs. Rice is still a great back but I don't see him as a top 10 RB in 2013RB - Ryan Matthews...never liked him and he's always hurt and on an underachieving team. No thanks.WR - Andre Johnson - great talent but getting older and TD numbers typically are low for a guy perceived as a top 5 guy.WR - Shorts/Blackmon - I just cant trust a Jaguar WR. Thwy both showed flashes last year but that is a pathetic franchise.TE - Gronk - ill probably catch flack for this as Gronk had an amazing run in 2011 but I just can't see a late 1st/early 2nd adp on him. He had injury problems in college and has a major ankle injury and now a broken arm. Guy is a beast who plays hard but with his style of play I see him breaking down faster than others. Like him a lot more in a redraft vs dynasty.

 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb?

RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense.

Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF.

If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league.

As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.
From what I saw, Wilson isn't much of a pocket passer. Like it or not the old thing about him being too short is true and despite team success, it was pretty apparent. He's a young Doug Flutie. Most people already have him in the top 10 right now. That's way too high to me and he's an easy sell imo. His top wr had a bit over 700 yards. The hawks aren't great but that shows his limitations and also how short a leash he was on most of the year. If they open things up, I would expect him to struggle. They ran the ball a ton and protected him. He'd have got destroyed playing for the colts.Russell Wilson stats inside and outside the pocket, weeks 1-18
 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb?

RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense.

Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF.

If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league.

As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.
From what I saw, Wilson isn't much of a pocket passer. Like it or not the old thing about him being too short is true and despite team success, it was pretty apparent. He's a young Doug Flutie. Most people already have him in the top 10 right now. That's way too high to me and he's an easy sell imo. His top wr had a bit over 700 yards. The hawks aren't great but that shows his limitations and also how short a leash he was on most of the year. If they open things up, I would expect him to struggle. They ran the ball a ton and protected him. He'd have got destroyed playing for the colts.Martin put up huge numbers in 2 games. Before that, if you remember, there was talk of getting Blount more involved because he just wasn't making any big plays at all. He was right about 4.0 ypc. After those 2 games was the same thing. I don't see an elite player, which is how he's being valued. He does not measure up to the talent level of Lesean McCoy, for example, who he's only half a year younger than. He looks like a volume guy dependent on getting a ton of touches. I want someone a little better for a top 5 rb. I drafted him in a couple leagues and was happy to trade him for a top 5 rb straight up after the season. Reminds me of Mike Williams after his rookie year. I sold him everywhere to because he relied on being targeted a ton without doing much per target.

If you are just talking about height, how bout he is just a young Drew Brees? (Not saying Wilson is the next Brees). Brees is only one inch taller than Wilson, so while he was struggling at San Diego, you could have made the same statement about Brees and pointed to Flutie as proof that shorter QBs can't make it.
 
Wilson is a terrific football player, but he is on a run first team, in a tough division, and his receiving core is nothing special. He's dragged down by situation and that's why I view him as a 2nd tier QB1 and not in the elite tier.

 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb?

RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense.

Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF.

If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league.

As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.
From what I saw, Wilson isn't much of a pocket passer. Like it or not the old thing about him being too short is true and despite team success, it was pretty apparent. He's a young Doug Flutie. Most people already have him in the top 10 right now. That's way too high to me and he's an easy sell imo. His top wr had a bit over 700 yards. The hawks aren't great but that shows his limitations and also how short a leash he was on most of the year. If they open things up, I would expect him to struggle. They ran the ball a ton and protected him. He'd have got destroyed playing for the colts.Russell Wilson stats inside and outside the pocket, weeks 1-18nice work
 
QB - Wilson, by a lot. Decent qb but a good long-term fantasy qb?

RB - Martin
I actually think Wilson is underrated. What he did as a rookie is pretty amazing. 64.1% completions. 7.93 YPA. 26 TDs against just 10 INTs. He also appears to be a total class act with great character. By all accounts a true football junkie who takes his job seriously. When you talk about the hot dynasty QBs right now (RG3/Luck/Newton/Kaep), he's the guy I like the most from a value-per-cost standpoint. I think people who are leery of him will look at the low ppg numbers and think "game manager." Big mistake, IMO. Most rookie QBs are game managers. That's because most rookie QBs are bad, and if you let them throw 550-600 times in a season, you're going to lose all of your games and get fired. Unless you have Andrew Luck on your team, you don't put your rookie QB out there and make him throw it 600+ times in a season. You limit his responsibility and try to win games with your run game and your defense.

Look at how Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan began their careers. They were very similar to Wilson. They didn't throw the ball much at first, but when they did throw, they were effective. And as the years passed, their responsibility increased. They started throwing the ball more and their FF value spiked. I fully expect a similar career arc from Wilson. As he continues to improve and gain maturity, he will gradually become the centerpiece of Seattle's offense. And when he starts passing the ball 500-600 times per season, he's going to become one of the top scoring QBs in FF.

If you have the chance to get Russell Wilson for the price of a mid-level QB1, I would leap at the opportunity. At the absolute worst you're getting a perennial fringe top 10 type like Ryan or Roethlisberger. If he continues to improve his efficiency metrics (possible) and he starts throwing the ball more (likely), he will be one of the most productive passers in the league.

As for Doug Martin, he had more total yards in his rookie season than any RB since Edgerrin James. More than LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson. He is a complete three down back who can run with speed, quickness, and power. He has a 225 pound frame, yet also ranked among the NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs alongside smaller guys like Spiller and Charles. He's one of the best receiving backs to come along in years. A guy like this is gold, IMO. He can do everything and he has more tread on the tires than other versatile guys like Rice, Lynch, Forte, and MJD. Given how hard it is to find a RB this good and how few of them there are below the age of 25 in the NFL, I think you can make a decent case that this is the most valuable player in FF. Even if he regresses from his rookie numbers, you're still looking at several years of Lynch/Forte kind of production.
From what I saw, Wilson isn't much of a pocket passer. Like it or not the old thing about him being too short is true and despite team success, it was pretty apparent. He's a young Doug Flutie. Most people already have him in the top 10 right now. That's way too high to me and he's an easy sell imo. His top wr had a bit over 700 yards. The hawks aren't great but that shows his limitations and also how short a leash he was on most of the year. If they open things up, I would expect him to struggle. They ran the ball a ton and protected him. He'd have got destroyed playing for the colts.
Russell Wilson stats inside and outside the pocket, weeks 1-18nice workTypical of the insightful comments that the voice provides.
 
QB - Kaepernick .... he went at the 3.03 in a $300 recent dynasty start-up where all TDs 6 points. I couldn't believe it. This is a month after the other great running QB in the league blew out his knee rookie season. That kind of investment for a running QB who has yet to refine the pocket passing skills required to ultimately be successful in the NFL is mind-boggling to me.QB - Rodgers ... best QB in the game, no doubt, but there are few 1-QB 12-team leagues that have the settings where I would consider taking ANY quarterback in the first round, especially when true game changers at their position (see Calvin, Gronk, Peterson) are available.
I could be wrong but 3.03 for Kaepernick seems reasonable to me and 1st round pick for Rodgers seems like a safe pick. Kaepernick plays behind one the best Olines in the league. He not getting exposed to hits like Michael Vick. IMO a quality QB is a better long term investment than most other positions. I am curious to know where the other QBs were drafted in your dynasty start-up.
 
TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such. Investing in any of Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, etc. at full price will always seem crazy if Scott Chandlers and Brandon Myerses are readily available on waivers. Good example of where VBD analysis can't really anticipate the diversification benefits of a productive platoon.
I did a data search on the top 10 TEs in career fantasy points scored (yes, a flawed list, but I just wanted to do a quick look):Gonzo missed 2 games in 16 seasons, and played 14+ every year. Sharpe missed 20 games in 14 seasons, and played in 14+ eleven times. Gates missed 13 games in 10 years, and played in 14+ eight times. Witten missed 1 game in 10 years and played in 14+ every year. Ozzie Newsome never missed a game in 13 years. Jackie Smith missed 10 games in 16 years, and played in 14+ twelve times... in the era of 14-game seasons (14 years of 12+ games). Kellen Winslow Sr. missed 24 games in 9 years, and played in 14+ (or the whole season, in the event of a strike) six times. Jerry Smith missed 14 games in 13 years, and played in 12+ games twelve times (14-game seasons). Ben Coates missed 2 games in 10 years and played 14+ games every season. Wesley Walls missed 28 games in 14 years and played 14+ games twelve times. Total = 114 missed games in 125 seasons, 111 seasons with 2 or fewer missed games (vs 14 seasons with 3+)Obviously the methodology has flaws (players who missed too many games to injury wouldn't make that list). The next three guys were Heap (46 missed games in 12 years), Shockey (24 missed games in 10 years, 6 years of 14+), and Ditka (10 missed games in 12 years), for whatever that's worth. And after that, you have Clark, Casper, and Christensen. I just got tired of looking.Missed games is the wrong way to look at it. TEs can start every game and not have any fantasy relevance if not heavily involved in the passing game. I would consider top 10 at their position fantasy relevant for a TE. Anything past that and you get into platoon territory and waiver wire starters. Looking at the list of the ten highest scoring TEs of all time, I count 6 seasons of finishing in the top 10 at their position for half of the players listed. So logically if you get 6 to 7 seasons of good production out of a TE you have one of the best players to ever play the position. Compare that to the top 10 RBs of all time, a notoriously fragile position . Even taking top 10 finishes only the RBs are slightly more durable. Considering RBs have fantasy relevance well past top 10 and it is not even close.Now Tony Gonzalez is the clear outlier with 15 seasons in the top 10. He is undoubtedly the best fantasy TE ever. I wonder how much Tony Gonzalez is skewing the perceived value of dynasty TEs. Jim Brown finished as the top scoring fantasy RB all 9 years he was in the league. I think the chances of seeing another Jim Brown in the next 20 years are about the same as seeing another Tony Gonzalez.
 
QB: Andy DaltonRB: Stevan Ridley (I'd rather take Vereen 7-10 rounds later)RB: Matt ForteWR: Miles Austin WR: Jordy NelsonFL: BJGE (kind of player I probably wouldn't draft anywhere. Limited starter upside but too productive to cut)TE: Martellus Bennett

 
Wilson is a terrific football player, but he is on a run first team, in a tough division, and his receiving core is nothing special. He's dragged down by situation and that's why I view him as a 2nd tier QB1 and not in the elite tier.
This actually just helps prove that he is in the top tier. I'll take his dragged down stats all day.
 
Wilson is a terrific football player, but he is on a run first team, in a tough division, and his receiving core is nothing special. He's dragged down by situation and that's why I view him as a 2nd tier QB1 and not in the elite tier.
This actually just helps prove that he is in the top tier. I'll take his dragged down stats all day.I'd agree if I thought his situation was changing, but I don't see that happening in the near-term. For that reason, although he's an excellent QB, I don't see him scoring with the Rodgers, Cam, Brees tier.
 
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QB: Stafford - more uncertainty than other guys in this tierRB: Lynch - once you predict someone's demise, it's hard not to still forecast that demiseRB: Morris - situation dependentWR: Marshall - at 28, coming off career highs in all 3 categoriesWR: Garcon - situation dependentWR: Antonio Brown - highest ADP of those I think is at most a WR3TE: Vernon Davis - value inflated by SB after being invisible most of Kap's startsBenchQB: Freeman - even if his upside is Ben lite, that looks pretty meh right nowRB: Reggie Bush - don't even like him in DETRB: DuJuan Harris - overvaluedWR: TY Hilton - Antonio BrownWR: Amendola - don't see him sustaining anythingWR: Sanders - will target the guy they draft insteadTE: Pettigrew - pedestrian, didn't even take advantage of Lions losing WR2/WR3

 

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