TEs: All TEs. Would love to see numbers on how often the elite guys miss games. Gonzo aside, these guys do not have the durability of WRs and should not be valued as such. Investing in any of Gronk, Gates, Graham, Hernandez, etc. at full price will always seem crazy if Scott Chandlers and Brandon Myerses are readily available on waivers. Good example of where VBD analysis can't really anticipate the diversification benefits of a productive platoon.
I did a data search on the top 10 TEs in career fantasy points scored (yes, a flawed list, but I just wanted to do a quick look):Gonzo missed 2 games in 16 seasons, and played 14+ every year.
Sharpe missed 20 games in 14 seasons, and played in 14+ eleven times.
Gates missed 13 games in 10 years, and played in 14+ eight times.
Witten missed 1 game in 10 years and played in 14+ every year.
Ozzie Newsome never missed a game in 13 years.
Jackie Smith missed 10 games in 16 years, and played in 14+ twelve times... in the era of 14-game seasons (14 years of 12+ games).
Kellen Winslow Sr. missed 24 games in 9 years, and played in 14+ (or the whole season, in the event of a strike) six times.
Jerry Smith missed 14 games in 13 years, and played in 12+ games twelve times (14-game seasons).
Ben Coates missed 2 games in 10 years and played 14+ games every season.
Wesley Walls missed 28 games in 14 years and played 14+ games twelve times.
Total = 114 missed games in 125 seasons, 111 seasons with 2 or fewer missed games (vs 14 seasons with 3+)
Obviously the methodology has flaws (players who missed too many games to injury wouldn't make that list). The next three guys were Heap (46 missed games in 12 years), Shockey (24 missed games in 10 years, 6 years of 14+), and Ditka (10 missed games in 12 years), for whatever that's worth. And after that, you have Clark, Casper, and Christensen. I just got tired of looking.
Great Shark Pool stuff. FWIW, I do believe TE injury-proneness to be a recent phenomenon, caused by bigger/faster LBs and greater concussion sensitivity, and as you concede, your data is quite auto-correlated as injury prone guys like Clark, Heap, Wesley Walls or Chris Cooley don't crack your list
because they got hurt. But overall, point taken, thanks.My gut still tells me these guys get more seriously injured than WRs, play hurt/appear on the injury report more often, and have significantly shorter career expectations on average.
This recent TE fad has proven injury risks like Graham (missed only 1 game but left another, was Q'ble in at least 2 more, and had at least 2 concussions in 2012), Gronk (missed 7 games this year, plus the 2012 SB), and Hernandez (8 games in 2yrs, plus an early exit in a 9th) all going at or before their injury-prone WR brothers Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant. That reflects a misunderstanding of how long these guys are likely to stay productive and how likely they are to get significantly displaced at their position by emerging talent.
Going from having the 2nd-best TE to having the 9th-best TE is much easier and much worse than going from 8th-best WR to the 20th-best WR. If the cost is the same, the TE is the riskier investment.
Yes, their current production makes them as valuable as their WR cohorts. Yes WRs get hurt too. I'm saying I'll take the WR side of the bet over the long run and let someone else have TEs.