[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (5 Viewers)

[packersfan]

Sucks this happened on my bench since I could've really used those points this week but I'm off the charts giddy about what he can do the rest of the way. The Packers' run D has been up and down (Forte killed them; Charles had a great all-around game while Lynch and Hyde got snuffed) but I think Gurley is a Must Start in all leagues going forward until we see otherwise. Kid is dripping with talent.

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

Here's some porn for y'all..

Todd-Gurley-highlights

 

[ImTheScientist]

It pains me that he is on the Rams. But I love that dude.

He will be a 1st round pick in redraft next year.

 

[Gottabesweet]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

 

[RBM]

He'll be a first round pick next year.

Yea, he could be RB1. All of the great backs are getting old. Though guys like Lacy and Hill have had some success in the NFL/FF, I really don't view them as being on par with the past generation of standouts like Peterson/LT/Lynch. I don't watch those guys run and think they're perennial Pro Bowl locks. I feel like it's been a while since we've seen that kind of back come through. Trent Richardson was supposed to be that guy, but it didn't happen. Doug Martin hasn't been consistent enough. I guess you could say LeVeon Bell, but I don't know if I buy it just yet.

Gurley, on the other hand, looks like he can be that kind of talent. I am surprised that he didn't weigh more at the combine because he looks huge on the field. I guess maybe it's just that all the weight is in his legs. He's a tree trunk on wheels out there.

You should have taken Gurley at 1.1 over White in the HyperActive 3 dynasty draft and that's not because White got hurt. Especially since you took Cooper at 1.3. You could have had your choice of White or Cooper at 1.3 and still had Gurley.

What does this have to do with anything?

Anyway, I knew you were a Cooper fanboy and thought you would take him at #2, leaving Gurley for me at #3.

Didn't work out that way, but I was still happy to get the two receivers. I value WR > RB in that format.

Wait you had the 1 and the 3 and you didn't just go Gurley 1 and whichever wr was left at 3? Wow.

 

[EBF]

He'll be a first round pick next year.

Yea, he could be RB1. All of the great backs are getting old. Though guys like Lacy and Hill have had some success in the NFL/FF, I really don't view them as being on par with the past generation of standouts like Peterson/LT/Lynch. I don't watch those guys run and think they're perennial Pro Bowl locks. I feel like it's been a while since we've seen that kind of back come through. Trent Richardson was supposed to be that guy, but it didn't happen. Doug Martin hasn't been consistent enough. I guess you could say LeVeon Bell, but I don't know if I buy it just yet.

Gurley, on the other hand, looks like he can be that kind of talent. I am surprised that he didn't weigh more at the combine because he looks huge on the field. I guess maybe it's just that all the weight is in his legs. He's a tree trunk on wheels out there.

You should have taken Gurley at 1.1 over White in the HyperActive 3 dynasty draft and that's not because White got hurt. Especially since you took Cooper at 1.3. You could have had your choice of White or Cooper at 1.3 and still had Gurley.

What does this have to do with anything?

Anyway, I knew you were a Cooper fanboy and thought you would take him at #2, leaving Gurley for me at #3.

Didn't work out that way, but I was still happy to get the two receivers. I value WR > RB in that format.

Wait you had the 1 and the 3 and you didn't just go Gurley 1 and whichever wr was left at 3? Wow.

12 teams and only 1 mandatory starting RB diminishes the value of the position somewhat. Bear in mind that both Cooper and White were picked ahead of Gurley and regarded as elite prospects in their own right. Cooper is already showing why. Jury is still out on White because he has been injured, but he was the top guy on my list and I usually roll with my gut if two guys have similar draft slots. Anyway, JU probably would've grabbed Cooper at #2 if I had gone Gurley at #1, so either way I was ending up with White + 1. As good as Gurley looks, I can't say that White + Gurley looks better than White + Cooper right now in that format. Cooper is also bossing already and should be around for a long time.

 

[BigTex]

Here's some porn for y'all..

Todd-Gurley-highlights

LMAO, on the screen play Gurley knocked #21 on his ### and he slid 5 yards down field and you can hear the pop that Gurley laid on him.

A MUST SEE!

Tex

 

[amnesiac]

similar situation for me, i had the 1.2. other guy had 1.1 and 1.3.

assumed he was going to take Gurley at 1 and i was happy to take Cooper #2 and refused to trade up.

he took Cooper at 1 and i took Gurley at 2.

he took Gordon at 3.

i know, cool story. but i think the knee injury caused more of these situations than were assumed.

 

[Koya]

similar situation for me, i had the 1.2. other guy had 1.1 and 1.3.

assumed he was going to take Gurley at 1 and i was happy to take Cooper #2 and refused to trade up.

he took Cooper at 1 and i took Gurley at 2.

he took Gordon at 3.

i know, cool story. but i think the knee injury caused more of these situations than were assumed.

Just a guess, but I'd imagine that the other guy took the WR and then would still get one of those two backs. Otherwise he might end up with 2RBs.

Can't say that example tells us that much, considering.

 

[amnesiac]

similar situation for me, i had the 1.2. other guy had 1.1 and 1.3.

assumed he was going to take Gurley at 1 and i was happy to take Cooper #2 and refused to trade up.

he took Cooper at 1 and i took Gurley at 2.

he took Gordon at 3.

i know, cool story. but i think the knee injury caused more of these situations than were assumed.

Just a guess, but I'd imagine that the other guy took the WR and then would still get one of those two backs. Otherwise he might end up with 2RBs.

Can't say that example tells us that much, considering.

imo, Gurley >>>> Gordon, so if i were him i would've gone Gurley plus whichever WR was left, but to each their own, of course.

 

[spider321]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

 

[cstu]

What's his going rate now? AP, Bell, and a 2016 1st? lol

I gave up Lynch and CJA before the season started. He's the #2 dynasty RB behind Bell IMO so it would cost you a ton to get him now.

Someone gave you Gurley in a dynasty for those guys? oof

At the time Gurley hadn't been on the field and both Lynch and CJA were considered top 10 dynasty backs.

 

[Gottabesweet]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

 

[RBM]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

Ha stop

 

[Sebowski]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

I wouldn't even look at your next offer if that was your first.

 

[Andrew74]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

 

[kittenmittens]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

I wouldn't even look at your next offer if that was your first.

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

He had a nice debut, but I need to see that the Rams can figure out how to use him correctly and that (is used in situations where) he catches passes before we say he's more valuable than top 10 young WR in PPR Dynasty.

The Rams are such a Jeckyl and Hyde team (and have been for a few years) that I am hesitant to go all in - not because of talent of course but because of situation.

RBs also tend to have big swings in value... anyways, love Gurley but I think the hype machine is overheating a bit?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think the Rams have been such a Jeckyl & Hyde largely because of the trash they've had to trot out at QB for the most part which is making Foles seem Montanaesque.

What I would say though is that even as a Gurley owner, if there is a time to trade him...that time is now. Redraft or dynasty. I'm not advocating for this mind you, but it's almost like the anticipation and realization of what Gurley could be blew up like a powder keg, and those who drafted upside of an RB1 have their evidence in the form of Gurley's 4th quarter. He's the story of the week and this is the time when you can get owners to overpay. And if you play with any UGA fans/alumni, you may even be able to score their firstborn.

 

[kittenmittens]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think the Rams have been such a Jeckyl & Hyde largely because of the trash they've had to trot out at QB for the most part which is making Foles seem Montanaesque.

What I would say though is that even as a Gurley owner, if there is a time to trade him...that time is now. Redraft or dynasty. I'm not advocating for this mind you, but it's almost like the anticipation and realization of what Gurley could be blew up like a powder keg, and those who drafted upside of an RB1 have their evidence in the form of Gurley's 4th quarter. He's the story of the week and this is the time when you can get owners to overpay. And if you play with any UGA fans/alumni, you may even be able to score their firstborn.

I guess if you could get someone to offer the moon then Gurley could be had by some owners, in general it is foolish to trade Gurley in a dynasty league.

 

[drizzle]

As long as we are talking trades someone offered me Carson Palmer for him after romo got hurt. After I said no chance in hell he offered Drew brees and then I threw my computer off a cliff.

 

[spider321]

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

Please join my league!!!

 

[Banger]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

and Tomlinson went to a perenial dumpster fire in SD without a QB....how have Peterson's QB's been? How about Jamal Charles?

when you have a guy with that kind of ability, especially in dynasty, you have to think long term because his QB in 2 years likely won't be on the roster. Also, they have a great defense so he'll consistently have good game scripts where he can get consistent touches and his coach happens to be one of the few remaining head coaches that loves to have a horse and ride him as opposed to the committee approach that has watered down the RB market.

I just don't understand anyone really moving this guy after watching his clips from last week unless you are severely overpaid. What isn't captured in those clips is the game situation and the fact that the Rams needed to get 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock and when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball and he was still running for 10+ yards a clip on the road vs. a very good defense. It was extremely impressive to watch...Not to mention that this was his 2nd career game coming off a knee injury 10-11 months ago.

 

[Madden Curse]

I think the Rams have been such a Jeckyl & Hyde largely because of the trash they've had to trot out at QB for the most part which is making Foles seem Montanaesque.

What I would say though is that even as a Gurley owner, if there is a time to trade him...that time is now. Redraft or dynasty. I'm not advocating for this mind you, but it's almost like the anticipation and realization of what Gurley could be blew up like a powder keg, and those who drafted upside of an RB1 have their evidence in the form of Gurley's 4th quarter. He's the story of the week and this is the time when you can get owners to overpay. And if you play with any UGA fans/alumni, you may even be able to score their firstborn.

I guess if you could get someone to offer the moon then Gurley could be had by some owners, in general it is foolish to trade Gurley in a dynasty league.

Agreed, if someone wants to sell the farm for Gurley and you can still end up solid at RB, why not. But as a Gurley owner I'm certainly not floating him out there, I drafted him to be a centerpiece for my team, and the burden of wowing me into giving him up is on the offeror.

 

[BradtheAg]

Traded him away for Mike Evans before the draft. Regretting that a bit now, especially with how bad CJ Anderson (my planned RB1 for this season) has been.

 

[Madden Curse]

What's he going for in Dynasty?

The other guy's entire team, plus his next five 1st round picks.

Was thinking about offering Anderson/Hilman, Jeffrey and a 1st

I wouldn't even look at your next offer if that was your first.

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

I can probably find 10+ guys I think have the potential to match Jeffrey's production, but there are few youngish RBs with the upside of Gurley. As usual there's a risk/reward consideration as well as consideration of what the rest of your roster looks like, but I struggle to think of a situation where I'd trade away Gurley straight up for Jeffrey, and tossing in a future 1st wouldn't sway me at all. If I was extremely weak at WR and could remain strong at RB after losing Gurley, that might be the only situation I would trade away Gurley, but I'd still be difficult to convince.

I dunno, make a poll and prove one of us right - if dynasty managers were drafting today and both players were healthy, would they prefer Gurley or Jeffrey?

 

[Gottabesweet]

I was declined but he said it was a good offer.

Offered Hillman/Anderson/Jeffrey/Adams and a Top 5 Pick next year.

I'm fairly deep and was hoping I could have gotten him.

 

[Bob Magaw]

The Rams didn't take Gurley #10 overall to use him sparingly, take a cue from Fisher's usage of Eddie George (only Gurley is far more explosive). He wants to run until the defense pukes. Than run some more.

I don't see his dynasty value being buffeted much by the fickle winds of week to week performance. The cat is out of the bag. Gurley is the NFL's next great young RB, heir apparent to Peterson. In his first game with more than 6 carries, I think he is tied for #5 (146?) on the Rams most rushing yards in a game for a rookie RB list (HOFer Bettis #1 with 200+ yards, and HOFer Dickerson with two games in his league record 1,800+ yard season). And 100+ yards were in the fourth quarter, once the OL and Gurley got in a groove. Who knows what is possible if they can string an entire game together, and he knocks some more rust off?

 

[kittenmittens]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

and Tomlinson went to a perenial dumpster fire in SD without a QB....how have Peterson's QB's been? How about Jamal Charles?

when you have a guy with that kind of ability, especially in dynasty, you have to think long term because his QB in 2 years likely won't be on the roster. Also, they have a great defense so he'll consistently have good game scripts where he can get consistent touches and his coach happens to be one of the few remaining head coaches that loves to have a horse and ride him as opposed to the committee approach that has watered down the RB market.

I just don't understand anyone really moving this guy after watching his clips from last week unless you are severely overpaid. What isn't captured in those clips is the game situation and the fact that the Rams needed to get 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock and when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball and he was still running for 10+ yards a clip on the road vs. a very good defense. It was extremely impressive to watch...Not to mention that this was his 2nd career game coming off a knee injury 10-11 months ago.

I would argue that the narrative that the Rams have a great defense who will produce consistent favorable game scripts hasn't shown to have been the case with the Rams' actual game scripts.

What I need to see is the game script like Week 2 against the Redskins where the Rams are down multiple scores in the first half. How do they use Gurley in this situation? They ran the ball a total of 13 times that game (1 being a Foles and 4 to Austin) but they threw it to Cunningham 6 times for 4 catches. Is Gurley always in the game when the Rams are in a 2:00 drill (like he should be) and need to pass the ball, or are they going to bring in a 3rd down back?

I trust Fischer almost a little too much to feed carries to his RBs... the problem is that everything about the Rams is inconsistent and he can't always do that. I can't "assume rational coaching" with Jeff Fischer and if Gurley is not used as a passing game weapon (in PPR leagues) he becomes more of a rich man's Jeremy Hill type of fantasy player to me instead of a Leveon Bell type of fantasy player.

IMO Gurley's value is not solidified up there with Leveon Bell (in PPR leagues) until Fischer uses him as the every down back in a losing game script and uses him in the passing game.

 

[kittenmittens]

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

Please join my league!!!

This is how trades are made!

Two of my foundational Dynasty (PPR) philosophies are behind this:

1. WRs are in general more valuable in Dynasty than RBs (more consistent, longer career, more predictable, etc.)

2. I want players who play in good offensive situations. A smaller slice of a big pie is often bigger than a big slice of a small pie. (not that the Bears are good, but Cutler is Favre Jr. and forces it to Jeffery which is good for fantasy)

Honestly I probably wouldn't trade Gurley straight up for Jeffrey right NOW, I'm just acknowledging that there is a significant risk that the Rams get clobbered by the Packers in Lambeau this week and we see Benny Cunningham in the game getting catches and Gurley not racking up PPR points. I think after one good game I'd be overreacting by moving Gurley ahead of Jeffrey in my Dynasty rankings. If the Rams are down by 35 in the first quarter and Gurley catches 10 passes that game then he absolutely moves ahead of Jeffrey and almost everyone, but I also didn't already forget that the Rams offense got absolutely stuffed by the mediocre at best Steelers defense in Week 3.

Edit: forgot to add that part of Jeffrey sounding bad right now is also that he's injured. If he had just had big games would it be different? Do you all think Gurley >>> Hopkins as well?

 

[Banger]

The Rams didn't take Gurley #10 overall to use him sparingly, take a cue from Fisher's usage of Eddie George (only Gurley is far more explosive). He wants to run until the defense pukes. Than run some more.

I don't see his dynasty value being buffeted much by the fickle winds of week to week performance. The cat is out of the bag. Gurley is the NFL's next great young RB, heir apparent to Peterson. In his first game with more than 6 carries, I think he is tied for #5 (146?) on the Rams most rushing yards in a game for a rookie RB list (HOFer Bettis #1 with 200+ yards, and HOFer Dickerson with two games in his league record 1,800+ yard season). And 100+ yards were in the fourth quarter, once the OL and Gurley got in a groove. Who knows what is possible if they can string an entire game together, and he knocks some more rust off?

at the end of the 1st half he had 4 carries for 2 yards and then got -4 on the first carry of the 3rd qtr. Then he proceeeded to run for 148 on his next 14 carries...

 

[Banger]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

and Tomlinson went to a perenial dumpster fire in SD without a QB....how have Peterson's QB's been? How about Jamal Charles?

when you have a guy with that kind of ability, especially in dynasty, you have to think long term because his QB in 2 years likely won't be on the roster. Also, they have a great defense so he'll consistently have good game scripts where he can get consistent touches and his coach happens to be one of the few remaining head coaches that loves to have a horse and ride him as opposed to the committee approach that has watered down the RB market.

I just don't understand anyone really moving this guy after watching his clips from last week unless you are severely overpaid. What isn't captured in those clips is the game situation and the fact that the Rams needed to get 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock and when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball and he was still running for 10+ yards a clip on the road vs. a very good defense. It was extremely impressive to watch...Not to mention that this was his 2nd career game coming off a knee injury 10-11 months ago.

I would argue that the narrative that the Rams have a great defense who will produce consistent favorable game scripts hasn't shown to have been the case with the Rams' actual game scripts.

What I need to see is the game script like Week 2 against the Redskins where the Rams are down multiple scores in the first half. How do they use Gurley in this situation? They ran the ball a total of 13 times that game (1 being a Foles and 4 to Austin) but they threw it to Cunningham 6 times for 4 catches. Is Gurley always in the game when the Rams are in a 2:00 drill (like he should be) and need to pass the ball, or are they going to bring in a 3rd down back?

I trust Fischer almost a little too much to feed carries to his RBs... the problem is that everything about the Rams is inconsistent and he can't always do that. I can't "assume rational coaching" with Jeff Fischer and if Gurley is not used as a passing game weapon (in PPR leagues) he becomes more of a rich man's Jeremy Hill type of fantasy player to me instead of a Leveon Bell type of fantasy player.

IMO Gurley's value is not solidified up there with Leveon Bell (in PPR leagues) until Fischer uses him as the every down back in a losing game script and uses him in the passing game.

Putting Cunningham in the game when you are down is akin to driving a Honda Accord while you have a Ferrari sitting in your garage. Fisher nearly has wood every time he talks about Gurley..he's in absolute love with the kid and he is going to be used early and often in all phases of the game. He had 21 touches in his 2nd game coming off an injury (16 in the 2nd half).

 

[Banger]

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

Please join my league!!!

This is how trades are made!

Two of my foundational Dynasty (PPR) philosophies are behind this:

1. WRs are in general more valuable in Dynasty than RBs (more consistent, longer career, more predictable, etc.)

2. I want players who play in good offensive situations. A smaller slice of a big pie is often bigger than a big slice of a small pie. (not that the Bears are good, but Cutler is Favre Jr. and forces it to Jeffery which is good for fantasy)

Honestly I probably wouldn't trade Gurley straight up for Jeffrey right NOW, I'm just acknowledging that there is a significant risk that the Rams get clobbered by the Packers in Lambeau this week and we see Benny Cunningham in the game getting catches and Gurley not racking up PPR points. I think after one good game I'd be overreacting by moving Gurley ahead of Jeffrey in my Dynasty rankings. If the Rams are down by 35 in the first quarter and Gurley catches 10 passes that game then he absolutely moves ahead of Jeffrey and almost everyone, but I also didn't already forget that the Rams offense got absolutely stuffed by the mediocre at best Steelers defense in Week 3.

Edit: forgot to add that part of Jeffrey sounding bad right now is also that he's injured. If he had just had big games would it be different? Do you all think Gurley >>> Hopkins as well?

but what happens when Cutler is cut/traded next year? You go with the talent in dynasty because situation can change multiple times over a players career.

Yes I think Gurley is >> Hopkins. I can get a Hopkins a lot easier than I can a potentially elite 3 down workhorse RB.

 

[kittenmittens]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

and Tomlinson went to a perenial dumpster fire in SD without a QB....how have Peterson's QB's been? How about Jamal Charles?

when you have a guy with that kind of ability, especially in dynasty, you have to think long term because his QB in 2 years likely won't be on the roster. Also, they have a great defense so he'll consistently have good game scripts where he can get consistent touches and his coach happens to be one of the few remaining head coaches that loves to have a horse and ride him as opposed to the committee approach that has watered down the RB market.

I just don't understand anyone really moving this guy after watching his clips from last week unless you are severely overpaid. What isn't captured in those clips is the game situation and the fact that the Rams needed to get 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock and when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball and he was still running for 10+ yards a clip on the road vs. a very good defense. It was extremely impressive to watch...Not to mention that this was his 2nd career game coming off a knee injury 10-11 months ago.

I would argue that the narrative that the Rams have a great defense who will produce consistent favorable game scripts hasn't shown to have been the case with the Rams' actual game scripts.

What I need to see is the game script like Week 2 against the Redskins where the Rams are down multiple scores in the first half. How do they use Gurley in this situation? They ran the ball a total of 13 times that game (1 being a Foles and 4 to Austin) but they threw it to Cunningham 6 times for 4 catches. Is Gurley always in the game when the Rams are in a 2:00 drill (like he should be) and need to pass the ball, or are they going to bring in a 3rd down back?

I trust Fischer almost a little too much to feed carries to his RBs... the problem is that everything about the Rams is inconsistent and he can't always do that. I can't "assume rational coaching" with Jeff Fischer and if Gurley is not used as a passing game weapon (in PPR leagues) he becomes more of a rich man's Jeremy Hill type of fantasy player to me instead of a Leveon Bell type of fantasy player.

IMO Gurley's value is not solidified up there with Leveon Bell (in PPR leagues) until Fischer uses him as the every down back in a losing game script and uses him in the passing game.

Putting Cunningham in the game when you are down is akin to driving a Honda Accord while you have a Ferrari sitting in your garage. Fisher nearly has wood every time he talks about Gurley..he's in absolute love with the kid and he is going to be used early and often in all phases of the game. He had 21 touches in his 2nd game coming off an injury (16 in the 2nd half).

Hahaha I totally agree... But I also wouldn't be surprised if Fischer does have a Ferrari in his garage but he drives his Honda Accord to work every day . Honestly though, Gurley is a rookie who missed training camp so it's not out of the question that he doesn't know the pass protection schemes as well as Cunningham. Fischer is such a conservative coach that I think that Honda Accord analogy is perfect. The Honda Accord is never going to break down and cause Fischer to miss the team flight (or miss a blitz pickup and cause Foles to get hurt).

I guess my point is... if he gets 7 touches and 1 catch next week because of game script, can we still trade him for Jeffrey/Anderson/Adams and a top 5 pick or Mike Evans straight up?

 

[jurb26]

The NFL is littered with young WR talent. You can name about 12 guys under 27 who can be argued to be the top WR in dynasty. For RBs, it's really just 2 guys. Bell and Gurley. Sure WR have a greater shelf life but position scarcity is heavily in Gurley's favor.

 

[Bob Magaw]

OTOH, if Gurley gets close to 20 carries on a regular basis, they may score more early, often, consistently and control the clock better. Leading to more game scripts favorable to Gurley getting close to 20 carries on a regular basis.

Hill was the leading rusher in the second half of his rookie season, so if you are getting a rich man's version of THAT Jeremy Hill, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Maybe it requires a leap of faith, Foles has only played four games as the Rams starter. Most would agree this is a much better team than the one inherited by Fisher in 2012 (they added potential All-Pro talents Aaron Donald and Gurley, the defense is much better, possibly top 5-10, etc.). And 3/4 of the combined 2013-2014 seasons were with backup caliber QBs like Clemens, Hill and Davis. How many teams could they start for, 0? How about Foles (about 96 QB rating in 2015, the 2013 27-2 season and a great W-L record in PHI on his resume, so he isn't a complete unknown, there is precedent for his success, of course their offense was better, but he didn't play with a defense this good, either - they held PIT and ARI to well under their usual scoring the past two games, they are on pace for 68 sacks, and the Bears have the record with 72)? So, imo, much of what we think we know and informs our opinions about the Rams in the Fisher era, may not be that representative of where they are at now. If Foles is better. Gurley is better than Richardson, Stacy and Mason. Donald is better than Kendall Langford. Jamon Brown better than a washed up Davin Joseph. Etc.

A key in fantasy football is anticipating trends before they happen. Anybody could point out stuff that has already happened, and than it is too late. Sure there is also risk in being wrong. Assuming things will unfold as they have before will usually be right, but missed opportunities also have costs, sometimes bigger, and that seems to recommend examining things on a case by case basis.

The Rams play GB in a tough game, than the schedule become much easier in the next five games, middle third of the season. They had the disappointing loss to WAS week 2, but are 2-0 in the NFC West, and have already beat SEA and ARI (latter away), two of the top three to four teams in the NFC (if not the NFL). Gurley and the OL are just getting cranked up. Gurley is the difference between a Ferrari or Shelby Cobra, and an AMC Gremlin, Ford Pinto or even defunct Yugo.

 

[kittenmittens]

I disagree, Jeffrey alone is probably worth as much or more than Gurley right now unless we're not talking PPR.

Please join my league!!!

This is how trades are made!

Two of my foundational Dynasty (PPR) philosophies are behind this:

1. WRs are in general more valuable in Dynasty than RBs (more consistent, longer career, more predictable, etc.)

2. I want players who play in good offensive situations. A smaller slice of a big pie is often bigger than a big slice of a small pie. (not that the Bears are good, but Cutler is Favre Jr. and forces it to Jeffery which is good for fantasy)

Honestly I probably wouldn't trade Gurley straight up for Jeffrey right NOW, I'm just acknowledging that there is a significant risk that the Rams get clobbered by the Packers in Lambeau this week and we see Benny Cunningham in the game getting catches and Gurley not racking up PPR points. I think after one good game I'd be overreacting by moving Gurley ahead of Jeffrey in my Dynasty rankings. If the Rams are down by 35 in the first quarter and Gurley catches 10 passes that game then he absolutely moves ahead of Jeffrey and almost everyone, but I also didn't already forget that the Rams offense got absolutely stuffed by the mediocre at best Steelers defense in Week 3.

Edit: forgot to add that part of Jeffrey sounding bad right now is also that he's injured. If he had just had big games would it be different? Do you all think Gurley >>> Hopkins as well?

but what happens when Cutler is cut/traded next year? You go with the talent in dynasty because situation can change multiple times over a players career.

Yes I think Gurley is >> Hopkins. I can get a Hopkins a lot easier than I can a potentially elite 3 down workhorse RB.

Yes you are right that things will probably change with Cutler and I do agree that you go with talent in Dynasty. I also really like to go with "Safe" players though and I think WR are a lot more "safe" than RB for a lot of reasons and only a few RB are exceptions to that.

I don't agree that Gurley >> Hopkins because I feel the just opposite. I feel like I can always get RBs out of nowhere, like Dion Lewis this year or CJ Anderson last year (though that's not going so well now) but the elite WRs sneak under the Dynasty radar much less frequently.

I am enjoying the debate and I think you make very good points. I think we would be trade partners often if we played together due to differing philosophy.

 

[Banger]

Yeah the Rams have had some pretty awful QB situations.

I just can't help thinking back to a couple of other times in recent years where their offensive line has gone berserk run-blocking on a really good defense (Zac Stacy vs Seattle?) but just couldn't keep it going.

I'd be afraid that if Gurley doesn't put up as big or bigger numbers next week his value will plummet relative to right now. On the other hand, if he does explode next week.... look out.

and Tomlinson went to a perenial dumpster fire in SD without a QB....how have Peterson's QB's been? How about Jamal Charles?

when you have a guy with that kind of ability, especially in dynasty, you have to think long term because his QB in 2 years likely won't be on the roster. Also, they have a great defense so he'll consistently have good game scripts where he can get consistent touches and his coach happens to be one of the few remaining head coaches that loves to have a horse and ride him as opposed to the committee approach that has watered down the RB market.

I just don't understand anyone really moving this guy after watching his clips from last week unless you are severely overpaid. What isn't captured in those clips is the game situation and the fact that the Rams needed to get 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock and when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball and he was still running for 10+ yards a clip on the road vs. a very good defense. It was extremely impressive to watch...Not to mention that this was his 2nd career game coming off a knee injury 10-11 months ago.

I would argue that the narrative that the Rams have a great defense who will produce consistent favorable game scripts hasn't shown to have been the case with the Rams' actual game scripts.

What I need to see is the game script like Week 2 against the Redskins where the Rams are down multiple scores in the first half. How do they use Gurley in this situation? They ran the ball a total of 13 times that game (1 being a Foles and 4 to Austin) but they threw it to Cunningham 6 times for 4 catches. Is Gurley always in the game when the Rams are in a 2:00 drill (like he should be) and need to pass the ball, or are they going to bring in a 3rd down back?

I trust Fischer almost a little too much to feed carries to his RBs... the problem is that everything about the Rams is inconsistent and he can't always do that. I can't "assume rational coaching" with Jeff Fischer and if Gurley is not used as a passing game weapon (in PPR leagues) he becomes more of a rich man's Jeremy Hill type of fantasy player to me instead of a Leveon Bell type of fantasy player.

IMO Gurley's value is not solidified up there with Leveon Bell (in PPR leagues) until Fischer uses him as the every down back in a losing game script and uses him in the passing game.

Putting Cunningham in the game when you are down is akin to driving a Honda Accord while you have a Ferrari sitting in your garage. Fisher nearly has wood every time he talks about Gurley..he's in absolute love with the kid and he is going to be used early and often in all phases of the game. He had 21 touches in his 2nd game coming off an injury (16 in the 2nd half).

Hahaha I totally agree... But I always wouldn't be surprised if Fischer does have a Ferrari in his garage but he drives his Honda Accord to work every day . Honestly though, Gurley is a rookie who missed training camp so it's not out of the question that he doesn't know the pass protection schemes as well as Cunningham. Fischer is such a conservative coach that I think that Honda Accord analogy is perfect. The Honda Accord is never going to break down and cause Fischer to miss the team flight (or miss a blitz pickup and cause Foles to get hurt).

I guess my point is... if he gets 7 touches and 1 catch next week because of game script, can we still trade him for Jeffrey/Anderson/Adams and a top 5 pick or Mike Evans straight up?

If he had 2 carries next game it wouldn't change my opinion one bit...I'm in it for the long haul, not next game or the next 5 games. The way I look at it is that you win leagues with truly elite talents that are difference makers that dominate their categories....Jefferies, Anderson's, Adams, Evans are all fine players but don't have the difference making potential that I feel Gurley has.

This hobby is an art more than it is a science and I've been wrong before on players but I'd rather take my shot and either hit the grand slam or go down with the ship if I'm wrong than deal him for a collection of good/not great players. I've had Tomlinson and Chris Johnson through their dominant years...when you hit on guys like that it's like having 2 extra players in your lineup. If you can assemble a decent core around them it makes you nearly unbeatable.

 

[kittenmittens]

The NFL is littered with young WR talent. You can name about 12 guys under 27 who can be argued to be the top WR in dynasty. For RBs, it's really just 2 guys. Bell and Gurley. Sure WR have a greater shelf life but position scarcity is heavily in Gurley's favor.

I agree with this, but we also start 3 WR and 2 RB plus 1-2 FLEX in most leagues, so ideally (because WR simply score more points than RB in PPR) that is 4-5 WRs and 2 RBs.

Loading up on elite WR talent, to me, is preferable to investing in high value RBs. I'd rather try to get 4-5 of those top 12 WRs and start them while filling in with RBs

Gurley also hasn't proven that he is at Bell's level just yet IMO -- Bell has proven consistently that game script will not ruin his day and Gurley has not.

I guess this week will most likely be telling if the Packers do well on offense.

 

[Banger]

The NFL is littered with young WR talent. You can name about 12 guys under 27 who can be argued to be the top WR in dynasty. For RBs, it's really just 2 guys. Bell and Gurley. Sure WR have a greater shelf life but position scarcity is heavily in Gurley's favor.

I agree with this, but we also start 3 WR and 2 RB plus 1-2 FLEX in most leagues, so ideally (because WR simply score more points than RB in PPR) that is 4-5 WRs and 2 RBs.

Loading up on elite WR talent, to me, is preferable to investing in high value RBs. I'd rather try to get 4-5 of those top 12 WRs and start them while filling in with RBs

Gurley also hasn't proven that he is at Bell's level just yet IMO -- Bell has proven consistently that game script will not ruin his day and Gurley has not.

I guess this week will most likely be telling if the Packers do well on offense.

but once he proves it it's too late and you'll never get him...or worse yet you'll deal him due to a few off games. Bob Magaw's post was a great one and I agree completely with his philosophy. You have to be early and try and read the tea leaves...there's certainly more risk in that but if you're good there's certainly more reward. I'd rather be early than late.

I don't disagree with building around wr's as I have Beckham/AJ Green along with Gronk on my keeper league and they are very valuable but a franchise back like Gurley doesn't happen every year.

 

[Bob Magaw]

He is less than a year removed from a torn ACL. It may prove to be not that representative of his entire career, trying to extrapolate too much long range usage conjecture based just on the next game, in dynasty leagues.

 

[Andrew74]

Are people really changing their dynasty ranking based on a week's performance?

 

[spider321]

Two of my foundational Dynasty (PPR) philosophies are behind this:

1. WRs are in general more valuable in Dynasty than RBs (more consistent, longer career, more predictable, etc.)

Your number one foundational dynasty philosophy is incorrect.

These days, most NFL teams have 3 WR's on the field most of the time. A few teams have multiple stud producers at the position.

Every NFL team has 1 RB on the field most of the time.

There are around 30 "stud" WR's in the league right now.

How many RB's can you say the same about? 5? 6?

 

[spider321]

Are people really changing their dynasty ranking based on a week's performance?

No.

I considered him top 3 while he was still playing for Georgia.

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

I'm attempting to field offers for him. My intention isn't to sell, but as they say in Pawn Stars, "you never know what's going to come through that door."

 

[JohnnyU]

Are people really changing their dynasty ranking based on a week's performance?

No, I considered him top 10 when I drafted him in dynasty leagues.

 

[spider321]

I'm attempting to field offers for him. My intention isn't to sell, but as they say in Pawn Stars, "you never know what's going to come through that door."

If 20 year-old Jerry Rice walks in, trade Gurley.

 

[bfan85]

Are people really changing their dynasty ranking based on a week's performance?

Nope. He was the consensus #1 rookie off the board this year, with potential to be a top 10 back sooner rather than later. His performance last week just confirmed that he's got as much potential as people had hoped, and his recovery from knee surgery looks to be complete.

 

[Sebowski]

Also being a Hyde owner gives me some pause here. After week 1 there were people talking that Hyde is know in the Bell tier. Now, not so much. As mentioned in here, what happens to him when they are getting routed? Does he collect dust like Hyde?

I'm trying not to be too optimistic.

 

[kittenmittens]

Two of my foundational Dynasty (PPR) philosophies are behind this:

1. WRs are in general more valuable in Dynasty than RBs (more consistent, longer career, more predictable, etc.)

Your number one foundational dynasty philosophy is incorrect.

These days, most NFL teams have 3 WR's on the field most of the time. A few teams have multiple stud producers at the position.

Every NFL team has 1 RB on the field most of the time.

There are around 30 "stud" WR's in the league right now.

How many RB's can you say the same about? 5? 6?

Well you can disagree with my philosophy but I don't think it's incorrect when you look at the data:

Looking back to ADP for recent years:

In 2013 the top Dynasty players in terms of pre-draft Dynasty ADP were: Trent Richardson (1), Doug Martin (2), Calvin Johnson (3), Adrian Peterson (4), Arian Foster (5), Ray Rice (6), AJ Green (7), LeSean McCoy (8), Julio Jones (9), CJ Spiller (10), Jamaal Charles (11), Dez Bryant (12), Marshawn Lynch (13), Demaryius Thomas (14), Brandon Marshall (15). This is an absolute minefield of BUST RBs compared to where the WRs are currently ranked value wise. If you had an "RB First" philosophy drafting in 2013 you are probably hurting pretty bad right now unless you got lucky.I count 4 maybe 5 complete busts at RB in terms of 2015 value going forward (TRich, Martin, Rice, McCoy, Spiller) and that is out of 9 drafted in the top 15. Almost all of those WR still hold their value in 2015. The busts at WR in 2013 were Percy Harvin (23) and Crabtree (27) but also David Wilson (23), Darren McFadden (25) and Chris Johnson (28)

In 2014 the top Dynasty players in terms of pre-draft Dynasty ADP were: Clavin Johnson (1), Jamaal Charles (2), LeSean McCoy (3), Aj Green (4), Dez Bryant (5), Josh Gordon (6), Julio Jones (7), D Thomas (8), Eddie Lacy (9), Jimmy Graham (10), Doug Martin (11), Alshon Jeffrey (12), Forte (13), AP (14), Bradnon Marshall (15). This time it looks like the community went WR heavy, and they all hold their value except Gordon due to off the field issues. Doug Martin is a bust and Eddie lacy doesn't compare to any of the WR in PPR. Forte and AP are fading value quickly because RBs fall off the cliff faster.

The best I could find for 2012 was a Rotoworld Dynasty startup mock. They had LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, and Ray Rice go ahead of Julio Jones and AJ Green. Ryan Matthews went just after AJ Green. Larry Fitz went in the first round as well. In 2015 the WRs on that list are far and away more valuable than any of the RBs.

When you're investing that high of a draft pick, WR is the way to go IMO to have the best odds of not busting. You can't win your league with your first pick, but you can lose it.

If you can dodge these land mine RBs, maybe you can keep your Dynasty team at the top of the league year in and year out. I'm personally better at taking the longer term approach with "safe" elite WRs and picking out guys like Dion Lewis (waivers), Thomas Rawls (waivers), David Johnson (2nd round pick), Isaiah Crowell (3rd round pick), Danny Woodhead (waivers a few years ago), Justin Forsett (waivers).

My "stud" Dynasty WR count only around 12 - after that its iffy: Julio, AJ Green, Dez, Brown, Beckham Jr, D. Thomas, Cobb, Hopkins, Cooper, Watkins, Jeffery... Hilton? Calvin Johnson? Keenan Allen? Jordan Matthews?

Edit: apologies this is getting off topic here. Mods feel free to move this to a strategy thread

More philosophy..., I'd rather just get to the playoffs every year with a decent team and hope to win. I've had too many "unbeatable" fantasy teams lose to mediocre teams in a 1-week playoff scenario that I think its better to just get there every year than it is to get there more rarely but with a better team.