Dynasty Top 100 Rankings (PPR) (1 Viewer)

[Dan Hindery]

My updated rankings are below. Any feedback/comments would be much appreciated. I'm going to put a long trade value article out by next Thursday and will definitely adjust my rankings if anyone has convincing arguments as to where I'm wrong. 


1


Elliott, Ezekiel - DAL


2


Beckham Jr, Odell - NYG


3


Johnson, David - ARI


4


Evans, Mike - TB


5


Bell, LeVeon - PIT


6


Jones, Julio - ATL


7


Brown, Antonio - PIT


8


Cooper, Amari - OAK


9


Green, A.J. - CIN


10


Cooks, Brandin - NO


11


Hilton, T.Y. - IND


12


Watkins, Sammy - BUF


13


Thomas, Michael - NO


14


Bryant, Dez - DAL


15


Allen, Keenan - SD


16


Hopkins, DeAndre - HOU


17


Robinson, Allen - JAX


18


Gordon, Melvin - SD


19


Freeman, Devonta - ATL


20


Gurley, Todd - LA


21


Jeffery, Alshon - CHI


22


Gronkowski, Rob - NE


23


Kelce, Travis - KC


24


Howard, Jordan - CHI


25


Henry, Derrick - TEN


26


Ajayi, Jay - MIA


27


Miller, Lamar - HOU


28


Luck, Andrew - IND


29


McCoy, LeSean - BUF


30


Hyde, Carlos - SF


31


Adams, Davante - GB


32


Baldwin, Doug - SEA


33


Reed, Jordan - WAS


34


Eifert, Tyler - CIN


35


Benjamin, Kelvin - CAR


36


Coleman, Corey - CLE


37


Henry, Hunter - SD


38


Newton, Cam - CAR


39


Diggs, Stefon - MIN


40


Landry, Jarvis - MIA


41


Moncrief, Donte - IND


42


Crowder, Jamison - WAS


43


Parker, DeVante - MIA


44


Cobb, Randall - GB


45


Hill, Tyreek - KC


46


Thomas, Demaryius - DEN


47


Wilson, Russell - SEA


48


Rodgers, Aaron - GB


49


Pryor, Terrelle - CLE


50


Nelson, Jordy - GB


51


Bryant, Martavis - PIT


52


Ingram, Mark - NO


53


Coleman, Tevin - ATL


54


Murray, DeMarco - TEN


55


Anderson, C.J. - DEN


56


Mariota, Marcus - TEN


57


Carr, Derek - OAK


58


Matthews, Jordan - PHI


59


Shepard, Sterling - NYG


60


Crabtree, Michael - OAK


61


Ertz, Zach - PHI


62


Sanders, Emmanuel - DEN


63


Doctson, Josh - WAS


64


Williams, Tyrell - SD


65


Prosise, C.J. - SEA


66


Rawls, Thomas - SEA


67


Ware, Spencer - KC


68


Bernard, Giovani - CIN


69


Lockett, Tyler - SEA


70


Fuller, Will - HOU


71


Edelman, Julian - NE


72


Mitchell, Malcolm - NE


73


Treadwell, Laquon - MIN


74


Boyd, Tyler - CIN


75


Tate, Golden - DET


76


Prescott, Dak - DAL


77


Winston, Jameis - TB


78


Ryan, Matt - ATL


79


Olsen, Greg - CAR


80


Rudolph, Kyle - MIN


81


Montgomery, Ty - GB


82


Lewis, Dion - NE


83


Crowell, Isaiah - CLE


84


Martin, Doug - TB


85


Maclin, Jeremy - KC


86


Jones, Marvin - DET


87


White, Kevin - CHI


88


Meredith, Cameron - CHI


89


Decker, Eric - NYJ


90


Perriman, Breshad - BAL


91


Ebron, Eric - DET


92


Riddick, Theo - DET


93


Murray, Latavius - OAK


94


Abdullah, Ameer - DET


95


Perkins, Paul - NYG


96


McKinnon, Jerick - MIN


97


Yeldon, T.J. - JAX


98


Hill, Jeremy - CIN


99


Charles, Jamaal - KC


100


Lacy, Eddie - GB

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Just a question--why Sammy Watkins over Deandre considering his history of being so fragile?  Heck--I think I might even consider Allen Robinson over Sammy.  

Edit--I also think you are WWWWWAAAAAAYYY too low on Gurley. No way I'd ever put Sammy over him. 

 

[Dan Hindery]

Just a question--why Sammy Watkins over Deandre considering his history of being so fragile?  Heck--I think I might even consider Allen Robinson over Sammy.  

Edit--I also think you are WWWWWAAAAAAYYY too low on Gurley. No way I'd ever put Sammy over him. 

That whole range is tough for me (12-20) and I have all those guys really close, so I am kind of splitting hairs. They'll all be super close in terms of trade value, so the order might not be very important. I wouldn't argue with any order really from 12-20. 

I might be a bit too high on Watkins because the list of injuries is so long, but he's a guy who I believe in his talent and am willing to take the risk for the extreme upside. Julio got off to a slow start his first few years with the injuries as well and came on a little later. So I'm personally willing to gamble a little bit on him vs. a guy like Hopkins who I don't think is as special a player and only had the huge 2015 due to ridiculous volume the first 8 games that he's never going to see again. 

Gurley was a guy who just keeps falling in my rankings. I'm midway through a dynasty startup auction right now and Gurley was available for fairly cheap and I just couldn't pull the trigger.  I'm not sure what changes for him in the next couple years that all of a sudden a switch goes on and he starts putting up big numbers. The Rams offensive talent is still atrocious and they traded away so many assets to get Goff that a big infusion of talent isn't coming any time soon. I also didn't like some of the comments I read from him last offseason. He seemed to "go Hollywood" and didn't train much in the offseason and didn't look like a special talent last year. 

 

[One More Rep]

Why so low on Landry? 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just a question--why Sammy Watkins over Deandre considering his history of being so fragile?  Heck--I think I might even consider Allen Robinson over Sammy.  

Edit--I also think you are WWWWWAAAAAAYYY too low on Gurley. No way I'd ever put Sammy over him. 

I can't speak for Dan but I think there have been some pretty compelling arguments against Hopkins as an elite WR.

Not that he's not a good player, just that he's not an elite player.  If I recall the basic premise was that his big 111-1521-11 was an aberration as a result of unsustainably high target percentages that compensated for well below elite efficiency with those targets.

Basically, his per target numbers are well below the likes of guys like Beckham, Julio, AJG, etc.  He was able to make up for that one year with some crazy target stats, but those are unlikely to be repeated.

Essentially, he's likely more of a perennial 76-1210-6 type guy (which he put up in his 2nd year with high but more reasonable targets) than a 111-1521-11 type guy.

Granted the jury is still out on Watkins but he has flashed better per target numbers to the point where he may still be able to be consistently elite if he can stay healthy.

 

[menobrown]

Why so low on Landry? 

I actually thought it as high. He was like an extension of the run game when they did not have one but once Ajayi burst onto the scene it mitigated him.

I think he's a volume dependent WR who is seeing his volume shrink. Solid WR3, a 12-14 PPG kind of guy to me now.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

That whole range is tough for me (12-20) and I have all those guys really close, so I am kind of splitting hairs. They'll all be super close in terms of trade value, so the order might not be very important. I wouldn't argue with any order really from 12-20. 

I might be a bit too high on Watkins because the list of injuries is so long, but he's a guy who I believe in his talent and am willing to take the risk for the extreme upside. Julio got off to a slow start his first few years with the injuries as well and came on a little later. So I'm personally willing to gamble a little bit on him vs. a guy like Hopkins who I don't think is as special a player and only had the huge 2015 due to ridiculous volume the first 8 games that he's never going to see again. 

Gurley was a guy who just keeps falling in my rankings. I'm midway through a dynasty startup auction right now and Gurley was available for fairly cheap and I just couldn't pull the trigger.  I'm not sure what changes for him in the next couple years that all of a sudden a switch goes on and he starts putting up big numbers. The Rams offensive talent is still atrocious and they traded away so many assets to get Goff that a big infusion of talent isn't coming any time soon. I also didn't like some of the comments I read from him last offseason. He seemed to "go Hollywood" and didn't train much in the offseason and didn't look like a special talent last year. 

Fair enough--but I also think that Deandre had a qb that had a pretty bad season historically last year in regards to yards per attempt--and I do think that he can only go up from this past season.  With Watkins--I have a hard time trusting his health, the organization that he plays for--and his qb situation--so for me personally---I'd lower him based on all of those things.   It's all subjective--but I'd put Hopkins, Gurley, A-Rob, and Landry all over Watkins because of the lack of those concerns.  I have a hard time comparing Julio Jones to Watkins--because Julio Jones has pretty much always had Matt Ryan.   

In regards to Gurley--I think the key is positional scarcity of young bell cow running backs.   There just aren't too many of them.   While I think the Rams offense might not be the most dynamic--I do think that they will do a better job utilizing Gurley and finding ways to make him more productive.   If his value has truly fallen as much as evident by your experience--I would say that he is a buy low candidate in my opinion.  

With all of that said--you've obviously put in some major time and effort into your list--and I commend you for that.  Thank you for sharing it.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fair enough--but I also think that Deandre had a qb that had a pretty bad season historically last year in regards to yards per attempt--and I do think that he can only go up from this past season.

The Texans threw for 3500 yards and 20 TDs last year.  Not great but reasonable.

Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders performed better with The Brock than Hopkins did.

 

[menobrown]

I'd take Sammy Watkins over Hopkins as well as 3 WR's ranked over him. Most of his missed time goes back to same injury. Same injury Julio had, I have full confidence they get it under control.

Dez was the one that struck me as to high but he has his supporters. But I don't get a guy like DT over 30 spots lower. DT is QB proof, does not miss games and has been performing for the past few seasons and none of those things apply to Dez ,at least not in my opinion. DT is about where he should be, I just think Dez should be farther back.

I have no more or less confidence of Martavis playing next season than Josh Gordon and while I think both are immense talents I think Gordon is better. So for me I can't agree with putting one fairly high and omitting the other.

All comments provided because feedback was requested. There is no one earth that could post a top 100 and I'd not have several I disagree with and imagine same for most if not everyone but to me this is a well done good list.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I actually thought it as high. He was like an extension of the run game when they did not have one but once Ajayi burst onto the scene it mitigated him.

I think he's a volume dependent WR who is seeing his volume shrink. Solid WR3, a 12-14 PPG kind of guy to me now.

Eh, kind of but not in a big enough way to really be convincing with such a small sample size.

Per game stats Pre Ajayi Breakout
6.8 - 80.6 - .2

Per game stats Post Ajayi Breakout
6.0 - 70.2 - .25

And that's not even considering that some of those post Ajayi stats were with the backup QB.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The Texans threw for 3500 yards and 20 TDs last year.  Not great but reasonable.

Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders performed better with The Brock than Hopkins did.

Houston passed for 3176 yards last season and were in the bottom 4 in the league.  I'm not sure how that is considered "reasonable" when it puts them in the bottom 15% of the league. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netPassingYards

 

[menobrown]

Eh, kind of but not in a big enough way to really be convincing with such a small sample size.

Per game stats Pre Ajayi Breakout
6.8 - 80.6 - .2

Per game stats Post Ajayi Breakout
6.0 - 70.2 - .25

And that's not even considering that some of those post Ajayi stats were with the backup QB.

Weeks 1-5, 48 targets and consistent with double digit targets in 4 out of 5 weeks. That is an average of 9.6 targets a game. The team ran 263 plays in those 5 game and he got targeted 18.2% of all plays.

Weeks 6-16 he got 71 targets in 10 games. That is a 7.1 target per game average.  The team ran 537 plays those 10 weeks and he got targeted and average of 13.2%.

I owned Landry all over last year, I lived this. He was a WR3 when Ajayi came onto the scene and he's a WR3 going forward.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Houston passed for 3176 yards last season and were in the bottom 4 in the league.  I'm not sure how that is considered "reasonable" when it puts them in the bottom 15% of the league. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netPassingYards

The Texans threw for 3418 yards (2957 for Brock, 461 for Savage).

I have no idea why you're using net passing yards, which subtract yards for sacks, unless somehow DeAndre Hopkins loses receiving yards when his QB gets sacked in your league.

Regardless, the Texans adding a few hundred passing yards to get into the league average isn't going to propel that dredge of a season back into the elite range.

There are several reasons to doubt Hopkins' ability to become a consistently elite WR.

1. Other good WRs were better than him with the same dreck of a QB throwing to them
   
2. His per target stats are not elite
   
3. His only elite season came with major outlier numbers in target percentage despite non-elite per target efficiency
   

Like I mentioned above, the compelling argument that was made against him was that his per target numbers were more in the range of a good but not great 75-1200-6 type guy who just happened to get an abnormally high percentage of the targets for one year to hide that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Weeks 1-5, 48 targets and consistent with double digit targets in 4 out of 5 weeks. That is an average of 9.6 targets a game. The team ran 263 plays in those 5 game and he got targeted 18.2% of all plays.

Weeks 6-16 he got 71 targets in 10 games. That is a 7.1 target per game average.  The team ran 537 plays those 10 weeks and he got targeted and average of 13.2%.

I owned Landry all over last year, I lived this. He was a WR3 when Ajayi came onto the scene and he's a WR3 going forward.

Yet despite the lower targets his receptions per game only dropped by 0.8 and ypg by 10, while his TDs actually went up slightly.

So he got fewer targets, but had better per target numbers.  That makes sense given that a running game would generally have pretty much that exact effect.

His post Ajayi numbers prorate out to 96-1120-4 which is 232 fantasy points and would have been good for WR13 last year.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The Texans threw for 3418 yards (2957 for Brock, 461 for Savage).

I have no idea why you're using net passing yards, which subtract yards for sacks, unless somehow DeAndre Hopkins loses receiving yards when his QB gets sacked in your league.

Regardless, the Texans adding a few hundred passing yards to get into the league average isn't going to propel that dredge of a season back into the elite range.

There are several reasons to doubt Hopkins' ability to become a consistently elite WR.

1. Other good WRs were better than him with the same dreck of a QB throwing to them
   
2. His per target stats are not elite
   
3. His only elite season came with major outlier numbers in target percentage despite non-elite per target efficiency
   

Like I mentioned above, the compelling argument that was made against him was that his per target numbers were more in the range of a good but not great 75-1200-6 type guy who just happened to get an abnormally high percentage of the targets for one year to hide that.

Good point on the sack yards--but how do you account for the 5 extra tds?  Houston only passed for 15 tds last season-not 20. The key is that the Houston passing game last season was not "reasonable" by any sense of the word--it was one of the leagues worst.    

I totally get why there might be question marks about Hopkins--but every person that we are comparing him too has equal or greater question marks.  Sammy has question marks regarding health, an inept organization, and qb play.   A-Rob has a lot of the same question marks.  Yes--Deandres per target stats are terrible because Brock's yards per pass attempt stats last season were beyond atrocious.  I don't think the OP is too far off in Hopkins ratings--but I do question how he can have guys like Allen--coming off a lacerated kidney and full acl tear--with an aging qb -ahead of him, and Watkins for the reasons I've stated before in this thread.  

 I think it comes down to how we "value" and "assess" certain things.  The OP obviously assesses talent and places far more value on that than he does injury history--which is why his list tends to bet on "upside".  I tend to factor in injury history more than the OP does--so I'd easily put Deandre ahead of Sammy and Keenan for those reasons.  However--it's all subjective--so there's no real debate--its just presenting our opinions.  

 

[menobrown]

Yet despite the lower targets his receptions per game only dropped by 0.8 and ypg by 10, while his TDs actually went up slightly.

So he got fewer targets, but had better per target numbers.  That makes sense given that a running game would generally have pretty much that exact effect.

His post Ajayi numbers prorate out to 96-1120-4 which is 232 fantasy points and would have been good for WR13 last year.

First off I'm not counting week 17.

Second he put up 14.42 points weeks 1-5 when he was more heavily targeted and more heavily involved in the offense. He averaged 12.87 points the 10 weeks after Ajayi came onto the scene. There is no league I play in that was good for WR13. In single PPR he was WR28 in this span and that's not average, that's total points, in terms of average he's had went for less.

If you include week 17 you really can't use his average or total points against other WR's but it did help push him to 13.75 point since Ajayi took over, which was week 6 on. He had 60 catches for 733 yards and 3 TD's in those 11 games. That to me prorates to 87/1066/4. Smells and looks like a WR3 to me.

He averages barely over 10 yards a catch and is a horrible red zone player but if you want to act like he's not volume dependent by all means draft away. I know what he is.

 

[Biabreakable]

HI Dan,

I think this is a solid first pass and your top 30 or so looks pretty good. A few areas there where I might have a guy a spot or so different. After 30 is where things diverge in a lot of rankings. I will just point out a few that seem perhaps way off from where I have them and perhaps you could talk about your reasoning for ranking those players where they are.

34 Eifert, Tyler - CIN I was just mentioning this in ZWKs thread, why is Eifert this high? You are going to take him over Aaron Rodgers? Seems at least 40 spots too high.

91 Ebron, Eric - DET I think Ebron should be drafted higher than Eifert and has more trade value.

46 Thomas, Demaryius - DEN Yes he will be 30 years old next season but he still had 90 receptions last year. I do like most of the WR you have ahead of him enough to understand it although I doubt I could draft Moncrief, Hill or Cobb before him. You actually have him pretty high here considering his age. I would just like to hear more thoughts on your outlookfor him compared to the other older WR you have higher than DT such as Dez Bryant, AJ Green, 

73 Treadwell, Laquon - MIN JUst tell me something good about this guy please. I doubt I could have him in my top 100.


21


Jeffery, Alshon - CH 

87 White, Kevin - CHI

88 Meredith, Cameron - CHI 

This is interesting as you have White ahead of Merridith, so I would like to hear about that, as I think Merridith played better than White did after White was injured.

Do you expect Jeffrey to be playing for Chicago or for another team?

Solid list and thanks for sharing.

 

[BigTex]

Why do you have Cooks over Hilton?

Tex

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good point on the sack yards--but how do you account for the 5 extra tds?  Houston only passed for 15 tds last season-not 20. The key is that the Houston passing game last season was not "reasonable" by any sense of the word--it was one of the leagues worst.    

I totally get why there might be question marks about Hopkins--but every person that we are comparing him too has equal or greater question marks.  Sammy has question marks regarding health, an inept organization, and qb play.   A-Rob has a lot of the same question marks.  Yes--Deandres per target stats are terrible because Brock's yards per pass attempt stats last season were beyond atrocious.  I don't think the OP is too far off in Hopkins ratings--but I do question how he can have guys like Allen--coming off a lacerated kidney and full acl tear--with an aging qb -ahead of him, and Watkins for the reasons I've stated before in this thread.  

 I think it comes down to how we "value" and "assess" certain things.  The OP obviously assesses talent and places far more value on that than he does injury history--which is why his list tends to bet on "upside".  I tend to factor in injury history more than the OP does--so I'd easily put Deandre ahead of Sammy and Keenan for those reasons.  However--it's all subjective--so there's no real debate--its just presenting our opinions.  

Regarding the first bolded point it looks like I accidentally read the column for "Opp TD" which PFR for some reason puts right in the middle of QB stats.  So my mistake on that one, looks like we both messed up their season numbers

Regarding the second bolded point I should note that I wasn't talking specifically about Hopkins' per target numbers this year with Brock.  His career per target numbers are just OK and are well off the pace of the actual elite receivers like Beckham, Brown, Green, etc.

Even looking only at his breakout 2015 season it looks like a lot of volume as much as anything.  The only other players to get as many targets as him (Brown and Julio) each had 25 more catches and 300+ more yards with those targets.  Granted Hoyer is no Ryan/Roethlisberger but if we look at the top 20 WRs in targets Hopkins' catch percentage is down near the bottom behind several guys playing with even worse QBs.

That catch percentage was also pretty well in line with his catch percentage from 2014.  Perhaps even more worrisome is that at almost every stop, his catch percentage was lower than the leading receiver of whomever his current QB had played with around him.  His per target numbers were lower with Ryan Fitzpatrick than Brandon Marshall's were.  His per target numbers were lower with Brock than Demaryius and Sanders were.  His per target numbers were lower with Brian Hoyer than Cameron Meredith's were.

And ultimately, that's the concern with Hopkins.  That he's more of a 76-1200-6 guy who happened to have one outlier season playing with a QB who once again this year showed that he tends to lopsidedly feed targets to his #1 WR more than other QBs.  Maybe it won't be the case but there is a lot of compelling evidence for it.

Either way, good discussion.

 

[ZWK]

Aaron Rodgers looks to be pretty significantly underrated. He outscored Doug Baldwin this year by VBD, and I expect him to have more elite years left in him (he is 5 years older, but the top QBs seem to be lasting till their late 30s these days). Randall Cobb is heavily dependent on Rodgers for his fantasy value, is unlikely to outscore Rodgers by much in VBD, and is much riskier (as we saw this year, when Rodgers was QB1 and Cobb was not a top 36 WR).

Ameer Abdullah is another guy who seems too low, unless you were way down on him coming into the league. He's missed some time, but he's still a talented player who started his second season off with a good game before his injury. He's behind guys like Montgomery (who rose up the depth chart due to injuries and could easily slide back down it), Martin (who is 4.5 years older, and has had only 1 good season out of the past 4), and Perriman (who has had bigger injury problems and done less on the field).

 

[fruity pebbles]

Lesean seems high at 29 years old.

 

[bostonfred]

I like this list and think you did an excellent job. There are a few rankings I personally disagree with but overall a very solid effort. Thank you for posting it. 

 

[bostonfred]

15


Allen, Keenan - SD


 


 


64


Williams, Tyrell - SD


 


 

This feels like a mistake to me, more because of Allen than Williams. At these prices I'll gamble on Williams improving over his first year. They're the same age, but Williams is taller (6'4" vs 6'2"), faster (4.42-4.44 vs 4.56-4.76) and quicker (6.74 3 cone).

Williams' first season of 69/1059/7 compares favorably with Allen's rookie season of 71/1046/8. To be fair, Allen started as a rookie, and Williams basically red shirted, but Williams was the more raw prospect.  He had more mistakes last year when forced into the starting job, but he played well and his 2 years of pro experience may lead to bigger year over year increases for him than Allen.

Allen's been most valuable when he's been peppered with targets, like his half season two years ago when he had 89 targets in 8 games for a 67/725/4 stat line. Both the target volume (178 over 16 games would have been tops in the NFL) and >75% catch rate are unsustainable.  With Williams, Henry and Benjamin in the mix, it's likely that his numbers will drop off.

Williams on the other hand had a very sustainable 69 catches on 119 targets. It's not unreasonable to think either number would increase in his second year as a starter. 

I think it's reasonable to have Allen ahead of Williams - and by a decent margin. I just don't think the difference is early second round vs mid sixth in a 12 team league.  It should probably be more like third vs 5th.

 

[bostonfred]

These guys are all ahead of Kenneth Dixon?  I can understand that you're apparently down on him (or just forgot him) and I get the argument that Baltimore might draft a running back, but these guys?

96McKinnon, Jerick - MIN

97Yeldon, T.J. - JAX

99Charles, Jamaal - KC

100Lacy, Eddie - GB

I have Dixon a lot higher but the downside of getting usurped on draft day is obviously a big factor.  But these guys may never start another game either, and I think it's actually more likely for this group than Dixon.  

 

[TheBottomLine]

This feels like a mistake to me, more because of Allen than Williams. At these prices I'll gamble on Williams improving over his first year. They're the same age, but Williams is taller (6'4" vs 6'2"), faster (4.42-4.44 vs 4.56-4.76) and quicker (6.74 3 cone).

Williams' first season of 69/1059/7 compares favorably with Allen's rookie season of 71/1046/8. To be fair, Allen started as a rookie, and Williams basically red shirted, but Williams was the more raw prospect.  He had more mistakes last year when forced into the starting job, but he played well and his 2 years of pro experience may lead to bigger year over year increases for him than Allen.

Allen's been most valuable when he's been peppered with targets, like his half season two years ago when he had 89 targets in 8 games for a 67/725/4 stat line. Both the target volume (178 over 16 games would have been tops in the NFL) and >75% catch rate are unsustainable.  With Williams, Henry and Benjamin in the mix, it's likely that his numbers will drop off.

Williams on the other hand had a very sustainable 69 catches on 119 targets. It's not unreasonable to think either number would increase in his second year as a starter. 

I think it's reasonable to have Allen ahead of Williams - and by a decent margin. I just don't think the difference is early second round vs mid sixth in a 12 team league.  It should probably be more like third vs 5th.

Really?  You mention how those other guys will take away from Keenan but you don't anticipate that the return of Keenan Allen, their best receiver, is going to negatively impact the volume of Williams?  

 

[gianmarco]

Quite possibly the best rankings I've seen from a staffer here.  Appropriate mix of youth valuation/upside and veteran production without being too heavy in either direction.  With the exception of being higher on a couple of 1st year guys which can always go in any direction, I don't see a single name majorly out of place.

 

[bostonfred]

Really?  You mention how those other guys will take away from Keenan but you don't anticipate that the return of Keenan Allen, their best receiver, is going to negatively impact the volume of Williams?  

Yes, really.  

Rivers has had over 540 pass attempts every year since 2010 with the exception of 527 in 2012. He has 4002 pass attempts in the last 7 years, which is about 560 per year.  He has 1809 pass attempts the last 3 years, about 600 per year.  He had 661 in 2015, and 578 last year with no Allen.  So he should have somewhere between 540 and 660 again this year, and probably between 580 and 600. 

Williams had 119 targets in 15 games.  119 is 20% of 600. Give 20% to Williams, and be generous with the other targets - 15% to the running backs, 15% to the right ends and 30% to Allen and you still have another 20% left over for Benjamin and Inman.  It's very realistic for him to repeat 119 targets, if not improve on them.  And it's realistic for him to improve on his efficiency from his first year as a starter. 

Allen had 89 targets in 8 games in 2015. That's pace for 178 targets a year. 178 is 30% of 600.  That's a massive volume and would have led the NFL. It's very realistic for that to come down now that there are more options.  He caught over 75% of those targets.  Again, that's very high.  Julio Jones hasn't broken 70%. 

If Allen is 100% healthy - no guarantee - and the coaches don't try to manage his usage after he's had multiple season ending injuries - which is also a risk - he could repeat his target volume and still see his production go down from the 2015 half season when he was tearing up the NFL. I think there's several reasons to think his target volume dips.  But he's being priced at "could lead the nfl in receptions", instead of "could be very good". 

Williams doesn't even need to improve on last year to be worth pick 64. He's being priced at "fluke season but maybe he surprises us again".

The numbers don't bear those valuations out.  Neither do their size, speed or production. Look it over and you'll see why. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I think I for the most part agree with Freds post above that Williams is perhaps a bit low on the overall list as I would expect him to be the Chargers 2nd WR in targets after Allen. I would likely put his median range targets at 100 for 2017 or stay the same, with some improved efficiency.

I don't really think Allen is too high or his volume or production were that fluky though. He has missed games, which makes this somewhat problematic trying to project for him though.

2014 8.64 targets per game (138) second season
2015 11.1 targets per game (178) third season

I would project Allen for 150 targets based on the above. That would be the median projection, with upside for 170 targets (like 2015) and downside of 130 targets over 16 games. He has missed a bunch of games, so you might ding him for that.

His catch rate is higher than most WR but his yards per reception are low, many of Allens targets are lower depth of target and therefore higher completion percentage. Comparing his targets to Julio Jones is apples to oranges as Jones is more often being thrown to deep and other lower percentage plays than Allen usually will. It shows in the difference between their yards per reception.

Looking at the last 3 seasons Allen had 7.2 yards per target, which I would say is below average for a WR.  Jones had 9.8 yards per target which is one of the best over this time frame. DeSean Jackson had 11.1 which is the highest I see of (relevant) WR over this time frame.

Allen has scored 22.1 points per game over the last 3 years and only Antonio Brown is higher than Allen in this category.

 

[matttyl]

big ole' dot here

 

[menobrown]

During Rivers tenure in San Diego VJAX has had the two best fantasy seasons and he maxed out at 239 fantasy points. He went on to have his two best fantasy seasons when he left San Diego, played with worse QB's, but got more targets.

The best the second best WR has ever had during the Rivers tenure is 179 points, by Allen in 2014.

These are PPR numbers.

Sure some injuries have been at play but in all of these years 121 targets is the career high for targets for a WR playing with Rivers. I don't know the high mark for the second most targeted WR in a season with Rivers but it's less than 100.

As good as Rivers has been this has absolutely not been a WR fantasy friendly offense in large part because they use the TE's and RB's so often. Both Allen and Williams are overrated fantasy assets, massively so. Both are valued by some with idea they will be keeping same target load as when we last seen them and this offense has proven to be anything but one that would come remotely close to offering that kind of usage.

 

[FF Ninja]

This feels like a mistake to me, more because of Allen than Williams. At these prices I'll gamble on Williams improving over his first year. They're the same age, but Williams is taller (6'4" vs 6'2"), faster (4.42-4.44 vs 4.56-4.76) and quicker (6.74 3 cone).

Williams' first season of 69/1059/7 compares favorably with Allen's rookie season of 71/1046/8. To be fair, Allen started as a rookie, and Williams basically red shirted, but Williams was the more raw prospect.  He had more mistakes last year when forced into the starting job, but he played well and his 2 years of pro experience may lead to bigger year over year increases for him than Allen.

Allen's been most valuable when he's been peppered with targets, like his half season two years ago when he had 89 targets in 8 games for a 67/725/4 stat line. Both the target volume (178 over 16 games would have been tops in the NFL) and >75% catch rate are unsustainable.  With Williams, Henry and Benjamin in the mix, it's likely that his numbers will drop off.

Williams on the other hand had a very sustainable 69 catches on 119 targets. It's not unreasonable to think either number would increase in his second year as a starter. 

I think it's reasonable to have Allen ahead of Williams - and by a decent margin. I just don't think the difference is early second round vs mid sixth in a 12 team league.  It should probably be more like third vs 5th.

Combine stats have proven to have zero correlation to NFL success for WRs. Exhibit A: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/antonio-brown/

Allen's value has been boosted due to a large target volume, but the best WRs tend to get that volume because they earn it. Williams was merely last man standing after Keenan went down and Benjamin had that MCL injury. Tyrell is probably an above average NFL WR, but this is no 1a 1b situation. It will be closer to a 1, 2a, 2b situation.

Expect Keenan to resume WR1 status next season and for Tyrell to split targets and sometimes snaps with a healthy and underrated Benjamin.

 

[bostonfred]

A couple things @Biabreakable

If Allen had 170 targets - the high end of your projection - that would be a pace of 85 per 8 games.  He had 89 in 8 games in 2015. 

Catching over 75% of a large volume of targets is rare. Pick a guy.  Edelman has never had 75%  the closest he came was 61 on 88 which is close to 70%. He's around 67% career. Welker had 112 for 145 once, and had a couple other seasons at just under 75%. Marshall Faulk eclipsed 75% three times in his 12 year career, but he didn't play erode receiver.  It's not easy to search for. I'd welcome help. 

So if his targets are likely to regress, and his catch percentage is likely to regress, 2015 isn't really repeatable. Which is fine - he could still be a wr1 without matching those numbers exactly.  

It's his price that bothers me,because at 15th overall, you're pricing in a better chance to be elite than I think he has 

@menobrown

Using full season ppr numbers for the best second receiver rivers had ever had is a really blunt instrument.  

One, by definition, the second best receiver in any year is the guy who does worse, which means any injury to any receiver is counted against the best second receiver he ever had.  If your wr1 gets hurt, he becomes your wr2. If your wr2 gets hurt, he is already your wr2. 

Two, the best receiver he's had was Vincent Jackson.  Williams is much closer to vjax than Allen.  Vjax was 6'5" and ran a 4.46. Williams  is 6'4" and ran a 4.42. Allen is 6'2"and ran between a 4.56 and 4.76. That seems to explain why Allen would have low yard per catch numbers.  

Three, the other wr in 2015 sucked. Badly.  Woodhead was their leading receiver. Allen played half a season and was number two.  Gates number three.  Steve Johnson, Inman and Floyd combined for 110 catches on 196 targets.  

Williams was more productive in his only year as a starter than floyd or Inman have ever been and put up nearly identical stats to stevie Johnson and Keenan Allen's best full seasons.  

That doesn't mean that he will repeat those numbers, but I strongly disagree with the reasons people are giving why he won't.  He put up very sustainable target and per catch numbers, and while he made "rookie mistakes", he should make fewer this year.  

Consider he's less than a full round ahead of Laquon Treadwell and Tyler Boyd in this list - both of whom were less productive, play with worse qbs, and may never be the number one on their own team.  

Compared to those guys he's a bargain. 

 

[bostonfred]

31 Davante Adams

44 Randall Cobb

48 Aaron Rodgers 

50 Jordy Nelson 

Discuss.  

 

[Biabreakable]

menobrown I think your post is really overstated, i dunno like sarcasm out of control of something, but I tried to understand what you are getting at, and perhaps it is that you don't think the Chargers will pass the ball enough to the WR for two of them to be good? Or for either of them to be as good as they have been?

2016 1014 580 passing attempts 398 rushing attempts
2015 1100 plays 667 passing attempts 393 rushing attempts
2014 1009 plays 574 passing attempts 398 rushing attempts

I could see a scenario where Gordon is healthy all season and playing well enough to enable to Chargers to reduce their passing attempts, to perhaps 550 but that would be a departure from the 607 passing attempts over the last 3 seasons.

As far as the total targets for Chargers WR obviously that is affected by the WR missing half the games in those seasons and Gates does have a large role in the offense, but it isn't clear to me if he will be back in 2017 or not. That might be changing. Vincent Jackson hasn't been a part of their offense since 2011 so I hardly see how they used him back then with different coaches and players would be relevant to what they will do in 2017.

There is a huge difference between the offense in 2015 and the other two years. 100 plays and 100 passing attempts.

The main difference I see in the 2015 offense is that they had Danny Woodhead who had 106 targets and 80 receptions in 2015. 

Looking back to 2013 when Woodhead was a big part of ther offense as well, 2013 1060 plays 544 passing attempts 486 rushing attempts. Woodhead had 88 targets 76 receptions. Matthews was actually healthy most of that season, and so they were able to run the ball more.

If Gordon stays healthy and plays well all year, and the Chargers add a second RB who could contribute a lot, I could see the passing attempts going down, but for the most part I expect Rivers to be throwing the ball as much as he has been recently.

 

[menobrown]

@menobrown

Using full season ppr numbers for the best second receiver rivers had ever had is a really blunt instrument.  

One, by definition, the second best receiver in any year is the guy who does worse, which means any injury to any receiver is counted against the best second receiver he ever had.  If your wr1 gets hurt, he becomes your wr2. If your wr2 gets hurt, he is already your wr2. 

Don't know what you mean by a blunt instrument.

The definition of second best year a WR has had is the 

@menobrown

Two, the best receiver he's had was Vincent Jackson.  Williams is much closer to vjax than Allen.  Vjax was 6'5" and ran a 4.46. Williams  is 6'4" and ran a 4.42. Allen is 6'2"and ran between a 4.56 and 4.76. That seems to explain why Allen would have low yard per catch numbers.  

And VJAX had his best fantasy season when he got out of SD and played with sub-average NFL QB's. So if you are saying he's the best WR he's had that is hardly disputing my contention that is his not a fantasy friendly offense for WR's.

@Biabreakable

Three, the other wr in 2015 sucked. Badly.  Woodhead was their leading receiver. Allen played half a season and was number two.  Gates number three.  Steve Johnson, Inman and Floyd combined for 110 catches on 196 targets.  

I'm not talking about 2015, I'm talking about Rivers career history, no idea why you just focused on 2015.

 

[menobrown]

menobrown I think your post is really overstated, i dunno like sarcasm out of control of something, but I tried to understand what you are getting at, and perhaps it is that you don't think the Chargers will pass the ball enough to the WR for two of them to be good? Or for either of them to be as good as they have been?

There is nothing overstating or sarcastic about raw facts and we are not talking about a few year trend, I'm talking Rivers history. Sorry you don't agree but it's not hard to understand and for you to think it's sarcastic or hard to understand is something I can't even address without coming across as insulting to your intelligence.

 

[joey]

 

[DexterDew]

Thanks for sharing!

The Allen v Williams debate is of interest to me. I was able to acquire the latter fairly cheaply in season and tried to get Allen to "handcuff" the WR1 in SD. Once I wasn't able to procure Allen, I cashed out on Williams. My concern being River's shelf life and the return of Allen and the emergence of Henry. The 2nd WR in SD should get about 95-110 targets if healthy all year (and River's healthy, too).

I like Williams and think he is a solid WR2/WR3 for fantasy, and maybe he develops. But he was a UFA, and they don't have the greatest track record for longevity.

YMMV

 

[FF Ninja]

Thanks for the rankings. FWIW, I can see your rankings for QBs when I click on forecast->dynasty but if I try to sort by WR or RB it only shows Jeff's rankings. Very odd. Anyway, I just sorted them myself in a spreadsheet because I have a hard time ranking different positions against each other and find it much easier to view when sorted by a single position. These are my positional thoughts:

It's a nitpick, but with Bell being younger than David Johnson and more proven I'd rank Bell higher. Gordon and Freeman are too high for my taste. Both are set for major regressions next year (Gordon will have a 3rd down back to contend with and Freeman is losing his OC) and Gordon has yet to finish a season healthy. Ryan Mathews had a much better start to his career than this guy yet never got half the love. Prosise seems really high for a guy who has barely carried the ball in the NFL and can't stay healthy. Crowell is waaay too low for a guy who is 24 and coming off 4.8 ypc on one of the worst blocking AND passing teams in the league. Speaking of Cleveland, I'd have Duke somewhere on there especially with the likes of Theo Riddick and Paul Perkins making the cut (I would not have them in the top 100). Abdullah is a guy way down on the list that I'd much rather have than Prosise. He seems like a very talented player being subjected to unfortunate use. The most prevalent missing name on this list is Kenneth Dixon. I have him ranked in the teens for RBs, but he's not one of the 33 RBs listed.

I'm convinced Cooks and Thomas are products of Drew Brees. With Brees looking to play out his contract, I suspect he'll be aiming to pack his bags to head to a contender in 2018 and Cooks and Thomas will plummet down these lists by October 2018. Similarly, Davante Adams only has one year left of Rodgers carrying him. It's refreshing to see Hopkins ranked outside the top 12 WR. It'll be interesting to see where Cooper ends up in the rankings next year if Crabtree outshines him again. Speaking of Crabtree, he seems kind of low. I've mentioned it before, but it's crazy people still rank Demaryius Thomas above him. They're the same age and Crabtree is the much more complete WR with a more stable situation. I'd much rather have Sterling Shepard than the likes of Crowder, Tyreek Hill, or Parker. I know he doesn't have the WR1 upside people see in Parker, but in a year or two he'll still be in starting lineups as a rock solid WR2 whereas Parker will be at the end of rosters. His 1st year was better than Parker's 2nd. To me he's similar to Cobb, but 4 years younger and less disappointing. Landry's fantasy relevance is the product of the PPR scoring system. If he's not extended, I'm not sure he'll find another QB as willing to check down to him as Tannehill and he'll become just another 60/700/3 slot WR. The Detroit WRs seem low. 

Reed's injuries scare me too much to ever invest in him. Just the concussions alone could force him into retirement soon, but it seems like those are only half his injury problems. Henry seems high considering Gates is likely going to stick around another year. By the time Henry is in his prime, the poorly managed Chargers will be looking for a new QB. Kelce's TE2 ranking feels like recency bias. With injuries to Charles and Maclin last year, it felt like a perfect storm for him, yet I read that his TE1 finish in 2016 would've placed him like TE5 in 2015. Without the extra targets next year (and a normal year of TE scoring), he'll likely be back to his usual TE6-8 finish. I'm all about the budding Ertz-Wentz connection for the next few years.

Mariota at QB5 was surprising. Maybe it shouldn't be, but I'd have him at least 4-5 spots lower.

Again, thanks for posting these rankings in the SP. My comments aren't meant to rag on them or nitpick them, just doing my best to fit the requirement from your statement: "will definitely adjust my rankings if anyone has convincing arguments"

 

[Tau837]

I think Ebron should be drafted higher than Eifert and has more trade value.

I think you are on an island here. There might be a few more castaways on that island, but not many.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think you are on an island here. There might be a few more castaways on that island, but not many.

Thats fine I like it here. Coronas in the cooler if you feel like stopping by. 

 

[garlicduck]

I think you are on an island here. There might be a few more castaways on that island, but not many.

GILLIGAN!!!!

Yeah, I agree that there is no way I'd draft Ebron before Eifert...but I'd rather have Ebron at his current ADP (96) over Eifert at his current ADP (62).

 

[Tau837]

Yes, really.  

Rivers has had over 540 pass attempts every year since 2010 with the exception of 527 in 2012. He has 4002 pass attempts in the last 7 years, which is about 560 per year.  He has 1809 pass attempts the last 3 years, about 600 per year.  He had 661 in 2015, and 578 last year with no Allen.  So he should have somewhere between 540 and 660 again this year, and probably between 580 and 600. 

Williams had 119 targets in 15 games.  119 is 20% of 600. Give 20% to Williams, and be generous with the other targets - 15% to the running backs, 15% to the right ends and 30% to Allen and you still have another 20% left over for Benjamin and Inman.  It's very realistic for him to repeat 119 targets, if not improve on them.  And it's realistic for him to improve on his efficiency from his first year as a starter. 

Allen had 89 targets in 8 games in 2015. That's pace for 178 targets a year. 178 is 30% of 600.  That's a massive volume and would have led the NFL. It's very realistic for that to come down now that there are more options.  He caught over 75% of those targets.  Again, that's very high.  Julio Jones hasn't broken 70%. 

If Allen is 100% healthy - no guarantee - and the coaches don't try to manage his usage after he's had multiple season ending injuries - which is also a risk - he could repeat his target volume and still see his production go down from the 2015 half season when he was tearing up the NFL. I think there's several reasons to think his target volume dips.  But he's being priced at "could lead the nfl in receptions", instead of "could be very good". 

Williams doesn't even need to improve on last year to be worth pick 64. He's being priced at "fluke season but maybe he surprises us again".

The numbers don't bear those valuations out.  Neither do their size, speed or production. Look it over and you'll see why. 

First off, I agree that Allen was ranked about a round or so too high, which is part of what prompted this tangent of discussion.

As for Williams, if I counted properly, @Dan Hindery has him at WR35. That is about right IMO. I think WR30-WR35 is about the right range, and that is before slotting in 2017 rookies, should any merit a higher ranking. What round such a ranking equates to obviously depends on league parameters and tendencies.

As for projecting Williams, there are many factors to consider:

1. The Chargers have a new HC, Anthony Lynn. Lynn was a RB in the NFL and has spent most of the past 15 years as a RB coach for several franchises. Last year, he was promoted to Bills' OC when Greg Roman was fired. The Bills went on to have the #1 rushing offense and #30 passing offense (#32 in pass attempts). Obviously, he has a much different set of personnel in San Diego, with a much better passing QB and better set of targets. The Chargers' OC from last season stayed on, which provides some continuity. So what to expect from the Chargers' offense going forward? Hard to know what to expect, but I would absolutely take the under on 580 pass attempts (last year's total).

2. Another reason to take the under on pass attempts if the team can improve its running game is because the pass protection has been a disaster in recent seasons. Rivers took a beating last season. While he has been incredibly durable, he is 35, so they need to protect him better to keep him upright for the next few seasons. One way to help that is to drop back to pass less frequently.

3. There is a lot of competition for targets.

a. As a group, the Chargers' WRs under McCoy over the past 4 seasons have averaged the following season totals: 306 targets, 191 receptions, 2547 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs.

- Allen has been utterly dominant when on the field the past 2 seasons. He signed a $45M contract extension and will be the team's WR1 if healthy. His performance has justified that, and he also has Rivers' (and likely the coaching staff's) trust (an issue for Williams). None of his injuries are expected to have any long term effects, and thus they don't seem to carry predictive value about future injuries or impact on his future performance. While Allen certainly may not average 11+ targets per game, he will get the most targets on the team. If healthy, no way he gets fewer than 120 targets.

- The Chargers just signed Benjamin to a $24M contract last offseason, and he played most of this season with a PCL injury, for which he had arthroscopic surgery a few weeks ago. He will be back and will get targets. Even playing hurt and missing 2 games last season, he got 75 targets. He should get 50+ if healthy.

- WR4 Inman had an unexpectedly good season filling in for the injured Allen and Stevie Johnson (who I expect to be released). Inman is a RFA, and I expect he will stay with the Chargers. His role will be small barring more injuries, but it won't be zero. He had 97 targets last season and 63 targets in 2015. He is an excellent run blocker, which should ensure he continues to get snaps, especially in Lynn's offense. I can't see him getting fewer than 30 targets if healthy.

b. It is unknown whether or not the Chargers will resign Woodhead, but it is very possible. When he played full seasons in 2013 and 2015, the Chargers' RB group averaged 151 targets per season. When he didn't in 2014 and 2016, they averaged just 108 targets. Big difference that would stand to reduce WR opportunities.

c. It is possible that Gates will retire, but Hunter Henry already looked like a strong replacement in his rookie season. There doesn't seem to be much reason to expect a significant decrease in TE targets.

4. Observations on Williams from last season:

a. He was noticeably running the wrong routes and/or making the wrong reads deep into last season, despite getting a lot of reps throughout preseason and the regular season. Rivers has played with a lot of WRs, including various guys signed off the street or out of a bargain bin at times, but I don't remember him visibly getting on any WR close to as often as he did with Williams last season.

b. The thing that was frustrating to watch is that he left yards and plays on the field every week. He did not play up to his size and athletic ability and did not really seem to have that innate ability many great WRs have to adjust to the ball at the end of a route or in the air. As a result, he did not win many contested catches. Because he did not show the ability to run great routes, he was challenged to get good separation except on crossing routes where his defender is often impeded by others.

c. It is worth noting that, despite his speed and size, the Chargers rarely targeted him deep; I don't mean 20+ yard throws, I mean true deep shots, like they attempted periodically with Benjamin and used to attempt regularly with VJax and Floyd. I think part of the reason for that was a lack of trust that Williams could go up and win a contested deep ball. Rivers showed in the past that he was willing to take those chances with VJax and Floyd, and they made those plays often. Williams rarely made those plays.

Maybe another offseason fixes all of that stuff. IMO it is more likely that he is who we saw last season, a WR2/WR3 who can fill in reasonably well when needed due to injuries. I'm sure he will get better going forward, but I don't see any reason to expect a major leap forward.

Putting it all together, I can't see Williams coming close to 119 targets and think that is the opposite of realistic, unless you are projecting similarly catastrophic injuries to other key targets as happened last season and also projecting that Woodhead doesn't return and the team doesn't find a poor man's replacement for his role.

To reiterate, I like Williams. I stated above that I would rank him around dynasty WR30-35, but not much higher due to my expectation that his season targets should be projected around 90-100, barring a lot of circumstances such as described above. I liken him more to Malcom Floyd than VJax. Floyd was a very valuable NFL player but rarely valuable fantasy player.

As a Chargers fan and dynasty owner, I hope he proves me wrong and exceeds my expectations.

 

[Tau837]

Williams is much closer to vjax Floyd than Allen.  Vjax Floyd was 6'5" and ran a 4.46 4.44. Williams  is 6'4" and ran a 4.42.

See how easy that was?  

 

[grateful zed]

too high on cooks

 

[FF Ninja]

JWB dropping some knowledge in here

 

[TheBottomLine]

too high on cooks

absolutely

 

[Dan Hindery]

Good point on the sack yards--but how do you account for the 5 extra tds?  Houston only passed for 15 tds last season-not 20. The key is that the Houston passing game last season was not "reasonable" by any sense of the word--it was one of the leagues worst.    

I totally get why there might be question marks about Hopkins--but every person that we are comparing him too has equal or greater question marks.  Sammy has question marks regarding health, an inept organization, and qb play.   A-Rob has a lot of the same question marks.  Yes--Deandres per target stats are terrible because Brock's yards per pass attempt stats last season were beyond atrocious.  I don't think the OP is too far off in Hopkins ratings--but I do question how he can have guys like Allen--coming off a lacerated kidney and full acl tear--with an aging qb -ahead of him, and Watkins for the reasons I've stated before in this thread.  

 I think it comes down to how we "value" and "assess" certain things.  The OP obviously assesses talent and places far more value on that than he does injury history--which is why his list tends to bet on "upside".  I tend to factor in injury history more than the OP does--so I'd easily put Deandre ahead of Sammy and Keenan for those reasons.  However--it's all subjective--so there's no real debate--its just presenting our opinions.  

Appreciate the debate and presentation of opinions. 

I think there's going to be a wide variety of views on guys like Allen and Watkins because injury concerns are so difficult to value. I do want to make a point to try to find some expert takes (like Dr. Jene) on some of these guys to see how much I should be concerned about them. 

The one thing I will disagree with you slightly on is knocking Allen for playing with an aging QB. I think the presence of Rivers is a major plus in Allen's column that is a big tie-breaker in his favor compared to most of the other guys in this range. We're seeing more and more QBs playing exceptionally well into their late 30s and beyond these days. Rivers should fit well into that mold as he's never relied on having a big arm. He just turned 36 and is almost 4 years younger than Tom Brady and over 2 years younger than Drew Brees. Rivers has a long streak of 4200+ yard seasons and has averaged over 30 passing TDs per season the last 4 years. 

Hopkins on the other hand is in a tough spot at QB and I also think the team dynamics in Houston could hurt his value. That Texans defense ranked #1 this past season without JJ Watt. They are absolutely loaded and should be excellent over the medium-long term. With the QB issues and the presence of Lamar Miller, I don't see that offense going back to the early 2015 pass-happy version any time soon. 

 

[Dan Hindery]

HI Dan,

I think this is a solid first pass and your top 30 or so looks pretty good. A few areas there where I might have a guy a spot or so different. After 30 is where things diverge in a lot of rankings. I will just point out a few that seem perhaps way off from where I have them and perhaps you could talk about your reasoning for ranking those players where they are.

34 Eifert, Tyler - CIN I was just mentioning this in ZWKs thread, why is Eifert this high? You are going to take him over Aaron Rodgers? Seems at least 40 spots too high.

91 Ebron, Eric - DET I think Ebron should be drafted higher than Eifert and has more trade value.

46 Thomas, Demaryius - DEN Yes he will be 30 years old next season but he still had 90 receptions last year. I do like most of the WR you have ahead of him enough to understand it although I doubt I could draft Moncrief, Hill or Cobb before him. You actually have him pretty high here considering his age. I would just like to hear more thoughts on your outlookfor him compared to the other older WR you have higher than DT such as Dez Bryant, AJ Green, 

73 Treadwell, Laquon - MIN JUst tell me something good about this guy please. I doubt I could have him in my top 100.


21


Jeffery, Alshon - CH 

87 White, Kevin - CHI

88 Meredith, Cameron - CHI 

This is interesting as you have White ahead of Merridith, so I would like to hear about that, as I think Merridith played better than White did after White was injured.

Do you expect Jeffrey to be playing for Chicago or for another team?

Solid list and thanks for sharing.

RE: Eifert in general and Eifert v. Ebron.

A lot of the value for TEs comes via touchdowns. Eifert has 18 TDs in just 21 games over the past two years (and some of those games,  he was easing back in from an injury). When healthy, he's been at a TD per game pace. That's elite stuff and if you watch the Bengals, it isn't fluky either. Eifert is a major red zone mismatch and Dalton loves looking his way down there. I think the TD production of Eifert gives him some real upside and he has the potential to be a major difference-maker at the position going forward if he can just stay healthy. 

Ebron on the other hand is 40 games into his career and has 7 TDs. He caught just 1 in 13 starts last year. Watching the games, that doesn't appear that fluky either. He's just not a big red zone guy. Even in college, he scored surprisingly few touchdowns. 

Reading between the lines, it seems like there's only a 10-20% chance Alshon is back in Chicago. I think he could get one of the biggest contracts in NFL history at WR and will probably leave. His value is highly dependent upon his landing spot obviously. Somewhere like San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan would be interesting (maybe with Trubisky?). 

I'm actually with you on Meredith vs. White. I've never been a believer in Kevin White and Meredith is a guy worth targeting IMO. But I try to make my rankings kind of a combination of my personal views and the general consensus and market value on players. People still love Kevin White. As I mentioned, I'm partway through a startup auction and it's nice to have some data points of where other owners view these players. White went off the board as a top 35 WR and for ~35% more than Meredith. 

 

[Dan Hindery]

too high on cooks

Who do you like better? Michael Thomas? That's a close one for me I guess but I like the 2 year sample size with Cooks as a tie breaker and Cooks is actually a little bit younger.

Definitely a case for TY despite the 4 year age difference. At least TY will get his prime years with Luck. I can buy that one and might swap the two on closer consideration.

Then there's the injured guys like Watkins and Allen. Higher upside but they are clearly higher risk.

I don't love Cooks, but as I've mentioned earlier in the thread, there's questions about all the guys in that range and someone has to be higher than the rest. Cooks has had back-to-back seasons of ~240-250 fantasy points at age 22 and 23. That's nothing to sneeze at.