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[DYNASTY]Top 100 rookies - IDP included (1 Viewer)

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NOTE: Click on the players name to link to the latest news on them.

1. Cadillac Williams

well there you have it, caddy is #1. At this point I still have no idea whose career will be the best, so lets just go with the guy with the most innate talent (and therefore highest ceiling).

The Latest: Caddy still has the clearest path to starting of the big 3.

2. Cedric Benson

The Latest: Jones is not phased about Benson's presence... Angelo says that Benson was a BPA pick, not a statement on Jones.

3. Ronnie Brown

The Latest: The Ricky comeback is looking more likely by the day. Brown is looking good in camp, but Saban wants him to be more assertive.

4. JJ Arrington

The Latest: Arrington's looking good and getting more reps in hambrick's absence. Denny Green sounds real happy: "J.J.'s very quick, explosive," HC Green said. "He has outstanding hands. I think he's everything we hoped he would be. I think it's going to work out real well". Arrington is going to be a STEAL in the 3rd round and later in redraft leagues.

5. Braylon Edwards

Megatalent in brutal situation with crowded WR corps and rookie QB. Frye is a leader well-respected by his teammates, so its a plus that they can develop together. Could develop into #1 do everything WR a la Chad Johnson - but also has young WR Davis and Bryant to share with. Long term, should be the #1 option in the browns passing attack, his ceiling depends on whether Frye develops as a QB. Edwards is still the top WR on the board because he has the skills and talent to do everything - YAC, deep jumpballs, tough catches, fades - he's the total fantasy package at WR.

The Latest: Edwards has a minor injury and has missed practice due to a death in the family - he should be practicing with the first team soon.

6. Mark Clayton

imo, a cant miss talent - almost zero risk. Baltimore is not the most prolific passing offense, but I see him emerging as the #1 receiving option there down the line - I love his technique and have always thought he looked like an NFL WR in college - i know thats vague, but its a "know it when you see it" thing. I see him as almost a sure thing to be a top 20 WR for his prime with some top 10 finishes. Clayton goes this high because he is more polished and complete than any of the other 1st round WRs, if you like upside more than certain production, you might bump him down.

The Latest: Clayton has been impressive in minicamp, but troubled by hammy injuries.

7. Frank Gore

How much faith do you have in Barlow? adjust up or down accordingly. I was thinking Gore would be a steal in the mid late 20s a few months ago... I love Gore as a NFL prospect and expect success. He's got the build, vision, and approach to be a solid NFL feature back. He's getting stronger and we never got to see him at top form in college. His work ethic and attitude are unquestioned - all adds up to a decent chance at sticking as a #1 back long term in SF which would be a coup at this pick.

The Latest: Gore is a candidate to return kicks.

8. Eric Shelton

At the absolute worst, you get TJ Duckett (who still might have some good years ahead of him) - if foster continues to be injury prone, i think you get Stephen Davis. A perfect marriage of offensive philosophy, role, and abilities. If Carolina's D becomes dominant (and it could), Shelton could become their Jerome Bettis, just brutalizing defenses in the 4th quarter.

The Latest: Shelton is a "work in progress" - some speculation that he could challenge for the starting job - some mixed signals going on.

9. Mike Williams

Love the hands, Love the size and the way he uses it, but there's a risk here, and its that charles rogers learns how to land without breaking his collarbone. If that happens, I dont see how Mike becomes a big time fantasy producer - if rogers steps aside, The Williamses could be the next great WR tandem - spurring both of their numbers into #1 WR territory... if they get someone better to throw to them. Lack of YAC ability puts him 3rd in the WR class.

The Latest: Detroit plans on running a 3 WR package.

10. Alex D Smith

dual threat QBs dont grow on trees. should be the starter for at least 3 years - none of Carr/Harrington/Boller/Ramsey - the recent fantasy 1st round QB fantasy busts - could run like Smith - even if Smith is a bust on the field, i bet he's a top 15 QB due to the running stats. If he pans out, could be a top 7 or 8 fantasy QB. I think Plummer is a player halfway in between Smith's best and worst case scenarios. I understand why you would pass on smith if you are set long term at QB, but if you are lacking youth at QB, smith is a solid pick after the RBs. DOWN FROM 5. After more thought about the glut of decent fantasy QBs (the 5th to 15th best variety), I have bumped smith down, because even if he is an excellent fantasy QB, his trade value will be not that great unless he breaks into the top 5, and he's not a sure thing to upgrade your QB position if you already have one of that large 2nd tier. still the value pick at 10.

The Latest: Smith very very close to signing.

11. Troy Williamson

Williamson is a one-dimensional deep threat, sorry. Dont think that he can do everything moss did - moss's success is setting unreasonable expectations for williamson. Burleson is going to become Pepper's security blanket and go to guy in tough situations, not williamson. I may eat my words, but i see his upside as ashley lelie type numbers - although he's extremely likely to hit it. He will go much higher than he should in most dynasty rookie drafts. Bust risk drops him out of top 10.

The Latest: Williamson has had some ups and downs in minicamp - he is getting a few reps with the first team, some kickoff reps, and one on one time with the WR coach to work on his routes and hand positioning.

12. Ryan Moats

A great talent in a great situation, but I wonder if there will ever be a true feature back in philly's offense. Letting westbrook walk next year makes sense, and moats is like a more elusive version of westbrook. I think he has the capacity to become a very good pass catching RB, and fill westbrook's role perfectly.

The Latest: westbrook signed his one year deal, so we'll probably have to wait until 06 to see what moats can do.

13. Reggie Brown MOVING UP

Reggie Brown is to TO what Reggie Wayne is to Marvin Harrison - a steady WR who while not the biggest, fastest, or most explosive, is a great route runner with dependable hands and will benefit from a good QB and defenses keying on their future HOF partner. Like Wayne, he can put up very good numbers despite not being a true #1. The Mark Clayton of the 2nd tier - should reach his ceiling, but its not as high as his peers.

The Latest: Eagles still planning on a large role for Brown if TO holds out. Brown is getting to work with McNabb in TO's absence.

14. Vernand Morency

I keep coming back to the same thing - the way he took over games in the big XII last year, just devastating defenses late in the game with his cutting ability and elusiveness. I felt then, and I do now, that he can be a good RB for a ball control team - although he's not the most physical RB. I think he at least gets a few series a game. Dom Davis got dinged up last year in the first half, and Hollings and Wells were no threat to take his job, so he started when he got healthy and put up big numbers in the second half. This year Morency may impress enough for the job to not be there when Davis comes back if he misses games again.

15. Marion Barber

I really like Barber as a NFL prospect because of his low determined running style. I think he can be successful if given the chance. Julius Jones is a tough RB to be behind, he was extremely impressive last year, and i would think that Barber would have to put up eye-popping numbers to displace Jones permanently. Maybe down the line with another team Barber could break out, and there's always the chance that Jones suffers another serious injury, but Barber seems buried to me. RB premium dictates a pick, but youll have to be patient.

The Latest: Parcells says he plans on using Barber on 3rd downs and kickoffs - about 25 offensive plays game - its great to hear that Barber will get a chance to see the field and show what he's got.

16. Ciatrick Fason

Fason is a project at RB, still very raw, but he flashed the kind of all around running ability and game that an NFL feature back needs. The Vikes RB situation stands to get clearer next year if it gets pared down to him and Moore. Put me in the camp of people who think Moore is good enough that this is RBBC at best. Also dont put it past Minnesota to draft an RB early next year. RB premium dictates a pick here, but his future is cloudy.

17. Alex Smith (TE)

Gruden will make use of him in the passing offense, count on it. He could be #2 option in tampa's passing offense very soon.

18. Heath Miller

Could become ben's #1 red zone target. could become mark bruener II. run first offense is not good for his fantasy prospects - i see limited upside - never breaking the top 5 fantasy TEs.

19. Alvin Pearman UP FROM 23

Pearman was quietly very good at virginia last year, and still within the two year recovery window from an ACL tear. He can do everything well, and i think stands just as good a chance as Jones and Toefield to emerge if Fred's knee is balky. The more i think about Pearman, the more I like - Taylor should not be a factor by 07 and Pearman has hidden upside because of the ongoing ACL recovery - if Taylor's knee is still a problem in july, put Pearman in your top 15.

The Latest: Fred Taylor confirmed an MCL and PCL tear. Pearman should be this year's mewelde moore, and could be this year's dom davis.

20. Mark Bradley

This may seem high to a lot of people, but i think he's the #1 WR in chicago come 07 - he's like a rawer, bigger version of clayton - very smooth and a threat to take it the house after the catch.

21. Roddy White

see Williamson, except Vick does not throw a great deep ball. I dont see this as a good fit at all, and i expect White to be a first round WR bust - but his talent is still worth a pick in the late 2nd/early 3rd. UPDATE: Price may be leaving atlanta sooner than later, and the news out of minicamp on white is good. Stay tuned.

The latest: Price has to fight just to get a roster spot this summer. White could be seeing the field a lot in his rookie season.

22. Matt Jones

Has a chance to become Leftwich's go-to guy - and that could be huge in fantasy terms because byron is a gunslinger. definitely not for the risk averse, as he still has to learn the position, and does seem very laid back for a big time football player. Has Upside to match the WRs above him, but risk they that dont carry. speculative WR talent should always be behind the speculative RB talent. If you really believe in Matt Jones, just trade for him in the offseason next year when his owner gets impatient, and take a more solid investment like Frye or Brown.

The Latest: Jones is almost back to 100% and participating in non-contact drills and OTA.

23. Thomas Davis UP

I dont care if he's SS or LB, Davis will be the #1 defensive playmaker from this draft. He's got big play hitting instincts, including great pass rushing skills for someone his size. He's in a defense that could be on the verge of greatness. The undisputed #1 IDP on my board.

The Latest: Davis is impressing in OTAs - Minter was resigned to a 4 year deal - Davis an WLB long term - could be a stud LB in the making - think derrick brooks.

24. Chris Henry MOVING UP

A first round talent, Henry's stock plummeted as draft day approached because of off the field issues. Now, Henry has a good home in cincinnati, a team that wants him, and Chad Johnson is mentoring him. His future is looking better by the day.

The Latest: Nothing but good news about Henry's progress and attitude.

25. Odell Thurman

Nate Webster's got one foot in the grave and Thurman is a better talent than Landon Johnson. He should be in the middle of the cincy defense for awhile. Thurman may start his career as the starting MLB in a Marvin Lewis offense - sounds like a stud LB in the making.

The Latest: Thurman is projected as the opening day starting MLB.

26. Derrick Johnson UP FROM 34

Could get mired at SLB, and there is some risk of a bust if his playing style (unwillingness to take on blocks) doesnt translate to the pros.

The Latest: DJ is "flying around the field" making plays in practice - he should contend for a starting job. I was too harsh on DJ - I read too much into his falling into the middle of the first. He should rip it up for the chiefs. draft with confidence.

27. Jason Campbell

I like Campbell as a talent, including his running ability and nice deep ball - things that can add up to fantasy success - but washington is just a fouled up organization. I can see the team going in the tank soon. They cant bring in a real #1 WR for him next year through the draft because they traded their first for him. Im not excited about his WR corps long term. A guy who has the starting job handed to him is still worth a pick here, but im afraid that campbell's fortunes are tied to washington's and i dont like them. Maybe he could become a solid fantasy QB because they are playing from behind a lot, but i feel that when the inevitable axe falls in 3 or 4 years because the team is putrid, Campbell will be relegated to QB purgatory.

28. Aaron Rodgers DOWN FROM 18

You have to wait a year, sure, but Rodgers is still a decent talent at QB, dont fool yourself. He should be able put up chad pennington type numbers, and has upside above that because he's going to inherit a good WR corps and a guy to grow with in practice this year in Murphy, and a passing offense that can yield very good QB stats. Like Smith, bump down if youre set at QB for the future.

The Latest: Rodgers is officially a project QB. I dont see any production from him until 2007.

29. Charlie Frye DOWN FROM 19

I would roll the dice on the MAC QB success continuing. Frye is another intangibles QB with athleticism and a competitive fire to match. He'll become the leader of the offense and he's got a very good foursome of WR to work with.

The Latest: The signing of Doug Johnson is a signal that Frye will not be ready to accept any responsiblity this year - like rodgers, the wait for production from him will be a long one.

30. Andrew Walter

Could end up being the best fantasy QB in the draft if he inherits randy moss and jerry porter. questions about the shoulder, but has the upside of the QBs ahead of him, just a longer wait for a shot at the job.

31. Maurice Clarett

Denver is a great situation, and this is about where the tremendous possible reward balances out the tremendous known risk. not to mention that no denver RB is safe from shanny's itchy trigger finger on RB draft picks. I doubt he's around at 27 in most drafts, i doubt he's even around at 20.

32. Adrian McPherson

like, clarett, a total boom/bust pick. at least only aaron brooks is blocking him. i have to wonder if new orleans is the best city for a guy with character issues, lots of chances to slip up there.

33. Vincent Jackson

Will be groomed to be the big go-to WR in SD, but dont expect much til 07, and there's risk, as with any project player - also hard to see anyone but gates being the #1 passing option.

34. Barrett Ruud

Ruud's path to the long term starting MLB slot in tampa is even more open than thurman's path in cincy.

The latest: Ruud will stay at MLB instead of cutting of his teeth at SLB - another sign that he's clearly the MLB of the future in tampa.

35. Cedric Houston

Houston has one year to convince the jets that he's their RB of the future... His talent is good enough to take a chance on him here - could be a jackpot pick.

The Latest: Houston signed with the jets. apparently his thyroid condition caused him to fall to the 6th.

36. Kyle Orton

Remember this guy was considered a possible #1 overall early last year. Brees turned out okay from the same purdue spread offense. Grossman is anything but entrenched. Orton is good enough to get a shot on another team in 3 or 4 years if Grossman pans out, so patience may be necessary. Still love the upside this late. Must draft for Grossman owners.

37. Dan Orlovsky

Poor Man's Roethlisberger. A leader and a big sturdy athletic guy who will take hits to deliver the throws. I dont think Harrington turns the corner - If Orlovsky can win the job down the line he gets the Williamsssess and Rogers to throw to. Like Orton, ill take that gamble in the 30s. Must draft for Harrington owners.

38. Stefan LeFors

Loved the pick - Delhomme is the perfect mentor for him. I think down the line Lefors becomes a starter somewhere and does well - will be a great backup to have for delhomme owners. One of the 3 true dual threats QBs along with Smith and Mcpherson... fantasy gold. One of my favorite sleepers - will reward patient owners down the line, possibly earlier if delhomme gets hurt.

39. Brandon Jacobs

A big back in a situation where he probably wont have a chance to be the feature back - I see him as a very overrated player in dynasty drafts right now who is really equal to fantasy afterthoughts like nehemiah broughton and kay jay harris long term. I could be completely wrong about Jacobs but he was just not enough of a dominant workhorse at the lower level for me to think his game will translate to the pros - i like the talent of more classic workhorse type small school RBs like Derrick Wimbush and DeWhitt Betterson just as much as Jacobs and he is only this high because of where he was drafted.

40. Damien Nash MOVING BACK UP

One Chris Brown injury away from getting a look in tennessee IF he can make the team. has the build and running style to succeed in the NFL, like clarett a major character risk. still the RB scarcity means he merits a pick here. Good insurance for brown owners here. Watch to see who out of Reyes, Nash, and Terry Jackson wins the primary backup job to chris brown and rank them here.

The Latest: Nash is already back from minor knee surgery - a great sign as his multiple knee injuries was one of main questions about him.

41. Lofa Tatupu

Should get every chance to succeed as the MLB in seattle. Some bust risk because of size and some other shortcomings in his game, but you have to love the opportunity.

The Latest: Lofa is picking up the defense well enough that he got to call the signals in practice for a day.

42. Alfred Fincher

NO's LB situation is a mess, but I think Fincher has the leadership and talent to emerge as the MLB when the dust settles, maybe as soon as this season.

43. David Greene

A Hardnosed winner who oozes intangibles and could get a shot in 2 or 3 years, either for seattle or in a free agency/trade situation. Not exciting, but should be a Dilfer/Fielder style game manager Qb at worst.

The Latest: Greene is looking better, and should battle Seneca Wallace for the backup QB job.

44. Channing Crowder

Sideline to Sideline talent at MLB - I cant get past the kendrell bell comparison in my head - oozing with ability but injury prone.

45. David Pollack

SLB will not produce big tackle numbers, but with his motor and marvin lewis's defensive mind, I see Pollack producing a lot of big plays on D.

The Latest: Pollack should be starting in week 1.

46. Demarcus Ware

47. Kevin Burnett

Maybe I am just wrong on this analysis, but I feel that 3-4 OLB is a graveyard for fantasy LBs. even if they get double digit sacks, their tackle numbers are so anemic that it is impossible to count on production week to week. if you think one of these guys (including pollack) is going to become an unstoppable player and defy the typical production of a 3-4 OLB, feel free to bump them up - id rather have a quality offensive prospect or an LB with the natural skills and opportunity to end up in a big tackle position.

The Latest: Burnett had hip surgery, should be back in late july. He did practice at both ILB and OLB - if he ends up on the inside, he may move up this list slightly.

48. Craphonso Thorpe

If healthy, he'll be the best WR on KC by 2006 - a possible top threat in a prolific passing offense - worth the risk as he has skills to be a true #1 WR.

The Latest: Reality has set in and Thorpe is rawer than expected - He probably wont contribute much this season.

49. Jerome Mathis

Have to take a flier on the chance this X-factor guy learns the finer points of receiving and becomes the #2 in houston - still developmental WR without #1 potential shouldnt go higher than the 4th round.

50.Brodney Pool

As a natural FS, he wont ever put up huge tackle numbers, but he should be entrenched as a starter for a long term, and is probably the safest bet among IDPs to hit his ceiling after Davis imp.

The Latest: Pool missed minicamp with a hammy injury.

51. Shawne Merriman

The Latest: Merriman's holdout may postpone his transition to LB... bad news.

52. Larry Brackins

Ponder this: If Brackins had gone to college and played up to his talent level instead of going to the NFL, he likely would have been a very high draft pick next year. definitely worth a flier here.

The Latest: Brackins is out of practice with a hammy injury

53. Brandon Jones

The last of the trio of titan rooks, and probably the one with the least upside. Also the third of the trio of oklahoma WRs, and clearly the least talented. Still he has a good frame and knows how to use it, Jones is also a physical WR who will help with his blocking and special teams play. Should be interesting to see if competition helps the titans rooks raise their level of play.

The Latest: Jones has been the most impressive of the 3 titans rook WRs. Calico's knee is still a little dicey, so Jones could see a lot of action with the first team in training camp.

54. Jerome Collins

size/speed/strength freak a la ben watson, but raw at the TE position. Guess what, he was a WR in high school... Antonio Gates, anyone? worth a flier here - "swing for the fences" pick.

55. Terrence Murphy

Driver should be getting long in the tooth just about the time this guy is ready to explode - I like that he and rodgers get to practice on the same unit all year. A good catch and run WR who could be a nice compliment to Walker if he sharpens his focus.

The Latest: The packers like what they see in murphy so far and think he could contribute this year.

56. Courtney Roby

A tough dedicated catch and run burner similar to another Indiana alum, Antawn Randle-el. Titans long term WR picture is cloudy, but his talent is equal to some WR above him on this list.

The Latest: Roby is looking good on short and intermediate routes - which is the best kind of routes for him to use his YAC ability. Another guy looking to get reps with the first team while Calico is still recovering.

57. Kevin Everett

A very talented receiving TE who does not have any stiff competition long term for the TE of the future slot in buffalo. Good value pick for patient owners - upside not far off of miller and smith, and ACL tear will make him a forgotten man in your draft. steal him in the 4th/5th.

The Latest: Everett's ACL surgery went well. he's a great value pick in rookie drafts right now.

58.Antrel Rolle

Plays CB like a safety. I would rank him as the 3rd surest thing among IDPs in this draft, but CBs have to be truly standout statistically to have any value in dynasty leagues.

The Latest: Rolle is working hard, matching up with Fitzgerald in minicamp.

59. Roscoe Parrish

I see him and Darren Sproles as dante hall x-factor players, but parrish could prove me wrong if his toughness makes up for his small frame. Still blocked long term by moulds and evans, so im not bullish on parrish.

The Latest: Parrish is impressing his teammates, including JP Losman

60. Fred Gibson

Honestly not that far off of Henry and White talent wise, Gibson is an intriguing big play talent who could become a stud WR if he works hard to learn the complete WR game. For now he will be used strictly to stretch the field and will have to work his way up through the ranks in Pittsburgh - Lots of upside, but wont be a factor soon, and could easily be another pinkston.

The Latest: Some speculation that gibson might beat out lee mays at WR4.

61. Kirk Morrison

Long term, the middle of the oakland LB corps is wide open - Morrison is not quite as talented as the LBs above him, but his long term opportunity is excellent.

The Latest: Jay Foreman will block Morrison from significant playing time this year, but Morrison's long term picture is unchanged.

62. Robert McCune

The future Jeremiah Trotter of the skins defense.

The Latest: Gibbs thinks McCune has a hot body.

63. Lance Mitchell

Talent-wise was rated close to equal to Derrick Johnson before his knee injury. Dropped in the draft because he wasnt all the way back, but was constantly improving as the 04 season went on, and could be the #1 IDP from this draft if he gets all the way back - a true do-everything MLB.

64. Donte Nicholson

The best SS in the draft after Thomas Davis. May have to wait a bit for a starting gig if jermaine phillips hits his stride as a player, but nicholson's profile as the classic big hitter SS merits a pick at this point.

The Latest: Kiffin says Nicholson is picking up the defense quickly... he could go shooting up this list if philips struggles in camp.

65. Bo Scaife

Believe it or not, Scaife is close to, if not equal to the TEs above him in terms of receiving talent. He was Vince's Young security blanket at UT and can make tough catches in pressure situations. He also has a lot of trouble staying healthy and Ben Troupe to contend with. If Scaife can find a way to stay healthy, he could be a second day steal, the kind of TE that plays like a WR over the middle.

66. Mike Nugent

A kicker?!?! Nuge kicks for a conservative coach that loves to settle for FGs and you should bump him up if your league has a penalty for misses or bonus for 50+ yarders because he's accurate even from long distance.

67. Justin Tuck

Will get to learn from strahan and have another up and coming DE, Umeniyora on the other side long term. I like his prospects to be a starting quality DE in start 2 DE leagues.

68. Marlin Jackson

Like Pool and Rolle, a very solid player who has a low bust risk - and while he should put up good numbers as a cover 2 CB (or possibly FS), only the very best CBs have value in dynasty leagues, so its hard to recommend taking him before decent offensive prospects or quality LB prospects.

The Latest: With all the colts DB legal troubles, Jackson could see a lot of action this year - maybe even start.

69. Darren Sproles MOVING UP

Blocked for even the backup role by Chatman and Turner. Should be fun to watch but no better than kevin faulk for fantasy.

The Latest: Sproles has turned heads in minicamp, but his fantasy potential is still severely limited long term because of his size - its not impossible that he beats the odds, but its very unlikely.

70. OJ Atogwe

the only safety on st louis's roster that can cover. should be starting soon. a very solid player, but archuleta and the cover 2 defense will keep his tackle numbers modest.

71. Leroy Hill

A smallish playmaking LB who could land the WLB job in seattle long term. keep an eye on him, he could produce at the same level as the elite IDP prospects in this draft down the line.

72. Walter Reyes

A guy who could easily go shooting up this list with a good camp. If the titans dont bring in a vet, the potentially very valuable role of backup to Chris Brown will be up for grabs, and Reyes is one of the candidates. He was extremely productive in 2003, and was limited by injuries for most of 2004. He is a speed back who needs to get more physical, but has great upside for an undrafted FA.

The Latest: The titans coaching staff singled out reyes as one of the impressive rookies in minicamp - nash's knee injury could open the door for him to get a leg up in the titans backup RB derby.

73. Adam Bergen

Small school receiving stud TE (lehigh) who has speed, hands, and toughness and now has a chip on his shoulder from going undrafted. The Cardinals have nothing long term at TE, and are starting an undrafted FA at TE as of right now (eric edwards). dont count bergen out... if reports out of camp are good, ill bump him up as high as the late 30s.

74. Jordan Beck

An incredible athletic talent who dominated at a lower level. Too bad he has Keith Brooking and Ed Hartwell blocking him.

75. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Incredibly Smart QB with less than ideal athleticism - Something about Mike Martz and a Harvard QB together is intriguing enough for a 5th round developmental pick. Warner came from a grocery store and the AFL, so imagine what Martz could do with a harvard man.

76. Dan Cody

77. Matt Roth

78. Daryl Blackstock

I know a lot of people are going to have problems with the rankings of these 3, but i refer you to my earlier comment about 3-4 OLBs and how hard it is for them to be startable because of the weak tackle numbers. Blackstock is blocked by a guy very similar to him in Dansby - its hard to see him landing a long term starting job in arizona. dont get me wrong, i love the talent of these guys, but i just dont see great things in their fantasy future.

79. Rasheed Marshall MOVING UP

Worth a look as he has great open field running ability, and SF had enough faith in his ability to develop to use a 5th on him. He'll have jerry sullivan, one of the best WR coaches in the business working with him, and SF lacks a clear #1 or #2 WR of the future. worth a flier this late.

The Latest: Sullivan says marshall is progressing nicely and nolan said he may even compete for the #3 job.

80. Craig Bragg

A very solid dependable WR. He wont end up being a game breaking WR, but will make plays to help his team. Bragg has to pass Murphy and Ferguson to become a fantasy factor long term, but he is solid enough to take advantage of the opportunity if the shortcomings in murphy and ferguson's games outweigh their productivity.

81. Roydell Williams MOVING DOWN

The most polished rookie WR on a team with no one set beyond WR3, Williams could contribute right away. He is a dependable possession WR, a role that neither of the starting WR in tennessee excels at. I see Roydell being a solid Bobby Engram type WR who could put up surprising numbers this year if Calico gets hurt again and Tenn doesnt bring in a vet.

82. Erasmus James

Another ranking that people will be unhappy with. I am not sold on this guy's game outside of his pure pass rush moves. His injury history is very checkered. I do admit that he could be a solid DE if he stays healthy and rounds out his game because he will be part of one of the most talented D-lines in the NFL.

83. TA McClendon MOVING DOWN

Was as good as Clarett in their freshman year, but like Clarett, basically imploded after that standout year. McClendon's history of injuries and less than 100% play made him go undrafted. Luckily for him, the #3 tailback in atlanta, jason wright, is nothing special. IF TA sticks on the falcons, you never know... if this bruiser can get his mojo working again, he could impress if dunn and/or duckett get hurt - and they arent known for durability.

6/5: some reports that deandra cobb is in the lead to be the RB3 in atlanta - he may be in the top 100 soon instead of TA.

84. Kay Jay Harris

A size/speed freak of an RB who is really not inferior to Jacobs talent wise, but went undrafted, and may have contend with ricky williams's return making it hard for him to make the active roster. Still with the RB premium and chance that Harris will make a roster and get a shot to get some carries somewhere down the line with the RB injury frequency, you shouldnt ignore him in the last round of your rookie draft.

85. Goo Wallace

Fits the steelers ILB profile perfectly. The steelers are more than happy to part with high priced talent when the youngsters come along. If Goo develops well, he should be starting in pittsburgh in a few years.

The Latest: Wallace signed and is ready to get down to business.

86. Carlos Rogers

87. Pac Man Jones

Very solid CB prospects who should put up nice tackle numbers because they will get picked on. Still I just dont see CBs outside of the very best holding value in dynasty leagues, so I would pass on them for all but the most speculative offensive prospects - the long longshots.

88. Josh Bullocks MOVING UP

Should be in the mix to start at FS for new orleans down the line, but bullocks is more of a ballhawk than a hitter, i dont see much in his fantasy future.

The Latest: Bullocks has impressive in minicamp and is playing some with the first team defense.

89. Derek Anderson

A tank with an arm to match - maybe Billick can work his magic? Like Orlovsky, on a team with an incumbent who only has a few years left to prove that he is not a bust.

90. Matt Cassel

Go ahead, laugh. You might have laughed if someone said Brady, not Henson was the future star QB at michigan. The Pats brass didnt - they saw something in Brady, and now they see something in Cassel - all picks at this point are guesswork, so ill defer to the pats judgment with this developmental pick.. Cassel was a talented enough athlete to play some TE, so there's some upside here with good coaching.

91. Ryan Grant

A very solid "see the hole, hit the hole" back who has a very good size/speed ratio for an undrafted FA - he could seize the role as backup to tiki barber with a good camp - he'll never be a feature back, but he could be a decent 1st and 2nd down back in an RBBC if he hits his ceiling and gets more physical.

92. Anthony Davis

extremely productive but short - quentin griffin got a shot, so davis could too, but he's still a longshot and not worth consideration until the late rounds of your draft.

The Latest: Davis's running looks good, receiving, not so much. He'll be battling Ran Carthon for the RB4 spot in indy.

93. Lionel Gates

Gates could be the primary backup to willis mcgahee. Gates is a bigger version of Pearman, a "do everything ok, but nothing great" RB - Played with Shelton and Michael Bush in Louisville, so has never carried the load, but seems to have the size and physical style to move the chains. must draft for mcgahee owners.

The Latest: The Bills signed Reshard Lee. He and Gates should be the top candidates to be McGahee's backup.

94. JR Russell

Similar to Brandon Jones a physical big guy who uses his frame to take advantage of smaller DBs. I like Russell and Jones about equally as future #3 types.

95. Sean Considine

Very solid prospect at S who should inherit dawkins job down the line.

96. Nick Collins

A project at DB who is in one of the worst D backfields in the league. Im not bullish on anyone in that unit.

The Latest: The safeties are so bad in green bay that a project like collins may actually start.

97. Derrick Wimbush

A dominant small school RB who looked good in the all star games - Another solid flier pick for the last round of your rookie draft if you go 6+ rounds. Wide open long term situation in Jacksonville means he has a shot long term, even if its a small one. He's shown he can be a workhorse, so if he hits, he could hit big.

98. Marcus Spears

3-4 DEs rarely do enough fantasy-wise to be startable, but Spears has the talent to do it - still he's a very marginal fantasy prospect because of his position.

99. Wesley Duke

The obligatory basketball player being converted to TE pick.

The Latest: Duke is carrying a football with him everywhere he goes.

100. Adam Seward

A real sleeper who could emerge at MLB in carolina down the line if dan morgan breaks down for good.

 
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ffchamp1

Footballguy
1. Cadillac Williams MOVING UP

well there you have it, caddy is #1. At this point I still have no idea whose career will be the best, so lets just go with the guy with the most innate talent (and therefore highest ceiling).

2. Cedric Benson MOVING UP

6/5: Jones unfazed by Benson's presence

3. Ronnie Brown MOVING DOWN

5/21: Well the ricky rumors are strong enough that you have to knock Brown down to 3rd. He's still a great RB talent, but you just might have to wait a few years for him to be a fantasy RB1/RB2, and that makes Benson and Williams more attractive. Could actually be a value in dynasty drafts now if he makes it into the middle of the 1st. if the ricky comeback is official, I would try to trade for Brown from his owner if they are down on him because they wanted immediate production.

6/5: weight could be an issue for williams

salary issue may stall williams return

4. JJ Arrington

6/5: Cards RB position wide open

written back in may: Benson 1st - not the receiving threat brown is, and tjones role is an issue at least for now, but i dont see how you draft Benson without having a plan to run him into the ground, Benson should be a startable fantasy RB right away. Williams 2nd because of Gruden liking to use role playing backs - although I see Williams with his vision/balance/cuts/willingness to run inside as the one with highest upside of this group. Arrington is still a strong 4th... could be the most productive, and in a possibly explosive offense. You should be happy to get any of these guys. there are rumors about ricky's return, and saban does not seem to be against it. ( link  ) I almost moved Brown down because of it, but the chances are so slim that i dont really want to acknowledge it in my rankings - still,  i guess if you are looking for something to separate the big 3, this could be it. Benson still seems like the safest, Caddy the most talented, Brown has no one contesting him... Your guess is as good as mine as to who has the best career

5. Braylon Edwards

Megatalent in brutal situation with crowded WR corps and rookie QB. Frye is a leader well-respected by his teammates, so its a plus that they can develop together. Could develop into #1 do everything WR a la Chad Johnson - but also has young WR Davis and Bryant to share with. Long term, should be the #1 option in the browns passing attack, his ceiling depends on whether Frye develops as a QB. Edwards is still the top WR on the board because he has the skills and talent to do everything - YAC, deep jumpballs, tough catches, fades - he's the total fantasy package at WR.

5/9: even more solid at #5 with winslow out for the year, and possibly for his career, as KWII would have taken a big piece of the receiving pie. Braylon hurt his groin in mincamp, but should be fine.

6/5: edwards makes strong impression on dilfer

6. Mark Clayton

imo, a cant miss talent - almost zero risk. Baltimore is not the most prolific passing offense, but I see him emerging as the #1 receiving option there down the line - I love his technique and have always thought he looked like an NFL WR in college - i know thats vague, but its a "know it when you see it" thing. I see him as almost a sure thing to be a top 20 WR for his prime with some top 10 finishes. Clayton goes this high because he is more polished and complete than any of the other 1st round WRs, if you like upside more than certain production, you might bump him down.

5/9: All reports out of ravens camp are glowing ( link ) despite the hammy injury.

5/19: Clayton moves in with Boller

6/5: Im this close to moving clayton up to 5th. Congrats if you get this guy in your dynasty league.

7. Frank Gore MOVING UP

How much faith do you have in Barlow? adjust up or down accordingly. I was thinking Gore would be a steal in the mid late 20s a few months ago... I love Gore as a NFL prospect and expect success. He's got the build, vision, and approach to be a solid NFL feature back. He's getting stronger and we never got to see him at top form in college. His work ethic and attitude are unquestioned - all adds up to a decent chance at sticking as a #1 back long term in SF which would be a coup at this pick. UP FROM 13. After more thought, i decided that Gore should be higher than moats or shelton, as i think all 3 have about the same chance of achieving their best possible role, but only gore would be an everydown back. Also, from a pure natural talent perspective, gore is the best of the 3. if mcgahee and jamal lewis can do it, then why not gore? worth the risk at #7.

5/9: this ranking may raise some eyebrows, but i stand by it - reports out of minicamp about gore are positive so far: ( link )

( link )

6/5: another profile of gore

8. Eric Shelton

At the absolute worst, you get TJ Duckett (who still might have some good years ahead of him) - if foster continues to be injury prone, i think you get Stephen Davis. A perfect marriage of offensive philosophy, role, and abilities. If Carolina's D becomes dominant (and it could), Shelton could become their Jerome Bettis, just brutalizing defenses in the 4th quarter.

5/9: Steadfast on this ranking - He's the new stephen davis, bank on it. unbelievable proficiency in the red zone means fantasy gold. Shelton feels like he has the confidence of his team, and is happy to have college teammate stefan lefors on the panthers ( link )

6/5: Davis's health still unsure

9. Mike Williams

Love the hands, Love the size and the way he uses it, but there's a risk here, and its that charles rogers learns how to land without breaking his collarbone. If that happens, I dont see how Mike becomes a big time fantasy producer - if rogers steps aside, The Williamses could be the next great WR tandem - spurring both of their numbers into #1 WR territory... if they get someone better to throw to them. Lack of YAC ability puts him 3rd in the WR class.

5/9: A sure thing, but will have to share with roy and charles - rogers got a plate put in his shoulder and bulked up ( link ), so who knows... it could be a murky situation for BMW for a while, so he goes below the guys who have legit shots to be featured RBs.

6/5: lions plan for 3 WR set(scroll down)

10. Alex D Smith

dual threat QBs dont grow on trees. should be the starter for at least 3 years - none of Carr/Harrington/Boller/Ramsey - the recent fantasy 1st round QB fantasy busts - could run like Smith - even if Smith is a bust on the field, i bet he's a top 15 QB due to the running stats. If he pans out, could be a top 7 or 8 fantasy QB. I think Plummer is a player halfway in between Smith's best and worst case scenarios. I understand why you would pass on smith if you are set long term at QB, but if you are lacking youth at QB, smith is a solid pick after the RBs. DOWN FROM 5. After more thought about the glut of decent fantasy QBs (the 5th to 15th best variety), I have bumped smith down, because even if he is an excellent fantasy QB, his trade value will be not that great unless he breaks into the top 5, and he's not a sure thing to upgrade your QB position if you already have one of that large 2nd tier. still the value pick at 10.

5/9: still liking the value at 10 - even higher if you need a QB. Smith's brains and poise showed in his first minicamp, and he seems to have the dedication and ability to be as good as he possibly can be. not exciting, but a very safe pick because he's too smart/high character to be a complete bust. ( link )

11. Troy Williamson

Williamson is a one-dimensional deep threat, sorry. Dont think that he can do everything moss did - moss's success is setting unreasonable expectations for williamson. Burleson is going to become Pepper's security blanket and go to guy in tough situations, not williamson. I may eat my words, but i see his upside as ashley lelie type numbers - although he's extremely likely to hit it. He will go much higher than he should in most dynasty rookie drafts. Bust risk drops him out of top 10.

5/9: No change in my rankings, williamson still needs to develop before he's a complete WR, and Burleson's the man for now. ( link ) I do like the upside of a deep WR in a Culpepper offense, but williamson carries more of a limited upside risk than the top 3 WRs, who all have more complete games.

5/19: Williamson gains confidence

6/5: Williamson looks good in minicamp, gets over drops

12. Ryan Moats

A great talent in a great situation, but I wonder if there will ever be a true feature back in philly's offense. Letting westbrook walk next year makes sense, and moats is like a more elusive version of westbrook. I think he has the capacity to become a very good pass catching RB, and fill westbrook's role perfectly.

5/9: philly could always bring in someone else (henry, edge?) or draft another RB next year - but my money is on the shifty moats impressing the eagles coaches enough to hand the reins over to him next year, and let westbrook and his contract demands become someone else's problem. Moats has the talent to be better than westbrook and make westbrook obsolete for the 2006 eagles. link to a good profile of moats

5/19: Moats learning playbook... just in case

6/5: moats feeling at home

13. Reggie Brown MOVING UP

Reggie Brown is to TO what Reggie Wayne is to Marvin Harrison - a steady WR who while not the biggest, fastest, or most explosive, is a great route runner with dependable hands and will benefit from a good QB and defenses keying on their future HOF partner. Like Wayne, he can put up very good numbers despite not being a true #1. The Mark Clayton of the 2nd tier - should reach his ceiling, but its not as high as his peers.

5/9: UP bye bye Fred Ex. right after brown looks tremendous in minicamp  ( link ) Brown could start right away and not look back.

5/19: Brown will be asked to make immediate impact

6/5: eagles fond of brown

14. Vernand Morency

I keep coming back to the same thing - the way he took over games in the big XII last year, just devastating defenses late in the game with his cutting ability and elusiveness. I felt then, and I do now, that he can be a good RB for a ball control team - although he's not the most physical RB. I think he at least gets a few series a game. Dom Davis got dinged up last year in the first half, and Hollings and Wells were no threat to take his job, so he started when he got healthy and put up big numbers in the second half. This year Morency may impress enough for the job to not be there when Davis comes back if he misses games again.

15. Marion Barber

I really like Barber as a NFL prospect because of his low determined running style. I think he can be successful if given the chance. Julius Jones is a tough RB to be behind, he was extremely impressive last year, and i would think that Barber would have to put up eye-popping numbers to displace Jones permanently. Maybe down the line with another team Barber could break out, and there's always the chance that Jones suffers another serious injury, but Barber seems buried to me. RB premium dictates a pick, but youll have to be patient.

16. Ciatrick Fason

Fason is a project at RB, still very raw, but he flashed the kind of all around running ability and game that an NFL feature back needs. The Vikes RB situation stands to get clearer next year if it gets pared down to him and Moore. Put me in the camp of people who think Moore is good enough that this is RBBC at best. Also dont put it past Minnesota to draft an RB early next year. RB premium dictates a pick here, but his future is cloudy.

5/21: SOD's situation doesnt change Fason's ranking because i didnt think he would be a factor in minnesota long term anyway.

17. Aaron Rodgers MOVING DOWN

You have to wait a year, sure, but Rodgers is still a decent talent at QB, dont fool yourself. He should be able put up chad pennington type numbers, and has upside above that because he's going to inherit a good WR corps and a guy to grow with in practice this year in Murphy, and a passing offense that can yield very good QB stats. Like Smith, bump down if youre set at QB for the future.

Rodgers has time to grow

6/5: DOWN from 14 I have yet to anything terribly encouraging about Rodgers. Its beginning to appear that he's more a developmental guy than a QB who will be ready to step in and play a high level in the first few years of his career. Ill take the developmental RBs over a developmental QB.

Rodgers looks overwhelmed in camp, meets Favre

18. Charlie Frye

I would roll the dice on the MAC QB success continuing. Frye is another intangibles QB with athleticism and a competitive fire to match. He'll become the leader of the offense and he's got a very good foursome of WR to work with.

5/9: UP Frye grew up dreaming of becoming a Brown. that's pretty cool.

6/5: Dilfer has taken Frye under his wing - wish we hearing something like this news about Rodgers/Favre.

19. Alex Smith (TE) MOVING UP

Gruden will make use of him in the passing offense, count on it. Could easily outproduce miller.

5/9: sounds like Gruden is happy ( link ) I am very close to putting smith above heath miller. ]

5/12: The more time I have to think about what kind of damage Gruden can do with a TE that opens up the middle of the field (remember, galloway's one asset is straight line speed to stretch the field), the more i like smith's prospects. ( link

) even though he went after miller, i think he is a more explosive receiver than miller, and in a better passing offense.

20. Heath Miller

Could become ben's #1 red zone target. could become mark bruener II. run first offense is not good for his fantasy prospects - i see limited upside - never breaking the top 5 fantasy TEs.

5/9: UP unexpected great news that he was able to go in minicamp ( link )

6/5: Q&A with miller

21. Mark Bradley

This may seem high to a lot of people, but i think he's the #1 WR in chicago come 07 - he's like a rawer, bigger version of clayton - very smooth and a threat to take it the house after the catch.

5/9: by all signs, bradley has his head on straight. his commitment to the entire game is impressive  (link  ) i think he's an equal talent to jones and white, with a better makeup.

22. Matt Jones MOVING DOWN

Has a chance to become Leftwich's go-to guy - and that could be huge in fantasy terms because byron is a gunslinger. definitely not for the risk averse, as he still has to learn the position, and does seem very laid back for a big time football player. Has Upside to match the WRs above him, but risk they that dont carry.  speculative WR talent should always be behind the speculative RB talent. If you really believe in Matt Jones, just trade for him in the offseason next year when his owner gets impatient, and take a more solid investment like Frye or Brown.

5/9: gets hurt right away - drew bennett ominously said the hardest thing for jones would be adjusting to the toll WR takes on your legs. also read that the pats didnt care for him ( link ) - i still cant get past how laid back he was - the last guy i remember seeming that laid back was kordell stewart, and we all know how that turned out :bag: steelers fan.

5/19: Jones still out  ( link )

6/5: Jones Practices

23. Alvin Pearman MOVING UP

Pearman was quietly very good at virginia last year, and still within the two year recovery window from an ACL tear. He can do everything well, and i think stands just as good a chance as Jones and Toefield to emerge if Fred's knee is balky. The more i think about Pearman, the more I like - Taylor should not be a factor by 07 and Pearman has hidden upside because of the ongoing ACL recovery - if Taylor's knee is still a problem in july, put Pearman in your top 15.

5/9: fred taylor may be hurt worse than first thought... inching up the board as the news on taylor gets worse.  ( link ) one of the most important players to pay attention to in camp.

5/19: Pearman can do it all

6/5: the news on taylor's knee is still suspiciously quiet. watch this situation closely when camp opens - if the coaches are impressed with pearman, i would seriously consider him in fason/morency/barber tier.

24. Jason Campbell

I like Campbell as a talent, including his running ability and nice deep ball - things that can add up to fantasy success - but washington is just a fouled up organization. I can see the team going in the tank soon. They cant bring in a real #1 WR for him next year through the draft because they traded their first for him. Im not excited about his WR corps long term. A guy who has the starting job handed to him is still worth a pick here, but im afraid that campbell's fortunes are tied to washington's and i dont like them. Maybe he could become a solid fantasy QB because they are playing from behind a lot, but i feel that when the inevitable axe falls in 3 or 4 years because the team is putrid, Campbell will be relegated to QB purgatory.

5/9: getting more scared about him as he's a gibbs guy, and gibbs may not be around for much longer... ( link )

25. Roddy White

see Williamson, except Vick does not throw a great deep ball. I dont see this as a good fit at all, and i expect White to be a first round WR bust - but his talent is still worth a pick in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

5/9: White said he was starstruck at being on the same field as vick - he thought he was pretty bad, but mora was more optimistic ( link )

26. Thomas Davis

I dont care if he's SS or LB, Davis will be the #1 defensive playmaker from this draft. He's got big play hitting instincts, including great pass rushing skills for someone his size. He's in a defense that could be on the verge of greatness. The undisputed #1 IDP on my board.

27. Andrew Walter

Could end up being the best fantasy QB in the draft if he inherits randy moss and jerry porter. questions about the shoulder, but has the upside of the QBs ahead of him, just a longer wait for a shot at the job.

5/9: Norv says they had walter #1 on their QB board. no real news out of minicamp ( link )

28. Maurice Clarett

Denver is a great situation, and this is about where the tremendous possible reward balances out the tremendous known risk. not to mention that no denver RB is safe from shanny's itchy trigger finger on RB draft picks. I doubt he's around at 27 in most drafts, i doubt he's even around at 20.

5/19: Clarett was featured on ESPN recently...Bell think Mo has a long road ahead

29. Adrian McPherson

like, clarett, a total boom/bust pick. at least only aaron brooks is blocking him. i have to wonder if new orleans is the best city for a guy with character issues, lots of chances to slip up there.

30. Vincent Jackson

Will be groomed to be the big go-to WR in SD, but dont expect much til 07, and there's risk, as with any project player - also hard to see anyone but gates being the #1 passing option.

5/9: sounds like Jackson's got his head on straight  ( link )

31. Chris Henry MOVING UP

5/9 new addition: apparently only the bengals were seriously interested in henry, and he got the endorsement of chad johnson and housh - definitely a good foot to start on for a kid with character issues  ( link )

6/5: Henry Impressive in Camp

32. Odell Thurman

Nate Webster's got one foot in the grave and Thurman is a better talent than Landon Johnson. He should be in the middle of the cincy defense for awhile.

33. Barrett Ruud

Ruud's path the starting MLB slot in tampa is even more open than thurman's path in cincy.

34. Derrick Johnson

Could get mired at SLB, and there is some risk of a bust if his playing style (unwillingness to take on blocks) doesnt translate to the pros.

35. Cedric Houston

Houston has one year to convince the jets that he's their RB of the future... His talent is good enough to take a chance on him here - could be a jackpot pick.

5/9: Houston has a thyroid condition that he is being treated for (link )

36. Kyle Orton

Remember this guy was considered a possible #1 overall early last year. Brees turned out okay from the same purdue spread offense. Grossman is anything but entrenched. Orton is good enough to get a shot on another team in 3 or 4 years if Grossman pans out, so patience may be necessary. Still love the upside this late. Must draft for Grossman owners.

5/9: orton looks good in mincamp, but has a long way to go. ( link )

5/19: Orton's progress pleases Turner

37. Dan Orlovsky

Poor Man's Roethlisberger. A leader and a big sturdy athletic guy who will take hits to deliver the throws. I dont think Harrington turns the corner - If Orlovsky can win the job down the line he gets the Williamsssess and Rogers to throw to. Like Orton, ill take that gamble in the 30s. Must draft for Harrington owners.

5/10: Orlovsky is a "pleasant surprise" in minicamp and gets more reps than originally planned ( link )

38. Stefan LeFors

Loved the pick - Delhomme is the perfect mentor for him. I think down the line Lefors becomes a starter somewhere and does well - will be a great backup to have for delhomme owners. One of the 3 true dual threats QBs along with Smith and Mcpherson... fantasy gold. One of my favorite sleepers - will reward patient owners down the line, possibly earlier if delhomme gets hurt.

5/9: Steve Smith has already given Lefors the nickname "baby jake"

39. Brandon Jacobs MOVING UP

A big back in a situation where he probably wont have a chance to be the feature back - I see him as a very overrated player in dynasty drafts right now who is really equal to fantasy afterthoughts like nehemiah broughton and kay jay harris long term. I could be completely wrong about Jacobs but he was just not enough of a dominant workhorse at the lower level for me to think his game will translate to the pros - i like the talent of more classic workhorse type small school RBs like Derrick Wimbush and DeWhitt Betterson just as much as Jacobs and he is only this high because of where he was drafted.

6/5: UP Accorsi loves jacobs

40. Lofa Tatupu

Should get every chance to succeed as the MLB in seattle. Some bust risk because of size and some other shortcomings in his game, but you have to love the opportunity.

41. Alfred Fincher

NO's LB situation is a mess, but I think Fincher has the leadership and talent to emerge as the MLB when the dust settles, maybe as soon as this season.

42. Channing Crowder

Sideline to Sideline talent at MLB - I cant get past the kendrell bell comparison in my head - oozing with ability but injury prone.

43. David Pollack

SLB will not produce big tackle numbers, but with his motor and marvin lewis's defensive mind, I see Pollack producing a lot of big plays on D.

44. Demarcus Ware

45. Shawne Merriman

46. Kevin Burnett

Maybe I am just wrong on this analysis, but I feel that 3-4 OLB is a graveyard for fantasy LBs. even if they get double digit sacks, their tackle numbers are so anemic that it is impossible to count on production week to week. if you think one of these guys (including pollack) is going to become an unstoppable player and defy the typical production of a 3-4 OLB, feel free to bump them up - id rather have a quality offensive prospect or an LB with the natural skills and opportunity to end up in a big tackle position.

47. David Greene

A Hardnosed winner who oozes intangibles and could get a shot in 2 or 3 years, either for seattle or in a free agency/trade situation. Not exciting, but should be a Dilfer/Fielder style game manager Qb at worst.

6/5: greene talks about being a rookie

48. Craphonso Thorpe MOVING DOWN

If healthy, he'll be the best WR on KC by 2006 - a possible top threat in a prolific passing offense - worth the risk as he has skills to be a true #1 WR.

5/9: Thorpe didnt flash his speed and seemed a little rawer than i had hoped. still among the best of the 3rd tier WRs, but not without questions.  ( link )

5/21: down as reality is setting in - thorpe is still raw and a developmental WR with an injury issue - not worth higher than a 4th.

6/5: Vermeil: "Thorpe Has a Long Way to Go"

49. Jerome Mathis

Have to take a flier on the chance this X-factor guy learns the finer points of receiving and becomes the #2 in houston - still developmental WR without #1 potential shouldnt go higher than the 4th round.

Mathis turning heads with speed

50.Brodney Pool

As a natural FS, he wont ever put up huge tackle numbers, but he should be entrenched as a starter for a long term, and is probably the safest bet among IDPs to hit his ceiling after Davis imp.

51. Damien Nash MOVING DOWN

One Chris Brown injury away from getting a look in tennessee IF he can make the team. has the build and running style to succeed in the NFL, like clarett a major character risk. still the RB scarcity means he merits a pick here. Good insurance for brown owners here. Watch to see who out of Reyes, Nash, and Terry Jackson wins the primary backup job to chris brown and rank them here.

( Nash Happy to be picked by Titans )

5/19: UP a couple of spots... the more brown gets hurt and that turf toe lingers, the more open the RB of the future position in tennessee looks. Nash is probably the most talented RB on the roster after Brown, and even if a vet gets brought in this year, Nash could steal the long term RB spot next year with solid development.

6/5: DOWN - Nash hurt his knee - could lose the best opportunity to make an impression in camp with the backup RB slot wide open.

52. Larry Brackins

Ponder this: If Brackins had gone to college and played up to his talent level instead of going to the NFL, he likely would have been a very high draft pick next year. definitely worth a flier here.

5/12: great writeup on brackins

53. Brandon Jones MOVING UP

The last of the trio of titan rooks, and probably the one with the least upside. Also the third of the trio of oklahoma WRs, and clearly the least talented. Still he has a good frame and knows how to use it, Jones is also a physical WR who will help with his blocking and special teams play. Should be interesting to see if competition helps the titans rooks raise their level of play.

6/5: Jones impresses in minicamp, meshes with mcnair

54. Jerome Collins

size/speed/strength freak a la ben watson, but raw at the TE position. Guess what, he was a WR in high school... Antonio Gates, anyone? worth a flier here - "swing for the fences" pick.

5/9: ( profile of collins )

55. Terrence Murphy

Driver should be getting long in the tooth just about the time this guy is ready to explode - I like that he and rodgers get to practice on the same unit all year. A good catch and run WR who could be a nice compliment to Walker if he sharpens his focus.

5/9: doesnt quite have the upside of other 3rd tier WRs henry thorpe and jackson.

56. Courtney Roby

A tough dedicated catch and run burner similar to another Indiana alum, Antawn Randle-el. Titans long term WR picture is cloudy, but his talent is equal to some WR above him on this list.

6/5: Roby looks good in short/intermediate routes

57. Kevin Everett

A very talented receiving TE who does not have any stiff competition long term for the TE of the future slot in buffalo. Good value pick for patient owners - upside not far off of miller and smith, and ACL tear will make him a forgotten man in your draft. steal him in the 4th/5th.

6/5: everett's surgery successful

58.Antrel Rolle

Plays CB like a safety. I would rank him as the 3rd surest thing among IDPs in this draft, but CBs have to be truly standout statistically to have any value in dynasty leagues.

59. Roscoe Parrish

I see him and Darren Sproles as dante hall x-factor players, but parrish could prove me wrong if his toughness makes up for his small frame. Still blocked long term by moulds and evans, so im not bullish on parrish.

60. Fred Gibson

Honestly not that far off of Henry and White talent wise, Gibson is an intriguing big play talent who could become a stud WR if he works hard to learn the complete WR game. For now he will be used strictly to stretch the field and will have to work his way up through the ranks in Pittsburgh - Lots of upside, but wont be a factor soon, and could easily be another pinkston.

61. Kirk Morrison

Long term, the middle of the oakland LB corps is wide open - Morrison is not quite as talented as the LBs above him, but his long term opportunity is excellent.

62. Robert McCune

The future Jeremiah Trotter of the skins defense.

63. Lance Mitchell

Talent-wise was rated close to equal to Derrick Johnson before his knee injury. Dropped in the draft because he wasnt all the way back, but was constantly improving as the 04 season went on, and could be the #1 IDP from this draft if he gets all the way back - a true do-everything MLB.

64. Donte Nicholson

The best SS in the draft after Thomas Davis. May have to wait a bit for a starting gig if jermaine phillips hits his stride as a player, but nicholson's profile as the classic big hitter SS merits a pick at this point.

65. Bo Scaife

Believe it or not, Scaife is close to, if not equal to the TEs above him in terms of receiving talent. He was Vince's Young security blanket at UT and can make tough catches in pressure situations. He also has a lot of trouble staying healthy and Ben Troupe to contend with. If Scaife can find a way to stay healthy, he could be a second day steal, the kind of TE that plays like a WR over the middle.

6/5: Troupe Hurt - this could open the door for scaife if troupe doesnt heal quickly.

66. Mike Nugent

A kicker?!?! Nuge kicks for a conservative coach that loves to settle for FGs and you should bump him up if your league has a penalty for misses or bonus for 50+ yarders because he's accurate even from long distance.

6/5: Nugent Has mentality to excel under pressure

67. Justin Tuck

Will get to learn from strahan and have another up and coming DE, Umeniyora on the other side long term. I like his prospects to be a starting quality DE in start 2 DE leagues.

68. Marlin Jackson

Like Pool and Rolle, a very solid player who has a low bust risk - and while he should put up good numbers as a cover 2 CB (or possibly FS), only the very best CBs have value in dynasty leagues, so its hard to recommend taking him before decent offensive prospects or quality LB prospects.

69. Darren Sproles MOVING UP

Blocked for even the backup role by Chatman and Turner. Should be fun to watch but no better than kevin faulk for fantasy.

6/5: UP FROM 60 - maybe his talent is enough to overcome his size down the line...Sproles has defenders grasping at air

70. OJ Atogwe

the only safety on st louis's roster that can cover. should be starting soon. a very solid player, but archuleta and the cover 2 defense will keep his tackle numbers modest.

71. Leroy Hill

A smallish playmaking LB who could land the WLB job in seattle long term. keep an eye on him, he could produce at the same level as the elite IDP prospects in this draft down the line.

72. Walter Reyes MOVING UP

A guy who could easily go shooting up this list with a good camp. If the titans dont bring in a vet, the potentially very valuable role of backup to Chris Brown will be up for grabs, and Reyes is one of the candidates. He was extremely productive in 2003, and was limited by injuries for most of 2004. He is a speed back who needs to get more physical, but has great upside for an undrafted FA.

6/5: UP from 56 Coaching staff likes Reyes

73. Adam Bergen

Small school receiving stud TE (lehigh) who has speed, hands, and toughness and now has a chip on his shoulder from going undrafted. The Cardinals have nothing long term at TE, and are starting an undrafted FA at TE as of right now (eric edwards). dont count bergen out... if reports out of camp are good, ill bump him up as high as the late 30s.

74. Jordan Beck

An incredible athletic talent who dominated at a lower level. Too bad he has Keith Brooking and Ed Hartwell blocking him.

75. Ryan Fitzpatrick MOVING UP

Incredibly Smart QB with less than ideal athleticism - Something about Mike Martz and a Harvard QB together is intriguing enough for a 5th round developmental pick. Warner came from a grocery store and the AFL, so imagine what Martz could do with a harvard man.

6/5: UP a few spots  fitzpatrick catches on fast

76. Dan Cody

77. Matt Roth

78. Daryl Blackstock

I know a lot of people are going to have problems with the rankings of these 3, but i refer you to my earlier comment about 3-4 OLBs and how hard it is for them to be startable because of the weak tackle numbers. Blackstock is blocked by a guy very similar to him in Dansby - its hard to see him landing a long term starting job in arizona. dont get me wrong, i love the talent of these guys, but i just dont see great things in their fantasy future.

79. Craig Bragg

A very solid dependable WR. He wont end up being a game breaking WR, but will make plays to help his team. Bragg has to pass Murphy and Ferguson to become a fantasy factor long term, but he is solid enough to take advantage of the opportunity if the shortcomings in murphy and ferguson's games outweigh their productivity.

80. Roydell Williams MOVING DOWN

The most polished rookie WR on a team with no one set beyond WR3, Williams could contribute right away. He is a dependable possession WR, a role that neither of the starting WR in tennessee excels at. I see Roydell being a solid Bobby Engram type WR who could put up surprising numbers this year if Calico gets hurt again and Tenn doesnt bring in a vet.

6/5: well it looks like jones and roby are making more of an impression than williams - you have to knock him down considerably because the odd man out early may be on the outside looking in for a while.

81. Erasmus James

Another ranking that people will be unhappy with. I am not sold on this guy's game outside of his pure pass rush moves. His injury history is very checkered. I do admit that he could be a solid DE if he stays healthy and rounds out his game because he will be part of one of the most talented D-lines in the NFL.

82. TA McClendon MOVING DOWN

Was as good as Clarett in their freshman year, but like Clarett, basically imploded after that standout year. McClendon's history of injuries and less than 100% play made him go undrafted. Luckily for him, the #3 tailback in atlanta, jason wright, is nothing special. IF TA sticks on the falcons, you never know... if this bruiser can get his mojo working again, he could impress if dunn and/or duckett get hurt - and they arent known for durability.

6/5: some reports that deandra cobb is in the lead to be the RB3 in atlanta - he may be in the top 100 soon instead of TA.

83. Kay Jay Harris

A size/speed freak of an RB who is really not inferior to Jacobs talent wise, but went undrafted, and may have contend with ricky williams's return making it hard for him to make the active roster. Still with the RB premium and chance that Harris will make a roster and get a shot to get some carries somewhere down the line with the RB injury frequency, you shouldnt ignore him in the last round of your rookie draft.

84. Goo Wallace

Fits the steelers ILB profile perfectly. The steelers are more than happy to part with high priced talent when the youngsters come along. If Goo develops well, he should be starting in pittsburgh in a few years.

85. Carlos Rogers

86. Pac Man Jones

Very solid CB prospects who should put up nice tackle numbers because they will get picked on. Still I just dont see CBs outside of the very best holding value in dynasty leagues, so I would pass on them for all but the most speculative offensive prospects - the long longshots.

87. Derek Anderson

A tank with an arm to match - maybe Billick can work his magic? Like Orlovsky, on a team with an incumbent who only has a few years left to prove that he is not a bust

88. Matt Cassel

Go ahead, laugh. You might have laughed if someone said Brady, not Henson was the future star QB at michigan. The Pats brass didnt - they saw something in Brady, and now they see something in Cassel - all picks at this point are guesswork, so ill defer to the pats judgment with this developmental pick.. Cassel was a talented enough athlete to play some TE, so there's some upside here with good coaching.

89. Ryan Grant

A very solid "see the hole, hit the hole" back who has a very good size/speed ratio for an undrafted FA - he could seize the role as backup to tiki barber with a good camp - he'll never be a feature back, but he could be a decent 1st and 2nd down back in an RBBC if he hits his ceiling and gets more physical.

90. Anthony Davis

extremely productive but short - quentin griffin got a shot, so davis could too, but he's still a longshot and not worth consideration until the late rounds of your draft.

91. Lionel Gates

Gates could be the primary backup to willis mcgahee. Gates is a bigger version of Pearman, a "do everything ok, but nothing great" RB - Played with Shelton and Michael Bush in Louisville, so has never carried the load, but seems to have the size and physical style to move the chains. must draft for mcgahee owners.

6/5: reshard lee signed by the bills - should be gates main competition for the backup job.

92. Josh Bullocks

Should be in the mix to start at FS for new orleans down the line, but bullocks is more of a ballhawk than a hitter, i dont see much in his fantasy future.

93. JR Russell

Similar to Brandon Jones a physical big guy who uses his frame to take advantage of smaller DBs. I like Russell and Jones about equally as future #3 types.

94. Rasheed Marshall

Worth a look as he has great open field running ability, and SF had enough faith in his ability to develop to use a 5th on him. He'll have jerry sullivan, one of the best WR coaches in the business working with him, and SF lacks a clear #1 or #2 WR of the future. worth a flier this late.

95. Sean Considine

Very solid prospect at S who should inherit dawkins job down the line.

96. Nick Collins

A project at DB who is in one of the worst D backfields in the league. Im not bullish on anyone in that unit.

97. Derrick Wimbush

A dominant small school RB who looked good in the all star games - Another solid flier pick for the last round of your rookie draft if you go 6+ rounds. Wide open long term situation in Jacksonville means he has a shot long term, even if its a small one. He's shown he can be a workhorse, so if he hits, he could hit big.

98. Marcus Spears

3-4 DEs rarely do enough fantasy-wise to be startable, but Spears has the talent to do it - still he's a very marginal fantasy prospect because of his position.

99. Wesley Duke

The obligatory basketball player being converted to TE pick.

100. Adam Seward

A real sleeper who could emerge at MLB in carolina down the line if dan morgan breaks down for good.
Nice job Bloom.I was a bit suprised to see Bullocks ranked so low with the good press he has been getting however I do realize that they are not in pads.

Your comments on Lance Mitchell were spot on as was your comparison of Crowder to Bell in both talent and history.

I do not see Thurman having an easy path however to the starting gig. Johnson has a huge advantage over the raw Thurman, based on experience but I will agree that Thurman has the tools to eventually be the guy.

Keep an eye on Grigsby in KC and Speegle in CLE. Like the Fincher call as well.

Once again, nice job.

BTW, feel free to move Clayton up to 5 now.

Tom

 
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Weiner Dog

Footballguy
Great post, Bloom! Before starting a discussion on the Top-100 dynasty rookies, do you mind supplying the league scoring system used for your rankings?? Some leagues score IDP's equally, while other leagues only allot a fraction of the points.

 
Great post, Bloom! Before starting a discussion on the Top-100 dynasty rookies, do you mind supplying the league scoring system used for your rankings?? Some leagues score IDP's equally, while other leagues only allot a fraction of the points.
^What he said^. In my 2 leagues IDP's score just as much as the offensive players and in 1 of them they start going in the 1st rookie round, the other early 2nd. This year though, does not seem like a good year for rookie idp's.
 

Bloom

Moderator
i didnt write this with any particular system in mind except for the following:start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TEstart 2 DE, 1 DT, 3 LB, 2 S, 2 CBpassing TDs worth less than rushing/receiving TDsIDP scoring balances out so that top IDPs score significantly less (at least 100 pts less over a full season) than top offensive players.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Nice job Bloom.

I was a bit suprised to see Bullocks ranked so low with the good press he has been getting however I do realize that they are not in pads.

Your comments on Lance Mitchell were spot on as was your comparison of Crowder to Bell in both talent and history.

I do not see Thurman having an easy path however to the starting gig. Johnson has a huge advantage over the raw Thurman, based on experience but I will agree that Thurman has the tools to eventually be the guy.

Keep an eye on Grigsby in KC and Speegle in CLE. Like the Fincher call as well.

Once again, nice job.

BTW, feel free to move Clayton up to 5 now.

Tom
i like bullocks as a player more than a fantasy player. I just dont see him being physical enough to put up the kind of tackle numbers that make a safety startable in IDP leagues.Grigsby and Speegle are just outside the top 100 - others just outside include matt mccoy, michael boley, marvel underwood, jerome carter, gerald sensabaugh, james sanders, andre maddox, johnathan babineaux, mike patterson, shaun cody, and bryant mcfadden on the IDP side. these rankings will change a lot once we start hearing about how training camp is going.

 
Another guy to put on the radar is FS Kerry Rhodes. He is getting good reviews so far out of Jets camp.From the Sporting News:Rookie FS Kerry Rhodes, a fourth-round pick, is turning heads in the organized team activities. At 6-2, 210, he looks like a young Steve Atwater. He shows terrific range, able to play in a deep-halves scheme. The knock on him is whether he's physical enough, and he won't get a chance to prove that until the pads go on in training camp. The Jets aren't afraid to play rookies (see MLB Jonathan Vilma and S Erik Coleman last season), and if Rhodes develops as quickly as those two did, he could be paired with Coleman in the starting secondary.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Another guy to put on the radar is FS Kerry Rhodes. He is getting good reviews so far out of Jets camp.

From the Sporting News:

Rookie FS Kerry Rhodes, a fourth-round pick, is turning heads in the organized team activities. At 6-2, 210, he looks like a young Steve Atwater. He shows terrific range, able to play in a deep-halves scheme. The knock on him is whether he's physical enough, and he won't get a chance to prove that until the pads go on in training camp. The Jets aren't afraid to play rookies (see MLB Jonathan Vilma and S Erik Coleman last season), and if Rhodes develops as quickly as those two did, he could be paired with Coleman in the starting secondary.
i meant to list rhodes because of the opportunity he's going to have - good catch - reggie tongue is not going to be starting for much longer and jon mcgraw can not stay healthy.
 

Weiner Dog

Footballguy
Great post, Bloom!  Before starting a discussion on the Top-100 dynasty rookies, do you mind supplying the league scoring system used for your rankings??  Some leagues score IDP's equally, while other leagues only allot a fraction of the points.
^What he said^. In my 2 leagues IDP's score just as much as the offensive players and in 1 of them they start going in the 1st rookie round, the other early 2nd. This year though, does not seem like a good year for rookie idp's.
My League's scoring is probably similar to your's. The top LB's, DB's, and DL's typically score 10% and 25% less than the top WR's and RB's, respectively. However...we are required to start 4 LB's, 4 DB's, and 3 DL's. On the other hand, we only start 2 RB's and 3 WR's. These position requirements probably even the board a tad.
 

kellumsboys

Footballguy
thanks Bloomthis helped me getseveral players in my rookie draftChris Henry at #63 overall (I also have kelley washington)Charlie Frye #33Vernand Morency #26 ((I have D.Davis)

 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
outstanding work, bloom...thanx for the diligent updates during the pre-season.i almost always agree with your scouting eye/sense.where i differed, you anticipated it.primarily with a few DEs & CBs...you did specifically mention erasmus james' checkered medical history as a concern... if he is able to overcome that, i think talent-wise he is the real deal & will significantly out-perform this ranking... IN THE LONG TERM (few DEs star in their rookie season).you could be right about spears due to system/scheme concerns... an unknown is how much DAL actually lines up in a 3-4... will it be approaching 100% of the snaps? from what i have read he sounds like he could have a similar skill set to DT/DE-tweeners like kevin williams & richard seymour. his profile says he was one of the top TE & basketball recruits in the nation... with that kind of athleticism he could surprise with his disruptiveness... may never be a big sack guy & may have to rely on tackle numbers (a better aaron smith?).it should be interesting to see if roth plays more DE or LB... i like him better as the former... one reason that i am taking a wait and see with cody... you don't want that guy giving your pre-game speech. :)like you, i am not as high on pacman as many... his highlights showed a lot of INTs & returns, but that can be an erratic source of IDP points. the TEN system employs heavy use of man-on-man, & i don't recall rolle or dyson figuring prominently in the CB point leader mix in recent seasons... they just don't get the tackle opps, so unless you think pacman is going to get 6+ INTs (dunta robinson & gamble did in '04, but they also put up robust tackle numbers).rogers on the other hand seems to have a lot going for him. he looks like he has a very well rounded, complete game... non-nonsense tackler, advanced coverage & ball skills, & the speed, quickness & timing to be a force on the blitz. it is absolutely true that average CBs are a dime a dozen... when a large group of CBs are separated by merely a few points, there are plentiful waiver wire options, not clearly distinguishable by talent or scheme as to who might break out... i could see rating potential offensive sleepers & even make a case for the more speculative IDPs at impact positions (DE/LB/S) such as jordan beck. whereas a special CB like dunta robinson or chris gamble (i don't think there would be much dispute that robinson is special... atypical CB attributes include having kiper call him one of best tacklers at CB he has scouted & graded in the past decade, & his time at safety seems to have really honed his ball skills & sense of coverages... coyle said that gamble has the talent to emerge as the top CB from the '04 class)... or antoine winfield can be more valuable than a marginal DE/LB/S if they show the potential to put up LB-like tackle numbers.this is an interesting class in that i think rolle, marlin jackson & rogers all have the potential to early on (not necessarily as rookies) be top 10-20 DBs. maybe none of them will, but imo one or two of them could given their talent & potential. jackson has borderline safety size and is a solid tackler... being drafted into IND cover two, imo, represents one of the best convergences & intersections of talent & scheme in the entire draft... at any position, & on either side of the ball. rolle is a monster tackler, & i believe green/pendergast employ a zone defense. rogers should see a lot of balls playing opposite springs, he is a physical, rugged, hardnosed tackler & if DC robinson turns him loose like i expect, 3+ sacks are a distinct possibility.thanx again for your exemplary work... it was a big help in recent dynasty drafts. :) bob

 
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