The seasoned dynasty owner pays close attention to the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Correct player sizes, drills, and the all-important testing numbers. However, those 40 yard dash times tend to skew our thoughts and forget how players perform on the field. I decided to release my top 22 players before the combine to give you a baseline to form your own conclusions.
My rankings are based on standard PPR leagues and are for FF production because upside is very important.
Tier One
1) Keenan Allen WR Cal
6-3 210
2010: 46 receptions, 490 yards, 10.7 5 TD
2011: 98 receptions, 1343 yards, 13.7 6 TD
2012: 61 receptions, 737 yards, 12.1 6 TD
-Also has one passing, two rushing, and one return TD at Cal.
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald
Notes:
-Turned down a scholarship at Alabama to play FS to play WR at Cal with his half-brother QB Zach Maynard.
-Foot surgery in spring of 2012, MCL tear which ended his 2012 campaign.
Analysis:
- Very athletic for a guy his size. He can spin, juke, jump over defenders and makes plays in the open field. Good burst and speed. Don't think of him as a burner, but we're not talking about Alshon Jeffery here. Probably a 4.45 type of player on the field. Good route runner that uses his frame to box out defenders and is knowledgeable enough to settle into zones. Good hands, but body catches more than I would like. High points the football and comes up with some very clutch receptions when Cal needed him most.
FF wise:
-Keenan Allen is going to be a #1 WR in the NFL. He has the size to get those red zone TDs, the agility to break a big play, and the consistency to get receptions/yards week in and week out. He will be the 1.1 in most rookie drafts.
2) Eddie Lacy RB Alabama
5-10 220
2010: 56 carries 406 yards 7.3 6 TD, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 9.0 0 TD
2011: 95 carries 674 yards 7.1 7 TD, 11 receptions, 131 yards, 11.9 0 TD
2012: 184 carries 1182 yards 6.4 16 TD, 20 receptions, 172 yards, 8.6 1 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Frank Gore
Notes:
-Bothered by turf toe injury for 2 years.
Analysis:
- Big RB, 5-10 220(I’d guess he goes 230), with a bowling ball type of frame (think of a taller MJD or Doug Martin type of frame), lots of muscle on the bottom half. He bounces off defenders due to his frame. Strong runner that finishes off his runs very well and carries defenders for more yardage. Great feet for his size, which allows him to make good cuts to find a hole. Doesn’t possess great agility, but a very effective spin move and a solid jump cut. Tough to bring down in the open field, due to more decisiveness than making defenders miss. Very good vision and hits the hole hard, breaks through arm tackles with ease. Tough player, he has taken some shots but returns to action. While being a power runner, he’s an effective edge runner as well. Good hands, needs to have better technique in pass protection, although he has the size and willingness to be very effective in this area. Has had a few fumbles, mostly due to effort at the end of runs.
FF wise:
-Lacy has everything needed to be an every down RB at the next level and be an effective FF player. Situation and usage will be very telling. He won’t be a RB1(top 12) without a ton of touches, just doesn’t have the ability. But he has every bit the opportunity to be a RB2.
3) Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
6-3 205
2010(Hutchinson CC): 52 receptions, 908 yards, 17.5 9 TDs
-Patterson also added over 600 return yards with 3 TDs.
2011(Hutchinson CC): 61 receptions, 924 yards, 15.1 15 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 500 return yards with 3 TDs and almost 400 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
2012: 46 receptions, 778 yards, 16.9 5 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 800 return yards and 300 rushing yards in 2012.
Comparison: Taller Percy Harvin
Notes: Didn’t play football as a freshman or sophomore in high school. After a good final two seasons in high school, Patterson didn’t qualify academically and was forced to go to a Junior College. Transferring from a JUCO makes Patterson an unknown even though he had a good 2012 season in Tennessee.
Analysis:
I initially didn’t like Patterson, but I couldn’t ignore his potential. What makes Patterson special? He’s the most elusive 6’3 or taller player I’ve ever seen. It’s hard to believe how many defenders he made miss in the SEC this past season at his size. Patterson is athletic: 39 inch vertical and 10.33 100 meter dash. Very explosive and gets to top speed quickly. Not a true burner, probably a 4.45 type player, but it’s deceptive. High points the football very well and is a threat to score on every play. Playmaker is an understatement. He’s also a strong player that can overmatch DBs. Doesn’t explode out of his breaks very well and body catches way too much. The only time he extends his hands out to catch the football is when it’s outside of his framework. Needs to work on selling his routes more, at times he tips off his breaks which doesn’t help with separation. Patterson is raw and has many things to work on.
FF wise:
Patterson has the highest ceiling of any WR in this class and therefore is someone to obtain in your FF drafts. He also may not develop and be a player that constantly shows flashes, which can be frustrating. If you’re a gambler, Patterson is your guy.
Tier 2
4) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
6-1 200
2010: 51 receptions, 626 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 978 yards, 13.6 5 TDs
2012: 82 receptions, 1405 yards, 17.1 18 TDs
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Wayne(later in his career)
Notes:
Analysis:
The best route runner in the class hands down. Hopkins runs great routes by setting up defenders, changes speeds, explodes in/out of breaks, uses hands well, and consistently keeps routes within his frame. Hopkins does a good job of settling down in zones and doesn’t fade into coverage. Makes himself a big target by squaring his body and coming back to the QB. Attacks the football in the air and is very good at high pointing the football. Hopkins has great body control which helps in his route running and catching the football in traffic. Great hands catcher, didn’t see one standing body catch, and is great at snagging the ball out of the air(my ball mentality). Great sideline awareness, he gets his feet down and makes some wow plays. Not a burner, but doesn’t waste his speed due to his route running. Good acceleration and gets vertical quickly after the catch. Can make defenders miss, but it isn’t his forte. Should’ve made more plays this season, had a few drops. Sometimes he doesn’t win the battle with physical DBs.
FF wise:
Hopkins isn’t a flashy player, so he may drop in rookie drafts. But don’t be mistaken, you want him on your team. He could turn out to be that boring player that gets 1,000 yards every season and people keep waiting for another WR to replace him. Highest floor of any WR in this class because he’s consistent in everything that he does.
5) Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina
5-10 205
2010: Redshirted after tearing the ACL in his right knee
2011: 239 carries 1253 yards 5.2 13 TD, 45 receptions, 362 yards, 8.0 1 TD
2012: 184 carries 1228 yards 6.7 12 TD, 47 receptions, 490 yards, 10.4 5 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
-Older brother, Yvenson Bernard, played RB at Oregon State in the mid 2000's.
-Torn ACL in 2010, missed 3 games due to a knee injury in 2012.
Analysis:
- Compact frame at 5-10 205, but isn't the burner that is normally associated with his size. Probably a 4.5 player and also doesn't possess great burst. He excels by using good vision, agility, and toughness. Not afraid to lower his shoulder or run between the tackles. Wastes very little movement, the anti Kevin Smith, which helps his efficiency. Good hands and patience getting into his routes. Dangerous in the open field due to build/agility.
FF wise:
-Bernard will be solid in PPR leagues, he caught a ton of passes in college(not normal). He's not an elite athlete, but he can be productive at the next level. Situation and health will be very telling. Only going to command attention due to a poor RB class, keep this in mind when drafting.
6) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
5-9 174
2009: 15 receptions, 151 yards, 10.1 1 TD
2010: 58 receptions, 787 yards, 13.6 8 TD
2011: 101 receptions, 1186 yards, 11.7 8 TD
2012: 114 receptions, 1289 yards, 11.3 12 TD
-Over 1,000 career rushing yards and over 2,500 return yards.
Comparison: More explosive Randall Cobb with less strength. Think Jahvid Best like excitement with the football in his hands.
Notes:
Analysis:
Playmaker is his middle name because everything at West Virginia turned into big plays, including a successful stint at RB. Electric with the ball in his hands, he has a huge arsenal of ways to make defenders miss. One on one in the open field is a nightmare for any defender; I’m including All-Pro players too. Austin is going to be limited at the next level, due to his size. Can he withstand the punishment in the NFL? Austin does use his size to his advantage by getting skinny when he needs to get by defenders. More quick than fast and yet is still a 4.3 player. Good hands and can come down with passes in traffic. Needs to develop more as a route runner, but is good at creating separation due to his acceleration out of breaks. Would like to see him use his hands more against defenders because the physicality may be too much for him to be effective in the NFL.
FF wise:
Austin will go in the first half of rookie drafts because he could be a FF point machine. Situation and usage will be key to how valuable he will become in FF. Could be anywhere from WR1 to WR4, but I don’t see any way Austin flops outside of injury.
7) Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
6-6 251
2010: 27 receptions, 352 yards, 13.0 2 TDs
2011: 63 receptions, 803 yards, 12.7 5 TDs
2012: 50 receptions, 685 yards, 13.7 4 TDs
Comparison: Jason Witten
Notes:
Analysis:
Eifert possesses a huge frame that he utilizes well in catching the football. He is quick for his size and is a matchup nightmare for LBs. Eifert does a good job of boxing out defenders and high pointing the football in traffic. Shows a willingness to go across the middle and take a hit as well. Not a good blocker yet, although he has the size.
FF wise: Eifert could emerge as a mid TE1 in FF. He has the athleticism, size, hands, and toughness to get it done.
8) Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas
6-3 209
2009: 19 receptions, 347 yards,18.3 3 TDs
2010: 32 receptions, 630 yards, 19.7 6 TDs
2011: 34 receptions, 542 yards, 15.9 4 TDs
2012: 73 receptions, 1149 yards,14.8 4 TDs
Comparison: Poor Man’s Julio Jones
Notes:
Analysis:
Great body structure for a WR to do anything at the next level at 6-3, 209 lbs with good strength. Hamilton is a good athlete, explosive vertically. He rarely dances, decisive runner, which helps him create big plays. Has the size and leaping ability to make plays on the ball. Could run the forty in the high 4.3s. Good body control allows Hamilton to adjust to the ball in the air. Solid hands, but will drop some passes. Good route runner and gets solid releases off the line. Cobi Hamilton has been a solid WR in the SEC, but he's taken his game to the next level this season. It's tough for him to excel because the Arkansas offense was struggling, however he performed well.
FF wise: If Hamilton tests well at the combine, I expect him to be a late riser going into the NFL draft. I could see Cobi Hamilton as a WR2 at best in FF. Very underrated at this point in the evaluation process
9) Marquess Wilson WR Washington State
6-4 183
2010: 55 receptions, 1006 yards, 18.3 6 TD
2011: 82 receptions, 1388 yards, 16.9 12 TD
2012: 52 receptions, 813 yards, 15.6 5 TD
Comparison: Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson
Notes:
-Quit the team with 3 games left in 2012, due to problems with HC Mike Leach.
Analysis:
Long frame, but also skinny (6-4 183). Great natural hands catcher, but will drop some easy passes at times. Good ability to high point the football and battle a DB, has a "my ball" mentality. 4.4ish type speed and has burst with the football in his hands. Great sideline awareness to keep his feet in bounds and make lot of plays in tight areas. Will make spectacular receptions very few players can make, reminds me of Brandon Lloyd in that fashion. Good route runner that can set up defenders. Great technique to get off the LOS, uses his hands and pad level well. Wilson needs to add muscle to his long frame if he wants to take his game to the next level. He's more of a technician than physical specimen, but he’s a good athlete. Has a good natural instinct for the WR position.
FF wise:
- Very little to dislike about his game, just unsure of how his off the field decisions will affect his draft status. Wilson can be a WR2 in the NFL and in FF if he improves his attitude.
10) Da’Rick Rodgers WR Tennessee Tech
6-3 205
2010: 11 receptions, 167 yards, 15.1 2 TDs
2011: 67 receptions, 1040 yards, 15.5 9 TDs
2012: 61 receptions, 893 yards, 14.6 10 TD
Comparison: Terrell Owens
Notes:
-Kicked off of University of Tennessee football team and transferred to Tennessee Tech.
Analysis:
Big strong WR that can overpower/bully defenders, uses his frame to box out defenders. Good athlete; Rogers is a high 4.4's to low 4.5's type of WR, but speed isn't his game (he isn't slow by any means, just not a blazer). Difficult to bring down in the open field due to his strength; he will run through and drag defenders for extra yardage. Good body control and is enough aware of the sideline to get his feet down. Good hands, but body catches too much. Led SEC in receiving as a true sophomore.
FF wise: Da’Rick Rodgers physically belongs in the NFL. If he gets his head on straight, he can be an NFL #1 WR and FF factor. How good? Depends on his attitude because he has a WR1/2 ceiling in FF.
11) Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
6-4 200
2010: 16 receptions, 415 yards, 25.9 7 TD
2011: 17 receptions, 314 yards, 18.5 2 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 1083 yards, 14.8 9 TD
Comparison: Julio Jones/Randy Moss at best, flop at worst.
Notes:
-Torn ACL in 2011.
Analysis:
Long frame, but lean (6-4 200); still needs to fill out. Great athlete (in the Julio Jones area of being a special athlete at WR); you can see the burst and explosiveness in his game and an ability to separate from defenders on routes and in the open field. Has a very impressive vertical, good spring in his legs. Very good body control which allows him to win jump balls. Elite 4.3ish speed, on the track team at Tennessee which shows his athletic ability. Average route runner and really needs to improve technique to be successful at the next level. Tries to make the big play too often in the open field, instead of taking what’s given to him. Didn’t elevate his game this season like many expected, he had four 100 yard games in 2012 vs Georgia State/Akron/Troy/Missouri, not impressive.
FF wise:
Justin Hunter has the physical tools to be special in the NFL and a top FF WR. He is ranked low because he hasn’t been same player since his injury and isn’t the technician needed to excel at the next level. Will it come in time or will he never reach his potential? If I had to guess, he’s just a tease.
12) Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State
6-0 182
2009: 8 receptions, 89 yards, 11.1 0 TDs
2010: 55 receptions, 675 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 73 receptions, 986 yards, 13.5 1 TDs
2012: 91 receptions, 1244 yards, 13.7 11 TDs
-Wheaton also has 5 career rushing TDs.
Comparison: Desean Jackson
Notes:
Analysis:
Very explosive player that uses his speed well. Wheaton runs by defenders with ease and gets to top level quickly due to great acceleration. He almost teases DB’s when running routes and just blows by them or breaks back to the ball when they’re bailing out because they fear his speed. Reminds me of how Desean Jackson messes with DB’s on the edge. Solid runner after the catch that is a threat to score on every touch. However, he lacks the strength to break tackles after the catch. Doesn’t explode out of his breaks and need to work on his route running. Let’s too many passes get into his body and doesn’t always attack the football. Looks like some DB’s can overpower him; this could be a large concern at the next level.
FF wise: Wheaton really came into his own during his senior season and now the NFL will take notice. I expect him to be a late riser going into the draft. The problem is not a ton of small, speedy WRs are FF factors. Could be a boom-bust player(Lee Evans, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, etc) from game to game at the next level. Late 1st to early 2nd round rookie pick.
Tier three
13) Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State
6-2 244
2010: 107 carries, 605 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TD; 11 receptions, 97 yards, 8.8 0 TD
2011: 182 carries, 948 yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 TD; 35 receptions, 267 yards, 7.6 0 TD
2012: 382 carries, 1793 yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TD; 32 receptions, 167 yards, 5.2 1TD
Comparison: Looks like LeGarrette Blount physically but possesses much better agility and hands.
Notes:
Analysis:
- Huge frame, 6-2 244, with a big bottom half. Bell runs very hard and defenders don’t have much of a chance with his powerful leg strength. Bell’s combination of size, speed, agility is freak-like. Finishes off runs well and has a good stiff arm, especially on the perimeter. Lacks top end speed, may be a 4.6 type of player. Great agility for a player his size: spin moves, jump cuts, even jumps over defenders(it will remind you of Blount). Patient runner, that uses his blockers well; very good vision and finds holes in the defense to exploit. Good hands and an asset in the passing game.
FF wise:
-Bell has a freakish skill-set, however will an NFL team force feed him the ball to be effective? The NFL has somewhat lost a place for the huge RB and they don’t give them a lot of touches. Yes BJGE/Ridley/Greene have roles, but Bell is bigger and has better agility. The last RB in the same area is Jerome Bettis, not many are utilized. Bell will be a GL RB and have a good role in a RBBC, but his touches will dictate his FF success.
14) Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina
6-0 218
2010: 249 carries, 1197 yards, 4.8 avg. 17 TD; 29 receptions, 412 yards, 6.7 2 TD
2011: 163 carries, 818 yards, 5.0 avg. 10 TD; 19 receptions, 182 yards, 9.6 1 TD
2012: 143 carries, 662 yards, 4.6 avg. 11 TD; 26 receptions, 173 yards, 14.2 0 TD
Comparison: More powerful but less athletic Matt Forte
Notes:
-Tore ACL in 2011
-Tore other ACL + LCL + another ligament in one of the worst injuries seen in recent memory.
-Active in community service with his church and youth groups(show character).
Analysis:
-Great vision, although he may cut back a little too often. High effort player; doesn't go down easy and finishes off his runs. Knowledgeable player that gets the correct yardage on short yardage plays. Great agility for a player his size; breaks lots of tackles due to his agility, effort, and vision. Won't win many speed contests, 4.5-4.55 type of a back. Good hands and used often in the passing game. Uses his blockers well and is patient running the ball. He isn't the sexiest runner, but efficient.
FF wise:
-If you're looking for the next unbelievable athlete at RB, keep looking. However, if you want a hard-working player with great character then Lattimore is your guy. He does many things very well and makes defenders miss, although he simply doesn't possess great speed. Pre-first knee injury Lattimore projected to be a NFL 1st round pick. Pre-second knee injury he projected to be a late first-early second round pick. Now he looks to be a mid-round pick at best. How high should you take him? Depends on how well you believe in modern technology and if you like to gamble.
15) Stepfan Taylor RB Stanford
5-9 215
2009: 56 carries 303 yards 5.4 2 TD, 3 receptions 43 yards 14.3 0 TD
2010: 223 carries 1137 yards 5.1 15 TD, 28 receptions 266 yards 9.5 1 TD
2011: 242 carries 1330 yards 5.5 10 TD, 25 receptions 182 yards 7.3 2 TD
2012: 322 carries 1530 yards 4.8 13 TD, 41 receptions 287 yards 7.0 2 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
Analysis:
Thickly build player with most of his weight in the lower body. Highly productive and consistent player throughout his career at Stanford. Tough inside runner, also fighting for extra yardage. Patient runner that uses his blockers well and good vision to find running lanes. Doesn’t possess good agility, although he has strung together some good moves to create some outstanding plays. Not overly quick and has limited speed. Solid hands, he can be counted on in the passing game.
FF wise:
Taylor has a limited ceiling due to his athleticism, probably RB15 in standard leagues, but he will be a consistent player in the NFL. If a team has an injury, he could fill in to be a solid starter. I don’t expect him to be a long term answer and is likely to be a backup.
16) Robert Woods WR USC
6-1 190
2010: 65 receptions, 792 yards, 12.2 6 TD
2011: 111 receptions, 1,292, yards, 11.6 15 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 813 yards, 11.1 11 TD
Comparison: Lance Moore
Notes:
-Got demoted to the #2 option when Marqise Lee emerged late in 2011.
Analysis:
Woods has a small frame, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends measuring under 6'0” at the NFL Combine. Great hands catcher, rarely drops passes. Very quick player, possesses elite quickness. Only average speed when compared to his quickness (perhaps a 4.48/40 type of a player). Not a great YAC player. Sometimes he makes defenders miss and sometimes he goes down very easily versus a college DB. Not a very physical player, can get manhandled. Ran many short routes and gimmick type plays at USC.
FF wise:
-Woods has some flaws to his game and he might be limited to slot duty in the NFL. However, some WRs have excelled at the next level in the slot. If he can gain strength he might be able to play outside. In a perfect scenario, WR2 in FF; more than likely a WR3 at best. I would probably look elsewhere in your rookie drafts.
17) Montee Ball RB Wisconsin
5-11 212
2009: 98 carries, 391 yards, 4.0 YPC, 4 TDs; 9 receptions 92 yards, 10.2 0 TD
2010: 163 carries, 996 yards, 6.1 YPC, 18 TDs; 16 receptions, 128 yards, 8.0 0 TD
2011: 307 carries, 1,923 yards, 6.3 YPC, 33 TD; 24 receptions, 306 yards, 12.8 6 TDs
2012: 332 carries, 1730 yards, 5.2 YPC, 21 TDs; 9 receptions, 65 yards, 7.2 0 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Analysis:
- Not a great athlete, but gets the most out of his abilities. Has only one gear, but gets to that speed quickly. Very smooth runner, could classify him as a glider, 4.55 speed. Good agility, jump cuts very well; occasional spin move, but Ball doesn't lose as much speed as the average runner using agility (he can't afford to). Patient runner that uses his blockers very well. Physical runner that will finish his runs to get extra yardage, especially near the goalline or near a 1st down marker; beware of his stiff arm. Solid hands and route runner.
FF wise:
-Montee Ball has a solid overall game, although the main issue with Ball is that he isn't truly special at any one thing. To be a difference maker at the next level you need either an ideal situation or have great athletic ability at the next level and Ball is already an average athlete for an NFL RB. Wait until the second round to draft Ball in your rookie drafts.
18) Stedman Bailey WR West Virginia
5-10 188
2010: 24 receptions, 317 yards, 13.2 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 1279 yards, 17.8 12 TDs
2012: 114 receptions, 1622 yards, 14.2 25 TDs
Comparison: Golden Tate/Steve Smith with less strength
Notes:
Analysis:
Bailey is a sudden athlete with an explosive first step, still a notch below his teammate Tavon Austin. This allows Bailey to set up defenders with his sneaky route running. He uses his burst well to gain separation and is a natural hands catcher. Good body control allows Bailey to come down with many contested passes despite his size, kind of like Steve Smith and Golden Tate. However, unlike those two WRs, Bailey lacks upper body strength; he needs to improve in this area. Solid after the catch, he will make defenders miss to make plays. More of a limited athlete in comparison to the rest of his WR class.
FF wise:
Bailey could be a productive FF WR if matched up with a good QB. If not, I wouldn’t bother because I worry about him succeeding despite not his measurable.
19) Terrance Williams WR Baylor
6-2 205
2009: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 20.3 0 TDs
2010: 43 receptions, 484 yards, 11.3 4 TDs
2011: 59 receptions, 957 yards, 16.2 11 TDs
2012: 97 receptions, 1832 yards, 18.9 12 TDs
Comparison: Roy Williams
Notes:
Analysis:
The thing that jumps off the screen with Williams is "average" - he doesn't seem like a special player at the next level. 4.5 speed and average athlete (he's at least a tier behind Cobi Hamilton/Da'Rick Rodgers athletically). Good size and uses his frame to his advantage, catching over/around/boxing out defenders. Doesn't make many defenders miss and goes down easy. Solid hands and comes up with some big plays, but also misses some as well. Terrance Williams lost fellow WR Kendall Wright and his QB RGIII to the NFL. He's since produced very well in their absence.
FF wise: I don’t see Williams being productive at the next level, only chance if he’s in a great situation with one of the best QB’s in the NFL and he develops more skills. Low ceiling player.
20) Eugene “Geno” Smith QB West Virginia
6-3 215
2009: 32 of 49 65.3%, 309 yards, 6.31 YPA, 1 TD 1 INT
2010: 241 of 372 64.8%, 2763 yards, 7.43 YPA, 24 TD 7 INT
2011: 346 of 526 65.8%, 4385 yards, 8.34 YPA, 31 TD 7 INT
2012: 369 of 518 71.2%, 4205 yards, 8.12 YPA, 42 TD 6 INT
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
Notes:
Analysis:
Good athlete, but don't let his race fool you; most people associate African American QBs with being running QB. Geno Smith is not a runner (he only runs when he absolutely has to and he has enough athleticism to get it done). Solid frame at 6-3 214, but he's not a huge QB like Cam Newton and is smaller than Andrew Luck. Good arm strength, but he doesn't have a cannon. Good pocket presence, Smith had some issues with pressure(as do most QBs) but I feel it won’t hinder him in the NFL. Amazing at reading the defense and throwing WRs open; Smith can anticipate when WRs will get open and throws the ball early, hence his low INT numbers. Very good accuracy; his completion percentage is off the charts. Smith is a humble guy, but a perfectionist; he wasn't satisfied after his Baylor performance. Highly recruited - Smith was an Elite 11 attendee and his cousin is former "U" of Miami star Melvin Bratton. I’m a huge fan of quarterbacks that have lots of experience and continue to improve statistically throughout their college careers - Geno Smith has both of those boxes checked
FF wise: Smith has the highest floor from this QB class. At best, he could become a low end QB1 after a handful of seasons.
21) Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt
5-11 195
2009: 107 carries 478 yards 4.5 3 TD, 7 receptions, 72 yards, 10.3 0 TD
2010: 66 carries 331 yards 5.0 3 TD, 9 receptions, 32 yards, 3.6 0 TD
2011: 201 carries 1193 yards 5.9 14 TD, 20 receptions, 106 yards, 5.3 0 TD
2012: 207 carries 1141 yards 5.5 10 TD, 10 receptions 205 yards 20.5 0 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Smaller Mark Ingram
Notes:
Analysis:
One of my favorite RBs to evaluate because he’s a big time competitor that produces at a low end SEC school. Stacy lacks top end speed and isn’t a great athlete. However, he makes good decisions, shows good agility, and toughness as a RB.
FF wise:
Stacy is a limited athlete, so don’t expect big things. However, if I had guess one RB you could draft in the second round of rookie drafts that could produce big…it’s Zac Stacy.
22) Zach Ertz TE Stanford
6-6 252
2010: 16 receptions, 190 yards, 11.9 5 TDs
2011: 27 receptions, 346 yards, 12.8 4 TDs
2012: 69 receptions, 898 yards, 13.0 6 TDs
Comparison: Heath Miller/Owen Daniels
Notes:
Analysis:
Ertz is a tier behind Tyler Eifert in athletic ability. However, Ertz is a much better blocker. This will likely keep him on the field more and possibly more opportunities in the NFL. Ertz is still athletic enough to be a solid TE and has a large frame. He isn’t afraid to go across the middle and high point the football. Will work the seam and can even line up in the slot.
FF wise: Ertz could be a low end TE1 in FF, I just don’t see a high ceiling to be a top tier player.
Other QBs of note: Matt Barkley USC, Ryan Nassib Syracuse, Mike Glennon NC State, Tyler Wilson Arkansas, Tyler Bray Tennessee, EJ Manuel Florida State
Other RBs of note: Joseph Randle Oklahoma State, Andre Ellington Clemson, Jonathan Franklin UCLA, Mike Gillislee Florida, Christine Michael Texas A&M, Jawan Jamison Rutgers, Kenjon Barner Oregon, Ray Graham Pittsburgh, Robbie Rouse Fresno State, Dennis Johnson Arkansas(not invited to combine)
Other WRs of note: Quinton Patton Louisiana Tech, Kenny Stills Oklahoma, Aaron Dobson Marshall, Ryan Swope Texas A&M, Conner Vernon Duke, Aaron Mellette Elon, Josh Boyce TCU, Marquise Goodwin Texas, Tavarres King Georgia, Chris Harper Kansas State
Other TEs of note: Travis Kelce Cincinnati, Jordan Reed Florida, Vance McDonald Rice
Hope this is helpful for when you’re watching the combine, thanks for reading.
My rankings are based on standard PPR leagues and are for FF production because upside is very important.
Tier One
1) Keenan Allen WR Cal
6-3 210
2010: 46 receptions, 490 yards, 10.7 5 TD
2011: 98 receptions, 1343 yards, 13.7 6 TD
2012: 61 receptions, 737 yards, 12.1 6 TD
-Also has one passing, two rushing, and one return TD at Cal.
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald
Notes:
-Turned down a scholarship at Alabama to play FS to play WR at Cal with his half-brother QB Zach Maynard.
-Foot surgery in spring of 2012, MCL tear which ended his 2012 campaign.
Analysis:
- Very athletic for a guy his size. He can spin, juke, jump over defenders and makes plays in the open field. Good burst and speed. Don't think of him as a burner, but we're not talking about Alshon Jeffery here. Probably a 4.45 type of player on the field. Good route runner that uses his frame to box out defenders and is knowledgeable enough to settle into zones. Good hands, but body catches more than I would like. High points the football and comes up with some very clutch receptions when Cal needed him most.
FF wise:
-Keenan Allen is going to be a #1 WR in the NFL. He has the size to get those red zone TDs, the agility to break a big play, and the consistency to get receptions/yards week in and week out. He will be the 1.1 in most rookie drafts.
2) Eddie Lacy RB Alabama
5-10 220
2010: 56 carries 406 yards 7.3 6 TD, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 9.0 0 TD
2011: 95 carries 674 yards 7.1 7 TD, 11 receptions, 131 yards, 11.9 0 TD
2012: 184 carries 1182 yards 6.4 16 TD, 20 receptions, 172 yards, 8.6 1 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Frank Gore
Notes:
-Bothered by turf toe injury for 2 years.
Analysis:
- Big RB, 5-10 220(I’d guess he goes 230), with a bowling ball type of frame (think of a taller MJD or Doug Martin type of frame), lots of muscle on the bottom half. He bounces off defenders due to his frame. Strong runner that finishes off his runs very well and carries defenders for more yardage. Great feet for his size, which allows him to make good cuts to find a hole. Doesn’t possess great agility, but a very effective spin move and a solid jump cut. Tough to bring down in the open field, due to more decisiveness than making defenders miss. Very good vision and hits the hole hard, breaks through arm tackles with ease. Tough player, he has taken some shots but returns to action. While being a power runner, he’s an effective edge runner as well. Good hands, needs to have better technique in pass protection, although he has the size and willingness to be very effective in this area. Has had a few fumbles, mostly due to effort at the end of runs.
FF wise:
-Lacy has everything needed to be an every down RB at the next level and be an effective FF player. Situation and usage will be very telling. He won’t be a RB1(top 12) without a ton of touches, just doesn’t have the ability. But he has every bit the opportunity to be a RB2.
3) Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
6-3 205
2010(Hutchinson CC): 52 receptions, 908 yards, 17.5 9 TDs
-Patterson also added over 600 return yards with 3 TDs.
2011(Hutchinson CC): 61 receptions, 924 yards, 15.1 15 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 500 return yards with 3 TDs and almost 400 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
2012: 46 receptions, 778 yards, 16.9 5 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 800 return yards and 300 rushing yards in 2012.
Comparison: Taller Percy Harvin
Notes: Didn’t play football as a freshman or sophomore in high school. After a good final two seasons in high school, Patterson didn’t qualify academically and was forced to go to a Junior College. Transferring from a JUCO makes Patterson an unknown even though he had a good 2012 season in Tennessee.
Analysis:
I initially didn’t like Patterson, but I couldn’t ignore his potential. What makes Patterson special? He’s the most elusive 6’3 or taller player I’ve ever seen. It’s hard to believe how many defenders he made miss in the SEC this past season at his size. Patterson is athletic: 39 inch vertical and 10.33 100 meter dash. Very explosive and gets to top speed quickly. Not a true burner, probably a 4.45 type player, but it’s deceptive. High points the football very well and is a threat to score on every play. Playmaker is an understatement. He’s also a strong player that can overmatch DBs. Doesn’t explode out of his breaks very well and body catches way too much. The only time he extends his hands out to catch the football is when it’s outside of his framework. Needs to work on selling his routes more, at times he tips off his breaks which doesn’t help with separation. Patterson is raw and has many things to work on.
FF wise:
Patterson has the highest ceiling of any WR in this class and therefore is someone to obtain in your FF drafts. He also may not develop and be a player that constantly shows flashes, which can be frustrating. If you’re a gambler, Patterson is your guy.
Tier 2
4) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
6-1 200
2010: 51 receptions, 626 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 978 yards, 13.6 5 TDs
2012: 82 receptions, 1405 yards, 17.1 18 TDs
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Wayne(later in his career)
Notes:
Analysis:
The best route runner in the class hands down. Hopkins runs great routes by setting up defenders, changes speeds, explodes in/out of breaks, uses hands well, and consistently keeps routes within his frame. Hopkins does a good job of settling down in zones and doesn’t fade into coverage. Makes himself a big target by squaring his body and coming back to the QB. Attacks the football in the air and is very good at high pointing the football. Hopkins has great body control which helps in his route running and catching the football in traffic. Great hands catcher, didn’t see one standing body catch, and is great at snagging the ball out of the air(my ball mentality). Great sideline awareness, he gets his feet down and makes some wow plays. Not a burner, but doesn’t waste his speed due to his route running. Good acceleration and gets vertical quickly after the catch. Can make defenders miss, but it isn’t his forte. Should’ve made more plays this season, had a few drops. Sometimes he doesn’t win the battle with physical DBs.
FF wise:
Hopkins isn’t a flashy player, so he may drop in rookie drafts. But don’t be mistaken, you want him on your team. He could turn out to be that boring player that gets 1,000 yards every season and people keep waiting for another WR to replace him. Highest floor of any WR in this class because he’s consistent in everything that he does.
5) Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina
5-10 205
2010: Redshirted after tearing the ACL in his right knee
2011: 239 carries 1253 yards 5.2 13 TD, 45 receptions, 362 yards, 8.0 1 TD
2012: 184 carries 1228 yards 6.7 12 TD, 47 receptions, 490 yards, 10.4 5 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
-Older brother, Yvenson Bernard, played RB at Oregon State in the mid 2000's.
-Torn ACL in 2010, missed 3 games due to a knee injury in 2012.
Analysis:
- Compact frame at 5-10 205, but isn't the burner that is normally associated with his size. Probably a 4.5 player and also doesn't possess great burst. He excels by using good vision, agility, and toughness. Not afraid to lower his shoulder or run between the tackles. Wastes very little movement, the anti Kevin Smith, which helps his efficiency. Good hands and patience getting into his routes. Dangerous in the open field due to build/agility.
FF wise:
-Bernard will be solid in PPR leagues, he caught a ton of passes in college(not normal). He's not an elite athlete, but he can be productive at the next level. Situation and health will be very telling. Only going to command attention due to a poor RB class, keep this in mind when drafting.
6) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
5-9 174
2009: 15 receptions, 151 yards, 10.1 1 TD
2010: 58 receptions, 787 yards, 13.6 8 TD
2011: 101 receptions, 1186 yards, 11.7 8 TD
2012: 114 receptions, 1289 yards, 11.3 12 TD
-Over 1,000 career rushing yards and over 2,500 return yards.
Comparison: More explosive Randall Cobb with less strength. Think Jahvid Best like excitement with the football in his hands.
Notes:
Analysis:
Playmaker is his middle name because everything at West Virginia turned into big plays, including a successful stint at RB. Electric with the ball in his hands, he has a huge arsenal of ways to make defenders miss. One on one in the open field is a nightmare for any defender; I’m including All-Pro players too. Austin is going to be limited at the next level, due to his size. Can he withstand the punishment in the NFL? Austin does use his size to his advantage by getting skinny when he needs to get by defenders. More quick than fast and yet is still a 4.3 player. Good hands and can come down with passes in traffic. Needs to develop more as a route runner, but is good at creating separation due to his acceleration out of breaks. Would like to see him use his hands more against defenders because the physicality may be too much for him to be effective in the NFL.
FF wise:
Austin will go in the first half of rookie drafts because he could be a FF point machine. Situation and usage will be key to how valuable he will become in FF. Could be anywhere from WR1 to WR4, but I don’t see any way Austin flops outside of injury.
7) Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
6-6 251
2010: 27 receptions, 352 yards, 13.0 2 TDs
2011: 63 receptions, 803 yards, 12.7 5 TDs
2012: 50 receptions, 685 yards, 13.7 4 TDs
Comparison: Jason Witten
Notes:
Analysis:
Eifert possesses a huge frame that he utilizes well in catching the football. He is quick for his size and is a matchup nightmare for LBs. Eifert does a good job of boxing out defenders and high pointing the football in traffic. Shows a willingness to go across the middle and take a hit as well. Not a good blocker yet, although he has the size.
FF wise: Eifert could emerge as a mid TE1 in FF. He has the athleticism, size, hands, and toughness to get it done.
8) Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas
6-3 209
2009: 19 receptions, 347 yards,18.3 3 TDs
2010: 32 receptions, 630 yards, 19.7 6 TDs
2011: 34 receptions, 542 yards, 15.9 4 TDs
2012: 73 receptions, 1149 yards,14.8 4 TDs
Comparison: Poor Man’s Julio Jones
Notes:
Analysis:
Great body structure for a WR to do anything at the next level at 6-3, 209 lbs with good strength. Hamilton is a good athlete, explosive vertically. He rarely dances, decisive runner, which helps him create big plays. Has the size and leaping ability to make plays on the ball. Could run the forty in the high 4.3s. Good body control allows Hamilton to adjust to the ball in the air. Solid hands, but will drop some passes. Good route runner and gets solid releases off the line. Cobi Hamilton has been a solid WR in the SEC, but he's taken his game to the next level this season. It's tough for him to excel because the Arkansas offense was struggling, however he performed well.
FF wise: If Hamilton tests well at the combine, I expect him to be a late riser going into the NFL draft. I could see Cobi Hamilton as a WR2 at best in FF. Very underrated at this point in the evaluation process
9) Marquess Wilson WR Washington State
6-4 183
2010: 55 receptions, 1006 yards, 18.3 6 TD
2011: 82 receptions, 1388 yards, 16.9 12 TD
2012: 52 receptions, 813 yards, 15.6 5 TD
Comparison: Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson
Notes:
-Quit the team with 3 games left in 2012, due to problems with HC Mike Leach.
Analysis:
Long frame, but also skinny (6-4 183). Great natural hands catcher, but will drop some easy passes at times. Good ability to high point the football and battle a DB, has a "my ball" mentality. 4.4ish type speed and has burst with the football in his hands. Great sideline awareness to keep his feet in bounds and make lot of plays in tight areas. Will make spectacular receptions very few players can make, reminds me of Brandon Lloyd in that fashion. Good route runner that can set up defenders. Great technique to get off the LOS, uses his hands and pad level well. Wilson needs to add muscle to his long frame if he wants to take his game to the next level. He's more of a technician than physical specimen, but he’s a good athlete. Has a good natural instinct for the WR position.
FF wise:
- Very little to dislike about his game, just unsure of how his off the field decisions will affect his draft status. Wilson can be a WR2 in the NFL and in FF if he improves his attitude.
10) Da’Rick Rodgers WR Tennessee Tech
6-3 205
2010: 11 receptions, 167 yards, 15.1 2 TDs
2011: 67 receptions, 1040 yards, 15.5 9 TDs
2012: 61 receptions, 893 yards, 14.6 10 TD
Comparison: Terrell Owens
Notes:
-Kicked off of University of Tennessee football team and transferred to Tennessee Tech.
Analysis:
Big strong WR that can overpower/bully defenders, uses his frame to box out defenders. Good athlete; Rogers is a high 4.4's to low 4.5's type of WR, but speed isn't his game (he isn't slow by any means, just not a blazer). Difficult to bring down in the open field due to his strength; he will run through and drag defenders for extra yardage. Good body control and is enough aware of the sideline to get his feet down. Good hands, but body catches too much. Led SEC in receiving as a true sophomore.
FF wise: Da’Rick Rodgers physically belongs in the NFL. If he gets his head on straight, he can be an NFL #1 WR and FF factor. How good? Depends on his attitude because he has a WR1/2 ceiling in FF.
11) Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
6-4 200
2010: 16 receptions, 415 yards, 25.9 7 TD
2011: 17 receptions, 314 yards, 18.5 2 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 1083 yards, 14.8 9 TD
Comparison: Julio Jones/Randy Moss at best, flop at worst.
Notes:
-Torn ACL in 2011.
Analysis:
Long frame, but lean (6-4 200); still needs to fill out. Great athlete (in the Julio Jones area of being a special athlete at WR); you can see the burst and explosiveness in his game and an ability to separate from defenders on routes and in the open field. Has a very impressive vertical, good spring in his legs. Very good body control which allows him to win jump balls. Elite 4.3ish speed, on the track team at Tennessee which shows his athletic ability. Average route runner and really needs to improve technique to be successful at the next level. Tries to make the big play too often in the open field, instead of taking what’s given to him. Didn’t elevate his game this season like many expected, he had four 100 yard games in 2012 vs Georgia State/Akron/Troy/Missouri, not impressive.
FF wise:
Justin Hunter has the physical tools to be special in the NFL and a top FF WR. He is ranked low because he hasn’t been same player since his injury and isn’t the technician needed to excel at the next level. Will it come in time or will he never reach his potential? If I had to guess, he’s just a tease.
12) Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State
6-0 182
2009: 8 receptions, 89 yards, 11.1 0 TDs
2010: 55 receptions, 675 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 73 receptions, 986 yards, 13.5 1 TDs
2012: 91 receptions, 1244 yards, 13.7 11 TDs
-Wheaton also has 5 career rushing TDs.
Comparison: Desean Jackson
Notes:
Analysis:
Very explosive player that uses his speed well. Wheaton runs by defenders with ease and gets to top level quickly due to great acceleration. He almost teases DB’s when running routes and just blows by them or breaks back to the ball when they’re bailing out because they fear his speed. Reminds me of how Desean Jackson messes with DB’s on the edge. Solid runner after the catch that is a threat to score on every touch. However, he lacks the strength to break tackles after the catch. Doesn’t explode out of his breaks and need to work on his route running. Let’s too many passes get into his body and doesn’t always attack the football. Looks like some DB’s can overpower him; this could be a large concern at the next level.
FF wise: Wheaton really came into his own during his senior season and now the NFL will take notice. I expect him to be a late riser going into the draft. The problem is not a ton of small, speedy WRs are FF factors. Could be a boom-bust player(Lee Evans, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, etc) from game to game at the next level. Late 1st to early 2nd round rookie pick.
Tier three
13) Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State
6-2 244
2010: 107 carries, 605 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TD; 11 receptions, 97 yards, 8.8 0 TD
2011: 182 carries, 948 yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 TD; 35 receptions, 267 yards, 7.6 0 TD
2012: 382 carries, 1793 yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TD; 32 receptions, 167 yards, 5.2 1TD
Comparison: Looks like LeGarrette Blount physically but possesses much better agility and hands.
Notes:
Analysis:
- Huge frame, 6-2 244, with a big bottom half. Bell runs very hard and defenders don’t have much of a chance with his powerful leg strength. Bell’s combination of size, speed, agility is freak-like. Finishes off runs well and has a good stiff arm, especially on the perimeter. Lacks top end speed, may be a 4.6 type of player. Great agility for a player his size: spin moves, jump cuts, even jumps over defenders(it will remind you of Blount). Patient runner, that uses his blockers well; very good vision and finds holes in the defense to exploit. Good hands and an asset in the passing game.
FF wise:
-Bell has a freakish skill-set, however will an NFL team force feed him the ball to be effective? The NFL has somewhat lost a place for the huge RB and they don’t give them a lot of touches. Yes BJGE/Ridley/Greene have roles, but Bell is bigger and has better agility. The last RB in the same area is Jerome Bettis, not many are utilized. Bell will be a GL RB and have a good role in a RBBC, but his touches will dictate his FF success.
14) Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina
6-0 218
2010: 249 carries, 1197 yards, 4.8 avg. 17 TD; 29 receptions, 412 yards, 6.7 2 TD
2011: 163 carries, 818 yards, 5.0 avg. 10 TD; 19 receptions, 182 yards, 9.6 1 TD
2012: 143 carries, 662 yards, 4.6 avg. 11 TD; 26 receptions, 173 yards, 14.2 0 TD
Comparison: More powerful but less athletic Matt Forte
Notes:
-Tore ACL in 2011
-Tore other ACL + LCL + another ligament in one of the worst injuries seen in recent memory.
-Active in community service with his church and youth groups(show character).
Analysis:
-Great vision, although he may cut back a little too often. High effort player; doesn't go down easy and finishes off his runs. Knowledgeable player that gets the correct yardage on short yardage plays. Great agility for a player his size; breaks lots of tackles due to his agility, effort, and vision. Won't win many speed contests, 4.5-4.55 type of a back. Good hands and used often in the passing game. Uses his blockers well and is patient running the ball. He isn't the sexiest runner, but efficient.
FF wise:
-If you're looking for the next unbelievable athlete at RB, keep looking. However, if you want a hard-working player with great character then Lattimore is your guy. He does many things very well and makes defenders miss, although he simply doesn't possess great speed. Pre-first knee injury Lattimore projected to be a NFL 1st round pick. Pre-second knee injury he projected to be a late first-early second round pick. Now he looks to be a mid-round pick at best. How high should you take him? Depends on how well you believe in modern technology and if you like to gamble.
15) Stepfan Taylor RB Stanford
5-9 215
2009: 56 carries 303 yards 5.4 2 TD, 3 receptions 43 yards 14.3 0 TD
2010: 223 carries 1137 yards 5.1 15 TD, 28 receptions 266 yards 9.5 1 TD
2011: 242 carries 1330 yards 5.5 10 TD, 25 receptions 182 yards 7.3 2 TD
2012: 322 carries 1530 yards 4.8 13 TD, 41 receptions 287 yards 7.0 2 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
Analysis:
Thickly build player with most of his weight in the lower body. Highly productive and consistent player throughout his career at Stanford. Tough inside runner, also fighting for extra yardage. Patient runner that uses his blockers well and good vision to find running lanes. Doesn’t possess good agility, although he has strung together some good moves to create some outstanding plays. Not overly quick and has limited speed. Solid hands, he can be counted on in the passing game.
FF wise:
Taylor has a limited ceiling due to his athleticism, probably RB15 in standard leagues, but he will be a consistent player in the NFL. If a team has an injury, he could fill in to be a solid starter. I don’t expect him to be a long term answer and is likely to be a backup.
16) Robert Woods WR USC
6-1 190
2010: 65 receptions, 792 yards, 12.2 6 TD
2011: 111 receptions, 1,292, yards, 11.6 15 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 813 yards, 11.1 11 TD
Comparison: Lance Moore
Notes:
-Got demoted to the #2 option when Marqise Lee emerged late in 2011.
Analysis:
Woods has a small frame, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends measuring under 6'0” at the NFL Combine. Great hands catcher, rarely drops passes. Very quick player, possesses elite quickness. Only average speed when compared to his quickness (perhaps a 4.48/40 type of a player). Not a great YAC player. Sometimes he makes defenders miss and sometimes he goes down very easily versus a college DB. Not a very physical player, can get manhandled. Ran many short routes and gimmick type plays at USC.
FF wise:
-Woods has some flaws to his game and he might be limited to slot duty in the NFL. However, some WRs have excelled at the next level in the slot. If he can gain strength he might be able to play outside. In a perfect scenario, WR2 in FF; more than likely a WR3 at best. I would probably look elsewhere in your rookie drafts.
17) Montee Ball RB Wisconsin
5-11 212
2009: 98 carries, 391 yards, 4.0 YPC, 4 TDs; 9 receptions 92 yards, 10.2 0 TD
2010: 163 carries, 996 yards, 6.1 YPC, 18 TDs; 16 receptions, 128 yards, 8.0 0 TD
2011: 307 carries, 1,923 yards, 6.3 YPC, 33 TD; 24 receptions, 306 yards, 12.8 6 TDs
2012: 332 carries, 1730 yards, 5.2 YPC, 21 TDs; 9 receptions, 65 yards, 7.2 0 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Analysis:
- Not a great athlete, but gets the most out of his abilities. Has only one gear, but gets to that speed quickly. Very smooth runner, could classify him as a glider, 4.55 speed. Good agility, jump cuts very well; occasional spin move, but Ball doesn't lose as much speed as the average runner using agility (he can't afford to). Patient runner that uses his blockers very well. Physical runner that will finish his runs to get extra yardage, especially near the goalline or near a 1st down marker; beware of his stiff arm. Solid hands and route runner.
FF wise:
-Montee Ball has a solid overall game, although the main issue with Ball is that he isn't truly special at any one thing. To be a difference maker at the next level you need either an ideal situation or have great athletic ability at the next level and Ball is already an average athlete for an NFL RB. Wait until the second round to draft Ball in your rookie drafts.
18) Stedman Bailey WR West Virginia
5-10 188
2010: 24 receptions, 317 yards, 13.2 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 1279 yards, 17.8 12 TDs
2012: 114 receptions, 1622 yards, 14.2 25 TDs
Comparison: Golden Tate/Steve Smith with less strength
Notes:
Analysis:
Bailey is a sudden athlete with an explosive first step, still a notch below his teammate Tavon Austin. This allows Bailey to set up defenders with his sneaky route running. He uses his burst well to gain separation and is a natural hands catcher. Good body control allows Bailey to come down with many contested passes despite his size, kind of like Steve Smith and Golden Tate. However, unlike those two WRs, Bailey lacks upper body strength; he needs to improve in this area. Solid after the catch, he will make defenders miss to make plays. More of a limited athlete in comparison to the rest of his WR class.
FF wise:
Bailey could be a productive FF WR if matched up with a good QB. If not, I wouldn’t bother because I worry about him succeeding despite not his measurable.
19) Terrance Williams WR Baylor
6-2 205
2009: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 20.3 0 TDs
2010: 43 receptions, 484 yards, 11.3 4 TDs
2011: 59 receptions, 957 yards, 16.2 11 TDs
2012: 97 receptions, 1832 yards, 18.9 12 TDs
Comparison: Roy Williams
Notes:
Analysis:
The thing that jumps off the screen with Williams is "average" - he doesn't seem like a special player at the next level. 4.5 speed and average athlete (he's at least a tier behind Cobi Hamilton/Da'Rick Rodgers athletically). Good size and uses his frame to his advantage, catching over/around/boxing out defenders. Doesn't make many defenders miss and goes down easy. Solid hands and comes up with some big plays, but also misses some as well. Terrance Williams lost fellow WR Kendall Wright and his QB RGIII to the NFL. He's since produced very well in their absence.
FF wise: I don’t see Williams being productive at the next level, only chance if he’s in a great situation with one of the best QB’s in the NFL and he develops more skills. Low ceiling player.
20) Eugene “Geno” Smith QB West Virginia
6-3 215
2009: 32 of 49 65.3%, 309 yards, 6.31 YPA, 1 TD 1 INT
2010: 241 of 372 64.8%, 2763 yards, 7.43 YPA, 24 TD 7 INT
2011: 346 of 526 65.8%, 4385 yards, 8.34 YPA, 31 TD 7 INT
2012: 369 of 518 71.2%, 4205 yards, 8.12 YPA, 42 TD 6 INT
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
Notes:
Analysis:
Good athlete, but don't let his race fool you; most people associate African American QBs with being running QB. Geno Smith is not a runner (he only runs when he absolutely has to and he has enough athleticism to get it done). Solid frame at 6-3 214, but he's not a huge QB like Cam Newton and is smaller than Andrew Luck. Good arm strength, but he doesn't have a cannon. Good pocket presence, Smith had some issues with pressure(as do most QBs) but I feel it won’t hinder him in the NFL. Amazing at reading the defense and throwing WRs open; Smith can anticipate when WRs will get open and throws the ball early, hence his low INT numbers. Very good accuracy; his completion percentage is off the charts. Smith is a humble guy, but a perfectionist; he wasn't satisfied after his Baylor performance. Highly recruited - Smith was an Elite 11 attendee and his cousin is former "U" of Miami star Melvin Bratton. I’m a huge fan of quarterbacks that have lots of experience and continue to improve statistically throughout their college careers - Geno Smith has both of those boxes checked
FF wise: Smith has the highest floor from this QB class. At best, he could become a low end QB1 after a handful of seasons.
21) Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt
5-11 195
2009: 107 carries 478 yards 4.5 3 TD, 7 receptions, 72 yards, 10.3 0 TD
2010: 66 carries 331 yards 5.0 3 TD, 9 receptions, 32 yards, 3.6 0 TD
2011: 201 carries 1193 yards 5.9 14 TD, 20 receptions, 106 yards, 5.3 0 TD
2012: 207 carries 1141 yards 5.5 10 TD, 10 receptions 205 yards 20.5 0 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Smaller Mark Ingram
Notes:
Analysis:
One of my favorite RBs to evaluate because he’s a big time competitor that produces at a low end SEC school. Stacy lacks top end speed and isn’t a great athlete. However, he makes good decisions, shows good agility, and toughness as a RB.
FF wise:
Stacy is a limited athlete, so don’t expect big things. However, if I had guess one RB you could draft in the second round of rookie drafts that could produce big…it’s Zac Stacy.
22) Zach Ertz TE Stanford
6-6 252
2010: 16 receptions, 190 yards, 11.9 5 TDs
2011: 27 receptions, 346 yards, 12.8 4 TDs
2012: 69 receptions, 898 yards, 13.0 6 TDs
Comparison: Heath Miller/Owen Daniels
Notes:
Analysis:
Ertz is a tier behind Tyler Eifert in athletic ability. However, Ertz is a much better blocker. This will likely keep him on the field more and possibly more opportunities in the NFL. Ertz is still athletic enough to be a solid TE and has a large frame. He isn’t afraid to go across the middle and high point the football. Will work the seam and can even line up in the slot.
FF wise: Ertz could be a low end TE1 in FF, I just don’t see a high ceiling to be a top tier player.
Other QBs of note: Matt Barkley USC, Ryan Nassib Syracuse, Mike Glennon NC State, Tyler Wilson Arkansas, Tyler Bray Tennessee, EJ Manuel Florida State
Other RBs of note: Joseph Randle Oklahoma State, Andre Ellington Clemson, Jonathan Franklin UCLA, Mike Gillislee Florida, Christine Michael Texas A&M, Jawan Jamison Rutgers, Kenjon Barner Oregon, Ray Graham Pittsburgh, Robbie Rouse Fresno State, Dennis Johnson Arkansas(not invited to combine)
Other WRs of note: Quinton Patton Louisiana Tech, Kenny Stills Oklahoma, Aaron Dobson Marshall, Ryan Swope Texas A&M, Conner Vernon Duke, Aaron Mellette Elon, Josh Boyce TCU, Marquise Goodwin Texas, Tavarres King Georgia, Chris Harper Kansas State
Other TEs of note: Travis Kelce Cincinnati, Jordan Reed Florida, Vance McDonald Rice
Hope this is helpful for when you’re watching the combine, thanks for reading.
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks for the rankings. Solid list.
