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Dynasty Under-appreciated/under-valued players (1 Viewer)

Tornacl

Footballguy
As the fantasy football season winds down in the next couple of weeks, most dynasty leaguers will try to do the same thing: shed older players for young prospects and/or draft picks. Let's face it, everyone does it. We all want to have the perfect dynasty team of studs under the age of 25. So between the fantasy playoffs and next year's fantasy rookie drafts, most owners will obsess over youth. But as most successful dynasty owners know, a good mix of youth and veterans is often a better recipe for success, as many rookies don't pan out or take a long time to develop.

And there are some players that, for whatever reason, the fantasy football community never seems to value their production. I'm not talking about the typical "buy low" guys that you believe will produce much more in the future. I mean more of the guys that no one ever seems to value them as their production would merit. I'm also referring to guys that because of their age, their owners will often try to get rid of them when before they have no value.

Here are some guys that always seem to be under-appreciated to me. None of them are going to win your league for you by themselves, but when you compare their level of production for the price that it would take to acquire them, they provide nice depth or situational starts and allow you to use more resources to acquire studs at other positions.

QB:

Eli Manning: The Giants have had a down year, Eli included, but Eli has never been a guy that people would give a lot to acquire, even when he was putting up QB1 numbers. Now, because of him having a down year, you could probably get him for very little. Worst case, he'll probably remain as a high-end QB2, or a good QB to play matchups with as part of a rotation.

Andy Dalton: He seems to be the new Eli. Last year, he finished as a low-end QB1 in only his second year, yet I could hardly give him away in the off-season. This year, he's anywhere from a mid-range QB1 to a low-end QB1, depending on scoring. He's still only 26. Yes, he throws a lot of picks, and his arm isn't the strongest in the league. But the Bengals are winning with him, he has a load of young offensive talent on the team, and I don't see hm going away any time soon.

Alex Smith: I think that Andy Reid got exactly what he wanted in bringing in Smith, and he's responded with a good season, looking like he'll finish right around the QB1-QB2 border area - not bad for a guy that was on many waiver wires at the start of the season. I could see him putting up similar numbers for the next several years.

RB:

Pierre Thomas: He's always put up steady numbers, and many owners believed that he was more talented than Ingram. Still, because of the offense that he plays in, and because of the committee he's a part of, people didn't seem to value him. I picked him up in several leagues at the start of the season off the waiver wire, but looking back at the final results from last season, he was RB32 in one of my leagues. Even with the success he's had this year, I wouldn't expect his price to move up too much.

Danny Woodhead (PPR): Even when he was with the Patriots, he put up steady numbers in PPR. He's been even better this year in San Diego. But I expect that when the all of the shiny new toys (rookies) come around, he will be pretty easy to acquire at a discount.

Darren Sproles (PPR): He's had a down year this year, but he's still RB 20 in PPR. He's been a PPR monster over the years, yet no one would ever pay that kind of price. Now that he's reached the magical age of 30, most of his owners will want to get something for him. But let's face it, he doesn't play like a typical RB, more like a WR. So isn't there a good chance that he'll age more like a WR? I could see him producing at a similar level to this year for at least 2-3 more years, maybe more.

WR:

Larry Fitzgerald: He's been hampered the past couple of years by horrendous QB play, yet he's still produced in the WR2 range (except for last year). Now that he's 30, many owners will probably want to trade him in. But he's still the guy that other WRs go to work out with in the off-season to take their game to the next level. He's still in awesome shape, has awesome hands, and there's no reason why he won't continue to produce at his current level for the next 5 or 6 years IMO. He'll never go back to being the #1 dynasty WR, but he'll be a steady WR for the next several years.

Marques Colston: He has been one of the steadiest WRs since he joined the league. He's had the knee issues, so many people don't trust him. But many owners would be surprised to know that in eight seasons, he's only played fewer than 14 games once (11 games in 2008). He's hit 70+ catches and 1000+ yards every season other than the 2008 season. He's been down a bit this year, so he may not reach the 70/1000 mark, but he won't be that far off. He should continue to produce at this level for another 2-3 seasons, as long as Brees is still his QB.

Andre Johnson: He's a guy that just continue to put up strong WR1 numbers (in PPR), even though the TDs have never been there. He's not cheap, but he's another one of the players that because of his age, owners trade him for less than he's worth. I think he's got 2-3 more years left. I wouldn't say that he's been under-appreciated over the years, but because of his age, you can probably get him for less than what he's worth.

TE:

Jason Witten: Mr. Reliable. One thing that you can count on is that he's going to play every game, He's been a steady contributor over the years. He's not going to compete with Jimmy Graham, but he gives steady TE1 numbers, and should continue to do that for another couple of years at least.

Greg Olson: Another guy that continues to put up decent numbers. Carolina seems to be a good fit for him, so he should continue to produce at this level.

These are just some of the guys I had in mind. I'd love to hear others' opinions.

 
I like your RB/WR/TE lists, but I'm not a fan of your undervalued QBs. For instance:

QB:

Eli Manning: The Giants have had a down year, Eli included, but Eli has never been a guy that people would give a lot to acquire, even when he was putting up QB1 numbers. Now, because of him having a down year, you could probably get him for very little. Worst case, he'll probably remain as a high-end QB2, or a good QB to play matchups with as part of a rotation.
Eli doesn't put up QB1 numbers. Only once since 2005 has he finished in the top 12 in PPG at his position (2011, when he finished 7th, iirc). Typically, Manning finishes in the 13-18 range in points per game, but because he never gets injured, his season-ending numbers and rankings wind up looking inflated. Historically, Eli Manning has always been a guy where, if you're starting him, you're getting KILLED on a weekly basis. He doesn't substantially outproduce guys like Jason Campbell or Carson Palmer or Brian Hoyer or Ryan Fitzpatrick who are available for free on the street.

I have a similar problem with your other two QBs (Dalton and Smith), for the same reasons. They're known mediocrities, and the best case scenario when you start them is that you have the worst starting QB in the league. I'd much rather burn my backup QB spot on an unknown quantity with better upside, and if I need a bye-week fill-in, just grab whatever flavor of the week is available on the wire.

Edit: I'm a big fan of rostering talented NFL backups as my QB2 and QB3 players in dynasty. In recent seasons, I've missed on Osweiler, Mallet, Henne, Rosenfels, Dixon, Johnson, etc... but I've also hit on Kaepernick, Foles, and Schaub. My hits have paid for my misses many times over. And if I need a bye-week fill-in or injury replacement, like I said, there's always production available on the wire in most leagues.

 
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Thanks for the reply, Adam.

I think that your response with Dalton illustrates my point. The guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons, and has put up borderline QB1 stats for all three seasons, yet no one wants him. Looking at two different scoring systems here's how he has done each season:

4pt passing TDs/ 1point for 20 yards passing/No penalty for INTs/Fumbles: QB16, QB11, and he's QB7 so far this year.

6pt passing TDs/ 1pt for 20 yards passing/-2 pts for INTs or Fumbles: QB14, QB13, QB10 so far this year.

Can you show me another guy that is roughly the same age, has put up roughly the same numbers, and has a similarly low fantasy perceived value? No, because there isn't one. Because he isn't a dual threat QB, doesn't have the rocket arm, and any other number of reasons, people think he's mediocre. Just like you said, you'd rather hold on to a lottery ticket that hasn't done ANYTHING, in the hopes that they'll turn out to be awesome, than to have a guy that is actually producing good numbers. I'm not saying he's a guy that is going to put up Manning/Brees/Rodgers type of numbers, but you're certainly not "getting killed" week to week with a guy putting up consistent QB1 numbers.

At the start of the season, I'm pretty sure I could've traded Geno Smith to get Dalton, just because Smith was the shiny new toy. The same will be true this year.

 
I think that your response with Dalton illustrates my point. The guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons, and has put up borderline QB1 stats for all three seasons, yet no one wants him. Looking at two different scoring systems here's how he has done each season:

4pt passing TDs/ 1point for 20 yards passing/No penalty for INTs/Fumbles: QB16, QB11, and he's QB7 so far this year.

6pt passing TDs/ 1pt for 20 yards passing/-2 pts for INTs or Fumbles: QB14, QB13, QB10 so far this year.

Can you show me another guy that is roughly the same age, has put up roughly the same numbers, and has a similarly low fantasy perceived value? No, because there isn't one.
But, really, what is the fantasy value of a guy who's put up QB14, 13, and 10 performances in his three seasons? If you draft him as your starter in a 12-teamer, you're giving up points on average every week to virtually all of your opponents at the single most important position in your lineup. By that rationale, he's delivering zero-to-minimal VBD, and so should have minimal value.

Now I consider that assessment unduly harsh, because nobody rosters only 1 QB in dynasty. And Dalton does carry value as a QB2, more so if you're relying on a boom-or-bust / oft-injured QB1 like RG3, Romo, or Kaepernick (in fact, if you drafted Kaep to be your QB1, owning Dalton might have saved your season this year). But "value as a QB2" in this sense is present value, not future value - more an insurance payout than a lottery ticket (unless you think Dalton is going to flip a switch next year and start putting up top-6 numbers going forward, which I don't). Generally it'll be a handful of points per game, for a handful of games, over a guy you can pluck off the wire like Fitzpatrick, Palmer, or (yes) Alex Smith.

What's the value of that? If you're in championship-now mode, or your league has huge rosters to the point where nearly all NFL starters are owned, potentially quite a bit. Otherwise, it's the probability-weighted long-term VBD from Dalton flipping that switch minus the weighted long-term opportunity cost of not carrying a guy like Foles, Pryor, or Manuel instead.

It doesn't take an unreasonable set of assumptions to make the result of that calculation fairly small, if not negative. And Dalton is the best-case among the three QBs you listed. Everything about him applies to Eli and Smith, only more so.

 
The QB's you list aren't undervalued--they're perfectly valued as they are. The market has taken care of it. Low-end QB1's lacking top-5 upside are worth very little in start-1 QB leagues. You can find that production anywhere, so they just become big-name roster cloggers.

 
James Jones had somewhat of an uneven year, but he's been undervalued his entire career relative to his production.

 
James Jones had somewhat of an uneven year, but he's been undervalued his entire career relative to his production.
What production? With the exception of the outlier TD total last year, Jones has been a FF WR4 (or worse) his entire career. He's garbage, even in the spectacular situation in GB -- and there's a pretty decent chance he isn't in GB after this year.

 
Thanks for the reply, Adam.

I think that your response with Dalton illustrates my point. The guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons, and has put up borderline QB1 stats for all three seasons, yet no one wants him. Looking at two different scoring systems here's how he has done each season:

4pt passing TDs/ 1point for 20 yards passing/No penalty for INTs/Fumbles: QB16, QB11, and he's QB7 so far this year.

6pt passing TDs/ 1pt for 20 yards passing/-2 pts for INTs or Fumbles: QB14, QB13, QB10 so far this year.

Can you show me another guy that is roughly the same age, has put up roughly the same numbers, and has a similarly low fantasy perceived value? No, because there isn't one. Because he isn't a dual threat QB, doesn't have the rocket arm, and any other number of reasons, people think he's mediocre. Just like you said, you'd rather hold on to a lottery ticket that hasn't done ANYTHING, in the hopes that they'll turn out to be awesome, than to have a guy that is actually producing good numbers. I'm not saying he's a guy that is going to put up Manning/Brees/Rodgers type of numbers, but you're certainly not "getting killed" week to week with a guy putting up consistent QB1 numbers.

At the start of the season, I'm pretty sure I could've traded Geno Smith to get Dalton, just because Smith was the shiny new toy. The same will be true this year.
Well, the "roughly the same age, roughly the same numbers" criteria restricts the sample too much. How many players can you name that are roughly the same age as Dalton and have put up roughly the same numbers, REGARDLESS of how they're valued going forward?

Regardless, Dalton's been in the league three years now, and he's never put up better than atrocious QB1 numbers. This year, he's 12th in PPG among guys with at least 6 appearances (behind Foles, Rodgers, and McCown). Last year, he was 14th. As a rookie, he was 21st. Over the past 3 years, among guys with at least 24 appearances (i.e. a year and a half), Dalton ranks 16th, right between Eli and Carson. He's a known mediocrity.

Almost every fantasy-viable QB has shown it within his first three seasons as a starter. Very few times when we have still been waiting for a guy to take the leap after 3 years has it worked out in our favor. Two of the few rare counterexamples are Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. The problem is that, by the end of year 3, we knew both Brady and Roethlisberger were phenomenal QBs who just happened to play in a system that depressed their numbers. Andy Dalton is the opposite- he's an infuriating QB who plays with one of the best offensive supporting casts in the league today, but can still barely manage to put up worst-QB1-in-the-league type numbers. Lots of Cincinnati fans are already openly wondering whether he's the answer. Many people have called him the limiting factor in his team's success. The same was not true of Roeth and Brady.

I'm firmly of the belief that this is what you can hope for from Dalton going forward. He's the kind of guy who stays healthy and keeps the starting job (maybe), but who leaves you at a competitive disadvantage against the rest of the league every time you're forced to start him. Moreover, he's not going to substantially outscore the Brian Hoyers, the Jason Campbells, the Ryan Fitzpatricks, or the Carson Palmers of the world- guys who are essentially available for free or next-to-free. If a guy has little upside, leaves me at a competitive disadvantage, and won't substantively outperform other guys available for a tiny fraction of his price, then the value I place on him is going to be very, very low.

You mentioned Geno Smith, but I would have rather had Geno Smith last year, and this year I'll rather have whatever other new shiny toy comes down the pike. These shiny toys are long shots, but they have a chance of actually being useful fantasy players I can actually start, which is more than I can say for the Andy Daltons and Eli Mannings of the world. And with Eli Manning, at least I believe he's a good QB and think he's more likely than not to still have a starting job 3 years from now. I have no such certainty with Andy Dalton, who is holding his team back more than helping them succeed.

 
Edit: I'm a big fan of rostering talented NFL backups as my QB2 and QB3 players in dynasty. In recent seasons, I've missed on Osweiler, Mallet, Henne, Rosenfels, Dixon, Johnson, etc... but I've also hit on Kaepernick, Foles, and Schaub. My hits have paid for my misses many times over. And if I need a bye-week fill-in or injury replacement, like I said, there's always production available on the wire in most leagues.
I like this strategy too. I've made a killing trading QBs once they hit. I'm still holding onto Osweiler and Mallet in a couple of deeper dynasties, and I have Nassib as well. Only downside was because it was a deeper dynasty and I didn't have low waiver priority (Zealots league, with worst-to-first waivers), I had to trade for a QB when Rodgers went down for me, but I was able to acquire someone relatively cheaply.

 
I think Decker is the posterchild after 2 straight WR1 years.
I would wholeheartedly agree, where he not a free agent after the season. Instead, I agree with reservations.

Add Jordy Nelson to the list. For his career, Wes Welker has been the king of "undervalued relative to his production". In fact, we could probably just say white WRs, in general, are undervalued relative to their production.

 
Thanks for the reply, Adam.

I think that your response with Dalton illustrates my point. The guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons, and has put up borderline QB1 stats for all three seasons, yet no one wants him. Looking at two different scoring systems here's how he has done each season:

4pt passing TDs/ 1point for 20 yards passing/No penalty for INTs/Fumbles: QB16, QB11, and he's QB7 so far this year.

6pt passing TDs/ 1pt for 20 yards passing/-2 pts for INTs or Fumbles: QB14, QB13, QB10 so far this year.

Can you show me another guy that is roughly the same age, has put up roughly the same numbers, and has a similarly low fantasy perceived value? No, because there isn't one. Because he isn't a dual threat QB, doesn't have the rocket arm, and any other number of reasons, people think he's mediocre. Just like you said, you'd rather hold on to a lottery ticket that hasn't done ANYTHING, in the hopes that they'll turn out to be awesome, than to have a guy that is actually producing good numbers. I'm not saying he's a guy that is going to put up Manning/Brees/Rodgers type of numbers, but you're certainly not "getting killed" week to week with a guy putting up consistent QB1 numbers.

At the start of the season, I'm pretty sure I could've traded Geno Smith to get Dalton, just because Smith was the shiny new toy. The same will be true this year.
:shrug: Dalton is the #14 QB in most of my leagues. I think he may get better, but give me Bridgewater and Manuel over him.

Bradford has better ppg stats and is underrated.

Guys I expect to be values due to perceived lack of upside; this is intended to be a list that you could reasonably draft, start, and win with (if this were my team in a FBG mock, I'd be happy)

QB: Rivers, Bradford

RB: CJ3, MJD, Tolbert,

WR: Nelson, Wayne, Colston, Sanders

TE: Daniels, Gates

 
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looking forward to signing up to my first dynasty league next year. seems like it'll help make the off season more excited

A few qbs who could be under-valued next year:

Kirk Cousins: the next 3 weeks could be just a taste.

Ryan Tannehill: the oline cant be any worse,

 
I think Decker is the posterchild after 2 straight WR1 years.
I would wholeheartedly agree, where he not a free agent after the season. Instead, I agree with reservations.

Add Jordy Nelson to the list. For his career, Wes Welker has been the king of "undervalued relative to his production". In fact, we could probably just say white WRs, in general, are undervalued relative to their production.
mainly cause there viewed as possession receivers and nothing else

 
an rb who could be really undervalued (hes been nothing but a thorn in my side)

Trent Richardson : i think year 3 has to be a make or break year for him..

 
Ryan Tannehill: the oline cant be any worse,
I'm a fan, have him in half my dynasty leagues and expect him to be a top 8 type guy going forward. He was a value play this off-season mostly because he's overlooked while Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaepernick had the headlines. Didn't think he met the OP, but I like the choice.

 
I think Decker is the posterchild after 2 straight WR1 years.
I would wholeheartedly agree, where he not a free agent after the season. Instead, I agree with reservations.

Add Jordy Nelson to the list. For his career, Wes Welker has been the king of "undervalued relative to his production". In fact, we could probably just say white WRs, in general, are undervalued relative to their production.
mainly cause there viewed as possession receivers and nothing else
For most of his career, Wes Welker HAS been a possession receiver and nothing else. Didn't mean he wasn't a fantasy uberstud, too.

 
QB

Roethlisberger - he seems perennially undervalued. He's still putting up points despite a really bad offensive line and the loss of his top target.

Cutler - had a nice season going prior to injury, coincidentally after he gets an improved line, improved TE, and a healthy/legitimate WR2.

Tannehill - obviously still a work in progress with possibly the worst offensive line in the league, but still QB15 ahead of the likes of Kaepernick and Flacco, less than 10 points behind Brady. If his line improves next year, I think he makes the jump to top 12.

WR

Fitzgerald - I agree with you. Offensive line has hurt the Arizona passing attack, yet Fitz has still produced.

Andre Johnson - Another good call. His TD production has always soured people, but with a new QB and coach next year we'll have to move on from that stigma.

Nicks - he's getting no love now, but that may change with the lure of a new situation. Still a great talent.

Holmes - he was on my DND list due to the grade 4 lisfranc, missing training camp, and QB situation, but he's looked good when healthy this year despite poor QB play. I think he's a salary cap casualty this offseason and, depending where he lands, could be a household name once again next year. He's only 29.

Wallace - despite showing plus hands his whole career he's had a bad case of the drops this year, but even more costly has been the o-line's problems. Deep threats don't do well when their QBs are constantly under pressure. He's still very young as is his QB.

Jennings - still looks like a very good receiver. QB situation in Min should be monitored. If it improves, Jennings could have value again. If not, he'll just be a wasted talent.

RB

Mathews - gets nothing but hate but he's RB15 thus far and his role is continuing to grow (snap % and targets have increased in the last 5 weeks). He's got 1 more year on his contract.

Rice/Pierce - Bal obviously had some issues this year. I'm not a big fan of Rice as a runner, but these guys are probably both undervalued right now.

Spiller - never owned him, but his ankle injury has really hurt his stock this year and has people questioning his ability to carry a decent sized load.

Lynch - reminds me of Gore a bit in that he's undervalued every single year. Not left for dead by any means, but just habitually undervalued.

Stewart/DMC - dirt cheap lottery tickets.

TE

H.Miller - starting to look more like his 2012 self.

Gronk - if anyone considers him non-elite then he's undervalued.

Finley - if he re-signs with GB, he'll be undervalued. Was on his way to a very nice year.

Olsen - Just puts up TE1 numbers. Nothing flashy. I don't think Carolina is the best fit for him, but it's not a bad fit.

Bennett - was doing better with Cutler - 7 games, 50 targets vs. 6 games, 29 targets.

 
I think Decker is the posterchild after 2 straight WR1 years.
I would wholeheartedly agree, where he not a free agent after the season. Instead, I agree with reservations.

Add Jordy Nelson to the list. For his career, Wes Welker has been the king of "undervalued relative to his production". In fact, we could probably just say white WRs, in general, are undervalued relative to their production.
mainly cause there viewed as possession receivers and nothing else
For most of his career, Wes Welker HAS been a possession receiver and nothing else. Didn't mean he wasn't a fantasy uberstud, too.
i was talking more about jordy and decker..

welker is always ppr gold, i am not sure how these concussions will effect him going forward

 
Ryan Tannehill: the oline cant be any worse,
I'm a fan, have him in half my dynasty leagues and expect him to be a top 8 type guy going forward. He was a value play this off-season mostly because he's overlooked while Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaepernick had the headlines. Didn't think he met the OP, but I like the choice.
yeah i wasnt sure either but figured throw his name in the head.. going along the lines of a late round pick. (as mentioned previously looking forward to joining a dynasty league next year and seeing how draft spots are effected by age and such)

another name you mentioned:

RGIII could be an extreme buy low candidate as well.

 
I think Decker is the posterchild after 2 straight WR1 years.
I would wholeheartedly agree, where he not a free agent after the season. Instead, I agree with reservations.
I was speaking more looking back than looking forward. Since DT broke out, it became an excuse parade on why he wouldn't continue to produce. Although certainly Manning's banner year has helped create a lot of wealth to be spread around.

I think Decker's even a more glaring case than Nelson because people view him as the 4th most valuable receiver on the team and afterthought. While Nelson is 1b to Cobb in value he's still treated as a very good asset. People were bailing on Decker this spring and summer for low upside prospects.

If he does leave for free agency, it certainly opens the door for bad things to happen, but it could be neutral as well (or even positive looking > 2 or 3 years).

 
QB:

Eli Manning: The Giants have had a down year, Eli included, but Eli has never been a guy that people would give a lot to acquire, even when he was putting up QB1 numbers. Now, because of him having a down year, you could probably get him for very little. Worst case, he'll probably remain as a high-end QB2, or a good QB to play matchups with as part of a rotation.
I've had it with this guy. There is no fixing it unless KillDrive is fired. Even then it may be too late. Throws off back foot, Can't throw a spiral and Giants stadium is not the place you want a QB throwing ducks. Previous years his chuck and duck has been bailed out by Cruz and company. Cruz got his cash. Always a % completion bottom feeder. Guys is lucky that Manningham and Tyree made miracle catches.

If he had any balls, he would change every call Killdrive came up with. He only produces like a stud when they run the hurry up because KilllDrive is not involved.

 
Is Decker just a product of having a HOF caliber qb or does he really have staying power post Manning? He had a few good games with Tebow but not enough to be consistently reliable. I'm thinking that he'll be more Hartline like going forward once Manning retires or leaves the Broncos.

 
FF Ninja said:
QB

Roethlisberger - he seems perennially undervalued. He's still putting up points despite a really bad offensive line and the loss of his top target.

Cutler - had a nice season going prior to injury, coincidentally after he gets an improved line, improved TE, and a healthy/legitimate WR2.

Tannehill - obviously still a work in progress with possibly the worst offensive line in the league, but still QB15 ahead of the likes of Kaepernick and Flacco, less than 10 points behind Brady. If his line improves next year, I think he makes the jump to top 12.

WR

Fitzgerald - I agree with you. Offensive line has hurt the Arizona passing attack, yet Fitz has still produced.

Andre Johnson - Another good call. His TD production has always soured people, but with a new QB and coach next year we'll have to move on from that stigma.

Nicks - he's getting no love now, but that may change with the lure of a new situation. Still a great talent.

Holmes - he was on my DND list due to the grade 4 lisfranc, missing training camp, and QB situation, but he's looked good when healthy this year despite poor QB play. I think he's a salary cap casualty this offseason and, depending where he lands, could be a household name once again next year. He's only 29.

Wallace - despite showing plus hands his whole career he's had a bad case of the drops this year, but even more costly has been the o-line's problems. Deep threats don't do well when their QBs are constantly under pressure. He's still very young as is his QB.

Jennings - still looks like a very good receiver. QB situation in Min should be monitored. If it improves, Jennings could have value again. If not, he'll just be a wasted talent.

RB

Mathews - gets nothing but hate but he's RB15 thus far and his role is continuing to grow (snap % and targets have increased in the last 5 weeks). He's got 1 more year on his contract.

Rice/Pierce - Bal obviously had some issues this year. I'm not a big fan of Rice as a runner, but these guys are probably both undervalued right now.

Spiller - never owned him, but his ankle injury has really hurt his stock this year and has people questioning his ability to carry a decent sized load.

Lynch - reminds me of Gore a bit in that he's undervalued every single year. Not left for dead by any means, but just habitually undervalued.

Stewart/DMC - dirt cheap lottery tickets.

TE

H.Miller - starting to look more like his 2012 self.

Gronk - if anyone considers him non-elite then he's undervalued.

Finley - if he re-signs with GB, he'll be undervalued. Was on his way to a very nice year.

Olsen - Just puts up TE1 numbers. Nothing flashy. I don't think Carolina is the best fit for him, but it's not a bad fit.

Bennett - was doing better with Cutler - 7 games, 50 targets vs. 6 games, 29 targets.
This is a great list. You could build a pretty solid roster just from this list despite there probably being only 2 names on it that would go in the top 50 of a startup. A few names I might add:

WR -

Steve Johnson - three straight years of WR1/2 production prior to 2013, and I'm guessing the Bills won't have to trot out a 4th-string QB every season. I like Woods to mature further next year and help draw additional coverage away from him. Still only 27.

V-Jax - No signs of slowing down at 30; Glennon has radar lock on the guy to where everyone in the stadium knows the ball is coming his way, but he's still making plays. His team is a real head coach and some better injury luck away from being right back in the mix next year. I predict he'll be wildly underdrafted next offseason.

TE -

Kyle Rudolph - Vikes are probably going to be trotting out yet another fresh new face at QB next season. If it's a rookie, he'll need a security blanket, and Rudolph is likely to be the guy. A good but not great talent, but at 24 he's younger than "up-and-comers" like Fleener and Jared Cook while already having one more TE1 season under his belt than either.

RB -

Mathews, Lynch, and Thomas have already been mentioned, so I'll dig a little deeper:

Jacquizz Rodgers (PPR) - I've personally never been a fan of the kid's skillset, but at a near-zero cost you can get a guy who's carving out a pretty nice niche in what should be a consistently good offense and could get you 50+ catches. Oh, and he's 23.

 
Tornacl said:
Thanks for the reply, Adam.

I think that your response with Dalton illustrates my point. The guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons, and has put up borderline QB1 stats for all three seasons, yet no one wants him. Looking at two different scoring systems here's how he has done each season:

4pt passing TDs/ 1point for 20 yards passing/No penalty for INTs/Fumbles: QB16, QB11, and he's QB7 so far this year.

6pt passing TDs/ 1pt for 20 yards passing/-2 pts for INTs or Fumbles: QB14, QB13, QB10 so far this year.

Can you show me another guy that is roughly the same age, has put up roughly the same numbers, and has a similarly low fantasy perceived value? No, because there isn't one. Because he isn't a dual threat QB, doesn't have the rocket arm, and any other number of reasons, people think he's mediocre. Just like you said, you'd rather hold on to a lottery ticket that hasn't done ANYTHING, in the hopes that they'll turn out to be awesome, than to have a guy that is actually producing good numbers. I'm not saying he's a guy that is going to put up Manning/Brees/Rodgers type of numbers, but you're certainly not "getting killed" week to week with a guy putting up consistent QB1 numbers.

At the start of the season, I'm pretty sure I could've traded Geno Smith to get Dalton, just because Smith was the shiny new toy. The same will be true this year.
The final season rankings mask how inconsistent Dalton has been. He had that one huge month, half of which was probably on the bench for everyone because nobody really wanted to start him. Other than that, he's been mediocre-average.

 
I think Dobson could be a pretty good value this off-season. His slow start and injury might mask the fact that he was the starting #2 before he got hurt.

 

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