Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (27 Viewers)

[Gally]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

What's the value of Hurts in a start 1 QB league ... 1 1st Round Pick or would you have to go to 2 1sts to get him?

QB situation suck and Hurts owner willing to deal, but wants 2 1sts.

I can't see a situation where I'd give 2 1sts for ANY QB in a 1QB league. MAYBE for Josh Allen if the 1sts are late?

Both 1sts are late .. Only considering as I am a strong contender and have Dak to win it for me with Daniels out.

I’d stick with Dak. He should be plenty. I agree with @InDitkaWeTrust - no QB is worth 2 1sts in a 1 QB format. And you have plenty in Dak to win it all.

I will live with Dak and have Brissett just in case until or IF Daniels comes back. DJones owner has to start him with Purdy and Burrows out and Stafford owner starting him over Mahomes and Love.. should have jumped on offer to get Stafford weeks ago but both Daniels and Dak were healthy at the time.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

This is true, though I see no reason why anyone would be panic selling Loveland. I know I wasn’t expecting an immediate impact from him given his off-season injury and the crowded offense in Chicago. We’ve also already seen flashes of the player he can be, and those flashes have been extremely promising. I’d be buying for a 1st all day in dynasty.

 

[Don Quixote]

Another Superflex dump trade:

Traded Jacoby Brissett and received 2026 3rd round pick, Courtland Sutton, and $75 auction dollars.

Probably won’t spend the auction dollars, but, whatever, it was included in the offer to me — maybe I can flip. I think I would taken just a 3rd or Sutton alone for Brissett.

ETA: Alright - flipped the $75 for a 2026 5th.

 

[Gally]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

This is true, though I see no reason why anyone would be panic selling Loveland. I know I wasn’t expecting an immediate impact from him given his off-season injury and the crowded offense in Chicago. We’ve also already seen flashes of the player he can be, and those flashes have been extremely promising. I’d be buying for a 1st all day in dynasty.

I wasn't speaking to the specific trade or offer. I just am not a fan of trade partners referencing what they spent on a player months or years ago as a way to justify their cost. The initial cost is irrelevant once more information has happened on the field.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

This is true, though I see no reason why anyone would be panic selling Loveland. I know I wasn’t expecting an immediate impact from him given his off-season injury and the crowded offense in Chicago. We’ve also already seen flashes of the player he can be, and those flashes have been extremely promising. I’d be buying for a 1st all day in dynasty.

I wasn't speaking to the specific trade or offer. I just am not a fan of trade partners referencing what they spent on a player months or years ago as a way to justify their cost. The initial cost is irrelevant once more information has happened on the field.

Amen... values fluctuate weekly. The joys of selling high and buying low!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

Sure but nothing bad has happened.

I disagree that it’s “irrelevant” - it’s totally relevant since that was the acquisition cost. If the player hasn’t been devalued, they should command similar value. If they’ve outperformed their draft position, even better.

In this specific deal, the player is worth at least their initial cost, thus my response.

It’s not like a car where the minute you drive it off the lot it’s devalued by 30%, yet that other owner’s opening salvo seemed light considering acquisition cost.

Anyway, we can agree to disagree here. In general, I agree that draft capital is sunk costs & shouldn’t really matter. But in this specific case, it’s a player who was just drafted, so I see no reason to sell for less.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t understand some people. You paid a 1st and this yambag doesn’t want to even offer you what you paid?

It's irrelevant what draft pick was used to acquire a player back in May-August. What matters is information and what has happened since he has actually been on an NFL field.

This is true, though I see no reason why anyone would be panic selling Loveland. I know I wasn’t expecting an immediate impact from him given his off-season injury and the crowded offense in Chicago. We’ve also already seen flashes of the player he can be, and those flashes have been extremely promising. I’d be buying for a 1st all day in dynasty.

I wasn't speaking to the specific trade or offer. I just am not a fan of trade partners referencing what they spent on a player months or years ago as a way to justify their cost. The initial cost is irrelevant once more information has happened on the field.

Amen... values fluctuate weekly. The joys of selling high and buying low!

Larry David eh

 

[Gally]

Anyway, we can agree to disagree here. In general, I agree that draft capital is sunk costs & shouldn’t really matter. But in this specific case, it’s a player who was just drafted, so I see no reason to sell for less.

Loveland has a value based on how he has performed and the expectation on his development based on what he has done on the field. I agree that he hasn't "lost value" based on his performance but where he was drafted in a rookie draft has little to no impact on what that value is. I would say taking a TE in a rookie draft in the first round is reaching and virtually no TE is worth drafting in the first round of a rookie draft (TE premium excepted).

Now you can evaluate him today as being a 1st round value but that has nothing to do with where he was actually drafted.

 

[BespokeJort]

Anyway, we can agree to disagree here. In general, I agree that draft capital is sunk costs & shouldn’t really matter. But in this specific case, it’s a player who was just drafted, so I see no reason to sell for less.

Loveland has a value based on how he has performed and the expectation on his development based on what he has done on the field. I agree that he hasn't "lost value" based on his performance but where he was drafted in a rookie draft has little to no impact on what that value is. I would say taking a TE in a rookie draft in the first round is reaching and virtually no TE is worth drafting in the first round of a rookie draft (TE premium excepted).

Now you can evaluate him today as being a 1st round value but that has nothing to do with where he was actually drafted.

I mean, that’s 100% true in theory but also you will generally never get a guy sending offers well below recent acquisition cost without anything bad happening. So the value you’re talking about doesn’t matter any more than the acquisition cost does; less if you actually want to acquire the player.

Nobody’s giving up a TE they just took in the 1st for a 2nd based on “it’s a reach to take a TE in the 1st,” true or not

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyway, we can agree to disagree here. In general, I agree that draft capital is sunk costs & shouldn’t really matter. But in this specific case, it’s a player who was just drafted, so I see no reason to sell for less.

Loveland has a value based on how he has performed and the expectation on his development based on what he has done on the field. I agree that he hasn't "lost value" based on his performance but where he was drafted in a rookie draft has little to no impact on what that value is. I would say taking a TE in a rookie draft in the first round is reaching and virtually no TE is worth drafting in the first round of a rookie draft (TE premium excepted).

Now you can evaluate him today as being a 1st round value but that has nothing to do with where he was actually drafted.

I mean, that’s 100% true in theory but also you will generally never get a guy sending offers well below recent acquisition cost without anything bad happening. So the value you’re talking about doesn’t matter any more than the acquisition cost does; less if you actually want to acquire the player.

Nobody’s giving up a TE they just took in the 1st for a 2nd based on “it’s a reach to take a TE in the 1st,” true or not

This, 100%. That’s exactly why I made the analogy to a new car.

Again, *in general* I agree with Gally about draft capital vs present value. But when we’re talking about a dude at a premium position who was just drafted at that cost, there’s zero reason to take less for him, especially after he’s proved that he can produce for FF.

I find the part about “never take a TE with a 1st round pick” a little ironic, as it’s basically saying “well I wouldn’t pay that so he’s not worth that”, which is a bit of magical thinking. I’d say that’s every bit of a logical disconnect as sunk cost fallacy.

Imma have to try that next time I’m trying to buy on someone’s highly drafted asset, “hey, I know you paid a 1st for Gibbs but I would never pay a 1st for a RB, so I’ll offer you 2x 2nds. Deal?”

Cmon man. lol

 

[wlwiles]

Where do we see Kaleb Johnson's value these days? Feels way too early to call him a bust, but I think I have an opportunity to buy him and trying to gauge whats fair for him seems like throwing darts in the dark while spinning in circles. Anyone seen him traded lately?

 

[Gally]

I find the part about “never take a TE with a 1st round pick” a little ironic, as it’s basically saying “well I wouldn’t pay that so he’s not worth that”, which is a bit of magical thinking. I’d say that’s every bit of a logical disconnect as sunk cost fallacy.

Imma have to try that next time I’m trying to buy on someone’s highly drafted asset, “hey, I know you paid a 1st for Gibbs but I would never pay a 1st for a RB, so I’ll offer you 2x 2nds. Deal?”

Cmon man. lol

What I meant by that is just because you drafted someone (not talking specifics but generalities) in the first round doesn't mean that guy was a first round value. So trying to use that as a baseline isn't meaningful. How the player has actually performed is what matters.

Of course players can play their way into value which is the whole point I am trying to make. Gibbs is a first round talent and has proven to be at the NFL level. There is meaningful data to support that value which is my whole point. Doesn't matter where he was drafted as he has shown to be worth more than a first round pick based on his play.

People reach in the draft or players fall in the draft all the time. Which is another reason that draft capital is meaningless in trade value discussions once players get on the field. That is what matters.

I understand that for rookies you are trying to set a baseline value so equating where they were drafted as a possible baseline starting point seems to make sense but it really doesn't because of the reach/fall aspect. However, I think what you are really doing is stating that you believe player X has first round value based on his play. That currently he has shown potential and you are placing the value at 1st round status but that really has nothing to do with where he was drafted in May. It is based on what he has shown on the field. A bit of semantics for sure.

There are people that will say I drafted player X in the first round so he has that value when Player X hasn't even been active on Sundays. That is the fallacy I am pointing out by using draft capital in trade negotiations.

 

[Gally]

Where do we see Kaleb Johnson's value these days? Feels way too early to call him a bust, but I think I have an opportunity to buy him and trying to gauge whats fair for him seems like throwing darts in the dark while spinning in circles. Anyone seen him traded lately?

Well obviously he was a FF first round draft pick so that is what he is worth.......hahahahaha

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Where do we see Kaleb Johnson's value these days? Feels way too early to call him a bust, but I think I have an opportunity to buy him and trying to gauge whats fair for him seems like throwing darts in the dark while spinning in circles. Anyone seen him traded lately?

I think it really depends on bench size. In smaller bench leagues like FFPC, he doesn't have much value right now. In deeper bench leagues, I'd expect him to still have mid to late 2nd round value. Though, with deep benches, the temptation to sell might be a good bit less.

 

[wlwiles]

Where do we see Kaleb Johnson's value these days? Feels way too early to call him a bust, but I think I have an opportunity to buy him and trying to gauge whats fair for him seems like throwing darts in the dark while spinning in circles. Anyone seen him traded lately?

Well obviously he was a FF first round draft pick so that is what he is worth.......hahahahaha

I know you're joking and I agree with your earlier sentiments about this...but in real life leagues that feeling of "I spent a first so I can't sell him for peanuts yet" is a real thing with a ton of owners. They're wrong, but it happens all over the place.

I know, I know, it's KTC...but they list him as RB37, one spot behind Vidal (RB36) and one spot ahead of Rachaad White (RB38). In the same tier with Theo Johnson, Hockenson, Jeudy, Meyers, Jauan Jennings. Somewhere between a late 2nd and early 3rd in SF. I'd pay the 2.11-3.02 for him for the upside, and I'd absolutely trade someone like Jeudy or Meyers or Hockenson if I had the depth to spare. But I just can't imagine that a Kaleb owner is ready to take anything less than a mid-second at the lowest yet.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There are people that will say I drafted player X in the first round so he has that value when Player X hasn't even been active on Sundays. That is the fallacy I am pointing out by using draft capital in trade negotiations.

Which is the general point you’re making, which I’ve said a couple of times I’m in agreement with.

But in this topic we are discussing specific values of specific players. And in the context of this specific player, the draft capital invested matters in his present day valuation.

Because again, he’s not like a new car where the day after your FF draft he’s lost 30% because he was driven off the lot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Where do we see Kaleb Johnson's value these days? Feels way too early to call him a bust, but I think I have an opportunity to buy him and trying to gauge whats fair for him seems like throwing darts in the dark while spinning in circles. Anyone seen him traded lately?

Well obviously he was a FF first round draft pick so that is what he is worth.......hahahahaha

I know you're joking and I agree with your earlier sentiments about this...but in real life leagues that feeling of "I spent a first so I can't sell him for peanuts yet" is a real thing with a ton of owners. They're wrong, but it happens all over the place.

I know, I know, it's KTC...but they list him as RB37, one spot behind Vidal (RB36) and one spot ahead of Rachaad White (RB38). In the same tier with Theo Johnson, Hockenson, Jeudy, Meyers, Jauan Jennings. Somewhere between a late 2nd and early 3rd in SF. I'd pay the 2.11-3.02 for him for the upside, and I'd absolutely trade someone like Jeudy or Meyers or Hockenson if I had the depth to spare. But I just can't imagine that a Kaleb owner is ready to take anything less than a mid-second at the lowest yet.

I traded up to take Kaleb in a dynasty start-up.

I would rather hold to see if he becomes more involved next year.

Definitely sunk cost, but again - we are talking about FF players, not stocks or bonds. It is absolutely in the realm of possibility that Warren & Gainwell get hurt and Kaleb becomes FF relevant.

I see no reason to sell him for peanuts because while in FF circles he’s a “bust”, we have no idea what the Steelers really think of him long-term. We only know what he’s produced and what *our* expectations were. Maybe they see him as a guy who’ll take a jump in his 2nd year.

We tend to be extremely short-sighted with assets in the FF community. Sometimes patience pays.

 

[Lehigh98]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

Im not high on hendo, but unless you're getting 2+ 1sts, he is a hold in my eyes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

Im not high on hendo, but unless you're getting 2+ 1sts, he is a hold in my eyes.

I’d say 2x 1sts is ballpark correct given his current hype.

 

[Gally]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

Im not high on hendo, but unless you're getting 2+ 1sts, he is a hold in my eyes.

I’d say 2x 1sts is ballpark correct given his current hype.

But he was drafted using only 1 first rounder. Shouldn't that be his value?.................. (I kid, I kid......hahahah)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

Im not high on hendo, but unless you're getting 2+ 1sts, he is a hold in my eyes.

I’d say 2x 1sts is ballpark correct given his current hype.

But he was drafted using only 1 first rounder. Shouldn't that be his value?.................. (I kid, I kid......hahahah)

Note I said his hype.

I certainly wouldn’t pay 2x 1sts for him.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Dynasty, best ball, 0.5 PPR, 0.25 point per carry
I'm rebuilding and going for the 1.01 this year and trying to add 2027 picks too.
Rebuilder strategy is usually get rid of all RB's, but I have Hendo.
A couple people are coming after him after his last two weeks.
Would you hold or move him at what may potentially be a high point?
What do you think it would / should take to trade him?
TIA!

Im not high on hendo, but unless you're getting 2+ 1sts, he is a hold in my eyes.

I’d say 2x 1sts is ballpark correct given his current hype.

But he was drafted using only 1 first rounder. Shouldn't that be his value?.................. (I kid, I kid......hahahah)

Note I said his hype.

I certainly wouldn’t pay 2x 1sts for him.

I wouldn't pay it, but enjoying the ride with him in a league or two. I would sell and start the bidding at a 1st plus and see what someone is willing to offer