Dynasty value of last year's big 3 RBs (T-Rich, Matin & Wilson (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

Richardson - complete flop this yr but the only one that was able to stay healthy. Many if not all fantasy players will surely give him one more try (given the right price) with the hopes of a solid off-season on the Colts can allow him to bounce back. I bet there will be owners in start ups that will take him in the top 10 of RBs or just right outside.

Martin - forgettable 6 game season but not a very career threatening injury, more concerning was that the 3rd stringer and below did a much better job but some of that could be due to the team performing better as a whole later in the season. Clearly will be in most people's top 5 and everybody's top 10.

Wilson - serious injury ended his season but no surgery which is a little strange IMO. So many options on him; hold him, buy low, sell for whatever you can get... career could be over, career could be shortened or he could recover just fine... no one knows. Wilson says hes fine and expects to be ready while management has stated that their not counting on him which is smart. Until we hear better news about his neck hes going to drop in many dynasties and even be labeled "untouchable" by some.

would like to hear other opinions on the 3 disappointing 2nd year RBs

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

T.Rich - was all ready to give him a complete camp with the Colts a few weeks ago, but he clearly looks lost, stay away

D.Martin - no way in hell I take him in top5

Wilson - I own in 1 keeper, will be keeping but I suspect they draft someone and committee him with A.brown, a neck injury to RB, could be all over

 

[EBF]

My opinion:

Martin - Hold/buy. One of the best rookie backs of the past decade and a solid all-around player. Should be a Lynch/Forte type of guy at worst.

Richardson - Buy if you can get him for a significant discount (say 4th-5th round startup value or the rough equivalent of a weak WR2/mid-late 1st round rookie).

Wilson - Avoid like the plague. Thought he had questionable vision/instincts in college. He looked really bad this year and now he's got injury questions to boot. If you're a fan, you can still find causes for optimism (his 2012 numbers in limited duty and his rare workout freak athletic ability). I was never a fan though.

 

[eNdblu]

Richardson - Giving him another season in dynasty, but no way am I drafting him in the top 6 rounds in redraft unless he flashes some major gusto in preseason. I'd draft him as an RB3/4 in redraft next season.

Martin - Think his value took a hit after seeing what the no name RBs off the street could do for the Bucs. Is Martin really as good as he was his rookie year? Or was it the OL and playcalling that were his benefit? New coach w/ Lovie Smith who never used Forte at the GL

Wilson - Not going anywhere near in redraft next season. Would consider buying in dynasty at a bargain (2nd rounder, maybe? Aging vet on last legs ala Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith?)

 

[KellysHeroes]

Wilson - serious injury ended his season but no surgery which is a little strange IMO.

pretty much on queue

Speaking in a Thursday radio interview, Giants GM Jerry Reese revealed David Wilson will undergo surgery on his neck.
Per the Newark Star-Ledger, the operation will take place this month. The Giants held off on surgery for as long as possible, but rest and rehab clearly wasn't getting the job done. Wilson is dealing with a herniated disc and spinal stenosis. Speaking about Wilson's health last week, Reese said "doctors think they can fix that," and that Wilson will be "able to play (in 2014)." Despite Reese's optimism, neck surgery is serious business. Wilson should be considered questionable for training camp.

David Wilson's neck surgery will take place on January 16.
That's next Thursday. Per the New York Daily News, Wilson will have a "fusion of the vertebrae" to repair his herniated disc. It's not unprecedented for an NFL running back, but is a serious operation. GM Jerry Reese has only said he expects Wilson to be ready for the "fall." He'll almost certainly miss the Giants' entire offseason program, and is highly questionable for training camp. Dynasty league owners can't count on having Wilson for Week 1.

 

[Zaphod]

Of those three, I think you have to have Martin much higher. All three have been heavily debated but unfortunately those threads have quickly devolved into personal agendas and trying to be 'right' over providing much substantial objective analysis.

Martin - he was disappointing and the second (and third) stringers came in and performed better. However, I think you need to look more closely at 2012 for a better evaluation of his true talent. The team was under a lot of stress to start this season and that personal foul penalty that cost them in game one really set the tone. By the time he was out of the lineup, the team as a whole was more in synch and I think that was reflected in the backups performance when compared to his. However, I will say that I think we got a glimpse of his warts and limitations and to expect 2012 to be the norm for him going forward is not likely.

Richardson - it is possible that he will become more of an integral part of the Colts offense, and at least for now it appears as if he will be given the chance next year. If he is going to have a resurgence, you will know early on in week 1 or 2. Taking all the growing pressure off of him from this season, getting more comfortable in the offseason, there is a chance that he could start performing and not thinking. My opinion is that all the excuses that were given in CLE and now IND are no longer excuses, but instead we are seeing an average back playing at his ability level and not his draft level.

Wilson - really hard to get behind him. I was higher on his ability than some in the threads coming out of college, but even considering the positives they seem like distant memories now. I would only consider as a late round flier (IF) there was a lot of good press in the offseason.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't think Martin should even be mentioned with the other two. Wilson was sucking when healthy, and now who knows if he will ever be healthy.

Richardson, Bleh, bust.

I can see martin throwing up a few 300 touch seasons, which wouid include about 50 catches or so, and some TDs. I can not see that from the other two. If Richardson approaches 300 touches, you will be looking at a team that never scores.

 

[MAC_32]

I want to believe Richardson is the guy I watched in college, but we are two years out and he is a shell of his former self. I'm not selling him, but I have made alternative plans in case he never pans out.

 

[Concept Coop]

Martin: Top 5 dynasty back. Late first round startup pick.

Richardson: More expensive Mark Ingram. Late 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson: Long-shot; mid-late 2nd round rookie pick.

 

[MAC_32]

Martin: Top 5 dynasty back. Late first round startup pick.

Richardson: More expensive Mark Ingram. Late 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson: Long-shot; mid-late 2nd round rookie pick.

given the nature of the Wilson injury I would rather have the pick.

 

[Concept Coop]

Martin: Top 5 dynasty back. Late first round startup pick.

Richardson: More expensive Mark Ingram. Late 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson: Long-shot; mid-late 2nd round rookie pick.

given the nature of the Wilson injury I would rather have the pick.

I wouldn't blame you. The information is all over the place. It do take some comfort in the fact that doctors have said he can play again, and that he wasn't instantly shut down like Irvin/Cooper. But, honestly, I have no idea what to make of the injury, other than the little bits of information we do have.

 

[Tool]

My opinion:

Martin - Hold/buy. One of the best rookie backs of the past decade and a solid all-around player. Should be a Lynch/Forte type of guy at worst.

Richardson - Buy if you can get him for a significant discount (say 4th-5th round startup value or the rough equivalent of a weak WR2/mid-late 1st round rookie).

Wilson - Avoid like the plague. Thought he had questionable vision/instincts in college. He looked really bad this year and now he's got injury questions to boot. If you're a fan, you can still find causes for optimism (his 2012 numbers in limited duty and his rare workout freak athletic ability). I was never a fan though.

So a top 5 back at worst? Umm, ok.

 

[Andrew74]

Martin: Top 5 dynasty back. Late first round startup pick.

Richardson: More expensive Mark Ingram. Late 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson: Long-shot; mid-late 2nd round rookie pick.

For me,

Martin: Top 5-10 RB. He was a victim of circumstance last year, but not top 3 like he was going into 2013.

Richardson: Agree, maybe even towards very high 2nd

Wilson: Lottery ticket. I'd pay late 2nd, early 3rd rookie pick.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Martin - Sell if you can find an owner buying for RB1 prices. in 2013 he put up mediocre numbers despite getting 20+ touches in 4 out of 5 games prior to his season ending injury. Martin is the most overrated RB in FF, IMO.

Richardson - The Browns trading him for a 1st in attempts to recoup their losses speaks volumes, IMO. Sell for a 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson - Buy if the price is a late 2nd/3rd round rookie pick. I hate his situation in NY and his injury is scary, but I also think his potential upside exceeds both Martin and Richardson.

 

[MAC_32]

Martin: Top 5 dynasty back. Late first round startup pick.

Richardson: More expensive Mark Ingram. Late 1st round rookie pick.

Wilson: Long-shot; mid-late 2nd round rookie pick.

For me, Martin: Top 5-10 RB. He was a victim of circumstance last year, but not top 3 like he was going into 2013.

Richardson: Agree, maybe even towards very high 2nd

Wilson: Lottery ticket. I'd pay late 2nd, early 3rd rookie pick.

i agree with your Martin valuation, but not the details. He created his value over one hot month in the middle of 2012. Other than that, production has been very underwhelming. I like the talent, but his actual output is a little concerning. Hoping, thinking, it's more coaching based than anything.

 

[Concept Coop]

Martin - Sell if you can find an owner buying for RB1 prices. in 2013 he put up mediocre numbers despite getting 20+ touches in 4 out of 5 games prior to his season ending injury. Martin is the most overrated RB in FF, IMO.

You have 12 guys you like more?

I think he's overrated as an NFL player, to a degree. But he does everything well, can handle a lot of carries, can catch the ball, can block, get tough yards, and break long ones. He's not as sexy as he seemed a year ago, and I do think Schiano leaving is a big negative, but RB2 seems harsh.

 

[opensourcebeer]

RB2 seems harsh for Martin, but those are the numbers he was putting up prior to the season ending injury. The coaching staff changes puts even more questions around what his 2014 campaign might look like. I think MAC_32 makes a great point about a lot of Martin's value being tied to an extremely hot month in 2012.

 

[Concept Coop]

RB2 seems harsh for Martin, but those are the numbers he was putting up prior to the season ending injury. The coaching staff changes puts even more questions around what his 2014 campaign might look like. I think MAC_32 makes a great point about a lot of Martin's value being tied to an extremely hot month in 2012.

If you're going to write of a hot streak, I think you should be more willing to forgive a cold one. I think he's somewhere between his hot stretch and his slow start.

 

[EBF]

My opinion:

Martin - Hold/buy. One of the best rookie backs of the past decade and a solid all-around player. Should be a Lynch/Forte type of guy at worst.

Richardson - Buy if you can get him for a significant discount (say 4th-5th round startup value or the rough equivalent of a weak WR2/mid-late 1st round rookie).

Wilson - Avoid like the plague. Thought he had questionable vision/instincts in college. He looked really bad this year and now he's got injury questions to boot. If you're a fan, you can still find causes for optimism (his 2012 numbers in limited duty and his rare workout freak athletic ability). I was never a fan though.

So a top 5 back at worst? Umm, ok.

There has never been a time when anyone seriously though Lynch or Forte was the best RB in the NFL. They've kinda hovered in that "very good but not quite uber elite" territory for much of their careers. That's pretty much how I see Martin. Very little not to like about his game. He can run with speed, power, and quickness. He can catch the ball and make plays in space. He's never going to be the godly ADP/LT type of player, but you can pretty much pencil him in for 1400+ total yards every season. Not going to turn this into a big debate, but...

- 1st round NFL draft pick

- most total yards for a rookie RB since Edgerrin James

- solid athletic ability

- versatile

- tangible evidence of dynamic big play skills (lots of long runs and catches last year).

Yeah, I'll sign up for that at RB4-5 overall prices all day.

 

[opensourcebeer]

RB2 seems harsh for Martin, but those are the numbers he was putting up prior to the season ending injury. The coaching staff changes puts even more questions around what his 2014 campaign might look like. I think MAC_32 makes a great point about a lot of Martin's value being tied to an extremely hot month in 2012.

If you're going to write of a hot streak, I think you should be more willing to forgive a cold one. I think he's somewhere between his hot stretch and his slow start.

Fair enough. For me, Martin doesn't look like an elite talent in any one aspect of his game and that's why I'm so low on him.

 

[Tool]

My opinion:

Martin - Hold/buy. One of the best rookie backs of the past decade and a solid all-around player. Should be a Lynch/Forte type of guy at worst.

Richardson - Buy if you can get him for a significant discount (say 4th-5th round startup value or the rough equivalent of a weak WR2/mid-late 1st round rookie).

Wilson - Avoid like the plague. Thought he had questionable vision/instincts in college. He looked really bad this year and now he's got injury questions to boot. If you're a fan, you can still find causes for optimism (his 2012 numbers in limited duty and his rare workout freak athletic ability). I was never a fan though.

So a top 5 back at worst? Umm, ok.

There has never been a time when anyone seriously though Lynch or Forte was the best RB in the NFL. They've kinda hovered in that "very good but not quite uber elite" territory for much of their careers. That's pretty much how I see Martin. Very little not to like about his game. He can run with speed, power, and quickness. He can catch the ball and make plays in space. He's never going to be the godly ADP/LT type of player, but you can pretty much pencil him in for 1400+ total yards every season. Not going to turn this into a big debate, but...

- 1st round NFL draft pick

- most total yards for a rookie RB since Edgerrin James

- solid athletic ability

- versatile

- tangible evidence of dynamic big play skills (lots of long runs and catches last year).

Yeah, I'll sign up for that at RB4-5 overall prices all day.

Ok but not lynch, Forter at worst. That's just ridiculous.

 

[KellysHeroes]

so rookie pick value

Martin - top 3 pick w/ a decent throw in.

T-Rich - most the owners won't be interested but a good offer would be a pick in the last quarter of the 1st round.

Wilson - at this moment owners will most likely get offered a 2nd