Dynasty Watch Week 11
Peyton Hillis, RB, Denver Broncos
What has he done so far
Peyton Hillis has seen spot duty for the Broncos so far this season and has produced and impressed in his first year. In week 1 versus the Raiders he got into the game and racked up 14 yards on 3 carries, plus on reception off of 2 targets. He was dormant in the box score until week 9 when he exploded for big numbers as a receiver against the Dolphins. He was targeted 9 times, and turned that into 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. However, the next week against the Browns he was only targeted once. He did end that Thursday night game with 24 yards on 8 carries, including an all important 4th down run where his amazing 2nd effort moved the chains. That run cemented Mike Shanahan's trust in the versatile rookie, and it appears that Hillis could be the Bronco back to have on your fantasy team.
Current Situation
The Broncos just signed Tatum Bell, but we have yet to see if Bell is in game shape. Even if Bell were to be the starter it really wouldn't affect Hillis' value all that much. The Broncos are a pass first team, and Tatum has hands of stone. Peyton is a fantastic receiver, as evidenced by his Razorback career where he was the leading pass catcher in 2 of his last 3 years. Hillis is no slouch as a RB either, he did break off a 65 yard run in college and was behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. When the Broncos get in the red zone it is Hillis' "swiss army knife" style of play that will get him in the lineup ahead of any other back on the team. All of the goalline touches should go to Hillis, and if Peyton is lined up at FB look for the play action pass to Peyton while Bell is sneaking up the middle.
Spotlight ETA
He's the projected starter against the Falcons, and if he has a good game he might just hold on to this job for good in 2008. Coach Shanahan loves this type of hard nosed player, and Hillis can line up nearly anywhere on the field.
Dynasty Upside
His dynasty upside is fairly high as a FB, but not so much as a RB. The situation in Denver is uglier than ever, and 2009 might not be much better. Denver could draft a RB in the draft again, and Hillis could be relegated to a receiving option on 3rd down and nothing more.
Final Thoughts
Every coach wants a player like Peyton Hillis on their football team. He's versatile, powerful, and a hard worker. For 2008, Hillis may be a nice late season pickup. However, his lack of long term upside comes from his limitation as a runner. He doesn't challenge the second level of the defense. If he breaks through the line, he doesn't have the 2nd gear or wiggle to make LBs miss. He can run them over, but that would slow down his momentum and allow the pursuit to catch up.
The Broncos want to pass as much as possible, and they want the play action pass to help open things up in the secondary. A more complete back would make the safeties bite more consistently.
PLAYERS YOU SHOULD ALREADY BE WATCHING
David Anderson
David has gone from 7th round pick and practice squad player, to an important part of the Texans WR corps and special teams. He was known at Colorado State for being a consistent receiver with great hands, as evidenced by his 2-year stretch where he caught over 120 passes and only had 2 drops! Anderson has to battle better athletes like Jacoby Jones for playing time, but David is able to get on the field because of an amazing work ethic, and that quickness on his routes. He is young, consistent, and could be seeing more playing time for the Texans in his future.
Dustin Keller
Dustin is getting more used to the NFL game, and the Jets are getting more sure as to how to use such a talent. While at Purdue Keller was a gamechanger at TE. He went to Purdue as one of the top 50 wide receivers coming out of high school and finished his career with the Boilermakers as one of the most productive TEs in school history. While not a traditional in-line blocker, Keller is a fantastic receiver. He has the speed and athletic ability to stretch the field and make big plays seem routine. He is best served coming into the play from motion, as he's not real sudden off the line. The Jets are using Keller as a big WR, and you could see his role emerge into that of a Chris Cooley type of H-Back. No matter what, the Jets know they have to find ways to get Keller the football, and you most certainly want him on your fantasy team.
