What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Dynasty- Where do you put Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

hooptd

Footballguy
Say your doing an initial dynasty draft this year and rookies are included. I'm wondering where Bush would be taken. I have L.Tomlinson, L.Johnson, S.Alexander and C.Portis as my top 4. I think a case can be made for taking Bush at #5. With the exceptions of Ronnie Brown & S.Jackson I can think of no one better to take than Bush. I think his upside is too much to pass on and I think he could still get you top 10-12 numbers this year, and look out brother in 2007 and beyond. :banned:

 
Say your doing an initial dynasty draft this year and rookies are included. I'm wondering where Bush would be taken. I have L.Tomlinson, L.Johnson, S.Alexander and C.Portis as my top 4. I think a case can be made for taking Bush at #5. With the exceptions of Ronnie Brown & S.Jackson I can think of no one better to take than Bush. I think his upside is too much to pass on and I think he could still get you top 10-12 numbers this year, and look out brother in 2007 and beyond. :banned:
Tough choice. My dynasty did a seperate rookie draft for the initial and we do a F/A and rookie draft for the next years, so in our draft, Bush is of course the no brainer #1 pick. I think Bush will end up being a lot like Duece McAllister in New Orleans. The first season he won't see as much action, the next season he will be getting more action, third season, he will get all the action. I think it is asking a little much for Bush to be top 10 or 12 in his first season with a starter all ready in place.....if he ends up going to Houston that is.

I have a feeling he will end up in Denver, but that is just me. Of course, if he does end up in Denver, he becomes a lock for rookie of the year and 1500 yards.....

 
I agree, Reggie Bush probably will split time this year. All rookies hit the wall and with Caddy's performance last year, I'm sure it's fresh in coaches mind. Keeping DD this year (assuming Texans don't trade the pick) makes a lot of sense. So for me Bush is a #2/#3 type RB in re-drafts. Dynasty I take him as my #2. But I'm sure some other owner would value him higher and risk a higher draft pick on him.

Just curious, how the heck is Denver going to pull off getting Reggie Bush??? I'm sure you have good reasons, I want to see what you're thinking.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
He may not be worth a top five pick, but he's definitely first round material.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Correct. I doubt there are many leagues where he would last longer than this.
That's in the ballpark of where Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald are getting picked. I would hope that most guys would be wise enough not to pick a rookie ahead of guys like that.
 
Correct. I doubt there are many leagues where he would last longer than this.
That's in the ballpark of where Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald are getting picked. I would hope that most guys would be wise enough not to pick a rookie ahead of guys like that.
In a dynasty draft I think those players all have very similar value.
 
Correct. I doubt there are many leagues where he would last longer than this.
That's in the ballpark of where Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald are getting picked. I would hope that most guys would be wise enough not to pick a rookie ahead of guys like that.
I often display too much risk aversion, but I would like to think I draft Bush ahead of both Fitz and Peyton.In a dynasty league only, after LT, SA and LJ, I'm not sure there is a single RB I'd rather have than Bush. That might not be popular thinking though.

 
Just curious, how the heck is Denver going to pull off getting Reggie Bush??? I'm sure you have good reasons, I want to see what you're thinking.
I'd love to see this happen. I doubt it will though.Would Houston give up the #1 for Denver's 2 #1s this year and its #1 next year?

Would Denver give up that much when they've had instant RB sucess with anyone they plug in there?

I'd be suprised if he went to Denver. But, I'd love it from a fantasy perspective.

 
I have only played dynasty league for about 2 years but I think if you want Bush in a start-up draft you are going to have to take an earlier risk if you want him. It may be a gamble but I would think he could go anywhere from about 1.03 - 1.08.

I have an upcoming draft and my pick is not set yet so I can not say where I would take him. ;)

 
Correct. I doubt there are many leagues where he would last longer than this.
That's in the ballpark of where Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald are getting picked. I would hope that most guys would be wise enough not to pick a rookie ahead of guys like that.
I often display too much risk aversion, but I would like to think I draft Bush ahead of both Fitz and Peyton.In a dynasty league only, after LT, SA and LJ, I'm not sure there is a single RB I'd rather have than Bush. That might not be popular thinking though.
I would take Portis because of his age and since he's on a team where you don't need to worry about the owner willing to pay players around him. After him it's mostly older players with a few years left or guys who have only played a year or two anyway and aren't much more proven than Bush - SJax, KJ, JJ, Cadillac, Brown and Benson. Allow I wouldn't do it, I wouldn't fault someone for taking him at #5, especially in a PPR dynasty league.
 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.

 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.

 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
Williams or Maroney in Indy>Bush in HoustonBush is definetly a better talent but I'll take the Indy offense over the Houston offense.

 
Say your doing an initial dynasty draft this year and rookies are included. I'm wondering where Bush would be taken. I have L.Tomlinson, L.Johnson, S.Alexander and C.Portis as my top 4. I think a case can be made for taking Bush at #5. With the exceptions of Ronnie Brown & S.Jackson I can think of no one better to take than Bush. I think his upside is too much to pass on and I think he could still get you top 10-12 numbers this year, and look out brother in 2007 and beyond.  :banned:
Tough choice. My dynasty did a seperate rookie draft for the initial and we do a F/A and rookie draft for the next years, so in our draft, Bush is of course the no brainer #1 pick. I think Bush will end up being a lot like Duece McAllister in New Orleans. The first season he won't see as much action, the next season he will be getting more action, third season, he will get all the action. I think it is asking a little much for Bush to be top 10 or 12 in his first season with a starter all ready in place.....if he ends up going to Houston that is.

I have a feeling he will end up in Denver, but that is just me. Of course, if he does end up in Denver, he becomes a lock for rookie of the year and 1500 yards.....
What have you read or heard that makes you think that R Bush will end up in Denver? As the proud owner of the first pick in my rookie draft that would be great, and I wouldn't trade the pick for LT and R Moss if that were the case. BUt I certainly haven't heard anything that would imply that Denver is even considering this. Link?
 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
Williams or Maroney in Indy>Bush in HoustonBush is definetly a better talent but I'll take the Indy offense over the Houston offense.
That is not the point. We can all value players/situations differently. The point is that Bush is worth more in terms of relative value compared to the other spots.
 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
Williams or Maroney in Indy>Bush in HoustonBush is definetly a better talent but I'll take the Indy offense over the Houston offense.
in addition to what wannabee said, ill just add that Bush truly is a once every 5-10 years talent at RB. I just don't see how you can pass on that for a typical first round talent RB in even the most ideal situation. Extreme example - If Larry Johnson up and quit football tomorrow, and the Chiefs drafted DeAngelo Williams, I would still take Bush over Williams.
 
There is an old addage that says you can't win your league in the 1st round of a draft, but you can lose it. In a dynasty draft, if you make a 1st round error you compound the mistake 4- or 5-fold since you are in effect redrafting this player each year.

Do I know how Bush will be used by his new team? Will his talent and the way he is used translate to elite-level fantasy production? I don't know yet who his new team will be. I don't know if that team will use him at the goal line or not. I don't know if that team's coaching philosophy and surrounding players will give him the opportunity for the number of offensive touches it takes for elite fantasy production. Role has a lot to do with fantasy success. Touches, what kind of touches, and where those touches are. League rules also are very important when looking at a guy like Bush. He may get a lot of yards but relatively few TDs, making him less valuable in TD-heavy leagues. He may get a lot of catches a la Westbrook, making him more valuable in PPR leagues than in non-PPR leagues. He will likely be returning punts. How will that affect his number of offensive plays, and does the fantasy league he's drafted in give additional value to individual players on special teams?

Let's assume for the moment he is drafted by the Texans. They know they have a special player, but they also have other players like D Davis and A Johnson who are young and will continue to have major role. Elite fantasy production requires a lot of carries and TDs, and I just don't know that Kubiak is the kind of coach that will want to use Bush 350 times a season. While there are some NFL teams that do this, there are a lot that don't - no matter how talented a player is, they just don't believe in it. Will Carr and the rest of the offense blossom with the addition of Kubiak and Bush, or will Bush's talent be wasted as he watches his QB on his back after another sack while trying to pass on every play because they are behind by two TDs? Is Bush an elite talent? Of course he is. But Bush in the first round runs a much greater risk than players whose role, likely number of carries, catches, and TDs, are better defined.

I'm in an initial dynasty draft that begins the same day as the NFL draft, so when I pick at #11 a day or two later I'll know where all of the rookies have ended up. Also, it's 1 PPR for WRs, 2 PPR for TEs, and 0 PPR for RBs, so there is no added value to Bush from that standpoint. At that pick, there's a good chance I'll have to make a decision on him. The league was formed from this board and these guys will be reading this, so maybe I've written this post to convince them to let Bush drop to me. Or maybe I wouldn't touch him at #11 and I hope someone else takes him ahead of me so a player I really want drops to me. You never can tell.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Do I know how Bush will be used by his new team? Will his talent and the way he is used translate to elite-level fantasy production? I don't know yet who his new team will be. I don't know if that team will use him at the goal line or not. I don't know if that team's coaching philosophy and surrounding players will give him the opportunity for the number of offensive touches it takes for elite fantasy production. Role has a lot to do with fantasy success. Touches, what kind of touches, and where those touches are. League rules also are very important when looking at a guy like Bush. He may get a lot of yards but relatively few TDs, making him less valuable in TD-heavy leagues. He may get a lot of catches a la Westbrook, making him more valuable in PPR leagues than in non-PPR leagues. He will likely be returning punts. How will that affect his number of offensive plays, and does the fantasy league he's drafted in give additional value to individual players on special teams?
Most of these things can be applied to any player changing teams just as well as someone coming into a new team through the draft. Heck, you could even apply most of these to new coaches or new systems being put in place, at which point you're alienating about half the 1st round RBs out there.The bottom line is you can come up with a laundry list of questions and potential hazards about pretty much any RB out there this side of LT and SA.
Elite fantasy production requires a lot of carries and TDs, and I just don't know that Kubiak is the kind of coach that will want to use Bush 350 times a season
Funny, I recall a certain fantasy god named Marshall Faulk that didn't get a lot of carries. In fact in his MVP season where he put up some of the best fantasy numbers ever he average 18 carries per game. He never had more than 260 carries with the Rams.
 
There is an old addage that says you can't win your league in the 1st round of a draft, but you can lose it.
Myth.
I think most good drafters would disagree, and draft players they have higher confidence in early and increase their upside/risk tolerance as the draft goes along. It's easy to simply say 'myth,' but if you draft without taking this into account you will not be as successful in the long run as those who use sound drafting principles.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Funny, I recall a certain fantasy god named Marshall Faulk that didn't get a lot of carries. In fact in his MVP season where he put up some of the best fantasy numbers ever he average 18 carries per game. He never had more than 260 carries with the Rams.
I guess if you are projecting Bush to have these kinds of pass receiving totals, you are right in using Faulk as an example. My point with Bush had to do with risk of not getting enough touches. The likelihood Bush will have 80+ receptions for 5 years in a row, score 17 pass receiving TDs in 2 years, have an opportunity to score 30 TDs on the ground those same years, etc, are pretty remote. Anything's possible, but actually expecting Bush to have the career Faulk had is optimistic in the extreme.
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1994 ind |  16 |   314   1282    4.1   11 |    52    522  10.0    1 || 1995 ind |  16 |   289   1078    3.7   11 |    56    475   8.5    3 || 1996 ind |  13 |   198    587    3.0    7 |    56    428   7.6    0 || 1997 ind |  16 |   264   1054    4.0    7 |    47    471  10.0    1 || 1998 ind |  16 |   324   1319    4.1    6 |    86    908  10.6    4 || 1999 ram |  16 |   253   1381    5.5    7 |    87   1048  12.0    5 || 2000 ram |  14 |   253   1359    5.4   18 |    81    830  10.2    8 || 2001 ram |  14 |   260   1382    5.3   12 |    83    765   9.2    9 || 2002 ram |  14 |   212    953    4.5    8 |    80    537   6.7    2 || 2003 ram |  11 |   209    818    3.9   10 |    45    290   6.4    1 || 2004 ram |  14 |   195    774    4.0    3 |    50    310   6.2    1 || 2005 ram |  16 |    65    292    4.5    0 |    44    291   6.6    1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 176 |  2836  12279    4.3  100 |   767   6875   9.0   36 |
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Personally, I place him at 5. My top 5 (which may be a bit diff form many):

Portis

LJ

SA

LT

Bush

I can't see him in any way, shape or form making it out of the 1st round in dynasty drafts. He should be picked anywhere from 1.05 to 1.12 IMO.

 
Funny, I recall a certain fantasy god named Marshall Faulk that didn't get a lot of carries.  In fact in his MVP season where he put up some of the best fantasy numbers ever he average 18 carries per game.  He never had more than 260 carries with the Rams.
I guess if you are projecting Bush to have these kinds of pass receiving totals, you are right in using Faulk as an example. My point with Bush had to do with risk of not getting enough touches. The likelihood Bush will have 80+ receptions for 5 years in a row, score 17 pass receiving TDs in 2 years, have an opportunity to score 30 TDs on the ground those same years, etc, are pretty remote. Anything's possible, but actually expecting Bush to have the career Faulk had is optimistic in the extreme.
              +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1994 ind |  16 |   314   1282    4.1   11 |    52    522  10.0    1 || 1995 ind |  16 |   289   1078    3.7   11 |    56    475   8.5    3 || 1996 ind |  13 |   198    587    3.0    7 |    56    428   7.6    0 || 1997 ind |  16 |   264   1054    4.0    7 |    47    471  10.0    1 || 1998 ind |  16 |   324   1319    4.1    6 |    86    908  10.6    4 || 1999 ram |  16 |   253   1381    5.5    7 |    87   1048  12.0    5 || 2000 ram |  14 |   253   1359    5.4   18 |    81    830  10.2    8 || 2001 ram |  14 |   260   1382    5.3   12 |    83    765   9.2    9 || 2002 ram |  14 |   212    953    4.5    8 |    80    537   6.7    2 || 2003 ram |  11 |   209    818    3.9   10 |    45    290   6.4    1 || 2004 ram |  14 |   195    774    4.0    3 |    50    310   6.2    1 || 2005 ram |  16 |    65    292    4.5    0 |    44    291   6.6    1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 176 |  2836  12279    4.3  100 |   767   6875   9.0   36 |
Not to hijack, but you know what stands out when I look over Faulk's #s?As great as he was and as much of a fantasy beast as he is always referred to - he only broke 15 combined TDs twice...in 2000 (26 total) and 2001 (21 total).

Just thought that was interesting.

Edit to add:

Just as an FYI, Alexander has already broken 15 tds 5 times (all in a row).

And Tomlinson has already broken 15 tds 4 times (also all in a row).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
Williams or Maroney in Indy>Bush in Houston
Disagree. You don't pass on Reggie Bush if you have 1.01, even if the Chargers draft him.
 
I've got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for our dynasty league and not positive Bush will be the pick. If Indy gets Maroney or Williams they'll be hard to turn down.
:X bush should be the #1 pick in all rookie drafts, period.
Agreed. If you do not want Bush (cannot imagine why), do not tell your league. You can easily trade down accordingly and collect extra picks.
Williams or Maroney in Indy>Bush in HoustonBush is definetly a better talent but I'll take the Indy offense over the Houston offense.
That is not the point. We can all value players/situations differently. The point is that Bush is worth more in terms of relative value compared to the other spots.
:goodposting: First rule of trading.

Determine PERCEIVED value, if not necessarily your views on ACTUAL value.

Trade down if you like, but if you don't want Bush at 1.01, someone does and will pay you for the privilege.

"The Art of the Deal" :)

 
Until he plays a down around 20 to 25.

Then we will see , he wont score much .

He might put up the yards but not the scores so for fantasy football between 15 and 25 .

 
Personally, I place him at 5. My top 5 (which may be a bit diff form many):

Portis

LJ

SA

LT

Bush

I can't see him in any way, shape or form making it out of the 1st round in dynasty drafts. He should be picked anywhere from 1.05 to 1.12 IMO.
What kind of drugs are you on .....

Portis 1 and Bush 5 .

Wow Bush wont do better then a top 15 , because inside the 15 you wont see him.

 
He may not be worth a top five pick, but he's definitely first round material.
The guy has nt played a down yet ..Gimme a break.You guys will be so disappointed .
Doubt it. I've seen enough games to know the real deal when I see it. Bush is the real deal. He's got the numbers, he's got the production, he passes the eyeball test. He's a stone cold lock to be a standout if he stays healthy. Last year I would've slotted Cadillac in the 2nd round of 12 team initial dynasty drafts. It didn't seem like a stretch. Bush is better than Cadillac. Why should it be a stretch to slot him in the first round? It's where he belongs.

 
There is an old addage that says you can't win your league in the 1st round of a draft, but you can lose it.
Myth.
I think most good drafters would disagree, and draft players they have higher confidence in early and increase their upside/risk tolerance as the draft goes along. It's easy to simply say 'myth,' but if you draft without taking this into account you will not be as successful in the long run as those who use sound drafting principles.
Tell that to the guys that drafted Priest in the first round in 2002 or 2003.I would say that over the last 5 years the number of people that go for that old addage has been reduced by quite a bit. Getting a guy that goes for 2000/25+ like Priest in his prime or SA this year is just as large an advantage over a "safe" 1400/10 guy as that 1400/10 guy is over a complete and total bust that goes for 0/0 (which most 1st round busts usually dont - first round busts usually go something like 1300/5 and are hence considered "busts").

When a guy gets 15 more touchdowns than everyone else that's just as large an advantage over the rest of the league as a guy that gets 0 touchdowns is a disadvantage.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Funny, I recall a certain fantasy god named Marshall Faulk that didn't get a lot of carries. In fact in his MVP season where he put up some of the best fantasy numbers ever he average 18 carries per game. He never had more than 260 carries with the Rams.
I guess if you are projecting Bush to have these kinds of pass receiving totals, you are right in using Faulk as an example. My point with Bush had to do with risk of not getting enough touches. The likelihood Bush will have 80+ receptions for 5 years in a row, score 17 pass receiving TDs in 2 years, have an opportunity to score 30 TDs on the ground those same years, etc, are pretty remote. Anything's possible, but actually expecting Bush to have the career Faulk had is optimistic in the extreme.
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1994 ind | 16 | 314 1282 4.1 11 | 52 522 10.0 1 || 1995 ind | 16 | 289 1078 3.7 11 | 56 475 8.5 3 || 1996 ind | 13 | 198 587 3.0 7 | 56 428 7.6 0 || 1997 ind | 16 | 264 1054 4.0 7 | 47 471 10.0 1 || 1998 ind | 16 | 324 1319 4.1 6 | 86 908 10.6 4 || 1999 ram | 16 | 253 1381 5.5 7 | 87 1048 12.0 5 || 2000 ram | 14 | 253 1359 5.4 18 | 81 830 10.2 8 || 2001 ram | 14 | 260 1382 5.3 12 | 83 765 9.2 9 || 2002 ram | 14 | 212 953 4.5 8 | 80 537 6.7 2 || 2003 ram | 11 | 209 818 3.9 10 | 45 290 6.4 1 || 2004 ram | 14 | 195 774 4.0 3 | 50 310 6.2 1 || 2005 ram | 16 | 65 292 4.5 0 | 44 291 6.6 1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 176 | 2836 12279 4.3 100 | 767 6875 9.0 36 |
My point was not to expect that Bush would have a career like Faulk (though it's not out of the question), but simply to dispell your point that elite fantasy production requires a lot of carries. The two usually go hand in hand, yes. But there are certainly exceptions, especially when we're talking about a RB with the receiving skills of Bush.And before we get too far into this, I should mention that the idea that Bush won't get lots of touches is far far far from a sure thing. Most don't realize that when factoring in all touches Bush had an NFL-sized workload (22 touches/game) this past season and had absolutely no problems with injuries. USC used two RBs, yes, but they used them an enormous amount and enough to give both an NFL sized workload. People love to question his size but I think if that were a legitimate concern in NFL coaches/scouts eyes we wouldn't see him as such a sure-fire #1 pick at a position that generally doesn't have many #1 picks and as the top graded prospect in the last decade.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top