E Manning / Rivers deal: early 06 guesses... (1 Viewer)

[BigRed]

Although still erratic and clearly having a ways to go to become one of the top QBs around, Manning showed some real promise last year, and may be ready to make the next step.

Rivers is a complete unknown as yet, but I suspect will do better than many think he will, and long-term will out-perform Manning, who I think will still be good but is riding the last name a bit..........

So IMO I maintain, as I did on draft day, that this was an extremely STUPID move by NY. Why they felt Manning was so much better than Rivers that they basically pissed away an extra #1 I'll never know. Should've let SD wallow in their own stupidness for drafting a guy who said he wouldn't play for them.

Agree/disagree and why?

 

[BassNBrew]

Need to know if we're supposed to include San Diego missing the playoffs last year and their early exit the year before into our calculations. Lots of opportunity already lost in the history books for San Diego.

 

[BigRed]

Need to know if we're supposed to include San Diego missing the playoffs last year and their early exit the year before into our calculations. Lots of opportunity already lost in the history books for San Diego.

? If NY hadn't made the offer, Manning wouldn't have played for them and they would have missed anyway, so not sure how this matters, but I figured it went w/o saying to include whatever has or hasn't happened w/the team since the trade was made.

 

[JZilla]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year? Merriman or was that their own pick?

 

[BassNBrew]

Need to know if we're supposed to include San Diego missing the playoffs last year and their early exit the year before into our calculations.  Lots of opportunity already lost in the history books for San Diego.

? If NY hadn't made the offer, Manning wouldn't have played for them and they would have missed anyway, so not sure how this matters, but I figured it went w/o saying to include whatever has or hasn't happened w/the team since the trade was made.

Just thinking that Fitz (if they stayed put) or DeAngelo Hall might have been a difference maker over the last two years.

 

[Yenrub]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year? Merriman or was that their own pick?

They got Merriman with the Giants pick I wasn't thrilled with the trade when it happend (still not happy). My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

In reality it's still too early to tell but Rivers is going to have to be a complete bust for the Giants to look good in this trade.

 

[JZilla]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year?  Merriman or was that their own pick?

They got Merriman with the Giants pick I wasn't thrilled with the trade when it happend (still not happy). My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

In reality it's still too early to tell but Rivers is going to have to be a complete bust for the Giants to look good in this trade.

Yeah I'd say the Chargers came out ahead in the deal. I don't see Rivers being that much worse than Manning, if at all.

 

[zamboni]

It's really hard to say, as Manning has shown signs that he's ready to become a very good QB, while Rivers hasn't shown anything yet.

Still, the pieces are certainly there for Rivers: the best RB in the game, the best TE, an ever-improving offensive line. The receivers are not top-notch, but still pretty solid (and I'd expect the team to address the Wr situation going forward).

Time will tell on this one, but it will be fun to watch.

 

[Sweeper]

Rivers is a complete unknown as yet, but I suspect will do better than many think he will

What is your basis and foundation for this logic? We are oing on three years without seeing Rivers throw a ball and the NFL has proven to be to tough for some of the best prospects. I would suspect that riding the bench for so long has hurt Rivers more then it has helped him and at the very least still has half a season of real game experience before truly being able to produce anything. After that, I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a bust ...

Only time will tell.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

All the Rivers negativity and saying he'll be a bust for sitting and learning the O for 2 years is laughable.

 

[Despyzer]

All the Rivers negativity and saying he'll be a bust for sitting and learning the O for 2 years is laughable.

Agreed.Take Rivers out of the equation and let me ask, who would you rather have? Merriman or Eli?

Not enough? How about Merriman and Kicker Nate Kaeding or Eli?

Now let's throw in Rivers...

Merriman, Rivers, and Kaeding

or Eli?

I think it would be tough to say that the Chargers didn't get the better of this deal.

 

[TheLaw]

Rivers is a complete unknown as yet, but I suspect will do better than many think he will

What is your basis and foundation for this logic? We are oing on three years without seeing Rivers throw a ball and the NFL has proven to be to tough for some of the best prospects. I would suspect that riding the bench for so long has hurt Rivers more then it has helped him and at the very least still has half a season of real game experience before truly being able to produce anything. After that, I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a bust ...

Only time will tell.

Yea, that really hurt Carson Palmer.

 

[Despyzer]

Rivers is a complete unknown as yet, but I suspect will do better than many think he will

What is your basis and foundation for this logic? We are oing on three years without seeing Rivers throw a ball and the NFL has proven to be to tough for some of the best prospects. I would suspect that riding the bench for so long has hurt Rivers more then it has helped him and at the very least still has half a season of real game experience before truly being able to produce anything. After that, I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a bust ...

Only time will tell.

Yea, that really hurt Carson Palmer.

and Chad Pennington.

 

[cstu]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year? Merriman or was that their own pick?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=136696&hl=

It should be noted that the Giants were able to sign Plax, McKenzie and Pierce because they didn't have to spend first round money on a #1 draft pick this year. So the equation isn't as simple as: Rivers + Merriman + Keading + Oben = Eli...

Interesting point, but compare the contracts:Shawne Merriman - five-year, $11.33 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.

Burress - six-year, $25 million with $8.25 guaranteed.

If Merriman comes anywhere close to the expectations the Chargers have for him then he will have been a steal with that contract. Burress on the other hand is now one of the NFL's top paid WR's and needs to perform like it - a very risky signing for the Giants.

Perhaps you could look at it like:



Rivers + Merriman + Keading + Oben = Eli + Burress + $2 million a year.

 

[tommyGunZ]

good post cstu. That's the first time I've seen the trade analyzed through the contract lens.

Interesting.

 

[bjlmonster]

good post cstu. That's the first time I've seen the trade analyzed through the contract lens.

Interesting.

Contracts should mean nothing in this issue. If an NFL team isn't paying a good player like Merriman, they are paying an average player something pretty similar.Chargers win for the basic reason that Manning would not have played for them.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Rivers is a complete unknown as yet, but I suspect will do better than many think he will

What is your basis and foundation for this logic? We are oing on three years without seeing Rivers throw a ball and the NFL has proven to be to tough for some of the best prospects. I would suspect that riding the bench for so long has hurt Rivers more then it has helped him and at the very least still has half a season of real game experience before truly being able to produce anything. After that, I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a bust ...

Only time will tell.

Yea, that really hurt Carson Palmer.

and Chad Pennington.

and Steve McNair.

 

[cstu]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

 

[Chase Stuart]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

That changes things for sure, but I'd still say yes. I think most Giants fans prefer Manning to Roethlisberger, however misguided that decision may be.

 

[-OZ-]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

That changes things for sure, but I'd still say yes. I think most Giants fans prefer Manning to Roethlisberger, however misguided that decision may be.

I happen to agree that neither would undo the deal right now, but what fun is that? I'm not sold on Rivers. The team should do alright because of the surrounding talent, but at least in my opinion, Eli will be the much better QB over the long term. Now, add Merriman and the rest into the equation, and the deal probably favors San Diego.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

That changes things for sure, but I'd still say yes. I think most Giants fans prefer Manning to Roethlisberger, however misguided that decision may be.

I happen to agree that neither would undo the deal right now, but what fun is that? I'm not sold on Rivers. The team should do alright because of the surrounding talent, but at least in my opinion, Eli will be the much better QB over the long term. Now, add Merriman and the rest into the equation, and the deal probably favors San Diego.

I don't think anyone's sold on Rivers, but if he busts he must really stink. He's got two years of training, and the best RB and TE in the game. Drew Brees was excellent the last two years with the same cast. It's hard to imagine a better situation for a QB to enter -- and to think, this is what Manning wanted to avoid.

 

[cstu]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

That changes things for sure, but I'd still say yes. I think most Giants fans prefer Manning to Roethlisberger, however misguided that decision may be.

I happen to agree that neither would undo the deal right now, but what fun is that? I'm not sold on Rivers. The team should do alright because of the surrounding talent, but at least in my opinion, Eli will be the much better QB over the long term. Now, add Merriman and the rest into the equation, and the deal probably favors San Diego.

I've never thought that Rivers was better than Eli and even during Eli's crappy rookie year I stood up him as a player. However, I can't stand the guy for pulling the crap with not wanting to be drafted by the Chargers. In the end the Chargers did what they had to do and it put them in position to be playoff contenders, even if it turns out that they got the worse QB.

 

[-OZ-]

I can't stand the guy for pulling the crap with not wanting to be drafted by the Chargers.

In the end the Chargers did what they had to do and it put them in position to be playoff contenders, even if it turns out that they got the worse QB.

I agree with you completely on the 2nd statement. Chargers are better off for it. I'm of two minds on the first statement, on one hand, sure. Every player should be happy to play for whatever team they land on. OTOH, I'm not going to hold it against him. I can understand it, but I'd personally think the Chargers were one of the better teams to play on. Maybe he knew Brees would improve so much?

 

[tommyGunZ]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

Even if the Giants could go back and select Roethlisberger like they were expected to?

That changes things for sure, but I'd still say yes. I think most Giants fans prefer Manning to Roethlisberger, however misguided that decision may be.

I happen to agree that neither would undo the deal right now, but what fun is that? I'm not sold on Rivers. The team should do alright because of the surrounding talent, but at least in my opinion, Eli will be the much better QB over the long term. Now, add Merriman and the rest into the equation, and the deal probably favors San Diego.

Are you sold on Eli? Eli has basically proven he's going to be at least an average NFL starter. Rivers hasn't proven anything yet, but those that have watched him practice and prepare for the last two years apparently believe he's good enough to be at least average.

I like Eli, but if I were a Giants fan I think I'd rather have Rivers/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

 

[BassNBrew]

BigBen/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

Corrected for the proper selection. Yes, the Giants did screw up.Of course the Charges could be sitting on Brees/Fitz/Merriman/and someone better than a kicker. Looks like both screwed the pouch.

 

[cstu]

BigBen/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

Corrected for the proper selection. Yes, the Giants did screw up.Of course the Charges could be sitting on Brees/Fitz/Merriman/and someone better than a kicker. Looks like both screwed the pouch.

Fitz was taken at #3 so the Chargers couldn't have drafted him, but it could have been Roy Williams.

 

[Chase Stuart]

BigBen/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

Corrected for the proper selection. Yes, the Giants did screw up.Of course the Charges could be sitting on Brees/Fitz/Merriman/and someone better than a kicker. Looks like both screwed the pouch.

Fitz was taken at #3 so the Chargers couldn't have drafted him, but it could have been Roy Williams.

Chargers had the 1st pick.

 

[diesel7982]

Giants got a franchise QB with huge marketability

Chargers got a fearsome pass rusher, a kicker, and possibly a franchise QB.

I dont see how thats anything but a win-win.

 

[diesel7982]

BigBen/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

Corrected for the proper selection. Yes, the Giants did screw up.Of course the Charges could be sitting on Brees/Fitz/Merriman/and someone better than a kicker. Looks like both screwed the pouch.

Fitz was taken at #3 so the Chargers couldn't have drafted him, but it could have been Roy Williams.

Chargers had the 1st pick.

They couldnt have gotten Merriman without trading down.

 

[Chase Stuart]

BigBen/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

Corrected for the proper selection. Yes, the Giants did screw up.Of course the Charges could be sitting on Brees/Fitz/Merriman/and someone better than a kicker. Looks like both screwed the pouch.

Fitz was taken at #3 so the Chargers couldn't have drafted him, but it could have been Roy Williams.

Chargers had the 1st pick.

They couldnt have gotten Merriman without trading down.

That's a good point.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

How about they both win?

Since I'm pretty sure neither team would "undo" the trade if they could.

I think this is the correct answer.It looks to me like the QB class of Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger is going to be very strong.

Roeth has mostly proven himself already. He hasn't put up spectacular stats, but he's proven himself as an efficient passer and a winner.

Manning had a rough start, but improved a lot last year. Looks like he'll be at least decent, possibly outstanding.

Rivers has played less than the other guys, but he had the best college career of the three, and has shown some impressive traits in limited action (including preseason games) in SD. He has a stronger arm than Brees, is accurate, and has a very quick release. Based on his play against the Broncos last year (when Brees got hurt), he also reads the blitz better than Brees. I think he'll be successful immediately in 2006.

But I could be wrong about any of those guys. Maybe Roeth will fall apart if the Steeler OL deteriorates and the team relies more on the passing game than the running game. Maybe Manning will never develop into a consistent passer. Maybe Rivers will suck. Anything is possible. But right now, I like all three of these guys quite a bit.

 

[Bojang0301]

First Vick and now Manning, The Chargers fear of Leaf has gotten them some damn good players. LT is arguably the best offensive player in the league and Merriman could become the best defensive player. Not too mention Rivers is unknown. If they would have gotten compensation for Brees, AJ Smith might have a statue built for him.

 

[BigRed]

My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

LOL @ popping a vein over a draft pick.

 

[BigRed]

I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a bust ...

What is your basis and foundation for this logic?

 

[BigRed]

Giants got a franchise QB with huge marketability

Chargers got a fearsome pass rusher, a kicker, and possibly a franchise QB.

I dont see how thats anything but a win-win.

Talk to me in a year or two when Rivers (IMO) is doing at least as well as Manning and they have Merriman tearing it up as well. (The question was who do you think will have made out on this deal long-term)

 

[Yenrub]

My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

LOL @ popping a vein over a draft pick.

Sometimes my emotions and a few get the best of me.

 

[56]

All of the talk about the Giants having blown it by missing out on Merriman with the pick they sent away in the Eli deal is flawed from the get go. If the Giants had stayed put and drafted Rivers or Big Ben, they very likely would have had a lower pick in the 1st round than the one the Chargers ultimately used to draft Merriman.

If it is Rivers or Big Ben on the roster, the Giants never would have gone away from Warner after week 8 of the 2004 season. But because the Giants were so sure that they had a franchise QB in Eli, they threw him into the fire and let him get his growing pains out of the way. Warner got banged up, and once they put Eli in they just decided to stick with him.

There is just no way the Giants would have turned the keys over to Big Ben or Rivers the way they did with Eli. Warner likely would have played out the season and gotten them 2 or 3 more wins, resulting in the Giants never having a shot at Merriman.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm not sold on Rivers. The team should do alright because of the surrounding talent, but at least in my opinion, Eli will be the much better QB over the long term. Now, add Merriman and the rest into the equation, and the deal probably favors San Diego.

Are you sold on Eli? Eli has basically proven he's going to be at least an average NFL starter. Rivers hasn't proven anything yet, but those that have watched him practice and prepare for the last two years apparently believe he's good enough to be at least average.

I like Eli, but if I were a Giants fan I think I'd rather have Rivers/Merriman/Kaeding/Oben than Eli at this point.

"Sold" on Eli? Not entirely, but there's only 2 QBs taken in the last 5 drafts that I'd prefer to lead my franchise. (Ben and Palmer)

 

[BigRed]

Sometimes my emotions and a few get the best of me.

I was kidding. I did something similar when the Colts drafted EJ over the Rasta-loon.

 

[Aaronur]

All the Rivers negativity and saying he'll be a bust for sitting and learning the O for 2 years is laughable.

Right. This doesn't make him a sure thing but it wasn't bad for his development.

 

[Yenrub]

All of the talk about the Giants having blown it by missing out on Merriman with the pick they sent away in the Eli deal is flawed from the get go. If the Giants had stayed put and drafted Rivers or Big Ben, they very likely would have had a lower pick in the 1st round than the one the Chargers ultimately used to draft Merriman.

If it is Rivers or Big Ben on the roster, the Giants never would have gone away from Warner after week 8 of the 2004 season. But because the Giants were so sure that they had a franchise QB in Eli, they threw him into the fire and let him get his growing pains out of the way. Warner got banged up, and once they put Eli in they just decided to stick with him.

There is just no way the Giants would have turned the keys over to Big Ben or Rivers the way they did with Eli. Warner likely would have played out the season and gotten them 2 or 3 more wins, resulting in the Giants never having a shot at Merriman.

I have to disagree with the bolded part. If a team takes a QB with the #4 pick of the draft, they are expecting him to be the franchise QB.I think they would have done the same thing no matter which QB they took.

 

[nygiants56]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year?  Merriman or was that their own pick?

They got Merriman with the Giants pick I wasn't thrilled with the trade when it happend (still not happy). My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

In reality it's still too early to tell but Rivers is going to have to be a complete bust for the Giants to look good in this trade.

yeah I wasn't too thrilled about losing last year's pick, either...tough call, but you can't pass up talent like that...

 

[56]

All of the talk about the Giants having blown it by missing out on Merriman with the pick they sent away in the Eli deal is flawed from the get go. If the Giants had stayed put and drafted Rivers or Big Ben, they very likely would have had a lower pick in the 1st round than the one the Chargers ultimately used to draft Merriman.

If it is Rivers or Big Ben on the roster, the Giants never would have gone away from Warner after week 8 of the 2004 season. But because the Giants were so sure that they had a franchise QB in Eli, they threw him into the fire and let him get his growing pains out of the way. Warner got banged up, and once they put Eli in they just decided to stick with him.

There is just no way the Giants would have turned the keys over to Big Ben or Rivers the way they did with Eli. Warner likely would have played out the season and gotten them 2 or 3 more wins, resulting in the Giants never having a shot at Merriman.

I have to disagree with the bolded part. If a team takes a QB with the #4 pick of the draft, they are expecting him to be the franchise QB.I think they would have done the same thing no matter which QB they took.

I can understand your point, but I strongly disagree. The Giants believed in Eli, and that is why they made the commitment to get him. It was that conviction that carried over when they gave him the keys half way through 04. They simply would not have done the same with Rivers or Big Ben.

 

[BigRed]

The Giants believed in Eli, and that is why they made the commitment to get him. It was that conviction that carried over when they gave him the keys half way through 04. They simply would not have done the same with Rivers or Big Ben.

Which IMO is moot point to the thread, really. SD, who was not exactly brilliant in drafting a QB that said he wouldn't play for them in the first place w/Rivers just sitting there (unless they had the deal worked out w/NY before-hand?), made out like a bandit by taking advantage of even stupider NY.

 

[cstu]

The Giants believed in Eli, and that is why they made the commitment to get him. It was that conviction that carried over when they gave him the keys half way through 04. They simply would not have done the same with Rivers or Big Ben.

Which IMO is moot point to the thread, really. SD, who was not exactly brilliant in drafting a QB that said he wouldn't play for them in the first place w/Rivers just sitting there (unless they had the deal worked out w/NY before-hand?), made out like a bandit by taking advantage of even stupider NY.

It was a brilliant move by the Chargers, knowing how much the Giants wanted him. I'll never understand why the Giants even mentioned interest in Manning and didn't just say they'd take the best available QB at #4. Had they done that there would have been no way for the Chargers to take him. The Giants screwed themselves.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year?  Merriman or was that their own pick?

They got Merriman with the Giants pick I wasn't thrilled with the trade when it happend (still not happy). My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

In reality it's still too early to tell but Rivers is going to have to be a complete bust for the Giants to look good in this trade.

If Rivers is a mediocre or less starter the trade could still be good for the Giants. The fact that Merriman did great does not mean the Giants would have taken him. However, the big issue here is that the Giants free'd up money and used it on Plaxico. the question is whether you would rather Manning and Plax for what they gave up. The one part of the equation that is important is that if you spend all that money on a starting QB he better be able to play otherwise your franchise is set back a few years. It is no coincidence that SD missed the playoffs because they have so much money invested in a player sitting the bench.

 

[Koya]

People really are a hoot.

Trades have NOTHING to do with "which team does better" - trades have to do with improving your team after the trade, as opposed to before it. I could care less how well San Diego does or does not do from this deal.

As a Giants fan, this trade got us a true franchise QB, one that may have had less risk than just about any QB in the last decade plus coming out of college, who is already beginning to fulfill on that promise.

I wish the best to SD and to Rivers (though I am not a big rivers fan - maybe I will be shown to be wrong), but their success has NOTHING to do with how well this trade grades for my Giants - and the opposite is true as well.

For the "well, the Giants could have had Merriman" crowd - GET A GRIP. The entire draft would have been different. The Giants would have gone non QB, or could have taken Big Ben. If that happens, who does Pitt take? How does that affect run through the course of the draft.

The fact is, three years ago my Giants were in neutral, sliding backward. They had no answer long term at QB and therefore nothing to build upon for the future.

Now, they have a stud young QB who is a top 3 young QB in the league (and behind Big Ben and Carson at this point, by a good margin), and have built a team around him. That has allowed the Giants to focus on a couple pieces on offense (McKenzie and Plax) while now strutting out an utterly revamped and dangerous defense.

I would say a great great deal for the Giants... and hopefully it can and will turn out as well or better for SD. Regardless, how well the Giants fare has nothing to do with SD's side of the trade, nor vice versa.

 

[Yenrub]

Who did San Diego get with the Giants' first round pick last year?  Merriman or was that their own pick?

They got Merriman with the Giants pick I wasn't thrilled with the trade when it happend (still not happy). My buddies thought I was going to pop a vein in my head when that trade went down.

In reality it's still too early to tell but Rivers is going to have to be a complete bust for the Giants to look good in this trade.

If Rivers is a mediocre or less starter the trade could still be good for the Giants. The fact that Merriman did great does not mean the Giants would have taken him. However, the big issue here is that the Giants free'd up money and used it on Plaxico. the question is whether you would rather Manning and Plax for what they gave up. The one part of the equation that is important is that if you spend all that money on a starting QB he better be able to play otherwise your franchise is set back a few years. It is no coincidence that SD missed the playoffs because they have so much money invested in a player sitting the bench.

What if (god forbid) Eli doesn't turn out any better than a mediocre QB?

 

[Liquid Tension]

"Sold" on Eli? Not entirely, but there's only 2 QBs taken in the last 5 drafts that I'd prefer to lead my franchise. (Ben and Palmer)

I am not sold on Eli, but I feel he is pretty good already. That being said, I wouldn't be sold on Roethlisberger either. his playoff performance has been awful IMO. The team around him is excellent. He won like Trent Dilfer won as far as I am concerned. This whole he is a winner bunk doesn't hold water with me. It is easy to be a winner when you stink and when. Pitt won despite his performance. Now you might think I am a Big Ben hater. Not the case, I actually think he still has a lot of room to improve, but let's be honest about his performance in the postseason.