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Eagles head coach Chip Kelly says NFL draft overrated (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Chip Kelly has had this stance for awhile so no one should link the recent suspension of his first NFL pick from last year, OT Lane Johnson, to this story. Also Kelly signed free agent QB Mark Sanchez who was a top pick and had a ton of hype/pressure on him and he crumbled.

I thinks its safe to say that most NFL fans love the draft but it the hype diminishes coaching/organization/ownership and other factors play roles in the success or failure of a team.

Their is a huge disconnect with the hype and build-up to the NFL draft and the return on the emotional investment. Their is an undeniable impact on a team's succss/failure due to the success/failure of their drafts but how much?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/29/kelly-elaborates-on-his-disdain-for-draft-hype/

Kelly elaborates on his disdain for draft hypePosted by Mike Florio on July 29, 2014, 8:21 AM EDT

Unlike most of his peers, Eagles coach Chip Kelly is willing to pull the curtain back on the draft process and admit that it’s more blind luck than science.

“You don’t know how it’s going to pan out,” Kelly said the morning after round one of the 2014 draft. “Just going through the analytics of it, 50 percent of first-round picks don’t make it. That’s through the history of time.”

More recently, Kelly bemoaned the hype around the draft, which is driven in large part by the ever-growing draft-expert machine. Apart from the fact that the draft experts never acknowledge that half the prospects bust and that we don’t know and won’t know who they are until they’re in the NFL, Kelly believes that, for some guys, the hype makes it harder to not be a bust.

“I think a lot of times the hype turns into really, really hard times for the individual who got picked, because there’s so many expectations of everyone building them up to be Superman because they had three months to write about them and talk about them,” Kelly told Peter King.

Kelly was asked to elaborate on his point during a Monday press conference, specifically as it relates to the hype surrounding second-round receiver Jordan Matthews. While Kelly said he’s not concerned about the talk regarding Matthews, who already has been compared to Terrell Owens, Kelly explained his position on draft hype generally.

“I think the draft is integral obviously with putting together your team but literally from the day the Super Bowl ends until the draft, at the ending of May, or the beginning of June or maybe push it to July at some point in time; that’s all everybody talks about,” Kelly said. “I felt the same way in college. You devote everything to the signing day.

Well, how many of those guys on the signing day are actually going to contribute? You may have one or two of your rookies that have an impact on your team but the rest of them it’s a part of having them develop. .

. .

“The fact that people would watch the Combine; there’s times at the Combine where I fall asleep,” Kelly added. “So I don’t know why people watch it on television. They are running 40‑yard dashes.”

Kelly then reiterated his comparison of the draft-hype dynamic to other industries.

“[Y]ou guys are in the newspaper business,” Kelly said. “If someone is a rookie coming into the newspaper thing, I don’t think you all just start applauding and saying, ‘Oh my God, the savior is here and our paper is safe because we just signed a kid out of Northwestern because the kid has really good prose.’ But in football it seems to be the biggest deal in the world and if a guy is not an All‑Pro in his first year but he was drafted in the first five picks, obviously he’s a bust.”

Kelly is right. But what he didn’t say is that the NFL ultimately stirs the draft-hype drink via a TV and online media machine that no one will pay attention to if it’s not generating content.



I’m not complaining. We cover the draft and the hype and everything that goes along with it. But we’re always honest about the fact that there’s a disconnect between the impression that the draft experts have it all figured out and the reality that no one does.

Still, if the NFL or the rest of the draft-expert industry would use slogans like “Tune in for the crapshoot” in the ads and promos, fans eventually would ask, “Why am I watching?”

“Because it’s on TV” would only work for so long.
The above is an elaboration on what he said the day prior, that the NFL draft HYPE is the worst thing about the NFL.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/28/chip-kelly-draft-hype-is-worst-thing-about-the-nfl/

Chip Kelly: Draft hype is worst thing about the NFLPosted by Josh Alper on July 28, 2014, 11:10 AM EDT

There’s no question that the NFL loves the draft and all they hype that goes along with it.

They’ve added days to the process, moved it to prime time and pushed it further back in the calendar to expand the amount of eyes taking in the move from college to the pros for the top prospects in the land. They spend plenty of time and money to promote the event each year and get even more free publicity from around the country as mock drafts and draftniks help whet everyone’s appetite for the selections, a hyperbolic process that inevitably leads to huge expectations for players a few years removed from high school.

Eagles coach Chip Kelly has gone through the process twice on the NFL side and he doesn’t share the league’s fondness for the event.

“What’s the worst thing about the league? I said the draft. I mean, the hype that goes into the draft is insane.

Totally insane,” Kelly said, via Peter King of TheMMQB.com. “The biggest thing for me is that everybody thinks whoever you drafted or whoever you signed is now gonna be a savior. They come in just like me and you come in as freshmen in high school or freshmen in college, or your first year on the job at Sports Illustrated — you’re not telling people what to do, you’re just trying to figure out what room to go to.”

“I think a lot of times the hype turns into really, really hard times for the individual who got picked, because there’s so many expectations of everyone building them up to be Superman because they had three months to write about them and talk about them. Then when they get picked, they’re a very, very good prospect, but there’s a learning curve when you go from any job out of college into a company. If you take a job at Wells Fargo when you get out of college, your first day of the job they don’t say, ‘

He’s our first-round draft pick, he’s the savior to the company!'”

Kelly went on to add the NFLPA’s Rookie Premiere event, post-draft grades and just about everything short of the food in the Eagles’ war room onto the list of things he doesn’t like about the draft process. Kelly’s either going to have to grin and bear it or find somewhere else to coach, though.

While the draft came into existence as a way for teams to add young players to their rosters, it has gradually become a television show devoted to promoting the league and a new crop of future stars. That creates an industry for people trying to make it seem like there’s a science, rather than educated guessing, to picking 21-year-olds who will become great 26-year-old football players and a message that the moves made over seven rounds in the spring can profoundly change the fortunes of a team in the fall.

With those conditions in place, hype is an unavoidable byproduct and it is one that isn’t going anywhere.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/09/chip-kelly-gets-pragmatic-about-the-draft/

Chip Kelly gets pragmatic about the draftPosted by Mike Florio on May 9, 2014, 10:41 PM EDT

I don’t know Eagles coach Chip Kelly very well, but I like him. I like him in part because he’s willing to explain things for what they are, not for what anyone wants us to think them to be.

When it comes to the draft, Kelly has pulled back the curtain on the notion, as perpetrated by the media draft machine, that there’s some sort of code that magically can be cracked. There’s not; it’s all a crapshoot and anyone who tries to tell the audience otherwise is dumb or lying.



You don’t know how it’s going to pan out,” Kelly said Friday when discussing his team’s first-round pick, linebacker Marcus Smith, via CSNPhilly.com. “Just going through the analytics of it, 50 percent of first-round picks don’t make it. That’s through the history of time.”

With all due respect to the efforts of draft experts (real or self-titled) to make the process into something that can be figured out, Kelly realizes that the process is inherently impossible to solve.



“When you draft someone in the sixth round and you say, ‘Hey, we got a steal,’ my first question is, why didn’t you take him in the fifth, then?” Kelly said. “If you’re so smart and you knew what you knew and you knew everything about the draft and you knew the guy was going to be an All-Pro — the people who brag about, ‘We got a sixth-round pick and he became an All-Pro player’ — then the first question is, well why didn’t you draft him earlier if you were so smart? A lot of times you don’t know.”

That logic can be used against plenty of teams, including the Eagles themselves. Last year, when quarterback Nick Foles developed into an unlikely star after being a third-round pick in 2012, G.M. Howie Roseman explained what the Eagles saw at him.

So why didn’t they take him in the first or second round then? If they’re so smart and they knew what they knew and they knew everything about the draft and they knew the guy was going to be an All-Pro, then the first question is, well why didn’t they draft him earlier if they were so smart?

In an industry where people have a clear motivation to make things so much more complicated than they really are, Kelly keeps it simple. It’s refreshing and it’s authentic and it’s honest.



No one knows what a college football player will do in the NFL until he’s in the NFL. And many factors influence the outcome, from the player’s ability to overcome physical and mental adversity to the player’s work ethic to the player’s character to the team’s coaching staff to the team’s resources for developing players to the other players on the team to the systems used.

But if enough people understood that, the draft wouldn’t be viewed as a mountain that fans can climb with the assistance of the Sherpas who are paid to talk incessantly about prospects for five months. And plenty of those guys would have to find work that actually carries with it accountability for being flat-out wrong.
Chip Kelly adds more creedence than others since he has consistently bashed the hype and although his drafts haven't been stellar or horrible he took a team with a bad record and turned it around in one year without a huge influx of rookies taken in the draft so their are other factors.

It would be fantastic to accumulate the hard numbers of top picks, who makes it or of the busts.

That data have to show over time of two or three years of drafts to connect how drafted prospects translate into team sucess and on the opposite coin what if the players don't pan out, how does that add to failure if a team drafts busts?

Basically Chip Kelly's statements have a bottom line. How valueable is the draft to determing team success?

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).

 
Meh. I think most reasonable people realize the draft is somewhat a crapshoot, but ur all pros and HOF'ers come out of the first 2-3 rounds. Until a player proves to be a bust, it brings hope to any team to get player X or Y in round 1 or 2...

 
Chip, Mr. Goodell is on line 1.
People shouldn't be beggars for the truth and Chip brings it so if Rodger Goddell and many media outlets are carrion feasting off the dead carcasses of hyperboyle then don't kill the messenger, Chip Kelly in this instance.

I think the question for the fantasy community translates pretty well.

How much does the NFL draft, i.e. FANTASY DRAFT(s), go to determining team success?

Kelly's stance has a valid/transferable fantasy point so if someone wants to critque or suspision Kelly then to place his statements in context we have to see the raw data of not only one team or one draft but if it can be pointed out how a string of drafts in quick succession lead to success/failure of a team.

I'm sure people here can share how their fantasy teams rookie drafts played a big role in their team's success/failure but the key difference with fantasy teams VS. NFL teams is their are typically less than 32 fantasy teams so the role of rookies in fantasy leagues is much-much greater.

 
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Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
Wtf? Are you joking?

 
Chip, Mr. Goodell is on line 1.
People shouldn't be beggars for the truth and Chip brings it so if Rodger Goddell and many media outlets are carrion feasting off the dead carcasses of hyperboyle then don't kill the messenger, Chip Kelly in this instance.I think the question for the fantasy community translates pretty well.

How much does the NFL draft, i.e. FANTASY DRAFT(s), go to determining team success?

Kelly's stance has a valid/transferable fantasy point so if someone wants to critque or suspision Kelly then to place his statements in context we have to see the raw data of not only one team or one draft but if it can be pointed out how a string of drafts in quick succession lead to success/failure of a team.

I'm sure people here can share how their fantasy teams rookie drafts played a big role in their team's success/failure but the key difference with fantasy teams VS. NFL teams is their are typically less than 32 fantasy teams so the role of rookies in fantasy leagues is much-much greater.
If you're talking dynasty, your draft probably has about the same effect as the NFL draft. Some guys work and some don't. It takes awhile to find out too.

For redraft though, the draft is very important. Berry just did a study and it showed that 30% of a teams points every week were scored by the first 2 picks in their draft. Bust on those and it most likely will be a long year.

 
I think CK makes an excellent point about draft position not being the end all be all to a players relative talent or their future success.

I remember when the Vikings traded away all their draft picks for 3 years to the Dallas Cowboys for Hershel Walker.

The Vikings had no draft resources for 3 consecutive seasons but they had Chris Carter and John Randle both fall in their lap. Other opportunities opened up for players to make the team besides being drafted.

This is kind of where I started to realize that the talent level between a UDFA and a first round pick is not really as huge as the hype machine might make it out to be. Coaches and team systems can find players who fit what they are trying to do.

The Dallas Cowboys did build their dynasty in part because of the boons of this trade. So that would perhaps be the an argument for the value of players who will be drafted and not be otherwise available, and using that as the foundation for building long term success.

To be honest I do not think that deal ever would have happened if not for the huge amount of money and hassles with hold outs involving rookies at that time. I think Mike Lynn was happy to avoid that hassle and financial commitment on rookie players, instead looking to use those resources on free agents.

With the way the CBA has structured rookie contracts now, I think the picks are much more valuable than they were before because of how cheap those contracts are. The elite can't miss type prospects will almost always be identified by the scouting process and these players will not go undrafted. So for that corner of the market/available talent, each team should be trying to maximize the value they get out of that portion of their roster management. Not that it is the only form of roster management a team has available to them.

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
I don't think he's saying the draft is worthless, only that expectations are too high on guys coming in and that a high draft position can be a negative for some.

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
I don't think he's saying the draft is worthless, only that expectations are too high on guys coming in and that a high draft position can be a negative for some.
Yup I'd agree with that. I think we all see someone get drafted in the 1st round and if they aren't a superstat by year 2, we say they're a bust.

Also thought it was great about his comments on the combine. How he can barely watch it so how do people watch it on TV? lol

 
Chip, Mr. Goodell is on line 1.
People shouldn't be beggars for the truth and Chip brings it so if Rodger Goddell and many media outlets are carrion feasting off the dead carcasses of hyperboyle then don't kill the messenger, Chip Kelly in this instance.I think the question for the fantasy community translates pretty well.

How much does the NFL draft, i.e. FANTASY DRAFT(s), go to determining team success?

Kelly's stance has a valid/transferable fantasy point so if someone wants to critque or suspision Kelly then to place his statements in context we have to see the raw data of not only one team or one draft but if it can be pointed out how a string of drafts in quick succession lead to success/failure of a team.

I'm sure people here can share how their fantasy teams rookie drafts played a big role in their team's success/failure but the key difference with fantasy teams VS. NFL teams is their are typically less than 32 fantasy teams so the role of rookies in fantasy leagues is much-much greater.
If you're talking dynasty, your draft probably has about the same effect as the NFL draft. Some guys work and some don't. It takes awhile to find out too.

For redraft though, the draft is very important. Berry just did a study and it showed that 30% of a teams points every week were scored by the first 2 picks in their draft. Bust on those and it most likely will be a long year.
I think rookies mean a heck of a lot more in dynasty leagues because the entire basis of a dynasty league is to strategize looking forward where owners want that influx of young talent.

That is the fun of a dynasty league. Not instant gratification of a redraft but bulding your team for the future.

 
Chip, Mr. Goodell is on line 1.
People shouldn't be beggars for the truth and Chip brings it so if Rodger Goddell and many media outlets are carrion feasting off the dead carcasses of hyperboyle then don't kill the messenger, Chip Kelly in this instance.I think the question for the fantasy community translates pretty well.

How much does the NFL draft, i.e. FANTASY DRAFT(s), go to determining team success?

Kelly's stance has a valid/transferable fantasy point so if someone wants to critque or suspision Kelly then to place his statements in context we have to see the raw data of not only one team or one draft but if it can be pointed out how a string of drafts in quick succession lead to success/failure of a team.

I'm sure people here can share how their fantasy teams rookie drafts played a big role in their team's success/failure but the key difference with fantasy teams VS. NFL teams is their are typically less than 32 fantasy teams so the role of rookies in fantasy leagues is much-much greater.
If you're talking dynasty, your draft probably has about the same effect as the NFL draft. Some guys work and some don't. It takes awhile to find out too.For redraft though, the draft is very important. Berry just did a study and it showed that 30% of a teams points every week were scored by the first 2 picks in their draft. Bust on those and it most likely will be a long year.
I think rookies mean a heck of a lot more in dynasty leagues because the entire basis of a dynasty league is to strategize looking forward where owners want that influx of young talent.That is the fun of a dynasty league. Not instant gratification of a redraft but bulding your team for the future.
But much like the NFL draft, rookies dont always work out and your established players you aquired via trades and waiver wire play just as much a role as the rookies do.

 
But much like the NFL draft, rookies dont always work out and your established players you aquired via trades and waiver wire play just as much a role as the rookies do.
Same can be said for redraft but my point of rookies having more influence in fantasy where their are typically only 12 teams is intuitive.

In the NFL draft with 32 teams the low number of talent entering the league would dilute the talent pool. Every team has pro personnel staffs pouring over tape, reading medical reports, doing research on top prospects, a whole gamet of people all doing similiar jobs on every NFL team so they typically hold the exact same information. Its an assumption but a fair assumption that teams typically would have the exact same information so the art/skill of each team would be deciphering the information in making draft decisions.

In a fantasy league with only 12 teams where if the talent entering the league only has a handful of top players who would hold fantasy value then being able to identify those players is the key and we know as fantasy owners/players that all owners do not have the same information. The key difference in fantasy is how hard each owner/fantasy player works to get information. If team owners all are on the ball and hold the same information then the success rates would mirror the NFL success rates but I think its fair to say that fantasy league owners typically do not hold the same information so a good fantasy owner who does their research can gain a significant fantasy advantage but we are at the mercy of the information coming to us about rookies from our unique sources of information.

 
“The fact that people would watch the Combine; there’s times at the Combine where I fall asleep,” Kelly added. “So I don’t know why people watch it on television. They are running 40‑yard dashes.”
:lmao: best line -- take note, fantasy nerds

I'm in no position to nitpick a chip kelly, and while there might be an underlying truth there, he could probably reign in his own hyperbole a bit.

first of all, I could make the case that if I look at all nfl records historically that teams only win 50% of the time, so it's all a crapshoot and coaching is overrated -- but that would be kind of ridiculous.

also, if he has such a problem with the nfl hype machine, maybe he should find another line of work rather than draw his paycheck from it.

there are plenty of people who have jobs to do in the media as well as whatever the nfl uses for a publicity dept, but I guess all those people are worthless and only coaching has merit.

maybe he should go coach down in some local park league if he doesn't like publicity.

 
“The fact that people would watch the Combine; there’s times at the Combine where I fall asleep,” Kelly added. “So I don’t know why people watch it on television. They are running 40‑yard dashes.”
:lmao: best line -- take note, fantasy nerds
:goodposting:

There's some info that can be derived from this event, but I am continually amazed how much some people look forward to this and how much stock they put in the numbers that come out of it.

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
woah. They've had HORRIBLE drafts! They DO have a great Oline, but Lane Johnson was a Chip selection, Kelce was a 6th round crap shoot that hit, Herremans was drafted in 2005, Mathis was taken by the Panthers and the Birds best Olineman, Peters, was a FA acquisition from the Bills (undrafted BTW). Comb through Andy's drafts, especially early rounders: 2011: Danny godamned Watkins and Jaiquawn Jarret!?! This was also the year that they took Casey Mathews and a kicker in the 4th round. 2010: Brandon Graham over Earl Thomas!! when the entire world knew Thomas was the pick!?! agh!!! Te'o!?! bleh!! They had 7 picks in the first 4 rounds and I think Graham and Nate Allen are the only ones still playing professionally.

Also, I defy you to look at our defense when Chip took over and say the words "team full of talent".

sorry for the rant.

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
woah. They've had HORRIBLE drafts! They DO have a great Oline, but Lane Johnson was a Chip selection, Kelce was a 6th round crap shoot that hit, Herremans was drafted in 2005, Mathis was taken by the Panthers and the Birds best Olineman, Peters, was a FA acquisition from the Bills (undrafted BTW). Comb through Andy's drafts, especially early rounders: 2011: Danny godamned Watkins and Jaiquawn Jarret!?! This was also the year that they took Casey Mathews and a kicker in the 4th round. 2010: Brandon Graham over Earl Thomas!! when the entire world knew Thomas was the pick!?! agh!!! Te'o!?! bleh!! They had 7 picks in the first 4 rounds and I think Graham and Nate Allen are the only ones still playing professionally.

Also, I defy you to look at our defense when Chip took over and say the words "team full of talent".

sorry for the rant.
Yeah not to hijack, but I've made the case elsewhere that Rhodes left Reid more talent than Reid left for Kelly. Reid left the cupboard kinda bare.

 
Seems like an ironic statement from a guy who inherited a team full of talent because of good drafting. They have arguably the best o-line/RB combination in the league, and drafted an above average QB in the 3rd round (rare).
woah. They've had HORRIBLE drafts! They DO have a great Oline, but Lane Johnson was a Chip selection, Kelce was a 6th round crap shoot that hit, Herremans was drafted in 2005, Mathis was taken by the Panthers and the Birds best Olineman, Peters, was a FA acquisition from the Bills (undrafted BTW). Comb through Andy's drafts, especially early rounders: 2011: Danny godamned Watkins and Jaiquawn Jarret!?! This was also the year that they took Casey Mathews and a kicker in the 4th round. 2010: Brandon Graham over Earl Thomas!! when the entire world knew Thomas was the pick!?! agh!!! Te'o!?! bleh!! They had 7 picks in the first 4 rounds and I think Graham and Nate Allen are the only ones still playing professionally.

Also, I defy you to look at our defense when Chip took over and say the words "team full of talent".

sorry for the rant.
Yeah not to hijack, but I've made the case elsewhere that Rhodes left Reid more talent than Reid left for Kelly. Reid left the cupboard kinda bare.
no question. having your decade + long franchise QB available to you with your first pick helped as well. That was probably Andy's best draft moment.

 

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