Early Predictions for next year top 20 RBs (1 Viewer)

[Crazy8s]

Player (PPR)

1 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD

2 Johnson, Larry RB KC

3 Jackson, Steven RB STL

4 Jones, Kevin RB DET

5 Portis, Clinton RB WAS

6 Addai, Joseph RB IND

7 Green, Ahman RB GB

8 Alexander, Shawn, RB SEA

9 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

10 Parker, Willie RB PIT

11 Gore, Frank RB SF

12 Davis, Dominic RB HOU

13 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

14 Taylor, Chester RB MIN

15 Bell, Tatum RB DEN

16 Maroney, Laurence RB NE

17 Barber, Marion RB DAL

18 James, Edgerrin RB ARI

19 McGahee, Willis RB BUF

20 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

22 Williams, Cadillac RB TB

22 McAllister, Deuce RB NO

Yes, NO BUSH. (I forgot Alexander in initial post)

 

[dundeeslugger]

So you think JJones loses his job?

 

[Crazy8s]

So you think JJones loses his job?

Yes....And maybe this year. (Not totally, but you'll see more and more of him this year)

 

[TheAristocrat]

How can Davis be at 12? His injuries alone drop him off my radar.

 

[redman]

How can Davis be at 12? His injuries alone drop him off my radar.

It's not even clear that he'll ever play football again.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Player (PPR)

1 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD

2 Johnson, Larry RB KC

3 Jackson, Steven RB STL

4 Jones, Kevin RB DET

5 Portis, Clinton RB WAS

6 Addai, Joseph RB IND

7 Green, Ahman RB GB

8 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

9 Parker, Willie RB PIT

10 Gore, Frank RB SF

11 Davis, Dominic RB HOU

12 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

13 Taylor, Chester RB MIN

14 Bell, Tatum RB DEN

15 Maroney, Laurence RB NE

16 Barber, Marion RB DAL

17 James, Edgerrin RB ARI

18 McGahee, Willis RB BUF

19 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

20 Williams, Cadillac RB TB

21 McAllister, Deuce RB NO

Yes, NO BUSH.

Cool topic. Dom Davis, eh? Could happen I suppose. At first glance Ahman Green is too high, as is Tatum Bell. Are you of the opinion that Marber is the starting RB in Dallas next year? I'll give it a shot -

1. LT

2. LJ

3. Westbrook

4. SJax

5. Gore

6. KJ

7. R. Brown

8. Addai

9. Portis

10. Bush

11. Parker

12. MJD

13. SA

14. Edge

15. C. Taylor

16. R. Johnson

17. Maroney

18. McGahee

19. A. Green

20. DeAngelo

21. Tatum

22. Caddy

23. Duece

24. Dunn

 

[phillzphan]

No Chicago RBs either?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

No Chicago RBs either?

Jones is interesting. If he stays, I'd put him around 15. If he goes, he could be slotted anywhere from top 10 down to 25 or so depending on where. I tend to think that he'll be traded. If he does, I do not expect much from Benson, especially keeping in mind that we're talking ppr here.

 

[Loopdog]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Are these wild guesses or actual rankings??

 

[redman]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Really? For what team? Only Addai figures to finish in the top 20 this year in a first-round class including Maroney, Williams and Bush. Ironically, of those four guys Addai was the least well-regarded going into the draft.

Last year, in a first-round class including Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams, only Caddy finished (barely) in the top 20.

In 2004, in a first round class including Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones, none of those guys finished in the top 20 (and only one finished in the top 30).

In 2003 neither first-rounder Willis McGahee nor LJ finished in the top 20 (McGahee was of course injured, and managed to finish 14th the following year).

To a rookie RB, situation is everything, and there's little basis to believe that any rookie RB has a liklihood of finishing among the top 20 RB's before he's drafted, much less before you even know what the draft order will be.

 

[Thumper]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Really? For what team? Only Addai figures to finish in the top 20 this year in a first-round class including Maroney, Williams and Bush. Ironically, of those four guys Addai was the least well-regarded going into the draft.

Last year, in a first-round class including Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams, only Caddy finished (barely) in the top 20.

In 2004, in a first round class including Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones, none of those guys finished in the top 20 (and only one finished in the top 30).

In 2003 neither first-rounder Willis McGahee nor LJ finished in the top 20 (McGahee was of course injured, and managed to finish 14th the following year).

To a rookie RB, situation is everything, and there's little basis to believe that any rookie RB has a liklihood of finishing among the top 20 RB's before he's drafted, much less before you even know what the draft order will be.

No love for SA?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Are these wild guesses or actual rankings??

Is there really that much of a difference?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Really? For what team? Only Addai figures to finish in the top 20 this year in a first-round class including Maroney, Williams and Bush. Ironically, of those four guys Addai was the least well-regarded going into the draft.

Last year, in a first-round class including Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams, only Caddy finished (barely) in the top 20.

In 2004, in a first round class including Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones, none of those guys finished in the top 20 (and only one finished in the top 30).

In 2003 neither first-rounder Willis McGahee nor LJ finished in the top 20 (McGahee was of course injured, and managed to finish 14th the following year).

To a rookie RB, situation is everything, and there's little basis to believe that any rookie RB has a liklihood of finishing among the top 20 RB's before he's drafted, much less before you even know what the draft order will be.

No love for SA?

Shaun Alexander? He didn't do well his rookie year.

 

[suchislife]

Player (PPR)

1 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD

2 Johnson, Larry RB KC

3 Jackson, Steven RB STL

4 Jones, Kevin RB DET

5 Portis, Clinton RB WAS

6 Addai, Joseph RB IND

7 Green, Ahman RB GB

8 Alexander, Shawn, RB SEA

9 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

10 Parker, Willie RB PIT

11 Gore, Frank RB SF

12 Davis, Dominic RB HOU

13 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

14 Taylor, Chester RB MIN

15 Bell, Tatum RB DEN

16 Maroney, Laurence RB NE

17 Barber, Marion RB DAL

18 James, Edgerrin RB ARI

19 McGahee, Willis RB BUF

20 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

22 Williams, Cadillac RB TB

22 McAllister, Deuce RB NO

Yes, NO BUSH. (I forgot Alexander in initial post)

I would rank Westbrook higher than AGreen, Addai & SJackson...especially in a PPR league. Edgerrin's days as a top 20 RB may be just about over. I would add one of the Jax RBs (whoever you think the starter is in '07).

 

[redman]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Really? For what team? Only Addai figures to finish in the top 20 this year in a first-round class including Maroney, Williams and Bush. Ironically, of those four guys Addai was the least well-regarded going into the draft.

Last year, in a first-round class including Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams, only Caddy finished (barely) in the top 20.

In 2004, in a first round class including Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones, none of those guys finished in the top 20 (and only one finished in the top 30).

In 2003 neither first-rounder Willis McGahee nor LJ finished in the top 20 (McGahee was of course injured, and managed to finish 14th the following year).

To a rookie RB, situation is everything, and there's little basis to believe that any rookie RB has a liklihood of finishing among the top 20 RB's before he's drafted, much less before you even know what the draft order will be.

No love for SA?

 

[Loopdog]

if you believe that Peterson will be a split carries type back, then thats fine. I'm thinking he'll be more of an LT type back, and the team that drafts him (Green Bay, Houston) will allow him to carry the load.

Personal opinion. I think he finishes Top 20 no doubt next year, he is a really special back

 

[Rev]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Doesn't he have some serious healing to do? He's a long way from being a year away from being a top 20 RB in the NFL.

 

[JayMan]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Really? For what team? To a rookie RB, situation is everything, and there's little basis to believe that any rookie RB has a liklihood of finishing among the top 20 RB's before he's drafted, much less before you even know what the draft order will be.

I agree and disagree at the same time...Saying that Adrian Peterson will be a top20 RB next year is a bold statement to say the least... as you mentioned - situation is everything for a rookie RB... and not knowing the situation beforehand - one can't really say that Peterson will be a top20 RB...

But to say that there is little basis to believe that any rookie will be a top20 back next year is bold also... since there has been 17 occurences in the last 10 years (assuming Addai does it - it will be 18 in 11)... but to say that it will be Peterson and not Lynch or MBush or Irons or else is bolder...

Year / rushing stats / receiving stats / rank (only last 10 years)

Williams, Cadillac---2005-290-1178--6-20--81-0-19Davis, Domanick------2003-238-1031--8-47-351-0-13Portis, Clinton------2002-273-1508-15-33-364-2--4Tomlinson, LaDainian-2001-339-1236-10-59-367-0--7Rhodes, Dominic------2001-233-1104--9-34-224-0-11Thomas, Anthony------2001-278-1183--7-22-178-0-13Anderson, Mike-------2000-297-1487-15-23-169-0--4Lewis, Jamal---------2000-309-1364--6-27-296-0-16James, Edgerrin------1999-369-1553-13-62-586-4--1Gary, Olandis--------1999-276-1159--7-21-159-0-14Taylor, Fred---------1998-264-1223-14-44-421-3--4Edwards, Robert------1998-291-1115--9-35-331-3--8Dillon, Corey--------1997-233-1129-10-27-259-0--8Dunn, Warrick--------1997-224--978--4-39-462-3-12Smith, Antowain------1997-194--840--8-28-177-0-19George, Eddie--------1996-335-1368--8-23-182-0--8Abdul-Jabbar, Karim--1996-307-1116-11-23-139-0--9

 

[redman]

if you believe that Peterson will be a split carries type back, then thats fine. I'm thinking he'll be more of an LT type back, and the team that drafts him (Green Bay, Houston) will allow him to carry the load. Personal opinion. I think he finishes Top 20 no doubt next year, he is a really special back

If Ahman Green is back next year with Green Bay, Peterson splits carries. End of story. If he's in Houston, then he's playing for Gary Kubiak of the Denver Kubiaks who isn't afraid to switch up his RB's (and who BTW demands that his RB's pass block well too, something that rookies tend to struggle with). I think Peterson will be a good RB too, but to predict a top 20 finish next year is specious. We're not even totally confident that he'll end up in one of those two places.

 

[wannabee]

adrian peterson will be a top 20 back next year, without a doubt

Doesn't he have some serious healing to do? He's a long way from being a year away from being a top 20 RB in the NFL.

Peterson is saying he will play next week against Oklahoma State. He has said he could have played this week, but the Sooners played Baylor so they gave it an extra week.

 

[jerseys finest]

if you believe that Peterson will be a split carries type back, then thats fine. I'm thinking he'll be more of an LT type back, and the team that drafts him (Green Bay, Houston) will allow him to carry the load.

Personal opinion. I think he finishes Top 20 no doubt next year, he is a really special back

that seems to be the statement that alot of people made about reggie bush.. I agree that he looks to be a special back and if he ends up in the right situation right away, he could be great(i think he has a better chance to be a great NFL back then bush over their careers). Problem is, from right now, none of the teams that look to have a top 5 pick (i doubt he falls out of the top 5) are not in dire need of an instant starting RB. I'd think he would be a split carry back at best his first year to ease him into the NFL game and to make sure his injury wont be a lingering one.that is just my opinion of course.

 

[qimqam]

Why would we want the opinion of a guy who gets knocked out of the playoffs halfway through the season?

 

[Wreckincrew]

If Dillon leaves NE (not sure of his contract status, I think it is an option year for NE) then Maroney has the potential to at least be a top 10 back. I think he has been the best RB out of this class so far. Just my .

 

[Sea Bass]

Player (PPR)

1 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD

2 Johnson, Larry RB KC

3 Jackson, Steven RB STL

4 Jones, Kevin RB DET

5 Portis, Clinton RB WAS

6 Addai, Joseph RB IND

7 Green, Ahman RB GB

8 Alexander, Shawn, RB SEA

9 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

10 Parker, Willie RB PIT

11 Gore, Frank RB SF

12 Davis, Dominic RB HOU

13 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

14 Taylor, Chester RB MIN

15 Bell, Tatum RB DEN

16 Maroney, Laurence RB NE

17 Barber, Marion RB DAL

18 James, Edgerrin RB ARI

19 McGahee, Willis RB BUF

20 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

22 Williams, Cadillac RB TB

22 McAllister, Deuce RB NO

Yes, NO BUSH. (I forgot Alexander in initial post)

No wonder you are out of the playoffs (j/k). Thanks for your opinions.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

Ronnie Brown is an interesting case. If they improve the offensive line further, he should easily be top 10; hell, he's top 10 in my league right now. On the other hand, though, isn't there a chance Ricky could come back next year? I think 13 is a fine ranking when taking everything together, but we'll need to see how things play out in the near future to get a real read on him.

Chester Taylor...he's been good this year only because he gets a ton of touches and has a ridiculously easy schedule, and even then he doesn't get into the end zone much. I think next year he'll take a hit just from schedule alone, and could possibly fall further if they sign WR help or something.

As SSOG is always fond of pointing out, Denver RBs are overrated when looking a year or more ahead. You just don't know if Skeletor's going to draft someone or what, and how the situation will play out.

Strongly disagree with Kevin Jones in top 5 - I see him as a first-round bust candidate next year. Again, NFC North teams this year all have among the easiest schedules ever, and according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats (which adjust for schedule) he is one of the worst starting RBs in the league (just like last year). Note that Chester Taylor doesn't rate very far above him, either, which is part of why I am suspicious of both for the future.

Ahman Green isn't top 10 either. Same NFC North schedule issues, plus he's a proven injury risk and you don't know if they'll move toward a committee.

Alexander should be top 5, I would imagine. This is his first bad year ever, and the offensive line (the main reason for his struggles early on) has been playing better in recent weeks. And being in the NFC West, he'll always have a nice and soft schedule to beat up on.

Westbrook seems right...he'll never be anything more than a late 1st-rounder IMO, due to his constant injuries.

Addai at #6 is a ballsy call, but I like it. Indy's system is fantasy gold for everybody involved.

Why so low on Rudi? I know it's PPR, but even still...AFC North is the opposite of NFC North in terms of schedule strength; those defense-adjusted stats I mentioned earlier rank Rudi as the #3 RB in the league because of this. Yes, I know AFC North is always tough, but not THIS tough; just look at Rudi's stats prior to this year. This team's also had some o-line injuries that impacted the running game more than the passing game. I just don't buy into him at #20.

Others have already commented on Dom Davis, no need to say anything more.

FWP won't be top 10 next year, IMO. He is not someone who can pound the ball up the middle or run out the clock, and the team clearly wants and needs someone like that. As such, I see them acquiring a bigger back next year, and that back taking the goal-line work.

Maroney at #16 is kinda like Ronnie #13...a pretty good ranking when considering all the possibilities, but not very meaningful since we'll need to wait and see what happens. If they phase out Dillon he's top 10 most likely, but I don't know the contract situation there etc. Pats homers, wanna chime in here?

Marion Barber's spot seems about right if he gets the starting job. That's another wait-and-see situation...

Edge in Arizona = not top 20. The organization just doesn't know that the offensive line exists, and until they fix that problem no RB will have much value there.

I like Deuce better than McGahee or Caddy, to be honest. Like Edge, he's become a more consistent runner after the ACL injury, and he's better in short-yardage as a result. Bush has been putrid when actually rushing the ball, and at the very least I think Deuce will still be getting the TDs + decent carries next year.

Finally, here's one great candidate nobody's mentioned: Brandon Jacobs. He has been one of the most consistent and effective runners in the league this year, he's obviously money at the goal line, and if this season is any indication he should be able to handle the starting job. Of course, there's a chance that they may draft/sign somebody to split carries...but if they don't he will be a beast.

Interesting thread, thanks for starting this discussion!

-Josh

 

[Ozymandias]

Ronnie Brown is an interesting case. If they improve the offensive line further, he should easily be top 10; hell, he's top 10 in my league right now. On the other hand, though, isn't there a chance Ricky could come back next year? I think 13 is a fine ranking when taking everything together, but we'll need to see how things play out in the near future to get a real read on him.

Chester Taylor...he's been good this year only because he gets a ton of touches and has a ridiculously easy schedule, and even then he doesn't get into the end zone much. I think next year he'll take a hit just from schedule alone, and could possibly fall further if they sign WR help or something.

As SSOG is always fond of pointing out, Denver RBs are overrated when looking a year or more ahead. You just don't know if Skeletor's going to draft someone or what, and how the situation will play out.

Strongly disagree with Kevin Jones in top 5 - I see him as a first-round bust candidate next year. Again, NFC North teams this year all have among the easiest schedules ever, and according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats (which adjust for schedule) he is one of the worst starting RBs in the league (just like last year). Note that Chester Taylor doesn't rate very far above him, either, which is part of why I am suspicious of both for the future.

Ahman Green isn't top 10 either. Same NFC North schedule issues, plus he's a proven injury risk and you don't know if they'll move toward a committee.

Alexander should be top 5, I would imagine. This is his first bad year ever, and the offensive line (the main reason for his struggles early on) has been playing better in recent weeks. And being in the NFC West, he'll always have a nice and soft schedule to beat up on.

Westbrook seems right...he'll never be anything more than a late 1st-rounder IMO, due to his constant injuries.

Addai at #6 is a ballsy call, but I like it. Indy's system is fantasy gold for everybody involved.

Why so low on Rudi? I know it's PPR, but even still...AFC North is the opposite of NFC North in terms of schedule strength; those defense-adjusted stats I mentioned earlier rank Rudi as the #3 RB in the league because of this. Yes, I know AFC North is always tough, but not THIS tough; just look at Rudi's stats prior to this year. This team's also had some o-line injuries that impacted the running game more than the passing game. I just don't buy into him at #20.

Others have already commented on Dom Davis, no need to say anything more.

FWP won't be top 10 next year, IMO. He is not someone who can pound the ball up the middle or run out the clock, and the team clearly wants and needs someone like that. As such, I see them acquiring a bigger back next year, and that back taking the goal-line work.

Maroney at #16 is kinda like Ronnie #13...a pretty good ranking when considering all the possibilities, but not very meaningful since we'll need to wait and see what happens. If they phase out Dillon he's top 10 most likely, but I don't know the contract situation there etc. Pats homers, wanna chime in here?

Marion Barber's spot seems about right if he gets the starting job. That's another wait-and-see situation...

Edge in Arizona = not top 20. The organization just doesn't know that the offensive line exists, and until they fix that problem no RB will have much value there.

I like Deuce better than McGahee or Caddy, to be honest. Like Edge, he's become a more consistent runner after the ACL injury, and he's better in short-yardage as a result. Bush has been putrid when actually rushing the ball, and at the very least I think Deuce will still be getting the TDs + decent carries next year.

Finally, here's one great candidate nobody's mentioned: Brandon Jacobs. He has been one of the most consistent and effective runners in the league this year, he's obviously money at the goal line, and if this season is any indication he should be able to handle the starting job. Of course, there's a chance that they may draft/sign somebody to split carries...but if they don't he will be a beast.

Interesting thread, thanks for starting this discussion!

-Josh

EXACTLY! I was just reading the threads and saying to myself, "Nobody's mentioned Jacobs." If Tiki retires, (which seems fairly certain), Jacobs should be money.

 

[Biabreakable]

Chester Taylor...he's been good this year only because he gets a ton of touches and has a ridiculously easy schedule, and even then he doesn't get into the end zone much. I think next year he'll take a hit just from schedule alone, and could possibly fall further if they sign WR help or something.

Hi Josh,I am not sure where your getting the idea that Chester Taylor has had a easy scedule against defenses that are poor against the run, fantasy outsiders?

The NFC North is playing the AFC East and NFC East this year and the Vikings having a winning record last year did not get the more favorable matchups.

Chester Taylors scedule 2006:

Sep 11 @Washington Won 19-16

Sep 17 Carolina Won 16-13

Sep 24 Chicago Lost 16-19

Oct 1 @Buffalo Lost 12-17

Oct 8 Detroit Won 26-17

Week 6 BYE

Oct 22 @Seattle Won 31-13

Oct 30 New England Lost 7-31

Nov 5 @San Francisco Lost 3-9

Nov 12 Green Bay Lost 17-23

Nov 19 @Miami 1:00pm 155 153

Nov 26 Arizona 1:00pm 158 147

Dec 3 @Chicago 1:00pm 146 123

Dec 10 @Detroit 1:00pm 118 118

Dec 17 N.Y. Jets 1:00pm 146 123

Dec 21 @Green Bay 8:00pm 125 123

Dec 31 St. Louis 1:00pm

I highlighted the teams who are in the bottom 10 in run defense in 2006. The only team on Taylors schedule that he has played against yet so far is Detroit. Detroit is a much better run defense when they have Shaun Rogers in the lineup, which they did still when Taylor played them. Rogers was later suspended and that has hurt thier run defense.

New England has the 3rd best defense against the run right now. Green Bay is 7th. Chicago is 11th against the run but they are ranked as the best defense overall in the league.

So I am not seeing how you can make the statement that Taylor has had a ridiculously easy schedule?

Here are the top 16 run defenses right now:

Minnesota

Baltimore

New England

Dallas

Denver

San Diego

Green Bay 2 games

New York (N)

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

Chicago 2 games

Miami

Seattle

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Carolina

So 50% or 8 of the 16 games Taylor plays this year will be against the top half of the leagues run defenses.

I am sure there are a few teams with more difficult run schedules. But I do not see how in any way shape or form that his schedule is easy.

Strongly disagree with Kevin Jones in top 5 - I see him as a first-round bust candidate next year. Again, NFC North teams this year all have among the easiest schedules ever, and according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats (which adjust for schedule) he is one of the worst starting RBs in the league (just like last year). Note that Chester Taylor doesn't rate very far above him, either, which is part of why I am suspicious of both for the future.

Again I am not sure where your arriving at this conclushion. Detroit is the only poor run defense in the NFC North. Jones has the play against the number 1 Vikings, number 7 Packers and 11th (but1st overall) Bears 6 games.Jones also plays against:

Seattle

Atlanta

Miami

New England

Dallas

So that is 11 games out of 16 that Jones plays against above average defenses against the run.

Ahman Green isn't top 10 either. Same NFC North schedule issues, plus he's a proven injury risk and you don't know if they'll move toward a committee.

Jayman,

Thanks for bringing the facts about successful rookie Rbs entering the top 20 and sometimes the top 10 right away.

However I do think we have been seeing this trend of rookie Rb making a huge impact right away decrease over the past 4 years.

Prior to 1993 we had rookie Rbs Emmitt Smith Barry Sanders Thurman Thomas and Rodney Hampton who made immediate impact and are amoung some of the best Rbs ever.

1993 1 in the top 10 Jerome Bettis 2nd overall

1994 1 in the top 10 Marshall Faulk 4th overall (Erict Rhett was 14th)

1995 1 in the top 10 Curtis Martin 2nd overall (Terrell Davis was 12th)

1996 1 in the top 10

1997 1 in the top 10

1998 2 top 10 Rbs that were rookies.

1999 Edge as a rookie was the number 1 Rb

2000 1 in the top 10

2001 1 in the top 10

2002 1 in the top 10

There hasn't been a top 10 rookie Rb since Portis.

What has happened to this consistent trend of rookie Rb plug and play success?

Has the game gotten too complex for a team to be able to extensivly use a rookie Rb now?

This trend coincides with teams generaly not placing as high a value on Rbs as they have in years past even though we did see 3 drafted in the 1st 5 picks in 2005, for the most part teams have been more willing to use RBBC approach with role players and cheaper free agents.

Kevin Jones and Carnell Williams are the only 2 recent rookie Rbs who have gotten the majority of the work right away and both have had thier struggles.

All things that need to be considered when creating new projections for 2007 as the old trend of rookie Rbs being a huge factor appears to be a thing of the past now. And there has been plenty of rookie Rb talent entering the league the past 4 years. But many of these rookie Rbs are having to wait longer before they get thier chance to be feature Rbs. Larry Johnson Steven Jackson Chris Perry Tatum Bell Michael Turner Ronnie Brown Cedric Benson Reggie Bush Lawrence Maroney DeAngelo Williams Lendale White Jerious Norwood Joeseph Addai MJD Mike Bell have all had to wait thier turn and most are still waiting.

I could see several of these rbs entering the top 20 if they get thier chance to be a featured Rb in 2007.

 

[jrgeaumont]

Michael Turner

 

[pghrob]

FWP won't be top 10 next year, IMO. He is not someone who can pound the ball up the middle or run out the clock, and the team clearly wants and needs someone like that. As such, I see them acquiring a bigger back next year, and that back taking the goal-line work.-Josh

FWP has proven he can pound the ball and he has been just fine at the GL. This season, when the Steelers were ahead, FWP has 64 rushes for 326 Yards (5.1 ypc), 2 TD's and 13 first downs. Considering the Steelers have not lead often this season, when they have, he has killed the clock just fine.FWP bulked up in the offseason, he has developed more patience in letting his running lanes develop, and his performance this season give them no reason to go looking for what they already have.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Ronnie Brown is an interesting case. If they improve the offensive line further, he should easily be top 10; hell, he's top 10 in my league right now. On the other hand, though, isn't there a chance Ricky could come back next year? I think 13 is a fine ranking when taking everything together, but we'll need to see how things play out in the near future to get a real read on him.

Chester Taylor...he's been good this year only because he gets a ton of touches and has a ridiculously easy schedule, and even then he doesn't get into the end zone much. I think next year he'll take a hit just from schedule alone, and could possibly fall further if they sign WR help or something.

As SSOG is always fond of pointing out, Denver RBs are overrated when looking a year or more ahead. You just don't know if Skeletor's going to draft someone or what, and how the situation will play out.

Strongly disagree with Kevin Jones in top 5 - I see him as a first-round bust candidate next year. Again, NFC North teams this year all have among the easiest schedules ever, and according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats (which adjust for schedule) he is one of the worst starting RBs in the league (just like last year). Note that Chester Taylor doesn't rate very far above him, either, which is part of why I am suspicious of both for the future.

Ahman Green isn't top 10 either. Same NFC North schedule issues, plus he's a proven injury risk and you don't know if they'll move toward a committee.

Alexander should be top 5, I would imagine. This is his first bad year ever, and the offensive line (the main reason for his struggles early on) has been playing better in recent weeks. And being in the NFC West, he'll always have a nice and soft schedule to beat up on.

Westbrook seems right...he'll never be anything more than a late 1st-rounder IMO, due to his constant injuries.

Addai at #6 is a ballsy call, but I like it. Indy's system is fantasy gold for everybody involved.

Why so low on Rudi? I know it's PPR, but even still...AFC North is the opposite of NFC North in terms of schedule strength; those defense-adjusted stats I mentioned earlier rank Rudi as the #3 RB in the league because of this. Yes, I know AFC North is always tough, but not THIS tough; just look at Rudi's stats prior to this year. This team's also had some o-line injuries that impacted the running game more than the passing game. I just don't buy into him at #20.

Others have already commented on Dom Davis, no need to say anything more.

FWP won't be top 10 next year, IMO. He is not someone who can pound the ball up the middle or run out the clock, and the team clearly wants and needs someone like that. As such, I see them acquiring a bigger back next year, and that back taking the goal-line work.

Maroney at #16 is kinda like Ronnie #13...a pretty good ranking when considering all the possibilities, but not very meaningful since we'll need to wait and see what happens. If they phase out Dillon he's top 10 most likely, but I don't know the contract situation there etc. Pats homers, wanna chime in here?

Marion Barber's spot seems about right if he gets the starting job. That's another wait-and-see situation...

Edge in Arizona = not top 20. The organization just doesn't know that the offensive line exists, and until they fix that problem no RB will have much value there.

I like Deuce better than McGahee or Caddy, to be honest. Like Edge, he's become a more consistent runner after the ACL injury, and he's better in short-yardage as a result. Bush has been putrid when actually rushing the ball, and at the very least I think Deuce will still be getting the TDs + decent carries next year.

Finally, here's one great candidate nobody's mentioned: Brandon Jacobs. He has been one of the most consistent and effective runners in the league this year, he's obviously money at the goal line, and if this season is any indication he should be able to handle the starting job. Of course, there's a chance that they may draft/sign somebody to split carries...but if they don't he will be a beast.

Interesting thread, thanks for starting this discussion!

-Josh

EXACTLY! I was just reading the threads and saying to myself, "Nobody's mentioned Jacobs." If Tiki retires, (which seems fairly certain), Jacobs should be money.

Remember that's it's ppr. I don't see Jacobs as a monster there, and I'm not convinced that NYG doesn't draft a RB. If they don't, Jacobs will get some love from me, but not top 10 love at all. A couple other comments - I think you are vastly underrating Chester and KJ - remember this is ppr. Chester has a great O-Line and FB that aren't going anywhere, and a coach devoted to getting him the ball. KJ is a great talent that has excelled running and receiving this year. Both catch a lot of passes, though I'll agree that KJ's receptions will decrease if Martz leaves.

Am I alone in thinking that Ricky Williams will not impact Ronnie Brown next year?

You say Edge isn't top 20 with that O-Line... do you know he's #17 right now? That O-Line isn't going to get WORSE. Again, ppr makes a big difference. Who the coach is next year will tell us more about how he'll be used next year.

I guess I haven't seen FWP play, but I was under the impression that they were very happy with him. He has great numbers and appears to be doing it all on every down and in every situation. Maybe I'm wrong?

Good discussion points, good topic.

 

[BigTex]

Michael Turner

RFA

 

[BassNBrew]

FWP won't be top 10 next year, IMO. He is not someone who can pound the ball up the middle or run out the clock, and the team clearly wants and needs someone like that. As such, I see them acquiring a bigger back next year, and that back taking the goal-line work.-Josh

FWP has proven he can pound the ball and he has been just fine at the GL. This season, when the Steelers were ahead, FWP has 64 rushes for 326 Yards (5.1 ypc), 2 TD's and 13 first downs. Considering the Steelers have not lead often this season, when they have, he has killed the clock just fine.FWP bulked up in the offseason, he has developed more patience in letting his running lanes develop, and his performance this season give them no reason to go looking for what they already have.

Ahh...FWP scores to fast and rushes for too many yards. They Steelers need some fat tub of goo to fall forward for three yards and then celebrate like he made a game altering play. Parker reminds me of Tiki in his early years.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Strongly disagree with Kevin Jones in top 5 - I see him as a first-round bust candidate next year. Again, NFC North teams this year all have among the easiest schedules ever, and according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats (which adjust for schedule) he is one of the worst starting RBs in the league (just like last year).

I agree on KJ...just unloaded him yesterday for top 5 WR (non ppr, keeper) b/c of a difficult schedule from this point forward and the strong possibility that Martz moves on to greener pastures. Certainly not thinking that he is going to fall off the face of the earth, but he is RB5 in my ppr and RB6 in my non-ppr leagues....I think his stock is the highest it will be for a long time. Top 15 is my thoughts for next year, maybe fringe top 10.ETA: If Martz lands in Arizona, Edge comes back to the top 10 fast. Yeah, I know the OL stinks, but Martz has proven he can make an offense click (even if he hasn't proven he is a great HC)