I'll start by saying this is more anecdotal than data driven at this point, but a cursory glance leads me to believe that the top of drafts in 2022 will look radically different than the top of drafts in 2021. Further, I anticipate more change in the early rounds this year than in any other year I can remember in 25 + years of playing fantasy football.
The early round 2021 RBs have taken an absolute pounding: CMC (Injured, again), Barkley (Injured, again), Zeke (worn down and out, playing through it, but significantly diminished), Cook (great rebound game, but missed some time), Kamara (missed time), Henry (injuries)...and I'm sure there are others I've neglected. Taylor was, for many, a player taken on the round 1/2 turn, but now is the easy #1 overall pick.
The WRs perhaps also will change: Adams and Hill are still legit WR1s, but have they ceded the stratosphere to Chase and Jefferson? AJ Brown and DK Metcalf have underperformed. Patterson literally came from nowhere. Diggs has dropped off- a round #1 pick for many last year.
The upper end TEs- Kelce, still really good but worth a Round #1 pick in 2022- I would argue no. Kittle- great when he plays but the same old injury story- always misses time. Andrews- great rebound season, but how high do you push him?
The QBs are perhaps the most steady group- Allen, Mahomes, Kyler, Herbert, and Lamar likely will not see a significant change in valuation.
Taylor is a clear cut pick at 1.01....but it immediately gets really interesting after that, with a case to be made for lots of players (Jefferson, Chase, Henry, CMC....you could easily justify at least 7-8 players at 1.02. Do you go safe with Adams, Hill, bank on a CMC/Cook rebound?)
My point is there is massive change and I'd love to hear what others think.
The early round 2021 RBs have taken an absolute pounding: CMC (Injured, again), Barkley (Injured, again), Zeke (worn down and out, playing through it, but significantly diminished), Cook (great rebound game, but missed some time), Kamara (missed time), Henry (injuries)...and I'm sure there are others I've neglected. Taylor was, for many, a player taken on the round 1/2 turn, but now is the easy #1 overall pick.
The WRs perhaps also will change: Adams and Hill are still legit WR1s, but have they ceded the stratosphere to Chase and Jefferson? AJ Brown and DK Metcalf have underperformed. Patterson literally came from nowhere. Diggs has dropped off- a round #1 pick for many last year.
The upper end TEs- Kelce, still really good but worth a Round #1 pick in 2022- I would argue no. Kittle- great when he plays but the same old injury story- always misses time. Andrews- great rebound season, but how high do you push him?
The QBs are perhaps the most steady group- Allen, Mahomes, Kyler, Herbert, and Lamar likely will not see a significant change in valuation.
Taylor is a clear cut pick at 1.01....but it immediately gets really interesting after that, with a case to be made for lots of players (Jefferson, Chase, Henry, CMC....you could easily justify at least 7-8 players at 1.02. Do you go safe with Adams, Hill, bank on a CMC/Cook rebound?)
My point is there is massive change and I'd love to hear what others think.
