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Early Super Bowl Line (1 Viewer)

I quit gambling as of 24 hours ago, but this one might make me come out of retirement.

I CAN. NOT. IMAGINE. this line won't go up. Indy wins 37-24

 
You can see this one coming a mile away. The Saints have already exhaled. They'll subconsciously have a "just happy to be here" mentality. Meanwhile, Peyton will recognize that ring #2 will cement his legacy as the GOAT.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
If it continues to be this one-sided I just might have to put some money on the Saints.Moneyline, that is.
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The hype is going to be all on the Colts leading up to the game. If you like the Saints you'll get a better number if you wait a while. (Moneyline is going to be the play)
 
Raider Nation said:
You can see this one coming a mile away. The Saints have already exhaled. They'll subconsciously have a "just happy to be here" mentality. Meanwhile, Peyton will recognize that ring #2 will cement his legacy as the GOAT.
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Peyton Manning isn't even in the same universe as Joe Montana. Montana's playoff resume just dwarfs him. Peyton would have to go on an incredible run for the rest of his career to approach Montana's career playoff marks.The easiest way to spot the difference is to look at TDs vs INTs in their playoff careers. Peyton threw 3 TDs to 0 INTs today. That seriously is one of his best playoff games in his entire career, and he's been in the NFL for about a dozen years. For his career Peyton now is at 27 TDs to 18 INTs. That's fine but Joe Montana has 45 TDs to 21 INTs in his career. For Peyton to match that, he'd have to throw 18 TDs to just 3 INTs for the rest of his playoff career. That's vastly more production than Peyton has been doing to this point.Not to mention Joe Montana posted those obscene marks in an age where passing stats were not nearly as big as they are today. Considering today's high-powered air attacks, Peyton would have to not just match Montana but significantly exceed him to be the GOAT.Peyton might be the #2 QB of all time. No shame there. But its going to be awfully hard to eclipse Montana's body of work.
 
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kaa said:
Raider Nation said:
You can see this one coming a mile away. The Saints have already exhaled. They'll subconsciously have a "just happy to be here" mentality. Meanwhile, Peyton will recognize that ring #2 will cement his legacy as the GOAT.
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Peyton Manning isn't even in the same universe as Joe Montana. Montana's playoff resume just dwarfs him. Peyton would have to go on an incredible run for the rest of his career to approach Montana's career playoff marks.The easiest way to spot the difference is to look at TDs vs INTs in their playoff careers. Peyton threw 3 TDs to 0 INTs today. That seriously is one of his best playoff games in his entire career, and he's been in the NFL for about a dozen years. For his career Peyton now is at 27 TDs to 18 INTs. That's fine but Joe Montana has 45 TDs to 21 INTs in his career. For Peyton to match that, he'd have to throw 18 TDs to just 3 INTs for the rest of his playoff career. That's vastly more production than Peyton has been doing to this point.Not to mention Joe Montana posted those obscene marks in an age where passing stats were not nearly as big as they are today. Considering today's high-powered air attacks, Peyton would have to not just match Montana but significantly exceed him to be the GOAT.Peyton might be the #2 QB of all time. No shame there. But its going to be awfully hard to eclipse Montana's body of work.
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It's not as simple as adding up TD's and INT's. They played for completely different teams and Montana had the advantage of playing on a team with an incredible defense nearly every year. The Colts have had some good defenses but they haven't been consistently great like the 49ers were. Here's a stat to consider:Manning - 35 4th quarter comebacks, 44 game-winning drivesMontana - 31 4th quarter comebacks, 33 game-winning drivesHere's another one:Montana road playoff games - 2 Wins, 5 Losses. Of those two road wins, the only impressive one was the 1993 game at the Oilers where he brought the Chiefs back from being down 10-0. The other road playoff win was in 1988 at Chicago, who the defense held to 3 points.
 
Raider Nation said:
kaa said:
Raider Nation said:
You can see this one coming a mile away. The Saints have already exhaled. They'll subconsciously have a "just happy to be here" mentality. Meanwhile, Peyton will recognize that ring #2 will cement his legacy as the GOAT.
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Peyton Manning isn't even in the same universe as Joe Montana.
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LOL
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I don't agree with kaa all that often but as things stand right now I'd consider Montana a football legend and Manning a fantasy football legend. Manning would need to win it with this team to enter the same discussion with Montana. IMO the surrounding cast Manning has right now is less talented than any of the Montana SB winners but the team Manning had around him in his lone SB victory was better than the first team Montana led to the SB. This is Mannings 12th year and so far he only has one ring.
 
New Orleans and the over

MVP Reggie Bush

5 rushes 65 yards 1td

6 catches 40 yards

and a 70 yard punt return for a td

Saints win 31-28

 
Raider Nation said:
I quit gambling as of 24 hours ago, but this one might make me come out of retirement.

I CAN. NOT. IMAGINE. this line won't go up. Indy wins 37-24
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Free money is a good thing. Indy will crush the -4.
 
While I think Indy is the favorite in this. I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions. We love Payton Manning here in New Orleans but this one time, this game, he has to fail. Saints step up big! Who Dat?

Saints 35

Colts 33

 
bushisdaman said:
While I think Indy is the favorite in this. I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions. We love Payton Manning here in New Orleans but this one time, this game, he has to fail. Saints step up big! Who Dat?

Saints 35

Colts 33
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I hate to break this to you, but all the Mannings (including Archie) will be rooting for Peyton.
 
bushisdaman said:
I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions.
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I do not agree with this reasoning at all.
 
bushisdaman said:
While I think Indy is the favorite in this. I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions. We love Payton Manning here in New Orleans but this one time, this game, he has to fail. Saints step up big! Who Dat?Saints 35Colts 33
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Seems so strange hearing smack talk from a Saints fan.
 
bushisdaman said:
While I think Indy is the favorite in this. I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions. We love Payton Manning here in New Orleans but this one time, this game, he has to fail. Saints step up big! Who Dat?Saints 35Colts 33
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FYI, Manning became a Marino fan when his dad retired, not an old Ken Stabler or Richard Todd fan :lmao: who were the Saints QBs after Archie retired.
 
inzanitee said:
bushisdaman said:
I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions.
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I do not agree with this reasoning at all.
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I agree. Ridiculous. Peyton is a Colts fan now. When the Colts aren't involved, I'm sure he roots for the Saints, but this will play NO part in the game.
 
For those jumping on the Colts, consider this:

Saints 48 - Giants 27

Saints 45 - Cardinals 14

This is how the Saints have fared with a week off. Don't let one poor offensive showing cloud your thinking.

 
I can confirm that the line opened at 4 on sportsbook.com, I was upset about the line moving to 4.5 before I got my bet in.

The total is interesting. It opened at 56 went to 55.5 and has since moved back up to 56.5. 56 is a LOT of points - plus you don't know about the weather.

 
cstu said:
All that said, if I had a life or death playoff game to win, I'd rather have Montana.
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I agree. Its hard to ignore Montana's 4-0 Super Bowl record with a 128.7 QB rating in those games. That said, when looking at their career stats, Manning compares favorably to Montana with a higher career completion %, YPA, and a slightly better TD/INT ratio.
 
Raider Nation said:
You can see this one coming a mile away. The Saints have already exhaled. They'll subconsciously have a "just happy to be here" mentality. Meanwhile, Peyton will recognize that ring #2 will cement his legacy as the GOAT.
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This is why I love the whole "everybody has a voice" thing about the internet.
 
This is a taste of an ESPN Insider column about the Colts vs. the spread this season:

For the past few weeks I've been trying to answer this question: How much is Peyton Manning worth in the point spread?

Because, by all statistical measures, especially the ones the sharpest sharps pay attention to, this Colts team is not dominant, spectacular or anywhere close to being in the same class as past Super Bowl combatants. Their running game stinks -- it averaged just 3.5 yards per carry this season. And their overall defense was just 18th. When they played the Ravens in the first round, wise guys thought they were getting a steal by betting Baltimore plus-4.5. And this week against the Jets -- another top-notch defense -- the pros again liked taking the points on the underdog, this time at plus-7.5 (more once the weekend came around).

And yet, the Colts dispatched both of those defenses -- the two units bettors respect most -- with ease, covering the games by wide margins. In fact, despite the fact that not a single person watching football thinks anything about the Colts is worth the timbre in John Facenda's voice, they have consistently covered this season. Forgetting the final two games of the regular season, when Indy starters rested, the team is 12-3-1 against the spread, including the playoffs.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index...me=millman_chad
 
How much does Drew Brees undo the Peyton factor? Brees didnt have a great game against the Vikings but we all have seen what he can do when he is on. Brees was in the running for MVP the last two seasons and some argue (Myself included) that he was overlooked. I think the game will come down to the small things and not the QB's duking it out. Things like field position, turnover battle, running game to compliment the passing game, Special Teams and who ever wins the coin toss in over time. J/k

 
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The Ref said:
I can confirm that the line opened at 4 on sportsbook.com, I was upset about the line moving to 4.5 before I got my bet in.The total is interesting. It opened at 56 went to 55.5 and has since moved back up to 56.5. 56 is a LOT of points - plus you don't know about the weather.
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Took under 56.5.Both these teams have shown an ability, even with all the passing, for long, sustained drives. If a few drives end in FG, that'll be a tough line to cover.
 
Why are the Colts -5.5 in the Super Bowl?

It is NOT because they are 5.5 points better than the Saints on a neutral field. Because that is just ludicrous. They obviously are not. Think about if this game was in Indy...that would mean Indy would be what? A 9 point favorite based on this line? LOL.

In reality the game is close to a pick em, but that's not what this post is about really. Books had to put this line where it is to generate closer to balanced action. Even this high, more money will surely be bet on Indy. Because even if all the sharp money decides to take New Orleans it will never outweigh the public money bet on a Super Bowl. And the public will surely bet Indy in this one.

In the conference championships, the Colts won going away and covered and looked very good. The Saints seemed to sneak by the Vikes on their home field, and did not cover. And the public always overvalues recent results.

And I know it looks like sharp money bet Indy early since the line opened at -3.5 some places and was quickly bet up to where it is now. But but just because big money got down on Indy to push this line up does not mean that their BIG POSITION will end up on Indy. If they got down big money on Indy -3 or -3.5 and this line ends at -6, that is a huge middle opportunity that they have opened up for themselves. My guess is that the outfits bet Indy early to get ahead of the public so that they could have this opportunity to middle later, and could still take a large position on New Orleans late.

So in closing, I think this line is absolutely nuts and there is a ton of value on the Saints + the points.

Why is the Super Bowl O/U 56?

Because we have Peyton Manning vs Drew Brees in a Super Bowl. That alone basically ensures of value on the under, since the line has to be inflated for all the public money that will be bet on the Over. But does that make it worth a bet on the under? Maybe not by itself. But, when I look at these two teams more I think the Under is certainly worthy of a play.

While both team's offenses get all the publicity, both teams actually have good PASS defenses. Jabari Greer of the Saints is actually playing at an ELITE level right now. Is he Revis? Not quite. Is he playing close to that level right now? YES. I'm not saying Greer can shut out Wayne, but he can certainly contain him. Also, aside from last game where New Orleans played a lot of zone which left Shiancoe uncovered at times, the Saints have done a great job of shutting down opponents tight ends. With Dallas Clark across the field this time around, I'd expect the Saints to focus more attention on the tight end this game and go back to more man to man. So what you say? The Jets defense shut down Wayne and Clark pretty well and the Colts still scored 30. Well that is true, but the Jets defense is better at stuffing the run than New Orleans. That lead to more pass plays being called by Indy and we all know that more pass plays is beneficial to Overs in one way or another. Also, the Jets offense could not maintain drives to control the clock. New Orleans offense will have much more sustained drives via their VERY GOOD running game AND short passing game.

And let's not forget Indy's defense. Indy's pass defense should be healthy and back to full strength for this one and has been very good for years now. Also, with Freeney and Mathis off the edges, it will limit Drew Brees' time to throw and make him opt for shorter passes. All this leads to less scoring and maybe more importantly, LESS QUICK SCORES. And to get to this number (56), even with these great QBs, will be incredibly difficult without more than a few quick scores.

So obviously I like the under.

 
If I had to, I'd take the Saints with the points and the over as it stands right now. Seeing that Indy will likely be giving up more points as the SB draws closer I'd hold off and get more insurance points.

 
saintsfan said:
inzanitee said:
bushisdaman said:
I like the Saints, they are going to have a home crowd advantage yet again IMO and Payton Manning is going to be one conflicted QB. Yes I know he plays for the Colts and will do his best to win the game but inside on a subconscious level, his many years as a Saints fan watching his dad has to be playing on his emotions.
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I do not agree with this reasoning at all.
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I agree. Ridiculous. Peyton is a Colts fan now. When the Colts aren't involved, I'm sure he roots for the Saints, but this will play NO part in the game.
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Yeah, I feel good about the Saints' chances, but this "Peyton will be hindered by his soft spot for the Saints" rationale is just silly.
 
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Not a chance I'd lay any money on the Saints even if I think they're gonna win. Couldn't fathom doing so in such a big game as a fan. The win would be more than enough for me.

 
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