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Eddie Royal - currently WR8 - is this the year for him? (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Eddie Royal has come out of the gates quickly before. But is this the year that he has sustained success? Regardless the lovefest starts right here.

I am starting him over Roddy White, John Brown, and Percy Harvin. I'd have never thought I'd say that a few weeks ago. I keep looking around for that awesome WR3 to stick in my lineup behind Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones and I think he might be it.

Who's with me? Who are you starting him over? Who are you benching him for?

 
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I've barked up that tree twice before. No thanks

If he wasn't going to catch on last year, in perhaps one of SD's most pass happy offenses in the last decade, why would he this season in one of the most run-first offenses we've seen since LT?

IMO, his value is artificially inflated due to Green being out. One could argue he'd increase value with Woodhead being out as well, and in that case he is rosterable, but I will pass. I just don't see it when you have Allen and Gates, and you aren't throwing the ball that much (relatively speaking) that royal would earn a weekly start flex designation

 
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Dr. Brew said:
I've barked up that tree twice before. No thanks

If he wasn't going to catch on last year, in perhaps one of SD's most pass happy offenses in the last decade, why would he this season in one of the most run-first offenses we've seen since LT?

IMO, his value is artificially inflated due to Green being out. One could argue he'd increase value with Woodhead being out as well, and in that case he is rosterable, but I will pass. I just don't see it when you have Allen and Gates, and you aren't throwing the ball that much (relatively speaking) that royal would earn a weekly start flex designation
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Bro...what are you talking about? The chargers don't have any decent running backs right now. Not for another 2 weeks or so. They are passing the ball as much as they can.

 
Dr. Brew said:
I've barked up that tree twice before. No thanks

If he wasn't going to catch on last year, in perhaps one of SD's most pass happy offenses in the last decade, why would he this season in one of the most run-first offenses we've seen since LT?

IMO, his value is artificially inflated due to Green being out. One could argue he'd increase value with Woodhead being out as well, and in that case he is rosterable, but I will pass. I just don't see it when you have Allen and Gates, and you aren't throwing the ball that much (relatively speaking) that royal would earn a weekly start flex designation
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they are throwing the ball alot, they cant run it, their RB stink and their oline is awful at run blocking.

We have this act from Eddie Royal before, ride him while he is hot I say

 
He's leading the team in targets 4 games in. He's had at least 6 targets in each game this year, which he managed in only 5 games last year. He had a 10 target game, while his high all last year was 8.

He was very efficient last year on a per-target basis, and it looks like his role is growing.

 
I like his chances. There isn't really a big impending game changer in San Diego. QB is safe, RB situation will remain muddy, Gates is Gate and Ladarius is currently his caddy. I don't see anything significant to indicate that he'll suddenly lose a ton of targets.

 
My gut says it doesn't sustain but I am seeing him moved in trades here and there so there is at least a noticeable amount of owners who think his play is legit.

 
Only need to play one RB in my main league so he's in the mix to start over Ball, Richardson and Sankey (yikes!)

I've already moved him ahead of Patterson who's going to my bench this week.

 
On the one hand, his production is TD heavy which probably won't sustain. He's the opposite of Andrew Hawkins. TDs are volatile as we all know. I doubt he ends the season with 16 touchdowns so you have to look at his target numbers which are currently 29th in the league. Not great usage. I think his numbers don't really have any where to go but down.

 
He's had WR1 type production the past two weeks, thanks to the scores. Even you throw out those two games as outliers, it's not unreasonable to expect decent WR3 numbers from him, similar to his week 2 performance where he got 7 rec. for 69 yards on 10 targets. Chargers run game is stuck in the mud and P. Rivers is on fire lately. Why not ride the hot streak while it lasts?

 
I have played this game with him......no thanks.

Look at his September/Post September splits and thank me when you remove him from your lineup and he scores 2 points this week.

 
No running game to speak of with Matthews out,Green is hobbled and the Jets secondary is average,and that's being kind. He's in my lineup as a WR3/Flex play this week as Rivers should have another stellar game.

 
He has a great matchup against a crappy Jets secondary this weekend. I'm ridding him while he's hot. The first dud of a game he'll be back on my bench.

 
Rivers is going to hit who is open, right now most of the passing targets are healthy, Gates/Royal/KAllen/Floyd. each of them has had a big game or two.

Jets secondary stinks. Lets see if Mr. September can keep it going into October

 
Sabertooth said:
you have to look at his target numbers which are currently 29th in the league. Not great usage. I think his numbers don't really have any where to go but down.
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29th in the league = a WR3 by target standards. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be anything more than that. I see no reason to not keep riding him as a WR3 or flex until he gives us a reason not to.

 
2013 - 5 TD's in the first 2 games, 3 the TD's the rest of the year

2014 - 4 TD's in the first 4 games, ??? TD's the rest of the year

Out of 22 career TD's, Royal has scored a total of 8 TD's after week 4.

 
He's on pace for 944 yards. That would be his best mark since his rookie year, and would have been 27th in the NFL last year, but it's not something to get too excited about.

 
cstu said:
2013 - 5 TD's in the first 2 games, 3 the TD's the rest of the year

2014 - 4 TD's in the first 4 games, ??? TD's the rest of the year

Out of 22 career TD's, Royal has scored a total of 8 TD's after week 4.
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IIRC Royal had a toe injury in mid October last year that made him miss most of the rest of the year.

 
dblock05 said:
Dr. Brew said:
I've barked up that tree twice before. No thanks

If he wasn't going to catch on last year, in perhaps one of SD's most pass happy offenses in the last decade, why would he this season in one of the most run-first offenses we've seen since LT?

IMO, his value is artificially inflated due to Green being out. One could argue he'd increase value with Woodhead being out as well, and in that case he is rosterable, but I will pass. I just don't see it when you have Allen and Gates, and you aren't throwing the ball that much (relatively speaking) that royal would earn a weekly start flex designation
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Bro...what are you talking about? The chargers don't have any decent running backs right now. Not for another 2 weeks or so. They are passing the ball as much as they can.
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Bro...this year's San Diego d is much less pass happy than last year. At least with a healthy Rb. They have no running game now, but when they do count on it goijg back to run first

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
cstu said:
2013 - 5 TD's in the first 2 games, 3 the TD's the rest of the year

2014 - 4 TD's in the first 4 games, ??? TD's the rest of the year

Out of 22 career TD's, Royal has scored a total of 8 TD's after week 4.
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IIRC Royal had a toe injury in mid October last year that made him miss most of the rest of the year.
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I believe you're thinking of 2012--simply looking at stats it appears he missed a number of games after the first few weeks, whereas last year he played but the td's just dropped off the map. Given that he's in his 7th year, that 22/8 td count cstu references doesn't speak well for his chances at all. I've been agonizing about who to drop with him sitting at #9 in my league and glad that it seems so clear cut--he's always had a much better rep than any of the stats I've seen would support.

:coffee:

 
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The lack of Woodhead may have an impact on Royal's consistency here. At the least, I think it bumps him up in the red zone passing priority list. (ie: 1. Gates, 2. Allen, 3/4. Royal/Floyd?). Donald Brown isn't nearly as much of a threat as a receiver as Woodhead was. Branden Oliver may be someday but he isn't there yet. Perhaps they go run heavy again when Mathews is back. But they've seen him go down again and again now, so I doubt they risk leaning on him for much more than a game here or there. Plus their offensive line is struggling to run block. It should improve with Mathews but not by all that much. They are going to pass plenty each week.

 
Even knocking him down to one touchdown instead of 4 for the past two weeks that still puts him right around WR30. That's about his value I think. He's a very good WR4. He's a decent WR3 with upside. I don't fully trusty him either but to be honest, I trust him more than the likes of Eric Decker or Devin Hester.

 
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I think Keenan Allen's groin really limited him early on. Plus before the RB's went down they were running the ball a ton. With no running game and Allen finally healthy, I think we'll start to see Royal phased out in a sense as Rivers looks to pepper Allen with targets as he's easily their most talented receiver

Royal will still get his looks, but I think a healthy Allen = Royal falling off

 
Sabertooth said:
Eddie Royal has come out of the gates quickly before. But is this the year that he has sustained success? Regardless the lovefest starts right here.

I am starting him over Roddy White, John Brown, and Percy Harvin. I'd have never thought I'd say that a few weeks ago. I keep looking around for that awesome WR3 to stick in my lineup behind Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones and I think he might be it.

Who's with me? Who are you starting him over? Who are you benching him for?
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I've been lucky; I started him 2 weeks ago and last week and have watched the last three games closely live and on Short Cuts....

The key to Royal's success has been his snap %, which I would guess is as high as its been in his career. The Chargers are going 3 wide as their base 1st & 10 formation; even using it inside the 10 on early downs....and, because Rivers has a good rapport with Royal, this is leading to targets, catches, ok yards, and scores inside the RZ and outside the RZ.

Does anyone have a PFF subscription to see if Royal's YTD 2014 snap % is significantly higher than 2013? Because right now he shouldnt be viewed as another 3rd WR in the slot, but as a starter.

Of course the next question is how are Green and the RB situation affecting their 3WR % and his snap % and as those situations change will Royal's snap % change. If it's more 2TE or pro, then his snaps go down. If Green takes the slot in 3WR, then his snaps go down.

But one thing in the NFL is for sure: if you take advantage of your opportunities, you usually dont get future opportunities away from you. For that reason I'd definitely roster Royal as a Top 30 WR (i.e. cut him for anyone lower than 30) and ride him if/until you see his snap % go down.

 
Diamond said:
The lack of Woodhead may have an impact on Royal's consistency here. At the least, I think it bumps him up in the red zone passing priority list. (ie: 1. Gates, 2. Allen, 3/4. Royal/Floyd?). Donald Brown isn't nearly as much of a threat as a receiver as Woodhead was. Branden Oliver may be someday but he isn't there yet. Perhaps they go run heavy again when Mathews is back. But they've seen him go down again and again now, so I doubt they risk leaning on him for much more than a game here or there. Plus their offensive line is struggling to run block. It should improve with Mathews but not by all that much. They are going to pass plenty each week.
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:goodposting:

Through Chargers' first 4 games:

2013: RBs targeted 37 times (26.4% of team targets), 32 receptions, 240 receiving yards, 3 TDs, 15 first downs

2014: RBs targeted 30 times (21.9% of team targets), 25 receptions, 185 receiving yards, 0 TDs, 10 first downs

In 2013, Woodhead and Mathews had almost all of that production: 33 targets, 28 receptions, 219 receiving yards, 3 TDs, 14 first downs.

In 2014, Woodhead and Mathews had the following before getting hurt: 10 targets, 9 receptions, 80 yards, and 7 first downs. So the rest of the RBs have combined for just 3 first downs and 0 TDs on 20 targets.

So there is reason for the Chargers to look elsewhere, at least until Mathews gets back. Through the first 4 games in 2013, Royal had 19 targets. This season he has 29. And that is with the team attempting 3 fewer passes in the first 4 games this year, so it isn't about being pass happy.

I would say Royal's production should stay up at least until Mathews returns. (Barring injury.) After that, the coaching staff should use Mathews more in the passing game... but they should have done that last season and to start this season and didn't. So it's hard to say if they will do that. Maybe Brown's performance will finally open their eyes. If so, Royal's production will likely tail off a bit.

 
Played this game with him going back to Denver. Ride him while he does this for a few weeks then he disapears and everyone starts complaining. Not worth the grief and after so many times of him doing this there is no way to say this is the year. They said that last year, the year before etc. Hes a good WR but flucky for fantasy.

 
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Tango said:
The key to Royal's success has been his snap %, which I would guess is as high as its been in his career. The Chargers are going 3 wide as their base 1st & 10 formation
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Not today. 1st down is pro, BB/2TE. But Royal is still showing well. 1x 3rd conversion for 8 yards and then a super-tough over the shoulder in the seam for around 25 yds.

 
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