Elite TE Strategy: viable? Or borrowing from Peter to pay Paul? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let’s talk “elite TE” strategy. I’m always tempted. I know some of you are too. As a Niner fan, there’s no greater temptation than Kittle for me, since he’s a FF beast, and since I love rooting for him. 

The sleeper TE topic helped to confirm what seems pretty clear: the position is deep this year, albeit with a drop-off after the big 5. 

Sure, as with every year it’ll be hit & miss, with some falling to perform & some exceeding expectations, but there are a lot of players who seem to have the opportunity to provide mid-level FF performance.

That said, there are 5 fairly safe, high scoring PPR options available in the first 5 rounds: Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Andrews & Waller. I have Waller in the roughly the same tier, but I understand he’s less proven, and has arguably the worst QB of the 5 which probably effects his ADP.  Ertz has age/health questions & Andrews seems unproven but we’ll include him here as well based on ADP. 

I’ve tried mocking “elite TE” about a half dozen times now & i keep running into the same challenge: I sacrifice depth at WR or RB (usually the latter) and further downstream, if an elite QB falls further than they should, I lose the flexibility to take advantage since I’m already behind the 8-ball on 2 other positions. 

I understand the theory behind elite TE strategy. Having an advantage at an allegedly rare position with a dominant pass-catching TE over 6/11 of your opponents is good.

But at what cost? Is it worth it? Do any of you plan on taking one of the elite 3 this year,?

If so, why and what is your strategy to mitigate the deficiencies this can create for the rest of your roster?  Curious as to how the sharks of FBG are approaching elite TEs this year. They’re gonna get drafted, and it will be at or right around their ADP - will it be by you? 

why or why not? 

 

[Cobbler1]

You’d have an advantage over 9/11 opponents not 9/12. If you really have Waller in a tier with Kelce and Kittle then this is easy for you- Draft Waller early round 5 or late round 4 and you’ll be good if you’re correct in that valuation. I have no problem taking an elite te or Qb early or both even if that’s how the board falls. Yes you’re chasing Rb/Wr but you also have a huge edge at 2 positions. You no longer have to worry about those 2 positions the rest of the draft and can load up on Rb/Wr darts to go along with 3 of your top 5 picks at those positions. Plenty of Wr depth most years as well including this one. My perception is it’s easier to find Wr/Rb on the site as well. No data to back that though.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

I typically draft Kittle because I can get him in round 3 most often. I have him on a lot of my teams this year. The position may appear deep, but it's deep with guys who may or may not do much. Everyone has their favorite later round guys. A guy like Jonnu Smith could be taken and I don't care at all, where the guy who takes him thinks he got an absolute steal and is excited by him.

I like a lot of the lower ranked WRs than some so I'm okay waiting on the position and I'd be okay with a guy that shows some consistency with upside like Kareem Hunt as my RB2 if needed because I took that TE in the third round.

 

[davearm]

I'm all in on taking Kelce or Kittle in the second round this year.  I suppose a big part of that is I feel really good about the WRs available in the 5-10 round range.

My first 8 picks in a 12-team draft from last night looked like this:

Barkley

Kittle

Conner

Mostert

McLaurin

Cooks

Russell Wilson

Lamb

Most of my mocks had me waiting on QB and getting a guy in the Brady/Brees/Allen/Wentz tier in round 8 or 9, but I couldn't pass on Russ in the 7th.

I'm happy with that team, although I went in expecting a little better WR3 and WR4 than what I ended up with.  However I'll gladly take that tradeoff to have a big advantage at TE.

(Of course I'm also drinking the Brandin Cooks kool-aid this year, so that also explains why I'm feeling good.  IMO he's got a good shot to climb back into that fringe WR1 tier -- prior to last year he finished WR12 WR8 WR9 and WR12.)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I like a lot of the lower ranked WRs than some so I'm okay waiting on the position and I'd be okay with a guy that shows some consistency with upside like Kareem Hunt as my RB2 if needed because I took that TE in the third round.

I get that. But to the bolded above, who’s your RB3 in that scenario? A plug & pray RBBC guy like Breida? Worse?

I wrestle with that more than Hunt, who I love as a RB3/Flex play this year. 

i remind myself that my RB3 is more than an occasional flex player because I’ll need him to cover BYEs of my RB1-2.

And what does my RB depth look like if my 1-2 get hurt for any period of time?

the first 6 picks of the draft feel fine with an elite TE. It’s the resulting roster depth that concerns me more. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Late 2nd round I am interested in Kelce or Kittle if they make it. After that, I am not really looking until the 6th to see if Waller is still there. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm all in on taking Kelce or Kittle in the second round this year.  I suppose a big part of that is I feel really good about the WRs available in the 5-10 round range.

My first 8 picks in a 12-team draft from last night looked like this:

Barkley

Kittle

Conner

Mostert

McLaurin

Cooks

Russell Wilson

Lamb

Most of my mocks had me waiting on QB and getting a guy in the Brady/Brees/Allen/Wentz tier in round 8 or 9, but I couldn't pass on Russ in the 7th.

I'm happy with that team, although I went in expecting a little better WR3 and WR4 than what I ended up with.  However I'll gladly take that tradeoff to have a big advantage at TE.

(Of course I'm also drinking the Brandin Cooks kool-aid this year, so that also explains why I'm feeling good.  IMO he's got a good shot to climb back into that fringe WR1 tier -- prior to last year he finished WR12 WR8 WR9 and WR12.)

I appreciate your sharing this roster, and even more that you acknowledge the risk that such a roster carries.

Please don’t take this as criticism of your team, just observations on-topic using your roster as an example. i like Mostert as a RB3. Conner scares me as he’s never played 16 games, and I’m not sure what to expect of him this year. I’m not convinced Dallas will have 3 viable FF WRs, so Lamb will need a Cooper or Gallup injury to become a viable starter for you. 

So I guess your team is a perfect microcosm of what I see as risk vs reward.  And also a perfect example of how an elite QB fell to you & possibly set you back further. I agree he was a bargain there, but again potentially at the cost of quality or depth at WR or RB. 

The upside is there for a league winner as the reward, but if Cook gives you WR3 level play & Lamb is more like a WR4, it seems like the advantage you have at TE might be out-weighed.

it’s an interesting dilemma - I feel like there’s a possibility of finding just the right players in various rounds to unlock the key to success here, but there’s also a lot of risk.

so I guess my real question here is: is it more risky to do something like what you did in this draft than to stack RB/WR and take 2-3 upside TEs in the later rounds?  

At what point does the weekly advantage at TE not pay off when you potentially lose production at other positions? 
 

if the point of the strategy is 

your TE > opponent TE

How is that effected if 

your RBs < opponents RBs
or 

your WRs < opponents WRs

?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Late 2nd round I am interested in Kelce or Kittle if they make it. After that, I am not really looking until the 6th to see if Waller is still there. 

Waller has consistently gone in the 3rd-4th in my mocks the last week or so. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Waller has consistently gone in the 3rd-4th in my mocks the last week or so. 

BUMMER. I got him in a 10 person league that I was an emergency invite to in the 8th round. I knew it was a soft draft but I thought maybe there was a chance he could sneak into the 6th. I have listened to a lot of fantasy pods this summer and his name is never brought up. No buzz at all. 

ETA: not sure what they are worth but Waller just went 6.10 in a 12 team mock at Fantasy Pros 

 

[davearm]

I appreciate your sharing this roster, and even more that you acknowledge the risk that such a roster carries.

Please don’t take this as criticism of your team, just observations on-topic using your roster as an example. i like Mostert as a RB3. Conner scares me as he’s never played 16 games, and I’m not sure what to expect of him this year. I’m not convinced Dallas will have 3 viable FF WRs, so Lamb will need a Cooper or Gallup injury to become a viable starter for you. 

So I guess your team is a perfect microcosm of what I see as risk vs reward.  And also a perfect example of how an elite QB fell to you & possibly set you back further. I agree he was a bargain there, but again potentially at the cost of depth at WR or RB. 

The upside is there for a league winner as the reward, but if Cook gives you WR3 level play & Lamb is more like a WR4, it seems like the advantage you have at TE might be out-weighed.

it’s an interesting dilemma - I feel like there’s a possibility of finding just the right players in various rounds to unlock the key to success here, but there’s also a lot of risk.

so I guess my real question here is: is it more risky to do something like what you did in this draft than to stack RB/WR and take 2-3 upside TEs in the later rounds?  

At what point does the weekly advantage at TE not pay off when you potentially lose production at other positions? 

If I am deep at WR and RB but starting one of the "upside" TEs every week, then I'll spend the whole season trying to trade for one of the elite TEs to try and get points off my bench and into my lineup.

Instead of pushing that boulder up the mountain, I just drafted an elite TE instead.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

BUMMER. I got him in a 10 person league that I was an emergency invite to in the 8th round. I knew it was a soft draft but I thought maybe there was a chance he could sneak into the 6th. I have listened to a lot of fantasy pods this summer and his name is never brought up. No buzz at all. 

I’m in the Bay Area and half my league are Raiders fans, so I take the highest mock / ADP and add a full round. There will be no discounted Niners or Raiders for me. :(  

But yeah - i’ve seen him go as early as 3.09 and as late as mid-5th, so you could get him in the 5th. I won’t. But you could. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I’m in the Bay Area and half my league are Raiders fans, so I take the highest mock / ADP and add a full round. There will be no discounted Niners or Raiders for me. :(  

But yeah - i’ve seen him go as early as 3.09 and as late as mid-5th, so you could get him in the 5th. I won’t. But you could. 

That is so frustrating but I have also been saved from taking some bad Lions RBs because of the local bias here. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That is so frustrating but I have also been saved from taking some bad Lions RBs because of the local bias here. 

Bear in mind, some of these are CBS mocks, and people do stupid **** Intentionally.

fantasy football calculator has Waller as 6.03 with a range of 3.08 to 6.08, so maybe you get him as late as the 6th? 

 

[barackdhouse]

Let’s talk “elite TE” strategy. I’m always tempted. I know some of you are too. As a Niner fan, there’s no greater temptation than Kittle for me, since he’s a FF beast, and since I love rooting for him. 

The sleeper TE topic helped to confirm what seems pretty clear: the position is deep this year, albeit with a drop-off after the big 3.

Sure, as with every year it’ll be hit & miss, with some falling to perform & some exceeding expectations, but there are a lot of players who seem to have the opportunity to provide mid-level FF performance.

That said, there are 3 fairly safe, high scoring PPR options available in the first 3 rounds: Kelce, Kittle & Waller. I have Waller in the same tier, but I understand he’s less proven, and has arguably the worst QB of the 3 which probably effects his ADP. 

I’ve tried mocking “elite TE” about a half dozen times now & i keep running into the same challenge: I sacrifice depth at WR or RB (usually the latter) and further downstream, if an elite QB falls further than they should, I lose the flexibility to take advantage since I’m already behind the 8-ball on 2 other positions. 

I understand the theory behind elite TE strategy. Having an advantage at an allegedly rare position with a dominant pass-catching TE over 9/11 of your opponents is good.

But at what cost? Is it worth it? Do any of you plan on taking one of the elite 3 this year,?

If so, why and what is your strategy to mitigate the deficiencies this can create for the rest of your roster?  Curious as to how the sharks of FBG are approaching elite TEs this year. They’re gonna get drafted, and it will be at or right around their ADP - will it be by you? 

why or why not? 

Again TE premium is another beast. Kelce and Kittle are going 1st round. I got Kittle at 2.05 the other day in FPC and was blown away. In that format, TEs go earlier and as a result, other positions actually get pushed down (a little) as you go thru the first several rounds, so it is actually a little easier to overcome what you're talking about than in regular PPR.

But IMO the best way to overcome the gap you're volunteering for by taking an elite TE early, in any format, is to simply draft better everywhere else too. Nail the rest of it. If you can you will have a dominant team. If you don't you will still (likely) be in the hunt and a couple solid inseason moves can put you over the top.

I don't always go TE early, though. Even in premium. Depends on slot and what kind of a build I'm going for. But often the best squads are dominant or very strong at TE. Either thru the early stud or the late emerger strategy. 

TLDR version is that you should be a good enough drafter to overcome the impact that taking an early TE has on the rest of your draft. Try playing some TE premium to stretch your skills on it. Try some different approaches because I almost never feel ####ty about my roster after taking an early TE. But I hear people say that they hate their rosters all the time when they do. So......zig?

 

[TheWinz]

ADP's for 12-teamer PPR

FBG
Kelce - 2.4
Kittle - 2.12
Andrews - 4.2
Ertz - 4.8
Waller - 5.9

FFCalc
Kelce - 2.8
Kittle - 3.1
Andrews - 4.7
Ertz - 5.3
Waller - 6.1

FantasyPros
Kelce - 2.8
Kittle - 2.12
Ertz - 4.2
Andrews - 4.5
Waller - 5.5

Why are you calling Kelce, Kittle, and Waller the big 3?  Do you know something others don't about Andrews and Ertz?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

TLDR version is that you should be a good enough drafter to overcome the impact that taking an early TE has on the rest of your draft. Try playing some TE premium to stretch your skills on it. Try some different approaches because I almost never feel ####ty about my roster after taking an early TE. But I hear people say that they hate their rosters all the time when they do. So......zig?

Yeah, for TE premium I totally get it.  definitely a different beast than standard scoring PPR where the only advantage TEs have is positional scarcity/drop to the next tier. 

This isn’t really about my team as I’m highly unlikely to spend on an elite TE, but using my upcoming draft as an example,  I pick at 1.03. So even with a Waller in the 5th, (he’ll go in the 4th in my league to the Raiders fan picking at 4.02 or the one picking 4.04) if I have RB-WR-WR-WR, or RB-WR-WR-RB, then taking Waller at 5.03, I’m looking at my RB2 or WR3 at 6.10. And my RB3 or WR3 at 7.03 depending.

looking at ADP, that’s a sizable drop off in tier compared to the WR or RB I’d be able to land with that 5th rounder. 

and it also costs me some flexibility. Having long been a QB-freefall proponent, I’m always on the lookout for value rounds 6-8, just in case. By taking the TE at 5,  I feel like I’m committed to RB/WR 6/7. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ADP's for 12-teamer PPR

FBG
Kelce - 2.4
Kittle - 2.12
Andrews - 4.2
Ertz - 4.8
Waller - 5.9

FFCalc
Kelce - 2.8
Kittle - 3.1
Andrews - 4.7
Ertz - 5.3
Waller - 6.1

FantasyPros
Kelce - 2.8
Kittle - 2.12
Ertz - 4.2
Andrews - 4.5
Waller - 5.5

Why are you calling Kelce, Kittle, and Waller the big 3?  Do you know something others don't about Andrews and Ertz?

It’s a fair point & I’ll add those guys to my OP. 

it was more a philosophical question - I am aware of both Andrews & Ertz. I own Ertz in dynasty & I am hesitant to anoint Andrews though I guess he’s earned it. 

but the point of the topic holds regardless of who the elite TE is. Actually maybe even moreso with 5 TEs in the “elite” tier. 

 

[TheWinz]

Starting requirements?

 

[barackdhouse]

Yeah, for TE premium I totally get it.  definitely a different beast than standard scoring PPR where the only advantage TEs have is positional scarcity/drop to the next tier. 

This isn’t really about my team as I’m highly unlikely to spend on an elite TE, but using my upcoming draft as an example,  I pick at 1.03. So even with a Waller in the 5th, (he’ll go in the 4th in my league to the Raiders fan picking at 4.02 or the one picking 4.04) if I have RB-WR-WR-WR, or RB-WR-WR-RB, then taking Waller at 5.03, I’m looking at my RB2 or WR3 at 6.10. And my RB3 or WR3 at 7.03 depending.

looking at ADP, that’s a sizable drop off in tier compared to the WR or RB I’d be able to land with that 5th rounder. 

and it also costs me some flexibility. Having long been a QB-freefall proponent, I’m always on the lookout for value rounds 6-8, just in case. By taking the TE at 5,  I feel like I’m committed to RB/WR 6/7. 

Well I didn't mean to direct that as advice to you specifically, just generally in response to your OP. 

But maybe my point got lost because I was trying to say that even in PPR you should be able to draft around the lack of flexibility that comes with taking an elite TE early. I think premium formats can be learned from though. 

I think you, or anyone, should experiment with some cheap best ball drafts to try different builds. I would take Hurst or Herndon later over Waller, but if he is your guy I am sure you can get a roster you like around him. He *is* going in an area I have been getting RBs and WRs. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He *is* going in an area I have been getting RBs and WRs. 

Yeah, I’m with you on that. 4-5-6 are rounds that I have a LOT of favorite WR/RB targets. 

Hurst is available in the 7-8 arena, so I feel like he’s a better target. The downside there is missing on that Hurst/Hockenson tier, and having to settle for a Jawrin/Gesecki type, or punting altogether & gobbling up Goedert/Doyle/OJ Howard/Dissley set to hope one sticks.

there are a lot of potentially solid TEs this year. I’m not really feeling that pressed to invest in an elite.
 

But I think you’re right in that it can work. would love to see examples of 2020 drafted rosters where it does so without a ton of risk or lack of depth. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Starting requirements?

I assume standard these days is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 O-FL. 

 

[TheWinz]

I assume standard these days is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 O-FL. 

I only asked because I was gonna throw out a CMC, Kelce, Kittle start and watch people go nuts

 

[Wrigley]

I drafted Andrews in the last round of each of my drafts last year.

I'll be waiting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

BUMMER. I got him in a 10 person league that I was an emergency invite to in the 8th round. I knew it was a soft draft but I thought maybe there was a chance he could sneak into the 6th. I have listened to a lot of fantasy pods this summer and his name is never brought up. No buzz at all. 

ETA: not sure what they are worth but Waller just went 6.10 in a 12 team mock at Fantasy Pros 

just checked FBG. They have the following PPR ADP for the “big 5”

Kelce 1.10

Kittle: 2.07

Andrews: 3.08

Ertz: 4.02

Waller: 5.06

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I only asked because I was gonna throw out a CMC, Kelce, Kittle start and watch people go nuts

lol - per ADP you could conceivably have a team like

1.01 - CMC

2.12 - Kittle

3.01 - Kelce

4.12 - Parker

5.01 - David Johnson

6.12 - Cooks

7.01 - Kareem Hunt

Start Kittle at O-Flex?

killer team until the BYEs, injury or the Ro Ro gets ya.  

 

[TheWinz]

just checked FBG. They have the following PPR ADP for the “big 5”

Kelce 1.10

Kittle: 2.05

Andrews: 3.08

Ertz: 4.02

Waller: 5.06

Huh?  Are we looking at the same page?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Huh?  Are we looking at the same page?

I’m looking at their mock draft app. just launched it. That’s where it shows the ADPs.

ETA: oops, Kittle 2.07

 

[TheWinz]

I’m looking at their mock draft app. just launched it. That’s where it shows the ADPs.

Ah, OK.  I was looking at their ADP listed under Draft Kit

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

just checked FBG. They have the following PPR ADP for the “big 5”

Kelce 1.10

Kittle: 2.07

Andrews: 3.08

Ertz: 4.02

Waller: 5.06

Disregard. Looking at the ADP page it is vastly different from their mock draft software. 

not sure why that would be but here’s what the FBG ADP page says:

16th overall (2.04) Kelce

24th (2.12) - Kittle

38th (4.02) - Andrews

44th (4.08) - Ertz 

57 (5.09) - Waller

that makes more sense. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ah, OK.  I was looking at their ADP listed under Draft Kit

Yeah - just did that. Weird that they vary. I wonder what’s up with that? 
 

I usually go by fantasy football calculator ADP myself. 
they have it like this:

2.08 - Kelce 

3.01 - kittle

 4.07 - Andrews

5.03 - Ertz

6.01 - Waller

some of their high variance are really high (Kelce 1.03, Kittle 1.05), which I assume is due to TE premium drafts. Alas; no way to exclude that. 

 

[barackdhouse]

I assume standard these days is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 O-FL. 

FPC has two flex spots and starting more than one TE is a regular thing. 

 

[barackdhouse]

This is TE premium but here is a roster where I took Kelce in the first round. 

Mahomes, Big Ben

Taylor, Jones II, Love, Gibson, Vaughn, Darwin

Sutton, McLaurin, Hardman, Reagor, Edwards, Pittman, Claypool

Kelce, Higbee, OJ Howard

Legatron and Bucs D

*shrugs* 

 

[barackdhouse]

I won't flood this but here is a TE premium where I went Kittle/Adams out of the 12 spot.

Brees, Jones

Conner, Carson, Dobbins, Duke, Vaughn

Adams, Slayton, Sanders, Jefferson, Edwards, Corey Davis

Kittle, Higbee, Howard

Legatron, Rams D

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is TE premium but here is a roster where I took Kelce in the first round. 

Mahomes, Big Ben

Taylor, Jones II, Love, Gibson, Vaughn, Darwin

Sutton, McLaurin, Hardman, Reagor, Edwards, Pittman, Claypool

Kelce, Higbee, OJ Howard

Legatron and Bucs D

*shrugs* 

Yeah, I mean it's hard to knock your TEs or QB, but your RBs are kind of a mess. And I see a lot of WR2s, which I guess is to be expected. 

I do like the WR2s you have  - to phrase it like FBG, "we're especially high on Scary Terry, Pittman & Sutton" but you need a lot of lucky breaks to get production out of that group of RBs compared to the teams with at least 1 elite guy. 

that said, IF things break right and Taylor takes over as many expect, this could be a bigtime 2nd half team. The questions is what's your record when you get there? 

I appreciate your sharing this. It definitely is eye opening, though not altogether unexpected. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I won't flood this but here is a TE premium where I went Kittle/Adams out of the 12 spot.

Brees, Jones

Conner, Carson, Dobbins, Duke, Vaughn

Adams, Slayton, Sanders, Jefferson, Edwards, Corey Davis

Kittle, Higbee, Howard

Legatron, Rams D

This is a significantly stronger team than the last one you posted.  Maybe it has a lot to do with draft position as well as hitting your guys? Carson falling to what I asusume is 3.12 helped a lot. Still light at RB3 and need one of those guys to become viable. 

Both of these teams seem to lack depth. Maybe I'm just too snakebit to go into a season with this little depth - I always get injuries, so I try to have 3 deep at RB and 4 deep at WR. 

But I definitely like this team a lot. Nice work.  

 

[barackdhouse]

Yeah, I mean it's hard to knock your TEs or QB, but your RBs are kind of a mess. And I see a lot of WR2s, which I guess is to be expected. 

I do like the WR2s you have  - to phrase it like FBG, "we're especially high on Scary Terry, Pittman & Sutton" but you need a lot of lucky breaks to get production out of that group of RBs compared to the teams with at least 1 elite guy. 

that said, IF things break right and Taylor takes over as many expect, this could be a bigtime 2nd half team. The questions is what's your record when you get there? 

I appreciate your sharing this. It definitely is eye opening, though not altogether unexpected. 

Yea I've got a couple others I like better than this one. Not trying to hijack and make this about my roster(s), rather just an example of a couple constructions. Even took Mahomes in the 2nd and a second TE (7th?). Those picks could certainly have been different and maybe the take would look different, for example. Mostert is a guy I like you could sub for Jones maybe. Or maybe Conner/Carson instead of Taylor (who I love). So there is wiggle room here for the readers preference, you know. Brees is a great later QB pick this year I think. But I wanted to shoot for the moon and went Kelce Mahomes 1, 2. It does have consequences. 

This is definitely a more extreme zigging example. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Ok how bout this one?

LAMAR 2.11

BARKLEY 1.02

MOSTERT

METCALF

MARQUISE

KIRK

JARWIN

ANDREWS 3.02

LEGATRON

KC

DUKE

GIBSON

VAUGHN

PITTMAN

AIYUK

DAVIS

STILLS

ARNOLD

BURROW

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok how bout this one?

LAMAR 2.11

BARKLEY 1.02

MOSTERT

METCALF

MARQUISE

KIRK

JARWIN

ANDREWS 3.02

LEGATRON

KC

DUKE

GIBSON

VAUGHN

PITTMAN

AIYUK

DAVIS

STILLS

ARNOLD

BURROW

I think you need to choose an extreme: Are you going to go elite TE or elite QB? 

These teams all suffer 2x as much for doing both.  That's the trend I'm noticing.  I would suggest going elite TE & QB freefall. It's a deep year. I don't see that much drop-off from Lamar to Kyler Murray over the course of the season, and you can get Murray in the 6th-7th (ADP 6.04) as opposed to the 2nd. Stafford may well score the same as both if he can stay healthy & you can get him (10.04) and Roethlisburger (11.10) who was a 5000 yard passer not that long ago for dirt cheap later and not drop off all that much compared to the several-tier drop-off and lack of depth you experience at RB and/or WR by taking an elite QB in the first few rounds. 

The more of your teams I see, the less likely I am to go elite TE strategy. We aren't a TE premium league, so I figure I'll take my chances with a Hooper in the 8th after I hahve my 3 RBs and 4 WRs - then swing back and grab a couple value QBs 9-10 or 10-11.  

All subject to change per draft-flow of course. Never know what falls to you & I would have a hard time passing on a Kittle in the 3rd, for example. But if I do that I'm basically resigning myself to a QB value pick, which could mean passing up on value later. 

I don't think your draft examples are off-topic at all - they add real value to the discussion by providing examples of how things work out when you draft using the method at the center of discussion. If anything they seem to completely validate my point. 

Something's gotta give. When you do anything but RB or WR in the early rounds, you're sacrificing both depth and quality at those positions. Of course you make up for it with the players you take, but the goal is to determine if the off-setting value is worth doing it or not. 

Interestingly I just went back 5 years of drafts (I have all the live draft boards) and looked at league history. Not one of the 5 years did a league champ have one of the elite (2-3 round) TEs.  Purely anecdotal, of course, but I expected at least one to have won the league. nope. 

 

[davearm]

This is a significantly stronger team than the last one you posted.  Maybe it has a lot to do with draft position as well as hitting your guys? Carson falling to what I asusume is 3.12 helped a lot. Still light at RB3 and need one of those guys to become viable. 

Both of these teams seem to lack depth. Maybe I'm just too snakebit to go into a season with this little depth - I always get injuries, so I try to have 3 deep at RB and 4 deep at WR. 

But I definitely like this team a lot. Nice work.  

JMHO, but you seem too hung up on leaving the draft with great depth.  Depth is pretty easy to build up during the season through shrewd waiver moves.  Undrafted guys emerge as viable RB3/WR3 types every year.

Not as easy to land an elite starter that way.  So draft as many of those guys as you can, and worry about building out depth later.  Have faith in your ability to mine a few gems.

 

[CalBear]

I think top TEs are virtually always undervalued in TE-required leagues. Tony Gonzalez delivered over 50 VBD points six seasons in a row; three of those seasons were over 90 VBD points. And he was predictable in doing it, as was Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, and the few other truly elite TEs. After the first two or three RBs and WRs and QBs are off the boards, the top TEs are a better bet than any of the second-tier players at other positions.

And there's no way taking a TE can put you behind at two positions. It's only one pick.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

JMHO, but you seem too hung up on leaving the draft with great depth.  Depth is pretty easy to build up during the season through shrewd waiver moves.  Undrafted guys emerge as viable RB3/WR3 types every year.

Not as easy to land an elite starter that way.  So draft as many of those guys as you can, and worry about building out depth later.  Have faith in your ability to mine a few gems.

Read my very next sentence after the one you bolded.

i used to take the cavalier attitude you have. I would take huge risks and end up thin at positions believing I could find players off waivers.  Sometimes that’s true.  I play in a league with 11 extremely competent FF managers. Finding waiver gems is difficult in this group. Everyone is always on the hunt.

I don’t lack confidence in my picks, I lack trust in my picks staying on the field. Depth matters too. My best seasons I come away from the draft with depth. I don’t mean you need to be 5-6 deep at every position. I mean having 3 viable RBs and 4 viable WRs. I want to be able to cover BYEs and sustain injury.

Taking that early TE might mean grabbing 4-5 plug & pray or RBBC or backup RBs hoping one of them gets an opportunity. 

but then, it’s an IDP league with 27 roster spots. If you’re in a shallow bench league, there’s a lot more to be had on the wire. I haven’t played in that kind of format in over a decade. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

And there's no way taking a TE can put you behind at two positions. It's only one pick.

Wasn’t saying it would. Was saying if you do go elite TE, you won’t be able to take advantage of an elite QB falling to you. Because taking a TE in the 2nd then a QB in the 5th will definitely put you behind the 8-ball at 2 positions.

Just the TE will only hurt you at one.

I agree with much of your post, but for one thing - taking a Kelce or Kittle At their 2nd round ADP will be in place of a top tier WR or RB.  Once you get to the 3rd/4th/5th with Ertz, Andrews, Waller you’re taking a tier 1-2 TE over a tier 3-4 WE/RB.  Where that becomes a challenge is in a flex  league where you need that 3rd RB or 4th WR for your active lineup. 

Another challenge is that quite a few of those players in those 3-4-5 tiers have upside to be better than their ADP/tier. In my experience, It’s easier to hit on a RB3 with RB2 upside than it is to hit later on a RB4 with RB3 upside.

Not saying you can’t do it. It just seems more likely to get a top 10 TE in the 7-12 rounds, which to me makes this an easier choice. 

i won’t knock anyone for grabbing an early TE. I remember grabbing Tony Gonzalez in the 3rd many years ago and getting awesome production from him. And I also remember having a crappy WR3 all year & never finding an upgrade. 

each to their own.  

 

[barackdhouse]

I think you need to choose an extreme: Are you going to go elite TE or elite QB? 

These teams all suffer 2x as much for doing both.  That's the trend I'm noticing.  I would suggest going elite TE & QB freefall. It's a deep year. I don't see that much drop-off from Lamar to Kyler Murray over the course of the season, and you can get Murray in the 6th-7th (ADP 6.04) as opposed to the 2nd. Stafford may well score the same as both if he can stay healthy & you can get him (10.04) and Roethlisburger (11.10) who was a 5000 yard passer not that long ago for dirt cheap later and not drop off all that much compared to the several-tier drop-off and lack of depth you experience at RB and/or WR by taking an elite QB in the first few rounds. 

The more of your teams I see, the less likely I am to go elite TE strategy. We aren't a TE premium league, so I figure I'll take my chances with a Hooper in the 8th after I hahve my 3 RBs and 4 WRs - then swing back and grab a couple value QBs 9-10 or 10-11.  

All subject to change per draft-flow of course. Never know what falls to you & I would have a hard time passing on a Kittle in the 3rd, for example. But if I do that I'm basically resigning myself to a QB value pick, which could mean passing up on value later. 

I don't think your draft examples are off-topic at all - they add real value to the discussion by providing examples of how things work out when you draft using the method at the center of discussion. If anything they seem to completely validate my point. 

Something's gotta give. When you do anything but RB or WR in the early rounds, you're sacrificing both depth and quality at those positions. Of course you make up for it with the players you take, but the goal is to determine if the off-setting value is worth doing it or not. 

Interestingly I just went back 5 years of drafts (I have all the live draft boards) and looked at league history. Not one of the 5 years did a league champ have one of the elite (2-3 round) TEs.  Purely anecdotal, of course, but I expected at least one to have won the league. nope. 

I disagree. I think you can easily swap out a couple of *your* guys for *my* guys and you'd feel different. 

 

[barackdhouse]

JMHO, but you seem too hung up on leaving the draft with great depth.  Depth is pretty easy to build up during the season through shrewd waiver moves.  Undrafted guys emerge as viable RB3/WR3 types every year.

Not as easy to land an elite starter that way.  So draft as many of those guys as you can, and worry about building out depth later.  Have faith in your ability to mine a few gems.

Yep. I don't really believe in depth. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Read my very next sentence after the one you bolded.

i used to take the cavalier attitude you have. I would take huge risks and end up thin at positions believing I could find players off waivers.  Sometimes that’s true.  I play in a league with 11 extremely competent FF managers. Finding waiver gems is difficult in this group. Everyone is always on the hunt.

I don’t lack confidence in my picks, I lack trust in my picks staying on the field. Depth matters too. My best seasons I come away from the draft with depth. I don’t mean you need to be 5-6 deep at every position. I mean having 3 viable RBs and 4 viable WRs. I want to be able to cover BYEs and sustain injury.

Taking that early TE might mean grabbing 4-5 plug & pray or RBBC or backup RBs hoping one of them gets an opportunity. 

but then, it’s an IDP league with 27 roster spots. If you’re in a shallow bench league, there’s a lot more to be had on the wire. I haven’t played in that kind of format in over a decade. 

I think you like guys I don't and vice versa (and that's fine of course) and that creates different sweet spots and values as a draft unfolds.

I totally agree that taking a QB *and* a TE early is upping the ante. But I mean I would put Barkley and Mostert against any 1,2 RB combo out there. And I see nothing but $$$$$ with Metcalf and Marquise so in my mind (because they're my guys) I've got one of the best starting lineups out there. I'm not trying to chest beat about my roster - I'm just saying I really think if you built a team this way but with the guys *you* like, you will love it. It is easy to get in the weeds of the guys I picked.

 

[barackdhouse]

Also I'm talking about these FPC drafts where you're trying to win the big prize not by drafting a safe team but by hitting upside picks and going (at least a little bit) against the grain.

That might not be the best advice for your average local friendly league. 

 

[rockaction]

I think you like guys I don't and vice versa (and that's fine of course) and that creates different sweet spots and values as a draft unfolds.

I totally agree that taking a QB *and* a TE early is upping the ante. But I mean I would put Barkley and Mostert against any 1,2 RB combo out there. And I see nothing but $$$$$ with Metcalf and Marquise so in my mind (because they're my guys) I've got one of the best starting lineups out there. I'm not trying to chest beat about my roster - I'm just saying I really think if you built a team this way but with the guys *you* like, you will love it. It is easy to get in the weeds of the guys I picked.

I love this advice and have tried to build my dynasty team that way. I'm not necessarily playing for points, even, but for guys that I think are just the best out there and are a joy to watch (Which almost always translates into points. Unless you're Will Fuller. But that's another story for another day.) I've found this gives me a passion to stick with it and gather all the information and put in all the work I can because I truly believe in the guys.

 

[CalBear]

Wasn’t saying it would. Was saying if you do go elite TE, you won’t be able to take advantage of an elite QB falling to you. Because taking a TE in the 2nd then a QB in the 5th will definitely put you behind the 8-ball at 2 positions.

Just the TE will only hurt you at one.

I agree with much of your post, but for one thing - taking a Kelce or Kittle At their 2nd round ADP will be in place of a top tier WR or RB.  Once you get to the 3rd/4th/5th with Ertz, Andrews, Waller you’re taking a tier 1-2 TE over a tier 3-4 WE/RB.  Where that becomes a challenge is in a flex  league where you need that 3rd RB or 4th WR for your active lineup. 

Another challenge is that quite a few of those players in those 3-4-5 tiers have upside to be better than their ADP/tier. In my experience, It’s easier to hit on a RB3 with RB2 upside than it is to hit later on a RB4 with RB3 upside.

Not saying you can’t do it. It just seems more likely to get a top 10 TE in the 7-12 rounds, which to me makes this an easier choice. 

i won’t knock anyone for grabbing an early TE. I remember grabbing Tony Gonzalez in the 3rd many years ago and getting awesome production from him. And I also remember having a crappy WR3 all year & never finding an upgrade. 

each to their own.  

You're swapping one for another. If you take an elite QB and an elite TE, you're ahead at two positions and behind at two others; just like if you took the elite WR and the elite RB. VBD is the main tool used to differentiate the lineup scoring potential of different positions, and Kelce, for example, has put up 69, 109, and 80 VBD points in the last three year, an average of over 85. 85 VBD points is huge. His 80 in 2019 was good for #8 overall. So taking him instead of, say, Chris Carson got you an average of an extra two points a game in your starting lineup. Or to put it another way, taking Carson instead of Kelce would have put you further behind at TE than you would have been at RB.

And that's leaving aside the fact that RBs are a lot less predictable. The actual 2019 late-first RBs? David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, Todd Gurley. All busts. 

Kelce is worth a first-round pick in TE-required leagues. Once you get past the elite tier (this year, probably Kelce and Kittle) the drop-off is pretty fast and you may not be getting much for your pick. That's why the elite TEs are so valuable; the difference between Kelce and Waller is way larger than the difference between, say, DeVante Adams and Joe Mixon vs. AJ Brown or Chris Carson. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I love this advice and have tried to build my dynasty team that way. I'm not necessarily playing for points, even, but for guys that I think are just the best out there and are a joy to watch (Which almost always translates into points. Unless you're Will Fuller. But that's another story for another day.) I've found this gives me a passion to stick with it and gather all the information and put in all the work I can because I truly believe in the guys.

I built my dynasty team the same way. And so far it’s working out for me. I’m actually a little thin at RB in that league after dealing Kamara. But it’s a team I like, and I like all the players on it. They’re fun to root for and I have some upside guys as well. 

topics like this are obviously about redraft. 

I guess a lot comes down to risk vs reward.

I can’t count the times I’ve read “there are guys I like later in the draft so I’ll just grab the TE1 and stock up later” on this board. That would be great if it worked like that in practice. But since 11 other guys in your league feel the same way, it’s harder and harder every year. More people have access to more information. This isn’t the 90s when we all had magazines in front of us, 5 mo’s out of print & by watching preseason we could find sleepers no one else knew. 

Sometimes you draft with enough sharks that players you think will be there in the 7th are gone in the 5th & 6th. Drafts ebb & flow. Runs happen. Flotsam you’re hoping gets taken between your picks doesn’t. Things that seem predictable on paper in Mid-August so often aren’t when you’re sitting down to draft a real team in a competitive league. I don’t think that’s news to most folks here, but it doesn’t come up a lot In these discussions & it’s important perspective. 

I’ve never had a draft go exactly “as-planned”. My best drafts are ones that come to me. I have an idea of what / who I want by round, but I let myself improvise as things unfold. 

I’ll keep mocking & see if I can find that combo of players I’d be comfortable with by taking a TE in the 2-3-4 rounds to make a lineup I’d trust over the course of a season. I’m that not high on anything I've come up with so far. They haven’t been terrible teams,  they’re just not as balanced as I’d like. 

Maybe that’s the bigger topic here. How much of the way you draft is for comfort & how much is for speed, to paraphrase an old expression.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kelce is worth a first-round pick in TE-required leagues. Once you get past the elite tier (this year, probably Kelce and Kittle) the drop-off is pretty fast and you may not be getting much for your pick. That's why the elite TEs are so valuable; the difference between Kelce and Waller is way larger than the difference between, say, DeVante Adams and Joe Mixon vs. AJ Brown or Chris Carson. 

he may well be. But you only have 1 TE to start, unlike RB where you usually start 2, or WR where you often start 3, plus o-flex. 

so 1 TE vs 6 roster slots + BYEs.

So to expand on your point, I agree it’s a 1:1.  the TE/QB is a trade-off for the WR/RB (or WR/WR or RB/RB, depending how you draft from there)

But the downstream effect of that is RB2-3 and WR2-3 (or some combo) will also suffer.  Factoring that in, is the advantage from Kelce over Waller still worth it when you’re potentially also losing points at 4 other roster positions for taking Kelce? 

Maybe I’m missing something. It is past my bedtime. lol