#### Birdnals

##### Footballguy

I broke the players down into two groups, those who finished with a points-per-game average higher than their season average (momentum group) and those who did not (non-momentum group). For the following season, the average point total of those who finished with momentum was 125 vs. 121 for those without momentum. A two-sample t-test revealed that from this dataset, a randomly selected player from the momentum group had a 31% chance of having a better fantasy season the following year than those who not in the momentum group.

A nearly one in three chance of having a better season seems to support the idea of momentum. Now the question is, how much of a better season? Once again, the two-sample t-test comes in handy. I tested the odds of a player from the momentum group having a 1, 2, and 3 point per game advantage over those from the non-momentum group. The results: a momentum player had a measly 3.5% chance of a 1 point-per-game advantage over the non-momentum one, a 0.016% chance of having a 2 points-per-game advantage, and a whopping 0.000000000754% chance of a 3 point-per-game advantage. Needless to say, I stopped there.

I think what is perhaps most sobering is the fact that out of the 148 players who finished with momentum, only 59 of them had a better season the following year when compared to the season they finished strongly (40%). Meanwhile, out of the group finishing without momentum, 34% had a better season the following year. This is hardly convincing in support of momentum leading to a better following season.

While I was expecting to find support of momentum, this information is just as valuable to fantasy players. Relying too heavily on momentum, or relying on it at all, is not a winning play. Does it exist? Maybe, but we don’t have any evidence here to support it. And even if it does exist, it appears to be so minute to the point of be insignificant. I haven’t gotten the opportunity to examine other positions so it’s possible that relying on momentum is just a bad play for RBs. So just remember, as you get ready to rank your RBs, use extreme caution when looking at end-of-the-season momentum. Maybe I'm missing something here but the evidence seems pretty damning: use caution when relying on end-of-the season momentum when ranking and drafting your players.