Entering the football season would you rather have (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

My opinion would be it would be better to have quantity over quality simply going with the assumption that injuries happen.

Now, you can tell by the poll that I didnt include whether or not you have those RBs handcuffed. I think for the poll we can assume you do have the handcuffs, though the RBs backups are far from as talented as the starters.

Also, I have not mentioned anything about bye-weeks. For this poll, assume you will have a far less competent replacement for your top 10 RBs.

Im not sure if this turns out to be a simple math question. Meaning, the answer comes down to the difference from the top 10 to the 15-25's. I would guess this would only be an opinion on how risk adverse you are going into the season.

EDIT: Thanks for the replies. I should have been more specific. The rankings are based on going into the season. Assume you can only start 2 RBs.

Thoughts?

 

[jurb26]

It probably depends a great deal on where in that top 10 the guys you have are. I mean if I were to have RBs 1 and 2 then this is a rather easy poll question to answer. Ir it were like RBs 8 and 10, well then I guess that changes things a great deal.

 

[JohnnyU]

If my league can start 4 RBs, and it's not a PPR league, and WRs and TEs don't get other scoring advantages over RBs, I'd rather have RBs ranked 15,16,17, and 18, over RBs ranked #9 and 10.

 

[Musesboy]

Firstly, how are you deciding which RBs are in the top ten? Is it done by current consensus ranking? If that is the case, I might have a different opinion on some of them so that would have to be taken into account.

Injuries do happen and RBs are more susceptible than receivers. If I were high on some of the four ranked 15-25, I would think that was the best option. But if the two top ten players included one that I ranked in the top five, I might change my mind.

By holding four in the 15-25 range it may be possible to get top ten production by playing the matchups against weak run defenses. All four might actually finish in the top ten if it is done by current ranking.

I haven't voted. Unless I have names, I can't decide.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It probably depends a great deal on where in that top 10 the guys you have are. I mean if I were to have RBs 1 and 2 then this is a rather easy poll question to answer. Ir it were like RBs 8 and 10, well then I guess that changes things a great deal.

 

[MLBrandow]

Well, by nature of the question, it's implying that you're drafting around the turn and a top-10 RB gets to the 2nd round. So, something like this is probably what he's asking:

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.20 1.01 1.03 00.45 51

2. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.34 1.01 1.03 00.72 50

3. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.51 1.01 1.04 00.64 51

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.41 1.03 1.07 00.69 46

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.05.30 1.04 1.08 00.96 46

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.07.00 1.04 1.11 01.65 48

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.07.08 1.04 1.10 01.32 48

8. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.12 1.05 2.02 02.08 49

9. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.09.31 1.04 2.01 01.73 49

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.10.73 1.06 2.03 01.98 49

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.71 1.07 2.08 02.70 48

12. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.02.71 1.06 2.11 03.24 49

13. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 2.02.91 1.10 2.12 03.52 47

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.15 1.11 3.07 04.30 47

15. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.09.72 2.01 3.08 04.59 47

16. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.11.33 2.02 3.08 04.47 49

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.02.59 1.03 4.06 07.46 49

18. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.09 2.03 4.11 05.55 47

19. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.08.06 2.02 4.11 06.06 49

20. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.09.71 3.01 5.02 05.41 48

21. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.09.89 2.06 4.12 06.78 46

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.31 2.06 5.12 07.29 48

23. Tatum Bell RB DEN 4.06.07 3.02 5.07 07.19 46

24. DeShaun Foster RB CAR 4.06.32 2.12 5.11 06.94 47

25. Corey Dillon RB NEP 4.08.34 3.08 5.10 06.37 44

I voted 4 15-25, but I think I'd rather take the two top-10.

That said, the reason I like RB, ___, ___, RB or even waiting until the 5th to grab my second is because there's so many great low-risk values in the early-mid rounds.

Good question though.

 

[On The Rocks]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10. So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10. so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

 

[radballs]

Too many league variables (such as roster sizes and starting lineups) to answer the question accurately.

 

[Chase Stuart]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10. So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10. so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

 

[Musesboy]

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

I can't answer this 100% accurately because I don't know which rankings we would use to decide those in the top 15-25. But there is usually a big correlation between the rankings and the standings from the previous year. Using that over the last six years, here are top ten players that finished 15th or higher the previous season:

2005

Larry Johnson (previous year 26th)

Jordan (43rd)

T Jones (19th)

2004

Martin (18th)

R Johnson (19th)

Westbrook (20th)

Dillon (44th)

McGahee (unranked)

2003

Edge (24th)

2002

Garner (17th)

George (19th)

Henry (28th)

Portis (rookie)

McAllister (unranked)

2001

Dillon (17th)

R Williams (18th)

Holmes (34th)

A Smith (45th)

Alexander (54th)

Tomlinson (rookie)

2000

R Smith (23rd)

F Taylor (27th)

M Anderson (rookie)

A Green (unranked)

A few of those might have been ranked in the top ten of course.

 

[On The Rocks]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10.  So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10.  so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

i suppose that is where being a "Shark" comes in.

 

[Chase Stuart]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10. So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10. so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

i suppose that is where being a "Shark" comes in.

 

[JayMan]

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

I can't answer this 100% accurately because I don't know which rankings we would use to decide those in the top 15-25. But there is usually a big correlation between the rankings and the standings from the previous year. Using that over the last six years, here are top ten players that finished 15th or higher the previous season:

2005

Larry Johnson (previous year 26th)

Jordan (43rd)

T Jones (19th)

2004

Martin (18th)

R Johnson (19th)

Westbrook (20th)

Dillon (44th)

McGahee (unranked)

2003

Edge (24th)

2002

Garner (17th)

George (19th)

Henry (28th)

Portis (rookie)

McAllister (unranked)

2001

Dillon (17th)

R Williams (18th)

Holmes (34th)

A Smith (45th)

Alexander (54th)

Tomlinson (rookie)

2000

R Smith (23rd)

F Taylor (27th)

M Anderson (rookie)

A Green (unranked)

A few of those might have been ranked in the top ten of course.

I can see your point here Musesboy... but I think the question is in regards to "this year's rankings - from projections" rather than "last year's ranking"...I would imagine that LJordan was one of the 4 15-25 guys you could have had in '05 - and not a guy with a 43 ranking...

As Radballs and jurb said... there are too many variables to take into account to answer wisely... starting requirements? Top10 is 1 and 3 or 8 and 10?...

I answered 2 from top10 - since usually studs win you a championship - but the question is vague...

 

[Musesboy]

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

I can't answer this 100% accurately because I don't know which rankings we would use to decide those in the top 15-25. But there is usually a big correlation between the rankings and the standings from the previous year. Using that over the last six years, here are top ten players that finished 15th or higher the previous season:

2005

Larry Johnson (previous year 26th)

Jordan (43rd)

T Jones (19th)

2004

Martin (18th)

R Johnson (19th)

Westbrook (20th)

Dillon (44th)

McGahee (unranked)

2003

Edge (24th)

2002

Garner (17th)

George (19th)

Henry (28th)

Portis (rookie)

McAllister (unranked)

2001

Dillon (17th)

R Williams (18th)

Holmes (34th)

A Smith (45th)

Alexander (54th)

Tomlinson (rookie)

2000

R Smith (23rd)

F Taylor (27th)

M Anderson (rookie)

A Green (unranked)

A few of those might have been ranked in the top ten of course.

I can see your point here Musesboy... but I think the question is in regards to "this year's rankings - from projections" rather than "last year's ranking"...I would imagine that LJordan was one of the 4 15-25 guys you could have had in '05 - and not a guy with a 43 ranking...

As Radballs and jurb said... there are too many variables to take into account to answer wisely... starting requirements? Top10 is 1 and 3 or 8 and 10?...

I answered 2 from top10 - since usually studs win you a championship - but the question is vague...

Yep. I don't have the rankings from the last six years so I used the closest thing I had. Most projections are very closely based on last year's performance. There will be changes of course as players return from injury or get promoted.Just to highlight how close the correlation is, eight of the current top ten ranked RBs finished in the top ten last year. Jackson was 11th and Brown 23rd. So expectations don't change hugely and I think it was a reasonable starting point without knowing the history of how players were ranked.

 

[Musesboy]

Looking into the articles archive, I found the average magazine rankings dated August 22nd 2005. I highlighted those that made the final top ten.

For the purposes of this debate, four ranked in the top ten actually finished there compared to only one from the 15-25 range. That's only one year of course.

Rk Player Team Low High Avg

1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 1 2 1.1

2 Shaun Alexander Sea 2 3 2.2

3 Priest Holmes KC 1 8 3.5

4 Edgerrin James Ind 4 10 5.0

5 Willis McGahee Buf 3 11 6.7

6 Deuce McAllister NO 5 11 7.4

7 Domanick Davis Hou 3 18 8.2

8 Clinton Portis Was 7 12 9.4

9 Corey Dillon NE 5 18 9.7

10 Ahman Green GB 4 16 10.4

11 Jamal Lewis Bal 5 17 10.8

12 Tiki Barber NYG 6 15 11.4

13 Rudi Johnson Cin 7 16 12.3

14 Kevin Jones Det 4 16 12.7

15 Julius Jones Dal 6 16 13.0

16 LaMont Jordan Oak 12 22 16.4

17 Curtis Martin NYJ 12 21 17.0

18 Brian Westbrook Phi 15 21 17.9

19 Tatum Bell Den 3 25 19.0

20 Steven Jackson StL 16 23 19.2

21 Ronnie Brown Mia 19 26 21.9

22 Chris Brown Ten 18 32 22.8

23 Fred Taylor Jac 17 31 23.5

24 Cedric Benson Chi 20 28 24.9

25 Carnell Williams TB 20 29 25.0

26 Warrick Dunn Atl 22 31 26.5

27 Duce Staley Pit 25 34 27.8

28 J.J. Arrington Ari 22 31 28.5

29 DeShaun Foster Car 23 36 28.6

30 Kevan Barlow SF 23 33 28.9

31 Lee Suggs Cle 25 39 30.7

32 Michael Bennett Min 25 36 31.3

33 Larry Johnson KC 29 38 33.9

34 T.J. Duckett Atl 28 45 34.3

35 Jerome Bettis Pit 28 43 34.5

36 Reuben Droughns Cle 27 44 37.2

37 Thomas Jones Chi 34 46 38.5

38 Marshall Faulk StL 35 42 38.8

39 Michael Pittman TB 35 47 40.6

40 Travis Henry Ten 32 60 42.8

41 Najeh Davenport GB 35 59 44.9

42 Correll Buckhalter Phi 36 - 44.9

43 Derrick Blaylock NYJ 36 59 45.2

44 Mewelde Moore Min 34 - 46.1

45 Chester Taylor Bal 40 55 46.2

46 Eric Shelton Car 39 - 48.4

47 Frank Gore SF 41 - 49.9

48 Marcel Shipp Ari 40 - 50.4

49 Stephen Davis Car 41 - 50.7

50 Onterrio Smith Min 30 - 51.3

51 Kevin Faulk NE 41 - 51.7

52 Dominic Rhodes Ind 43 - 52.2

53 Anthony Thomas Dal 38 - 54.6

54 Jesse Chatman SD 49 - 55.8

55 LaBrandon Toefield Jac 47 - 55.9

56 Ladell Betts Was 37 - 56.0

57 Nick Goings Car 50 - 56.1

58 Chris Perry Cin 48 - 56.5

59 Quentin Griffin Den 44 - 56.8

60 Greg Jones Jac 45 - 56.8

61 Moe Williams Min 49 - 56.9

62 Antowain Smith NO 50 - 57.2

63 Mike Anderson Den 50 - 58.1

 

[wannabee]

In general, I prefer quality to quantity. I feel like I can either draft or trade for better players than the RBs in the RB15 range.

For example, I will take two top Rbs, and draft a Gado late, meaning a better WR in early rounds than a bunch of quantity.

 

[SSOG]

I voted two top 10 RBs without hesitating. First off, I was assuming that by "top 10" and "15-25" you meant either two average RBs within the group (i.e. RBs 4 and 6, and RBs 18, 19, 21, and 22), or you meant evenly spread (i.e. RB 1/2/3 paired with RB 8/9/10, and RBs 15, 18, 22, and 25). In both of those, I would much rather have the first set. Another advantage is that it's nice to have talent concentrated, because that frees up more roster spots for other players.

I was also operating under the assumption that this was an "All Other Things Equal" poll, meaning I would have the exact same WR/QB/TE/PK/Def either way. In that case, again, I like to focus my talent to free up roster spots, and also, a few top producers are worth a lot more than a ton of average producers (i.e. from a VBD standpoint last year, Larry Johnson alone was probably worth a dozen or more RB24s).

After reading the thread, though, I realize that you're talking about PRESEASON top-10 or top15-25. I thought this was a question of if we KNEW where they'd finish. Given the uncertainty, I'd probably vote the 15-25 range, just because if you have more darts to throw, you've got more chances to hit the bullseye.

 

[JAA]

Thanks for the replies. I should have been more specific. The rankings are based on going into the season. Assume you can only start 2 RBs.

 

[JAA]

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

I can't answer this 100% accurately because I don't know which rankings we would use to decide those in the top 15-25. But there is usually a big correlation between the rankings and the standings from the previous year. Using that over the last six years, here are top ten players that finished 15th or higher the previous season:

2005

Larry Johnson (previous year 26th)

Jordan (43rd)

T Jones (19th)

2004

Martin (18th)

R Johnson (19th)

Westbrook (20th)

Dillon (44th)

McGahee (unranked)

2003

Edge (24th)

2002

Garner (17th)

George (19th)

Henry (28th)

Portis (rookie)

McAllister (unranked)

2001

Dillon (17th)

R Williams (18th)

Holmes (34th)

A Smith (45th)

Alexander (54th)

Tomlinson (rookie)

2000

R Smith (23rd)

F Taylor (27th)

M Anderson (rookie)

A Green (unranked)

A few of those might have been ranked in the top ten of course.

I can see your point here Musesboy... but I think the question is in regards to "this year's rankings - from projections" rather than "last year's ranking"...I would imagine that LJordan was one of the 4 15-25 guys you could have had in '05 - and not a guy with a 43 ranking...

As Radballs and jurb said... there are too many variables to take into account to answer wisely... starting requirements? Top10 is 1 and 3 or 8 and 10?...

I answered 2 from top10 - since usually studs win you a championship - but the question is vague...

There is certainly a difference between having RB's1 and 2 or 9 and 10. However, assume this is all predraft. Assume it will be random on which 1-10 you will get and equally random on the 15-25's.

 

[JayMan]

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

I can't answer this 100% accurately because I don't know which rankings we would use to decide those in the top 15-25. But there is usually a big correlation between the rankings and the standings from the previous year. Using that over the last six years, here are top ten players that finished 15th or higher the previous season:

2005

Larry Johnson (previous year 26th)

Jordan (43rd)

T Jones (19th)

2004

Martin (18th)

R Johnson (19th)

Westbrook (20th)

Dillon (44th)

McGahee (unranked)

2003

Edge (24th)

2002

Garner (17th)

George (19th)

Henry (28th)

Portis (rookie)

McAllister (unranked)

2001

Dillon (17th)

R Williams (18th)

Holmes (34th)

A Smith (45th)

Alexander (54th)

Tomlinson (rookie)

2000

R Smith (23rd)

F Taylor (27th)

M Anderson (rookie)

A Green (unranked)

A few of those might have been ranked in the top ten of course.

I can see your point here Musesboy... but I think the question is in regards to "this year's rankings - from projections" rather than "last year's ranking"...I would imagine that LJordan was one of the 4 15-25 guys you could have had in '05 - and not a guy with a 43 ranking...

As Radballs and jurb said... there are too many variables to take into account to answer wisely... starting requirements? Top10 is 1 and 3 or 8 and 10?...

I answered 2 from top10 - since usually studs win you a championship - but the question is vague...

Yep. I don't have the rankings from the last six years so I used the closest thing I had. Most projections are very closely based on last year's performance. There will be changes of course as players return from injury or get promoted.Just to highlight how close the correlation is, eight of the current top ten ranked RBs finished in the top ten last year. Jackson was 11th and Brown 23rd. So expectations don't change hugely and I think it was a reasonable starting point without knowing the history of how players were ranked.

Interesting indeed...From this - I looked at every RB season since 1996 - and using FBG scoring... I ranked the players to see who was in the top10 - if it was a repeat (i.e. top10 in year n-1) and if it was a 3peat (i.e. top10 in year n-1 and year n-2)...

From this, historically, we can see that 44% of "last year top10" will remain in the top10 for this year... and only 24% of "last two years top10" will remain in the top10... showing the "turnover ratio" of RBs eliteness...

This means that, historically, only 4 or 5 of the top10 finishers in '05 will repeat in '06... (see the liste below) - interesting enough I would say

We all know that we can't expect that history will repeat itself - but to ignore it would be unwise... in my opinion...

Obvisouly, this information is skewed - if a rookie, ala Edgerrin James in '99, finishes in the top10 - he couldn't possibly be in the top10 in '98 nor in '97 (hence - no repeat or 3peat)... but this as to be part of the study - who said Bush/Addai can't be top10 in '06?

Anyhow, for those interested... here is the data (to be pasted in a csv file)

name;year;Fpts;Rk;repeat;3peat;Shaun Alexander;2005;363;1;yes;yes;Larry Johnson;2005;335;2;no;no;LaDainian Tomlinson;2005;316;3;yes;yes;Tiki Barber;2005;305;4;yes;no;Edgerrin James;2005;268;5;yes;yes;Clinton Portis;2005;243;6;no;no;Rudi Johnson;2005;226;7;yes;no;Lamont Jordan;2005;224;8;no;no;Thomas Jones;2005;201;9;no;no;Mike Anderson;2005;200;10;no;no;Shaun Alexander;2004;306;1;yes;yes;Tiki Barber;2004;299;2;no;no;LaDainian Tomlinson;2004;286;3;yes;yes;Curtis Martin;2004;278;4;no;no;Domanick Davis;2004;261;5;no;no;Edgerrin James;2004;257;6;yes;no;Corey Dillon;2004;251;7;no;no;Rudi Johnson;2004;225;8;no;no;Willis McGahee;2004;207;9;no;no;Brian Westbrook;2004;205;10;no;no;Priest Holmes;2003;373;1;yes;yes;Ahman Green;2003;345;2;no;no;LaDainian Tomlinson;2003;343;3;yes;yes;Jamal Lewis;2003;311;4;no;no;Clinton Portis;2003;274;5;yes;no;Shaun Alexander;2003;269;6;yes;yes;Deuce McAllister;2003;263;7;yes;no;Fred Taylor;2003;236;8;no;no;Ricky Williams;2003;232;9;yes;yes;Edgerrin James;2003;221;10;no;no;Priest Holmes;2002;372;1;yes;no;Ricky Williams;2002;323;2;yes;no;LaDainian Tomlinson;2002;307;3;yes;no;Clinton Portis;2002;289;4;no;no;Shaun Alexander;2002;271;5;yes;no;Deuce McAllister;2002;270;6;no;no;Tiki Barber;2002;264;7;no;no;Travis Henry;2002;258;8;no;no;Charlie Garner;2002;256;9;no;no;Eddie George;2002;226;10;no;no;Marshall Faulk;2001;340;1;yes;yes;Priest Holmes;2001;276;2;no;no;Ahman Green;2001;264;3;yes;no;Shaun Alexander;2001;262;4;no;no;Curtis Martin;2001;247;5;yes;yes;Corey Dillon;2001;232;6;no;no;LaDainian Tomlinson;2001;220;7;no;no;Ricky Williams;2001;217;8;no;no;Antowain Smith;2001;212;9;no;no;Stephen Davis;2001;193;10;no;no;Marshall Faulk;2000;374;1;yes;yes;Edgerrin James;2000;338;2;yes;no;Eddie George;2000;292;3;yes;no;Mike Anderson;2000;255;4;no;no;Ahman Green;2000;251;5;no;no;Fred Taylor;2000;247;6;no;no;Robert Smith;2000;246;7;no;no;Ricky Watters;2000;239;8;yes;yes;Charlie Garner;2000;238;9;yes;no;Curtis Martin;2000;237;10;yes;yes;Edgerrin James;1999;315;1;no;no;Marshall Faulk;1999;314;2;yes;yes;Eddie George;1999;254;3;no;no;Stephen Davis;1999;253;4;no;no;Emmitt Smith;1999;229;5;yes;no;Dorsey Levens;1999;220;6;no;no;Charlie Garner;1999;212;7;no;no;Curtis Martin;1999;202;8;yes;no;Ricky Watters;1999;201;9;yes;yes;Duce Staley;1999;192;10;no;no;Terrell Davis;1998;360;1;yes;yes;Jamal Anderson;1998;312;2;no;no;Marshall Faulk;1998;282;3;yes;no;Fred Taylor;1998;266;4;no;no;Garrison Hearst;1998;264;5;no;no;Emmitt Smith;1998;240;6;no;no;Curtis Martin;1998;219;7;no;no;Robert Edwards;1998;216;8;no;no;Ricky Watters;1998;215;9;yes;yes;Barry Sanders;1998;202;10;yes;yes;Barry Sanders;1997;319;1;yes;;Terrell Davis;1997;293;2;yes;;Dorsey Levens;1997;252;3;no;;Jerome Bettis;1997;231;4;yes;;Napoleon Kaufman;1997;217;5;no;;Karim Abdul-Jabbar;1997;211;6;yes;;Marshall Faulk;1997;200;7;no;;Corey Dillon;1997;198;8;no;;Ricky Watters;1997;197;9;yes;;Robert Smith;1997;188;10;no;;Terry Allen;1996;280;1;;;Terrell Davis;1996;274;2;;;Ricky Watters;1996;263;3;;;Curtis Martin;1996;250;4;;;Barry Sanders;1996;236;5;;;Emmitt Smith;1996;235;6;;;Jerome Bettis;1996;221;7;;;Eddie George;1996;203;8;;;Karim Abdul-Jabbar;1996;191;9;;;Jamal Anderson;1996;188;10;;;

 

[videoguy505]

I'm going with 2 top-10, but I'm biased because I have Larry Johnson and Rudi Johnson on my squad. I will only have to worry about the bye weeks if all goes well, although I do plan on having a suitable RB2 on the bench in case of diaster. With 4 RB2s, I'd be working pretty hard at figuring out who to start every week.

 

[H.K.]

Too many league variables (such as roster sizes and starting lineups) to answer the question accurately.

 

[LHUCKS]

Too many league variables (such as roster sizes and starting lineups) to answer the question accurately.

 

[tri-man 47]

Take the studs, and play for a number of solid wins. If they have an off week, hope that (a) your remaining players carry you, or (b) your opponent stumbles as well. Striving to be mediocre isn't the way to win championships. IMO

 

[On The Rocks]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10.  So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10.  so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

i suppose that is where being a "Shark" comes in.

what's the confusion? the point is a "shark" can fnd at least one or two RB's ranked between #15-25 in the preseason that will finish the season in the Top 10.

 

[SSOG]

for me it depends on when you make this decision.

i'd go with 4 of the 15-25.

typically only 4 of the top 10 RB's in the preseason actually finish in the top 10. So i would go with 4 of 15-25 and expect that at least two of them would finish in the top 10. so by default I would finish with 2 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15-25.

How many of the 15-25 typically actually finish in the top 10?

i suppose that is where being a "Shark" comes in.

what's the confusion? the point is a "shark" can fnd at least one or two RB's ranked between #15-25 in the preseason that will finish the season in the Top 10.

Not consistantly.A "shark" can find at least one or two RBs ranked between #15-25 in the preseason that are MORE LIKELY to finish the season in the top 10, but consistantly repeating those results is another matter entirely. Even around here- a lot of "sharks" suggested that Mike Anderson was a great value play last season in the 6th, 5th, or even 4th rounds... and an equal or greater number of "sharks" suggested that those other "sharks" were idiots. Everyone's rankings will differ on every player, even among "sharks". Heck, just look at all the ranking variation between the FBG staffers.

 

[slayer666]

2 top 10 RBs

 

[Biabreakable]

Too many league variables (such as roster sizes and starting lineups) to answer the question accurately.

True. But a copout answer.JAA clarified that this is a start 2 Rb league and that these are preseason rankings or perceptions of which Rbs are most likely to finish top 10 (which is an arbitrary number).

Given the facts about the 40-50% turnover of Rbs that are top 10 the previous year and fail to perform to that level the following year. I would each and every time prefer to have 4 quality Rbs who could finish top 10 but have issues that make that questionable.

I am working from the assumption that I can choose from similarly ranked players and get the ones I think will outperform thier ranking. Then I saw JAA say randomly chosen. This gives me about equal chance of having one or more of 4 Rb perform better than thier ranking as I have of 2 Rbs ranked top 10 not performing up to thier ranking. 4>2 so I like my odds with the 4 Rbs better.

On top of this 4 Rbs give me more insurance against injuries, byes and matchups that I can exploit. And gives me more value that I can use to trade with than 2 Rbs would.

 

[Liquid Smoke]

hard to say, both would probably gain you around same amount of yardage and stuff

but i'd probably take the 2 top 10 rb's

 

[JAA]

I think some of the math is now done for us. For each top 10RB there is ~50/50 shot that they dont finish in the top 10. That said, we should assume 1 of our 2 top 10 will finish out of the top 10.

What we dont know are the chances 15-25 will finish in the top 10 or below top 25.

 

[Crippler]

Can I choose 1 top 10 and 2 of the others.

I agree with the variable part. I lean today towards RB/WR/WR and than some combo of RB/WR in the rounds after. But it depends on the rules, who is left when I draft etc. I could go RB/RB with the right guy. I could go RB/.WR/RB. If picking on the turn I could go WR/WR/WR/RB etc.

I think I just confused myself now