Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
Both of these guys are is similar situations. Wilford has a better QB. Which player has a better upside for a keeper league?
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Evans or Wilford? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Limp Dogg Bizkits
- Start date
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
I wouldn't be so quick to anoint Wilford the starting job. Rankings still indicate Matt Jones having a higher worth. That said, I like Evans a little more here. JAX is more apt to spread it around while Lee becomes an even bigger feature WR.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
That is what I was thinking as well.
I am in a keeper league and was offered the #3 pick and Evans for Wilford and Droughns.
I figure that it is a pretty even deal. I might also get Mason thrown in.
I am in a keeper league and was offered the #3 pick and Evans for Wilford and Droughns.
I figure that it is a pretty even deal. I might also get Mason thrown in.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Man that's really a tough decision to make! Evans for Wilford is fine, you're coming out slightly ahead in that swap (but not by much). However, the #3 pick for Droughns may not be in your favor. Droughns ran with some serious heart and intensity last season. The Browns are turning it around so he could be primed to be a nice keeper for the next few years. 50/50 shot he breaks top 10 within the next 4 years. At #3 Bush is gone so you're really looking at Maroney or Addai depending on how things shake down. I like Droughns more than Addai so you could end up getting screwed if Maroney goes #2. That said I do like Maroney better over the long haul than Droughns. If you can get Maroney with that pick than it's a good deal.
Nucular George
Footballguy
Keeper or dynasty? Big difference in valuing that #3 pick.
-OZ-
Footballguy
The "should I make this trade" part of the thread is easy IMO.
DWill or Maroney > Droughns, if you're looking long term, Evans > Wilford IMO.
Wilford will certainly start, but it's probably a 1a/1b situation this year, until Jones develops into a consistent threat. I'll take Evans, fairly easily.
DWill or Maroney > Droughns, if you're looking long term, Evans > Wilford IMO.
Wilford will certainly start, but it's probably a 1a/1b situation this year, until Jones develops into a consistent threat. I'll take Evans, fairly easily.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
It is a dynasty league. I have the #2 and #6 picks in the league. I will get Moroney with the #2. My team is bad, so I am looking to build towards the future and hope to be pretty good againd in 2-3 years.
Sorry that this had became a "who should I trade" but it has and I don't feel like moving it to the other board.
He just emailed me back. I am thinking about passing all together now. Here is his ideas:
""Not bad, let me make a couple counter offers to you.
1) Droughns and Wilford and #6 pick for Evans, McCardell, J.P. Losman and the number 3 pick
2) Droughns and #6 pick for Evans, McCardell and #3 pick
3) Wilford and #6 pick for Evans and #3 pick
I don't want to not have a 1st round pick in the draft. There are a couple players I am real interested in that won't be there in the 2nd round. So the 6th pick would have to be included somewhere. If I took the other trade offer from the other player (wr and late round pick for #3 and Mason) I would still get a 1st round pick and upgrade my WR.
On the trade you just offered me I think of it this way......McNair will be the QB in Bal so Mason's numbers should go up and he would be equal to if not better that Wilford. So the trade is basicly Lee and #3 for Droughns. I like Droughns but don't think he is worth the #3 slot w/o anything else thrown in (like a draft pick). If I can get Linerent or Young both franchise QB's then it's not worth the trade for me to give up #3 for Droughns. ""
I guess that I should do the #3 option as I move up 3 spots in the draft, and get Evans who I think might be better anyway.
Sorry that this had became a "who should I trade" but it has and I don't feel like moving it to the other board.
He just emailed me back. I am thinking about passing all together now. Here is his ideas:
""Not bad, let me make a couple counter offers to you.
1) Droughns and Wilford and #6 pick for Evans, McCardell, J.P. Losman and the number 3 pick
2) Droughns and #6 pick for Evans, McCardell and #3 pick
3) Wilford and #6 pick for Evans and #3 pick
I don't want to not have a 1st round pick in the draft. There are a couple players I am real interested in that won't be there in the 2nd round. So the 6th pick would have to be included somewhere. If I took the other trade offer from the other player (wr and late round pick for #3 and Mason) I would still get a 1st round pick and upgrade my WR.
On the trade you just offered me I think of it this way......McNair will be the QB in Bal so Mason's numbers should go up and he would be equal to if not better that Wilford. So the trade is basicly Lee and #3 for Droughns. I like Droughns but don't think he is worth the #3 slot w/o anything else thrown in (like a draft pick). If I can get Linerent or Young both franchise QB's then it's not worth the trade for me to give up #3 for Droughns. ""
I guess that I should do the #3 option as I move up 3 spots in the draft, and get Evans who I think might be better anyway.
Last edited by a moderator:
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Rotowire: Matt Jones is the favorite to take over Jimmy Smith's "X" position as the Jags No. 1 receiver
Fullback Fro
yesno
I'm not so sure Reggie Williams is not ahead of Wilford. The Wilford love is a little over the top these days.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Well, 7 TD receptions in his second season was pretty impressive in my book, all while Jimmy Smith was the #1 option.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
As long as JP Losman or Holcomb are part of the Buffalo offense,
I will take Wilford every day of the week.
I will take Wilford every day of the week.
Banger
Footballguy
This is a layup for me on the other side of the equation. Wilford had 3 50+ yard receiving games last year compared to 7 for Evans. Evans had 92 targets compared to 74 for Wilford. I just don't get all the love, ya he might have some upside but he has risk screaming all over him. Who knows how it's going to breakdown between Williams, Wilford, Jones, veteran FA/trade? while Evans has no one to compete with. I'll take the guy with less competition and more consistency.
Full Disclosure: I own both Evans & Wilford on the same dynasty team.Needless to say, I'm fascinated by the response, but this is hardly a "layup" or deserves scorn as being unbelievable for being questioned.
Last year, as the #2 WR on their respective teams, Wilford & Evans both put up comparable numbers. Evans had 48 catches for 743 yds & 7 TDs. Wilford had 41 catches for 681 yds & 7 TDs.
Now they are both moving up the food chain. Evans figures to be the clear #1 WR in BUF. Last season, the Bills' #1 WR, Moulds, put up 81 catches for 816 yds & 4 TDs. Wilford looks like he will be a #1a/#1b WR in JAX, where Smith as the #1 WR put up 70 catches for 1023 yds & 6 TDs.
If Evans moves up to Moulds' spot, he'll be responsible for 81 catches. At his rate from last year, that would put his production at 1254 yds & 12 TDs. But Moulds last year didn't come anywhere close to those numbers. So let's average Moulds' numbers last year with Evans' projected numbers at that rate, and we get:
Evans 81 catches/1035 yds/8TDs.
Given that BUF only threw for 2852 yds & 18 TDs last year, those are reasonable numbers for the #1 WR there given that their passing offense hasn't gotten significantly foreseeably better.
Now let's move to Jacksonville. JAX threw for 3352 yds & 21 TDs last season - so they were more prolific passing the ball than BUF. We have a different situation in that there are WRs on the roster capable of divvying up Smith's numbers, by early appearances. So we need to divide up Smith's 70 catches/1023 yds/6 TDs between 2 primary & 1 secondary WR. Say the 2 primaries get 37.5% (3/8ths) each (not comfortable with either 35% each as too little & 40% each as too much), that would add 26 catches/384 yds/2 TDs to Wilfords' numbers from last year. That puts him at:
Wilford 67 catches/1065 yds/9 TDs
That seems reasonable & certainly isn't a huge stretch from Wilford's numbers from last year. It also allows for a larger WR role by either Jones and/or Williams also - which figures to happen.
So if we compare the 2 WRs, there not a whole lot of difference between them as projected above. Evans gets 151.5 FF pts and Wilford gets 160.5 in a non-ppr league, and Evans gets 232.5 and Wilford 227.5 in a ppr league. Fascinatingly enough, that puts them both in the Jimmy Smith-Reggie Wayne-Hines Ward range from last season - about #17 WR in NFL in yardage & #11 WR range in the NFL for TDs in the Boldin-McCardell-Burress range.
I'd say these two guys project out a lot closer than you 2 seem to think, and both project out to pretty solid #2 FF WRs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's a really good post, but are you accounting for the TEs and RBs? Seems to me that the JAX TEs (M Lewis especially) and RBs will take significantly more receiving yardage than the Buffalo TE/RB will. I would guess Reg/Drew/Pearman/Lewis will get more than 1/4 of the yardage, not to mention any other players taking some yardage.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
Great post.So in other words, it is a no brainer to trade Wilford and the #6 for Evans and the #3.
Banger
Footballguy
Good post. Unfortunately things don't stay the same season to season and I don't necessarily see Jimmy Smith's #'s being a piece of pie that can be split evenly amongst the remaing wr's. Jimmy Smith was the #1 wr on the offense for a reason and just because Jones, Wilford, etc is annointed the #1 doesn't mean that they will pick up his yards. I'm pretty certain that they won't and Matt Jones alluded to in Joe's email (yesterday or today) so I think it's pretty conceivable that their yardage goes down next year. Even if they can split the pie what's to say that Jones/Williams/Mercedes doesn't take a bigger bite. My point is that Evans has no one to compete with and the Bills yardage can't get worse while Wilford's offense IMO will produce less yardage (due to the loss of Smith) and he'll have more competition (than Evans). That's why a choice between the two I would take Evans every time.
Thanks. I based the analysis on last year's WR numbers, which account for catches/yds/TDs by themselves through actual production. I don't expect gigantic numbers from Marcedes right away in JAX - TEs seem to take a bit to get up to speed in the NFL unless they are real special, and Lewis is going to be spending a lot more effort on his blocking than he did at UCLA if he's going to get the dominant proportion of the downs on offense.I think Lewis will be a decent pro, but he'll be in a learning curve this season.
Good point, and you could very well be right. But Evans has virtually only Roscoe Parrish to take the heat off of him instead of having Moulds for Dbs to keep an eye on. It has to be factored in that BUF has significantly less talent @ WR overall losing Moulds and teams conceivably could scheme to negate BUF's passing game by taking Evans' out of the game with constant double teams - or at least reducing his impact, making the team 1-dimensional on O.
Banger
Footballguy
I agree that Evans could struggle with the #1 role and for that reason I'm not tremendously high on him this year but in a comparison with Wilford I'd definitely take Evans. Just my opinion though and it will probably change as we see how roles are adjusted, players are added and teams progress through training camp. As things look now I probably won't have either one on my team and I'll end up grabbing Moose/Mason later and get better production.
doomsdaydoc
Footballguy
Given that this is a dynasty league- Evans may have more upside. I think he is more talented than wilford and Losman will not be given more than just this season to show if he has the goods. If not, they will probably replace him. In the meantime, I do like Droughns and the fact that they did not draft a RB indicates that they like him too.
A lot of number crunching and assumptions going on in this thread, but if you boil it down to talent, it's Evans and it's not close.
I saw a ton of Wilford in college, but not as much in the pros. VaTech did not throw much, but he seemed to be able to make plays in the passing game when they called his number. I had him earmarked as a sleeper pick prior to his proday. The guy ran a 4.8. He's SLOOOOOWWW. He makes molasses look fast. He does not have the tools to be a #1 in my opinion.
The guys is pretty good at catching a fade route/jump ball down the sideline if he has man up or going over the middle where it's wide open. But, he does not possess the full route repertoire and does not have the speed to press corners. If there are some Jax homers out there, I would be interested to hear your take on him and your observations at the pro level. I think if he was asked to step up into a #1 role, he would suffer from Peerless Price/Drew Bennett disorder.
I see Matt Jones as the guy in Jax and look for Marcedes Lewis to fill Jones' prior year production essentially leaving Wilford and Williams relatively flat with their prior year production and roles. I do not know that Jones will jump to 1,000 yards in year two, so we could have an ugly situation in Jax next year with 3 WRs in the 600 to 800 yard range, if Jones does need that 3rd year to break out.
Evans appears to have all the tools. It would be nice if he was a couple inches taller, but he has speed to burn. The only thing slowing him down is an inept offense, specifically at QB, but Evans should still get his, especially as the clear #1.
If it's dynasty, Evans way before Wilford. If it's redraft, still Evans, but the edge may not be as great...at least for next season.
I saw a ton of Wilford in college, but not as much in the pros. VaTech did not throw much, but he seemed to be able to make plays in the passing game when they called his number. I had him earmarked as a sleeper pick prior to his proday. The guy ran a 4.8. He's SLOOOOOWWW. He makes molasses look fast. He does not have the tools to be a #1 in my opinion.
The guys is pretty good at catching a fade route/jump ball down the sideline if he has man up or going over the middle where it's wide open. But, he does not possess the full route repertoire and does not have the speed to press corners. If there are some Jax homers out there, I would be interested to hear your take on him and your observations at the pro level. I think if he was asked to step up into a #1 role, he would suffer from Peerless Price/Drew Bennett disorder.
I see Matt Jones as the guy in Jax and look for Marcedes Lewis to fill Jones' prior year production essentially leaving Wilford and Williams relatively flat with their prior year production and roles. I do not know that Jones will jump to 1,000 yards in year two, so we could have an ugly situation in Jax next year with 3 WRs in the 600 to 800 yard range, if Jones does need that 3rd year to break out.
Evans appears to have all the tools. It would be nice if he was a couple inches taller, but he has speed to burn. The only thing slowing him down is an inept offense, specifically at QB, but Evans should still get his, especially as the clear #1.
If it's dynasty, Evans way before Wilford. If it's redraft, still Evans, but the edge may not be as great...at least for next season.
Mark Wimer
Moderator
Personally, I'd be more comfortable with Wilford than Evans, due to the settled QB situation in Jacksonville and the fact that the Jaguars have a warm weather stadium (Indy at home week 14, visit Tennessee week 15, New England at home week 16) vs. Losman/Holcomb (neither particularly impressive, IMO) and the fact that the Bills close the season by visiting N.Y. Jets week 14, then hosting Miami at home week 15 and Tennessee at home week 16) - that's a lot of potentially blustery, zero-ish New York state weather during the fantasy playoffs. As far as the target data on Evans goes - yeah, he had 92 targets last season, but only caught 48 balls (IMO, because the throws from Losman were often poor, but it still is worth keeping in mind that targets don't necessarily = quality opportunities) - he caught the same number of balls 2 years ago with only 68 targets to his credit during 2004.
I see Wilford as a better prospect to cross the 1000 yards receiving threshold, and project him at 1050-1150 yards receiving, 7-8 TDs, vs. 750-850 yards and 7-8 TDs for Evans at this early stage of the season.
If the Bills get their QB situation sorted out quickly and one of the signal callers looks strong in pre-season, then I will undoubtably revisit my projections for Evans, but right now his situation isn't conducive to being a solid fantasy starter, IMO. He's more of a fringe #3 prospect right now, in my book. Whether or not McGahee can provide a consistent threat to run the ball will also impact Evans, and that situation is as clear as mud right now with McGahee skipping "voluntary" camps. Willis McGahee Not in Attendance at Mini-camp, 5/6/06
My .02.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Wilford didn't see the field nearly as much as Evans last year. Now, if he is promoted
to the #1 WR slot, it won't even be close,
I'll take the Wilford / Leftwich combo
over Evans / JP Loserman.....
forget about it.
SSOG
Moderator
I rank the two as follows.
#1- Lee Evans.
You'll notice that Ernest Wilford doesn't make the list. That's not oversight.
First, Evans will be a bigger role of his team's offense. Second, Buffalo's passing game is far more likely to significantly improve than Jax's. Third, Evans has already proven he can do it. I guess that's mostly subjective, but after seeing his rookie campaign, I don't hesitate for a second to believe that this guy will become a star. No such belief for Wilford, who could easily become a star... and just as easily not (especially with 2 former first-rounders trying to keep him from even leaving the bench).
Then, too, there's catch%, one of my favorite stats for judging WRs. Wilford caught 54% two years ago, and 55% last year. His QB situation is stable, so I expect his catch% to remain stable (I don't expect a dip, because I've seen no evidence to suggest that losing a dominant threat on the other side of the field negatively impacts catch%). Meanwhile, Evans had 64% two years ago, and 53% last year. Again, that's a number I expect to rebound significantly. Losman might be bad... but he can't be this bad forever. Eventually, he'll either improve, or get benched in favor of someone who's not as bad.
#1- Lee Evans.
You'll notice that Ernest Wilford doesn't make the list. That's not oversight.
First, Evans will be a bigger role of his team's offense. Second, Buffalo's passing game is far more likely to significantly improve than Jax's. Third, Evans has already proven he can do it. I guess that's mostly subjective, but after seeing his rookie campaign, I don't hesitate for a second to believe that this guy will become a star. No such belief for Wilford, who could easily become a star... and just as easily not (especially with 2 former first-rounders trying to keep him from even leaving the bench).
Then, too, there's catch%, one of my favorite stats for judging WRs. Wilford caught 54% two years ago, and 55% last year. His QB situation is stable, so I expect his catch% to remain stable (I don't expect a dip, because I've seen no evidence to suggest that losing a dominant threat on the other side of the field negatively impacts catch%). Meanwhile, Evans had 64% two years ago, and 53% last year. Again, that's a number I expect to rebound significantly. Losman might be bad... but he can't be this bad forever. Eventually, he'll either improve, or get benched in favor of someone who's not as bad.
Sinrman
Footballguy
I like seeing the rise of Wilford, but overall, Evans is certainly the one with more upside right now. Even WITH the crappy QB situation in Buffalo, Evans still managed 700+ yards and 7 TDs. Down from his rookie year, but he played and started in nearly every game last season, whereas Wilford PLAYED in every game, he didn't start in every game. He'll get a chance to start every game, and will definitely put up some numbers with Smith retired. But overall, I like Evans a wee bit more...
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Losman CAN be this bad forever.Evans production hinges directly
on the success of Losman, not a good situaiton
to be in.
This is the first year Wilford
will have a full season at the #1 slot.
More passes coming his way = more fantasy points.
SSOG
Moderator
Again, if Losman continues to be this bad, Losman gets replaced. The current Coach and GM have absolutely no ties to him. They didn't draft him, he's not their guy.Also, traditionally, QBs are better in their SECOND YEAR starting than they are in their FIRST YEAR starting. Some recent examples of this... Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, pretty much every recent QB to be given the starting job.
Third, Evans has already proven he can produce with Losman at the helm. Give him a mere 20% increase in his production from last season (a paltry sum considering the increased workload he'll be seeing) and he's looking at 1,000 yards and double digit TDs.
Fourth, who says Wilford will have a full season at the #1 slot? Everything I've read says that the team wants Jones to eventually become the #1.
Fifth... as you said, more passes = more points. Losman's situation certainly hasn't GOTTEN WORSE since last season. He stands to see a much larger spike in the number of passes coming his way, too.
For Keeper/Dynasty leagues, Wilford is not even in the same universe as Evans. I would give 2 Wilfords for Evans without even blinking. I would give Wilford + my 2007 first round rookie pick for evans without blinking.
Mark Wimer
Moderator
Hmmm, I must beg to differ with you here, Bloom. Wilford has improved over his first two seasons in the NFL, rather than backsliding as a sophomore receiver (see Lee Evans as an example of backsliding sophomore receiver). Evans has an unsettled QB situation and a shaky RB situation right now (McGahee looks like he's headed for either a holdout or a major attitude problem this season). Neither guy has proven he can handle the #1 role yet, but it certainly looks to me like Wilford has a better cast working with him (Leftwich/Garrard, Matt Jones, a healthy and trim Fred Taylor + a deep RB bench behind Taylor if he falters), which will keep defenses "honest"; Evans has Andre Davis, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed (and retread Peerless Price) as his "counterparts". I absolutely am not sold on Losman (and neither is the new coaching staff, apparently)Losman Loses Lable as Starter; Losman in Limbo?; etc.
Kelly Holcomb?
:X
Players don't produce stats in a vacuum, they need talent for sure, but they also need a decent opportunity to perform. This year and during the next few years, I definitely think that Wilford has all kinds of advantages over Evans (not the least of which is the weather factor I mentioned earlier). Even if Matt Jones does eventually become a #1A receiver, I think we see a situation analogous to the best Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell years (I know that was under Coughlin) or the current Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin dynamic - there are enough balls in the air down in Jacksonville for 2 solid receivers to put up solid (but probably not elite) numbers. (22nd in completions last year (only 11 games for Leftwich - 283 completions), 21st in passing yardage (3352); 16th in completions during 2004 (14 games for Leftwich - 306 completions) and 21st in passing yardage (3315)).
SSOG
Moderator
Wait wait... losing 0 receptions, 100 yards, and 2 TDs, despite a SERIOUS drop in the quality of QB play now constitutes "BACKSLIDING"?!I was more impressed with Evans last year than I was his rookie season. He put up more or less the same numbers (call it statistical fluctuation) despite a drastically worse situation and defenses progressively adjusting more and more towards him (compared to his rookie year, where he was an unknown).Hmmm, I must beg to differ with you here, Bloom. Wilford has improved over his first two seasons in the NFL, rather than backsliding as a sophomore receiver (see Lee Evans as an example of backsliding sophomore receiver). Evans has an unsettled QB situation and a shaky RB situation right now (McGahee looks like he's headed for either a holdout or a major attitude problem this season). Neither guy has proven he can handle the #1 role yet, but it certainly looks to me like Wilford has a better cast working with him (Leftwich/Garrard, Matt Jones, a healthy and trim Fred Taylor + a deep RB bench behind Taylor if he falters), which will keep defenses "honest"; Evans has Andre Davis, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed (and retread Peerless Price) as his "counterparts". I absolutely am not sold on Losman (and neither is the new coaching staff, apparently)Losman Loses Lable as Starter; Losman in Limbo?; etc.
Kelly Holcomb?
:X
Players don't produce stats in a vacuum, they need talent for sure, but they also need a decent opportunity to perform. This year and during the next few years, I definitely think that Wilford has all kinds of advantages over Evans (not the least of which is the weather factor I mentioned earlier). Even if Matt Jones does eventually become a #1A receiver, I think we see a situation analogous to the best Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell years (I know that was under Coughlin) or the current Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin dynamic - there are enough balls in the air down in Jacksonville for 2 solid receivers to put up solid (but probably not elite) numbers. (22nd in completions last year (only 11 games for Leftwich - 283 completions), 21st in passing yardage (3352); 16th in completions during 2004 (14 games for Leftwich - 306 completions) and 21st in passing yardage (3315)).
But for dynasty leagues you have to take the long view. Evans numbers were depressed last year because of Kelly Holcomb. For some reason, Eric Moulds was the only wide receiver he looked at when he was in. Evans is already one of the ten, if not five, best deep threats in the entire league. He's not a one trick pony either. He is going to follow in Santana Moss and Steve Smith's footsteps, its just a matter a time. Wilford is a nice WR, but he's not close to Evans echelon in terms of pure talent and ability.Hmmm, I must beg to differ with you here, Bloom. Wilford has improved over his first two seasons in the NFL, rather than backsliding as a sophomore receiver (see Lee Evans as an example of backsliding sophomore receiver). Evans has an unsettled QB situation and a shaky RB situation right now (McGahee looks like he's headed for either a holdout or a major attitude problem this season). Neither guy has proven he can handle the #1 role yet, but it certainly looks to me like Wilford has a better cast working with him (Leftwich/Garrard, Matt Jones, a healthy and trim Fred Taylor + a deep RB bench behind Taylor if he falters), which will keep defenses "honest"; Evans has Andre Davis, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed (and retread Peerless Price) as his "counterparts". I absolutely am not sold on Losman (and neither is the new coaching staff, apparently)Losman Loses Lable as Starter; Losman in Limbo?; etc.
Kelly Holcomb?
:X
Players don't produce stats in a vacuum, they need talent for sure, but they also need a decent opportunity to perform. This year and during the next few years, I definitely think that Wilford has all kinds of advantages over Evans (not the least of which is the weather factor I mentioned earlier). Even if Matt Jones does eventually become a #1A receiver, I think we see a situation analogous to the best Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell years (I know that was under Coughlin) or the current Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin dynamic - there are enough balls in the air down in Jacksonville for 2 solid receivers to put up solid (but probably not elite) numbers. (22nd in completions last year (only 11 games for Leftwich - 283 completions), 21st in passing yardage (3352); 16th in completions during 2004 (14 games for Leftwich - 306 completions) and 21st in passing yardage (3315)).
The ride might be bumpy as the Buffalo offense goes through a sluggish year or three, but barring another ACL tear, Evans is destined for stardom.
EBF
Footballguy
1. WRs don't need a good QB in order to succeed. Anquan Boldin was huge with Jeff Blake at the helm. Chad Johnson excelled with Jon Kitna running things. Joey Galloway put up big numbers last year with a revolving door at QB. Maybe Evans isn't as good as these guys, but he's clearly the #1 target on his team and it's not even close. I have a hard time believing that he'll fail to exceed 1,000 yards unless he gets hurt. 2. Who says Wilford is the #1 WR in Jacksonville? Everything I've read says that Matt Jones will be taking over Jimmy Smith's role. And while Reggie Williams has been a disappointment thus far, he did improve statistically from his rookie to sophomore seasons. He's a former top ten pick and he's still only 23 years old. I wouldn't write him off just yet. You also have to factor in Marcedes Lewis. He probably won't put up monster numbers as a rookie, but he's a beast in the red zone and I fully expect him to make an impact in that area.Hmmm, I must beg to differ with you here, Bloom. Wilford has improved over his first two seasons in the NFL, rather than backsliding as a sophomore receiver (see Lee Evans as an example of backsliding sophomore receiver). Evans has an unsettled QB situation and a shaky RB situation right now (McGahee looks like he's headed for either a holdout or a major attitude problem this season). Neither guy has proven he can handle the #1 role yet, but it certainly looks to me like Wilford has a better cast working with him (Leftwich/Garrard, Matt Jones, a healthy and trim Fred Taylor + a deep RB bench behind Taylor if he falters), which will keep defenses "honest"; Evans has Andre Davis, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed (and retread Peerless Price) as his "counterparts". I absolutely am not sold on Losman (and neither is the new coaching staff, apparently)Losman Loses Lable as Starter; Losman in Limbo?; etc.
Kelly Holcomb?
:X
Players don't produce stats in a vacuum, they need talent for sure, but they also need a decent opportunity to perform. This year and during the next few years, I definitely think that Wilford has all kinds of advantages over Evans (not the least of which is the weather factor I mentioned earlier). Even if Matt Jones does eventually become a #1A receiver, I think we see a situation analogous to the best Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell years (I know that was under Coughlin) or the current Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin dynamic - there are enough balls in the air down in Jacksonville for 2 solid receivers to put up solid (but probably not elite) numbers. (22nd in completions last year (only 11 games for Leftwich - 283 completions), 21st in passing yardage (3352); 16th in completions during 2004 (14 games for Leftwich - 306 completions) and 21st in passing yardage (3315)).
I just don't see much to get excited about with Wilford. He's a marginal talent in a marginal situation. Evans is a better player and is a better bet to get a high amount of targets. This is a no-brainer.
