Experts...breakdown the worth of rookie picks (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Whats the value of these rookie draft picks...... in like players?(example 1.01 is worth a rb like Portis)So what are the top 12 rookie draft (dynasty) picks worth in player values?1.011.021.031.041.051.061.071.081.091.101.111.12

 

[coolnerd]

I know someone did this last year. I attempt to hunt down the thread.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

thx....wanted to see for this year since this years draft offer a diffrent view of talents than last year, well at the top of the draft it do.

 

[Bevo]

Be interesting to see how this goes and then compare it to something similar after the NFL draft. Edited because I misunderstood the question.

 

[Riffraff]

A similar post for values. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=148170

Would be good to see a 2005/2006 version though.

 

[coolnerd]

A similar post for values. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=148170

Would be good to see a 2005/2006 version though.

Yes, this was the one I was thinking about.

 

[-OZ-]

Just my but I'd rate this draft's picks higher than last year's.The 1.01 is probably worth a top 10 pick or arguably higher, the next 3 would be around a 2nd. Then there's a fair drop to wherever your league would draft the #10-12 QB.

 

[beto]

In January hype is rampant so it's hard to get too good a feeling on this but I would say the value of the 1.1 (Reggie Bush) is somewhere between the #11 and #16.

 

[-OZ-]

In January hype is rampant so it's hard to get too good a feeling on this but I would say the value of the 1.1 (Reggie Bush) is somewhere between the #11 and #16.

It probably should be, but you may be surprised at what the pick yields in trades.FWIW, our dynasty list:

1 - Tomlinson San Diego Chargers

2 - Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks

3- Larry Johnson Kansas City Chiefs

4 - EDGE Indianapolis Colts

5 - Steven Jackson St. Louis Rams

6 - Willis McGahee Buffalo Bills

7 - Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

8 - Lamont Jordan, Oakland Raiders

Links to 7 and the Run-off

9 - Caddillac Williams Tampa Bay Bucs

10 - Ronnie Brown Miami Dolphins

11 - Kevin Jones Detroit Lions

12 - Deuce New Orleans Saints

13 - Brian Westbrook Philadelphia Eagles

14 - Reggie Bush ???

15 - Tiki Barber New York Giants

16 - Dom Davis Houston Texans

17 - Rudi Johnson Cincinati Bengals

18 - Julius Jones Dallas Cowboys

19 - Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens

20 - Cedric Benson Chicago Bears

21(t) - Chris Brown, Tennessee Titans

21(t) - Deshaun Foster, Carolina Panthers

23 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos

24 - DeAngelo Williams ???

25 - Thomas Jones, Chicago Bears

26 - Chris Perry

27 - Reuben Droughns

28 - Warrick Dunn

29 - Ricky Williams

30 - Willie Parker

31 - Corey Dillon

32t - LenDale White ???

32t - Lawrence Maroney ???

34 - Frank Gore

35 - Ahman Green

36 - Chester Taylor

37t - TJ Duckett

37t - Samkon Gado

39 - Fred Taylor

40 - JJ Arrington

41 - Mewelde Moore

42 - Greg Jones

43 - Kevan Barlow

44 - Marion Barber

45 - Mike Anderson

46 - Ryan Moats

47 - Michael Turner

48 - Cedric Houston

49 - Brian Calhoun

50 - Travis Henry

51 - Eric Shelton

52 - Maurice Morris

53 - Najeh Davenport

54 - Michael Bennett

55 - Dominic Rhodes

I personally bump Maroney and White up a bit from this, but this was the vote.

On QBs, Leinart is #15, Young #20, Cutler #34

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=222940

 

[Keys Myaths]

For the record, I think there's a HUGE difference between what the top draft picks are worth (trade value), and what the actual pick value is (basically, what you should be paying for it).

Which one are we talking about here?

 

[Riffraff]

Whats the value of these rookie draft picks...... in like players?So what are the top 12 rookie draft (dynasty) picks worth in player values?

What the heck, I'll try my luck at this.I preface this with my personal opinion that rookie picks aren't worth what people trade for them.1.01 RB Reggie Bush, USCTrade value = Barber, DDavis, WestbrookEarly 2nd round equivalent.1.02 RB Lendale White, USCTrade value = C. Brown, Barlow, Droughns3rd to 4th rounder1.03 RB DeAngelo Williams, MemphisTrade value = Parker, Bell, Perry5th round1.04 RB Lawrence Maroney, MinnesotaTrade value = Gore, Duckett, CTaylorHow agout a 6th round pick?1.05 RB Brian Calhoun, WisconsinTrade value = Turner, Houston, Shelton9th round gamble that a starter gets hurt and your guy gets the nod.1.06 QB Matt Leinart, USCTrade value = Frye, Grossman, or Carr.Roughly a #2 or #3 QB, so basically a 10th to 12th round pick.1.07 QB Vince Young, TexasTrade value = Losman, Rivers, or Campbell. A 1st round QB project with high hopes, maybe 14th round.1.08 WR Santonio Holmes, OSUTrade value = Lelie, Henry, or WilliamsonRookie WRs have little trade value and take forever to develop (if they ever do).1.09 WR Chad Jackson, FloridaTrade value = Curtis, MWilliams, or aging veteran like BruceGet a proven vet for this guy or hope your long shot makes it in 3 years.1.10 QB Jay Cutler, VanderbiltTrade value = Walter, Gerrard, or an aging vet with a year left (Favre)May start in 2 years or be always sitting on your practice squad.1.11 RB Joseph Addai, LSUTrade value = Goings, Musa Smith, or HicksPick your favorite 3rd stringer and hope the guy plays special teams.1.12 RB Jerome Harrison, Washington StateTrade value = McCullough, Clarett, or a guy that got injured and tries to make a comeback (Edwards scenario).Getting to the undraftable point in an inaugural draft.Yup, I suck at trying to figure this type of scenario out.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Whats the value of these rookie draft picks...... in like players?

So what are the top 12 rookie draft (dynasty) picks worth in player values?

What the heck, I'll try my luck at this.I preface this with my personal opinion that rookie picks aren't worth what people trade for them.

1.01 RB Reggie Bush, USC

Trade value = Barber, DDavis, Westbrook

Early 2nd round equivalent.



I disagree here.....DD is not worth what he was and the same can be said about Westbrook...with Moats seeing time there....Now Tiki Barber is a nice option but this is a dynasty so for certian teams trading away a 1.01 rookie pick for a 31 year old rb is cool, but IMO its not....I would think this years 1.01 rookie pick is worth guys like (S.Jax, JJ, KJ, McGahee, Rudi, Caddy along those lines of rb's) actually after the bog names comes off the board (LJ LT SA Portis Edge) he could fall somehwere right in there, cause he's being pimped as the next Faulk. The value of Bush lies within each owner.....and im just about high on his as you can get.

1.02 RB Lendale White, USC

Trade value = C. Brown, Barlow, Droughns

3rd to 4th rounder

I also disagree here BUT only if he lands in a favorable situation where he can start....if he goes to Green Bay, Arizona, Pittsburg, Patriots I think his value skyrockets....I see him out producing Bush in his 1st year cause of the type of rb he is. I would have to say he's worth the equalivent of (KJ, Duece, Jamal lewis, Rudi, R.Brown, Westrook.)

1.03 RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis

Trade value = Parker, Bell, Perry

5th round

Read Lendale comments.....I see them being worth about the same depending on if they can get a starting gig, if not then I agree with your acessment. I also believe this is where you can offer a trade for a top wr....like S.Smith, Chad johnson, Boldin or Fitz for this pick, especially if your had the wr depth to lose.

1.04 RB Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota

Trade value = Gore, Duckett, CTaylor

How agout a 6th round pick?

There's alot of talk of this guy ending up in INDY....if that were to happen he value could surpass that of White and Williams. I see the value of this pick around the likes of FWP, Bell, older stud wr's like Harrison TO Holt amongs others.....maybe even Gates right here....depending on where he lands.

1.05 RB Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin

Trade value = Turner, Houston, Shelton

9th round gamble that a starter gets hurt and your guy gets the nod.

1.06 QB Matt Leinart, USC

Trade value = Frye, Grossman, or Carr.

Roughly a #2 or #3 QB, so basically a 10th to 12th round pick.

1.07 QB Vince Young, Texas

Trade value = Losman, Rivers, or Campbell.

A 1st round QB project with high hopes, maybe 14th round.

1.08 WR Santonio Holmes, OSU

Trade value = Lelie, Henry, or Williamson

Rookie WRs have little trade value and take forever to develop (if they ever do).

1.09 WR Chad Jackson, Florida

Trade value = Curtis, MWilliams, or aging veteran like Bruce

Get a proven vet for this guy or hope your long shot makes it in 3 years.

1.10 QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

Trade value = Walter, Gerrard, or an aging vet with a year left (Favre)

May start in 2 years or be always sitting on your practice squad.

1.11 RB Joseph Addai, LSU

Trade value = Goings, Musa Smith, or Hicks

Pick your favorite 3rd stringer and hope the guy plays special teams.

1.12 RB Jerome Harrison, Washington State

Trade value = McCullough, Clarett, or a guy that got injured and tries to make a comeback (Edwards scenario).

Getting to the undraftable point in an inaugural draft.

Yup, I suck at trying to figure this type of scenario out.

As far as the other picks its hard to get a read on them....most will be backups are not ready so i cannot get a true range on them.....

 

[Riffraff]

I listed where the rookies would be most likely to be drafted in an inaugural draft. Thus their "true" value. Bush 2nd round, White 3rd, Williams, 4th, etc.In following drafts, actual player values in trade are always higher depending upon FF team needs. People pay outrageous prices for a rookie that has yet to show their true value. Rookies = exceptional trade value if they are top 5. Gotta pay dearly for the chance at Curt Enis or LaDainian Tomlinson.Older Veterans can be purchased for a late first /early second round pick. Here's where the value lies to keep a top team near the top for another year or two. Rinse and repeat until the whole team gets old (hopefully after a few championships are won). All they give up is a 3rd string RB or WR that may only see the field on special teams.There's a few ways to list how you'd like this thread to go:1. Rookies compared to where they'd be drafted in an inaugural draft. (Bush in early 2nd round).2. Rookies as opposed to what their hype is determining them to be valued at (Bush = Portis value).3. Rookies as valued in terms of actual chances of seeing the field for your FF team (1st and 2nd rounders probable.. third round gets sketchy, 4th and so on... little chance).I went with option 1 on my listing, you seem to want option 2. My bad.

 

[Crippler]

I agree with the 1.1 as I think an owner would trade any of the RB's mentioned in about a second. I disagree with the 1.2 and 1.3 at this point because the situation is unknown. If they go to the right situation than the 2nd poster value is right but if they dont than the 1st poster value is about rightAnd there is no way I trade one of the top WR's for the 1.3. I dont trade it straight up for the 1.2 in the end. I probably dont do it for the 1.1 as not a big risk taker and Bush could end up not being great in the end and be another Warrick Dunn more than a Ladian Tomlinson. There is no way I trade one right now for Ronnie Brown, Caddy Williams, or Cedric Benson as the top 3 picks last year. Put in #4 as JJ Arrington and you probably see something along these lines again. But than most leagues I am in are PPR leagues and WR's are usually worth alot. I think you are underestimating the value of a top WR these days.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I listed where the rookies would be most likely to be drafted in an inaugural draft. Thus their "true" value. Bush 2nd round, White 3rd, Williams, 4th, etc.

In following drafts, actual player values in trade are always higher depending upon FF team needs. People pay outrageous prices for a rookie that has yet to show their true value.

Rookies = exceptional trade value if they are top 5. Gotta pay dearly for the chance at Curt Enis or LaDainian Tomlinson.

Older Veterans can be purchased for a late first /early second round pick. Here's where the value lies to keep a top team near the top for another year or two. Rinse and repeat until the whole team gets old (hopefully after a few championships are won). All they give up is a 3rd string RB or WR that may only see the field on special teams.

There's a few ways to list how you'd like this thread to go:

1. Rookies compared to where they'd be drafted in an inaugural draft. (Bush in early 2nd round).

2. Rookies as opposed to what their hype is determining them to be valued at (Bush = Portis value).

3. Rookies as valued in terms of actual chances of seeing the field for your FF team (1st and 2nd rounders probable.. third round gets sketchy, 4th and so on... little chance).

I went with option 1 on my listing, you seem to want option 2. My bad.

You right, I was pretty much asking about question #2.I do appreciate your info though....as 1, 2 and 3 all matters to me at this point so that i can get a true feel of what these picks are worth and to get over the fact that just cause there new young blood and fresh........i may overvalue those picks as well as other owners....and if i can get a solid vet then i think i should do it.

 

[salmonstud]

Since it's relevant to the question of vets vs. rookie pick value....I just traded Ronnie Brown & 1.4 for Portis, Betts, 1.8, 2.11, 2.12If it were a 1.3 pick or higher I probably wouldn't have done the deal...but I'll always take a young already proven stud back over picks & upside.(12 team Dynasty league with standard yardage/TD scoring)

 

[RC94]

I think this is a very interesting discussion, but I am going to reserve my judgements until after the NFL draft so we can at least tell what NFL team these guys are on. Therefore, this post is really just a for later.

 

[Spike]

Since it's relevant to the question of vets vs. rookie pick value....

I just traded Ronnie Brown & 1.04 for Portis, Betts, 1.8, 2.11, 2.12.

If it were a 1.3 pick or higher I probably wouldn't have done the deal...but I'll always take a young already proven stud back over picks & upside.

(12 team Dynasty league with standard yardage/TD scoring)

FWIW, I'd prefer Ronnie Brown and 1.04 (Maroney or White, whomever goes to the better situation).

 

[salmonstud]

Since it's relevant to the question of vets vs. rookie pick value....

I just traded Ronnie Brown & 1.04 for Portis, Betts, 1.8, 2.11, 2.12.

If it were a 1.3 pick or higher I probably wouldn't have done the deal...but I'll always take a young already proven stud back over picks & upside.

(12 team Dynasty league with standard yardage/TD scoring)

FWIW, I'd prefer Ronnie Brown and 1.04 (Maroney or White, whomever goes to the better situation).

You might want to have your choice between the two, but probabaly won't get to choose...it should be done for you with the 1.3 pick. In this league I suspect the first 3 players selected will be RB's. Allot can change between now and after the NFL Draft...but you would probably get which ever one of the below is left: Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams , Lendale White , Laurence Maroney. You might want White but you might have to settle for Maroney. My thinking is that you may get a stud at 1.4 or you could get JJ Arrington. Would you rather have Arrington & R.Brown or Portis & the 1.8 rookie pick?

 

[hooptd]

Since it's relevant to the question of vets vs. rookie pick value....

I just traded Ronnie Brown & 1.04 for Portis, Betts, 1.8, 2.11, 2.12.

If it were a 1.3 pick or higher I probably wouldn't have done the deal...but I'll always take a young already proven stud back over picks & upside.

(12 team Dynasty league with standard yardage/TD scoring)

FWIW, I'd prefer Ronnie Brown and 1.04 (Maroney or White, whomever goes to the better situation).

You might want to have your choice between the two, but probabaly won't get to choose...it should be done for you with the 1.3 pick. In this league I suspect the first 3 players selected will be RB's. Allot can change between now and after the NFL Draft...but you would probably get which ever one of the below is left: Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams , Lendale White , Laurence Maroney. You might want White but you might have to settle for Maroney. My thinking is that you may get a stud at 1.4 or you could get JJ Arrington. Would you rather have Arrington & R.Brown or Portis & the 1.8 rookie pick?

That's o.k. Salmon, you forgot to mention you had depth at thr rb position.

 

[Magic Man]

I just traded away the 1.1 for R. Brown and the 1.3. I think I made out like a bandit in this deal. By the way I also have the 1.2.

 

[supermark_28]

I just traded away the 1.1 for R. Brown and the 1.3. I think I made out like a bandit in this deal. By the way I also have the 1.2. are you in a 1 team league??

 

[Magic Man]

No, but that's what happens when someone truly believes Bush is going to be the next superstar in the NFL and doens't want to lose out on him. I think he definitely can be, but the odds are better that he is going to be just a star RB about what Ronnie Brown is going to be. It's funny, because he wasn't going to do it, but I told him does he really want to wait until draft time comes around and then the price was going to be even higher for Bush. I thought about it for a couple of minutes then took the bait! Hook, Line and Sinker!

 

[Bri]

not so unlike Houston, in FF I'd put out the word to let the bidding begin on what they'd give me for Bush. You love the idea of the guy playing for your ff team or else it's almost like you're not allowed to draft him but have to trade the pick.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I just traded the 1.05 and 1.10 and 2.10 draft picks for J.Jones and M.barber IIII still own the 1.01, 1.03, 1.04 1.06, 1.08 2.01, 2.02 draft picks....thus my reason of starting this topic...I liked the deal i made as well caus emy team stunk!

 

[Riffraff]

I still own the 1.01, 1.03, 1.04 1.06, 1.08 2.01, 2.02 draft picks....thus my reason of starting this topic...I liked the deal i made as well caus emy team stunk!

You should know what type of players can net you the early draft picks. You obviously just had a fire sale.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I see some owners feel these picks are the way to go as i also just traded the:1.06, 1.08, 2.02 and some possible starters like T.Henry/J.Payton, E.Shelton, C.RogersforC.PortisNow i still own the 1.01, 1.03, 1.04 and 2.01 rookie draft picks, But im looking to deal off 1.03 and 1.04 as i plan to go with, Portis, JJ, and Bush as my 3 rb's.Will try and land a stud wr from a team with hardly no rb's and there's a few in my league under that critera.So it seems these picks really hold some MAJOR value but each owner view ther situations diffrently....some want to rebuild, others may wanna go another route.

 

[el centro]

In January hype is rampant so it's hard to get too good a feeling on this but I would say the value of the 1.1 (Reggie Bush) is somewhere between the #11 and #16.

Someone in the MOX leagues traded away LJ straight-up for the 1.01 just prior to our playoffs... the weird thing was - they giving away LJ had a solid shot at winning it all!

 

[Spike]

For an upcoming Zealots Field league initial veteran draft, I was just offered a guy's 1.12 rookie pick for my 5.02 veteran pick.Not the other guy's fault, per se, he just doesn't realize how bad that offer was.