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Experts rankings are LIVE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Target practice baby, target practice...like shooting ducks in a pond.Whom should I go after first??? So many to choose from...perhaps one of the newbies Rudnicki or Levin.You can expect a detailed analysis on each of your rankings and where I believe you have incorrectly prognosticated 
. Let the games begin! 
. Let the games begin! Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I was a little upset to see Cracker was not used for the IDP rankings, or was he?
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SammyJankis
Footballguy
Some RB Thoughts:- I think Clinton Portis is WAY too high. On the Skins, I see lots of yardage but a big dip in TDs. Wimer is apparently the only expert that agrees. I have him closer to RB12 myself. I'd like to hear him weigh in with his reasoning.- I know these rankings were just posted, but when were they taken.? If any were taken pre-draft I imagine it would pump up Rudi Johnson's ranking.- Other over/under rated RBs:Under: Shipp 19Kevin Jones 24Lee Suggs 26Thomas Jones 27Julius Jones 28Chris Brown 31McGahee 42 <---- Huh?Over
ortis 5D. Davis 13S. Davis 15 <-- Think Foster will steal carriesGarner 20Westbrook 22
ortis 5D. Davis 13S. Davis 15 <-- Think Foster will steal carriesGarner 20Westbrook 22
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SammyJankis
Footballguy
Just a thought, you should include a measure of volatility with these rankings, i.e. how much do the picks vary? For example if a QB is QB 5, do most people see him as 5 or are some people calling him QB1 while others are calling him QB10.
Aussie Cowboy
Footballguy
:culcasi:
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
thanks aussieP.S.Peerless Price 16 and Plaxico Burress 36?
Did Price get traded back to the Bills?
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SammyJankis
Footballguy
One last comment: WRs ranked ahead of Andre Johnson: Derrick Mason, Santana Moss, Steve Smith, Darrell Jackson. Is is just me, or does the thought of taking any of these guys ahead of Johnson just seem insane? And before you pull out the 03 stats, lets keep in mind that it was Johnson's rookie season. Johnson is just scratching his potential while these others have already reached it. Johnson should be top 10 boardering on top 5 IMO.
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
I have WR Andre Johnson 8th. I expect big things out of him this season. I have him down for145 targets84 receptions1240 receiving yards7-8 touchdowns
Public Service AnnouncmentHi LHUCKS,Target practice baby, target practice...like shooting ducks in a pond.
Whom should I go after first??? So many to choose from...perhaps one of the newbies Rudnicki or Levin.
You can expect a detailed analysis on each of your rankings and where I believe you have incorrectly prognosticated
Let the games begin!
Cool. Discussion is always good. I know you know this already but I'll say it for the benefit of others as this always seems to come up when rankings are discussed.
Analysis and breakdown are what makes this board what it is. We're fortunate to have a ton of ultra smart posters here who love to share their rankings. That's great. That's what we're all about.
But if / when the tone turns from "here's what I think of this player and why" to "what kind of idiot ranks this guy here?", you can expect that to be a short lived discussion.
That goes for everyone and it goes for everyone's picks, not just the guys on staff. Part of the draw of this board is that everyone can come in and share what they think about a player and know they're not going to get personally ripped. If you differ on an opinion with a staff guy or another poster, explain why you differ. Let us hear what you think about a player and why. That's what makes good discussion.
Sorry to be heavy handed. But every year we have a couple of guys who think it's cool to see how much they can ridicule a poster or a staff guy on his picks. Then they always act like they never knew when they're booted.
Bottom line is keep it focused on the players and you'll be fine.
Thanks.
J
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WadeGarrett22
Footballguy
Agree. And Curtis Martin at #25???? Hayden has Minnesota's HBBC ahead of Martin. Explain.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
Isn't Denver considered RB nirvana? Wouldn't we all agree that Denver's system made Gary and Mike Anderson look much better than they actually were? Hypothetically if you took any random RB, wouldn't that back post better stats in Denver than in most other places?No matter what you think of Portis, I can't see how you think the move to Washington won't hurt his stats unless you buy into the "Gibbs love to pound his RB" theory. But articles on Gibbs style indicate that he adapts his offense to the talent around him. With Coles, Gardner and Thrash, it just can't be the Clinton Portis show like it was in Denver. I maintain that:- Denver was the ideal situation for Portis to produce top FF numbers. Washington is a good situation, but not nearly as much so.- The cache of weapons in the Redskin arsenal will force the Skins to spread the ball around more, hurting Portis's stats.This ranking suffers from the "let's just list all the players in order of how they finished last year and then tweak it" disease.Portis's final numbers look more like Fred Taylor's than Jamal Lewis's in 04 IMO.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
Yes I do. I can't see Moss improving on 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Especially not with McCareins opposite of him, taking away scores.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I can't speak for everyone, but I'd call your attention to the fact that almost everyone has Martin ranked within a stone's throw of the cutoff for RB2s. THats a consistant ranking, and seeing as how his YPC has declined for 3 straight years and and his TD totals have dropped as well, right about RB24 or 25 looks pretty fair to me in the big picture. A guy like Michael Bennett being ranked higher might mean people are putting a little more stock into Bennett not yet hitting his prime while Martin is probably a little past his.Colin
switz
Footballguy
I disagree, I think he's too low.Your argument that he woulld have a ton of yardage but not TDs doesn't hold water, being that last season he scored 14 and all but 4 were scored from inside the 20. Portis is a successful red zone runner, and I don't see any goal line RB stealing carries from him in WAS.Betts? Only 2 TDs inside the redzone on 12 carries, not very effective at the GL. Plus they didn't give him a vote of confidence in signing Portis.Additioanlly they paid Portis a ton of money, they are not going to take him off the field that much. He's got a better-than-avg line in front, and isn't facing the most dominant DLines in the league.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Most of the "stud" RBs will look more like Fred Taylor's '03 then Jamal Lewis's '03, unless you expect an outbreak of 2,000 yard runners.Portis's high ranking is 2. His low ranking is 12. There are 7 people that have him 5th or better and 6 that have him 6th or worse. So, half the people think he'll take a dip in a new system and half the people think the new system, along with his talents, will result in him being top-tier. By averaging those two schools of thought, Portis ends up 5th.Colin
WadeGarrett22
Footballguy
I understand that thinking.I question having Onterrio Smith, slated to start as the backup, ranked one spot higher than Martin, a featured back who has consistently put up numbers regardless of whether they are declining.
jurb26
Footballguy
Sorry, but I'm not buying it. Yes Den has been great to RBs, but anyone who has watched Portis can tell that he is the best RB that they have had in a while. He is more tallented than even the likes of Davis. Now yes I think that Portis will find it tougher to get the 1500+ yds and 14+ tds he was able to attain in Den. But don't forget that he got those numbers in only 12 and 13 gamesIsn't Denver considered RB nirvana? Wouldn't we all agree that Denver's system made Gary and Mike Anderson look much better than they actually were? Hypothetically if you took any random RB, wouldn't that back post better stats in Denver than in most other places?No matter what you think of Portis, I can't see how you think the move to Washington won't hurt his stats unless you buy into the "Gibbs love to pound his RB" theory. But articles on Gibbs style indicate that he adapts his offense to the talent around him. With Coles, Gardner and Thrash, it just can't be the Clinton Portis show like it was in Denver. I maintain that:- Denver was the ideal situation for Portis to produce top FF numbers. Washington is a good situation, but not nearly as much so.- The cache of weapons in the Redskin arsenal will force the Skins to spread the ball around more, hurting Portis's stats.This ranking suffers from the "let's just list all the players in order of how they finished last year and then tweak it" disease.Portis's final numbers look more like Fred Taylor's than Jamal Lewis's in 04 IMO.
. If you rate that out to a full 16 games, then he finishes the year with 2304 tot yds and 21 tds in 2002 and 2345 tot yds and 17 tds in 2003!Add this with the fact that Wash having better weapons on O should help Portis out as he will now not have to face the constant crowded box like he did in Den. Especially the games last year in which Plummer was hurt. Teams has absolutly no respect for the Den passing attack then and concentrated only on Portis. Bottom line is that all Portis has to do is remain healty IMO to match his #s of the last 2 seasons or at leats come close which is something that casn't be predicted any way. Now does that mean he is as effective, no. His per game averages should come back down a bit, but still finishing the year with close to 2000 tot yds and 14 tds puts any RB in the top 5 as far as I'm concerned and thats right about where I see him.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
I would say that the one player I see noticably undervalued is Kevin Johnson. I'm the only one who ranks him in the top 40 for WRs. I'm sorry, but he's Baltimore's lone WR option.
Just to keep some perspective, Travis Taylor ranked 43rd among WRs last year and caught a miserable 39 catches for 632 yards and 3 touchdowns last year.
The average fantasy WR40 (5-Years) using FBG scoring:
54 receptions for 750 yards and 3.4 touchdowns
The average fantasy WR30 (5-Years) using FBG scoring:
50 receptions for 782 yards and 6.4 touchdownsNow, let's look at Kevin Johnson's seasonal output:
I just don't see how he doesn't rank among the top 30-40 fantasy receivers as the clear cut WR1 for a team.
Just to keep some perspective, Travis Taylor ranked 43rd among WRs last year and caught a miserable 39 catches for 632 yards and 3 touchdowns last year.
The average fantasy WR40 (5-Years) using FBG scoring:
54 receptions for 750 yards and 3.4 touchdowns
The average fantasy WR30 (5-Years) using FBG scoring:
50 receptions for 782 yards and 6.4 touchdownsNow, let's look at Kevin Johnson's seasonal output:
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1999 cle | 16 | 1 -6 -6.0 0 | 66 986 14.9 8 || 2000 cle | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 57 669 11.7 0 || 2001 cle | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 84 1097 13.1 9 || 2002 cle | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 67 703 10.5 4 || 2003 jax | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 58 634 10.9 3 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 79 | 1 -6 -6.0 0 | 332 4089 12.3 24 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+I think two things;
C. Portis has consistantly been ranked too high. Excellent R.B., but
New team
New coach
New offensive line
E. James has been consistantly ranked too low - I see him in the 6-8 range.
My top 10 looks like this;
1-4 ok
5. S Alexander
6. R. Williams
7. E. James
8. C. Portis
9. J. Lewis
10. F Taylor.
C. Portis has consistantly been ranked too high. Excellent R.B., but
New team
New coach
New offensive line
E. James has been consistantly ranked too low - I see him in the 6-8 range.
My top 10 looks like this;
1-4 ok
5. S Alexander
6. R. Williams
7. E. James
8. C. Portis
9. J. Lewis
10. F Taylor.
Kleck
Footballguy
I understand your perspective on this, and think you make some good points. My rationale in ranking these guys revolves around listening to Boller talk about his options. He constantly talks about getting the ball to Taylor. How much they didn't do it last year, and how much he plans to do it this year.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Likewise with Wimer putting Faulk in the #26 slot???Edited to add: ...and he doesn't have S. Jackson even rated??? Somebody's going to run the ball in that potent offense What gives?
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I think Martin is being undervalued once again. Every year it's the same thing. The fact that NY was rumored to be offering Jordan also tells you that they will ride CMartin again. Also, look at his stats in the last few weeks after Pennington was back.I think he makes a solid #2 and possibly the best #3 RB ever in the history of fantasy football to have on your roster.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Great Job Guys!!! Thanks for getting this out so early!Can't wait for the usual point-counterpoint debates on players from the staffer who has them ranked highest and the one who has them ranked lowest - it sounds like other people are looking for that discussion too.For those of us in Dynasty leagues (and it seems like that number is growing significantly each year), what do you think about doing an expert ranking for rookies only?Thanks! 
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I dont know about you, but i would hate to have to start Curtis Martin every week. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Chris Brown or Kevin Jones.
Mark Wimer
Moderator
RB Clinton Portis:Joe Gibbs is a “team” coach. He plays to win, and he uses all the available weapons at his disposal to that end. He has also, historically, used a multi-faceted rushing attack when he has had appropriate personnel available to do so. Go Here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/wasindex.htm to check out his 1990-1992 Redskin teams to see what I mean. In a nutshell, Gibb’s teams “feature” one back, but employ 2-3 other auxiliary backs in certain situations. Ernest Byner topped out at 1219 yards rushing/6 TD’s with 31/279/1 receiving back in 1990 under Gibbs. Gerald Riggs had 123/475/6 rushing that year, and Kelvin Bryant caught 26/248/1 out of the backfield.Clinton Portis is a special talent, but he is not bigger than the Redskins’ team. Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate (some combination thereof) will get touches and TD’s in Gibb’s system, limiting Portis’ fantasy upside in 2004. The analogy between Gibb’s 2004 stable and his early ‘90’s stable is clear and unmistakable.
If Brown is given the starting job, I absolutely agree he is a better option. But you know Jones is going to split with Pinner and Bryson.I'm just saying...Martin is downgraded every year for this or that. Where did he come in last year in points? It was usually top 15 in most scoring systems.What has changed other than Pennington being healthy and them actually upgrading their WR core? Nothing. So why can't he be top 15 again?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Gentlemen - A mistake was made in the "Overall" category which ought to be corrected. Kevin Jones Det is listed as both the #41 and #50 overall. Gray's and Shick's rankings were not combined with the others.
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Drugrunner
Just call me HORSE
I've been trying to trade away Fred Taylor.cracker should have been included so Fred would have a higher ranking. 
I guess since this is being done in one thread, I'll throw my opinion in on a TE that I think will significantly outperform his consensus ranking on this site. I believe Jason Witten has an outside chance to be a top 5 fantasy TE, certainly no worse than top 10. As a rookie, his role and numbers expanded dramatically in the back half of the season, with the splits as follows:1st 8 games: 8 catches, 94 yards, 0 TD'sLast 8 games: 27 catches, 253 yards, 1 TDParcells has already stated that he intends to expand Witten's role this season, and I expect something on the order of 50-60 catches, 500-600 yards, and 3-5 TD's.
CheeseHead
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm sorry, but I'm just not sure where this huge loss of TD production is going to come from in regards to Portis. The guy has scored 17 TDs the last 2 seasons from inside the Redzone! Compare that to the guys on the Wash roster other than him and the 3 combined have only amassed 12 TDs from the Redzone over the last 3 years (Cartwright 8, Betts 2, Canidate 2). So you mean to tell me that people actually think he will loose a significant amount of TDs based on that. Gibbs will most definatly use all of his RBs in order to max his tallent. But the bottom line is that Portis is better than every RB on the team at every aspect of the game and will be spelled for fatigue effects not production effects.RB Clinton Portis:Joe Gibbs is a “team” coach. He plays to win, and he uses all the available weapons at his disposal to that end. He has also, historically, used a multi-faceted rushing attack when he has had appropriate personnel available to do so. Go Here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/wasindex.htm to check out his 1990-1992 Redskin teams to see what I mean. In a nutshell, Gibb’s teams “feature” one back, but employ 2-3 other auxiliary backs in certain situations. Ernest Byner topped out at 1219 yards rushing/6 TD’s with 31/279/1 receiving back in 1990 under Gibbs. Gerald Riggs had 123/475/6 rushing that year, and Kelvin Bryant caught 26/248/1 out of the backfield. So basically Portis has been more than twice as effective at scoring (8.5 per year vs 4) then all 3 of these guys combined.Clinton Portis is a special talent, but he is not bigger than the Redskins’ team. Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate (some combination thereof) will get touches and TD’s in Gibb’s system, limiting Portis’ fantasy upside in 2004. The analogy between Gibb’s 2004 stable and his early ‘90’s stable is clear and unmistakable.
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Did you see where I have him?
Colin
EastBayFunk
Footballguy
Some comments:Marshall Faulk jumps out as being very overrated. There's no way he should be ahead of Kevan Barow. Barlow is a lock for the top 15 if he stays healthy. Faulk has been on the decline for a while, can't stay healthy, and has a first round pick nipping at his heels. That's not a recipe for a top 10 back in my opinion. I think people are giving a little too much credit to Santana Moss. I really don't view him as a legitimate #1 and feel that the addition of Justin McCareins will definitely cut into his numbers. Andre Johnson has more physical talent than Moss, posted similar numbers as a rookie to what Moss did in his third year, and will be his team's undisputed go to guy. I think he's a much better option. Jerry Porter, Marty Booker, Ashley Lelie, Justin McCareins, and David Givens all stand out to me as guys who could significantly outperform their rankings. I'm hesitant to ever hype Quincy Morgan again, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either he or Davis go for 1,000 this year.
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That's my fault (and Exhibit A on why you shouldn't work on rankings at 2:30 AM).Thanks for catching that.I'll let David know.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Kevin Johnson has been a Raven for all of four days, I'd imagine Boller hasn't had too many chances to get sound bites in about his enthusiasm for throwing him the ball.
placeholder10391
Footballguy
Nobody had the KAHUNAS to rank Thomas Jones higher than 19???And the mid-twenties on average???? :cX: I may be going out on a limb all by myself, but I'll happily say that he will finish the season way higher than 20. Top-10 is not a stretch. I also gree that Portis is overrated - his numbers will fall off quite a bit in Washington.The rest seems reasonable.Wait, did I mention that Josh McCown and Anquan Boldin were ranked way too low?? 
