Explain Rookie Ratings to Me (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What does it mean when you read a rookie ranking that lists 30 players at a position? Everyone knows 30 guys aren't going to pan out.

I'd argue that most years a rookie rated number 10 or higher at their position basically means the rater thinks there's a very low chance that player will be relevant in FF.

When I think about this (and when I rank) I'm only ever interested in players who might be legit starters in FF, which in turn means real difference makers in the NFL. Why not rate them more long those lines, i.e. how likely they are to be one of those players?

Elite prospects

Good prospect

Marginal prospect

Everyone else (which btw should be the large majority of the 40 plus drafted RBs and WRs every year)

For example... if I think Montario Hardesty is fools gold why rate him? Who cares what number I put him on my list - the important info is that I don't think he can play. Shouldn't I say so? What use is it to tell me someone is #20 on your list and then go into long detail about how his strengths might let him become an NFL starter? If he's #20 you've already told me: "I don't think this guy can start, or even play, in the NFL."

Take a stand! Predict whether they're going to make it or not. Tell me how likely you think it is they turn into a strong NFL player.

For example... As of today I want Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Marcus Easley and Joe Webb at WR this year. IMO (and it's just that) those are the guys who might turn into big time NFL WRs.

And I'll give you the rest of the field. Because I don't believe most of those guys can play. Why would I rank the other twenty WRs from #6 to #25? That wouldn't really tell you anything if I don't think they're NFL quality WRs.

Don't get hung up on my particular stance on players here - I'm trying to focus on a process that actually conveys some useful information and also lets us evaluate someone's rankings after the fact. If someone rates 25 WRs and #s 1, 4, 9, 14 and 19 pan out were the rankings any good? Should I pay attention to them next year? Who knows?!

If I tell you I think that Jermaine Gresham and Andrew Quarless are top TE prospects and that Dorin Dickerson has some potential as a WR convert I've given you something concrete that you can use (if I'm right) and judge me by (if I'm wrong). Why rank 20 TEs? We know 20 TEs aren't going to be starter quality NFL players, and what does it help to know who my "#7 TE" is if I don't believe he can play? Shouldn't I be telling you who I think will make it and be a FF relevant player, and who won't?

Anyone with me here? Flying solo? Out to lunch? Stick to the decaf?

 

[az_prof]

Some of us play in dynasty leagues where there may be 30 or more rookies drafted. While 28, 29, and 30 are long shots, it is still useful to know whether an expert thinks #30 is a long shot to start quickly but has the upside to be a great player in a couple of years, versus another player who has no shot, etc.

 

[coolnerd]

I am about half way with you. I believe the most important thing is to tier players correctly and do so on the context of NFL players versus the class alone. That said, when I am in the 4th round of a rookie draft and can't trade out of the spot and have to take somebody, ranking based on my relatively limited knowledge of the prospects helps me sort through the trash.

 

[Patoons]

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.

I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

 

[beto]

I get what you are saying. If everyone took your approach to ranking we would be able to tell how good/bad they are at ranking rookies. But since very few people get these type of things right I'd rather just see rankings in whatever format they choose.

 

[FUBAR]

I am about half way with you. I believe the most important thing is to tier players correctly and do so on the context of NFL players versus the class alone. That said, when I am in the 4th round of a rookie draft and can't trade out of the spot and have to take somebody, ranking based on my relatively limited knowledge of the prospects helps me sort through the trash.

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

One of my leagues has roughly 128 players drafted in the rookie draft. It pays to know the deep sleepers. Every year there are some that pan out decently and hold value. The staff or people posting here trying to share pros/cons and other information have to include guys we might not know much about. Guys like Zach Miller (JAX), Louis Murphy, Miles Austin, Devin Aromashodu, Jermichael Finley, Devone Bess, Marques Colston, etc. wouldn't be ranked or known by many if they didn't go deeper. I suppose your point is we should just pick out the guys who we think will succeed from that group, but the fact is none of us really know, so we try to evaluate everyone and rank them accordingly. There's always just a handful of players I'll seek out but I want the guys like Bloom to evaluate them impartially as I can't see everyone myself.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

Patoons... this suggests that you're using player ranking to determine MARKET value - instead of their talent, no?Actually, now that I say that I suspect that's probably what you're doing since we've talked about this before? Daytrading vs buy and hold value?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I suppose your point is we should just pick out the guys who we think will succeed from that group

Yeah... that's pretty much what I was getting at.

 

[Patoons]

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

Patoons... this suggests that you're using player ranking to determine MARKET value - instead of their talent, no?Actually, now that I say that I suspect that's probably what you're doing since we've talked about this before? Daytrading vs buy and hold value?

Well... my rankings are typically on talent, but I don't ignore guys that will have value since it's virtually impossible that I'm 100% correct.

 

[FUBAR]

I suppose your point is we should just pick out the guys who we think will succeed from that group

Yeah... that's pretty much what I was getting at.

pretty clear too but while that would be worthwhile in addition to assessing each player, I want the guys who watch more film and get a chance to research this stuff in depth to give me the info I need to make my own assessment of each player.

 

[Christo]

Some of us play in dynasty leagues where there may be 30 or more rookies drafted. While 28, 29, and 30 are long shots, it is still useful to know whether an expert thinks #30 is a long shot to start quickly but has the upside to be a great player in a couple of years, versus another player who has no shot, etc.

While he wasn't 28, 29 or 30 a good example of this was Bloom's pimping of Brandon Marshall. I was able to pick him up in all three of my dynasty leagues that year either late in the second or early in the third.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I get what you are saying, but others have nailed it already. When a rookie draft is 50+ players deep (as many are), the large majority of the guys taken are going to wash out. That doesn't mean you don't draft them. And so, you have to evaluate them. It's really that simple.

The NFL proper is more or less the same way. A good chunk of the players drafted in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds are going to get cut from their teams. Should NFL teams only evaluate the guys who are projected in the first couple of rounds and guess on the rest? Of course not. They evaluate everybody, hope for the best from their guys, and every once in a while find a gem.

So yeah, the 15th ranked RB might be a longshot. But they are all longshots at that point, and you want to try to find the longshot with the best odds.

 

[GregR_2]

Some of us play in dynasty leagues where there may be 30 or more rookies drafted. While 28, 29, and 30 are long shots, it is still useful to know whether an expert thinks #30 is a long shot to start quickly but has the upside to be a great player in a couple of years, versus another player who has no shot, etc.

Some of us play in dynasty leagues where we start 11 offensive skill positions players and 11 IDP. My league had 85 rookies drafted last year including 23 wide receivers. And yes some of them pay off. Pierre Garcon was taken as the 100th player 2 years ago and is still on that team's roster. Mike Wallace was the 74th player this last year and 22nd WR drafted. He ended up 4th in scoring amongst rookie WRs and was WR32 overall. In a league that starts anywhere from 48 to 60 WRs a week (4 WR, 1 flex WR/TE), yes, those rankings can mean something to us.

 

[JPeso]

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

Patoons... this suggests that you're using player ranking to determine MARKET value - instead of their talent, no?Actually, now that I say that I suspect that's probably what you're doing since we've talked about this before? Daytrading vs buy and hold value?

Well... my rankings are typically on talent, but I don't ignore guys that will have value since it's virtually impossible that I'm 100% correct.

I get the premise of your argument, WDC, but I'm with Patoons here. You cannot ignore value if 10/12 owners like the player.

 

[gregjcross]

Some of us play in dynasty leagues where there may be 30 or more rookies drafted. While 28, 29, and 30 are long shots, it is still useful to know whether an expert thinks #30 is a long shot to start quickly but has the upside to be a great player in a couple of years, versus another player who has no shot, etc.

Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis make that argument to list them out

 

[JDub15]

This is a great post...

While rankings are useful for deep rookie drafts, perhaps FBG and/or Draftguys should do a separate piece on the players they feel are sleepers and/or could end up really working out as prospects with MAJOR upside... I.E., a Brandon Marshall, a Mike-Sims Walker, etc. That way you really understand who to target in the late rounds of your league drafts.

You will definitely hear about these guys by listening to the audible (This year Dan LeFevor is the guy for the QB position that both Cecil & Sigmund really like) but it would be great to have them written down somewhere...

I.E., last year, TE James Casey was a deep prospect that Bloom really felt strong about that could workout to be a major fantasy force, but I don't think you would have gathered that just from looking at the draftguys.com rankings.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

No one knows anything for sure, but ranking a player down 10 spot from where he's normally value him is just as good as not including him in your rankings. There's no way I'd exclude a top player from my rankings because if that player slips, I would take a shot at him at a later ranking. Rarely happens though.

I rarely have players that I won't touch regardless of how solid the value is.

Patoons... this suggests that you're using player ranking to determine MARKET value - instead of their talent, no?Actually, now that I say that I suspect that's probably what you're doing since we've talked about this before? Daytrading vs buy and hold value?

Well... my rankings are typically on talent, but I don't ignore guys that will have value since it's virtually impossible that I'm 100% correct.

I get the premise of your argument, WDC, but I'm with Patoons here. You cannot ignore value if 10/12 owners like the player.

This is usually where the rankings thank God, fluctuate. Problem is you could be absolutely right about the boom or bust of a player but at the mercy of the PERCEIVED value to your leaguemates. And his true value is skewed.