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Exploit and Avoid Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
My mother in law rolled into town over the weekend and then Hurricane Ian arrived and so she was only going to be in my house for a night or two. When the storm approached, my wife decided to cancel their hotel room where they planned on staying a couple nights. Why would anyone want to enjoy the beach in the rain?…I volunteered to go to the rainy motel room on the beach with my laptop and my igloo cube full of Hi-Neighbor Tall Boys by Narangasett but was shot down before I could launch from Alert-5!

I did manage to find a keyboard and a Herman Miller to cozy up to with online updates on Ian from the local NBC/ABC affiliate out of Ft Myers (youtube it). I was hitting an open bottle of red wine at 4am on Monday Morning and got very into my “research” for this write up. My MiL is of course stranded here in my living room and house for the rest of the week, please add me to your prayers list.

I hope you find an adult beverage and let me entertain you for a few minutes. All comments and contrarian points of view are welcome. Godspeed to our friends on the Southwest Coast of Florida today, this one is for all of you.



Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (47) Bengals sporting All White uniforms

-How does Miami manage to knock off Buffalo 21-19 being outgained 500 to 200 yds?
-How is Miami 3-0 but have given up the 2nd most pass yds trailing only Balt?
-How is Miami undefeated with less than 1% of opposing QB dropbacks end w/ QBH?

QB: Burrow should have no problems finding his receivers vs Miami which is down a starting Cornerback-B.Jones. They have suffered thru Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks and will likely get torched again this week by one of the best in the NFL. Compounding the problem for Miami would be their lack of pass rush. Burrow is a top 10 projected QB this week and could go higher. When you factor in QBH/QBP/QBS, Miami is the 4th worst in the NFL, Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart at home.

Tua on the other hand will be facing a Top 10 Defense this season again in Week 4. The Bengals have only yielded 2 passing TDs on Defense and being a short week, the fact he is injured with what is described as a loose back and visually many of us thought he had a concussion. You’re best leaving this alone.

WR: Chase and Higgins will be just fine and produce but Hill and Waddle will have some serious challenges finding enough targets and catches vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have not seen the talent Miami runs onto the field but they managed to slow down the Steelers, Cowboys(No Dak) and the Jets so obviously this is their biggest challenge of the season. Hill was only 2/33 last week and Waddle was 4/103.

RB:Mixon was injured last week and finished with 12/27 on the ground. Played his least amount of snaps on the season but is being counted on to start at RB this week on Thursday Night.

Chase Edwards managed 2 TDs last week but limited touches overall and he was just a whopping 15 points in Redrafts. The Miami running game has to be near the bottom of the NFL, you should usually pass on this since Miami cannot run the football effectively.

Final Score: Cincinnati 27…Miami 17, The Dolphins are 3-0 but very susceptible to a loss this week.
 
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Minnesota at New Orleans (+2.5) (44)

-Winston has 2 TDs and 5 Int the last 2 games, he turns the ball over too often including 2 fumbles in the last game but were fortunately recovered or he would have even more gifts to the opposition. Vikings give up the 4th most passing yards but somehow just 2 TDs on the season.

Cousins has a ceiling, even when he should be in line for monster games it simply does not go that way. 24/41 260/2TD, that is the nice stat line you get from Kirk Cousins when he does have a decent game. His better games are Mid 20s for point production but he rarely gives you that Top 5 performance or at least has not to this point. Some Winston turnovers however, might give him some short fields and a few easier scores. Also should be noted the Saints have a pretty good pass defense but don’t produce a lot of turnovers, NO Interceptions thus far.

-Olave had another big game, 14/220 his last 2 weeks combined on B2B 13 target games, a more accurate QB and he might have even bigger production. Thomas and Landry pale in comparison to what Olave brings to the table right now. Thomas and Landry are missing practice right now to boot.

Justin Jefferson 3/14 last week? Osborn was the top WR? That cannot happen often and Minnesota wins football games. I would assume it was a fluke. 9-6-3 his catch totals the first 3 weeks. We had not seen much at all from Thielen and Osborn the first couple weeks of the season.

Cook had one of his best rushing days thus far and also banged up his shoulder, Day 2 Day right now. If Mattison is somehow available in your league, maybe you might want to pick him up in case he has to carry more of the load this week.

Kamara might have still been injured last week, didn’t make much noise. He hasn’t done a lot of anything to this point in 2022, his stock must be a potential buy low but what if the Saints Offense simply does not materialize?

Final Score: Minnesota 24…New Orleans 20
 
Cleveland at Atlanta (+1.5) (49.5)

-Atlanta has a pretty subpar defense giving up roughly 270/2.5 TD per game which makes Brissett likely to have an above average passing day and chance to take the Browns up to 3-1 on the season. The Falcons also allow 4.8 yds per clip and over 110 yds on the ground per game which means Cleveland can also run the ball quite often if they choose.

-Brissett? In DFS you might put your toe in the water here but overall this is never a good option for you at QB despite the soft defense he will be facing. Mariota has thrown 33, 26 and last week just 20 passes. That’s not anyone you want to build a team around.

-Nick Chubb should see plenty of action and my gut says Kareem Hunt will have a big day on the turf inside Atlanta. Patterson had his second big day of the year with 140/TD, the Browns have a much better defense but they also are trying to absorb the potential loss of Myels Garrett who was involved in a car wreck this week and will be OK but might not be available this week. The Cleveland Browns have a stout run defense with only 4 yds per carry allowed and about 80 yds a game, teams get frustrated against them.

-Keep riding Amari Cooper, should be another strong week unless the Browns mount a big lead which could happen despite the Falcons playing very hard right now and could be 3-0 if you have watched some of their games.

Drake London is starting to become a weekly starter in your line up. It is concerning to see so few passes from Mariota.

Final Score: Cleveland 27…Atlanta 21
 
Buffalo at Baltimore (+3.5) (52)

-The Bills outgained Miami almost 2.5 yds to 1 on offense, it’s a miracle they lost that football game and even with a secondary stitched together, they have more to slow down the Ravens then vice versa.

QB: Lamar Jackson might be labeled his first “Avoid” of the season. This defense is leading the league in fewest FF points given up weekly, take your best shot On the flip side, Josh Allen should approach another 400 yds of offense and have multiple TDs, many TDs, 3-4-5 TD type performance should be in the blackjack shoot for him this week.

RB: Singletary made his living on 9 catches last week, it’s RBBC no matter how you slice it and James Cook is looking a little better with each game, he could factor heavily into things as the season progresses. His big contribution was 4/37 in the receiving department but he looks quick and elusive. Moss had 5 touches, cleared over 50 yds. The Ravens are a mess but Dobbins is slowly being worked back into the offense. He is the only RB you can even try to bet on right now.

WR: All Buffalo WRs are a good option this week assuming they are all healthy. Diggs-Davis-McKenzie, all 3 of them can get in on the action this weekend.
On the flip side, Buffalo held Tyreek Hill to 2/33 so you pick your poison but they are very stingy on Tight Ends so Mark Andrews high chance to come up short this week, very tough matchup for him.

Final Score: Buffalo 31…Ravens 21
 
Washington at Dallas (-3) (42.5)

If Dallas had more of a passing attack this week they would be the favorite this week by a much wider margin. Washington is allowing 275/2.5+TDs a week thru the air. With Cooper Rush starting for Dallas it’s unlikely those numbers are seen on Sunday.

Dallas would rather attack that 5.4 yds per carry they yield on the ground. 130 rushing yards a game, that might be pushed out to almost 200 this coming weekend between Pollard and Zeke. The ground game for Dallas will be the key to this football game.

Wentz will not have a lot of time to throw the football plus Dallas is holding teams to about 180 yds pass and only 1 TD per game right now. Where Dallas showed some vulnerability this past week was on the ground but Washington does not have a steady game going with Gibson right now. He was held to just 12/38 last week, they were ready to start Brian Robinson and if he happens to be on your waiver wire, you might want to pick him up, he’s expected to take over as the starting RB quickly when he is cleared for football.

QB: Wentz and Rush figure to both be below average this week vs what you likely already have on your team starting.

RB: Pollard and Zeke are both worth consideration. Gibson had 38 yds and a TD last week on 12 carries, he’s an RB3 at best.

WR: McLaurin and Samuel are always worth starting but it figures they could have their lowest production of the season vs Dallas. CeeDeeLamb dropped a sure 50 yd TD last week on some beautiful play action from Cooper Rush only to watch the ball fall thru his hands for an incompletion.

Final Score: Dallas 20…Washington 17
 
Seattle at Detroit (-6) (50) started at -1

Seattle is the worst ranked defense in the NFL right now, Detroit is the 3rd worst overall. The Lions give up around 265-270 yds passing and almost 2 TD per week. Seattle, not a lot better at 240 yards surrendered weekly. Both teams have issues against the run as well. Seahawks are giving up 155 and 1.3 TD on the ground, Detroit 140 and 2.3 TD allowed weekly.

-52% of all drives started vs Seattle end with a score, Detroit is 35% same stat.
-Another ugly Seattle stat is almost 8 yds per attempt they allow on defense, think about that.

QB: Geno had 320 yds last week, 2 TD and a Pick. Goff has risen steadily in yds passing each week but his TDs are all over the place, did toss 4 of them in Week 2.

RB: Penny is a good bet for Seattle, he’s been pretty quiet most of the year but expect him to bust a couple longer runs and have over 100 yds this weekend. Walker has not been given a steady diet of touches yet so we don’t know what he can do. I expect more of him in the 2nd half of the season when Seattle is 2-6.

WR: Pick one, any one, haha. Metcalf had 5/64/TD last week after a miserable start. Those are pedestrian numbers for him but it offers hope this week he can have a splash game. Lockett was 9/76 last week, again one of his biggest weeks of the young season. He tends to go off when you least expect it.

Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.

Final Score: Detroit 31…Seattle 24
 
LAC at Houston (+5) (44)

-The Texans surprisingly rank in the middle overall on Defense. They still give up a whopping 410 yds per game but its split pretty even on the ground and thru the air, and since the NFL seems to value the pass a lot more these days, the fact they only give up 200 yds of passing per game masks the fact they can’t stop most teams who are committed to running the football. Is LAC committed? Hmmmm, I smell potential upset brewing here or at least another tie ball game for Lovie.

QB: Herbert played last week but safe to say he was not himself. The loss of Slater on the OL cannot be understated and impacts this offense going the rest of the way. Typically when a Tackle is injured and misses time, it impacts the ability to drop back and throw long passes. Herbert will now look even more to the short game which favors Keenan Allen so if you like a buy low, might not be nay cheaper to get him.

RB: Ekeler has been a major disappointment in the running game. It’s not like anyone else is a better option. Austin did manage a respectable 8/48 receiving but the return on investment has not been there so far. On the other side I think most pierce investors are delighted with the return heading into Week 4. There is no doubt Pierce is the starter and he’s in line for 60-80-100 yds a week any Sunday, some will be lower but he’s close to the only weapon they have outside of the guy I list at WR.

WR: Brandin Cooks and Pierce at RB and that’s it for Houston right now. Easy to track. For the LAC, I mentioned Keenan Allen and as long as he is a go, stand to be the recipient of a short passing game with Herbert throwing him quick accurate passes. Mike Williams is a wildcard and Palmer will slide down with Allen in the mix. Everett had 6 targets last week, only produced 2/25. Brandin Cooks was the highest targeted Houston WR with 7 last week, follow the targets.

-The Chargers lack the running game to exploit the Houston Texans which is why I think we might have an upset brewing in Texas this weekend. You add to the fact the Bolts allow 45% of their drives on defense to end in a score of one type or another, I see an opportunity for a steal by the Texans or something closer than many predict. Chargers are allowing 250 yds and almost 2.5TD thru the air weekly, you bet Cooks should find his this weekend.

One more stat to scare the beJesus out of you, Houston ranks 5th in QB pressures which include (hurries+knockdowns+sacks) and the Chargers lost a Tackle, I feel like Mickey in Rocky, hit him again in the ribs and keep punching Houston, you’ll wear ‘em down in the double digit rounds and so we got to Final Score: Houston 23…LABolts 22, last man standing on the field, will it be Thor’s Hammer seeking Revenge on those who dare bet against him?

Final Score: Houston 22...LA Chargers 21
 
TEN at INDY (-3) (42.5)

-I guess the upset on KC last week and I’m instructed to write “They’re back!” But the reality is I still have very little faith in the Colts, must see some consistency. I could say similar for Tennessee but they played the Giants close and were blown out by Buffalo, that can happen to anyone. They managed to fend off the Raiders and are lined up to go on the road to steal a game vs a Division rival.

-I want to believe the Titans can win this game but as I do my research I do find a different story as I will share.

QB: Titans allow 250+ 2.75 TDs roughly per game, that means Matt Ryan should be a solid option for DFS but most redrafts he could be on the waiver wire this week. He’s been awful this season.
Tannehill will be able to find success but that might be 240 yds and 1-2 TD, both QBs benefit from strong RBs that occupy the defense especially the F7.

RB: Both Taylor and Henry will have good days, Taylor likely to be stronger since the Titans allow the 5th most FF to opposing RBs, even though Taylor has been below average, this week he is Top 5 material. Henry should easily be Top 20 this week, has a good chance to hit top 10 if he can find the end zone. Vegas is calling for a lower scoring game.

WR: Pittman has Top 10 upside as long as he's healthy this week. Titans allow a gob of points to WRs, if you need to read 100/TD to make you feel better this week, that’s definitely on the table here. It would be unusual if he did poorly this week. Don’t expect much from Indy TEs, the Titans are actually good at shutting down opposing TEs thus far, but again focus on the WRs, they allow almost the most.

Final Score: Indy 24…Tennessee 21, wanted to take the Titans but the data does not support that. They also allow 43% of drives to end in a score. If Henry gets going and breaks off a few, open the passing lanes up and make it easy for Tannehill, maybe a different outcome but it looks like the Titans could slip to 1-3.
 
CHI at NYG (-3) (39)

-At first glance you see a low scoring prediction but is that really what we have here? The Bears game totaled 43 last week with Houston on the field, certainly Barkley and Daniel Jones offer more of a match than last week.

-The Bears have faced Trey Lance, Aaron Rodgers and Davis from Houston, one of those three is a HoF QB and they lost that game. Daniel Jones has many starts under his belt at this point but he’s certainly beatable. These defenses are not massively different except the Bears rarely force a turnover, no interceptions on the season.

QB: Fields might have a better day than Jones. Neither should be relied on for starting in redrafts. If you’re rebuilding and want to get closer to a higher 1st Rd pick in Dynasty, be my guest.

RB: Herbert has seized control, can he keep it rolling this week vs New York or are you chasing points? Only way to know is to start him, he’s Top 12 most places under the assumption Monty misses time especially this coming Sunday.

Saquon is a weekly must start as long as he is healthy and taking the field. He’s dangerous and is starting to get his sea legs under him. 125 total yds, TD, 4 catches, most will run to the bank with that every week.

WR: Shepard is gone for the year and that means opportunity and targets to go around. I would assume this is going to feel like a WRBBC for a week or two until we have it all figured out.

Still cannot trust a Bears WR or TE right now.

Final Score: NY Giants 21…Chicago 17
 
JAX at PHILLY (-6.5) (48)

-Early season Inter-Conference match up with back stories galore including the former Super Bowl winning coach bringing his new toys to the City of Brotherly Love. I expect a decent round of applause for him mostly because Philly is 3-0 and it would be good sportsman to acknowledge what he accomplished and also bringing a perennial loser into town with a winning record and some optimism for the 2022 season. That’s part of the story, you should also be aware of some of these stats the two teams have racked up defensively.

QB: Philly sports a league BEST 4 yds per attempt on Pass Defense, think about that, only 4 yds allowed and that adds up to under 190 yds passing they allow opposing QBs, could be a long day for Trevor Lawrence if things don’t break his way. Hurts should do his usual thing with perhaps one exception. Rushing yds may not be as easily available to him as Jacksonville is one of the absolute best vs the run allowing just 3 yd per rush attempt, they are strong against the run.

RB: Miles Sanders could see a miserable time on Sunday, low percentage he produces like an RB1 or RB2 type. I do think both James Robinson and Travis Etienne will see a lot of action as Philly allows a whopping 5.4 yds per carry, can we get someone committed to the run? I expect some chunk runs for both RBs, one or the other or both.

WR: AJB and Smith should be in your weekly starting line ups. Sometimes both of them hit, sometimes it will lean more towards one over the other but both are capable of hitting the Top 15-20 every week, perhaps not at the same time but some weeks they will. This week they offer the best options to try and hurt the Jags with.

Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have been producing at a high level especially Kirk. I would not start Zay Jones on the road in Philly. Even Kirk may be held in check for the first time this season. You have to keep plugging him in as a WR3/Flex where you drafted him but this week could be off.

Philly drives on Defense that end in scores? 21%, one of the best in the NFL, 5th overall
Jax’ville drives on Defense that end in scores? 18%, an even better number, 3rd overall
-MoP is taking the UNDER this week

Final Score: Philly 20…Jacksonville 19, going to be a lot closer than this odds line is set right now. Jacksonville must continue to run the ball the entire game and take pressure off Lawrence, allowing him to occasionally drop back and have a little time to deliver the football.
 
NYJ at PITT (-3.5) (40.5)

-This contest is boring and by that I mean when you dig thru the stats you are left underwhelmed and wonder if either team can really exploit the weaknesses with the personnel they are running out there.

QB: Is Flacco giving way for Zach Wison this week? (It appears he is!) Could you trust running Trubisky out there to take advantage of a team allowing 230 yds and 2.5 TDs a game? He could be the guy that decreases their stats and makes them appear stronger next week, we just don’t know.

RB: The Jets are surprisingly strong vs the run, 3.7 yds per carry allowed. Start Harris but don’t expect a huge day. The Steelers are not as good vs the run allowing 4.2 yd a clip and 140 yds per game, the Jets would be wise to run Carter and Hall frequently this week.

WR: The Jets have several talented WRs, Elijah Moore has been mostly quiet and Garrett Wilson has been noticeable almost every week since he entered the league. Should be exciting when Wilson takes the controls back. You even have Corey Davis that makes appearances. Can both Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool hit the stat box this week? Dangerous to venture past Johnson most of the time.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 19…NY Jets 17 and the Jets have a chance to steal this game with some QB momentum if Zach is ready to roll and shows immediate improvement from last season with all of his new weapons at his disposal.
 
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AZ at CAR (-1.5) (43)

-Arizona has one of the worst ranked overall defenses. 57% of all drives started on their defense end with a TD or a FG…You go back to the Playoff game last year where afterwards Murray said “We weren’t even competitive” and then you see what they have opened the season with. An off season that was all about Murray’s pile of money and the team wanting special items added to his contract like watching film and studying and doing things that other QBs seem to do naturally and they felt like they needed to word the contract in a way that shows they don’t trust Murray. There’s going to have to be a change in head coach, it’s just a matter of how soon.

QB: When you have Kyler Murray, even a tougher match up is still a recipe to run havoc on them and terrorize the LBs whether they need to drop back or try and rush him as they whiff on the tackle. The flip side is the Panthers will be facing the 31st ranked defense so on a few lottery DFS tickets you might be brave and roll Baker out there.

WR: Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore should both have some down field targets and even if they don’t here is your STAT of the GAME…Arizona allows the most Yards after Catch of any team in the NFL with over 500 yds already in 3 weeks vs Carolina thus far only 200 yards of YAC.

Hollywood managed to haul in a lot of catches on a lot of targets, bombs away but again the Panthers are deceptively good on defense, especially vs the pass. Zac Ertz was great last week, expect a dip in those numbers.

RB: Conner managed to hang on for another week as the starter and it appears Eno Benjamin has a role as the CoP most weeks, Darrell Williams was not used with Conner available. For Carolina, McCaffrey 25/108 last week, not much of a factor in the passing game.

Final Score: Carolina 23…Arizona 20
 
NE at GB (-10.5) (40)

-Mac Jones being out and Bobby Hoyer starting will change a lot of what would have been a pretty fun game but the loss of Jones is going to cripple the offense IMHO.

QB: Aaron Rodgers is facing a pass defense that gives up 200/2TD a week, he’ll test them and work the secondary in the red zone.

WR: Doubs seems to be the lead WR right now alongside Lazard, those are the safest bets. The Patriots are dealing with starting QB gone so I would temper enthusiasm with any of the WRs until we see who Hoyer targets frequently. I bet he might find the Tight Ends that have been mostly absent.

RB: 4 RBs of note. Damien harris might have appeared to lose ground to Rhamondre but this situation is going to roll back and forth, quite frankly with no QB threat, most defenses are going to be looking to shut them down so unless the Patriots can run block exceptionally well, I don’t think they will move the football much.

Jones and Dillon saw one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, don’t get too upset. The Patriots are close to 5 yds a carry allowed on rush defense, that’s encouraging. I would not hesitate to start both of them this week. Packers only need 2 TDs to win this game, 3 will be more than enough.

Neither team seems to yield a lot of FF points thus far to opposing RBs, still feel the combo of the Packers will prevail at Lambeau.

Final Score: Packers 24…Patriots 12
 
DEN at LVR (-2.5) (45.5)

-The Broncos allow the 3rd least amount of FF points to opposing RBs vs the Raiders allow the 3rd highest.

-The Broncos allow the 4th least amount of FF points to opposing QB vs the Raiders allow the the 4th highest.

-The Broncos allow an NFL best in limiting opposing Wide Receivers, Devante Adams will have his work cut out and could be a below normal week for those that always start him. Not much you can do and he still might be his usual self because he’s Devante Adams but this team is not operating at the high level many were expecting.

-I would not hesitate to play Williams and Gordon for Denver. Sutton has been solid and Jeudy expects to play this week but Sutton has been more reliable thus far. Is Wilson worth a roll of the dice? I would continue to bench him until he shows some stability in this offense.

-The Raiders are a mess right now. Adams and Waller are always a threat, Renfrow was injured last week due to a concussion, he should be back in the starting lineup for Las Vegas.

Final Score: Denver 23…Las Vegas 22
 
KC at TB (+2.5) (45)

-The Chiefs are fresh off their first loss s are the Buccaneers. The Chiefs and the Bucs are both tough to run the football against. Chiefs 3.6 per rush and the Bucs 3.8 so one of these QBs is going to likely win the day.

-The Chiefs allow 230 and between 2-2.5 TD per game but most teams are trying to catch up or stay with them so this number is always going to be a little on the higher side. The Bucs allow 210 and a TD but they also grab a couple interceptions each week and have 8 turnovers on the season to just 2.

-The Bucs will have at least Mike Evans back this week and hopefully start to resemble an NFL offense. I doubt Gage can duplicate his numbers from a week ago. Julio Jones is questionable and Chris Godwin likely to miss another game.

QB: Both Mahomes and Brady factor to be below average when you look at available weapons and the pass defenses as a whole. I wouldn’t rush Brady out there if you have other options.

RB: Fournette is a must start every week. He should factor into the passing game quite a bit.

KC is in that RBBC mode at the moment. CEH 7 carries and not a single yard, pitiful. McKinnon was 7/20, not much to get excited about. Tampa Bay is not going to be the team they find success on.

WR: Mike Evans is a must start, all other Bucs receivers will pale in comparison this weekend. JJSS did what I predicted last week when I asked who took his lunch money? And he responds with 5/89, leads all WRs and this week he might not see 50 yds but he is the receiver you want right now in this offense. Some weeks will be big and others not but for the investment most made, he’s a WR3/4 and sometimes a good flex option. His best days are ahead.

Final Score: Bucs 23…Kansas City 20
 
LAR at SF (-2.5) (42)

-I’m going to hit you with many stats but let’s start with another entry into the Stat of the Week category, the Niners hold a league BEST 36.5% of all opposing QB drop backs END with a QBHit, QBPressure or QBSack, over a third of the time the QB has no time. The Rams answer with an NFL LOW, that’s right dead last with Aaron Donald anchoring the line, 11.4% so let’s start off with this and let it simmer in the brain as we follow along.

-The Niners allow less than 150 yds passing per game, on the season they have allowed a total of 2 TD vs 3 Int and a low 5 yds per pass attempt by opposing QBs. Try and run the football you say? 2.8 yds a clip and just under 80 yds rushing a game, pick your poison.

QB: Stafford figures to struggle this week. Jimmy G typically manages the game but the Rams have been somewhat soft vs the pass, especially when they get ahead.

WR: Kupp is always dangerous even when the numbers say he should be below average for Kupp standards. Last week just 66 yds a TD, that’s a mild week most of the time. ARob3 is still just a sneeze in this offense. Outside of Deebo Samuel you take a big risk on the Niners side.

RB: Jeff Wilson to this point is getting a majority of the touches, continue to use him in your starting lineup but it’s more of a low side RB2 right now. Cam Akers appears to be the starting RB for now. Henderson only saw 4 carries last week, that’s not worth the risk to insert him.

Final Score: San Fran 18…LA Rams 17
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre T.J. and Amon-Ra.
 
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BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre and Amon-Ra.
Click to expand...
Agree... Really looking like Jamaal Williams will be a nice play this week.
 
Thursday said:
BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre and Amon-Ra.
Click to expand...
Agree... Really looking like Jamaal Williams will be a nice play this week.
Click to expand...

Sorry meant to write T.J. & Amon-Ra.

D’Andre is almost surely out the next 2 weeks unless something changes.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre and Amon-Ra.
Click to expand...
And that's why we post these up in the SP vs sitting on my thoughts. That would change a lot of things. I understand why the Lions might be cautious with Amon

Something to watch leading into Sunday, whoever starts for Detroit should be heavily involved.

-Or Seattle is the upset of the week taking +6 right now...
 
Ministry of Pain said:
-Or Seattle is the upset of the week taking +6 right now...
Click to expand...

Smart money. Seattle wasn’t that good last year & they boat raced us.

No idea how the mood of the team is tbh. The city was in an uproar after pissing away the Vikings game (10 pt lead, questionable decision making.) Locker rooms <=> fan base so probably NBD.

But missing 5-6 offensive starters is a lot to overcome. Goff is the only healthy skill position player & we’ll continue to use backups at both guard spots. Team has good depth but it’s def a challenging week for them.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:

Again, my thoughts and prayers to places like Cape Coral this evening.
Click to expand...

My niece is there (CC), holed up with two friends & 5 dogs. Haven’t heard from her since the power went out just before 9am.
Click to expand...
Hopefully things are alright but I have to share in all my years, never seen so much water from a storm surge, water coming up to rooftop areas, very scary near the coastlines.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
My mother in law rolled into town over the weekend and then Hurricane Ian arrived and so she was only going to be in my house for a night or two. When the storm approached, my wife decided to cancel their hotel room where they planned on staying a couple nights. Why would anyone want to enjoy the beach in the rain?…I volunteered to go to the rainy motel room on the beach with my laptop and my igloo cube full of Hi-Neighbor Tall Boys by Narangasett but was shot down before I could launch from Alert-5!

I did manage to find a keyboard and a Herman Miller to cozy up to with online updates on Ian from the local NBC/ABC affiliate out of Ft Myers (youtube it). I was hitting an open bottle of red wine at 4am on Monday Morning and got very into my “research” for this write up. My MiL is of course stranded here in my living room and house for the rest of the week, please add me to your prayers list.

I hope you find an adult beverage and let me entertain you for a few minutes. All comments and contrarian points of view are welcome. Godspeed to our friends on the Southwest Coast of Florida today, this one is for all of you.



Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (47) Bengals sporting All White uniforms

-How does Miami manage to knock off Buffalo 21-19 being outgained 500 to 200 yds?
-How is Miami 3-0 but have given up the 2nd most pass yds trailing only Balt?
-How is Miami undefeated with less than 1% of opposing QB dropbacks end w/ QBH?

QB: Burrow should have no problems finding his receivers vs Miami which is down a starting Cornerback-B.Jones. They have suffered thru Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks and will likely get torched again this week by one of the best in the NFL. Compounding the problem for Miami would be their lack of pass rush. Burrow is a top 10 projected QB this week and could go higher. When you factor in QBH/QBP/QBS, Miami is the 4th worst in the NFL, Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart at home.

Tua on the other hand will be facing a Top 10 Defense this season again in Week 4. The Bengals have only yielded 2 passing TDs on Defense and being a short week, the fact he is injured with what is described as a loose back and visually many of us thought he had a concussion. You’re best leaving this alone.

WR: Chase and Higgins will be just fine and produce but Hill and Waddle will have some serious challenges finding enough targets and catches vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have not seen the talent Miami runs onto the field but they managed to slow down the Steelers, Cowboys(No Dak) and the Jets so obviously this is their biggest challenge of the season. Hill was only 2/33 last week and Waddle was 4/103.

RB:Mixon was injured last week and finished with 12/27 on the ground. Played his least amount of snaps on the season but is being counted on to start at RB this week on Thursday Night.

Chase Edwards managed 2 TDs last week but limited touches overall and he was just a whopping 15 points in Redrafts. The Miami running game has to be near the bottom of the NFL, you should usually pass on this since Miami cannot run the football effectively.

Final Score: Cincinnati 27…Miami 17, The Dolphins are 3-0 but very susceptible to a loss this week.
Click to expand...
All of this is extremely rational and logical which is why the Dolphins will probably win. My guess is Mostert goes off since that makes the least possible sense.
 
TwinTurbo said:
Ministry of Pain said:
My mother in law rolled into town over the weekend and then Hurricane Ian arrived and so she was only going to be in my house for a night or two. When the storm approached, my wife decided to cancel their hotel room where they planned on staying a couple nights. Why would anyone want to enjoy the beach in the rain?…I volunteered to go to the rainy motel room on the beach with my laptop and my igloo cube full of Hi-Neighbor Tall Boys by Narangasett but was shot down before I could launch from Alert-5!

I did manage to find a keyboard and a Herman Miller to cozy up to with online updates on Ian from the local NBC/ABC affiliate out of Ft Myers (youtube it). I was hitting an open bottle of red wine at 4am on Monday Morning and got very into my “research” for this write up. My MiL is of course stranded here in my living room and house for the rest of the week, please add me to your prayers list.

I hope you find an adult beverage and let me entertain you for a few minutes. All comments and contrarian points of view are welcome. Godspeed to our friends on the Southwest Coast of Florida today, this one is for all of you.



Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (47) Bengals sporting All White uniforms

-How does Miami manage to knock off Buffalo 21-19 being outgained 500 to 200 yds?
-How is Miami 3-0 but have given up the 2nd most pass yds trailing only Balt?
-How is Miami undefeated with less than 1% of opposing QB dropbacks end w/ QBH?

QB: Burrow should have no problems finding his receivers vs Miami which is down a starting Cornerback-B.Jones. They have suffered thru Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks and will likely get torched again this week by one of the best in the NFL. Compounding the problem for Miami would be their lack of pass rush. Burrow is a top 10 projected QB this week and could go higher. When you factor in QBH/QBP/QBS, Miami is the 4th worst in the NFL, Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart at home.

Tua on the other hand will be facing a Top 10 Defense this season again in Week 4. The Bengals have only yielded 2 passing TDs on Defense and being a short week, the fact he is injured with what is described as a loose back and visually many of us thought he had a concussion. You’re best leaving this alone.

WR: Chase and Higgins will be just fine and produce but Hill and Waddle will have some serious challenges finding enough targets and catches vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have not seen the talent Miami runs onto the field but they managed to slow down the Steelers, Cowboys(No Dak) and the Jets so obviously this is their biggest challenge of the season. Hill was only 2/33 last week and Waddle was 4/103.

RB:Mixon was injured last week and finished with 12/27 on the ground. Played his least amount of snaps on the season but is being counted on to start at RB this week on Thursday Night.

Chase Edwards managed 2 TDs last week but limited touches overall and he was just a whopping 15 points in Redrafts. The Miami running game has to be near the bottom of the NFL, you should usually pass on this since Miami cannot run the football effectively.

Final Score: Cincinnati 27…Miami 17, The Dolphins are 3-0 but very susceptible to a loss this week.
Click to expand...
All of this is extremely rational and logical which is why the Dolphins will probably win. My guess is Mostert goes off since that makes the least possible sense.
Click to expand...
Read the Cinci-Miami capsule slowly, it's grounded in well published stats/logic. Seems like Cinci needs this win a lot more than Miami, short week, Miami just trying to survive in one piece, Cinci should roll this Thursday Night on Amazon
 
Ministry of Pain said:
BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre and Amon-Ra.
Click to expand...
And that's why we post these up in the SP vs sitting on my thoughts. That would change a lot of things. I understand why the Lions might be cautious with Amon

Something to watch leading into Sunday, whoever starts for Detroit should be heavily involved.

-Or Seattle is the upset of the week taking +6 right now...
Click to expand...
Yeah if the Lions top 2 offensive players are out (Swift & Amon), I'm not sure what to make of their offense. Both defenses are terrible, as you said.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
TwinTurbo said:
Ministry of Pain said:
My mother in law rolled into town over the weekend and then Hurricane Ian arrived and so she was only going to be in my house for a night or two. When the storm approached, my wife decided to cancel their hotel room where they planned on staying a couple nights. Why would anyone want to enjoy the beach in the rain?…I volunteered to go to the rainy motel room on the beach with my laptop and my igloo cube full of Hi-Neighbor Tall Boys by Narangasett but was shot down before I could launch from Alert-5!

I did manage to find a keyboard and a Herman Miller to cozy up to with online updates on Ian from the local NBC/ABC affiliate out of Ft Myers (youtube it). I was hitting an open bottle of red wine at 4am on Monday Morning and got very into my “research” for this write up. My MiL is of course stranded here in my living room and house for the rest of the week, please add me to your prayers list.

I hope you find an adult beverage and let me entertain you for a few minutes. All comments and contrarian points of view are welcome. Godspeed to our friends on the Southwest Coast of Florida today, this one is for all of you.



Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (47) Bengals sporting All White uniforms

-How does Miami manage to knock off Buffalo 21-19 being outgained 500 to 200 yds?
-How is Miami 3-0 but have given up the 2nd most pass yds trailing only Balt?
-How is Miami undefeated with less than 1% of opposing QB dropbacks end w/ QBH?

QB: Burrow should have no problems finding his receivers vs Miami which is down a starting Cornerback-B.Jones. They have suffered thru Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks and will likely get torched again this week by one of the best in the NFL. Compounding the problem for Miami would be their lack of pass rush. Burrow is a top 10 projected QB this week and could go higher. When you factor in QBH/QBP/QBS, Miami is the 4th worst in the NFL, Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart at home.

Tua on the other hand will be facing a Top 10 Defense this season again in Week 4. The Bengals have only yielded 2 passing TDs on Defense and being a short week, the fact he is injured with what is described as a loose back and visually many of us thought he had a concussion. You’re best leaving this alone.

WR: Chase and Higgins will be just fine and produce but Hill and Waddle will have some serious challenges finding enough targets and catches vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have not seen the talent Miami runs onto the field but they managed to slow down the Steelers, Cowboys(No Dak) and the Jets so obviously this is their biggest challenge of the season. Hill was only 2/33 last week and Waddle was 4/103.

RB:Mixon was injured last week and finished with 12/27 on the ground. Played his least amount of snaps on the season but is being counted on to start at RB this week on Thursday Night.

Chase Edwards managed 2 TDs last week but limited touches overall and he was just a whopping 15 points in Redrafts. The Miami running game has to be near the bottom of the NFL, you should usually pass on this since Miami cannot run the football effectively.

Final Score: Cincinnati 27…Miami 17, The Dolphins are 3-0 but very susceptible to a loss this week.
Click to expand...
All of this is extremely rational and logical which is why the Dolphins will probably win. My guess is Mostert goes off since that makes the least possible sense.
Click to expand...
Read the Cinci-Miami capsule slowly, it's grounded in well published stats/logic. Seems like Cinci needs this win a lot more than Miami, short week, Miami just trying to survive in one piece, Cinci should roll this Thursday Night on Amazon
Click to expand...
Yeah that's why Miami will probably win because it makes little sense that they would. That's what usually happens on Thu games.
 
TwinTurbo said:
Yeah if the Lions top 2 offensive players are out (Swift & Amon), I'm not sure what to make of their offense. Both defenses are terrible, as you said.
Click to expand...

It’s a bit like basketball, sometime you get weird combinations on the floor and it’s like “hey where’s the scoring going come from?” Don’t see any other alphas other than those two (even if Hock plays.) Those two elevate their teammates.
 
BobbyLayne said:
TwinTurbo said:
Yeah if the Lions top 2 offensive players are out (Swift & Amon), I'm not sure what to make of their offense. Both defenses are terrible, as you said.
Click to expand...

It’s a bit like basketball, sometime you get weird combinations on the floor and it’s like “hey where’s the scoring going come from?” Don’t see any other alphas other than those two (even if Hock plays.) Those two elevate their teammates.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's next man up in these scenarios, even if the Lions depth is mostly castoffs from other teams.
 
thanks MOP. Be careful with the Bengals, they've beaten the Jets, lost to a backup QB on what is really a lousy Dallas team, and they lost to a lousy Steelers team. I don't care that they have home field, the line seems skewed here. Fins are battle-tested , coming from behind to beat Baltimore and impressively beating everyone's SB favorite Buffalo Bills. The level of their opponents is far superior to that of the Bengals. +3.5 seems like a lot of pts to give Miami in this game.

Washington getting 3 in Dallas seems like a good bet. This is probably another one of those 3TD 1INT games from Wentz. I hate to say it, but the glass slipper need to be returned before midnight. I think the bell tolls for Rush here. 2 minutes to midnight.

GB giving 10.5 wow. Normally I would say BB would cover this but I doubt it happens here. Doubs and Co might get early work but this has the look and feel of a game where the GB rushing attack takes charge , up big, late 3rd and the entire 4th quarter.

Jets getting 3.5 against a pathetic Steelers team? this is the kind of game where the Jets catch lightning in a bottle and win outright. just feels like that, anyways.

I love your call on Houston winning.
Jags cover,
Raiders get their first win here. how many pts do the Raiders average per game vs the pts the Broncos avg in games? I think the Raiders can get up big early, and hide. I have zero faith in 'can't' Hackett. This guy sux as a head coach. McD knows what he's doing , Raiders have been close to wins all year, while the Broncos have been close to defeats.
Take the Raiders giving 2.5 they win it outright.big. This might be the 'get out the frustration' game for them, @ home, against a hated rival.
 
Tanner9919 said:
thanks MOP. Be careful with the Bengals, they've beaten the Jets, lost to a backup QB on what is really a lousy Dallas team, and they lost to a lousy Steelers team. I don't care that they have home field, the line seems skewed here. Fins are battle-tested , coming from behind to beat Baltimore and impressively beating everyone's SB favorite Buffalo Bills. The level of their opponents is far superior to that of the Bengals. +3.5 seems like a lot of pts to give Miami in this game.

Washington getting 3 in Dallas seems like a good bet. This is probably another one of those 3TD 1INT games from Wentz. I hate to say it, but the glass slipper need to be returned before midnight. I think the bell tolls for Rush here. 2 minutes to midnight.

GB giving 10.5 wow. Normally I would say BB would cover this but I doubt it happens here. Doubs and Co might get early work but this has the look and feel of a game where the GB rushing attack takes charge , up big, late 3rd and the entire 4th quarter.

Jets getting 3.5 against a pathetic Steelers team? this is the kind of game where the Jets catch lightning in a bottle and win outright. just feels like that, anyways.

I love your call on Houston winning.
Jags cover,
Raiders get their first win here. how many pts do the Raiders average per game vs the pts the Broncos avg in games? I think the Raiders can get up big early, and hide. I have zero faith in 'can't' Hackett. This guy sux as a head coach. McD knows what he's doing , Raiders have been close to wins all year, while the Broncos have been close to defeats.
Take the Raiders giving 2.5 they win it outright.big. This might be the 'get out the frustration' game for them, @ home, against a hated rival.
Click to expand...

Agree
Dolphins about to kick that ***. Bengals don't belong
 
Some bold calls this week MoP. Couple thoughts:

I think Lamar as an avoid is really bold. I think he's more a bad matchup for Buffalo than they are for him. Bills are very banged up in the secondary right now. I like the Ravens there.

Even with all the injuries, Texans over Chargers is super bold. Part of me thinks this is the Ekeler blow up week his owners have been waiting for. It probably needs to be with Herbert's health.

I think this is the season for Vegas, they have to show up this week, and Denver hasn't been impressive at all. I think this is a sneaky Raider blowout. Broncos yet to top 16 points in a game this season, despite a pretty easy schedule.

Lastly, 49ers over Rams feels bold, 49ers OL is in shambles. I'd also argue that SF's pass defense isn't really as good as the stats make it seem, it's just that they faced Fields, Geno, and a clearly struggling Wilson.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (47) Bengals sporting All White uniforms

-How does Miami manage to knock off Buffalo 21-19 being outgained 500 to 200 yds?
-How is Miami 3-0 but have given up the 2nd most pass yds trailing only Balt?
-How is Miami undefeated with less than 1% of opposing QB dropbacks end w/ QBH?

QB: Burrow should have no problems finding his receivers vs Miami which is down a starting Cornerback-B.Jones. They have suffered thru Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks and will likely get torched again this week by one of the best in the NFL. Compounding the problem for Miami would be their lack of pass rush. Burrow is a top 10 projected QB this week and could go higher. When you factor in QBH/QBP/QBS, Miami is the 4th worst in the NFL, Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart at home.

Tua on the other hand will be facing a Top 10 Defense this season again in Week 4. The Bengals have only yielded 2 passing TDs on Defense and being a short week, the fact he is injured with what is described as a loose back and visually many of us thought he had a concussion. You’re best leaving this alone.

WR: Chase and Higgins will be just fine and produce but Hill and Waddle will have some serious challenges finding enough targets and catches vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have not seen the talent Miami runs onto the field but they managed to slow down the Steelers, Cowboys(No Dak) and the Jets so obviously this is their biggest challenge of the season. Hill was only 2/33 last week and Waddle was 4/103.

RB:Mixon was injured last week and finished with 12/27 on the ground. Played his least amount of snaps on the season but is being counted on to start at RB this week on Thursday Night.

Chase Edwards managed 2 TDs last week but limited touches overall and he was just a whopping 15 points in Redrafts. The Miami running game has to be near the bottom of the NFL, you should usually pass on this since Miami cannot run the football effectively.

Final Score: Cincinnati 27…Miami 17, The Dolphins are 3-0 but very susceptible to a loss this week.
Click to expand...
This one was predicted close but I feel like if Tua was in the game the whole way, things might have ended differently
15-14 Phins 2nd Half before the wheels came off.

I'll update some fo the other games over the weekend. I write these on M/T so injuries like Keenan Allen who i read was OUT this weekend, that matters when we are trying to gauge the outcomes and potential production by FF starters.
 
The potential of Doubs-RWR, Lazard-SWR(Cobb is toast) and Watson-LWR, that trio could cause a lot of damage with Rodgers flinging the football all over the place.
Christian Watson is NOT on the injury report and despite a lot of targets and catches, Doubs didn't exactly display something like what we saw Watson drop...I think Watson will eventually display the 4/100/TD you crave from green bay but that's just my opinion, let's see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks.
 
Winston is doubtful, Red Rider to the rescue? Think the Saints are starting to hit a tailspin that could last a while.

34 year old Andy Dalton, pass for me
 
Ministry of Pain said:
The potential of Doubs-RWR, Lazard-SWR(Cobb is toast) and Watson-LWR, that trio could cause a lot of damage with Rodgers flinging the football all over the place.
Christian Watson is NOT on the injury report and despite a lot of targets and catches, Doubs didn't exactly display something like what we saw Watson drop...I think Watson will eventually display the 4/100/TD you crave from green bay but that's just my opinion, let's see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks.
Click to expand...
Ideally that would happen, but I think perhaps more than any other QB in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers is a trust-based guy, and I don't see Cobb going away anytime soon, nor do I see 2 rookies being that relied upon. Not saying Cobb has fantasy value by any means, but I think he's going to continue to see a generous amount of playing time, that people who aren't Rodgers would prefer to go elsewhere.
 
travdogg said:
Ministry of Pain said:
The potential of Doubs-RWR, Lazard-SWR(Cobb is toast) and Watson-LWR, that trio could cause a lot of damage with Rodgers flinging the football all over the place.
Christian Watson is NOT on the injury report and despite a lot of targets and catches, Doubs didn't exactly display something like what we saw Watson drop...I think Watson will eventually display the 4/100/TD you crave from green bay but that's just my opinion, let's see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks.
Click to expand...
Ideally that would happen, but I think perhaps more than any other QB in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers is a trust-based guy, and I don't see Cobb going away anytime soon, nor do I see 2 rookies being that relied upon. Not saying Cobb has fantasy value by any means, but I think he's going to continue to see a generous amount of playing time, that people who aren't Rodgers would prefer to go elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Very reminiscent of Philip Rivers tunnel vision for Keenan Allen back in the day. Idk if it will be Cobb, I think he's willing to move on to someone more capable who clearly has more in the tank. But Rodgers does have that 1-man tunnel vision thing going on.
 
Exploit: Rashaad Penny

Detroit 6 rush TDs in 3 Games
Too many RBs touch the ball but they paid this man like a starting RB, they should use him while they can.
You should too
Biggest game of the year but that isn't saying much.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.
Click to expand...

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre T.J. and Amon-Ra.
Click to expand...
OUT from everything I saw last 24 hours
Thanks for the heads up on this one. I like Detroit a little less tomorrow
 
Ministry of Pain said:
LAC at Houston (+5) (44)

-The Texans surprisingly rank in the middle overall on Defense. They still give up a whopping 410 yds per game but its split pretty even on the ground and thru the air, and since the NFL seems to value the pass a lot more these days, the fact they only give up 200 yds of passing per game masks the fact they can’t stop most teams who are committed to running the football. Is LAC committed? Hmmmm, I smell potential upset brewing here or at least another tie ball game for Lovie.

QB: Herbert played last week but safe to say he was not himself. The loss of Slater on the OL cannot be understated and impacts this offense going the rest of the way. Typically when a Tackle is injured and misses time, it impacts the ability to drop back and throw long passes. Herbert will now look even more to the short game which favors Keenan Allen so if you like a buy low, might not be nay cheaper to get him.

RB: Ekeler has been a major disappointment in the running game. It’s not like anyone else is a better option. Austin did manage a respectable 8/48 receiving but the return on investment has not been there so far. On the other side I think most pierce investors are delighted with the return heading into Week 4. There is no doubt Pierce is the starter and he’s in line for 60-80-100 yds a week any Sunday, some will be lower but he’s close to the only weapon they have outside of the guy I list at WR.

WR: Brandin Cooks and Pierce at RB and that’s it for Houston right now. Easy to track. For the LAC, I mentioned Keenan Allen and as long as he is a go, stand to be the recipient of a short passing game with Herbert throwing him quick accurate passes. Mike Williams is a wildcard and Palmer will slide down with Allen in the mix. Everett had 6 targets last week, only produced 2/25. Brandin Cooks was the highest targeted Houston WR with 7 last week, follow the targets.

-The Chargers lack the running game to exploit the Houston Texans which is why I think we might have an upset brewing in Texas this weekend. You add to the fact the Bolts allow 45% of their drives on defense to end in a score of one type or another, I see an opportunity for a steal by the Texans or something closer than many predict. Chargers are allowing 250 yds and almost 2.5TD thru the air weekly, you bet Cooks should find his this weekend.

One more stat to scare the beJesus out of you, Houston ranks 5th in QB pressures which include (hurries+knockdowns+sacks) and the Chargers lost a Tackle, I feel like Mickey in Rocky, hit him again in the ribs and keep punching Houston, you’ll wear ‘em down in the double digit rounds and so we got to Final Score: Houston 23…LABolts 22, last man standing on the field, will it be Thor’s Hammer seeking Revenge on those who dare bet against him?

Final Score: Houston 22...LA Chargers 21
Click to expand...
Did I see Keenan Allen is OUT?
 
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