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Exploit/Avoid tonight Baltimore at Denver (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
It would seem more and more that in most leagues the week in week out decisions are more about who you will start at QB assuming you don't have Brees and also at WR where many of us gobbled up 4 or 5 we really liked before the 10th round in these redrafts. So it's time to evolve and not focus solely on the RB but more with the way things have evolved. Some folks might have 3 starting RBs to choose from but most are lucky if they have 2 solid options there every week. So let's discuss tonight's game.

Baltimore: Rice is a must start but outside of that you might have a lot of options or should. Many owners who have Torrey Smith acquired him as either a WR2 or 3 so I imagine you want to play him tonight. He looked pretty good last year in Denver. Almost certainly you have better options than Joe Flacco so you likely are not thinking about him tonight although 250/2TD would not surprise me at all. Outside of that this is going to be a wait and see for most owners at any of the other positions.

Denver: I am actually thinking of sitting Manning in favor of Tony Romo this week if that offers some perspective. I think Denver might come out of the gate a little slow much like last year before they hit their stride for the run in the middle to later part of the year. I want to see it all work for a week and there are so many juicy match ups in the coming weeks ahead. Still I could understand why many owners would start him but in most leagues I saw him go around round 5ish so it's not unlikely an owner didn't grab perhaps Luck or someone else 4-5 rounds later. Beyond that the RB position is a real leap of faith. Can't recommend any of them from my POV. Thomas has to be a must start, I would also start Decker but Welker might disappoint tonight. We'll see how this shakes out. I also would skip the Denver TE spot for now until we see how much the rewards will be.

Final Score: Baltimore 24...Denver 21, opening night upset (Super Bowl Champs?) and defenses are usually ahead of the offenses week 1 so don't get unnerved tonight if your guy doesn't light the world up.

Who do you like tonight and how do you see the game shaking out?

 
Two words.... Marlon.....Brown.

I think Flacco might have a pretty good night tonight with no Von Miller and no Champ Bailey. (And Dumervil on the other sideline)

 
I am rolling the dice with Thomas in one league, sitting him in the other. So I am not 100% sold, but week 1 seems to always have a few out of nowhere breakout players that other teams don't have much film on. I think JT could be one of those guys this week as the Ravens likely have gameplanned against DT, Decker, Welker.

 
whose got the stones to start marlon brown..

I feel like if I start him hes gonna have 1 catch for 2 yards.

if i Dont its gonna be 5 for 100 and 2 tds or something wild

 
MOP I don't think these defenses are as good as they were last year and the offenses will move the ball at will. Big night, big plays and big scores.

 
I realize that Baltimore v.2013 does not equal v.2012. But In 2 games last year, Broncos players totaled the following in the receiving game:

Decker 14-217-1

Dreessen 8-82-0

DThomas 7-50-1

Stokley 4-41-1

Tamme 3-44-0

Hillman 3-20-0

Moreno 2-8-0

Hester 1-7-0

Willis 1-4-0

 
I realize that Baltimore v.2013 does not equal v.2012. But In 2 games last year, Broncos players totaled the following in the receiving game:

Decker 14-217-1

Dreessen 8-82-0

DThomas 7-50-1

Stokley 4-41-1

Tamme 3-44-0

Hillman 3-20-0

Moreno 2-8-0

Hester 1-7-0

Willis 1-4-0
I wouldn't be surprised if Decker does well again tonight. I don't expect him to replicate the numbers forma year ago but tonight seems like a good night for him. He will be on the lesser DB all night, Thomas will be doubled, Welker might be hit or miss game 1, running game struggling.

 
Over 5 leagues i have, peyton, DT, JT, Rice, and recently acquired Marlon

Im sitting JT and Marlon

Also have Woodyard and Arthur Brown in my partial IDP leagues, benched brown in favor of Dansby, am starting Woodyard

 
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I realize that Baltimore v.2013 does not equal v.2012. But In 2 games last year, Broncos players totaled the following in the receiving game:

Decker 14-217-1

Dreessen 8-82-0

DThomas 7-50-1

Stokley 4-41-1

Tamme 3-44-0

Hillman 3-20-0

Moreno 2-8-0

Hester 1-7-0

Willis 1-4-0
Wow, and I'm sitting him

 
I'd start Rice, D-Thom, Welker, Decker, Peyton, Torrey(. Wait and see on Denver RB's and Julius Thomas. Keeping an eye on Marlon Brown, Ed Dickson, and how much Bernard Pierce plays. Think this will be a high scoring game with the Broncos coming out on top by at least 10.

 
I realize that Baltimore v.2013 does not equal v.2012. But In 2 games last year, Broncos players totaled the following in the receiving game:

Decker 14-217-1

Dreessen 8-82-0

DThomas 7-50-1

Stokley 4-41-1

Tamme 3-44-0

Hillman 3-20-0

Moreno 2-8-0

Hester 1-7-0

Willis 1-4-0
I love the projections for Demaryius and Decker, Dreesen already has been ruled out for tonights game though.

 
In various leagues I'm starting Dem Thomas, Welker, Manning, Rice and Torrey, I wouldn't sit any of them. I don't have Decker, I would play him too!

I am sitting Julius Thomas and Ed Dickson though =)

 
Well so much of this is league and roster dependent.

I can see sitting Flacco IF you have a better option ...otoh he could have a good game with against a depleted Bronco DST (Miller and Champ Bailey not playing)

Would be tougher with Peyton but again depends on options - I agree with MOP that I would start Romo vs the Giants over P. Manning THIS week but most teams don't have two qb that good

Rice is a must play and I think Torrey Smith is as well

(any other Raven plays are desperation or wishful thinking IMO)

I think all three of the Denver wideouts are playable and would be started in most leagues but IF you were stacked at WR I could see sitting Welker until we see how he fits in the system and with Peyton.

(I wouldn't play any of their RB although Ball in a TD only league has some merit IF you don't have better options and while Julius Thomas has looked good we really don't know how involved he will be in the gameplan and most teams in 10,12,14 team leagues might have a better start on their roster - BUT good luck if you start him - I have him on my bench this week but would be glad to see him viable)

BOTH kickers are playable at that altitude and with the possiblility it could be a high scoring game

 
I dont know what Manning starting slow last year has to do with this year. New team for him, all new teammates, not really a shocker he wasn't the usual superstart right from the start. Oh yeah, and he just missed an entire season and it was his first game in like 19-20 month.

I cant really see benching Peyton manning, ever, unless you have one of a handful of other guys on your team at QB like Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and maybe a couple other guys with nice matchups.

For some reason I am starting to think Decker is the WR play tonight if you are trying to decide between him and some other tier 2 guys.

But yeah, Dem. Thomas is a must start 16 weeks this year. How could he not be?

 
I don't see any reason why the Ravens should be afraid to throw the ball. Champ, Dumervil, and Von Miller are all pretty good players that they don't have to worry about tonight.

Wouldn't be starting anyone other than Torrey, but there's going to be yards there.

It's too early in the year for an emergency flex, but Jacoby Jones might be alright in that role.

 
I have Marlon Brown on my squad but he will be planted firmly on my bench until he shows in the regular season he is going to contribute.

 
Have to start an OLB, and I'm thinking about benching the typical stud Suggs in favor of the great matchup Robert Mathis has against Oakland (3 points per sack). Sorry if this isn't the place for IDP starts/sits.

 
I haven't felt this way all preseason up until today but for some reason I feel like Julius thomas is going to be one of the biggest breakout stars of 2013 at the TE position.

Noone can deny he's got the skills and the raw athletic ability. He gelled with manning all preseason, and manning lives throwing to his tight ends.

He's a huge redone threat.

He will benefit from defensive attn being paid to the big 3 wrs all year long starting tonight.

I'm pretty sure that Peyton targeted his right ends (tamme and dreesen) somewhere around 130 times in 2012. Presumably some of those will go to welker but let's say 80 targets for thomas and many if those in the red zone...

 
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Thanks MOP I always enjoy reading your stuff.

Interesting to see how good Denver's D is. Lots missing from last year but a lot of motivation. I could see the Ravens putting up 21-30 points. But who knows?

 
I read the stat somewhere over the off season the DT was the most consistent WR in the league last year. He is an automatic plug in into any lineup.

 
I think Pierce might be a decent start with the major subtractions on the Denver D if you're in a deep league.

 
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