Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Carolina at Atlanta (-7)
The Panthers opened with a tough loss to the Bucs, they answered by beating the Saints, then last week were throttled by the World Champs. Who are they? A few plays in the Bucs game and they are 2-1, this game would have a different feel to it. So far they are suffering from very poor play inside particularly in the running game. RG-Geoff Hangartner is killing them inside when they are trying to run thru the “A” gap. Kalil has not been holding up his end of the bargain very well either at Center. They have gotten solid play out of the Tackles Jordan Gross, Byron Bell, and Garry Williams when we talk about pass protection. Those guys are not that good at run blocking but they are creating a pocket for Cam Netwon.
The problems stem from newton not sitting in the pocket, missing receivers, guys dropping balls, and a very poor play call from the OC right now. I believe Carolina could give the Falcons some challenges but they are going to need to make a commitment to running the football. I was reading this week that DWill is slowing down...not when I watch him. I see a guy that if you can create some holes once in awhile that he will gain some chunks of yards. I also think it is a travesty that they do not use him more on screen passes. We’ll come back to the Panthers in a minute.
The team I have been most impressed with are the Falcons. To win the game so easily last week after a MNF game that was draining with the replacement refs, get on a plane a few days later, fly cross country to face a decent San Diego football team and blow them out was spectacular. You have to think there is something going on here and I realize they have to prove it in the playoffs but I like what I see so far. Their OL has been solid and on defense they are playing a lot of 5 and 6 man DB looks partly because they jump out to big leads but also this is part of the Mike nolan philosophy and this defense looks a lot better with many of the same players from last year.
The Falcons have 1 injury that concerns me this week and that is the status of strongside linebacker Stephen Nicholas who has been tremendous on the run support. If Atlanta is going to line up a lot with only 2 LBs and maybe missing their best run support LB, why would Carolina not try and run the ball a lot if there is only 6 in the box? Even if they have 7 but 1-2 of them are DBs, run right at them for goodness sakes. The Panthers have got to wake up and take what defenses are giving them. I wish I knew they would commit to running, it seemed to work against New Orleans. the way to beat Atlanta is run the ball at them, control the clock, limit Ryan, Jones, Gonzo, and White.
I will go out on a limb and say DWill is gonna have a solid day because Stewart is still banged up but perhaps Mike Tolbert will have some secret points this week. He is worth a pick up in best ball leagues. I don’t believe Olsen will have as big a day as last week but I do feel Brandon LaFell will bounce back from a rather poor performance mixed with terrible play calling mixed with awesome DLine play form the Giants last week. This game has a chance to be closer than some might think.
Final Score: Atlanta 27...Carolina 21 25% of me wants to call for the outright upset but the facts are that Atlanta is very good right now.
New England at Buffalo (+4)
I know a lot of folks are calling for a Patriots blowout. Not sure I see it that way but I do question the teams that Buffalo is beating up on the past 2 weeks. Let’s focus on the Bills first and we’ll start with a lot of the good things happening. Rookie LT-Cordy Glenn has allowed no sacks so far on the season and when you have an up n down QB like Fitz, this really helps by allowing more time in the pocket. RG-Craig Urbik who I highlighted before the season is blowing open holes at RG and whenever Fred Jackson is back and CJ Spiller up to speed, the Bills are going to be running wild on teams, that’s not an accident when they put up big numbers on the ground. Teams know they are going to do it and can’t stop them. This week though they have a bange dup backfiled and I’m afraid that is going to cost them this time around as the Patriots will be out for blood after losing a nail biter to the Ravens up 9 with less than 5 minutes to go. One other note about the Bills is the play of Nick Barnett and Kyle williams who ain’t missing a tackle on run support right now. I don’t think the Patriots will be find room to run but I do think Tom Brady has had enough of this BS and playing musical chairs with the receivers. I expect him to pull rank behind the curtains and unleash holy hell on the Bills secondary which has not seen a real good test to this point.
Exploit-Lloyd and Welker, Gronkowski need not stay in and block because I don’t think the Bills will get much pressure on Brady. You cannot sit Gronkowski out but if they do keep him in more to block...only pushes Welker and Lloyd up a few more notches IMO. If Edelman has another sighting this week, we’ll discuss it more but right now the focus needs to be on the primary weapons. New England blew out TN, then got tripped up by a better than anyone though defense in AZ, last week they were controlling the game and lost it at the end against a very good Ravens team. Things will get better in New England, right now is a primo buying opp on all of them.
Buffalo: I would not be in a hurry to rush FJax or Spiller out there, and Choice is not on the same level as those two, not even close. Avoid it this week and besides the Bills will be playing catch up. I like Chandler, Steve Johnson and Donald Jones as the passing game will get a lot of action.
Final Score: New England 28...Buffalo 21
Minnesota at Detroit (-4.5)
The Vikings got the upset last week but if you were reading this you know I called for a San Fran letdown, shoulda called for the Vikes to win outright but certainly felt they would cover the spread. Some good and bad here for Minnesota so let’s cover the angles here so we can see what we are dealing with.
Rookie LT-Matt Kalil...ZERO Sacks allowed so far, guy is looking like a high 1st round pick and the VIkings did the right thing as his PB is allowing the Christian Ponder to develop. I am not blow away by Ponder but he is hanging in there and I think he has a chance to be a solid starting QB if you surround him with enough talent. He cannot do it on his own but he can manage a game and hit guys when he has to. If the Vikings could ever get ADP rolling like in the past, they could be a scary team. RT-Phil Loadholt also has allowed no sacks on the season, there is a reason Ponder has time to set up and throw.
Keys Match Up: Jerome Simpson will be working the deep stuff for the Vikes who have had a lack of a deep threat. I’m not calling for Simpson to rack up huge points this week, he needs a couple games to get up to speed. I do think he will make life much easier for Kyle Rudolph and Percy Harvin to tear the defenses up underneath.
The Lions have sprung a leak on defense as they went from 250 to 349 to a season high 437 yds allowed last week to a pretty inept offense in Tennessee. They have got major holes at Safety so perhaps Simpson will get loose even in his 1st game back. If you own Simpson in a best ball format, lucky you. The Safeties have allowed 10 of 11 to be caught, a 19 ypc avg and 2 TDs...there is room for someone to exploit them this week, gotta think the guy should be Simpson.
The Lions on offense found balance last week. LeShoure was not outstanding but he ran hard and they gave him 30 touches last week which was scary. Stafford is supposed to start but I wouldn’t hesitate to put old Shaun Hill out there, many remember when he was doing well back in SF, not surprised he can find the targets to hit in this offense. He is nowhere close to Stafford in terms of ability but do not discount him. The Vikes are only allowing 220 yds passing a week but they haven’t seen Calvin Johnson and the rest just yet. We had a Titus Young citing but the hail mary kind of skews the stats some.
The Vikings have been getting pressure on the QB with 19 QBhurries from Allen and Robinson however they have combined for only 1 sack. Eventually that has to change.
Remember that the Titans had 3 Def/ST TDs last week, doubt that repeats this week.
Final Score: Detroit 27...Minnesota 24
Tennessee at Houston (-12)
Houston has beat up on Miami, Jax, and Denver...combined 3-6 record. I do think Houston is a good team and has a big say in that 3-6 overall record for those teams but the fact is they haven’t really beaten a strong team yet IMO. The Denver game was impressive but will they be able to blowout their division rival and keep Chris Johnson as quiet as everyone else has?
The Titans come down to this right now; the OL good in pass protection especially at the Tackle spots but the inside running game has been horrible and Hutchinson needs to retire ASAP. LeRoy Harris needs to be on the bench. And Chris Johnson needs to try a little harder, it’s really that simple. I understand there are not that many holes but he need to find the 2-3 yards that are there and keep moving forward. He is dancing and looking for big holes that are not there. He had 2-3 runs for about 10 yards last week and still ended up with 14/28, that means he had another 10-122 carries for a negative total, just stop dancing Chris.
The Texans have a couple highlights so far. JJ Watts has been a beast at the DE spot. Their OL has been good as well and they have the ability to just run right at teams if they want. Can the Titans keep this game close? On paper you gotta say no but I don’t think Houston is quite as good as some feel they are. I see them winning one of the 2 top seeds in the AFC but I’m not sure they are going to go that far in the playoffs.
Final Score: Houston 27...Tennessee 13
San Diego at Kansas City (+1)
The Chargers were exposed last week and their OL is not good at the Tackle spots where they need better pass protection for Rivers. I hate to pick on Tyronne Green and rookie FA Michael Harris who has no business being out there but 21 QBhurries allowed over the first 3 weeks is not allowing Rivers time to set up in the pocket and do what he does best. The RB inside is also not good, this is one of the worst OL in the NFL right now. Granted they were exposed by one of the best teams in the NFL and KC is not nearly as tough but I don’t see them bouncing back this week as KC is going to have a lot of momentum this week. I’m not a fan of any SD RBs right now, and good luck trying to pick the right receiver this week. because KC has had some holes in the secondary and have been banged up, Eric Berry is still not 100% back and might not be all year, I’ll call for a sleeper pick and prop up Robert Meachem this week. He can go deep if the Chargers can hold off the Chiefs pass rush which really is only 1 guy.
The guy who is creating havoc for Qbs right now is Justin Houston as LB who has 4 sacks in 3 games. Even if Gaither is back at LT this week for San Diego, Houston will move around and find a soft spot on the OL to rush the QB.
Dwayne Bowe is questionable this week, I would expect him to play but it might limit his ability to get loose. I like the Chiefs OL and sure they got spanked by Atlanta and a rising Buffalo team but they came back against the Saints. They lost Rodney Hudson at Center for the season, guy was playing really well so Ryan Lilja will rover to Center from LG and Jeff Allen will fill the LG sport, that’s a downgrade. Overall the Chiefs OL is still solid and I expect some more big days on the ground for them. Jamaal Charles is a must start every week, guy can go off at any time.
Final Score: Kansas City 21...San Diego 17
San Francisco at New York Jets (+4)
I am going to jump right on the Niners this week. Their defense is great in the front 7 but they may have a leak in that secondary. Can the Jets expose that with their personnel? Sanchez has had some guys wide open and he either was just off target or has suffered a few drops by his wideouts. I see no reason why Santonio Holmes can’t follow up last week’s solid performance with another one this week. Stephen Hill is suffering from a hammy, boy do the Jets need him out there to help stretch the field.
I have talked in depth about the Niners in weeks past, let’s focus on the Jets and what is working for them. First of all, the Jets are not nearly as bad as everyone wishes they were. On defense they have a guy by the name of Muhammed Wilkerson who was a 1st round pick a year ago from Temple. Last season, the rookie did not get the luxury of much off season or preseason and you can see some of these guys really making waves now that they have had a proper off season of training. Wilkerson lines up at RE/LE so they can move him around if they need to. Devito, Ellis, Pouha, all need to bring their A game to help stop the run as the Niners are going to want to pound on the Jets. Reggie Bush was tearing them up last week so I expect Gore to see a lot of action this week in New York. Sure Revis being out hurts a lot but the Niners are not a prolific passing tema yet so I don’t expect them to exploit the Jets and even so Cromartie and Kyle Wilson are not terrible by any stretch IMO.
The hole for the Jets is Laron Landry who has missed 6 tackles which you can’t do at Safety in the NFL. You add in his penalties and this guy is 1 step closer to being out of a starting job in the NFL. He had built a reputation as being a badass but he is slowly just becoming bad. This coupled with some very “meh” play by the Jets LB crew is making them look ripe for teams to take advantage. What they have working for them is the fact they are 2-1, chance to make it 3-1, and a Niners team that now has to get back on the road and fly clear cross country after a road game against Minnesota and that jet lag for a 1:00 game, the NFL did the Niner no favors. They will be in a sleep walk the 1st half, possibly tired by the 2nd half, the jets are going to win this football game. I would be very impressed if the Niners can walk into New York and win this game but I think they drop to .500 this week and regroup for the their next stretch of games. @GB, DET, @MN, @NYJ...very tough opening month, they really needed a nice matchup at home this week.
Final Score: New York 20...San Fran 17
Seattle at St Louie XIV (+3)
You take away that debacle at the end of the game last week and we would be talking about how poor the Seattle offense is performing. So because of that, we are going to talk about the problems in Seattle before we pay homage to their great defense right now. The OL is has been mediocre and Seattle has been trying to find the right combination to roll with but the run blocking many times just isn’t there. I think Marshawn Lynch is one of the best in the game simply because he does the best he can with a very mediocre bunch. I bet if you stuck him behind the Titans OL that he would actually find a few yards. I think his toughness and ability to churn positive yards has kept the Seattle team on offense from losing these games. I know folks there love Russell Wilson and I am not going to whack the guy other than to say I feel right now he is a game manager and not a lot more. His passes look crisp at times, he makes good decisions for the most part but asking him to take the team on his back is not in the cards right now. So I think Seattle will be up and down and almost impossible to beat in Seattle when you factor in their defense.
Key for Seattle: They must get Lynch in open space this week. St Louis is playing on a lot of fire from Fisher right now, that’s good but Seattle needs to perform well this week or else the quality performance against Dallas and the Haley’s Comet interference last week will all be for not. Seattle need not apologize for the idiot refs last week but failure to convert against St Louis after already dropping one at AZ will not be a recipe for the playoffs for them. Also Russell Wilson needs to keep targeting Golden Tate who yes shoved the guy down last week but give him credit for trying. I think it could be the start of a nice connection here. I have no faith in Sydney Rice and the rest of the Seattle receivers are pretty mediocre right now. Tate is in year 3, he is starting to get it in terms of what he needs to do in order to make an impact. They just have to stretch the field 2-3 times a game to keep the defense honest and allow Lynch to tear them up on the ground.
The Rams will have their hands full with the Seahawks. If they got 8 sacks on Green bay in a half last week, they should find the Rams OL even more fun to tee off on. I don’t like any of the Rams on offense this week. Seattle is traveling and that will have some impact but I think they can shut down the Rams and start showing some consistency. This will be tough for Seattle with the early start time and that is going to make for a low score IMO. The Rams are a mess on offense and I think Sam Bradford has performed pretty well when you factor in a poor OL, not a lot at WR, and a running game that just is not there right now.
Final Score: Seattle 16...St Louis 13, yes I am going with a push and i would not bet heavy on this game.
Miami at Arizona (-5.5)
Arizona is going to make it to 4-0 this week. Miami will be traveling far, they won’t have a 100% ready to roll Reggie Bush and the offense plods a bit more with Daniel Thomas. The defense for Arizona right now is playing terrific and Patrick Peterson will have no problems taking care of Hartline and or Bess. I believe Miami can play them tough on defense for a while but Tannehill is going to throw a couple interceptions and the Arizona defense is prime to have another strong FF day for owners.
Ryan Williams takes over at RB, might not have a huge day this week but I like the fact he is starting and should be able to scrape up 60-75 yds, 2-3 receptions, perhaps a TD, maybe 10-15 in PPR. Miami has been tough on defense so don’t expect miracles here. Richard Marshall for Miami has missed practice this week, he might not play and even if he does it might be difficult for him to cover anyone. I expect both Fitzgerald and whoever is the WR2 or gets the most snaps to both be decent plays. The AZ OL will have its hands full with Cameron Wake and company but they won’t get to kolb every down.
Final Score: Arizona 24...Miami 10, sorry fellow Phinsfans
Oakland at Denver (-7)
I called the Oakland upset last week and although Denver has not played all that well, they did lose to Atlanta and Houston who are 6-0 combined right now. Let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater here. I tend to think Denver bounces back as they have had solid OL play. Willis McGahee might be hobbling but he has practiced and he is going to play. I expect him to do well in a warrior type performance that will make other teammates rally around the guy who is playing hurt. I think there is a reason the spread is this much on a couple of 1-2 teams. Oakland looked terrible early last week but they weathered the storm and managed to find a way to win.
Beadles and Walton inside will have better games than the last 2 weeks and I expect them to feast on the run blocking side of things. Denver is good enough on defense and the Raiders don’t have much to offer up. WR1-DHB is OUT this week and that leaves a major hole on offense. Denver will have no problem handling the other wideouts and will put a lot of pressure on oakland to establish the run. I see Denver winning this game comfortably and it looks like Vegas feels that way too.
Peyton Manning, Thomas, Decker, McGahee, and one of the RB2s for Denver will all have strong days. For Oakland, I don’t like anyone outside of the TE-Myers but he is suffering from a concussion last week. DMC is probably good for at least one 20+ yard dash but overall I think he will be held in check. D.Moore is making strides but against Denver I don’t see him exploding, that said both AJ and Walter had nice days last week. Oakland is not Houston and they could easily be 0-3 right now.
Final Score: Denver 34...Oakland 17
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (+1)
The Bengals have scored 72 points the last 2 weeks but in contrast they have given up 106 on defense for the last 3 weeks. You have to look at this and perhaps see some opp on offense. If this team has to score 30+ to win every week then you have to got to start looking at more receivers than just AJ Green. Hawkins has been having some nice weeks, maybe it’s time to get behind him rather than come up with reasons why he won’t keep up his fast start.
As bad as the defense looks in the stat column, they have been getting solid play from Geno Atkins who has 3 sacks, 8 QBhurries, and doing it all at DT which seems like a forgotten position in this throw 1st, throw 2nd, throw 3rd league. He has Michael Johnson outside of him at DE who has 5 sacks already on the season. Cinci is having a rough go of it at LB, namely Maualuga who has been terrible and missing tackles all over the field. Just cause a guy can track someone down and get to them does not mean they can wrap a guy up and so far he isn’t. The way to beat Cinci is to run the football, can Jacksonville sustain that over 60 minutes? They sure do have the man in MJD to take advantage of the fact Cinci cannot stop the run right now.
The Jags are having problems stopping the run as well so BJGE should be an easy start this week.
Exploit alert: The Bengals are banged up pretty bad in the secondary, it’s not real clear who is starting for them at the corners, Clements is doubtful, problem is can Jax exploit that? If they can run the ball with ease, eventually with a banged up secondary you gotta believe they can connect with Laurent Robinson who could have a breakout game. I know Cecil Shorts has had a couple nice long catches but he has only had about 30 snaps vs 160+ by Blackmon and another 120+ by LRob. I vote LRob over the rookie this week. Also could see a Mercedes Lewis sighting. Jax should have success against the Bengals, almost everyone else has.
Jags defense is pretty average at best. This game should be high scoring unless the Florida heat zaps everybody.
Final Score: Jax 28...Cinci 27
New Orleans at Green Bay (-9)
Let’s pick on the Saints for a bit. Let’s start ont eh OL where LT-Bushrod has given up 15 hurries on the QB, another 4 direct hits, this is Brees’ blindside so I understand why he sometimes is forcing the football. The rest of the OL is not great but the inside play of Evans and Grubbs is good enough for the Saints to start running the ball more, a lot more. You have Pierre Thomas who if you would ever give him a steady diet of touches he just might be able to carry you on his back some weeks. Total lack of leadership and coaching on this team right now.
The Saints defense has been nothing to write home about but rookie Corey White at cornerback, a rookie from Stanford who has been just terrible in place of Jabari Greer and also nickel situations and you can be sure Green Bay will know where he is at on Sunday and try to exploit it. White has allowed a 141 QBR, 93.3% completion rate, 14.5 ypc, and almost 100yac for the season. Greer and Robinson are not terrible but Harper and Jenkins can be had on the long ball so I look for Jordy Nelson to have a breakout game this week, the matchup favors him as well as James Jones IMO. Greg Jennings seems to be fighting this injury still, not totally sold he is all the way back. I would also expect Cedric benson to have a solid day this week. I am going to go with the Packers and I expect that dark place the Saints have entered to get a little darker this weekend. I don’t know how you can call for an upset here.
Final Score: Green Bay 48...New Orleans 21
If you are wondering why I am not picking on the Packers who surrendered 8 sacks in a half, had Bulaga exposed at RT, has seen Aaron Rodgers only win 2 of his last 8 starts both against Chicago, has surrendered 30+ sacks over that time, if you are looking for hard hitting journalism like that...you my friend are reading the wrong thread.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Bucs have been involved in two contests ending in 16-10 scores and they also have been in one barn burner with a ton of points and yards when they faced the World Champion Giants a couple weeks back. There has much made this week of Schiano’s comments that he ends to get Blount more involved. Whoever said that giving close to 100% of the touches to Doug Martin was a good idea except Doug Martin owners. Giving 1 back all the carries might have worked at Rutgers but in the NFL about 80% of the RBs are better off taking about ⅔ of the carries and allowing other guys to take some of the punishment.
The Bucs OL has not been that great although running against the Giants and Dallas will make a many teams look pretty average. Josh Freeman has been awful at QB and I am not letting him off the hook for it any more. He has got to do better or else the Bucs are going to have to think about going in a new direction. This is year 4 I do believe and Freeman is only hitting about 50% on the completion rate, that is bottom of the barrel in a passing first league.
Let’s jump to the Skins. If Trent Williams is a no go this Sunday at LT, bad things are going to happen to the Skins. I also feel the heat is going to really take its toll as Florida in September is a killer. The offense really revolves around RGIII. He is going to get tested against perhaps the best defense he has seen so far. The Bucs have been holding teams in check running the football and outside of the Giants their defense has allowed about 300 yds per game which isn’t bad these days in the NFL. The Skins will need to be patient and that will wear thin in the heat. I expect Tampa Bay to hold serve at home after narrow defeats on the road although last week the score does not tell the whole story.
Josh Wilson and DeAngelo Hall should be able to cover Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. The Bucs need to try Arrelious Benn on a couple long ones against Madieu Williams, who? Exactly. If not him then Jackson of course but that would mean some double coverage. I think the Bucs can keep it on the ground this week. Washington is not that strong in the front seven if TB can establish the 1-2 punch of Blount and Martin.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20...Washington 14
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-1)
“Luke! It’s a trap!!!”
How on Earth can folks be betting the Eagles after what they have shown the 1st 3 weeks of the season? The Giants should mop the floor with them this week and yet somehow the experts are saying the Eagles are the right call here. The Giants OL understands they are going to go as far as Eli takes them. He is getting decent time in the pocket to pick apart the defenses. Not a lot of sacks but he has been pressured a lot this year.
The Giants on defense are good and bad. The DL covers up a lot of problems in their secondary. The offense is good enough to also make folks overlook their back 7 including the LBs who can be hit and miss a lot of weeks. That said they have been good at stopping the run, have had 10 days to prepare and get healthy, meanwhile the Eagles got thumped in Arizona and are reeling despite a 2-1 record that could easily be 0-3. What would the spread be if they were 0-3?
Looks like Maclin will be back this week. I can’t find many compelling reasons to pick Philly in this game and trying to guess what their guys are going to do on offense is a mystery so I would like the Shark pool to pile in here and drop some knowledge because other than this game smelling like a complete trap this week, I’m not sure I have a solid reason to upgrade or downgrade anyone.
Final Score: Philadelphia 27...New York Giants 24
Chicago at Dallas (-3.5)
I’ll try and expand on this one more as we the thread unfolds but where a lot of folks are calling for a high scoring affair, I don’t see it that way. I think you get a defensive struggle and a low score. The point totals the last 2 weeks for Dallas combined with the opposition are 34 and 26...those speak to either a struggling offense or a strong defense, perhaps a mix of both. The Bears have done about the same with 33 and 29 point totals. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. Both suffer from sub par OL play, both have tough defenses, both defenses shut down poor offenses last week.
I know folks want a little more than this but the key for Dallas is going to be establishing the run which they have failed to do 2 weeks in a row. Until the ownership there in Dallas fires the GM, they just are not going to get over that hump.
Final Score: Dallas 20 Chicago 17
The Panthers opened with a tough loss to the Bucs, they answered by beating the Saints, then last week were throttled by the World Champs. Who are they? A few plays in the Bucs game and they are 2-1, this game would have a different feel to it. So far they are suffering from very poor play inside particularly in the running game. RG-Geoff Hangartner is killing them inside when they are trying to run thru the “A” gap. Kalil has not been holding up his end of the bargain very well either at Center. They have gotten solid play out of the Tackles Jordan Gross, Byron Bell, and Garry Williams when we talk about pass protection. Those guys are not that good at run blocking but they are creating a pocket for Cam Netwon.
The problems stem from newton not sitting in the pocket, missing receivers, guys dropping balls, and a very poor play call from the OC right now. I believe Carolina could give the Falcons some challenges but they are going to need to make a commitment to running the football. I was reading this week that DWill is slowing down...not when I watch him. I see a guy that if you can create some holes once in awhile that he will gain some chunks of yards. I also think it is a travesty that they do not use him more on screen passes. We’ll come back to the Panthers in a minute.
The team I have been most impressed with are the Falcons. To win the game so easily last week after a MNF game that was draining with the replacement refs, get on a plane a few days later, fly cross country to face a decent San Diego football team and blow them out was spectacular. You have to think there is something going on here and I realize they have to prove it in the playoffs but I like what I see so far. Their OL has been solid and on defense they are playing a lot of 5 and 6 man DB looks partly because they jump out to big leads but also this is part of the Mike nolan philosophy and this defense looks a lot better with many of the same players from last year.
The Falcons have 1 injury that concerns me this week and that is the status of strongside linebacker Stephen Nicholas who has been tremendous on the run support. If Atlanta is going to line up a lot with only 2 LBs and maybe missing their best run support LB, why would Carolina not try and run the ball a lot if there is only 6 in the box? Even if they have 7 but 1-2 of them are DBs, run right at them for goodness sakes. The Panthers have got to wake up and take what defenses are giving them. I wish I knew they would commit to running, it seemed to work against New Orleans. the way to beat Atlanta is run the ball at them, control the clock, limit Ryan, Jones, Gonzo, and White.
I will go out on a limb and say DWill is gonna have a solid day because Stewart is still banged up but perhaps Mike Tolbert will have some secret points this week. He is worth a pick up in best ball leagues. I don’t believe Olsen will have as big a day as last week but I do feel Brandon LaFell will bounce back from a rather poor performance mixed with terrible play calling mixed with awesome DLine play form the Giants last week. This game has a chance to be closer than some might think.
Final Score: Atlanta 27...Carolina 21 25% of me wants to call for the outright upset but the facts are that Atlanta is very good right now.
New England at Buffalo (+4)
I know a lot of folks are calling for a Patriots blowout. Not sure I see it that way but I do question the teams that Buffalo is beating up on the past 2 weeks. Let’s focus on the Bills first and we’ll start with a lot of the good things happening. Rookie LT-Cordy Glenn has allowed no sacks so far on the season and when you have an up n down QB like Fitz, this really helps by allowing more time in the pocket. RG-Craig Urbik who I highlighted before the season is blowing open holes at RG and whenever Fred Jackson is back and CJ Spiller up to speed, the Bills are going to be running wild on teams, that’s not an accident when they put up big numbers on the ground. Teams know they are going to do it and can’t stop them. This week though they have a bange dup backfiled and I’m afraid that is going to cost them this time around as the Patriots will be out for blood after losing a nail biter to the Ravens up 9 with less than 5 minutes to go. One other note about the Bills is the play of Nick Barnett and Kyle williams who ain’t missing a tackle on run support right now. I don’t think the Patriots will be find room to run but I do think Tom Brady has had enough of this BS and playing musical chairs with the receivers. I expect him to pull rank behind the curtains and unleash holy hell on the Bills secondary which has not seen a real good test to this point.
Exploit-Lloyd and Welker, Gronkowski need not stay in and block because I don’t think the Bills will get much pressure on Brady. You cannot sit Gronkowski out but if they do keep him in more to block...only pushes Welker and Lloyd up a few more notches IMO. If Edelman has another sighting this week, we’ll discuss it more but right now the focus needs to be on the primary weapons. New England blew out TN, then got tripped up by a better than anyone though defense in AZ, last week they were controlling the game and lost it at the end against a very good Ravens team. Things will get better in New England, right now is a primo buying opp on all of them.
Buffalo: I would not be in a hurry to rush FJax or Spiller out there, and Choice is not on the same level as those two, not even close. Avoid it this week and besides the Bills will be playing catch up. I like Chandler, Steve Johnson and Donald Jones as the passing game will get a lot of action.
Final Score: New England 28...Buffalo 21
Minnesota at Detroit (-4.5)
The Vikings got the upset last week but if you were reading this you know I called for a San Fran letdown, shoulda called for the Vikes to win outright but certainly felt they would cover the spread. Some good and bad here for Minnesota so let’s cover the angles here so we can see what we are dealing with.
Rookie LT-Matt Kalil...ZERO Sacks allowed so far, guy is looking like a high 1st round pick and the VIkings did the right thing as his PB is allowing the Christian Ponder to develop. I am not blow away by Ponder but he is hanging in there and I think he has a chance to be a solid starting QB if you surround him with enough talent. He cannot do it on his own but he can manage a game and hit guys when he has to. If the Vikings could ever get ADP rolling like in the past, they could be a scary team. RT-Phil Loadholt also has allowed no sacks on the season, there is a reason Ponder has time to set up and throw.
Keys Match Up: Jerome Simpson will be working the deep stuff for the Vikes who have had a lack of a deep threat. I’m not calling for Simpson to rack up huge points this week, he needs a couple games to get up to speed. I do think he will make life much easier for Kyle Rudolph and Percy Harvin to tear the defenses up underneath.
The Lions have sprung a leak on defense as they went from 250 to 349 to a season high 437 yds allowed last week to a pretty inept offense in Tennessee. They have got major holes at Safety so perhaps Simpson will get loose even in his 1st game back. If you own Simpson in a best ball format, lucky you. The Safeties have allowed 10 of 11 to be caught, a 19 ypc avg and 2 TDs...there is room for someone to exploit them this week, gotta think the guy should be Simpson.
The Lions on offense found balance last week. LeShoure was not outstanding but he ran hard and they gave him 30 touches last week which was scary. Stafford is supposed to start but I wouldn’t hesitate to put old Shaun Hill out there, many remember when he was doing well back in SF, not surprised he can find the targets to hit in this offense. He is nowhere close to Stafford in terms of ability but do not discount him. The Vikes are only allowing 220 yds passing a week but they haven’t seen Calvin Johnson and the rest just yet. We had a Titus Young citing but the hail mary kind of skews the stats some.
The Vikings have been getting pressure on the QB with 19 QBhurries from Allen and Robinson however they have combined for only 1 sack. Eventually that has to change.
Remember that the Titans had 3 Def/ST TDs last week, doubt that repeats this week.
Final Score: Detroit 27...Minnesota 24
Tennessee at Houston (-12)
Houston has beat up on Miami, Jax, and Denver...combined 3-6 record. I do think Houston is a good team and has a big say in that 3-6 overall record for those teams but the fact is they haven’t really beaten a strong team yet IMO. The Denver game was impressive but will they be able to blowout their division rival and keep Chris Johnson as quiet as everyone else has?
The Titans come down to this right now; the OL good in pass protection especially at the Tackle spots but the inside running game has been horrible and Hutchinson needs to retire ASAP. LeRoy Harris needs to be on the bench. And Chris Johnson needs to try a little harder, it’s really that simple. I understand there are not that many holes but he need to find the 2-3 yards that are there and keep moving forward. He is dancing and looking for big holes that are not there. He had 2-3 runs for about 10 yards last week and still ended up with 14/28, that means he had another 10-122 carries for a negative total, just stop dancing Chris.
The Texans have a couple highlights so far. JJ Watts has been a beast at the DE spot. Their OL has been good as well and they have the ability to just run right at teams if they want. Can the Titans keep this game close? On paper you gotta say no but I don’t think Houston is quite as good as some feel they are. I see them winning one of the 2 top seeds in the AFC but I’m not sure they are going to go that far in the playoffs.
Final Score: Houston 27...Tennessee 13
San Diego at Kansas City (+1)
The Chargers were exposed last week and their OL is not good at the Tackle spots where they need better pass protection for Rivers. I hate to pick on Tyronne Green and rookie FA Michael Harris who has no business being out there but 21 QBhurries allowed over the first 3 weeks is not allowing Rivers time to set up in the pocket and do what he does best. The RB inside is also not good, this is one of the worst OL in the NFL right now. Granted they were exposed by one of the best teams in the NFL and KC is not nearly as tough but I don’t see them bouncing back this week as KC is going to have a lot of momentum this week. I’m not a fan of any SD RBs right now, and good luck trying to pick the right receiver this week. because KC has had some holes in the secondary and have been banged up, Eric Berry is still not 100% back and might not be all year, I’ll call for a sleeper pick and prop up Robert Meachem this week. He can go deep if the Chargers can hold off the Chiefs pass rush which really is only 1 guy.
The guy who is creating havoc for Qbs right now is Justin Houston as LB who has 4 sacks in 3 games. Even if Gaither is back at LT this week for San Diego, Houston will move around and find a soft spot on the OL to rush the QB.
Dwayne Bowe is questionable this week, I would expect him to play but it might limit his ability to get loose. I like the Chiefs OL and sure they got spanked by Atlanta and a rising Buffalo team but they came back against the Saints. They lost Rodney Hudson at Center for the season, guy was playing really well so Ryan Lilja will rover to Center from LG and Jeff Allen will fill the LG sport, that’s a downgrade. Overall the Chiefs OL is still solid and I expect some more big days on the ground for them. Jamaal Charles is a must start every week, guy can go off at any time.
Final Score: Kansas City 21...San Diego 17
San Francisco at New York Jets (+4)
I am going to jump right on the Niners this week. Their defense is great in the front 7 but they may have a leak in that secondary. Can the Jets expose that with their personnel? Sanchez has had some guys wide open and he either was just off target or has suffered a few drops by his wideouts. I see no reason why Santonio Holmes can’t follow up last week’s solid performance with another one this week. Stephen Hill is suffering from a hammy, boy do the Jets need him out there to help stretch the field.
I have talked in depth about the Niners in weeks past, let’s focus on the Jets and what is working for them. First of all, the Jets are not nearly as bad as everyone wishes they were. On defense they have a guy by the name of Muhammed Wilkerson who was a 1st round pick a year ago from Temple. Last season, the rookie did not get the luxury of much off season or preseason and you can see some of these guys really making waves now that they have had a proper off season of training. Wilkerson lines up at RE/LE so they can move him around if they need to. Devito, Ellis, Pouha, all need to bring their A game to help stop the run as the Niners are going to want to pound on the Jets. Reggie Bush was tearing them up last week so I expect Gore to see a lot of action this week in New York. Sure Revis being out hurts a lot but the Niners are not a prolific passing tema yet so I don’t expect them to exploit the Jets and even so Cromartie and Kyle Wilson are not terrible by any stretch IMO.
The hole for the Jets is Laron Landry who has missed 6 tackles which you can’t do at Safety in the NFL. You add in his penalties and this guy is 1 step closer to being out of a starting job in the NFL. He had built a reputation as being a badass but he is slowly just becoming bad. This coupled with some very “meh” play by the Jets LB crew is making them look ripe for teams to take advantage. What they have working for them is the fact they are 2-1, chance to make it 3-1, and a Niners team that now has to get back on the road and fly clear cross country after a road game against Minnesota and that jet lag for a 1:00 game, the NFL did the Niner no favors. They will be in a sleep walk the 1st half, possibly tired by the 2nd half, the jets are going to win this football game. I would be very impressed if the Niners can walk into New York and win this game but I think they drop to .500 this week and regroup for the their next stretch of games. @GB, DET, @MN, @NYJ...very tough opening month, they really needed a nice matchup at home this week.
Final Score: New York 20...San Fran 17
Seattle at St Louie XIV (+3)
You take away that debacle at the end of the game last week and we would be talking about how poor the Seattle offense is performing. So because of that, we are going to talk about the problems in Seattle before we pay homage to their great defense right now. The OL is has been mediocre and Seattle has been trying to find the right combination to roll with but the run blocking many times just isn’t there. I think Marshawn Lynch is one of the best in the game simply because he does the best he can with a very mediocre bunch. I bet if you stuck him behind the Titans OL that he would actually find a few yards. I think his toughness and ability to churn positive yards has kept the Seattle team on offense from losing these games. I know folks there love Russell Wilson and I am not going to whack the guy other than to say I feel right now he is a game manager and not a lot more. His passes look crisp at times, he makes good decisions for the most part but asking him to take the team on his back is not in the cards right now. So I think Seattle will be up and down and almost impossible to beat in Seattle when you factor in their defense.
Key for Seattle: They must get Lynch in open space this week. St Louis is playing on a lot of fire from Fisher right now, that’s good but Seattle needs to perform well this week or else the quality performance against Dallas and the Haley’s Comet interference last week will all be for not. Seattle need not apologize for the idiot refs last week but failure to convert against St Louis after already dropping one at AZ will not be a recipe for the playoffs for them. Also Russell Wilson needs to keep targeting Golden Tate who yes shoved the guy down last week but give him credit for trying. I think it could be the start of a nice connection here. I have no faith in Sydney Rice and the rest of the Seattle receivers are pretty mediocre right now. Tate is in year 3, he is starting to get it in terms of what he needs to do in order to make an impact. They just have to stretch the field 2-3 times a game to keep the defense honest and allow Lynch to tear them up on the ground.
The Rams will have their hands full with the Seahawks. If they got 8 sacks on Green bay in a half last week, they should find the Rams OL even more fun to tee off on. I don’t like any of the Rams on offense this week. Seattle is traveling and that will have some impact but I think they can shut down the Rams and start showing some consistency. This will be tough for Seattle with the early start time and that is going to make for a low score IMO. The Rams are a mess on offense and I think Sam Bradford has performed pretty well when you factor in a poor OL, not a lot at WR, and a running game that just is not there right now.
Final Score: Seattle 16...St Louis 13, yes I am going with a push and i would not bet heavy on this game.
Miami at Arizona (-5.5)
Arizona is going to make it to 4-0 this week. Miami will be traveling far, they won’t have a 100% ready to roll Reggie Bush and the offense plods a bit more with Daniel Thomas. The defense for Arizona right now is playing terrific and Patrick Peterson will have no problems taking care of Hartline and or Bess. I believe Miami can play them tough on defense for a while but Tannehill is going to throw a couple interceptions and the Arizona defense is prime to have another strong FF day for owners.
Ryan Williams takes over at RB, might not have a huge day this week but I like the fact he is starting and should be able to scrape up 60-75 yds, 2-3 receptions, perhaps a TD, maybe 10-15 in PPR. Miami has been tough on defense so don’t expect miracles here. Richard Marshall for Miami has missed practice this week, he might not play and even if he does it might be difficult for him to cover anyone. I expect both Fitzgerald and whoever is the WR2 or gets the most snaps to both be decent plays. The AZ OL will have its hands full with Cameron Wake and company but they won’t get to kolb every down.
Final Score: Arizona 24...Miami 10, sorry fellow Phinsfans
Oakland at Denver (-7)
I called the Oakland upset last week and although Denver has not played all that well, they did lose to Atlanta and Houston who are 6-0 combined right now. Let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater here. I tend to think Denver bounces back as they have had solid OL play. Willis McGahee might be hobbling but he has practiced and he is going to play. I expect him to do well in a warrior type performance that will make other teammates rally around the guy who is playing hurt. I think there is a reason the spread is this much on a couple of 1-2 teams. Oakland looked terrible early last week but they weathered the storm and managed to find a way to win.
Beadles and Walton inside will have better games than the last 2 weeks and I expect them to feast on the run blocking side of things. Denver is good enough on defense and the Raiders don’t have much to offer up. WR1-DHB is OUT this week and that leaves a major hole on offense. Denver will have no problem handling the other wideouts and will put a lot of pressure on oakland to establish the run. I see Denver winning this game comfortably and it looks like Vegas feels that way too.
Peyton Manning, Thomas, Decker, McGahee, and one of the RB2s for Denver will all have strong days. For Oakland, I don’t like anyone outside of the TE-Myers but he is suffering from a concussion last week. DMC is probably good for at least one 20+ yard dash but overall I think he will be held in check. D.Moore is making strides but against Denver I don’t see him exploding, that said both AJ and Walter had nice days last week. Oakland is not Houston and they could easily be 0-3 right now.
Final Score: Denver 34...Oakland 17
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (+1)
The Bengals have scored 72 points the last 2 weeks but in contrast they have given up 106 on defense for the last 3 weeks. You have to look at this and perhaps see some opp on offense. If this team has to score 30+ to win every week then you have to got to start looking at more receivers than just AJ Green. Hawkins has been having some nice weeks, maybe it’s time to get behind him rather than come up with reasons why he won’t keep up his fast start.
As bad as the defense looks in the stat column, they have been getting solid play from Geno Atkins who has 3 sacks, 8 QBhurries, and doing it all at DT which seems like a forgotten position in this throw 1st, throw 2nd, throw 3rd league. He has Michael Johnson outside of him at DE who has 5 sacks already on the season. Cinci is having a rough go of it at LB, namely Maualuga who has been terrible and missing tackles all over the field. Just cause a guy can track someone down and get to them does not mean they can wrap a guy up and so far he isn’t. The way to beat Cinci is to run the football, can Jacksonville sustain that over 60 minutes? They sure do have the man in MJD to take advantage of the fact Cinci cannot stop the run right now.
The Jags are having problems stopping the run as well so BJGE should be an easy start this week.
Exploit alert: The Bengals are banged up pretty bad in the secondary, it’s not real clear who is starting for them at the corners, Clements is doubtful, problem is can Jax exploit that? If they can run the ball with ease, eventually with a banged up secondary you gotta believe they can connect with Laurent Robinson who could have a breakout game. I know Cecil Shorts has had a couple nice long catches but he has only had about 30 snaps vs 160+ by Blackmon and another 120+ by LRob. I vote LRob over the rookie this week. Also could see a Mercedes Lewis sighting. Jax should have success against the Bengals, almost everyone else has.
Jags defense is pretty average at best. This game should be high scoring unless the Florida heat zaps everybody.
Final Score: Jax 28...Cinci 27
New Orleans at Green Bay (-9)
Let’s pick on the Saints for a bit. Let’s start ont eh OL where LT-Bushrod has given up 15 hurries on the QB, another 4 direct hits, this is Brees’ blindside so I understand why he sometimes is forcing the football. The rest of the OL is not great but the inside play of Evans and Grubbs is good enough for the Saints to start running the ball more, a lot more. You have Pierre Thomas who if you would ever give him a steady diet of touches he just might be able to carry you on his back some weeks. Total lack of leadership and coaching on this team right now.
The Saints defense has been nothing to write home about but rookie Corey White at cornerback, a rookie from Stanford who has been just terrible in place of Jabari Greer and also nickel situations and you can be sure Green Bay will know where he is at on Sunday and try to exploit it. White has allowed a 141 QBR, 93.3% completion rate, 14.5 ypc, and almost 100yac for the season. Greer and Robinson are not terrible but Harper and Jenkins can be had on the long ball so I look for Jordy Nelson to have a breakout game this week, the matchup favors him as well as James Jones IMO. Greg Jennings seems to be fighting this injury still, not totally sold he is all the way back. I would also expect Cedric benson to have a solid day this week. I am going to go with the Packers and I expect that dark place the Saints have entered to get a little darker this weekend. I don’t know how you can call for an upset here.
Final Score: Green Bay 48...New Orleans 21
If you are wondering why I am not picking on the Packers who surrendered 8 sacks in a half, had Bulaga exposed at RT, has seen Aaron Rodgers only win 2 of his last 8 starts both against Chicago, has surrendered 30+ sacks over that time, if you are looking for hard hitting journalism like that...you my friend are reading the wrong thread.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Bucs have been involved in two contests ending in 16-10 scores and they also have been in one barn burner with a ton of points and yards when they faced the World Champion Giants a couple weeks back. There has much made this week of Schiano’s comments that he ends to get Blount more involved. Whoever said that giving close to 100% of the touches to Doug Martin was a good idea except Doug Martin owners. Giving 1 back all the carries might have worked at Rutgers but in the NFL about 80% of the RBs are better off taking about ⅔ of the carries and allowing other guys to take some of the punishment.
The Bucs OL has not been that great although running against the Giants and Dallas will make a many teams look pretty average. Josh Freeman has been awful at QB and I am not letting him off the hook for it any more. He has got to do better or else the Bucs are going to have to think about going in a new direction. This is year 4 I do believe and Freeman is only hitting about 50% on the completion rate, that is bottom of the barrel in a passing first league.
Let’s jump to the Skins. If Trent Williams is a no go this Sunday at LT, bad things are going to happen to the Skins. I also feel the heat is going to really take its toll as Florida in September is a killer. The offense really revolves around RGIII. He is going to get tested against perhaps the best defense he has seen so far. The Bucs have been holding teams in check running the football and outside of the Giants their defense has allowed about 300 yds per game which isn’t bad these days in the NFL. The Skins will need to be patient and that will wear thin in the heat. I expect Tampa Bay to hold serve at home after narrow defeats on the road although last week the score does not tell the whole story.
Josh Wilson and DeAngelo Hall should be able to cover Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. The Bucs need to try Arrelious Benn on a couple long ones against Madieu Williams, who? Exactly. If not him then Jackson of course but that would mean some double coverage. I think the Bucs can keep it on the ground this week. Washington is not that strong in the front seven if TB can establish the 1-2 punch of Blount and Martin.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20...Washington 14
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-1)
“Luke! It’s a trap!!!”
How on Earth can folks be betting the Eagles after what they have shown the 1st 3 weeks of the season? The Giants should mop the floor with them this week and yet somehow the experts are saying the Eagles are the right call here. The Giants OL understands they are going to go as far as Eli takes them. He is getting decent time in the pocket to pick apart the defenses. Not a lot of sacks but he has been pressured a lot this year.
The Giants on defense are good and bad. The DL covers up a lot of problems in their secondary. The offense is good enough to also make folks overlook their back 7 including the LBs who can be hit and miss a lot of weeks. That said they have been good at stopping the run, have had 10 days to prepare and get healthy, meanwhile the Eagles got thumped in Arizona and are reeling despite a 2-1 record that could easily be 0-3. What would the spread be if they were 0-3?
Looks like Maclin will be back this week. I can’t find many compelling reasons to pick Philly in this game and trying to guess what their guys are going to do on offense is a mystery so I would like the Shark pool to pile in here and drop some knowledge because other than this game smelling like a complete trap this week, I’m not sure I have a solid reason to upgrade or downgrade anyone.
Final Score: Philadelphia 27...New York Giants 24
Chicago at Dallas (-3.5)
I’ll try and expand on this one more as we the thread unfolds but where a lot of folks are calling for a high scoring affair, I don’t see it that way. I think you get a defensive struggle and a low score. The point totals the last 2 weeks for Dallas combined with the opposition are 34 and 26...those speak to either a struggling offense or a strong defense, perhaps a mix of both. The Bears have done about the same with 33 and 29 point totals. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. Both suffer from sub par OL play, both have tough defenses, both defenses shut down poor offenses last week.
I know folks want a little more than this but the key for Dallas is going to be establishing the run which they have failed to do 2 weeks in a row. Until the ownership there in Dallas fires the GM, they just are not going to get over that hump.
Final Score: Dallas 20 Chicago 17
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I have a couple nitpicks..
