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I suggest you revisit your football history book and look at how QB that SAT a year did in their first years as starters. . .Culpepper, Palmer, Brady, Favre, Green, all down? Other guys that hardly played and then started include Delhomme, Brunell, and Brad Johnson who also fared pretty well as first year starters.
That is quite a high value for someone with so little game day experience and no real stars at the WR position. Coach Shottenheimer is also a ball control, ground game guy. I expect SD to degrade some this year. LT2 is great, but I think Brees helped make Gates the player that he is. Based on the recent SSL drafts, I'd put Gates as the most over-rated player in the FF game right now. There is simply no guarantee that he will continue the same production with the much less experienced Rivers at QB.
How are the Chiefs wide receivers? Are they any better than the Chargers? How often did KC run the ball? How'd Trent Green do the last few years? He's ranked 8th, 3rd, 4th, and 8th the last few years. SD had 55 fewer rushing attempts than the Chiefs did last year. Schottenheimer's teams over the years have ranked Top 12 in passing yards and passing TD 6 times. He's also ranked Top 10 in scoring 9 times. He plays to the strengths of his team, and in some years he's gone to the ground, some years to the air, and some years a more balanced attack. IMO, the Bolts would not have let Brees walk away so easily (and for nothing mind you) if they did not have confidence in Rivers.
only 1 other staff guy has him in their TOP 15 at qb for redraft
Where do you see Sims?
Me too. If both guys stay healthy, top 20 is fairly easy when you factor the amount of QBs that wont finish the season due to injury or ineffective play. I see Rivers as the risky pick out of the 2 simply because we have never seen him play... for the most part. I do like his upside/talent more though. Sims seems safe in that he does have 1 solid season under his belt where he ranked as QB27 in only 11 games. I just don't happen to like his situation as much as Rivers in SD or his talent.I voted BOTH.... Top 20 isn't anything crazy if they stay healthy.
I still haven't formed a firm opinion on Simms, but for now it's not as high as Rivers. I hope to iron out a set of rankings that I can live with over the long weekend.Bear in mind, however, that the scoring difference between the middle QBs over a full season could be miniscule. Last year, the scoring difference between #7 and #14 was about a single ppg, and you could just about have picked names out of a hat it was so close. It may be that way again, so there could be 100-200 yard or 2 TD difference between a bunch of QB in the rankings.only 1 other staff guy has him in their TOP 15 at qb for redraft
I think that's a fallacy. There's this perception that Schotty is a very conservative, ball-control type coach, mostly dating back to his days in KC... but in San Diego, he's actually been a very progressive, aggressive coach. Lots of chucking, lots of trickery, lots of misdirection, lots of what-have-you.Let's not forget that Tomlinson threw three touchdown passes early last season. The halfback pass is generally not the hallmark of a conservative playcaller.
You've usually got sound reasoning behind your picks but this one really stands out. Did you explain this in another thread?
Read this thread if you didn't already.
I did. The Chargers have a nice schedule. I just wasn't sure if you'd presented all this (and perhaps more) in the Rivers bandwagon thread or somewhere else.Read this thread if you didn't already.
I think this year in particular there are very few true stud QB, and beyond Manning there is a lot of question marks for many teams. Last year fantasy QB scoring was not that great compared to 2004. Now imagine similar scoring but with a lot of teams with ????For exampleI did. The Chargers have a nice schedule. I just wasn't sure if you'd presented all this (and perhaps more) in the Rivers bandwagon thread or somewhere else.Read this thread if you didn't already.
thanks for the suggestion,I took you up on the offer , I think you need to do more homework on the subject before you offer suggestions
Aikman first 3 years as a starter:
I never mentioned Aikman, as he was thrown to the wolves his first year and did not sit much as a rookie.As for the other guys, first year as a starting QB rankings:thanks for the suggestion,I took you up on the offer , I think you need to do more homework on the subject before you offer suggestions
2360 yards, 15 int, 10 tds, 69.6 rating.
Palmer, in his 2nd pro year -first as a starter- went 2897 yards, 18 int,18 td, 77.3 rating.
he also is a HEISMAN trophy winner.
Culpepper played with two of the greatest WR's to ever suit up, Chris Carter and Randy Moss. In his first 3 years as a starter, threw for 52 ints to 65 tds..he did toss 33 td to 16 int his first season as a starting QB..great stats.again,he played with randy moss and chris carter, and frankly, the only WR/TE SD has that is worth mentioning, is Gates..LT is terrific, too..but show me anyone comparable to hof'er's Moss and Carter..
Brady, in his first full season as a starter, threw for 2843 yards, 18 tds, 12 ints, 86.5 rating.
Favre threw for 70 tds and 51 ints in his first 3 years as a starter in GB..In his first year as a starter, he threw for just 3227 yards, 18 td, 13 int.
Delhomme - first year as a starter in carolina, threw for 3219 yards, 19 td to 16 int.
Brunell, in hist first year as a starter in Jax, played 13 games, threw for 2168 yards, 15 td,7 int. the following season, those numbers worked out to 4367 yards, 19 td 20 int.
Trent Green gets a passing grade, 3441 yards, 23 td, 11 ints in washington , 1998, hist first year as a starter.
in KC, under a new offense, 3783 yards, 17 td,24 ints.
basically,you're looking at approximately 18-20 tds, 12-15 ints from Rivers if history is any indicator..so in that regard, I don't think he has a snowball's chance in hell of cracking the top 10 QB rankings.
You are already assuming Rivers is in the ranks of people like Culpepper, Palmer,Brady?!?! I simply don't. its just a difference of opinion. we could be splitting hairs here anyways, both could finish in top ten for all we know, right? I think you're under the impression that you can just plug a guy like Rivers in to Bree's position and he'll be a mirrored image of the former starting QB, tossing 25+ tds with a low int value..and that's just not happening, IMO..
you'll be lucky to get 20 tds out of hm in 2006..he COULD be a pro bowl player for the next decade, but as for him flipping the switch and becoming troy aikman or favre overnight, is a pipe dream.
