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Fan Duel-Lessons Learned From a New Guy; Part 3 Added (1 Viewer)

WhoDat

Footballguy
It has been a good 8, maybe, 10 years since I posted. Life got busy. I gave up the board for running. Lots of travel for work. Things happen. Through it all, though, I always continued to follow the best minds on the board ... who all now appear to work full-time ... good job ... and was tuned into fantasy football.

Knowing how compulsive, OCD and competitive I am I purposely stayed away from the DFS space but ... I finally signed up last year. I am trying to help a group of friends understand the space and these are more or less diary type information ... lumps taken ... what to do ... what not to do ... that I experienced last year.

A few things ... never play with more than you can afford to lose; have realistic expectations, as the professionals in this space are REALLY good; find ... pay for ... data sources, like FBG or Pro Foootball Focus or both. Opinion, everything you need to win is located between what is available here and Pro Football Focus.

Hey ... I am not the smartest guy and the intent here is to save one person ... maybe two ... from making some of the mistakes I did, while realizing what they are stepping into. If this blows, sorry. If it helps you, go win some money.

· 7 NFL head coaching changes along with those coaching staffs impacting offensive and defensive philosophies/schemes of respective teams. 21% change in available head coaches

· 256 players drafted in April. 224 picks along with 32 compensatory picks

· 307 UFA signed with 231 of those signings changing teams. 75% of all UFA have a new home

· 403 UFA remained unsigned

· NFL is comprised of 1, 856 total players. 53 on active rosters and 5 on practice squads. Removing the numbers associated with the 90 man roster for training camp and dealing strictly with active roster numbers, 12% of all UFA changed teams

· Every team also has at least a current 12% minimum change in roster due to the incoming rookie class (Some more or less depending on total numbers of players drafted)

Data, percentages, facts not necessarily related to things like YPC ... you are doing to need to get familiar with all facets of NFL data and understand where to find them. Most of what you need to get by is free, while what you really want will require a small investment. Side aside the cash and find a site that works for especially Pro Football Focus.

[SIZE=16pt]Quick Recap[/SIZE]

Last year’s journey started in Week 6 of the NFL season and ended in Week 17 with a success rate of 91% on Fan Duel. Money was won 11 of those 12 weeks. Let that register. Meanwhile, the playoffs broke even, as money was spread over multiple roster options on Saturday and Sunday games. Rough math still indicates an overall winning percentage of 73% for the season. Despite zero intellectual knowledge of daily fantasy sports (DFS); how to play; what contests to enter; why to enter them and proper bankroll management the season was successful but…

· Sustainable?

· What could be done differently and better?

· What is the learning opportunity?

[SIZE=16pt]In The Interest of Science[/SIZE]

Football was a success due to the time of year (Week 6 … more on that later) I entered the fray and relying upon 30 years of fantasy football playing experience. My first team in 1984 … Neil Lomax, Walter Payton, Freeman McNeil, Steve Largent, Roy Green and Kellen Winslow. Billy Sims had amassed over 1,000 and 5 TD in 8 games prior to putting his leg on backwards and was unfortunately replaced by McNeil. Sims was my guy. Unfortunate injury and ended his career. I finished second to a Dolphins fan that had Marino, Clayton and Duper. Still pisses me off. All these years later that is still my favorite drafted team. For historical context Marino’s 1984 season was the measuring stick until recent years. Brees broke the yardage mark. Then, Brady bested the TD mark and, well, Manning surpassed both in the same season. Enough nostalgia and history … back on task.

Was there luck involved with the 91% and 73%? I would argue no and could be talked into a little. I would say understanding the story of the season coupled with years of experience reduced the learning curve. However, those winning percentages are not sustainable. If they were, I would weigh 300; exclusively wear sweat suits; have much jewelry including Grillz and live in Vegas full-time.

I had no understanding of proper bankroll management and betting strategy. I had no idea of distributing my money across different types of contests … cash games versus guaranteed prize pool contests. I did not know what total percentage of my available cash to leverage each week and where. Despite that lack of knowledge I am filing winnings with my account. This was definitely lucky. Seriously, the squirrel I keep hearing about did in fact find more than a few acorns.

Now, if I am the first person to introduce the concept(s) of bankroll management and betting system to you, my guess is that you are an average to horrible gambler. Start paying attention.

So I knew what I knew … abnormal understanding and fascination of the nuisances of football and football statistics … and what I did not know … the mechanics of Fan Duel and or DFS play and wealth management. Prior to the start of this football season I wanted to be better prepared. And, thus, the experiment with DFS in the space of the NBA

I decided that I would take $50 and start playing NBA DFS on Fan Duel. I would allow myself $5 per day to play if/when I played and the goal was to reach $1, 000 in winnings. I would adhere to a strict bankroll management system. I started on January 19th and completed the season on April 18th.

· Without reaching more than $10 into the $50 total reserve the bankroll was at $2, 024 on April 18th

· Winning percentage of 71%

· Winnings buoyed by 4 different 1st place finishes in GPP contests. Those bets were either $1 or $2 and returned winnings of $450-$100. Best…1/1, 724 for $450 at $1

NBA DFS is not for a casual fan. It is hard-core hoop fan and professional DFS players. I had not followed the NBA in years. Right there with you on the results … how the blank did you do that?

First, I knew I lacked an understanding of NBA DFS. Forever intellectually curious, I started reading. Next, I found a few reliable data sources and learned how to read them and apply the findings. Third, I found a trusted teacher in a good friend that is very well educated in all things NBA and NBA DFS. I read anything and everything I could find on bankroll management and bankroll management within DFS. Then, I started following the league and watching the story. Hold that thought, though, as I want you to consider something, as we take a break in our programming …

I entered the NBA season at mid-point of the season. 6 month season and I started playing right in the middle. I entered the NFL season at Week 6. Told you we would revisit this. There is no coincidence that my winning percentage was higher, as compared to having started on Week 1. The story of each season … NFL or NBA … was fairly well written in Week 6 or mid-January. Starters, team philosophies, snap count, playing time, offensive utilization were all established. It was relatively easy to take information; process it and apply in the form of player selection and roster formation. There is a direct corollary between the time of year I started playing and the ability to make educated and better decisions more often than not. Not so easy to do that over the early season weeks. Keep that in the back of your mind, as it will come up again.

[SIZE=16pt]Bankroll Management[/SIZE]

I urge you to search gambling betting systems, gambling theories, daily fantasy sports bankroll management or some combination of those terms. Google is your friend here folks. The amount of material is exhausting and worth your while applying yourself.

In short you can within reason determine the amount of money you should place on a specific type of wager considering the odds; your historical winning percentage in similar contests and the total amount of money you have available to wager. That is a summation of the Kelley Criterion. Your search should quickly bring you to articles and tools associated with the Kelley Criterion.

The Kelley Criterion is not without fault and it is highly debated. Read the contrarian articles and reach your own conclusions. For my NBA experience I developed a daily limit through my own use of the Kelley Criterion. As my winning percentage went up, I adjusted accordingly. Having those parameters helped me each week understand for a period of “x” days I had “y” available to wager.

Unlike the 82 game NBA season the NFL is essentially 17 weeks. Discount the playoffs for this discussion. You need to do some reading here. You need to take what you have learned and tinker with the Kelley Formula or another system that will work for you. Understand your winning percentages inside of DFS or for those of you wagering on games (NFL or college) the same. Be honest. Measure that against the total cash you plan on having available for the 17 week season and establish a weekly baseline of funds available for your use. Then, understand the type of odds or contest you will be putting money into or against. Set parameters; trust the results and set a weekly budget. This is how you win money over an extended period of time.

My guess is that many of you opt for the Martingale betting system and, given that I know nobody reading this has unlimited cash, you are losing and or have a long history of losing. Simply put the method works by you doubling the bet until you win: double up to catch up … get healthy on Monday Night Football … sweating out the late night game of “random opponent” versus the University of Hawaii … about on point? Mathematically speaking, this only works if you have an unlimited amount of money to potentially lose before you finally win. The concepts of bankroll management were the most important things I learned through my NBA experiment. Get your proverbial stuff squared away here. Give this matter due diligence.

[SIZE=16pt]Types of Games & Weekly Distribution[/SIZE]

There are 2 distinct types of games in DFS. Cash games and guaranteed prize pools. Cash games are H2H; Double-Ups or 50/50. Either one of us wins the money (H2H) or half of us win the money. These present 2:1 odds and the greatest chance of winning. Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) is your large field contests with hundreds to thousands of entries that pay the top 10%-20% of the field.

· 80% of your weekly money should be placed into Cash games

· 20% of your weekly money should be placed into GPP contests

I followed exactly zero of that in football last year. Based on historical experiences I won money. I called upon what is a very sad to write … getting old … 30 years of fantasy football or NFL minutia to win. Bet whatever … wherever … and cashed big. I followed this 80/20 precisely with my NBA project, while having no real experience in the NBA fantasy or NBA DFS space, and I won. My thoughts are that what I did in the NBA is reality. Yes, the winnings percentages were high (71%) but I am familiar with fantasy sports; data; had a personal coach and stuck to a strict bankroll system. This is closer to reality than the NFL experience. Essentially it is a self-created ecosystem for your DFS and or gaming lifestyle. I cannot build it for you but I can provide some advice or insight. This was the second most important thing I learned.

As of now, you should be considering a wagering system that fits you; a budget for the 17 week season; a budget for each individual NFL week and the distribution of those funds between cash (80%) and GPP (20%) games. Whatever you come up with, if your goal is to win money, stick to it.

[SIZE=16pt]Slow-Start, Win More[/SIZE]

I have highlighted entering the NFL and NBA seasons at their respective 30% and 50% completed stages. Scientific findings … reason … logic … learned through 2 empirical instances. More money was won due to the time I entered football and I entered the NBA due to the static nature of the data/statistics available. Those were my findings. And I am suggesting … asking … getting a little parental with you building a budget and doing so with this in mind.

You should bet less over the first month to month and a half of the football season. Be that inside DFS or individual games wager less. There are many unsettled variables early in the season. As you establish your weekly allowance adjust down the first month and allocate that money for a later point in the year. I am still determining my weekly budget but I will fight the compulsive urge(s) and play anywhere from 30%-50% less money Weeks 1-4. History has proven it is the smart thing to do … at least brief history. Suggest you do the same.

Also, be aware that the salaries for players will be very easy to piece together early in the season. The algorithm used for setting salaries is using historical data and assumed expected data for the new season. Those salaries will change but I would suggest at a slower rate than Week 8 and later in the NFL season. Why?

If it is easier to put an all-star roster together and God forbid you win doing so, safe to say you are coming back the following week? Probably going to feel bullet proof and bet a little more than the week prior especially since the salaries are once again aligned and easy? And what happens if you lose that next week? Salaries are still simple to put together and, hey, you are going to double-up to catch up so no problem but you lose and guess what? There is now a few weeks of new statistics and the salaries will change and … suddenly …making it pretty to very hard for a novice to put a team together the week said novice REALLY needs a win. But, hell, this is pretty fun and everyone is doing it and surely I could not lose for a 4th straight week? As a result, the house wins and you lose in all your cash games and fail to produce in any GPP.

While it will be easier for the new to average player to create a roster and there stands to be a massive influx of such people, it will be that much easier for someone skilled to navigate those same simple salary matrices. NOTHING is in your favor the first month of the season if you are brand new to novice.

· Easier salaries benefit the new but the experienced much more so

· If training camp is the table of contents to the season, then the first month of the season is the prologue. Leading and secondary players are still being determined

· There will be a 1 month delta between salary algorithms and actual player performance. My opinion

· The novelty of the season and your excitement to place a wager clouds your overall judgment

In the words of Bill Burr … “your blank is a dreamer.” Use your grey matter and ignore the little guy in September and early October. No doubt he has taken you on many a fine expedition but this just is not his mission to lead. Have him sit this one out. Gradually increase the amount you play, as salaries stabilize based on the new statistics produced by the new league season.

Yeah ... yeah ... blah ... blah ... and not for everyone. But this is what I learned over my first few months in DFS. If this was helpful, let me know, as I have a little bit more written for the average guy that I do not mind posting.

 
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WhoDat

Footballguy
Good Dr. Bramel, I have found electronic devices counter productive to things like relaxing or bow hunting so I limit my interactions. And I deal with technology about like a cavemen finding fire ... maybe I am the last frog out of the pond ... so not my favorite way to interact. But, hey, I do not think this is going away so ... getting with it. However, I refuse to have a Facebook account. What a colossal blanking waste of human time and my line in the sand ... off soap box ... but I keep up in general. Glad to see all of you doing so well ... seriously ... good for you guys.

Appreciate the welcome back.

Bri, thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.

 

WhoDat

Footballguy
At the outset I mentioned a number of variables that will impact this season. All the coaching changes and the influx of new players and movement of veteran players will push a team and the season a certain direction. If you know what to look for and where to find it and what to consider, nothing is truly hidden. So what are those things you historically consider for redraft and how are they applicable to Fan Duel?

[SIZE=16pt]Things to Consider[/SIZE]

· What is the difference in the new coaching philosophy versus the old coaching philosophy in those instances a team changed a HC, OC or DC?

· What type of situational football will the team play: pass first or run first offense?

· Has a team made enough improvements on the defensive side of the ball that offensive possessions will increase? Does that mean more leads and more rushes? Could this potentially limit the amount of times the team will throw this season, as compared to last?

· Has a team regressed and could potentially play from behind more this season, which could result in more passing/receiving yards and fewer rushing yards?

· Did an UFA go to a situation better or worse than where he was?

· Is the UFA now the primary offensive player at his position or is he competing for offensive usage?

· Did the skill position rookie go to a situation that will result in immediate submersion into the offense?

· Did the skill position rookie go to a situation with at least one, if not more, veterans that will limit his touches?

· What rookies emerged over the last 8 games of the year? The last 4 games? (These are game splits)

· What Y2 players emerged over 16 games? Last 8? Last 4?

· What Y3 players ascended over 16 games?

Many variables and at first glance they presents themselves in a very linear manner. Logically build onto another. However, you have to think of them being isolated and, then, the totality of each of them colliding with one another at the same time. Endless possibilities but, if you take each individually and then consider best case if/then scenarios for players you are researching, more often than not you are more right than wrong.

[SIZE=16pt]Game Logs & History: Look Back to Look Ahead[/SIZE]

Within the magazine you may refer to and or the website you use for your fantasy football league there is an area that should show you game logs. Nifty statistics that show you things like the number of snaps played; number of passing targets per game; conversion of those chances; number of rushing attempts; number of rushing attempts in the RZ and yards gained for the game … endless. If the season is the story; games are the chapter and statistics are the foot notes. Pay attention and understand them. Look at the splits from last year … first 8 … next 4 … last 4 … games played for players that were rookies; 2nd year or 3rd year players. Also, look at those same numbers for players that entered a new offense last year or a team that had an overhaul to their team offense. What was the progression or regression in performance?

Let’s consider Tampa Bay’s new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter; 2nd year TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jameis Winston. First, start with the easiest data set, which is Winston; second in Jenkins and most advanced data set in Koetter.

· Winston is a rookie with no historical NFL record

· He was the top pick in the NFL draft. Expectation of 10 year plus All Pro level career

· He played in a Pro Style college offense and it is deemed he is more likely to make a positive impact this year, as opposed to college QB coming from a spread system

· Depending on what we can read and hear regarding camp he is still an unknown. Those reports will be well crafted “coach” responses so process accordingly

· He will get a fair amount of vanilla snaps versus vanilla defenses in preseason but it is an eye test in an NFL game. Closer to the truth

· His in division schedule is against teams that rated 21st (Panthers), 27 (Falcons) and 28 (Saints) last season. Yes, they made some upgrades but my early thoughts indicate those team rankings are not too far from where I would expect them to finish this coming year. Minimum they will all be in the bottom 50% of the league. This is in Winston’s favor

What about Austin-Seferian-Jenkins and his first year in the NFL

· 2nd Round draft pick in 2014. Expectation starting contributor

· Only played in 9 games due to various injuries

· TE has a 2-3 year learning curve and those lost offensive snaps will limit his ascent

· 21 Receptions; 221 Yards and 2 TD on the season: 2/24 per game average

· Total targets 38: 4 per game

· Potential 2014 16 Game Season using game Avg.: 64 Targets; 32 Receptions, 384 Yards, 3.5 TD

· J Graham’s Rookie Year: 15 Games; 44 Targets; 31 Receptions; 356 Yards; 5 TD

· Gronk’s Rookie Year: 16 games; 59 Targets; 42 Receptions; 546 Yards; 10 TD

· Graham and Gronk playing in pass heavy offenses with Brees and Brady, respectively

· Jenkins played inside of V Jackson, former Pro Bowler, and M Evans, 1st Round pick with 1, 000 plus yards and 12 TD

· He had 2 different starting QB in J McNown and M Glennon. Neither will be confused with Brees or Brady

· The team had a record of 2-14. Thus, they played from behind more often than not, which resulted in more passing opportunities. 25th rated team defense

· Tampa was void of a running game. A combo of Martin, Rainey, Sims and James does not success make rushing make

And what about Dirk Koetter’s introduction as Offensive Coordinator

· OC Jacksonville Jaguars 2007-2011

· OC & QB Coach 2011

· Atlanta Falcons OC 2012-2014

· M Lewis-TE, Jaguars 2006: 15 games; 21 Targets; 13 Receptions; 126 Yards; 1 TD

· M Lewis Per Season Avg. 07-11: 15 games; 72.8 Targets; 41.4 Receptions; 511.6 Yards and 3.2 TD and 2010 Pro Bowl Appearance

· T Gonzalez-TE, Falcons 2011: 16 Games; 116 Targets; 80 Receptions; 875 Yards; 7 TD

· T Gonzalez Per Season Avg. 12-13: 16 games; 122.5 Targets; 88 Receptions; 894.5 Yards; 8 TD

· Lewis was more or less the only viable target on the Jags run first offense those seasons

· Gonzalez was wedged between R White, 4 time Pro Bowler 09-11 and J Jones, 2012 Pro Bowl

· Lewis had D Garrard, Q Gray, C Lemon, L McKnown, Trent Edwards, Todd Bouman and … wait for it …. B Gabbert at QB

· Gonzalez had M Ryan, 2010, 2012 and 2014 Pro Bowl

· Koetter produced the following Pro Bowl Seasons: Garrard-2009; Lews-2010; Gonzalez-2012 & 2013; Ryan-2012 and Julio Jones-2012. 2 different TE had Pro Bowl seasons in his scheme

Read that a few times and process it. Here is what I think in traditional “redraft” terms and how you need to think in Fan Duel or DFS terms.

Jenkins will not be confused with Graham or Gronk this year. I gave you these numbers to put this learning lesson and chat into context. However, every foot note of combined situational past … the variables … tell me that his upcoming season and story will have him outplay what is currently an average draft position (ADP) of 18th… 18th TE drafted. Who is a rookie QB best friend? He is a TE, who will see man on man coverage all the time due to the presence of Jackson and Evans. And that TE is playing with an OC that has a proven history of utilizing the TE in the passing game. Using logic I reach a point that I think Jenkins will produce inside of the top 10-12 TE this season. He presents an ROI on his current ADP. “Redraft” thinking …

All of that via free Internet web research. How should you feel about Jenkins heading into the Fan Duel and or DFS season, as his salary is currently $4, 700 ( FD) for Week 1? Well, deeper stats … via a source like Pro Football Source … begin to demonstrate Jenkins is not that effective with the snaps he received last year. Pro Football Focus’ nominal monthly cost is worth it; I subscribe … game changer … but not at liberty to share exacts. While everything indicates Jenkins is a value in redraft and that salary is nice and low … a great GPP play … his inability to catch the ball makes him a risk in a Week 1 cash game.

You have to find alternative data sources and deviate from the normal, FF tools you have previously used. That is what I see and how I used this type of information. This is how you win and, considering I took the time to look for this on the Internet, most of what you need is there, if you look. All of the data I provided came from free sources. There are those prepared and those uniformed. Digging into the data will see more wins than losses and more cash coming in that went out.

This is exactly what I did with basketball. I paid for a basketball specific data set; learned how to apply it and despite NO experience in NBA DFS managed a profit. If you are new or novice in the DFS space, you are going to have to not necessarily do more but a different type of numbers analysis week to week. You have to start thinking ROI … Return on Investment. Can the player outperform his salary?

Have you connected to RotoWorld’s, NFL’s and Pro Football Weekly’s Twitter feeds? If not, you are missing out. Beat writers? FBG staff writers? I cannot stress enough that you R-E-A-L-L-Y need to start following this, now, if you want some understanding of what to expect over the first 4-8 weeks of the DFS season. I cannot emphasize this enough. Throw those into your Twitter feed and utilize RotoWorld’s free functionality to search updates for players. Another great, free tool …

I have covered the types of games: cash games or guaranteed prize pool (GPP). What I want to do now is dissect what you will find within Fan Duel’s Lobby. My goal here is to help you understand what you are seeing; what lies behind clicks and help you avoid a few landmines. The Lobby is the first screen you will be brought to on Fan Duel.

Next part easier if inside the FD App or home page ... written for the newest of the new ...

[SIZE=16pt]101[/SIZE]

The Lobby

Pretty self-explanatory and many enhancements since last year, if it has been a while since you have been back. Knock out a few simple items first … starting with the top line …

· Lobby

· Upcoming-These are contests that you have entered

· Live-These are active contests and where you can find your live scores if checking via a laptop or Mac product. Mobile App is far better for viewing live scoring

· History-This is where you will be able to track and see your week to week (past performance). You will have the option to download those stats into a sortable Excel document

· User Name-Your screen name. Drop down menu beside your name available after you click the down “v” arrow.

Post Drop Down Arrow

· Add Funds-This is where you will add money to your account

· Withdraw-This is where you will be able to transfer winnings into a personal account

· My Account-Personal information associated to your Fan Duel profile

· Referral Center-Where you can forward referral links to other individuals

· Promos-Active promotions associated with Fan Duel

This is the control area associated with you managing your funds and communication with Fan Duel. Above board business so you will be asked to provide your Social Security Number if and when you want to transfer funds from your Fan Duel account to PayPal or another personal account. If the winnings are above a certain threshold, you will also be sent a link later in the year to … wait for it … pay taxes.

The Games

Here they are. These are the basic game categories on Fan Duel. Within Tournaments, Leagues and 50/50 & Multipliers you will find different gaming options. Head to Heads are and will also be exactly what they say … a game between 2 people for cash.

· Tournaments-Clicking you will be able to see an array of games available. What you will want to watch is if the game is marked as a GPP, which is indicated with a Blue Icon, and or a Multi-Entry, which is an Orange Icon. You can see the two icons at the bottom of the page

· Leagues-Clicking here you will be able to view all of the leagues that have been created for a particular day. Leagues are set-up many different ways with many different pay-out scenarios

· 50/50s & Multipliers-50/50 is half of us win money, while half lose. Multipliers are games where half of us may win; 1/3 of us might win; 10% of us might win or 1st-3rd might win

· NFL Logo-This side of the screen will allow you to toggle between sports. Currently, this Lobby is set to NFL. If you click to MLB or NBA or CFB, it will take you to that sport’s Lobby and contests

· Entry Fee-You can slide either end of that bar to set search parameters for contests. You want Free to $5 contests move the dots … pretty simple

Let’s take a look at what information is available about a game once I click. Taking a look at Tournaments, which is the first option, you see the $5M NFL Sunday Million. Click that link.

Starting at the top click the Info Tab .. Blue & White, tab. We will discuss the Entries and Prizes tab next.

· The Blue & Orange Icons indicate that this is a GPP, Multi-Entry Contest

· 7, 173 entries thus far out of a possible 229, 885 (When I looked)

· Prizes are awarded to the top 46, 000 entries (Top 20%)

· Total prize pool is $5 Million

The NFL Games allowed in this schedule are the next block of information. A quick review tells you this contest is active for all Sunday games and both MNF games. Thus, it is considered a Sunday-Monday event and we can use any player(s) from these games. Finally, the third field provides you with the scoring format for this particular game, which is standard Fan Duel scoring. Scrolling down the page will allow you to view all scoring categories for offense and defense. This information for ALL contest types … H2H or League or 50/50 … is always housed under the Info tab.

Entries

By clicking over to Entries you can view each individual entry for this contest and or any contest you enter. This tab will ALWAYS show total entries for any contest entered. Quickly you notice a few owners with many entries. To view pages simply use the “>” or “>>” to begin to look through each page. Remember when we discussed multi-entry contests … winning the lottery … a space occupied by professionals with what would be an infinite bankroll to yours … here you go. You will be well served to check Entries ... every time … you enter … any type of contest.

From a multi-entry perspective you need to understand exactly what you are up against. The $5M NFL Sunday Million is the event. This is the largest field of entries with the largest prize pool so it is far end of the spectrum, as compared to smaller multi-entries. Some multi-entries will be unlimited and others will be “Limit 5” or “Limit 10”. Regardless you want to head into an event like this with at least a minimum mathematical understanding of what you are up against. This scenario starts with 20% of the field being paid and unlimited entries. Let’s take a look at how the cash is awarded.

Prizes

Click the Prizes tab. So you have determined the top 20% of players will win a part of the money. Looking closer you see what?

· $1M of the total goes to the overall winner. 20% of the total

· $350K goes to 2nd. 7%

· $150 goes to 3rd. 3 %

Really need to let that sink in … marinade … simmer … and think about this every time you enter a large field to small field multi-entry GPP and or single entry GPP. There is a BIG blanking cliff to climb to get into the prize pool and a BIGGER blanking cliff to fall off once it is time to award cash.

· $100K to 4th

· $75K to 5th

· $50K to 6th

· $30K each to 7th-8th

· $20K each to 9th-10th

· 36.5% of the prize pool resides in the Top 10

That leaves $3.15M spread over 45, 990 entries

· 11th -100th place accounts for $322, 000 / 6.4% of the total

· After the 100th place is paid 43% of the total prize pool has been awarded

That leaves $2.853 M / 57% of the prize pool to lie across 45, 900 entries

See where this math his headed? That equates to $62 per winner on average at that point on the remaining entries. For giggles here is what the bottom tier of this contest pays

· 30,001-46,000, which are 15, 999 entries, pays $40 per, which is 13% of the prize pool at a total of $639, 960. It is less than what you would win in a 50/50 or Multiplier set at 50%.

As is without any variables except basic math your chance of winning that contest is .00043%. That is assuming it is single entry, which it is not. For every entry you do not have that someone else does that number changes in their favor. Add in a variable of your experience level with Fan Duel in general and it changes in their favor. Your experience with fantasy football and it could change in their favor. Their being people doing DFS for a living or people playing DFS that just know more than you do. Say it again. Have realistic expectations entering these types of events. Spend your money wisely and push 80% into cash games and 20% into GPP. You cannot count on outright winning one of these events.

Using these functions highlighted you can examine all variables with any contest that you will enter. This needs to be done each … and … every … time … you enter a contest. It will break down all aspects of a Tournament game. It will break down all aspects of a League. It will break down all aspects of a Multiplier. The most important points you want to understand about a Tournament, League and Multiplier are single versus multi-entry; the NFL games allowed for use and prize/pay-out structure. 50/50s will also be just that but, as mentioned, some multipliers will have different cash lines and or odds. Some will be 2:1, which equates to a 50/50; some will be 3:1, which will be top third cashing; some will be 4:1, which would mean top 25% and, if a winner take all, it will be All Entries: 1. Likewise, some leagues may be a 50/50 proposition but others may follow the same suit for multipliers. More often than not a league is set in a manner that it pays 1st-3rd or 1st-5th or 1st-10th, which depends on total entries. You need to check Info, Entries and Prizes every time to view this information.

Doing my best to keep this in the realm of basis … what I just walked through are things you need to know. My intent there was to give you a road map & compass to start poking around and avoid getting lost.

Side note … the player salaries and information are available once you click Enter Contest

Enter Contest.

There are people that will title a contest to represent one thing and, well, set the rules up for something completely different. For example, they may title an event a Sunday-Monday contest; set the contest up for Sunday Early games only and, then, wait for a new person to enter. Or you are going to find many, many, many of these … “New People Only “; “No Pros” or “Less Than 50 Wins” or “Less than 100 Wins”. (Your win total is tallied by Fan Duel and is available for other people to see by clicking on your screen name.) BEWARE of this and use the tools I just described to determine what is and is not true. As far as the Less Than “X” Wins … I would hypothesize it is someone much better than you trolling for novice players or someone with more than one account setting up a league, for example, that is 3 total entries. It is single entry but they have entered twice with two different profiles. You, as an FNG … blanking new guy … enter … and promptly lose.

Use Info, Entries and Prizes. Click on the player’s name or names BEFORE you commit to enter a contest. Understand if the other player or players have thousands of wins or if they have few. People are on here to make money and, unfortunately, they will screw you. Fan Duel does its best to mitigate the whole dual account item by tracking user information against requests for transfer of winnings but, sometimes, people are, well, sh*tty … be aware.

.

Everything that is a column header is a sortable, searchable or stackable item. You can toggle the sliders on the Entry Fee bar to set cash parameters for contests. Entries/Size is also sortable from largest to smallest or smallest to largest. Prizes are also available in descending or ascending views. Start times are what they are and sortable by earliest to latest. The magnifying glass “Find” box allows you to search a named contest available to public view, as some contests are private. For example, we had our Knitting Circle Winner Take All Last year. It was an invite only contest and available to those people that received a link. It would not appear in the “Find” field if searched. So … you can click Tournament; League; H2H; 50/50 & Multipliers and, then, use those highlighted tabs to sort and search games that fit your criteria.

And, now, what I learned about line-up construction ...

[SIZE=16pt]Line-Up Construction[/SIZE]

Can you use the same line-up in a cash game and GPP game? Well, you can but you may not necessarily win in each.

· The goal of your cash game line-up is to avoid less than average and place on the right side of the scoring curve. Thus, you want to be 1 point better than average. Dodd's premise of avoiding the suck best way to describe a cash game ... avoid the suck

· The goal of your GPP line-up is to finish first, overall, and set the bell curve

· One situation mitigates risk, while the other assumes a fair amount of calculated risks

A cash game line-up can use this general rule of thumb. You want a player to achieve a minimum of 2x his salary in points. Currently, Julio Jones is $9, 000 on Fan Duel. If I were building a cash line-up for Week 1, I would ask myself if Julio Jones can score minimum of 18 points versus the Eagles. If you need my help deciphering the math on those last 2 sentences, in the words of Flavor Flav … “I can’t do noth’n for you man.” Fan Duel offers this scoring system for a WR:

· 1 point per 10 yards

· 0.5 per catch

· 6 points TD

· -2 Fumble lost

Could Julio post those numbers? Well, his per game scoring average from year using those stats were 16.5. Broken down those points look as follows: 6.9 Rec/106 Yards/2.4 … (40% of a TD). Hey … super fantasy guy that thinks Madden stats are reality … Jones’ last year per game average is ridiculous in NFL terms. He led NFC in catches and yards and was 3rd in the NFL in both categories. Suddenly, those 18 points look differently don’t they? He must out perform his per game average from last season, which was no BS by 1.5 points. Oh, and his $9, 000 salary constitutes 15% of your overall salary cap for the week.

Remember you are mitigating risks with these cash line-ups. But what variables do you weigh against Julio’s ability to net 18 points? That is another great question, Russ.

Well, what do the good people of Vegas say about this particular game? Specifically, what is the Over-under (O/U) and total for the game? Is it a high total? Is the game on the road or at home? What it the Falcons’ offense versus Eagles’ defensive match-up? What is Julio Jones individual match-up against the Eagles’ secondary? What about the Falcons’ OL versus the Eagles DL? And the Falcons’ rushing game against the Eagles’ rushing defense …do these variables indicate 18 points is possible for Julio Jones?

Vegas has a whopping 53.5 point total on our Eagles versus Falcons with the Falcons favored by 1

· 53.5 /2 is 26.75

· 26.75 + 1 (Spread) is 27.75. Projected score for Falcons

· 53.5 (Total) – 27.75 (Falcons) is 25.75

· 25.75 is projected score of the Eagles

· 27.75-25.75 Falcons victory

And

· Good people of Vegas like the Falcons by a point and they have them projected to score at least 4 TD in the game.

· The game is at home

· A look back tells us the Falcons had the 5th highest passing offense and 24th rushing offense

· Eagles had the 31st passing defense and the 15th rushing defense

· It is Week 1 so we will not have a large sample size of what this season looks like so consider last season and what you have seen with first string in Pre-Season

· Then, if you really want to dig you can look at the grades of B Maxwell; N Carroll; M Jenkins and E Wolff, who are projected … lot of preseason left … to be the Eagle starters at CB, CB, SS and FS, respectively. Pro Football Focus helps A LOT here

· Julio was targeted 163 times and or 10.8 times per game

· Ryan threw the ball 39.25 times per game

· Julio was given a chance 28% of the time the ball was thrown. This is his usage rate and he is very successful with his chances

· A Brown was at 29%; D Thomas at 31% and Dez at 29% … before you ask and so you know

Evidence supports Jones should arrive at 18 points; is worth 15% of your roster and will help you avoid the wrong side of the bell curve.

I made that is simple as possible. Statistics are open to interpretation. What I see is what I see. What you see may be different. Everything I read in that scenario tells me Jones is a very strong play in a cash game, where my goal is to avoid the wrong side of the bell curve and to mitigate risks. He is a safe investment. All things indicate a 2x return on his salary, which is once again 15% of the overall budget.

ALL of those stats provided through free resources found on the Internet. Want to make it that much better? Get yourself paid for content catering to this space. And, if you are like me and have a hard time with math … reading columns or numbers … understand this about your learning and retention process.

For example, I can retain and sort items in color so all of my stats and notes are in colors that indicate different things to me. I have to do this with the information I am using for Fan Duel.

Math … BLANKING HATE IT … and probably have glaring errors above. I know that about myself so I try to keep my research simple and easy. It makes sense to me and looks like it was finger painted by a 3 year old and his 5 year old buddy performed the needed algebra, but I get it. Another important thing I learned last year. Create a data format and workflow that works for you.

Again … all things I did not know, which I learned last year. For a brand new person I really hope this helps.

 

WhoDat

Footballguy
What about GPP line-ups?

This is where it gets a little harder. You need a few high-end, obvious players that will exceed expectations of their salary at a 3x salary rate. Also, you will need a group of lesser known players that will …

· Perform at 3-4x their salaries

· Be owned by less than 10% of the other owners

It is simple to plug in a Julio Jones but much harder to project the signature game of a lesser known player’s NFL career. Marvin Jones went 8 catches; 100 yards and 4 TD in Week 8 of the 2013 season versus the Jets. That is 38 Fan Duel points. The Jones family did not see that coming. Or did they?

Jones was playing the slot a majority of the time at that part of the 2013 season. M Sanu has playing outside opposite A.J. Green. Jones had gone 3/71/1 against Buffalo in Week 6 and 4/57/1 against Detroit in Week 7 … a positive trend in his favor. The Jets overall defense was poor with their secondary trending towards awful at the same time … another positive trend for Jones. It stood to reason that Jones was going to give the Jets problems that particular week. 4 TD … not something you could predict but all things indicated he was going to have an above average game. Following box scores and statistics is where and how you identify these players week to week and you have to find the Marvin Jones type week to week to win a GPP. You have to find the WEEK BEFORE they break-out in redraft leagues and the day of in DFS. Anyone can play Julio Jones but not everyone will know about Marvin.

And how did I remember this? Because I picked up M Jones in Week 7 and proceeded to win in Week 7 and kick the proverbial tails of my competition in Week 8 in all of my redraft leagues that year. I cannot remember where I park my truck at the airport each week unless I use the same few spots in the same general square 20 yard area but I can remember this stuff.

Having players owned by 10% or less of the other owners crosses into the concept of roster variance. Cash games need to be safe with obvious plays in an effort to make sure you arrive above the point cut-off. You want to limit stacking, which is taking a QB-WR or QB-TE or QB-WR-TE combo. Unless it is obvious such a tandem is must play you limit exposure to stacks in cash games. You may have players owned by 20-30% of other entries, which is fine in a cash game. If he does well, everyone wins. Does bad, everyone does poorly. GPP are completely different.

You need a few unique members of your line-up to hit B-I-G on a week the general public just did not see it the same way. And let’s look at big in an effort to make it tangible. Remember our example with Julio? He needed to score 18 points in our cash game. Using him in a GPP would see him needing to score 27-36 points to meet GPP value.

· 27 pts … 10 catch; 100 yards; 2 TD

· 36 pts … 10 catch; 130 yards; 3 TD

Either of those are just insane weekly stat lines for a player. I know, Madden Guy, you do that nightly with your favorite player, while wearing a head-set; talking trash and engaging in competitive video game “sword fighting” with a friend or complete stranger … stranger probably under the age of 12. Real football … those are insane weekly totals. Suddenly, Julio may not be the best investment? Everything indicates he has a prime match-up but to lay $9,000 and or 15% of our weekly budget we are going to need to find some inexpensive players off the radar that could also score 3-4x their salaries, if we were to use Julio. Maybe it becomes easier to fade him … not roster him … as he is cost prohibitive, and build a team around different players?

Here is where you need to do some of your work.

· Look at Vegas totals and seek out high scoring games

· Consider lower priced players involved in a passing game in favorable situations and or large underdogs. From a redraft language perspective … guys that could see garbage time points in the passing game constitute passing player underdogs

· Find lower tier WR, like WR2-WR3 types, with good individual match-ups and high game totals

· Find one solid RB and, then, another cheaper option with a favorable match-up and likely to score/have a shot at scoring

· Identify cheap K and D that fit into favorable match-up categories

· Stack your offense with QB-WR and or QB-WR-TE in a high scoring game

· Attempt to find a lower cost WR that has a game built around being a home-run threat. Think a guy as likely to score 0 points as he is 20. Think your WR3 slot. Last year … M Bryant, WR Steelers was this guy

· Find a cheap TE with heavy use in the RZ and a favorable weekly match-up.

Salaries for these types of players are going to be in the $4, 500 - $6, 000 range, which would mean they need to reach 13.5 – 18 (3x) or 18 – 24 (4x) points. 13.5 points … 3 Catches; 50.5 Yards and 1 TD … totally doable by a WR 3 in the right game or a lower end TE and these are the players you will have to identify to hit big in a GPP. Along with a few higher priced stars that also have monster Sundays. To win a GPP all 9 roster spots have to perform at an accelerated rate.

To give you a general idea you need to score 120 points on a Fan Duel cash game to have a chance of winning. That is the general rule of thumb. Build a line-up capable of scoring 120 plus points. A GPP needs a Fan Duel line-up that is going to score 200 plus points. That is a per player average of 13.3 for cash and 22.2 for GPP. If the goal of cash is to beat the average, the goal of the GPP is to either finish first or last. Sure, you can still win a fair amount of money by coming in 2nd, 10th or 20th but you have to build your roster with a first or last mind-set. Essentially, cash games are constructed with a high pucker factor and GPP are built with a laissez faire, blank it approach. Yes, you are still using some scientific method for your GPP but you really have to take a win all or nothing mind-set.

[SIZE=16pt]Using Different Line-ups[/SIZE]

Can you have different line-ups for cash and profit? Can you have different line-ups for GPP and profit? Different defined as multiple, unique line-ups for cash and or GPP. Meaning you use different combinations of players to help hedge your bet (for cash) or increase your odds (GPP) of winning. Another good set of questions and this is where my ability to handle mathematics ends. There is a need … substantial mathematical need … to demonstrate the data set to prove and disprove this line of questions. I tested out of college mathematics as a high school senior; attended a liberal arts college and never set foot in the business or math buildings. While I cannot give you the deep explanation, I can give you an every man’s answer.

Specific to cash games, if you have created the optimal line-up for the week do you really need to hedge your bet? Let it simmer for a minute. Through my own experiences last year and my own research I have arrived at the fact that I think a single cash game line-up is optional and most effective for bankroll management.

Build a single line-up and play it. If you absolutely must, build a second line-up and be sure to have no more than a 40% overlay between the 2 teams, which would be no more than 4 (rounded) of the same players used on each team. I found that I was winning more often and more money once I adopted a single line-up strategy for cash games in basketball. But if you have a multi line-up itch to scratch GPP could be your way to work out that itch.

GPP is an area you can build more versus less line-up(s). Remember that your winning rate in this space is going to be low AND each entry cost money. Think bankroll management. Think prolonged success over the season and not being shot a month into the season.

Quicker side note … Pfizer, the people brining you Viagra, have forever ruined the word prolonged for me. I always hear … and if you experience a prolonged erection lasting more than 4 hours … if/when I read, write or hear that word … I giggle … lose track of what I am doing and that is why we are here now … back on track here …

And remember your payroll limitations against professionals in the large prize pool, multi-entry contests. You will have to manage roster overlay … no more than a 40% of the same players used … and identify not a single team of potential break-out candidates but several teams of such players … against people that do this for a living with unlimited funds compared to you week in and out.

Basketball and my experience doing things the right way indicated that I could play 2-3 teams in large field GPP and either net $0 … break even including the vig/house … or win a little cash. My basketball GPP winning percentage was 45%. Specific to that format of contests and the number of entrants and level of competition, I found that a high outcome. Even though I was finding success I did not adjust my betting allowance up per week in this space, as the Kelly Criterion would suggest. Squirrel … nut ….squirrel … nut … squirrel … the extra money I was winning here … large chunks … is how I had sustained growth.

I would love nothing more than to see someone I know … myself included … win a significant chunk of money in a single game contest. It can happen. My purpose here, though, is to give you logical and sound advice and to keep your compulsive, not the greatest manager of gambling funds and novice to DFS self away from your bad habits.

Be really careful with the GPP and the amount of weekly money you dedicate to those games. Should you win a fair amount one week, please, stash it and keep your weekly allowance the same the following week. That is how you go from $5 to $2,000 or $200 to $20, 000 and so on and so on … blah … blah … blah

Thanks for reading

Go win some money

 

Scoresman

Footballguy
Good stuff. :thumbup:

One common piece of advice I see a lot is to look for struggling secondaries and target WRs facing them. What's the best resource to use to find these juicy matchups? Does FBG have a weekly secondary analysis/rating that takes into account injuries/struggling players and also gets down to specific probable WR/CB matchups? That would be ideal.

 

John Lee

Footballguy
Scoresman said:
Good stuff. :thumbup:

One common piece of advice I see a lot is to look for struggling secondaries and target WRs facing them. What's the best resource to use to find these juicy matchups? Does FBG have a weekly secondary analysis/rating that takes into account injuries/struggling players and also gets down to specific probable WR/CB matchups? That would be ideal.
I generally get my data from ProFootballFocus for that type of matchup, but subscribers can save themselves that legwork this year...

In my "Tips and Picks" article (every Friday night), I will identify players I think fit the bill...but, even better, we have another feature planned for this year, which is going to be exclusively based on IDP matchups! The piece will be co-written by FBG's Scott Bischoff and Aaron Rudnicki, who is an IDP guru...we think you're gonna love it--it's called, "Exposed."

For a run-down of everything we will offer for DraftKings this year, check out this recap: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=DraftKings_Footballguys_DFS_Content_2015

 

Fantasysports1

Footballguy
Scoresman said:
Good stuff. :thumbup:

One common piece of advice I see a lot is to look for struggling secondaries and target WRs facing them. What's the best resource to use to find these juicy matchups? Does FBG have a weekly secondary analysis/rating that takes into account injuries/struggling players and also gets down to specific probable WR/CB matchups? That would be ideal.
That is just one piece of the recipe. You also have:

Pace (O/U) Games with high O/U generally lead to more FPS because there are more yards projected and scores.

Recent performance : Not sure how important this is but if a player has been consistently getting 2x their salary that means he is playing well. However you do have to consider the teams that player has played against and any flukey performances.

Gameflow: This is a little different as this is gameflow. If you think a team is going to control the game with a lead or if a team is going to be down in the 4th, those are factors to consider.

 

achemen

Footballguy
Thanks WhoDat! Really great information, and great advice as I go into my first year of Fan Duel. Slow and steady wins the race....

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
NBA DFS is not for a casual fan. It is hard-core hoop fan and professional DFS players.
This is so true. I had a nice little run in the NBA after the superbowl, but nothing like your results. I was expecting there to be spill over fans from the NFL playing NBA DFS once there was no DFS, but instead found that the NBA was a hard-core group of NBA and gambling die hards. The competition was much more fierce than your garden variety NFL 50/50s.

However, I think that during the NFL season when there is some overlap with the NFL season, there should be some spillover. I'm expecting the NBA DFS scene to be quite beatable up until the NFL playoffs and the Superbowl, when it goes hardcore. I didn't get a chance to sample NBA last year from October through January, but am looking forward to it.

What I'm looking forward to even more is the NFL season with an increased number of users on Fanduel. I've got an article breaking down the user growth over the last two years, and if they can even approximate half of their year-to-year growth, we're looking at 2+ million users on Fanduel in the Q4 of this year alone.

http://www.football401k.com/4-tips-from-fanduels-financial-data/

 

Fantasysports1

Footballguy
I don't know how people win the cash games in NBA consistently. I found the competition to be tough and the daily work to be a bit much.

It seems like a lot of people are on the same players that it is tough to get enough of an edge where luck does not become a bigger factor. It seems like if just one player or two has an off night you are done.

 

WhoDat

Footballguy
Karmarooster, unless you are really prepared the early part of the NBA DFS season will see the usual suspects ... the pros ... taking a lot of cash from the flow over crowd. As in not even fair and should be ashamed. Average DFS football player is going to tinker; lose money over a week or two and get out. It will quickly be the pros and the hardcore before Thanksgiving. Same with the weeks right after the Superbowl.

NBA is not any harder than football. It just requires a SIGNIFICANT amount of time. I did both and the NBA required many, many, many more hours.

Specifically it requires real-time attention the hour leading up to tip-off and after line-ups being posted. Whole lot changes between 6 EST until tip-off. Also, the NBA does not have the same structure around the reporting of injuries. Lastly, the culture of the NBA is not that of the NFL. Guys do not necessarily play hurt. Guys pout. Guys refuse to play. Guys get sideways with a coach and their minutes slowly decline or they disappear to the end of the bench. Prima Donna athletes ... and you have to pay close attention. It is a "me" environment and it changes daily.

Key for me was figuring out minutes; who would get them; get them against their salary and offensive usage. Then, one on one defensive match-ups against those factors. Get that sorted and pay attention each afternoon and not impossible. But by no means as easy as scooping up a random H2H Fan Duel football game with a new player.

Also, variance is not as great in the NBA. If someone is on fire, as Westbrook was last year over 2 weeks, you would see him on 85-90% of cash rosters and nearly as high on GPP entires. I do not care who it is in football you NEVER see 90% ownership in cash games. And, Fantasysports1, you are right. If you do not have the right stars on the right night ... you have ZERO chance. You either go big on the right big play or you lose.

I started following the winning line-ups in my cash games ... my DU or 50/50 ... and noticed the pros would all have identical front-courts (PF/PF/C); usually similar SF; different combos at SG and usually similar PG. We are talking 7/9 -9/9 of the same players on their rosters ... every ... single night. There just was not much difference and I knew as soon as I could see all the entires if I would win or not.

Whereas you can survive in a football cash game by not having the BIG guy week in and out, just not possible in the NBA. You have to hit right to win. My experience was that the pros in cash games just did not miss.

This is why I stuck to $1-$5 entires.

 
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Fantasysports1

Footballguy
My recommendation is to condense your findings. Try to keep it simple. The most complex you should be is using excel worksheet to calculate an actual projection for a player based on various factors and their weights.

 

sn0mm1s

Footballguy
Out of curiosity - how often are you guys cashing in the large NFL GPPs? I have no interest in proper bankroll management in regards to Cash Games vs GPPs since cash games bore me but the amount wagered per week is obviously of interest. Last season, I cashed in ~28% of the GPPs I entered - with one significant win. Without the large cash my average payout was 4.1 to 1. Including the large win my average payout jumps up to 7.2 to 1.

According to the Kelly Criterion, at 4.1 to 1 I should be wagering about ~11% of my bankroll. At 7.2 to 1 I should be wagering ~18%. That seems like a pretty large jump based on one big cash in 223 GPPs played. Am I missing something here?

 
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Peyton Marino

Footballguy
Out of curiosity - how often are you guys cashing in the large NFL GPPs? I have no interest in proper bankroll management in regards to Cash Games vs GPPs since cash games bore me but the amount wagered per week is obviously of interest. Last season, I cashed in ~28% of the GPPs I entered - with one significant win. Without the large cash my average payout was 4.1 to 1. Including the large win my average payout jumps up to 7.2 to 1.

According to the Kelly Criterion, at 4.1 to 1 I should be wagering about ~11% of my bankroll. At 7.2 to 1 I should be wagering ~18%. That seems like a pretty large jump based on one big cash in 223 GPPs played. Am I missing something here?
sample size is going to be an issue here (I realize that's why you asked other people what their cash rates were). how are you defining GPPs? strictly large field (>100) tourneys? small leagues (125-250) where the top 12 cash? triple ups? quintuple ups? etc.

my feeling is 10-20% wagered per GPP lineup is going to be too much. personally i'd use some fraction of kelly (somewhere between .25-.5 kelly seems about right IMO) especially until you have more data to accurately judge your edge. you have to be really good for your bankroll to withstand the variance of going full kelly.

 

sn0mm1s

Footballguy
Out of curiosity - how often are you guys cashing in the large NFL GPPs? I have no interest in proper bankroll management in regards to Cash Games vs GPPs since cash games bore me but the amount wagered per week is obviously of interest. Last season, I cashed in ~28% of the GPPs I entered - with one significant win. Without the large cash my average payout was 4.1 to 1. Including the large win my average payout jumps up to 7.2 to 1.

According to the Kelly Criterion, at 4.1 to 1 I should be wagering about ~11% of my bankroll. At 7.2 to 1 I should be wagering ~18%. That seems like a pretty large jump based on one big cash in 223 GPPs played. Am I missing something here?
sample size is going to be an issue here (I realize that's why you asked other people what their cash rates were). how are you defining GPPs? strictly large field (>100) tourneys? small leagues (125-250) where the top 12 cash? triple ups? quintuple ups? etc.

my feeling is 10-20% wagered per GPP lineup is going to be too much. personally i'd use some fraction of kelly (somewhere between .25-.5 kelly seems about right IMO) especially until you have more data to accurately judge your edge. you have to be really good for your bankroll to withstand the variance of going full kelly.
Smallest entry last season was ~1100 people. Average size was ~68000. So, top heavy GPPs where (IIRC) the top 17%-19% cash. Last year, I was entering the largest GPPs at the various buy in levels. Usually that was 10-15 entries split between $2, $5, $10, and $25 dollar buy ins.

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
According to the Kelly Criterion, at 4.1 to 1 I should be wagering about ~11% of my bankroll. At 7.2 to 1 I should be wagering ~18%. That seems like a pretty large jump based on one big cash in 223 GPPs played. Am I missing something here?
You need to base things on your long-term expected win-rate. Your past win-rate is evidence of your long-term expected win-rate, but they're not the same thing.

If the average entrant's long-term win rate in a certain type of contest is 18%, and if your win-rate in past tournaments has been 25% in a small sample, you might expect your true long-term win-rate to be around 20%. If you've won 25% over a large sample, you might expect your true long-term win-rate to be around 23%.

If you ignore complicating factors like your expected improvement going forward compared to the expected improvement of the field generally, and instead just hold everyone's skill-level constant for simplicity, your expected long-term win-rate will always be somewhere in between your actual past win-rate and the average win-rate for all players (or, if you want to refine things a bit, the average win-rate for all players with your general characteristics -- e.g., are you a Footballguys subscriber, etc.).

That's because regression toward the mean is always a factor.

If your past results are over a very small sample, you'll have to regress toward the mean quite a bit. If your past results are over a very large sample, you'll have to regress toward the mean only a little. The larger the sample, the more closely your past results will reflect your expected future results. But they'll never be exactly equal. Some amount of regression will always be appropriate.

So while your past results are sensitive to that one big win (going from 4.1-1 to 7.2-1), your future long-term expectation isn't that sensitive to it because both numbers have to be regressed substantially to the mean, so they end up a lot closer together.

 
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WhoDat

Footballguy
My recommendation is to condense your findings. Try to keep it simple. The most complex you should be is using excel worksheet to calculate an actual projection for a player based on various factors and their weights.
This. Sound advice

New guys, if you do digging and do some reading on this thing my parents call "The Google", you will eventually find MANY articles or posts talking about programs and models and this and that used/leveraged within DFS

As it is said ... Keep It Simple Stupid; Less is More

Get your foundation. Create a logical workflow. Add complex tools once you understand the mechanics of FD or DK.

Think early man finds fire; burned; is perfectly content with a torch and, then, suddenly determines he needs the world's largest neon light display possible before he has truly harnessed the power of fire.

Do not be afraid to carry that torch around the jungle for a while. It will keep you warm; Help navigate A-B and provide enough light you will not get lost. Make it from cave to waterhole to cave and back for a few weeks ... maybe time to have a gas lamp and, then, a flashlight, etc. No need to go Time Square complicated. Excel and some stats and projections ... basic fire ... will get you around

Huge mistake I made

Currently wearing a Petzl headlamp and in no way ashamed

The Line-Up tool FBG offers ... throw your players in and out ... manipulate salaries against projects ... SIMPLE ... most of the heavy lifting done ... easy to carry around the jungle ... perfect tool. Used it all last year. Will use in addition to this year

 

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