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Fanduel/Draftkings Week 7
- Thread starter jandyt
- Start date
Steeler
Footballguy
Why the #### did I start Hoyer in 60% of my lineups this week?!?!?!?!? I am never playing a bargain QB again this year. Every ####### time it blows up in my face.
Pantherz
Footballguy
Yeah I got real smart and used 40% Bridgewater and 15% Bortles. Still got some Derek Carr to go.
Just can't help myself with the cheap QBs.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Did anyone else go with the Dalton/Graham combo at QB/TE? 5.04 points.
snogger
Footballguy
Ok, so this entry in FBG will get me at least $20 as it is 29th right now..... But my other FBG entry.. Well, only on a wing and prayer as my current ranking is 496 of 906Best line-up of 3 so far was a Last minute entry:
Philip Rivers
Matt Forte
Justin Forsett
Doug Baldwin
Julio Jones
Golden Tate
Jordan Reed
Shayne Graham
Buffalo Bills
as of 3:20pm 122.28 points
karmarooster
Footballguy
I've given up doing extensive research into matchups, metrics, and projections etc. Also I've largely given up on reading any number of sites several weekly articles of "must plays" and "bargain plays" etc. etc. If you were to collect all of the Recommended Plays at FBGs, Roto, DLF, and whatever other websites, you'd quickly develop a list of the majority of even decent plays.
Instead, I've started crowd-sourcing based on the Thursday night lineups (and using the Playing the Percentages article) which basically does this for me. If any player has a huge ownership, he's most likely going to be a good matchup at a good price. If playing 50/50 and Doubles, you don't need to beat the crowd, you just need to join the herd.
Case and point: Going into this weekend, it was clear that among others some of the highest owned players would be Forsett (45%) - G.Tate (38%) - Reed (39%). Tate was good, Forsett and Reed were kind blah. But they combined to make up 43.8 points, at a combined salary of 18,300, for an average of 417 $/points. On average, well over enough to cash in 50/50s and Double ups.
When highly owned players suck, it doesn't hurt you as much, because by definition many other people have them. If you were to put on a spectrum worst to best outcomes it would go like this:
Bad play, low ownership --> Bad play, high ownership --> Good play, high ownership --> Good play, low ownership
Obviously in tournaments, you want to be on the far right side there with a unique lineup that goes off. But for cash games, all you really need to do is avoid the suck, and you can eliminate the far left scenario simply by playing players with high owner ships (who coincidentally will usually be good plays). Furthermore, even if you play a roster of all highly owned players, the combination is still fairly unique. For example, the Forsett-Tate-Reed example above, when combined, should only be on about 6% of rosters. Throw in another highly owned player at about 25%, and you're down to just a percent or two.
This has worked well the last two weeks, and the week before that according to the article's history.
Basis for the idea -
Therefore, replicating the highest owned players should be better than (1) any single amateur's analysis of the 'best' matchups, and (2) the estimates of the 'experts' such as Dodds and Condia, etc.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Many eggs in the Arian + Bullock and Andre+ Bullock baskets. This could be a profitable week or a losing week depending on those players.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
How does everyone put their lineups together?
I generally start with the QB and RBs I want at their respective values, then fill in the backside of things with a kicker and defense and value TE.
WRs are so plentiful, so I do them last and just find the best configuration of 3 with my remaining budget. If I'm $100 off here or there, I mess around with the kicker and defense to get the best lineup for me.
I generally start with the QB and RBs I want at their respective values, then fill in the backside of things with a kicker and defense and value TE.
WRs are so plentiful, so I do them last and just find the best configuration of 3 with my remaining budget. If I'm $100 off here or there, I mess around with the kicker and defense to get the best lineup for me.
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snogger
Footballguy
I actually start off with D, K and TE.. From there I usually go to QB, cheap WR..
Now I know what I have left
wise to get a top RB or 2 as well as at least one top WR.. After which I'll start playing around with.. OK, if I drop this TE/K/Def down to this one, does that give me enough to upgrade at the other positions??Then again, I've been hovering around $40 all year.. Was up to $80, then down to $30, now back to $50 so I'm probably not the guy to copy
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ajm27501
Footballguy
I use a similar method, but it varies from week to week what position I lock in first, sometimes there's one QB that I really want to use, other times there's a TE or a WR. I can't stress enough how amazing Maurile's interactive charts are, especially with the updates that he's done this year. Gives some great ideas. That all said, I'm slightly on the downside doing small stakes as well.
On an unrelated note, looks like I'm making it through in the $100k survivor, which means I made it to the money, which is really exciting. Hopefully there are a lot of fellow FBGs still alive as well.
On an unrelated note, looks like I'm making it through in the $100k survivor, which means I made it to the money, which is really exciting. Hopefully there are a lot of fellow FBGs still alive as well.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I think we all slept on a couple players this past weekend and they seem somewhat obvious.
I had Golden Tate in a couple lineups but not the big ones for some reason. He was obvious with Megatron out.
Doug Baldwin should have been obvious to us since Percy Harvin was just shipped out. Who else was Russell going to rely on as his top target?
Sammy Watkins was not obvious as he's been up and down all season and a rook.
Denard Robinson and Jerick McKinnon were not obvious.
Murray, Cobb and Forte obvious.
I should have had Tate in every lineup this week. Why didn't I?
I had Golden Tate in a couple lineups but not the big ones for some reason. He was obvious with Megatron out.
Doug Baldwin should have been obvious to us since Percy Harvin was just shipped out. Who else was Russell going to rely on as his top target?
Sammy Watkins was not obvious as he's been up and down all season and a rook.
Denard Robinson and Jerick McKinnon were not obvious.
Murray, Cobb and Forte obvious.
I should have had Tate in every lineup this week. Why didn't I?
snogger
Footballguy
I guess but..ctrlaltdefeat said:
How'd Golden Tate work out last week vs. The Vikings?? I played him one lineup, but after getting burned last week I was still
even if it was against the Saints.. and late into the 4th quarter it was not looking good for Tate and then BOOM.Based on Tate last week, you could easily see why not a lot of people wanted to jump on Baldwin this week as the Harvin trade happened so close the weekend that thinking Baldwin would step right up wasn't very obvious as one may think.
Cobb is tough to say "Obvious" seeing as Jordy and Devante seemed to be the most targeted lately.. But hindsight being 20/20 you could say Cobb was due..
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I'm just throwing this stuff out there because I'm unsure if we should be seeing these plays or not. I didn't really see any of them except tate. Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin weren't even near my radar. Just trying to find a way to get us all to communicate if we see some really nice plays.I guess but..How'd Golden Tate work out last week vs. The Vikings?? I played him one lineup, but after getting burned last week I was stillctrlaltdefeat said:
Based on Tate last week, you could easily see why not a lot of people wanted to jump on Baldwin this week as the Harvin trade happened so close the weekend that thinking Baldwin would step right up wasn't very obvious as one may think.
Cobb is tough to say "Obvious" seeing as Jordy and Devante seemed to be the most targeted lately.. But hindsight being 20/20 you could say Cobb was due..
I thought Kaep was one this weekend but he absolutely blows!
snogger
Footballguy
It is where Maurile's interactive charts come in handy.. My best lineup of the week had Baldwin and Tate playing..I'm just throwing this stuff out there because I'm unsure if we should be seeing these plays or not. I didn't really see any of them except tate. Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin weren't even near my radar. Just trying to find a way to get us all to communicate if we see some really nice plays.I guess but..How'd Golden Tate work out last week vs. The Vikings?? I played him one lineup, but after getting burned last week I was stillctrlaltdefeat said:
Based on Tate last week, you could easily see why not a lot of people wanted to jump on Baldwin this week as the Harvin trade happened so close the weekend that thinking Baldwin would step right up wasn't very obvious as one may think.
Cobb is tough to say "Obvious" seeing as Jordy and Devante seemed to be the most targeted lately.. But hindsight being 20/20 you could say Cobb was due..
I thought Kaep was one this weekend but he absolutely blows!
I entered in who I knew I wanted for my 3rd game entry..
Rivers, Julio Jones, Matt Forte, Jordan Reed, Shayne Graham, Buffalo Bills
Then through the magic of his chart I'd let it pick the best..
Even though I was unsure on Tate and Baldwin, I figured it was worth a shot to go with the consensus to fill in the rest.. and it ended up being my best lineup of the week.
newbetterbucs07
Footballguy
Put down $15 this week, and have $25 currently. Depending on how tonight goes, I should probably have anywhere from $25-50.
This is my highest team of the week:
Carson Palmer
Demarco Murray
Justin Forsett
Jordy Nelson
Michael Floyd
Golden Tate
Jordan Reed
Shaun Suisham
Bills D
Currently have 118.82 with Suisham left to play which is good for 66 out of 574. If Suisham has a big night, I should be much closer to $50 than $25 cause I have him on all my teams this week.
Carson Palmer
Andre Ellington
Justin Forsett
Jordy Nelson
Antonio Brown
Golden Tate
Jordan Reed
Shaun Suisham
Bills D
This is my other team that actually may outscore my first team if Brown has a good night. Currently at 105.92 which is good for 1234 out of 4597.
This is my highest team of the week:
Carson Palmer
Demarco Murray
Justin Forsett
Jordy Nelson
Michael Floyd
Golden Tate
Jordan Reed
Shaun Suisham
Bills D
Currently have 118.82 with Suisham left to play which is good for 66 out of 574. If Suisham has a big night, I should be much closer to $50 than $25 cause I have him on all my teams this week.
Carson Palmer
Andre Ellington
Justin Forsett
Jordy Nelson
Antonio Brown
Golden Tate
Jordan Reed
Shaun Suisham
Bills D
This is my other team that actually may outscore my first team if Brown has a good night. Currently at 105.92 which is good for 1234 out of 4597.
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newbetterbucs07
Footballguy
Teams ended up with 132.82 and 137.54, respectively. Good for $44. Very happy with my teams this week.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Similar to mine:
Manning
Hillman
Oliver
Demaryius
Wheaton - bleh
Eddie Royal
Gates
Suisham
Steelers
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Risked $35 this week - won $1050. Placed 6th in the big $5 GPP. With a lineup of:
Romo
Murray
Forte
Watkins
Tate
Andre Holmes
Daniels
Santos
Vikings
I was this --><--- close to putting in Baldwin for Holmes but I figured the Seahawks would probably be running out the clock on the Rams and the Raiders would be doing nothing but passing to catch up to the Cards. That was the difference between winning 1k and 10K if I had kept the same lineup with only that switch. I didn't pull the trigger because I was debating Romo/Holmes and Rivers/Baldwin and thought Holmes was safer than Baldwin and Rivers/Romo was likely a push.
Romo
Murray
Forte
Watkins
Tate
Andre Holmes
Daniels
Santos
Vikings
I was this --><--- close to putting in Baldwin for Holmes but I figured the Seahawks would probably be running out the clock on the Rams and the Raiders would be doing nothing but passing to catch up to the Cards. That was the difference between winning 1k and 10K if I had kept the same lineup with only that switch. I didn't pull the trigger because I was debating Romo/Holmes and Rivers/Baldwin and thought Holmes was safer than Baldwin and Rivers/Romo was likely a push.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Also had a good week on FD, up about 90% on the season now after trending down a bit the first few weeks. Nothing earth shattering like winning a huge tourney, but did really well in the 50/50s and Doubles, perfect 5/5 for $50 and $25 entries.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
wk entered won net roi
1 $224.00 $335.00 $111.00 49.6%
2 $208.00 $315.00 $107.00 51.4%
3 $377.00 $311.60 -$65.40 -17.3%
4 $419.00 $633.80 $214.80 51.3%
5 $392.00 $413.80 $21.80 5.6%
6 $540.00 $626.40 $86.40 16.0%
7 $500.00 $682.80 $182.80 36.6%
Thrilled with this result considering I had either Hoyer or Cutler at QB in 75% of my lineups. On to week 8...
1 $224.00 $335.00 $111.00 49.6%
2 $208.00 $315.00 $107.00 51.4%
3 $377.00 $311.60 -$65.40 -17.3%
4 $419.00 $633.80 $214.80 51.3%
5 $392.00 $413.80 $21.80 5.6%
6 $540.00 $626.40 $86.40 16.0%
7 $500.00 $682.80 $182.80 36.6%
Thrilled with this result considering I had either Hoyer or Cutler at QB in 75% of my lineups. On to week 8...
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Got what I needed from Arian to win most of those lineups. Needed a bit more from Andre to win most of those. Why did it take 55 minutes to start getting him the ball?