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FanDuel - Week 3 (1 Viewer)


Balt -7 @ NE 43
Buf -5.5 @ Mia 52.5
Cin -5 @ NYJ 44.5
NOS -3 @ Car 40.5
Minn -6 vs Det 52.5
KC -6.5 @ Ind 50
LVR -2 @ Tenn 45.5
Phi -7 @ Wash 47.5
Chi -2.5 vs Hou 40.5
LAC -7 vs Jax 47.5
TB -2 vs GB 41
Sea -2 vs Atl 42
LAR -4 @ Ari 49
Single gamer tonight. FanDuel. Give me all the Browns RBs, Browns D, Browns K, and run it back with Najee. Low scoring, old school, ugly game tonight.
First attempt for the main slate. To be used in a private 5-team competition. Thoughts?

Hurts 8,100

Fournette 7,200
Mostert 5,500

Diggs 8,300
Samuel 6,300
London 6,200

Ertz 5,200

Kupp 9,800

Patriots 3,300
First attempt for the main slate. To be used in a private 5-team competition. Thoughts?

Hurts 8,100

Fournette 7,200
Mostert 5,500

Diggs 8,300
Samuel 6,300
London 6,200

Ertz 5,200

Kupp 9,800

Patriots 3,300
I prefer Pierce over Mostert and JuJu/Robinson/Thielen/D Smith over Samuel. All priced similar.
I am working with this for now:

Hurts-Mixon/Cook/Fournette-Juju/M Williams/D Brown-Hockenson-Bengals
Very different week this week with a lot better QB options and a few more games that look good. What stuck out to me is that I, like everybody else want to play the chalkier stacks - Mia/Buff at the top of my list. So where I began was looking at non-stack positions first, and I think I am just going to do my usual in weeks like this - play the chalk stacks, and differentiate at the volatile positions of TE and DT.

For example, it looks like just about any D on DK more than 3.2K and on FD more than 4.1k besides New Orleans is 2% owned or less.
On both sites, it looks like TEs like Pitts, Everett, Irv Smith, Knox, L.Thomas, etc.. are 5% or less as well.

So my lean is to go overweight on all those ideas and then just play what I want for stacks. Ekeler is one on both sites that looked like a good gpp play too.
Scaled back this week. Playing 9 50/50s and a couple small $$ GPPs. Playing with house money after a good week 1 & 2.

As most of my leagues are already full, I feel fine sharing my approach.

Here are the players I built around:

QB10 Burrow $7500
QB13 Tua $7300
QB19 Lawrence $7000

NYJ is a better offense than expected and the Bengals are spotty on defense, so NYJ/CIN could be a shootout. Burrow at QB10 seems a nice value. With Tua, you have a few questions to ask. Was last week a fluke? Is Buffalo DEF too good to play a QB against? On paper it's a bad matchup, but Baltimore looked like a bad matchup last week too. This could easily become another shootout, in which case Tua is likely to rack up some stats (even if there are some INTs mixed in there too). At QB13 the price is reasonable to take some gambles. I like Lawrence for cheap as a rotational option in lineups where I needed to save $$$. Also grabbed one share each of Allen and Hurts to add more diversity to my portfolio. Going with a pretty even blend here, as opposed to maxing one player.

RB4 McCaffrey $8500
RB6 Mixon $8300
RB9 Clyde $7300
RB17 Sanders $6800
RB18 Gibson $6700

Like this price on CMC vs. a very middling NO team. Possibility for a monster game and you're getting a discount from JT, Henry, Ekeler. Mixon is my go-to mid-level RB1 this season. Not been a sexy choice, but he's always a strong bet for high volume and the offense will generate scoring chances. A little iffy on Clyde, but mixed him into some teams at a modest $7300 price point. Sanders and Gibson look like clear value when you weigh production + likely workload + cost. Been going to the Gibson well often this season and so far his price is still quite low for a three down back with goal line potential. Would've been mighty interested in Josh Jacobs at $6500 this week if not for the weird illness situation. Had to pull him out of some lineups.

WR4 Chase $8500
WR7 AJ Brown $8000
WR10 Waddle $7500
WR12 Pittman $7400
WR16 Kirk $7100
WR19 McLaurin $6900
WR21 Metcalf $6700
WR25 DJ Moore $6400
WR27 Samuel $6300
WR28 London $6200
WR32 Lazard $6000

As usual, lots to love here in the mid-level WR ranks. Still plenty of guys in the 6-7k range who figure to have large target volume. I just mixed and matched, with an eye on my RB/TE picks to avoid redundancy in any given lineup. On the high end, I like Chase and Brown for a discount over Jefferson and Kupp. Tyreek may still be underpriced, but Waddle for almost $1k cheaper is the more appealing piece to me. Pittman at WR12 is great value if he's healthy because he's such a target magnet on that team. Kirk continues to be a nice play, as does DJ Moore. You can make a case for any of the WAS WRs at their lowish prices. Also intrigued by the Jets, though I didn't pick any. Wilson and Elijah could be good picks. London and Lazard make sense as cheap options with a high probability of good target numbers. Metcalf has been a flop this season, but at some point he's going to have a big game. Mixed in him into some lineups for variety.

TE7 Pitts $5600
TE8 Goedert $5500

I'm on the Pitts train, and I'll keep selecting him until he finally has a big week. He's too good to be this unproductive indefinitely. For a massive discount vs. Andrews and Kelce, I'll roll the dice. Mixed in Goedert for certain lineups where I had Drake London at WR, as I don't think ATL will be lighting up the scoreboard enough to yield two great receiving weeks.

Falcons DEF vs. SEA $3700 - Two bad offenses that will be punting and trading FGs. Seattle has a below par QB and a suspect running game.
Raiders DEF vs. TEN $3400 - Titans are bad, bad, bad. Henry has yet to get rolling this season. Hoping it doesn't happen this week.
Seahawks DEF vs. ATL $3400 - Hard to see this one being a shootout, so the Seahawks are probably a safe bet to yield a decent score.
Jaguars DEF vs. LAC $3200 - Cheap play vs. a QB with injured ribs. Not the worst idea. Jags aren't as bad as everyone thinks.

I've been quite fortunate to find massive value for cheap from the DEF slots so far this season, but I don't love any of the plays this week. My lineups feature an even blend of the above options, rotating based on excess budget and interaction with other roster pieces (i.e. not playing ATL def on teams where I picked Metcalf, not playing SEA def on my Pitts/London teams when possible).
Gpps teams I landed on:

Both sites = Buff, Minn, Cinci, LV
FD = also LaC
DK = LaR

On each site there were 6-7 DTs that showed up as having high sack Potential ratings and 2% ownership or less, so I set those at minimum 10% ownership of those (TB, Tenn, Minn, Wash, Chic, Jets, Buff). Same with the TEs that I saw with good leverage scores or low ownership %s. Main group is: L.Thomas, Everett, Higbee, Hurst, Henry.

Trying 150 LUs on FD again. Haven't decided what I am doing on DK yet.
Small L for me this week. Got quite a few things right. Also had some misses.

Mainly missed on the RBs. Mixon and Sanders tanked a few rosters.

Feels like RB has been the hardest position for me to pick this year, as it seems like flipping coins to get a big game.
Rough week. Lots of the chalk or better plays didn’t do much (Kupp, Jefferson, Montgomery, Cousins, Swift, Adams, etc etc).

I won some with my Hurts led lineups but definitely down overall for the week.

On to next week…
Best week of the NFL season for me. Made a little, but nothing special. Missed on most RBs, but I think a lot of people did.

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