Fanduel Week 6 (2 Viewers)

[Scoresman]

Here's my player pool for this week give or take.  So far, the chalk has been to pay up at RB and find value at WR.  This might be the first week it makes more sense to spread salary around the positions a bit more evenly.  

Cash games

QB: Watson in KC in what could be a shootout.  Lamar Jackson at home vs. Cincy should be a laugher.  Matt Ryan vs. ARI's atrocious defense.   

RB: No CMC in the main slate means some salary relief compared to recent weeks, but it also means no automatic points in his slot.  Kamara is going against Football Outsider's worst run defense, but this game features two of the top 5 slowest paced teams in the NFL.  Also like Fournette in the same game but have the same pace concern.  David Johnson does not look like the David Johnson we used to know, but they are playing Atlanta in a game that should have a ton of plays.  Not sure I want to trust Ingram in a cash game, especially since I will most likely land on Jackson at QB, but he is in a good spot too.  LeVeon Bell will probably be super chalky.  Should be the first week the Jets offense is at full strength so this could be interesting to watch.   

WR: In light of not having CMC and his salary in our lineups this week, I would like to officially welcome Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Thomas to my player pool!  I like Julio the best of this bunch.  Adam Thielen in the mid-tier should be in a good spot to produce.  Once again, there are many value WR options even though the salary relief may not be necessary.  Chark, Jeffery, McLaurin, Fitzgerald, Hollywood Brown.  

TE: Austin Hooper will be very highly owned going up against Arizona.  Probably a set and forget there, but I also like Mark Andrews.  After Arizona held Eifert to basically nothing last week, they are no longer the worst team vs. the TE!!! Cincinnati is actually worse now and I look to Jackson/Andrews to get back on track this week.  

Defense: No idea.  A cheap SF Defense on the road in LA?  Do we think they're for real?  Otherwise I think there's enough salary relief to pay up for Baltimore.  

 

[karmarooster]

In addition to the QBs you listed, also like Kyler Murray against the atrocious ATL pass defense.  

On David Johnson, he's looking questionable and his backup Chase Edmonds is just $5200.  Difficult to plug in though as that's a 4pm game.

I like Ingram and actually have more confidence in him that Lamar, as that game could easily get out of hand (although they both were able to feast against Miami).

Julio and Hopkins were also my main targets at WR, although i tend to favor julio due to the matchup being slightly more favorable.

I'm still stuck on the chalk plays of Fitz and Hollywood, but they've been very mediocre for several weeks.

Locked in on Hooper too, but the Andrews play is intriguing - unfortunately he has some kind of foot injury that will likely keep me away.

For Defense I was looking at the Cowboys before Darnold was announced back for the Jets - but it's an easy pivot to Balt.  

Tentative placeholder for the main slate:

Murray

Kamara / Ingram

Julio / Hollywood / Fitz

Hooper

Peterson or Chase Edmonds --> I don't love this as Washington is away, and Miami is coming off the bye.  OTOH, Edmonds is at 4pm so may not have confirmation that DJ is out until after 1pm kickoffs.  

Ravens

 

[Galileo]

Here is the line up I threw in last night while watching MNF...will start looking a little more critically at it tonight when I have some more time.

Ryan, Elliott, Carson, Thompson, Theilin, Fuller, Chark, Hooper, SEA

I feel like this may be chasing points a little with those WRs.  Not sure how anyone can watch that Monday Night game and not put Carson and and SEA defense in play vs. CLE...maybe Wilson, Lockett, and Dissly too!!!  Ha ha.  Yes, I am a Browns fan.

 

[jerseys finest]

Placeholder lineup to hold my weekly gpp entries until further assessment 

cousins 

Carson/Mixon

Fitz/Thielen/woods

Elliott

Skins 

 

[Megla]

OK, what am I missing here?  Why are the FBG guys so high on LBell this week? 

 

[KarmaPolice]

OK, what am I missing here?  Why are the FBG guys so high on LBell this week? 

Dallas just got torched by AJones, I think Darnold is back, and Bell gets the 2nd most touches/g of the Rbs on the main slate.  Isnt he cheap too? 

I love him on dk, but cant remember his price on FD.  If it's less than 7k, then it's a similar spot that Fournette was in last week.  

 

[Megla]

Dallas just got torched by AJones, I think Darnold is back, and Bell gets the 2nd most touches/g of the Rbs on the main slate.  Isnt he cheap too? 

I love him on dk, but cant remember his price on FD.  If it's less than 7k, then it's a similar spot that Fournette was in last week.  

6800

and

Thanks

 

[Zyphros]

Yeah that's what I noticed building a lineup this morning too.  Lev is so cheap and volume is easily there, along with Darnold back he'll be the chalkiest RB this week I imagine.  Lots of easy targets to find in the mid tier WR range and you can still pay up everywhere else.  I like building on Fanduel more as it's easier with their pricing, but that also makes me question it more because everyone's lineup "looks" good.  It's hard to make a lineup that looks questionable.

Anyways my first look at it all this is the lineup I came up with for cash.  

Watson

Lev Bell, Kamara, Ingram

Diggs, Boyd, Fitzgerald

Hooper (ARI D thank you)

Broncos

The only question I have is Boyd but they figure to be down, throw a lot and he is the #1 there but I have told myself that before and it hasn't worked out.  I'll have to dive into some numbers there to see about Cincinnati.  They play at Baltimore so I like it more than if they were at home.  Ingram is the opposite where they're home, should control the game, it's just an easy projection of gamescript, but those can go wrong.  He seems safe enough though.  

 

[Galileo]

Dallas just got torched by AJones, I think Darnold is back, and Bell gets the 2nd most touches/g of the Rbs on the main slate.  Isnt he cheap too? 

I love him on dk, but cant remember his price on FD.  If it's less than 7k, then it's a similar spot that Fournette was in last week.  

I'm not feeling it.  Maybe because I am a pessimistic Bell owner in my main season long league.  Dallas did get torched by Jones.  But that has not been their pattern the other 4 weeks and the Green Bay offense may have a little more going for it in general than the NYJ.  Yes, Darnold returns, and while the NYJ offense can't get much worse than it has been, I don't see it getting significantly better...at least not immediately.  What has Darnold done in the NFL to give anyone such high expectations.  He is basically one game beyond his rookie season, throws as many INTs as TDs, and has QB rating somewhere in the 70s.  He isn't exactly striking fear into opposing defenses.  I see no reason why Dallas can not game plan to stop Bell.  Bell does get volume, and he is favorably priced so I get the attention.  But I don't know if he should be as chalky as signs are pointing.  For the sake of my season long team, I hope I'm wrong.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

I'm not feeling it.  Maybe because I am a pessimistic Bell owner in my main season long league.  Dallas did get torched by Jones.  But that has not been their pattern the other 4 weeks and the Green Bay offense may have a little more going for it in general than the NYJ.  Yes, Darnold returns, and while the NYJ offense can't get much worse than it has been, I don't see it getting significantly better...at least not immediately.  What has Darnold done in the NFL to give anyone such high expectations.  He is basically one game beyond his rookie season, throws as many INTs as TDs, and has QB rating somewhere in the 70s.  He isn't exactly striking fear into opposing defenses.  I see no reason why Dallas can not game plan to stop Bell.  Bell does get volume, and he is favorably priced so I get the attention.  But I don't know if he should be as chalky as signs are pointing.  For the sake of my season long team, I hope I'm wrong.  

I get all that, and I like him a lot more on DK than on FD with the ppr.   I think there are better TD spots elsewhere on the slate in the same price range.  I think a lot has to do with him having the same usage as Fournette, and now he's basically the same price as Fournette was last week when he exploded.   A cash placeholder that I just put in:

L.Jackson - Ingram/Carson/Henry - Thielen/Gallup/Sutton - Hooper - Tenn

 

[Galileo]

I get all that, and I like him a lot more on DK than on FD with the ppr.   I think there are better TD spots elsewhere on the slate in the same price range.  I think a lot has to do with him having the same usage as Fournette, and now he's basically the same price as Fournette was last week when he exploded.   A cash placeholder that I just put in:

L.Jackson - Ingram/Carson/Henry - Thielen/Gallup/Sutton - Hooper - Tenn

I like it...I currently have a similar one... Jackson, Elliott, Carson, Henry, Boyd, Chark, Sutton, Hooper, SEA.  Henry and Bell are basically the same price point, so I could easily pivot to Bell...if his ownership is going to be super high, I made need to go there just to keep up with the Joneses (or the Bell's as the case may be)  It would suck if 75% of the field hit on something I don't have.

 

[Zyphros]

I'm not feeling it.  Maybe because I am a pessimistic Bell owner in my main season long league.  Dallas did get torched by Jones.  But that has not been their pattern the other 4 weeks and the Green Bay offense may have a little more going for it in general than the NYJ.  Yes, Darnold returns, and while the NYJ offense can't get much worse than it has been, I don't see it getting significantly better...at least not immediately.  What has Darnold done in the NFL to give anyone such high expectations.  He is basically one game beyond his rookie season, throws as many INTs as TDs, and has QB rating somewhere in the 70s.  He isn't exactly striking fear into opposing defenses.  I see no reason why Dallas can not game plan to stop Bell.  Bell does get volume, and he is favorably priced so I get the attention.  But I don't know if he should be as chalky as signs are pointing.  For the sake of my season long team, I hope I'm wrong.  

I don't think the expectation is super high on his return, I think it's more of a feeling of a true QB behind the helm.  That can help a lot.  Luke Falk is arguably one of the worst options in the entire league as a backup, since there's quite a few backup QB's that have come into games already this year. 

The second Darnold gets back into action, there's at least total control over what's going on.  I have to assume they'll at least be more efficient of an offense with their actual starter playing.  They at least have a much better chance to keep the game close than if Falk were in.  

I get the skepticism for Bell and I think the concerns are valid, but I'm chasing that volume on what I'm hoping Darnold can make it a close enough game so the high volume turns into something.  

 

[Megla]

Cash LUs week 6

LU #1

QB

Lamar- Were several QBs I considered here, Murray, Watson/Ryan/Wilson/Dak(didn't really look at Mahomes because of the uncertain ankle).  With the rushing component Lamar settled in at #1

RBs

Cook-Safest floor for a RB in the main slate IMHO

Fournette- Sharp selection and has had 2 large weeks, also Jax will be looking to control TOP to protect a very suspect rush Def.  As a note, Ramsey was limited Wed at practice and if he plays MThom needs to be bumped down as Jax will have Ramsey man to man on him much of the game.

WRs

Chark Jr- Several good weeks strung together and Minshew really looks to Chark in both down field passes and in the redzone

Boyd- Need to get some part of what will be a shoot out in ATL and Boyd best fit my LU

Crowder-  Don't really like this WR as I may use Bell as my Flex, my pivot here would be Ridley to get the other side of the ATL shootout

TE

Kelce- May pivot to Ertz or Kittle depending on Mahomes' health

Flex

Bell- Having a hard time with this one, just doesn't feel right, may pivot to Henry or DJ

Def-Minn/Mia, still up in the air with this one

LU#2

QB

Lamar

RBS

Cook/Fournette

WRs

Chark/Boyd/Fits

TE

Hooper- Sticking with the TEs against Ariz

Flex

Ingram II-  Really like the game script here for Ingram and I feel we will see a lot of RPOs from Balt. in this game, only draw back for me is how many touches Gus will steal

DEF

Mia

Also wanted to get a piece of the NE def against a NYG's team that looks to be without any Offensive players so I put a LU is the $6 GPP

Wat/AJones/Henry/Hopkins/Ridley/Westbrook/Kittle/Conner/NE

Good Luck

 

[Galileo]

I am all over the map with WRs this week.   Early iterations of my lineups have had Theilin, Fuller, Chark, Sutton, Boyd...I currently have Kupp, Sutton, and Fitz in there.  I also keep looking at Landry, Sanu, Westbrook.  So many options.

 

[Cabby]

I'm liking Westbrook as well.  Considering him over Chark I'm Gpp's

 

[Megla]

I'm liking Westbrook as well.  Considering him over Chark I'm Gpp's

because of ownership %s?

 

[Cabby]

because of ownership %s?

Yes, and the fact that the Saints will put their best corner on Chark.  The saints have given up some big games to intermediate route runners like Westbrook.  I might be overthinking this.  I'll likely sprinkle a bit of Westbrook in my lineups but I'm high on Chark this week.

 

[Megla]

Cash LUs week 6

LU #1

QB

Lamar- Were several QBs I considered here, Murray, Watson/Ryan/Wilson/Dak(didn't really look at Mahomes because of the uncertain ankle).  With the rushing component Lamar settled in at #1

RBs

Cook-Safest floor for a RB in the main slate IMHO

Fournette- Sharp selection and has had 2 large weeks, also Jax will be looking to control TOP to protect a very suspect rush Def.  As a note, Ramsey was limited Wed at practice and if he plays MThom needs to be bumped down as Jax will have Ramsey man to man on him much of the game.

WRs

Chark Jr- Several good weeks strung together and Minshew really looks to Chark in both down field passes and in the redzone

Boyd- Need to get some part of what will be a shoot out in ATL and Boyd best fit my LU

Crowder-  Don't really like this WR as I may use Bell as my Flex, my pivot here would be Ridley to get the other side of the ATL shootout

TE

Kelce- May pivot to Ertz or Kittle depending on Mahomes' health

Flex

Bell- Having a hard time with this one, just doesn't feel right, may pivot to Henry or DJ

Def-Minn/Mia, still up in the air with this one

LU#2

QB

Lamar

RBS

Cook/Fournette

WRs

Chark/Boyd/Fits

TE

Hooper- Sticking with the TEs against Ariz

Flex

Ingram II-  Really like the game script here for Ingram and I feel we will see a lot of RPOs from Balt. in this game, only draw back for me is how many touches Gus will steal

DEF

Mia

Also wanted to get a piece of the NE def against a NYG's team that looks to be without any Offensive players so I put a LU is the $6 GPP

Wat/AJones/Henry/Hopkins/Ridley/Westbrook/Kittle/Conner/NE

Good Luck

Friday updates, pretty sure these are what I will go with in Cash

1. Ryan/Fournette/Carson/Kupp/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Hooper/Lindsey/Den

2. Lamar/Bell/Fournette/Chark/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Kelce/Chubb/Minn

If DJ cant go then I will have to take a look at Edmonds

If Gurley is a no go then I will have M Brown in pretty much all Cash 

 

[Megla]

Yes, and the fact that the Saints will put their best corner on Chark.  The saints have given up some big games to intermediate route runners like Westbrook.  I might be overthinking this.  I'll likely sprinkle a bit of Westbrook in my lineups but I'm high on Chark this week.

Lattimore?  Lets hope so, if they choose to go man on Chark he'll have another huge day

 

[Megla]

Anyone else looker more at TE Everett with the news that Cook looks like a no go?  SF is pretty strong on the outside but look susceptible in the middle of the field 

 

[karmarooster]

Friday updates, pretty sure these are what I will go with in Cash

1. Ryan/Fournette/Carson/Kupp/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Hooper/Lindsey/Den

2. Lamar/Bell/Fournette/Chark/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Kelce/Chubb/Minn

If DJ cant go then I will have to take a look at Edmonds

If Gurley is a no go then I will have M Brown in pretty much all Cash 

Care to share your thoughts on the super-cheap RBs this week?

- I like Edmonds the most, if DJ is ruled out before the game.  Ideally before the 1 pm games...

- AP could be a week-maker or destroyer.  I'm a bit nervous given that the game is in Miami and the Dolphins are coming off the bye... they aren't good, but this week may be their best defensive performance of the year (?).

- Brown has the toughest matchup against the 49ers.  I love plugging in a backup RB that becomes the starter due to injury in the flex, but Brown's matchup is concerning.  I probably wouldn't use him except in an emergency (e.g. passed on AP, wanted to use Edmonds but DJ is active).  

- Tend to favor the cheap RB on the other side of the ball more than Brown -- Coleman is 5k.  He's not my first choice, but could be a decent 4pm switch if (i) I don't use AP, (ii) DJ and Gurley are both active.

As a result, my thought process is like this: First, decide to use AP or not.  If not, plug in Edmonds and hope DJ is inactive.  If DJ plays, then it's decision time between Brown and Coleman.  

 

[Megla]

Care to share your thoughts on the super-cheap RBs this week?

- I like Edmonds the most, if DJ is ruled out before the game.  Ideally before the 1 pm games...

- AP could be a week-maker or destroyer.  I'm a bit nervous given that the game is in Miami and the Dolphins are coming off the bye... they aren't good, but this week may be their best defensive performance of the year (?).

- Brown has the toughest matchup against the 49ers.  I love plugging in a backup RB that becomes the starter due to injury in the flex, but Brown's matchup is concerning.  I probably wouldn't use him except in an emergency (e.g. passed on AP, wanted to use Edmonds but DJ is active).  

- Tend to favor the cheap RB on the other side of the ball more than Brown -- Coleman is 5k.  He's not my first choice, but could be a decent 4pm switch if (i) I don't use AP, (ii) DJ and Gurley are both active.

I rank them- assuming the starter are out

M Brown

Edmonds

Ito Smith

I disagree that Brown has the worst match up, the Rams have a offense that SF hasn't see in the first 4 games, even with Cook questionable.  Brown will get the lion's share of snaps and should get all the red zone snaps.

Edmonds- Simply because of volume but you are going to have to rely on Rec/Rec yards with him as Ariz is going to attack the ATL suspect defense through the air.

Same logic with Smith, that and I just don't trust Freeman at $6600

 

[karmarooster]

Tentative placeholder for the main slate:

Murray

Kamara / Ingram

Julio / Hollywood / Fitz

Hooper

Peterson or Chase Edmonds --> I don't love this as Washington is away, and Miami is coming off the bye.  OTOH, Edmonds is at 4pm so may not have confirmation that DJ is out until after 1pm kickoffs.  

Ravens

Revised Cash:

• Watson - safer floor than Murray
  
• Ingram / Bell - somewhat scared off of Kamara's mysterious injury, although it's probably nothing
  
• Julio / Fitz / Boyd - now that Hollywood is possible out, Boyd seems a better floor anyways.  Prefer him to Ridley and Fuller.
  
• Hooper
  
• Peterson - still concerned about this but hoping for 100+TD.
  
• Ravens
  

 

[Zyphros]

Anyone else looker more at TE Everett with the news that Cook looks like a no go?  SF is pretty strong on the outside but look susceptible in the middle of the field 

He's my GPP TE of choice this week.  Surprisingly he's 6k though, which makes him a bit expensive for what might be a dud.  My other GPP option TE's are Akins or Sprinkle and it saves 1400 or 1500, depending on who you go with.  

 

[jerseys finest]

He's my GPP TE of choice this week.  Surprisingly he's 6k though, which makes him a bit expensive for what might be a dud.  My other GPP option TE's are Akins or Sprinkle and it saves 1400 or 1500, depending on who you go with.  

sprinkle could be a decent play(and someone I'm looking at for salary relief) if Vernon doesn't play. I tried that with him last week in a tough matchup against NE in a gpp or two. didn't work out then, but Miami is a much different team. 

 

[jerseys finest]

Friday updates, pretty sure these are what I will go with in Cash

1. Ryan/Fournette/Carson/Kupp/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Hooper/Lindsey/Den

2. Lamar/Bell/Fournette/Chark/Boyd/Fitz(Kirk)/Kelce/Chubb/Minn

If DJ cant go then I will have to take a look at Edmonds

If Gurley is a no go then I will have M Brown in pretty much all Cash 

I'll have some shares of Brown with Gurley out but odds are they will be more on the gpp side of my lineup than the cash side. I think there is enough relief in the middle of the rbs, DEF and at WR that I don't need to drop down and take the risk for cash. 

I get the appeal, but the SF defense is for real, especially against the run (and they've looked it, albeit against inferior competition to the rams) But I also can't bank on them giving brown a full workload, I can only assume that Henderson will get a piece of the action(will have him in some .05-.25 gpps). If that is indeed the case, lower than expected touches against a better than advertised run defense, scares me off for cash. I'd rather have Murray (with no AK), Coleman or an also risky AP at that price range. 

 

[devouredbychaos]

Has anyone ever won a decent sized tournament here? Just curious. I'm starting to move off cash and play more GPPs and just wondering what's the best strategy. If I'm only playing 5 lineups, is it better to enter a $22 contest with 16,000 entries where you can max enter or a $25 single entry contest with only 4,000 entries? Obviously the $22 one has a better payout. Still trying to figure out what the best GPP games are to play though. Usually I enter 1 Milly Maker and a few other $5 or under GPPs, a few of them being single entry ones, and usually only end up making my money back lol. Don't mean to derail the conversation, just looking for some feedback. 

 

[jerseys finest]

Has anyone ever won a decent sized tournament here? Just curious. I'm starting to move off cash and play more GPPs and just wondering what's the best strategy. If I'm only playing 5 lineups, is it better to enter a $22 contest with 16,000 entries where you can max enter or a $25 single entry contest with only 4,000 entries? Obviously the $22 one has a better payout. Still trying to figure out what the best GPP games are to play though. Usually I enter 1 Milly Maker and a few other $5 or under GPPs, a few of them being single entry ones, and usually only end up making my money back lol. Don't mean to derail the conversation, just looking for some feedback. 

I haven't won first in one of the big tourneys but I've been top 10 a few times over the years and made some decent cash. It really depends on how you want to spend your money. I make sure I enter the $5 and under (also a $2 and a $1) single entry tourneys on the T-M slate and the Sunday main slate. I stay away from the bigger multi entry tournaments (I'll enter 5 .05 entries and 3 .25 entries each Sunday for the total of $1 and hope I get lucky). (total weekly GPP entries, $17, usually break even on them most weeks, sometimes turn a profit) The "sharks" are entering dozens to hundreds of lineups in these multi entry tournaments and I don't like being at a statistical disadvantage personally. Only way I enter the Sunday Milly is if I won some tickets for it from an overlay tournament I got into. 

I've actually gone more in a cash direction this year, focusing mostly on 5 and 10 dollar 100 man 50/50s each week. Its a slower grind, but I'm trying to basically pay for my kids Christmas this year from fan duel and thats the most successful way I've found to make consistent profit. I'm on the right track, but it could come crashing down at any point. Such is DFS. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Has anyone ever won a decent sized tournament here? Just curious. I'm starting to move off cash and play more GPPs and just wondering what's the best strategy. If I'm only playing 5 lineups, is it better to enter a $22 contest with 16,000 entries where you can max enter or a $25 single entry contest with only 4,000 entries? Obviously the $22 one has a better payout. Still trying to figure out what the best GPP games are to play though. Usually I enter 1 Milly Maker and a few other $5 or under GPPs, a few of them being single entry ones, and usually only end up making my money back lol. Don't mean to derail the conversation, just looking for some feedback. 

Every strategy article I have ever seen suggests doing as much single entry as you can.  That way you are going against the pros max entering 150 lineups.  They usually also suggest the smaller ones - ie on FD there $1SE gpps with 1100 entries or so.  1st place is $100. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Also, @devouredbychaos - here are things I like to try to remind myself every once in awhile -  If I am not max entering its even harder.  Also, while it's fun to chase the $200K payout, the huge field gpps are so top heavy.  Looking at the $9 Sunday Million - a 7th place finish is $5K.  To get that you would have to beat 363,749 other entries.  Now, there is a $10 single entry gpp with a 1st place of $5K.   To get that you have to beat 5,881 other entries.  Sure, you don't have a shot at the $200K payout in the SE gpp, but your odds of getting a 4 figure payday are a ton better.  

Similar to those $1 small entry gpps I mentioned.  $100 for 1st, and you have to beat 1175 entries.  To get $100 in the bigger SE contest, you need to beat 41.656 entries or 190,460 entries for $10 in the bigger ME $1 gpp.  

 

[devouredbychaos]

Thanks guys, appreciate the feedback. I've been at it for a few years now but honestly I've never really stuck to one strategy and feel like every week so far this season I kill my bankroll and just hope to get lucky and hit a big GPP. But maybe sticking to mostly cash and playing more of those smaller single entry GPPs is the way to go.

 

[snellman]

It really sucks that the 2 biggest question marks at RB are both late games with Johnson and Gurley.  If they scratch, their backups are pretty much chalk plays but with both being late games it limits the upside a bit.  It sounds more like Gurley won't go so that helps with Malcom Brown, but there is still a bunch of questions.  Going to have to be ready to do a late swap out because it could make a difference in both cash and GPPs.

 

[Galileo]

So, the way I have my roster currently configured for cash games leaves me with $8500 and one WR spot to fill.  That gives me a choice of any of the top WRs...Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, Kupp, Cooper, ...  Odd situation to be in but a difficult decision to make. 

 

[jerseys finest]

So, the way I have my roster currently configured for cash games leaves me with $8500 and one WR spot to fill.  That gives me a choice of any of the top WRs...Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, Kupp, Cooper, ...  Odd situation to be in but a difficult decision to make. 

Jones/Nuke I think gives you the highest ceiling.  Thomas/Kupp give you the highest floor. Cooper is the wildcard to me. 
 

my head says kupp, my heart says Jones and my gut says nuke. 
 

I see how that’s not very helpful
 

what’s the rest of the lineup? That may scream which one to use 

 

[Galileo]

Jones/Nuke I think gives you the highest ceiling.  Thomas/Kupp give you the highest floor. Cooper is the wildcard to me. 
 

my head says kupp, my heart says Jones and my gut says nuke. 
 

I see how that’s not very helpful
 

what’s the rest of the lineup? That may scream which one to use 

I have Thomas in right now.  I was using Hooper, so that drifted me away from Jones.  I had Kupp in there for a good portion of the week...

Jackson, Fournette, Carson, Bell, Thomas, Boyd, Fitz, Hooper, MIN

 

[karmarooster]

I see Boyd everywhere, but Marlon Humphrey should shadow including in the slot.  Bengals are a garbage pile.  Marlon choked out the Browns and ODB.  Confidence level in Boyd?

 

[KarmaPolice]

I am honestly not liking the Gurley/DJ news for cash since my instinct is to pay down at wr.  I am not sure what to do, honestly.  

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Anyone know where the explanations are for Dodds weekly value charts for DFS?  I saw it a couple of years ago and now I can't find it.

TIA.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Anyone know where the explanations are for Dodds weekly value charts for DFS?  I saw it a couple of years ago and now I can't find it.

TIA.

I remember a big part of the 'criteria' was being on a team with a Vegas total in the top 1/2 for the slate.   Another was h-val I think? 

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I remember a big part of the 'criteria' was being on a team with a Vegas total in the top 1/2 for the slate.   Another was h-val I think? 

yes - the ETP and H-Value is what I'm looking for.  I did find the original online book and it talks about the H-value ...so got that.

Still not sure about what the ETP is though. 

 

[jerseys finest]

I have Thomas in right now.  I was using Hooper, so that drifted me away from Jones.  I had Kupp in there for a good portion of the week...

Jackson, Fournette, Carson, Bell, Thomas, Boyd, Fitz, Hooper, MIN

For cash, I dont think you can go wrong with any of the options in that lineup.  Just follow your gut. I like kupp, especially if cooks doesn’t play. But I could make a case for each one of them 

 

[KarmaPolice]

yes - the ETP and H-Value is what I'm looking for.  I did find the original online book and it talks about the H-value ...so got that.

Still not sure about what the ETP is though. 

I found an old link, @Binky The Doormat

ETP = expected points from the Vegas 

Ratio = expected fantasy points divided by salary

Then the Criteria is players who meet upper 1/2 of ratio, ETP, and H-val

 

[smbkrypt24]

For cash, I dont think you can go wrong with any of the options in that lineup.  Just follow your gut. I like kupp, especially if cooks doesn’t play. But I could make a case for each one of them 

Cooks was full participant and no injury designation on final practice report.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I tried a different way of looking at stacks (at least for me) and after looking at stats, I tried to rank the best teammates to pair in a bigger stack/game stack for gpps - or at least ones to look at.  IMO the first week or so is weird in the NFL, so I just looked at the last 3 weeks worth of info.   what I was looking at was combos of players on a team that combined for 40%+ of the teams targets and a high % of the team % of air yards.  That way if they got into a shootout, there was a highly focused combo to look at.   What I wrote down:

Combined for 50%+ of target share (% of team air yards after the combo)

Cooper - Gallup (62)

Ertz - Jeffry (55)

Kamara - M.Thomas (47)

Fuller - Hopkins (54)

Landry - OBJ (62)

45%+:

Kupp - Woods (51)

Boyd - A.Tate (60)

D.Johnson - Kirk (37)

Cook - Thielen (42)

Chark - Westbrook (56)

Drake - P.Williams (40)

40% +:  [there were a lot more rb/wr combos here, like Zeke/Cooper and Chubb/Landry,  but I just listed the ones with better air yard totals]

Williams - D.Parker (76)

Thielen - Diggs (69)

Cooks - Kupp (55)

Sutton - Sanders (68)

Dissly - Lockett (41)

Fitz - Kirk (49)

M.Brown - M.Andrews (50)

Glancing over that list gave me some good ideas for gpps.  Looks like there would be 3 of that top tier that would be quite low owned this week.  I like the combos with the higher air yard % for FD since you more want big chunks and splash plays here.   This has me thinking about a Dallas stack, Minn/Philly game stack and Clev/Seattle game stack for my cheap gpps.  

 

[snellman]

Gurley being out opens up a ton of cap space.  I will probably fade brown in GPPs, because I don't see there being enough value to justify him even with his low salary. However, I will probably be 100% in on him in cash games.  It really opens up a lot of possibilities at other positions and you have to figure that most of the field will be on him as well so if he doesn't do well, it won't suck me down too far.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Yeesh, so looking like Kamara will play but might see limited workload, and same with D.Johnson?  I liked M.Brown the least of the backups, so I am leaning towards skipping him which I am not looking forward.  I just honestly don't love the top salary WRs this week, so I feel like I am paying up just to pay up if I use Brown, and getting away from my list a bit.  - will see what it looks like with him in though.

Also with M.Brown out, I think it might drop Jackson's ownership a little (does it knock him for cash too?), and it makes me want to try a stack with him/Andrews and either Boykin or Snead.  

 

[Megla]

So, the way I have my roster currently configured for cash games leaves me with $8500 and one WR spot to fill.  That gives me a choice of any of the top WRs...Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, Kupp, Cooper, ...  Odd situation to be in but a difficult decision to make. 

Keep an eye on what Ramsey's status is, if he plays I would down grade MThomas

 

[jerseys finest]

Yeesh, so looking like Kamara will play but might see limited workload, and same with D.Johnson?  I liked M.Brown the least of the backups, so I am leaning towards skipping him which I am not looking forward.  I just honestly don't love the top salary WRs this week, so I feel like I am paying up just to pay up if I use Brown, and getting away from my list a bit.  - will see what it looks like with him in though.

Also with M.Brown out, I think it might drop Jackson's ownership a little (does it knock him for cash too?), and it makes me want to try a stack with him/Andrews and either Boykin or Snead.  

still confidently running Jackson in cash. The dip in ownership only excites me. Cinci is the #2 worst defense (I believe) against running QBs. I think Jackson has a field day regardless of brown playing. I put Snead into a cheap gpp or two, but I'm not bumping the WR's a ton. I think this is a ground game(I also like Ingram a lot this week in cash). 200 and 2tds through the air, but possibly 100 and 1 on the ground. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

still confidently running Jackson in cash. The dip in ownership only excites me. Cinci is the #2 worst defense (I believe) against running QBs. I think Jackson has a field day regardless of brown playing. I put Snead into a cheap gpp or two, but I'm not bumping the WR's a ton. I think this is a ground game(I also like Ingram a lot this week in cash). 200 and 2tds through the air, but possibly 100 and 1 on the ground. 

I wish I knew how to quit him - I am also using him in cash on FD and actually risking stacking him with Andrews.  With the Kittle injury it was between Andrews and Hooper, and I figured that Andrews gets an even bigger bump in targets now.  

 

[Megla]

Ramsey out, Herndon is terrible, load up on MThomas