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Fanduel Week 9 (1 Viewer)

NixonMask

Footballguy
People overall seemed to appreciate I posted this last week so I am going to post my weekly research again.  If nothing else I seem to have the Oakland Raiders wide receivers figured out.  For now I have just posted the placeholder template.  I'll go back in and update it on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Its an evolving process so it'll look a little different this week.  In addition to showing the defensive splits against the pass on the right and the left, the first number in parenthesis after the team name is the overall passer rating allowed.  I am also going to post where each defense has allowed passing TDs this year.  If a number is in parenthesis that is how many TDs they have allowed in the red zone.

Odds: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Public Bets: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Atlanta (100.4) [Left 29 (115.1)] / [Right 31 (91)] at Tampa Bay (101.1) [Left 21 (87.2)] / [Right 13 (89)]

Atlanta Falcons
QB Passer Rating on the road: 112.9
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 98.1

Total passing TDs allowed: 19
Short left: 5 (5)
Short middle: 3 (3)
Short right: 8 (7)
Deep left: 3
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 0

Locations where Atlanta allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Right: 52

Atlanta Falcons WRs that match up well or poorly against the Tampa Bay defense:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are particularly weak short over the middle and everywhere deep, but especially over the middle.  Julio Jones has seen the most targets short over the middle, about twice as many as Mohamed Sanu and the Tight Ends combined.  All three see about 25% of their total targets short over the middle.  The wide receivers that see the largest percentage of their targets deep are Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel


Tampa Bay
QB Passer Rating at home: 81
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 97.7

Total passing TDs allowed: 14
Short left: 0
Short middle: 6 (4)
Short right: 3 (3)
Deep left: 3 (1)
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 1

Locations where Tampa Bay allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 138
Deep Middle: 138

Tampa Bay WRs that match up well or poorly against the Atlanta defense:
The Atlanta Falcons allow a passer rating of between 97 and 100 everywhere except deep right, where they allow a passer rating of 52.  16 of their 19 passing TDs allowed have been short, with a fairly even distribution. Russell Shepard sees 77% of his targets on the left side, with most of them being short left.  He has only seen 9 targets the last 3 games though, all 9 of which came in the last two games.  Adam Humphries sees 82% of his targets short left and short right.  He has only seen 9 targets the last 3 games though.  Cameron Brate sees 46% of his targets short right, which is where Falcons allowed the most passing TDs.  He has only seen 11 targets the last three games though.  Mike Evans has a fairly even target distribution.  He is very good on the left side and short over the middle.  He is very bad on the right side and deep over the middle.  He is the only player on the team that reliably sees any deep targets.  He has seen 36 targets the last 3 games.


Jacksonville (102.2) [Left 11 (88.4)] / [Right 22 (125.6)] at Kansas City (87) [Left 15 (95.4)] / [Right 7 (81)]

Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Passer Rating on the road: 91.2
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 126.9

Total passing TDs allowed: 11
Short left: 3 (3)
Short middle: 1 (1)
Short right: 3 (2)
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 3

Locations where Jacksonville allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:

Short Middle: 75
Deep Left: 61
Deep Middle: 135

Jacksonville Jaguars WRs that match up well or poorly against the Kansas City defense:
The Kansas City defense is strong against the pass on the right side and average on the left side.  They are particularly bad against the pass deep over the middle.  They have a fairly even TD distribution allowed this year. Allen Hurns sees targets with a fairly even target distribution, but sees slightly more short right.  He has the majority of his success on the right side and deep left..  He has more than twice as many targets deep over the middle than the next player on the team.  Allen Robinson has a fairly even target distribution.  He does see 43% of his targets on the left side though as opposed to 33% on the left.  Over the last 3 weeks he has seen 48% of his targets on the left side.  The only place he has had any real success this year is short right.  Marquis Lee sees 44% of his targets short left.  He has had the most success on the team there.  He is fairly bad everywhere else.  Julius Thomas sees most of his targets short over the middle.

Kansas City Chiefs
QB Passer Rating at home: 104
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 69.4

Total passing TDs allowed: 13
Short left: 3 (3)
Short middle: 3 (3)
Short right: 3 (3)
Deep left: 2
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 1

Locations where Kansas City allows a passer rating allowed that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Middle: 156
Deep Right: 54

Kansas City Chiefs WRs that match up well or poorly against the Jacksonville defense:
The strength of the Jacksonville defense is short over the middle and deep left.  They are weakest on the right and deep over the middle.  Jeremy Maclin sees 42% of his targets on the right side as opposed to 27% on the left side.  He is best short over the middle and on the right side.  He is still below average on the right side though. Tyrek Hill sees a fairly even target distribution short and deep on the left side.  3 of his 4 TDs caught this year have been on the left side.  Travis Kelce sees a fairly even target distribution, with almost all of his targets being with 15 yards of the line of scrimmage.
 

Detroit (115.2) [Left 18 (115)] / [Right 30 (116)] at Minnesota (63.4) [Left 3 (61.7)] / [Right 1 (55.8)]

Detroit Lions
QB Passer Rating on the road: 100.4
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 118.3

Total passing TDs allowed: 19
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 5 (5)
Short right: 8 (8)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 3 (3)

Locations where Detroit allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Middle: 71

Detroit Lions WRs that match up well or poorly against the Minnesota defense:
Minnesota allows a passer rating of 31 or below everywhere deep.  They have the bet defense deep against the pass in the NFL by a large margin.  They surrender a combined passer rating of 10.2 deep.  The Cardinals are the next best team at 44.5.  The one place they are fairly weak against the pass is over the middle within 15 yards.  The only players that consistently see passes short over the middle are Theo Riddick and Aquan Boldin.  Marvin Jones is the only player to consistently see targets deep.

Minnesota Vikings
QB Passer Rating at home: 114.6
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 63

Total passing TDs allowed: 6
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 2 (2)
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 0

Locations where Minnesota allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 116

Minnesota Vikings WRs that match up well or poorly against the Detroit defense:
The weakness of the Detroit defense is on the right side within 15 yards and deep on the left side.  The only player to consistently see targets deep on the left side is Adam Thielen, but still only a little over 1 a game on average.  The Lions have allowed 8 TDs this year on the right side within 15 yards.  Stefon Diggs sees 42% of his targets on the right side within 15 yards.

 

Philadelphia (81.9) [Left 5 (87.1)] / [Right 10 (74.8)] at New York Giants (81.6) [Left 24 (91)] / [Right 11 (72.4)]

Philadelphia Eagles
QB Passer Rating on the road: 93.1
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 95.7

Total passing TDs allowed: 9
Short left: 3 (3)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 1 (1)
Deep left: 2 (1)
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 0

Locations where Philadelphia allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
None

Philadelphia Eagles WRs that match up well or poorly against the New York defense:
The New York Giants are weakest against the pass on the left side and over the middle beyond 15 yards.  No player on the Giants consistently sees deep targets anywhere except Odell Beckham deep on the left side. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 5 of their 8 targets on the left side.  50% of Odell Beckhams targets are on the left side compared to only 23% on the right side.

New York Giants
QB Passer Rating at home: 97.8
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 88.9

Total passing TDs allowed: 7
Short left: 1
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 1 (1)
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 2 (1)
Deep right: 1

Locations where New York allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 51
Deep Middle: 57

New York Giants WRs that match up well or poorly against the Philadelphia defense:
The Philadelphia Eagles are pretty good against the pass everywhere except short left and short middle, where they are average.  Dorial Green Beckham has seen the most targets on the left side within 15 yards this year, with 15.  10 of those targets have come after their week 4 bye.  Jordan Matthews has seen 49% of his targets on the right side this year compared to 35% on the left side.



Dallas (99.4) [Left 17 (100.7)] / [Right 17 (96)] at Cleveland (110.7) [Left 28 (132)] / [Right 19 (92.6)]

Dallas Cowboys
QB Passer Rating on the road: 113.8
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 89.8

Total passing TDs allowed: 11
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 5 (5)
Short right: 3 (3)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 0

Locations where Dallas allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Right: 54

Dallas Cowboys WRs that match up well or poorly against the Cleveland defense:
The Cleveland Browns are above average against the pass on the right side, average against the pass short on the left side and over the middle, and the worst in the league deep left and over the middle.  Cole Beasley and Jason Witten see the most passes on the team on the right side.  Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are the receivers that are targets most frequently on the left side and over the middle beyond 15 yards.

Cleveland Browns
QB Passer Rating at home: 75.7
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 87.4
 

Total passing TDs allowed: 17
Short left: 4 (3)
Short middle: 1 (1)
Short right: 4 (4)
Deep left: 4 (1)
Deep middle: 2
Deep right: 2

Locations where Cleveland allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 148
Deep Middle: 149
Deep Right: 74

Cleveland Browns WRs that match up well or poorly against the Dallas defense:
Almost half of the TDs that Dallas has allowed this year have been over the middle within 15 yards.  Tyrell Pryor, Gary Barnidge, and Duke Johnson are the only players to be constantly targeted short over the middle.  Barnidge is the most targeted, followed by Pryor and then Johnson.  Dallas allows a passer rating of 125.1 to TEs this season.  Dallas is the 4th ranked defense this year against pass catching backs.

 

New York Jets (108.8) [Left 19 (86)] / [Right 32 (116.9)] at Miami (96.3) [Left 6 (87.2)] / [Right 6 (78.7)]

New York Jets
QB Passer Rating on the road: 91.1
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 99.7

Total passing TDs allowed: 15
Short left: 1 (1)
Short middle: 4 (4)
Short right: 5 (5)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 3

Locations where New York allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 47

New York Jets WRs that match up well or poorly against the Miami defense:
The Miami defense is strong against the pass on the right side.  They are very weak against the pass over the middle.  Quincy Enunwa is has seen almost twice as many targets as the next player over the middle.  Both Bilaal Powell and Brandon Marshall have seen about half as many short over the middle as Enunwa, and Marshall has seen 1 more target deep.  Miami is the #5 ranked defense against pass catching backs.

Miami Dolphins
QB Passer Rating at home: 93.1
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 87.8

Total passing TDs allowed: 10
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 4 (4)
Short right: 2 (1)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1 (1)
Deep right:0

Locations where Miami allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 129
Deep Middle: 138

Miami Dolphins WRs that match up well or poorly against the New York defense:
The Jets have allowed more than 50% of their TDs on the right side this year.  Jarvis Landry has seen the most targets short on the right side, followed by DeVantae Parker.  The Jets are the #30 ranked defense against pass catching backs this year.  Ajayi has only seen about one target a game so far this year, but they are coming out of their bye.  In his season year of college he caught 50 passes, he is capable if they decide to target him.



Pittsburgh (93.2) [Left 13 (94.9)] / [Right 20 (90.5)] at Baltimore (97.7) [Left 1 (82.4)] / [Right 12 (108)]

Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Passer Rating on the road: 96.6
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 81.8

Total passing TDs allowed: 8
Short left: 4 (3)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 0
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 1

Locations where Pittsburgh allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 54
Deep Middle: 147
Deep Right: 138

Pittsburgh Steelers WRs that match up well or poorly against the Baltimore defense:
The Baltimore defense is vulnerable short over the middle, short on the right side, and deep right.  Jesse James has seen the most targets short over the middle with 16, followed by AB with 11 and Bell with 9 this year.  Antonio Brown and the Pittsburgh backs have both seen 23 targets short on the right side.  Sammy Coates has seen the most targets deep right with 11, that accounts for 48% of the teams targets there. 


Baltimore Ravens
QB Passer Rating at home: 91.3
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 99.7

Passing TDs allowed:
Short left: 1 (1)
Short middle: 4 (2)
Short right: 4 (4)
Deep left: 2
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 2

Locations where Baltimore allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 69
Deep Middle: 31

Baltimore Ravens WRs that match up well or poorly against the Pittsburgh defense:
The Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4 of their 8 TDs this year on the left side within 15 yards.  They are the most vulnerable deep over the middle and deep on the right side.  Dennis Pitta has seen more than twice as many targets short on the left side as anyone on the team with 22 on the year.  Only 1 of those targets have come in the redzone.  Both Breshad Perriman and Mike Wallace have seen about an equal number of targets deep over the middle and deep on the right side.  Kamar Aiken sees almost as many.  None of the three see many though, about 1.5 a game on average.  Unless one or two are out its unpredictable who will get the targets.



New Orleans (95.4) [Left 27 (122.6)] / [Right 5 (67.6)] at San Francisco (97) [Left 7 (89.5)] / [Right 25 (107.2)]

New Orleans Saints
QB Passer Rating on the road: 95.4
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 105.8

Total passing TDs allowed: 9
Short left: 4 (3)
Short middle: 1 (1)
Short right: 0
Deep left: 2
Deep middle: 2 (2)
Deep right: 0

Locations where New Orleans allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 133
Deep Middle: 138
Deep Right: 60

New Orleans Saints WRs that match up well or poorly against the San Francisco defense:
The San Francisco defense is strong against the pass over the middle and on the right side within 15 yards.  They are average on the left side.  They are terrible deep over the middle and deep on the right side.  They have allowed 6 TDs on targets beyond 15 yards on the right side.  The New Orleans WRs lineup everywhere.  Willie Snead sees 52% of his targets short over the middle and short on the right side.  Brandin Cooks has seen twice as many targets deep on the right side as the next WR on the Saints.

San Francisco 49ers
QB Passer Rating at home: 72.7
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 85.7

Total passing TDs allowed: 15
Short left: 4 (4)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 1 (1)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1 (1)
Deep right: 6 (3)

Locations where San Francisco allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 51
Short Right: 76
Deep Middle: 158
Deep Right: 144

San Francisco 49ers WRs that match up well or poorly against the New Orleans defense:
The Saints are very good against the pass on the right side.  Jeremy Kerley and Torrey Smith are the only players to reliably receive targets on the right side.  Torrey Smith has only seen 1 target on the left side all year.  Jeremy Kerley has also seen 17 targets short on the left side and Quinton Patton has seen 18.  Torrey Smith has seen the most targets over the middle beyond 15 yards, but still less than 1 per game.



Carolina (101.9) [Left 30 (115.3)] / [Right 16 (82.3)] at Los Angeles (94.9) [Left 32 (111)] / [Right 9 (83.7)]

Carolina Panthers
QB Passer Rating on the road: 84.9
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 118.2

Total passing TDs allowed: 16
Short left: 5 (3)
Short middle: 2 (1)
Short right: 2 (2)
Deep left: 3
Deep middle: 2 (1)
Deep right: 2

Locations where Carolina allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 138
Deep Middle: 140

Carolina Panthers WRs that match up well or poorly against the Los Angeles defense:
The strength of the Los Angeles defense against the pass is deep over the middle and on the right side.  7 of the 10 passing TDs they have allowed have been on the left side within 15 yards..    Corey Brown has seen 22 targets on the right side within 15 yards.  That accounts for 67% of his targets.THey are weakest against the pass on the left side.  Kelvin Benjamin sees the most targets on the left side followed by Greg Olson.  Greg Olson has seen 50% of the targets in the red zone within 15 yards with 4, no other player has seen more than 1.

Los Angeles Rams
QB Passer Rating at home: 87.6
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 94.4

Total passing TDs allowed: 11
Short left: 7 (6)
Short middle: 1 (1)
Short right: 3 (3)
Deep left:
Deep middle:
Deep right:

Locations where Los Angeles allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Middle: 22 (Yes these numbers are correct)
Deep Right: 12(Yes these numbers are correct)

Los Angeles Rams WRs that match up well or poorly against the Carolina defense:
Carolina is pretty good against the pass on the right side.  They are weak against the pass on the left side and over the middle within 15 yards.  They are terrible against the pass beyond 15 yards on the left side and over the middle.  8 of the 15 passing TDs they have allowed have been on the right side.  Kenny Britt sees 52% of his targets on the right side compared to 38% on the left side.  Tavon Austin sees the most targets on the left side within 15 yards.  Kenny Britt sees the most targets on the left side beyond 15 yards.



Indianapolis (101.8) [Left 22 (93.2)] / [Right 28 (99)] at Green Bay (104.3) [Left 2 (87.4)] / [Right 18 (116.4)]

Indianapolis Colts
QB Passer Rating on the road: 93.5
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 88.5

Total passing TDs allowed: 14
Short left: 3 (3)
Short middle: 5 (4)
Short right: 4 (3)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 0

Locations where Indianapolis allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 126
Deep Middle: 129
Deep Right: 66

Indianapolis Colts WRs that match up well or poorly against the Green Bay defense:
The Green Bay defense is very weak on over the middle and on the right side beyond 15 yards.  They are very good against the pass on the left side beyond 15 yards.  8 of the 13 passing TDs they have allowed this year have been on the right side.  TY Hilton has seen 39% of the teams targets over the middle beyond 15 yards.  Donte Moncrief in his single game saw 9% of the teams targets on the year there.  TY Hilton sees 43% of his targets on the right side compared to 26% on the left side.

Green Bay
QB Passer Rating at home: 98.2
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 90.7

Total passing TDs allowed: 13
Short left: 1 (1)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 4 (4)
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 2
Deep right: 4 (1)

Locations where Green Bay allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 40
Deep Middle: 139
Deep Right: 146

Green Bay Packers WRs that match up well or poorly against the Indianapolis defense:
12 of the 14 TDs the Colts have allowed this year have been on targets within 15 yards.  Devante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson all see alot of targets short.  Jordy Nelson sees proportionally more targets deep than the others.  Almost all of Randall Cobbs targets have been short.  All of Ty Montgomerys targets have been short.  Randall Cobb has seen the most targets over the middle within 15 yards, which is where the Colts have allowed the most TDs.


Tennessee (87.7) [Left 12 (77.9)] / [Right 21 (77)] at San Diego (89.2) [Left 16 (72.4)] / [Right 23 (91.2)]

Tennessee Titans
QB Passer Rating on the road: 103.8
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 74.9

Total passing TDs allowed: 11
Short left: 0
Short middle: 5 (5)
Short right: 4 (4)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 0

Locations where Tennessee allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 122
Deep Middle: 132
Right Middle: 34

Tennessee Titans WRs that match up well or poorly against the San Diego defense:
The San Diego defense is weakest against the pass over the middle.  DeMarco Murray and Rishard Matthews have seen the most targets short over the middle.  Kendall Wright only sees 5% of his targets over the middle this year.  The San Diego Chargers allow a passer rating of 106.2 to RBs this year.

San Diego Chargers
QB Passer Rating at home: 101.4
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 79.3

Total passing TDs allowed: 11
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 3 (2)
Short right: 2 (2)
Deep left: 2 (1)
Deep middle: 1 (1)
Deep right: 1

Locations where San Diego allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 110

San Diego Chargers WRs that match up well or poorly against the Tennessee defense:
Tennessee is strong agains the pass on the right side and weakest over the middle.  9 of the 11 passing TDs they have allowed have been over the middle and on the right side within 15 yards.  Antonio Gates has seen 17 targets over the middle this year and Hunter Henry has seen 16.  Travis Benjamin has seen the most targets on the right side within 15 yards.  Travis Benjamin has seen the most targets on the left side within 15 yards as well, but sees an equal percentage on the right and the left side.  Tyrell Williams has seen 15 targets on the left side within 15 yards as opposed to 10 on the right.  Tyrell Williams has also seen the most targets by a WR over the middle with 15.  The Tennessee defense has allowed a passer rating of 107.7 to RBs this year.



Denver (62.8) [Left 8 (82.3)] / [Right 3 (49.7)] at Oakland (97.6) [Left 9 (94)] / [Right 14 (89)]

Denver Broncos
QB Passer Rating on the road: 106.3
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 69.1

Total passing TDs allowed: 6
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 2 (2)
Short right: 1 (1)
Deep left: 0
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 0

Locations where Denver allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
None

Denver Broncos WRs that match up well or poorly against the Oakland Raiders defense:
The Oakland Raiders are most vulnerable over the middle within 15 yards.  11 of the 15 TDs they have allowed this year have been within 15 yards on the left side and over the middle.  Emmanuel Sanders and Demarius Thomas have a similar target distribution.  Demarius Thomas does see slightly more passes short over the middle.  Almost all of Jordan Norwoods targets this year have been on the left side or over the middle within 15 yards, but he only has 2 red zone targets this year.  Oakland allows a passer rating of 105.8 on passes thrown to the RB this year.

As I mentioned somewhere else in this thread, on the road, Trevor Simien has thrown for a QBR higher than the the team he is facing has allowed on the season in every game.  He has thrown for a passer rating of 75.3 at home this year.  He has thrown for a passer rating of 106.3 on the road this year.

Oakland Raiders
QB Passer Rating at home: 105.3
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 126.1

Total passing TDs allowed: 15
Short left: 4 (4)
Short middle: 7 (5)
Short right: 1 (1)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 1
Deep right: 1 (1)

Locations where Oakland allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Short Middle: 128

Oakland Raiders WRs that match up well or poorly against the Denver defense:
The Denver defense is strong everywhere, but have allowed 4 of their 6 TDs short on the left side and over the middle.  Michael Crabtree sees the majority of his targets on the right side.  Amari Cooper sees the majority of his passes on the left side.  Michael Crabtree is targeted almost exclusively on the right side on the red zone.  Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts have both seen 5 targets on the left side in the red zone.



Buffalo (89.3) [Left 4 (71.8)] / [Right 26 (87.5)] at Seattle (82.3) [Left 26 (89.9)] / [Right 2 (75.1)]

Buffalo Bills
QB Passer Rating on the road: 98.3
QB Passer Rating allowed on the road: 88.2

Total passing TDs allowed: 8
Short left: 0
Short middle: 1 (1)
Short right: 2 (2)
Deep left: 1
Deep middle: 2
Deep right: 2

Locations where Buffalo allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 51
Deep Middle: 147

Buffalo Bills WRs that match up well or poorly against the Seattle defense:
All 5 of the TDs that Seattle have allowed this year have been on the left side.  Charles Clay, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin have all seen roughly an equal number of targets on the left side and on the right side.  Woods has has seen the most on the left side, followed by Clay and Goodwin.  Very helpful stuff.

Seattle Seahawks
QB Passer Rating at home: 96.9
QB Passer Rating allowed at home: 83.6

Total passing TDs allowed: 5
Short left: 2 (2)
Short middle: 0
Short right: 0
Deep left: 3 (1)
Deep middle: 0
Deep right: 0

Locations where Seattle allows a passer rating that is 25% greater or less than their overall average:
Deep Left: 108
Deep Middle: 47
Deep Right: 48

Seattle Seahawks WRs that match up well or poorly against the Buffalo defense:
The Buffalo Bills defense is weakest against the pass over the middle and deep on the right side.  7 of their 8 TDs allowed have been on the right side or over the middle.  Jimmy Graham has seen more than twice as many targets as the next player over the middle within 15 yards, and also has seen the most targets deep over the middle.  Doug Baldwin sees the most targets on the right side.  Jermaine Kearse sees the majority of his targets on the left side.





Pro Football Focus WR/CB matchups with an advantage of .40 or greater:
Julio Jones +.62 Vernon Hargreaves
Kelvin Benjamin +.61 Troy Hill
Tyreek Hill +.53 Davon House
Jarvis Landry +.51 Darrelle Revis
Odell Beckham +.50 Nolan Carroll


WRs facing the 20 worst PFF graded CBs:
Kelvin Benjamin - Troy Hill (38.7)
Tyreek Hill - Davon House (39.9)
Phillip Dorsett - Demetri Goodson (42.1)
Torrey Smith - Delvin Breaux (42.8)
Julio Jones - Vernon Hargreaves (45.3)
Odell Beckham - Nolan Carroll (46.8)
Quinton Patton - Ken Crawley (46.8)
Tavon Austin - Robert McClain (47.3)
Ted Ginn - E.J. Gaines (47.6)
Allen Hurns - Steven Nelson (48)
Jordan Norwood - D.J. Hayden (48.6)
Allen Robinson - Phillip Gaines (49.6)
Jarvis Landry - Darrelle Revis (49.6)
Mohamed Sanu - Jude Adjei-Barimah  (49.7)
DeVantae Adams - Patrick Robinson (50.6)
Cordarelle Patterson - Quandre Diggs (50.7)
DeVante Parker - Buster Skrine (50.8)
Jermaine Kearse - Stephon Gilmore (53.2)
Mike Wallace - Artie Burns (56)
Amari Cooper - Bradley Roby (57.4)

Partial list of WRs with 40 times significantly faster than the CB expected to cover them:
Julio Jones (4.34) - Vernon Hargreaves III (4.5)
Antonio Brown (4.18) - Jimmy Smith (4.42)
Donte Moncrief (4.4) - LaDarius Gunter (4.64)
Mike Wallace (4.33) - Artie Burns (4.5)
Cordarrelle Patterson (4.37) - Quandre Diggs (4.5)
Ted Ginn  (4.28) - E.J. Gaines (4.51)
Kenny Stills (4.38) - Marcus Williams (4.57)
Tavon Austin (4.25) - Robert McClain (4.51)


WRs significantly taller than the CB expected to cover them:
Kelvin Benjamin 6'5" - Troy Hill 5'11"
Julio Jones 6'3" - Vernon Hargreaves 5'10"
Terrelle Pryor 6'4" - Anthony Brown 5'11"
Allen Hurns 6'3" - Steven Nelson 5'11"
DeVantae Parker 6'3" - Buster Skrine 5'11"
Cordarelle Patterson 6'2" - Quandry Diggs 5'9"
Dorial Green Beckham 6'5" - Janoris Jenkins 5'10"
Mike Evans 6'5" - Desmond Trufant 6'0"


Players the target maps like:
Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Mike Evans, Marquis Lee, Allen Hurns (GPP), Anquan Boldin, Stefan Diggs, Odell Beckham, Dorial Green Beckham, Dez Bryant (Terrance Williams if Dez doesnt play), Tyrell Pryor, Gary Barnidge, Quincy Enunwa, Jarvis Landry, Jay Ajayi, Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, Sammy Coates, Brandin Cooks, Jeremy Kerley, Jimmy Graham, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olson, TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, DeVante Adams, Ty Mongomery, Randall Cobb, Rishard Matthews, DeMarco Murray, Melvin Gordon, San Diego TEs.

Players the target maps do not like:
Tyreek Hill, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Jason Witten, Willie Snead, Torrey Smith, Jermaine Kearse, Michael Crabtree

 
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KarmaPolice

Footballguy
WOW.  Thanks for doing this!

At first glance this week's schedule made me throw up in my mouth a little, so all the info that we can gather and put together is a huge bonus.

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
Yes thanks for all the work and info you provide. For raider's WR is it as simple as Cooper vs zone defenses and Crabtree vs man? That's how I've been playing them and has mostly worked out. Don't think I'll be playing either vs Denver tho.

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
Im not sure, to be honest Im not sure what defensive scheme each team runs.  Coopers and Crabtrees target maps don't overlap much though. Crabtree sees 50% of his targets short right, if the opposing RCB isnt good he is going to get 10+ targets and catch most of them. 

I am just looking at yesterdays Oakland game and its actually pretty funny.  Crabtree had a pretty good day, he had 8 catches.  But, for the first time all year most came on the left side.  And by a large margin, he saw more than twice as many targets on the left side yesterday than at any other point this season.  I assume thats an anomaly since hes been so predictable all year, but it certainly is interesting.

 

Megla

Footballguy
Im not sure, to be honest Im not sure what defensive scheme each team runs.  Coopers and Crabtrees target maps don't overlap much though. Crabtree sees 50% of his targets short right, if the opposing RCB isnt good he is going to get 10+ targets and catch most of them. 

I am just looking at yesterdays Oakland game and its actually pretty funny.  Crabtree had a pretty good day, he had 8 catches.  But, for the first time all year most came on the left side.  And by a large margin, he saw more than twice as many targets on the left side yesterday than at any other point this season.  I assume thats an anomaly since hes been so predictable all year, but it certainly is interesting.
Pretty sure Coopers history with Hargreaves III was the reason for that anomaly, the Raiders really wanted to put Cooper up against Hargreaves.

 

reel_smooth

Footballguy
Early cash LU:

QB/ Bradford [yeah, I know - it's Bradford ....... but he's at home against Detroit; if he can't hit cash value against them, at $7400, he never will. I think he hits for 17-18 FD points without much problem] 

RB/ D. Murray, T. West [Both RB's going up against DEF's that have been very generous to RB's and Baltimore, w/ West, seems to be more run-oriented of late w/ the O-coordinator change. Murray, is, well, Murray; all he does is hit cash value+ every week. I'm sure he'll have a down game sooner or later, but, even on the road, it's still SD - not gonna happen this week unless he gets hurt.]

WR/ A. Brown,D. Bryant, Sanders [BAL's DEF is very generous to WR's and Brown is coming off a BYE, giving him time to get more in tune w/ Landry. Plus, it's Antonio! Bryant seems to be healthy, torched the Eagles & will be facing the Browns - 'nuf said. Sanders faces the Raiders who average a hair over 1 TD per game to WR's, but, are also giving up over 200 YPG to WR's.] 

TE/ Rudolph - Lions DEF = worst against the TE

K/ Sturgis [Eagles]

DEF/ KC [home against Jacksonville]

Naturally, this is subject to further tweaking throughout the week. But I like the start. 

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Early cash LU:

QB/ Bradford [yeah, I know - it's Bradford ....... but he's at home against Detroit; if he can't hit cash value against them, at $7400, he never will. I think he hits for 17-18 FD points without much problem] 

RB/ D. Murray, T. West [Both RB's going up against DEF's that have been very generous to RB's and Baltimore, w/ West, seems to be more run-oriented of late w/ the O-coordinator change. Murray, is, well, Murray; all he does is hit cash value+ every week. I'm sure he'll have a down game sooner or later, but, even on the road, it's still SD - not gonna happen this week unless he gets hurt.]

WR/ A. Brown,D. Bryant, Sanders [BAL's DEF is very generous to WR's and Brown is coming off a BYE, giving him time to get more in tune w/ Landry. Plus, it's Antonio! Bryant seems to be healthy, torched the Eagles & will be facing the Browns - 'nuf said. Sanders faces the Raiders who average a hair over 1 TD per game to WR's, but, are also giving up over 200 YPG to WR's.] 

TE/ Rudolph - Lions DEF = worst against the TE

K/ Sturgis [Eagles]

DEF/ KC [home against Jacksonville]

Naturally, this is subject to further tweaking throughout the week. But I like the start. 
I think I did:

Rodgers

Elliot/Forte

Cobb/Wallace/Hurns

Rudolph

Lambo

Seattle

Something like that.  No way I run with those Wrs, but was toying with how to get Rodgers and Zeke in a LU. 

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
So I think I am going to be firing a bunch of Blake Bortles GPPs this week.  The Jaguars have unsurprisingly had a really unhealthy offense this season.  Theyve been passing almost 70% of the time, that may work in the MAC, but in the NFL it makes your offense really predictable.  This is Hackett's 2nd OC job.  The first was for Buffalo in 2013 and 2014.  In 2013 they ran more rushing plays than anyone else in the NFL.  EJ Manuel was the QB, so he ran his offense through CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.  The next year he had a huge upgrade at QB with Kyle Orton and that was Sammy Watkins rookie year.  That year they went from the run heaviest team in the NFL to a team that threw almost 60% of the time.  They were also 9-7 that year, so the increase in passing was not because they were playing from behind.
In 2012 he was the offensive coordinator at Syracuse.  They had roughly a 55/45 run/pass split, but still managed to produce the 12th most passing yards in the NCAA.

He seems to be good at getting the most out of the weapons available to him.  Going on the road to Kansas City is not ideal, but Kansas City has not been able to generate much pressure this year and have been middle of the road against the run.  I think he looks to establish the run early, which opens things up for Bortles.  It worked last year with Jim Bob Cooter, and earlier this year in Baltimore when they fired Trestman, and again earlier this year the OC shake up managed to fix a hopeless Buffalo too.  And its not like we need to figure out who to stack him with either.  The Chiefs slot corner is Patrick Robinson, arguably the worst starting corner in the NFL, who just got roasted by Tyrek Hill for 5/98/1.  Allen Hurns gets that matchup this week.

 

DukeBroadway

Footballguy
He seems to be good at getting the most out of the weapons available to him.  Going on the road to Kansas City is not ideal, but Kansas City has not been able to generate much pressure this year and have been middle of the road against the run.  I think he looks to establish the run early, which opens things up for Bortles.  It worked last year with Jim Bob Cooter, and earlier this year in Baltimore when they fired Trestman, and again earlier this year the OC shake up managed to fix a hopeless Buffalo too.  And its not like we need to figure out who to stack him with either.  The Chiefs slot corner is Patrick Robinson, arguably the worst starting corner in the NFL, who just got roasted by Tyrek Hill for 5/98/1.  Allen Hurns gets that matchup this week.
Sorry Nixon, but that intel is wrong.  I think you are confusing the Colts with the Chiefs.  Tyreek "The Freak" Hill plays for KC. 

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
Youre right.  Thats what I get for doing too many things at the same time.  I thought brought the page up, went and did something else, came back, thought KC slot corner, and they played IND last week who was Patrick Robinson.  Not great.

The good news is KCs slot corner is terrible too.  PFF actually rates Steven Nelson worse than Robinson.  The Chiefs RCB is even worse, and thats mostly Allen Robinson.  I guess I'll just have to run some stacks with one each, and some with both.

 

DukeBroadway

Footballguy
Drew Brees is a different animal than Bortles.  KC is getting more pressure on the QB, at least last game.  I would be on KC D, cant to Bortles, esp at KC.  I am biased though.

 
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NixonMask

Footballguy
It's definitely outside the box.  But there's a good track record of teams switching OC coordinators mid season and having a good game the next week.  If anything it's alot harder for the other team to gameplan.

 

DukeBroadway

Footballguy
It's definitely outside the box.  But there's a good track record of teams switching OC coordinators mid season and having a good game the next week.  If anything it's alot harder for the other team to gameplan.
True, but on the road plus at Arrowhead doesnt sound promising.  Anything can happen, I mean the Bears beat the Vikes tonight.

Speaking of Bortles, PFT has an article about him being the King of Garbage Time.  Here is a breakdown by quarter of his yards/tds:

First quarter: 1,598 yards, 4 touchdowns
Second quarter: 2,356 yards, 15 touchdowns
Third quarter: 1,912 yards, 13 touchdowns
Fourth quarter: 3,364 yards 26 touchdowns

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
I agree, going into Arrowhead is about the worst situation for a QB who's alleged to be a "basketcase" to have to play.  The garbage time knock isnt new though.  That team has been bad for as long as he's been there.  He's certainly at the very least partially responsible.  But, if we're painting a picture of how he goes into KC and produces enough to pay off a GPP I think the pieces are there.

 

freeannyong

Footballguy
Early cash LU:

QB/ Bradford [yeah, I know - it's Bradford ....... but he's at home against Detroit; if he can't hit cash value against them, at $7400, he never will. I think he hits for 17-18 FD points without much problem] 

RB/ D. Murray, T. West [Both RB's going up against DEF's that have been very generous to RB's and Baltimore, w/ West, seems to be more run-oriented of late w/ the O-coordinator change. Murray, is, well, Murray; all he does is hit cash value+ every week. I'm sure he'll have a down game sooner or later, but, even on the road, it's still SD - not gonna happen this week unless he gets hurt.]

WR/ A. Brown,D. Bryant, Sanders [BAL's DEF is very generous to WR's and Brown is coming off a BYE, giving him time to get more in tune w/ Landry. Plus, it's Antonio! Bryant seems to be healthy, torched the Eagles & will be facing the Browns - 'nuf said. Sanders faces the Raiders who average a hair over 1 TD per game to WR's, but, are also giving up over 200 YPG to WR's.] 

TE/ Rudolph - Lions DEF = worst against the TE

K/ Sturgis [Eagles]

DEF/ KC [home against Jacksonville]

Naturally, this is subject to further tweaking throughout the week. But I like the start. 
Osweiller just hit 185 1 td 1 int against the Lions. Bradford getting to 18 points is no slam dunk. And no way I'm stacking Vikings in cash. I think Rudolph is the easy play and find somewhere else at qb. 

I know Zeke is super expensive but with the number of carries he will get against the Browns JV defense, gonna be hard to fade him. 

Moncreif at 6,100 is as close to a lock for me right now as possible. He's their best red zone weapon, Hilton banged up, and had a 50 yard td called back last week. 

Michael Thomas is another interesting cheap option, it has been quite profitable attacking the 49ers D and this is your cheapest exposure. 

 
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Megla

Footballguy
Youre right.  Thats what I get for doing too many things at the same time.  I thought brought the page up, went and did something else, came back, thought KC slot corner, and they played IND last week who was Patrick Robinson.  Not great.

The good news is KCs slot corner is terrible too.  PFF actually rates Steven Nelson worse than Robinson.  The Chiefs RCB is even worse, and thats mostly Allen Robinson.  I guess I'll just have to run some stacks with one each, and some with both.
Hurnsey doesn't play in the slot much, that is usually either Lee or Green

 

Megla

Footballguy
NixonMask said:
So I think I am going to be firing a bunch of Blake Bortles GPPs this week.  The Jaguars have unsurprisingly had a really unhealthy offense this season.  Theyve been passing almost 70% of the time, that may work in the MAC, but in the NFL it makes your offense really predictable.  This is Hackett's 2nd OC job.  The first was for Buffalo in 2013 and 2014.  In 2013 they ran more rushing plays than anyone else in the NFL.  EJ Manuel was the QB, so he ran his offense through CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.  The next year he had a huge upgrade at QB with Kyle Orton and that was Sammy Watkins rookie year.  That year they went from the run heaviest team in the NFL to a team that threw almost 60% of the time.  They were also 9-7 that year, so the increase in passing was not because they were playing from behind.
In 2012 he was the offensive coordinator at Syracuse.  They had roughly a 55/45 run/pass split, but still managed to produce the 12th most passing yards in the NCAA.

He seems to be good at getting the most out of the weapons available to him.  Going on the road to Kansas City is not ideal, but Kansas City has not been able to generate much pressure this year and have been middle of the road against the run.  I think he looks to establish the run early, which opens things up for Bortles.  It worked last year with Jim Bob Cooter, and earlier this year in Baltimore when they fired Trestman, and again earlier this year the OC shake up managed to fix a hopeless Buffalo too.  And its not like we need to figure out who to stack him with either.  The Chiefs slot corner is Patrick Robinson, arguably the worst starting corner in the NFL, who just got roasted by Tyrek Hill for 5/98/1.  Allen Hurns gets that matchup this week.
This team can't run, no matter the OC, if you are hanging your hat on that then I fear you will be very disappointed.  The only way the Jags are relevant FF wise is if KC can mount a large lead and the typical garbage stats come into play in the second half.

As I stated earlier with R Miller III out this team can't stop the run, KC, even with its RB injuries, will be able to run the ball.  This game looks to be a low scoring affair, 21-10 or so.

 

James Daulton

Footballguy
If Ben plays, I'll be heavily invested in him and his receivers.  The Ravens D has been smoke in mirrors this year.  They flat out suck.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
reel_smooth got me thinking about cheaper Rbs for the week.  I am just not sure about that T.West call.  Granted, one game was against NYJ, but he has only hit value once in the last 3 games.  I believe they throw as much as anybody in the league, were already willing to get Lorenzo in there on 3rd down, and the coach said something about getting Dixon in the mix more.  They can be run on, just not 100% on the situation. 

Others I was looking at:

J.Stewart.  Same price as West at 6400, but has been getting an average of 20 touches a game, and the way Newton has been getting drilled, they are willing to give the RBs some TDs now when they are near the goal line! He even saw a couple targets in the pass game this week as well.  LA Def is above average vs. the run, but AZ is better and that didn't seem to matter.  Plus, isn't this Goff's first game?

T.Montgomery.  6500 Yep, we are back here.  He was dealing with illness related to sickle cell, not injured, and is looking at this week to return to action.  GB already tossed aside K.Davis, so if he is healthy he should see a lot of touches.  Indy is pretty bad vs. the run and also averages letting 50yds a game to the Rbs.  Add to that GB is at home with the highest implied total for the week. 

T.Hightower. 6100  Not sure what to do here, but this guy was a league winner for people last year.  Ingram got benched after a fumble, and they didn't give him a ton of action anyway.  Enter Hightower and his big workload last week.  Oh, they face SF this week who is by far the worst D vs the run in the league.  Unless they come out and say they are giving him a big workload, I am not sure if he is cash worthy, but should be in gpp LUs. 

I guess we also keep our eye on the situations in TB and KC as week.  L.Murray at 6000 might be a gpp play too.  Been getting 20 touches/targets since he's been back, and Denv can be attacked with the RB. 

 

Megla

Footballguy
Maybe the D he is going against is scaring people off? 
I guess, the Jets are ranked #1 against the run but they really have only faced  4 quality  RBs, McCoy, DJ, Bell and Ware and each got 50+ on limited carries, only 2 got 20+ carries (DJ and Ware) and they both got 75+.

The NYJ pass defense is terrible so teams don't have as many rush attempts which IMHO is inflating the NYJ rush rankings.

Miami is a run first team, Ajayi will get 20+ carries

 
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Megla

Footballguy
The more I look at the weeks slate of games the more I am leaning towards putting most of my cash LUs in the Thur-Mon DBLPs and 50/50s and then playing mostly GPPs elsewhere.

Questions I have

Who is going to run the ball for TB

For KC

Will Big Ben Play and is that good or bad for Bell

Is it Ingram or Hightower in NO

I could see several Main GPPs consisting of all late game players

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
The more I look at the weeks slate of games the more I am leaning towards putting most of my cash LUs in the Thur-Mon DBLPs and 50/50s and then playing mostly GPPs elsewhere.

Questions I have

Who is going to run the ball for TB

For KC

Will Big Ben Play and is that good or bad for Bell

Is it Ingram or Hightower in NO

I could see several Main GPPs consisting of all late game players
Just wondering what your reasons are as you look things over.  Thought about the same thing to maybe get Ryan/WInston in the LU again or Seattle D, but I also assumed everybody else would be doing similar things (and I am not 100% on the players on Thurs night, but all you would need is to not start Julio or Evans and they go off setting a bad start for the weekend). 

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
Megla said:
Hurnsey doesn't play in the slot much, that is usually either Lee or Green
PFF has Hurns running out of the slot 64% of the time

This team can't run, no matter the OC, if you are hanging your hat on that then I fear you will be very disappointed.  The only way the Jags are relevant FF wise is if KC can mount a large lead and the typical garbage stats come into play in the second half.

As I stated earlier with R Miller III out this team can't stop the run, KC, even with its RB injuries, will be able to run the ball.  This game looks to be a low scoring affair, 21-10 or so.
Im not saying play him in cash.  All Im saying is that an OC change can magically fix even the most hopeless situation.  I know I was laughing at Buffalo before they changed their OC, the next week they stomped Arizona. Last year Detroit was a joke, Stafford was a below average quarterback, and then *poof* hes good again.  And Terrance West could have won you a million dollars earlier this year if you played him after his OC was fired for not utilizing him right.

 

Megla

Footballguy
Just wondering what your reasons are as you look things over.  Thought about the same thing to maybe get Ryan/WInston in the LU again or Seattle D, but I also assumed everybody else would be doing similar things (and I am not 100% on the players on Thurs night, but all you would need is to not start Julio or Evans and they go off setting a bad start for the weekend). 
For cash I'm looking at a select few RBs

Murray/Elliot/Freeman and maybe Montgomery or Hyde but Harris and the red shirt are scaring me.

So I need Freeman

Also like the safety of MBryant here at the K

Also I have noticed that the cash line for these have been lower than the main slate DBLP and 50/50s.

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
Im done updating the team matchups, but still need to go back in and do the individual players.  A few things I noticed.  KC has a really strong defensive passer rating allowed at home 69.4. That is absolutely an argument against Blake Bortles.  If we take out Fitzpatrick's 6 INT game the QBR allowed drops to 106.  I doubt I am going to drop this Bortles thing, so fair warning to anyone foolish enough to listen to me, I was on Bobby Rainey 3 weeks ago.  Im a little torn, on the one hand Bortles can easily be as bad as Fitzpatrick.  On the otherhand, non-fitzpatrick QBs have done well in Arrowhead this year.

The other thing that really stood out was the Denver Oakland game.  Siemiens QBR at home this year is 75.3.  His QBR on the road is 106.3.  Oakland has allowed a QBR of 126.1 at home this year.  For reference he has faced Carolina, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Houston, and San Diego at home.  He has faced Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and San Diego on the road.  His QBR on the road is higher than the average allowed by each of those defenses.  HIs QBR at home is lower than what each of those teams have allowed combined this year, in some cases by about 30 points. 

Im already considering Blake Bortles for GPPs this week so why not, maybe its a Trevor Siemian week?

 

DukeBroadway

Footballguy
Just say no to Kaep.   KC is favored by 9.5.  Bortles has a far greater chance vs what Rainey did.   He touches the ball every play and vegas says they will be behind.   

 
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Tennessee_ATO

Footballguy
I road Bortles pretty heavily last year. A couple guys made fun of me for it, but he won me some money. A team that can't run + has a putrid defense can turn a blah QB into fantasy gold, Jerry, gold I'm telling ya. Garbage time TDs count the same as 1st quarter TDs. Plus he's good for a few points running. But you have to plan on starting in a -1 or -2 point hole b/c he's going to throw a pick at some Inopportune time. 

 

Tennessee_ATO

Footballguy
Absolutely no mention of Booker this week? Is $1400 in salary all it takes to go from "lock of the year" to no love at all despite facing an objectively much worse rush defense?

 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
Random Shots...(sunday slate player)

- NixonMask's "side analysis" is probably the best information I have found to date scouring the net for DFS tips.  Or maybe I just had a good week randomly.  Anyway, thanks.

- As a former resident of Jacksonville, it is very worrisome that the Jags are failing to run the ball after the owner's "pep talk".  I fear the locker room has been lost.

- Having said that, I'll probably include 10% exposure to Hurns in my lineups.

- I see zeke and gordon as being the high ownership chalk. 

- Intuitively, I think Payton gives Ingram a chance to escape the dog house and put up monster numbers.  Or Hightower maintains.  10% each, maybe more.

- Sprinkle in some Sproles, Booker, Crowell, Stewart.

- WR is a mess for sunday slate.  No one stands out.  I'll have some Jordy, Hurns, Wallace, Landry, Diggs, Odell.

- TE is similar, although I may go back to the well with Kelce in 1/3 of lineups.

- Vikings, Panthers as chalk plus some Chiefs and Bolts.

Watching ware, hilton, demarco, alex smith for updates.

 

Tennessee_ATO

Footballguy
Yeah, I can't find any reason not to build around Elliott this week, at least at 1st blush. Browns are so bad, and we have pretty good data to suggest that Dallas will feed its #1 RB even in a blowout. 

 

NixonMask

Footballguy
- NixonMask's "side analysis" is probably the best information I have found to date scouring the net for DFS tips.  Or maybe I just had a good week randomly.  Anyway, thanks.
I appreciate it.  Ill keep doing it for now.  It's way too early to know how reliable it will be long term, but the early returns are pretty promising.  I just have to figure out exactly what info I should be looking at and what I should be ignoring.  And seriously, if anyone has any thoughts on what I should or shouldnt be doing on it Id appreciate the input.

I was glancing at the RB pass catching stats.  Montgomery, Murray, Ajayi, Gordon look like the pass catching backs to target.  Im still convinced Baltimore is bad against pass catching backs, which is Bell, but Id only play him if Ben is back and/or Suggs is out.

The teams to avoid pass catching backs are Jacksonville and Miami which are Ware/West and Forte.  Theyre both terrible against the rush though.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Not overly scientific, but the last couple weeks I have been starting off with something to help focus my attention on less and less players at a position.  Figured I would share some ramblings, do with it what you will.  No, this doesn't mean I think you should play them all in cash or at all, just something to think about.  

For Qbs, I write down all that average 35 attempts a game.  No need to waste much time (I started this trying to focus on cash guys, but gpp options pop up too).  Then I just look at the Ds they go against and rank them 1-32 (1 = bad, so good matchup for O guys) in pass yds/attempt allowed, pass yds/game, and FD points/game.  Then I average those numbers, and rank the QBs on those. 

The mostly no surprise top 5 this week:

1.  Rodgers

T2.  Ryan and Winston

4.  Flacco

5.  Luck

Did a similar thing with RBs with Rbs that average 20 touches a game looking at the Ds yd/attempt allowed, yd/game, and FD pts/game.  Top ones here:

1.  Elliot

2. Booker

3.  Hyde (will he be healthy?)

4.  Freeman

5.  Ware/West

6.  Forte

7.  D.Murray

Wrs I did with ones getting 8+ targets a game, this is more about team the WR is on and up to us to decide who is getting the ball:

T1:  Julio/Sanu and Landry

3. Dez

4.  D.Thomas/Sanders

5.  J.Kerley

6.  Evans

7.  T.Y./Moncrief

8.  Cobb/Adams/Nelson/Mongomery

.

TEs  I looked at ones targeted 6+ times a game:

1.  Rudolph

2.  Barnidge

3.  Doyle 

Again, not sure how useful this is, but it did help me narrow things down a little bit or start looking in different directions the last couple weeks.  Obviously I still look at implied points, home/away, etc.. but nothing else this could be a tie breaker for me if I am deciding between a couple guys that are right in the same price range. 

 

AquaBliss

Footballguy
It's an obvious pricing error by FanDuel. He's about $4,500 cheaper than he should be.
Wow I've never seen this before.  Interesting strategy to sacrifice one of the WR positions and get high value guys everywhere else.

So I wonder what they would do if someone in a big GPP won this way?  Probably not worth the risk.

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
Early cash lineup. Don't like the matchups for the high priced WRs so dropping down to some guys I think are in a great spot and have value.

rogers

elliott  bell

moncreif matthews sanders

rudolph

santos

eagles

 

reel_smooth

Footballguy
reel_smooth got me thinking about cheaper Rbs for the week.  I am just not sure about that T.West call.  Granted, one game was against NYJ, but he has only hit value once in the last 3 games.  I believe they throw as much as anybody in the league, were already willing to get Lorenzo in there on 3rd down, and the coach said something about getting Dixon in the mix more.  They can be run on, just not 100% on the situation. 

Others I was looking at:

J.Stewart.  Same price as West at 6400, but has been getting an average of 20 touches a game, and the way Newton has been getting drilled, they are willing to give the RBs some TDs now when they are near the goal line! He even saw a couple targets in the pass game this week as well.  LA Def is above average vs. the run, but AZ is better and that didn't seem to matter.  Plus, isn't this Goff's first game?

T.Montgomery.  6500 Yep, we are back here.  He was dealing with illness related to sickle cell, not injured, and is looking at this week to return to action.  GB already tossed aside K.Davis, so if he is healthy he should see a lot of touches.  Indy is pretty bad vs. the run and also averages letting 50yds a game to the Rbs.  Add to that GB is at home with the highest implied total for the week. 

T.Hightower. 6100  Not sure what to do here, but this guy was a league winner for people last year.  Ingram got benched after a fumble, and they didn't give him a ton of action anyway.  Enter Hightower and his big workload last week.  Oh, they face SF this week who is by far the worst D vs the run in the league.  Unless they come out and say they are giving him a big workload, I am not sure if he is cash worthy, but should be in gpp LUs. 

I guess we also keep our eye on the situations in TB and KC as week.  L.Murray at 6000 might be a gpp play too.  Been getting 20 touches/targets since he's been back, and Denv can be attacked with the RB. 
Definitely some decent RB options to consider here. Will take a look a little later on.

 

snogger

Footballguy
Decided I liked the "Top Dog" RB Match-ups this week... Also figured it would be nice to fit Rodgers in.. Came up with these two lineups..

QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Elliott, WR's - Cooks, Moncrief, Brian Quick(Only $4500), TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D - Vikings

QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Gordan, WR's - Dez Bryant, D. Thomas, Quick, TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D - Vikings

:popcorn:  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Decided I liked the "Top Dog" RB Match-ups this week... Also figured it would be nice to fit Rodgers in.. Came up with these two lineups..

QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Elliott, WR's - Cooks, Moncrief, Brian Quick(Only $4500), TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D - Vikings

QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Gordan, WR's - Dez Bryant, D. Thomas, Quick, TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D - Vikings

:popcorn:  
I like that 2nd one a bit more.   I do wonder if it would be a decent idea to "downgrade" to Luck in that same game and use that to upgrade that WR3 somehow - try to get to a M.Thomas or something?

I know as soon as I do, they will score a ton, but I am starting to sour on that Minny D (noticing your avatar, I assume you are not).  Is this a home/road thing?  They have been a dud 2 weeks in a row vs offenses that should scare nobody in Philly and Chicago. 

 
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