FanGraphs player trade value list (1 Viewer)

[the moops]

Link

his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball.

This has been done over and over by Simmons in basketball. Fangraphs did this in July of this year. Obviously some players have changed their order from what they have done in the 2nd half of the year. Here is their top 25.Longoria

Heyward

Strasburg

Hanley

Pedroia

Zimmerman

Lester

Votto

Johnson

Utley

J Upton

Braun

Cano

Rasmus

Wright

Jiminez

Youk

Wainwright

McCutchen

Greinke

C Santana

Pujols

Felix

Lincecum

Bruce

 

[boubucarow]

The young shortstops Andrus and Castro might be close to cracking this list.

 

[Eephus]

Posey and Price up

Rasmus down

Are they talking about Josh Johnson?

 

[Dr. Bronner]

The young shortstops Andrus and Castro might be close to cracking this list.

Andrus was not great this year. He might be good in the future, but everyone else on that list has already arrived.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Posey and Price up

Rasmus down

Are they talking about Josh Johnson?

These are surprising omissions even back in July.

 

[the moops]

Are they talking about Josh Johnson?

Yes

 

[the moops]

Posey and Price up

Price was 29, Posey was 31.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Not sure I'm on board with Bruce ranking so high.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Not sure I'm on board with Bruce ranking so high.

I know it's easy to consider him a bit of a disappointment based on his hype, but Bruce had a VERY good year for a 23 year old.25 homers, 23 doubles, 80 runs scored, 75 RBI and a .281/.353/.493 line, which resulted in a .848 OPS and a 127 OPS+Fangraphs also shows him with a UZR in right of 20.2, the second highest of any outfielder in baseballGiven his age and his production and improvements to date, I think Bruce is one of the best young players in the game

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

 

[Eephus]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

 

[the moops]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

Yep.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

Yep.

Bargain

 

[Eephus]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

Yep.

Bargain

27 year old Cabrera is better than 31 year olds Youkilis and Utley in pure offensive terms. I suppose positional flexibility is a factor but it's not like either Youk or Utley are wizards with glove. $20M>$15M is a consideration but Cabrera has been more consistent and less injury prone that the other two.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Not sure I'm on board with Bruce ranking so high.

I know it's easy to consider him a bit of a disappointment based on his hype, but Bruce had a VERY good year for a 23 year old.25 homers, 23 doubles, 80 runs scored, 75 RBI and a .281/.353/.493 line, which resulted in a .848 OPS and a 127 OPS+Fangraphs also shows him with a UZR in right of 20.2, the second highest of any outfielder in baseballGiven his age and his production and improvements to date, I think Bruce is one of the best young players in the game

Fair enough. I can think of a few guys I'd bump him down for but it's not that awful.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Unless I missed it, CarGo wasn't even in the Top 50. I imagine he'd be a little higher after his second half.

 

[the moops]

Unless I missed it, CarGo wasn't even in the Top 50. I imagine he'd be a little higher after his second half.

Yea. This is what was said about him in July, when this was done.

Carlos Gonzalez, CF, Colorado – There aren’t many guys who can play a legit center field and hit the baseball a long way, but Gonzalez brings both skills to the table. Unfortunately, the rest of the game isn’t quite as refined, and his approach at the plate is a problem. His aggressiveness can and will be used against him, and when pitchers adjust, he’ll need to as well.

 

[the moops]

Miguel Cabrera is not in the top 25 why?

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

Yep.

Bargain

27 year old Cabrera is better than 31 year olds Youkilis and Utley in pure offensive terms. I suppose positional flexibility is a factor but it's not like either Youk or Utley are wizards with glove. $20M>$15M is a consideration but Cabrera has been more consistent and less injury prone that the other two.

Youkilis is signed for 9 mill, 12 mill, 12 mill, and a team option for 13 mill over the next 4 years. That is a hell of a bargain for a guy who has put up a higher OPS for 2 of the past 3 years, compared to Cabrera.Utley plays a different position, obviously, so it is a little more difficult to determine value. But I think most teams would take the best 2nd baseman over the best 1st baseman, if both were available. I'm not saying either of those guys are the best at their position, especially not Cabrera, but looking at their defense and their offense and position played and contract, Utley is a clear better value, IMO.

 

[the moops]

it's not like either Youk or Utley are wizards with glove

This is a terrible false statement.Utley won the fielding bible award this past year, came in 3rd in 09, 2nd in 08. He had the highest +/- from 2006-2008 of any 2nd baseman. Had a UZR of 10.3, 11.2, 18.4, 12.6, the last 4 years. There is an argument that he is the best defensive 2nd baseman in all of baseball.Youkilis has lost it a bit at first these last couple years, but he is still a top 10 defensive 1B. Perhaps a top 5. UZR is terrible for 1B, but his +/- numbers have always been good.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

2011: $20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M

Yep.

Bargain

27 year old Cabrera is better than 31 year olds Youkilis and Utley in pure offensive terms. I suppose positional flexibility is a factor but it's not like either Youk or Utley are wizards with glove. $20M>$15M is a consideration but Cabrera has been more consistent and less injury prone that the other two.

Youkilis is signed for 9 mill, 12 mill, 12 mill, and a team option for 13 mill over the next 4 years. That is a hell of a bargain for a guy who has put up a higher OPS for 2 of the past 3 years, compared to Cabrera.

Cabrera also has 111 HRs and 356 RBIs over the same period to Youk's 75 and 271. Cabrera had two times the IBB this year than Youk has had in his career. Maybe Youk is a bargain, but he is not in the same class/tier as Cabrera and the Red Sox would ship Youk to Mexico if they had any chance at getting Cabrera.

 

[Eephus]

it's not like either Youk or Utley are wizards with glove

This is a terrible false statement.Utley won the fielding bible award this past year, came in 3rd in 09, 2nd in 08. He had the highest +/- from 2006-2008 of any 2nd baseman. Had a UZR of 10.3, 11.2, 18.4, 12.6, the last 4 years. There is an argument that he is the best defensive 2nd baseman in all of baseball.Youkilis has lost it a bit at first these last couple years, but he is still a top 10 defensive 1B. Perhaps a top 5. UZR is terrible for 1B, but his +/- numbers have always been good.

Utley's fielding stats from five years ago don't mean much in this context. He'll be 32 by opening day, has had injury issues the past two years and has been in a slight decline at the bat and in the field. I question whether he'll still be 2B by the end of his contract. If he goes to 3B or OF, he loses positional value. He's still an excellent player, especially at $15M, but I think putting him in the top 25 of trade value is focusing too much on the near term.Re: Youk. What's the difference between a top ten defensive 1B and a league average one? I think the comparative lack of scarcity at the position makes it hard to justify top 25 value for him.

 

[the moops]

Cabrera also has 111 HRs and 356 RBIs over the same period to Youk's 75 and 271. Cabrera had two times the IBB this year than Youk has had in his career. Maybe Youk is a bargain, but he is not in the same class/tier as Cabrera and the Red Sox would ship Youk to Mexico if they had any chance at getting Cabrera.

I would indeed trade Youkilis for Cabrera, especially if I had the Sox payroll advantage. But most teams would certainly think twice about taking Cabrera and his contract over Youkilis and his contract. I would guess that at least half the teams in MLB would choose Youk.And the HR and RBI total certainly favor Cabrera immensely. But we all know there is more to value than just those numbers.

 

[the moops]

Utley's fielding stats from five years ago don't mean much in this context.

How about his fielding stats from this year? He had the highest +/- of any 2B.And I'm not sure about his decline. He had a down year, for sure. But last year was his second best in terms of OPS+.

 

[Eephus]

Cabrera also has 111 HRs and 356 RBIs over the same period to Youk's 75 and 271. Cabrera had two times the IBB this year than Youk has had in his career. Maybe Youk is a bargain, but he is not in the same class/tier as Cabrera and the Red Sox would ship Youk to Mexico if they had any chance at getting Cabrera.

I would indeed trade Youkilis for Cabrera, especially if I had the Sox payroll advantage. But most teams would certainly think twice about taking Cabrera and his contract over Youkilis and his contract. I would guess that at least half the teams in MLB would choose Youk.And the HR and RBI total certainly favor Cabrera immensely. But we all know there is more to value than just those numbers.

I'll let Doctor Detroit make the case for Cabrera. I just have a problem seeing a lot of value in relatively old, expensive players like Youk and Utley. They're both good players and fit well with their respective big budget, win now clubs. But you're comparing a guy making $15M against young players who have pre-arbitration seasons remaining. I viewed the article as a long-term valuation exercise. Age and cost matter a lot. If this was a keeper fantasy league, Utley would be the equivalent of a $35 player, while Heyward and Posey would be $1 guys. If it was a first year dynasty draft, I suspect Utley would be a first rounder but doubt Youkilis would.

 

[the moops]

If it was a first year dynasty draft, I suspect Utley would be a first rounder but doubt Youkilis would.

I can live with this.But, Youkilis is #17 on the list. It's not as if he is top 10 or anything. Looking at the list of players behind him, I would take a couple of pitchers, for sure (Lincecum, Felix, Price), and Posey and Tulo, for sure, but I dont think it is a stretch to view Youkilis and his very reasonable contract to be the 17th best value in all of baseball.

 

[Bogart]

Interesting not a single Ranger. I wouldn't expect to see many, but why not Hamilton? Yes there are risks, but it seems like the rewards and upside would be worth it.

EDIT: Nevermind, Hamilton, Andrus and Kinsler are all in the second half of the top 50. About where they belong. Feliz will make the list next time.

 

[Eephus]

Interesting not a single Ranger. I wouldn't expect to see many, but why not Hamilton? Yes there are risks, but it seems like the rewards and upside would be worth it.EDIT: Nevermind, Hamilton, Andrus and Kinsler are all in the second half of the top 50. About where they belong. Feliz will make the list next time.

Cruz is just entering his first arbitration year, so he'll still be a relatively low cost option for the next three years.At the risk of aggravating the moops again, I'd rather have Kinsler who's four years younger and $8M/yr. cheaper than Utley.

 

[the moops]

At the risk of aggravating the moops again, I'd rather have Kinsler who's four years younger and $8M/yr. cheaper than Utley.

I could go for that. However, isn't Kinsler a fairly mediocre, to bad, defensive second baseman? His whole injury thing is slightly overblown, but he is only averaging about 120 games played per year.

 

[guru_007]

Kinsler is overrated

That list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

 

[the moops]

Kinsler is overratedThat list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

I think the discussion works best if you imagine that there is a salary cap. Without it, it is way too difficult to deal with the disparities in payrolls.So, if each team had the same amount to spend (say 88 million, which is the average team payroll). Would you prefer Lincecum and his 13 million salary in 2011 and his subsequent arbitration years, or Carlos Sanatana and his league minimum salary and his subsequent arb years. Same goes for Felix and his 10 mill, 18.5 mill, 19.5 mill and 20 mill salary for the next 4 years.And yes, it is just a discussion piece. Something to talk about.

 

[Eephus]

Kinsler is overratedThat list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

I think the discussion works best if you imagine that there is a salary cap. Without it, it is way too difficult to deal with the disparities in payrolls.So, if each team had the same amount to spend (say 88 million, which is the average team payroll). Would you prefer Lincecum and his 13 million salary in 2011 and his subsequent arbitration years, or Carlos Sanatana and his league minimum salary and his subsequent arb years. Same goes for Felix and his 10 mill, 18.5 mill, 19.5 mill and 20 mill salary for the next 4 years.And yes, it is just a discussion piece. Something to talk about.

The article has provoked some interesting discussion but you're right, the salary implications make less sense in a baseball context than they would in a capped league like the NBA. The impact of a single player on a basketball team is greater than in baseball. The Fangraphs guy also isn't as clever a writer as Bill Simmons (and even less clever than Simmons thinks he is).

 

[the moops]

What would everyone's top 5 look like?

Strasburg, Longoria, Votto, Zimmerman, and Hanley?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Kinsler is overratedThat list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

I think the discussion works best if you imagine that there is a salary cap. Without it, it is way too difficult to deal with the disparities in payrolls.So, if each team had the same amount to spend (say 88 million, which is the average team payroll). Would you prefer Lincecum and his 13 million salary in 2011 and his subsequent arbitration years, or Carlos Sanatana and his league minimum salary and his subsequent arb years. Same goes for Felix and his 10 mill, 18.5 mill, 19.5 mill and 20 mill salary for the next 4 years.And yes, it is just a discussion piece. Something to talk about.

It's not even so much that you need to imagine that there's an imaginary salary cap, it's more that you need to understand that owners by and large don't spend their own money on players, so there is a real, live cap on salaries for each team depending on their revenue stream. So it's not really a hypothetical exercise. If you own a team, who would you most like to have rostered under their current salary arrangement?

 

[the moops]

Kinsler is overratedThat list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

I think the discussion works best if you imagine that there is a salary cap. Without it, it is way too difficult to deal with the disparities in payrolls.So, if each team had the same amount to spend (say 88 million, which is the average team payroll). Would you prefer Lincecum and his 13 million salary in 2011 and his subsequent arbitration years, or Carlos Sanatana and his league minimum salary and his subsequent arb years. Same goes for Felix and his 10 mill, 18.5 mill, 19.5 mill and 20 mill salary for the next 4 years.And yes, it is just a discussion piece. Something to talk about.

It's not even so much that you need to imagine that there's an imaginary salary cap, it's more that you need to understand that owners by and large don't spend their own money on players, so there is a real, live cap on salaries for each team depending on their revenue stream. So it's not really a hypothetical exercise. If you own a team, who would you most like to have rostered under their current salary arrangement?

Am I NY/Boston, or Pittsburgh/San Diego?

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Not one Oakland player on this list. I understand our bats not being there, but thought Cahill might at least sneak into the last few spots.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Kinsler is overratedThat list is ummm, a discussion piece, but I can't see there's much value to it. I mean, Carlos Santana is going to fetch more in return for Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez, is that what this is trying to tell me?

I think the discussion works best if you imagine that there is a salary cap. Without it, it is way too difficult to deal with the disparities in payrolls.So, if each team had the same amount to spend (say 88 million, which is the average team payroll). Would you prefer Lincecum and his 13 million salary in 2011 and his subsequent arbitration years, or Carlos Sanatana and his league minimum salary and his subsequent arb years. Same goes for Felix and his 10 mill, 18.5 mill, 19.5 mill and 20 mill salary for the next 4 years.And yes, it is just a discussion piece. Something to talk about.

It's not even so much that you need to imagine that there's an imaginary salary cap, it's more that you need to understand that owners by and large don't spend their own money on players, so there is a real, live cap on salaries for each team depending on their revenue stream. So it's not really a hypothetical exercise. If you own a team, who would you most like to have rostered under their current salary arrangement?

Am I NY/Boston, or Pittsburgh/San Diego?

With the exception of the Yankees, it shouldn't matter. Even if you're Boston, you value, say, Strasburg over Hernandez because for example in 2012, Strasburg plus $14 million to spend in free agency > Felix at $19 million.

 

[jfranco77]

What would everyone's top 5 look like?Strasburg, Longoria, Votto, Zimmerman, and Hanley?

Strasburg is so tough to rank, assuming he is back and 100% then he's at worst #3 on the list. But if there's only an 80% chance that he is what he was? Then what? Given the uncertainty I'd go:1. Longoria2. Heyward3. Posey4. Strasburg5. Zim or Votto