Fans of teams in the AFC playoff hunt (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

For the Steelers, this is the scenario.

4 games decide our fate besides our own next week. The Jets/Bengals and Patriots/Texans games are of paramount importance.

First off, the Steelers must win at Miami, that's a given. They lose, they're out. If the Steelers win...

If both the Jets and Texans win, Pittsburgh is out no matter what else happens.

If the Jets lose at home to Cincinnati and Houston loses at home to New England, Steelers are in regardless of Baltimore and Denver's results.

If the Jets win and Houston loses, then Pittsburgh needs Baltimore to lose at Oakland in order to get in.

If Houston wins and the Jets lose, then Pittsburgh needs Baltimore to lose at Oakland and Denver to lose at home to KC to get in.

 

[paz1]

thanks Grin...I was hoping to find a "cheat sheet" of the scenarios and figured checking here would be a good start...

 

[The_Man]

pretty sure the Ravens are in if they win, though I'm not entirely sure what happens in a 3-way tie with Denver and the Jets. Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Steelers (better division record), so it doesn't matter to the Ravens if they end up in a tie with the Steelers.

 

[Aardvarks]

Not a Denver fan but I saw this on the denverbroncos.com message board:

Denver is at home vs KC and must Win, then one of these scenarios must happen:

1) Baltimore Loss (@ Oakland) & Pittsburgh Loss (@ Miami)

2) Pittsburgh Loss (@ Miami) and Jets Loss (@ Cincy)

3) Baltimore Loss (@ Oakland) and Jets Loss (@ Cincy)

It looks to me like Denver is in trouble.

 

[poopdawg]

For the Steelers, this is the scenario.

4 games decide our fate besides our own next week. The Jets/Bengals and Patriots/Texans games are of paramount importance.

First off, the Steelers must win at Miami, that's a given. They lose, they're out. If the Steelers win...

If both the Jets and Texans win, Pittsburgh is out no matter what else happens.

If the Jets lose at home to Cincinnati and Houston loses at home to New England, Steelers are in regardless of Baltimore and Denver's results.

If the Jets win and Houston loses, then Pittsburgh needs Baltimore to lose at Oakland in order to get in.

If Houston wins and the Jets lose, then Pittsburgh needs Baltimore to lose at Oakland and Denver to lose at home to KC to get in.

Dead on. Losses by both the Jets and Texans today would have been ideal, but the Steelers have no one to blame but themselves. I wasnt expecting next week to essentially be a playoff game, but its nice to root for, even if its a small chance. They shouldnt have lost to the teams they lost to, plain and simple. If nothing else, this will be a wake up call and hopefully Arians will be gone.

 

[MCguidance]

Jets win and they're in, right?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Jets win and they're in, right?

Yes.

 

[cobalt_27]

Jets win and they're in, right?

Yes.

Someone inform Rex Ryan. I doubt he knows, yet.

 

[MCguidance]

Which game gets flexed next week? Could it be the Jets/Bengals game?

 

[Stewy]

The Texans must beat NE. If they do that, and 2 of the following 3 teams lose, they are in:

1. Baltimore

2. NYJ

3. Denver

 

[roadkill1292]

pretty sure the Ravens are in if they win, though I'm not entirely sure what happens in a 3-way tie with Denver and the Jets. Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Steelers (better division record), so it doesn't matter to the Ravens if they end up in a tie with the Steelers.

Yahoo playoff generator is showing the Ravens out if tied with Denver and the Jets but I don't understand how that can be. Baltimore owns the head to head and common opponents tiebreakers over the Broncos.

 

[North]

Not sure how this whole thing shakes out for everyone else but this I do know. The Ravens hold the tie breaker against the Steelers (better division record)and Broncos (better head to head match up). It looks to me now that Denver lost all the Ravens need is to win in Oakland and they're in. I think they would edge out Houston as well because they have a better conference record.

I think that if the Ravens and Jets win they're in.

 

[The_Man]

pretty sure the Ravens are in if they win, though I'm not entirely sure what happens in a 3-way tie with Denver and the Jets. Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Steelers (better division record), so it doesn't matter to the Ravens if they end up in a tie with the Steelers.

Yahoo playoff generator is showing the Ravens out if tied with Denver and the Jets but I don't understand how that can be. Baltimore owns the head to head and common opponents tiebreakers over the Broncos.

Pretty sure that's wrong -- if there's a 3-way tie with Jets, Broncos and Ravens, then Jets are in with the best record in games vs. common opponents. After that tie is broken, it reverts to head-to-head, with the Ravens in over the Broncos.

 

[Raider Nation]

The guys on NBC kept saying the Pats and Bengals "have nothing to play for" next week.



What about the 3 seed?

Or would they each prefer the 4 seed so they go to Indy rather than San Diego?

 

[The_Man]

Rich Eisen on NFLN just said that both the Jets and Ravens have "win and they're in" scenarios" which is what everyone here thought, regardless of the Yahoo playoff calculator.

 

[QuizGuy66]

My team needs to show up in time for kickoff

Actually, I'm fascinated by how intertwined the Steelers fate is with the Bengals-Jets game. Might have a spare Bengals hat to send you guys for the week

-QG

 

[mike9289]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

 

[Buffaloes]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

 

[Please See Mine]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

They should think about winning more games. Particularly the Broncos and Steelers.

 

[Please See Mine]

pretty sure the Ravens are in if they win, though I'm not entirely sure what happens in a 3-way tie with Denver and the Jets. Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Steelers (better division record), so it doesn't matter to the Ravens if they end up in a tie with the Steelers.

Yahoo playoff generator is showing the Ravens out if tied with Denver and the Jets but I don't understand how that can be. Baltimore owns the head to head and common opponents tiebreakers over the Broncos.

3-way tiebreaker is like this.1. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.4. Strength of victory.5. Strength of schedule.So skip number 1. Number 2 they would all be tied at 7-5. I assume that they do not have 4 games in common (though I haven't looked, I don't see how they could.)So I'm thinking they would have to go to 4 and 5 (and then there are several others).

 

[Parrothead]

Die hard Steeler homer.. but I won't be too upset if they are shut out of the playoffs.. losing to Raiders, Chiefs, and the F'N BROWNS in a 5 game span should disqualify them..

but I'm still hoping..

 

[mike9289]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

The Texans, Jags and Titans all lost twice to the Colts. The Broncos and Ravens also lost to the Colts. Their only crime was being scheduled to play the Colts earlier in the season rather than in Week 16.

 

[Buffaloes]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

The Texans, Jags and Titans all lost twice to the Colts. The Broncos and Ravens also lost to the Colts. Their only crime was being scheduled to play the Colts earlier in the season rather than in Week 16.

They should have beat the Colts then. The fact is every one of those teams lost a game they probably should have won. They have no one to blame but themselves. And this is coming from a Denver fan.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

The Texans, Jags and Titans all lost twice to the Colts. The Broncos and Ravens also lost to the Colts. Their only crime was being scheduled to play the Colts earlier in the season rather than in Week 16.

Spin it any way you like. Indy could have pulled 22 guys out of the stands to play for them if they chose to do so.They earned that right.

 

[mike9289]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

The Texans, Jags and Titans all lost twice to the Colts. The Broncos and Ravens also lost to the Colts. Their only crime was being scheduled to play the Colts earlier in the season rather than in Week 16.

Spin it any way you like. Indy could have pulled 22 guys out of the stands to play for them if they chose to do so.They earned that right.

They earned that right against teams like Buffalo who are already out; not against a team on the playoff bubble.

 

[Raider Nation]

Spin it any way you like. Indy could have pulled 22 guys out of the stands to play for them if they chose to do so.They earned that right.

They earned that right against teams like Buffalo who are already out; not against a team on the playoff bubble.

Life isn't fair.

 

[DropKick]

The guys on NBC kept saying the Pats and Bengals "have nothing to play for" next week.



What about the 3 seed?

Or would they each prefer the 4 seed so they go to Indy rather than San Diego?

Really not much difference between the 3 and 4 seed. Both will host a first round game and travel to play a good team in the next round, if necessary. The opportunity to use week 17 as a pseudo "bye" week is typically more important than the actual seeding.I think the Jets (possible beneficiary of two gimmes) are going to be the big winners here.

 

[Raider Nation]

The guys on NBC kept saying the Pats and Bengals "have nothing to play for" next week.



What about the 3 seed?

Or would they each prefer the 4 seed so they go to Indy rather than San Diego?

Really not much difference between the 3 and 4 seed. Both will host a first round game and travel to play a good team in the next round.

Here's how it matters:If New England AND Cincy beat Indy and San Diego, respectively, then home field in the AFC title game is at stake.

Also, if you match up well with the team you expect to be the 6 seed... getting the 3 seed is important.

 

[knowledge dropper]

Bengals will rest their players next week, so you can pencil the Jets into the brackets.

 

[Raider Nation]

I generally just take it for granted that Vegas knows more than the general public.

If that's the case, New England and Cincy will indeed be resting their starters.

CIN @ NYJ

The Jets are favored by 9. In a normal week, that line would likely be Jets -1.

N.E. @ HOU

The Texans are favored by 7. In a normal week, that line would likely be Pats -3.

 

[knowledge dropper]

If the Jets are currently the #5, then the Bengals should rest their starters and take the #4. The Jets are probably the easiest out in the pig-pile of teams fighting for the WC. I certainly would rather face them over Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If the Jets are currently the #5, then the Bengals should rest their starters and take the #4. The Jets are probably the easiest out in the pig-pile of teams fighting for the WC. I certainly would rather face them over Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

We shall see

 

[Ghost Rider]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

While I think Caldwell ####ied out in Indy today, as a Broncos fan, you have all season to control your own destiny. If you have to depend on help from others to get into the playoffs, that is your own fault. The Broncos shouldn't have lost at home to the Raiders last week. If they miss the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[Trey]

A time machine.

 

[Lobary]

A time machine.

Haha.My team (the Texans) needs a time machine and Curtis Painter at QB for the Colts.I am looking forward to the day #18 is no longer playing in the AFC South.

 

[Raider Nation]

I am looking forward to the day #18 is no longer playing in the AFC South.

Him?

 

[kaa]

The guys on NBC kept saying the Pats and Bengals "have nothing to play for" next week.



What about the 3 seed?

Or would they each prefer the 4 seed so they go to Indy rather than San Diego?

They are playing for the right to host a potential Bengals-Patriots AFC title game.

 

[roadkill1292]

pretty sure the Ravens are in if they win, though I'm not entirely sure what happens in a 3-way tie with Denver and the Jets. Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Steelers (better division record), so it doesn't matter to the Ravens if they end up in a tie with the Steelers.

Yahoo playoff generator is showing the Ravens out if tied with Denver and the Jets but I don't understand how that can be. Baltimore owns the head to head and common opponents tiebreakers over the Broncos.

3-way tiebreaker is like this.1. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

4. Strength of victory.

5. Strength of schedule.

So skip number 1. Number 2 they would all be tied at 7-5. I assume that they do not have 4 games in common (though I haven't looked, I don't see how they could.)

So I'm thinking they would have to go to 4 and 5 (and then there are several others).

I'm still looking for a definition of "strength of victory." Do you add up the records of the teams you've beaten? Also, in a 3-way tie, after the first team emerges -- let's say it's the Jets on strength of victory, I don't think they played four games in common with either Baltimore or Denver -- don't you go back up to the top of the chart and start over with the two remaining teams?

Dang, I'd like the Ratbirds win over Denver to mean something.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Also, in a 3-way tie, after the first team emerges -- let's say it's the Jets on strength of victory, I don't think they played four games in common with either Baltimore or Denver -- don't you go back up to the top of the chart and start over with the two remaining teams?

Dang, I'd like the Ratbirds win over Denver to mean something.

CincinnatiIndianapolis

New England

Oakland

Jets, with a win Sunday, went 4-1 against those teams. Baltimore went 1-4 with a win Sunday. Denver went 3-2. That's why the Jets have the tiebreaker.

 

[Kirby]

Miami only needs to beat the Steelers and get wins from Cle, Oak, Cin, and NE.

 

[Steeler]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

 

[Polar Dude]

If the following outcomes occur, we will have four wild card games that feature the same matchups as week 17:

Houston beats New England

Oakland beats Baltimore

Miami beats Pittsburgh

KC beats Denver

Minnesota beats either Chicago or NYGiants

Dallas beats Philadelphia

 

[Crash Davis]

If the Jets are currently the #5, then the Bengals should rest their starters and take the #4. The Jets are probably the easiest out in the pig-pile of teams fighting for the WC. I certainly would rather face them over Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

It's funny to hear a Bengal fan say that. Let's compare the 2 teams for a second. Clearly the Bengals have had the better season, and winning is the only thing that matters. If you want to talk about "easiest out" though, let's look a bit closer and you'll see that the Jets have scored more points 311 to 305 and given up less (than anyone in the league BTW) 236 to 254 than the Bengals this season. The Jets have the #1 rushing offense in football and the top Defense in both yards allowed and points allowed. Obviously the biggest factor in the Bengals favor is that their QB doesn't give games away with picks. If Sanchez can limit his turnovers I think the Jets have a pretty good shot of beating the Bengals straight up. Careful what you wish for...

 

[TLEF316]

If the Jets are currently the #5, then the Bengals should rest their starters and take the #4. The Jets are probably the easiest out in the pig-pile of teams fighting for the WC. I certainly would rather face them over Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

you're in for a rude awakening if you think thats the case.Other than QB, the Jets are probably one of the top 5 or 6 teams in the whole league. (and thats with our NT and only big play threat both on IR)Of course, QB play is probably the worst thing to be missing, but this is a talented team. They basically pissed away 4 of their 7 losses (Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville) due to turnovers from Sanchez. If i was NE or Cincy, I'd much rather play Denver, Miami (without Ronnie Brown), Jacksonville or Houston than the Jets. If sanchez doesn't throw picks (and thats a HUGE "If") the Jets can beat anyone with their defense and running game.

 

[steelcityman]

Cincy and Pats have nothing to play for but 3-4th seeding. I dont expect either to win.

The AFC will have 2 strong teams and 4 average to below average teams in the playoffs.

The Steelers will be sick when this season is over and they are sitting home for the playoffs, OAK, KC, CLEV....just win one and we were in, ONE!!!

 

[Franknbeans]

Wonder what the Broncos, Texans and Steelers think about the Colts gift wrapping a playoff berth to the Jets.

If those teams had played better this season, they wouldn't have anything to cry about.

The Texans, Jags and Titans all lost twice to the Colts. The Broncos and Ravens also lost to the Colts. Their only crime was being scheduled to play the Colts earlier in the season rather than in Week 16.

Spin it any way you like. Indy could have pulled 22 guys out of the stands to play for them if they chose to do so.They earned that right.

They earned that right against teams like Buffalo who are already out; not against a team on the playoff bubble.

It's OK, everyone knows Indy's soft and will lose anyway.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

My team needs to show up in time for kickoff Actually, I'm fascinated by how intertwined the Steelers fate is with the Bengals-Jets game. Might have a spare Bengals hat to send you guys for the week -QG

I'll be wearing it, along with my Patriots leg warmers. then I'm going to swallow a shotgun.

 

[pollardsvision]

Alot of things, but biggest thing we need to get into the playoffs is a pass rush.

Oh, nevermind, you mean this season.

 

[cheese]

If the Jets are currently the #5, then the Bengals should rest their starters and take the #4. The Jets are probably the easiest out in the pig-pile of teams fighting for the WC. I certainly would rather face them over Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

you're in for a rude awakening if you think thats the case.Other than QB, the Jets are probably one of the top 5 or 6 teams in the whole league. (and thats with our NT and only big play threat both on IR)

Of course, QB play is probably the worst thing to be missing, but this is a talented team. They basically pissed away 4 of their 7 losses (Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville) due to turnovers from Sanchez.

If i was NE or Cincy, I'd much rather play Denver, Miami (without Ronnie Brown), Jacksonville or Houston than the Jets. If sanchez doesn't throw picks (and thats a HUGE "If") the Jets can beat anyone with their defense and running game.

The Jags and Miami aren't really realistic options at this point although obviously I would prefer them if they were. Houston already won in Cincy and is a terrible matchup IMO. I would gladly play Denver or the Jets. I think Cincy would beat the Ravens or Steelers again, but beating them a 3rd time seems like a bigger challenge to me than some of the others.Also, it is very possible that the Bengals could know before the game that they're already a 3 or 4.

Really only two bad things can happen this week for the Bengals that would matter and both are bad...

1. (Worst Case) Palmer gets hurt

2. You try to win and still lose at full strength and have to play them the next week

You avoid both scenerios by resting everyone.