Fantasy Anomalies (1 Viewer)

[DbqSitz40]

Hey Guys:

Just wondering what everyone thought about the following players who exceed typical expectations and production for their position within their respective schemes:

Jerod Mayo LILB (or SILB) - I find it somewhat weird that Mayo has managed to put up solid seasons in both years he's played in the league. Typically SILB linebackers don't put up that type of production in a 3-4 system. Is there something different about the modified "Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4" defensive scheme that New England runs that funnels plays to the strong side? Stephen Cooper for San Diego is another SILB who is consistently the leading tackler amongst linebackers on his own team and Demorrio Williams put up very stout tackle numbers last season from the SILB position as well.

Chad Greenway is another guy that amazes me. He's put up good numbers every year he's been in the league and he plays on the strong side. Is he able to outperform for his position through pure effort and talent or is Minnesota altering their scheme to benefit Greenway?

Lastly, Eric Weddle put up 105 solos in 2008 from the free safety position which is somewhat unheard of for a free safety. How was he able to produce such high tackle numbers? And do you think we'll see those type of numbers again from him?

I have my own ideas and thoughts on these players, but I'm always interested in seeing what others think.

Thanks in advance

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jerod Mayo LILB (or SILB) - I find it somewhat weird that Mayo has managed to put up solid seasons in both years he's played in the league. Typically SILB linebackers don't put up that type of production in a 3-4 system. Is there something different about the modified "Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4" defensive scheme that New England runs that funnels plays to the strong side? Stephen Cooper for San Diego is another SILB who is consistently the leading tackler amongst linebackers on his own team and Demorrio Williams put up very stout tackle numbers last season from the SILB position as well.

Jerod Mayo and Demorrio Williams both play WILB.Stephen Cooper's tackle production, other than a good season in 2008 on a per game basis, hasn't been anything great. His LB2 value has primarily been generated by an aggressive blitz philosophy and a little luck to go with good ball skills that has generated lots of big plays.

I still think it's important to make the distinction between WILB and SILB in the 3-4, but a SILB who can shed blocks and play well enough in coverage to stay on the field every down -- Cooper, Channing Crowder, James Farrior, etc -- is still a viable LB2 candidate.

Chad Greenway is another guy that amazes me. He's put up good numbers every year he's been in the league and he plays on the strong side. Is he able to outperform for his position through pure effort and talent or is Minnesota altering their scheme to benefit Greenway?

Greenway benefits from playing every down, what has been an oft-injured MLB next to him and relatively weak secondary play up the middle. The talent certainly helps, but it's the every-down opportunity that drives the numbers I think.

Lastly, Eric Weddle put up 105 solos in 2008 from the free safety position which is somewhat unheard of for a free safety. How was he able to produce such high tackle numbers? And do you think we'll see those type of numbers again from him?

The Chargers had the fifth best tackle opportunity in the league in 2008, over four per game above the league average. More importantly, that opportunity was seriously skewed toward pass completions, with SD allowing 25 a game, over five more than the league average. They faced a below average number of rush attempts per game. Alongside replacement level talent like Matt Wilhelm, Tim Dobbins, Clinton Hart, there was nice opportunity to be had.We argued prior to last season that those numbers weren't likely to hold and to expect a steep drop in Weddle's numbers, though not so much that he couldn't still reach 75-80 solos. Last year the Chargers had the 20th best tackle opportunity in the league and allowed just a league average 20 completions per game. In raw numbers, they faced nearly 64 fewer overall tackle opportunities last year (over a full game's worth) and 80 fewer pass completions (almost four full game's fewer).

In that context, Weddle's 84 solos against a league average opportunity are still extremely impressive. Weddle's 2010 production probably depends on how much the Chargers get out of Darrell Stuckey. I also thought Donald Butler further stabilizing the ILB position was going to have a long term impact, but that's less certain now.

 

[DbqSitz40]

As always, thank for the quick and thorough reply Jene.

My mistake on Mayo and Williams, I guess I should have learned not to trust to CBS' depth charts:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/depth-chart/NE

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/depth-chart/KC

 

[Jene Bramel]

My mistake on Mayo and Williams, I guess I should have learned not to trust to CBS' depth charts:

It's probably not as clear cut as I made it seem above. Belichick has, in the past, not flipped his backers from left to right according to the offensive formation. I assume that was because he had linebackers of talent who could handle either responsibility in what leans toward a 2-gap 3-4 scheme. For example, guys like Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson were pretty similar players. That's not what happened last season, however, when Mayo and Guyton did flip right-left based on formation and it was predominantly Mayo who went to the weak side of the defense.It's worth noting because, though it was only a handful of snaps and against a spread offense, last night's game against New Orleans had Brandon Spikes to the right side on all but one play and regardless of the offensive formation. There was one snap where Mayo came over to the right side after the huddle broke, but it was a nickel snap. Might be interesting to see how that one plays out.Williams was pretty clearly a WILB backer last season. He flipped right-left with Corey Mays and was always to the weak side. With Crennel in town now, similar caveats as those with Belichick above will apply.

 

[Jestefarean]

Should Mayo owners be worried Spikes will take more and more WILB looks? I've been assuming Mayo will maintain the most adventagous role. Thanks in advance.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Should Mayo owners be worried Spikes will take more and more WILB looks? I've been assuming Mayo will maintain the most adventagous role. Thanks in advance.

Someone else may have a stronger opinion, but it's difficult to take much away from the first preseason game with so few snaps against a spread offense. On a couple of the 3-4 plays in question, Mayo was the weak side backer while aligned on the left.I still expect Mayo to be the better IDP option, but it's worth watching the nickel packages pretty closely over the next two weeks.

 

[Jestefarean]

Ty Jene.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I would like to add that although the pats are considered a 3-4 team, mayo saw snaps at mlb in 4-3 sets.

also, as jene already mentioned, a lot of this kind of production comes simply from opportunity --- you might be comparing a 3-4 lb who plays 1000 snaps to a 4-3 mlb who plays 500 snaps.

 

[Jene Bramel]

On a couple of the 3-4 plays in question, Mayo was the weak side backer while aligned on the left.

You must watch and see games in a totaly different way then I. I own Mayo.He plays the SILB (Left inside on a-typical formations) and follows towards the TE side (with key responsibility on either the FB or HB). Furthermore, in a 3-4 the ROLB (WOLB) is usually way up on the line. Thus the LILB typiclly has a LB to each of his flanks. The LOLB and the RILB. This is the reason the LILB/SILB is called the MIKE by coaches and garner a bunch of tackles - due to his centered positioning.This was all very apparent last night. (This doesnt mean that there is an occasional change based on odd offensive personell/formations).

From the first series of the JAX/NE game late last season (see images attached below):1st play of the game: Mayo at RILB against a balanced TE formation2nd play of the game: Mayo at RILB away from the Jags two TE formation to the rightThat's consistent with what I observed on most occasions last year. Things appeared that they might be different last night, but I think it's too soon to say for certain.Some playbooks call the RILB/WILB "Mike" -- the Nolan playbook in particular. Bill Parcells said his Jack (WILB) is the position that should garner the most tackles, Nolan has said his Mike (WILB) is his playmaking position.That's certainly not to argue that a very good SILB can't be a very productive tackler. Andra Davis comes to mind as a very good stack and shed SILB, James Farrior has had great success there as well.

 

[Jene Bramel]

On a couple of the 3-4 plays in question, Mayo was the weak side backer while aligned on the left.

You must watch and see games in a totaly different way then I. I own Mayo.He plays the SILB (Left inside on a-typical formations) and follows towards the TE side (with key responsibility on either the FB or HB). Furthermore, in a 3-4 the ROLB (WOLB) is usually way up on the line. Thus the LILB typiclly has a LB to each of his flanks. The LOLB and the RILB. This is the reason the LILB/SILB is called the MIKE by coaches and garner a bunch of tackles - due to his centered positioning.This was all very apparent last night. (This doesnt mean that there is an occasional change based on odd offensive personell/formations).

From the first series of the JAX/NE game late last season (see images attached below):1st play of the game: Mayo at RILB against a balanced TE formation2nd play of the game: Mayo at RILB away from the Jags two TE formation to the rightThat's consistent with what I observed on most occasions last year. Things appeared that they might be different last night, but I think it's too soon to say for certain.Some playbooks call the RILB/WILB "Mike" -- the Nolan playbook in particular. Bill Parcells said his Jack (WILB) is the position that should garner the most tackles, Nolan has said his Mike (WILB) is his playmaking position.That's certainly not to argue that a very good SILB can't be a very productive tackler. Andra Davis comes to mind as a very good stack and shed SILB, James Farrior has had great success there as well.

Both of those are double TE sets. And to be honest Im having a hard time seeing the #s on those pics. Sorry about that.

I'll take screen caps from further along in each play if you like, but the RILB in both plays is Mayo.Would you say the RILB in those plays is the strong side or weak side ILB?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

somebody pay the 50 bucks for pff and we'll check that out.

ohhhh I know....use the free trial to look week by week at what position he started at.

not nearly as thorough, but it's something.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

maybe you were sitting on the wrong side of the couch.

 

[DbqSitz40]

Another guy I noticed that is listed as a LILB on CBS' depth charts is Ray Lewis. Is it accurate to say that he plays on the strong side? Or do they have this wrong?

Here's the link: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/depth-chart/BAL