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Fantasy Expectations for Patriots @ Saints (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
What is everyone thinking for final score and standout (or bust) fantasy starts?

I am thinking not alot of 'tough' DEF, but a chance for an INT or two by each DEF. 35-34 game like Pats/Colts last week? Secondary targets and backup TEs getting the TDs, or the usual suspects? Pounding the ball with Maroney and Bell to keep the ball out of the hands of the other offense?

What do you got?

 
Could be lots of reasons. Maybe both offenses slow down and try to eat clock to keep the other offense off the field, maybe turnovers, maybe stout defense because it's not expected. who knows. Just don't think this game is going to be high scoring and in the 30s/40s. I hope I'm wrong as my fantasy would really need it to be high scoring (Brady and Thomas owner).

 
Yeah I don't see this game getting out of the 20s...
You really see the defenses holding down the offenses of both teams or just stopping them in the red zone??
Few reasons:- NE's red zone offense has not been very good this season. - I'm sure Bill Parcells spoke to Sean Payton this week about the best way to defend the Patriots- The Saints offense has looked a little more vulnerable the past month than it did previously (not that it is vulnerable per se, but you know what I mean). Now that theres more tape on how to defend NO, Belichick will take advantage- Both teams are too closely matched to turn this into a shootout. Expect a lot more running than you would think.
 
As a Pats fan, with the Saints banged up secondary (two guys just brought in off the street who will likely see serious snaps given the amount of nickel & dime NE will force them to play) I expect similar offensive results for the Pats as the Colts game. I'll def. be surprised if they don't hit the 30s. (And let's not also forget BB & Brady are familiar with Gregg Williams defensive schemes given his time with the Bills.)

So to me, the million dollar question is what can the Pats D do vs. the Saints O. There have been times where Brees has looked human this year, and I'm hoping Monday is one of those days .... but I'm not banking on it. I think again it could be similar to the Colts game where the Pats D has a solid first half (which they always seem to do) but then the D goes into soft prevent keep-everything-in-front-of-you mode and Brees starts gobbling up yards.

For fantasy purposes, I expect big days from the WRs on all sides, with moderate RB production (TDs might be there, but I don't think the yards will be.)

 
My take:

MUST STARTS

Brady

Brees

Moss

Welker

Colston

Carney

Gostkowski

SOLID STARTS

Thomas

Maroney

Shockey

WORTHY STARTS

Bush

Meachem

Saints D (

RISKY BUT COULD COME THROUGH

Bell

Henderson

Faulk

Watson

D.Thomas

PROBABLY NOT A GOOD IDEA THIS WEEK

New England D

 
Belichick is faced with fourth and two from his own 28 with a six point lead. He decides to punt. Brees leads the Saints on a 70 yard drive and throws the game winning touchdown as time expires. Peter King's head explodes.

 
NOS 31-28

Brady - 285, 2 TD, 1 INT

Moss - 6, 80, 1 TD

Welker - 9, 100, 1 TD

Maroney - 70, 1 TD

Faulk - 40 total, 3 catches

Watson - 2, 25

Brees - 295, 2 TD, 1 INT

Colston - 5, 75, 1 TD

Shockey - 4, 40

Meachem - 2, 35, 1 TD

Thomas - 75 total, 2 catches

Bell - 50 total, 1 TD

Bush - 70 total, 4 catches, 1 TD (money on MNF)

 
Belichick is faced with fourth and two from his own 28 with a six point lead. He decides to punt. Brees leads the Saints on a 70 yard drive and throws the game winning touchdown as time expires. Peter King's head explodes.
LOL,, and ESPN would have to start a new channel just to cover and compare this decision to the last one. I'm another that doesn't expect a high scoring game. I doubt that either team wants to get into a scoring match shoot-out with the other. That being said, should one team get up by 10 or more all hell's libel to bust out then and we could see ref's calling time outs to catch their breath from running up and down the field with the passing game. As a guess, I'll say 23-17 Pats.
 
Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled.
Curious and serious question: How do you see the Saints D shutting down Brady? He's put up 300+ for something like 5 straight games vs. similar if not better defenses. Also, the last time he faced a Gregg Williams defense (with arguably better players running it) the Pats scored 52.Not saying the Pats will win, but I do think the offense gets it going.
 
Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled.
Curious and serious question: How do you see the Saints D shutting down Brady? He's put up 300+ for something like 5 straight games vs. similar if not better defenses. Also, the last time he faced a Gregg Williams defense (with arguably better players running it) the Pats scored 52.Not saying the Pats will win, but I do think the offense gets it going.
Didn't say that.
 
Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled.
Curious and serious question: How do you see the Saints D shutting down Brady? He's put up 300+ for something like 5 straight games vs. similar if not better defenses. Also, the last time he faced a Gregg Williams defense (with arguably better players running it) the Pats scored 52.Not saying the Pats will win, but I do think the offense gets it going.
Didn't say that.
I'll assume you think Brady/NE will turn the ball over more? That's the big key to this game....well any game really. An area the Saints have been above average on the defensive side of the ball.
 
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Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled.
Curious and serious question: How do you see the Saints D shutting down Brady? He's put up 300+ for something like 5 straight games vs. similar if not better defenses. Also, the last time he faced a Gregg Williams defense (with arguably better players running it) the Pats scored 52.Not saying the Pats will win, but I do think the offense gets it going.
Didn't say that.
What does "Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled" actually mean then?
 
Injurys play a big factor here. If The Saints get Greer, Gay, Ellis, (Pretty much everyone except Tracy Porter) I think the stats of Brady and the Wr's will be much lower than expected. I have not heard if those players are returning to the field this week or not. If not the sky is the limit for Tom Brady facing a depleted Saints secondary and no rush up the middle. He will have time and targets if this is the case. On the Saints offense you have to watch if Bush returns or not because he must be accounted for and he frees up alot of what the Saints do on offense. I look for PT and Bell to be a key factor in this game and the TE's yes Shockey but also the other tight end David Thomas. The Pats will try to blanket Colston so look for an elevated game from the other targets of Henderson and Meachum.

 
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If Bush plays as expected, it's worth noting he has scored a touchdown in every game he's played on ESPN in his career.

 
Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled.
Curious and serious question: How do you see the Saints D shutting down Brady? He's put up 300+ for something like 5 straight games vs. similar if not better defenses. Also, the last time he faced a Gregg Williams defense (with arguably better players running it) the Pats scored 52.Not saying the Pats will win, but I do think the offense gets it going.
Didn't say that.
What does "Tough night for Brady, Pats get rolled" actually mean then?
Brady has a difficult night. Saints win the game handily.
 
NOS 31-28Brady - 285, 2 TD, 1 INTMoss - 6, 80, 1 TDWelker - 9, 100, 1 TDMaroney - 70, 1 TDFaulk - 40 total, 3 catchesWatson - 2, 25Brees - 295, 2 TD, 1 INTColston - 5, 75, 1 TDShockey - 4, 40Meachem - 2, 35, 1 TDThomas - 75 total, 2 catchesBell - 50 total, 1 TDBush - 70 total, 4 catches, 1 TD (money on MNF)
Got the 4 TD's for NO...colston, meachem, bell & bushHard to figure the 4 from NE...moss, welker & maroneyu have NE scoring 28...is that a DST TD?
 
DET

@PHI

@BUF

NYJ

NYG

@MIA

ATL

CAR

@STL

@TB

Who's the best QB New Orleans has faced this year, Eli?

 
As a Pats fan, with the Saints banged up secondary (two guys just brought in off the street who will likely see serious snaps given the amount of nickel & dime NE will force them to play) I expect similar offensive results for the Pats as the Colts game. I'll def. be surprised if they don't hit the 30s. (And let's not also forget BB & Brady are familiar with Gregg Williams defensive schemes given his time with the Bills.)So to me, the million dollar question is what can the Pats D do vs. the Saints O. There have been times where Brees has looked human this year, and I'm hoping Monday is one of those days .... but I'm not banking on it. I think again it could be similar to the Colts game where the Pats D has a solid first half (which they always seem to do) but then the D goes into soft prevent keep-everything-in-front-of-you mode and Brees starts gobbling up yards.For fantasy purposes, I expect big days from the WRs on all sides, with moderate RB production (TDs might be there, but I don't think the yards will be.)
This is what I see as well (at least on paper). The Pats weak spot is their pass rush...a good QB with time can have a lot of success against them. For NO, with all their weapons to attack them anyway else (i.e. grinding it out) really doesn't make sense to me. On the flipside the Pats O is going to put up points regardless of the defense they face (especially indoors with the elements not factoring into this contest). Now whether they can put up enough to keep up the Saints is another story.Like the Colts game this game will come down to the pass rush. If the Pats can figure out a way to get to Brees they have a chance...my issue is I don't know if they have the talent to do so. One the flipside if NO can hurry Brady (like Mathis did two weeks ago) than the scales tip to the Saints. My guess is if you look at the stat sheet for the second half and look at each team's sack/hurries total you'll find your winner.
 
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Yeah I don't see this game getting out of the 20s...
You really see the defenses holding down the offenses of both teams or just stopping them in the red zone??
Few reasons:- NE's red zone offense has not been very good this season. - I'm sure Bill Parcells spoke to Sean Payton this week about the best way to defend the Patriots- The Saints offense has looked a little more vulnerable the past month than it did previously (not that it is vulnerable per se, but you know what I mean). Now that theres more tape on how to defend NO, Belichick will take advantage- Both teams are too closely matched to turn this into a shootout. Expect a lot more running than you would think.
I expect more running as well although I dont think Maroney will gash the Saints like some of the stud backs they have faced. NE could focus on the Saints passing game and that would force Sean Payton to use PT, Bell and Bush- Here is an interesting fact that bears watching: New England has lost three times despite being third in the NFL in scoring, second in scoring defense and second in turnover margin. In those defeats, opponents outscored the Patriots 47-10 in the second half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter.The Patriots led the New York Jets 9-3 at the half and lost 16-9. They led the Denver Broncos 17-7 at the half and lost 20-17 in overtime. They led the Indianapolis Colts 24-14 at the half and lost 35-34.New Orleans has outscored opponents 105-24 in the fourth quarter and 188-78 in the second half. This is quite the scenario that could play out on Monday night.
 
Yeah I don't see this game getting out of the 20s...
You really see the defenses holding down the offenses of both teams or just stopping them in the red zone??
Few reasons:- NE's red zone offense has not been very good this season. - I'm sure Bill Parcells spoke to Sean Payton this week about the best way to defend the Patriots- The Saints offense has looked a little more vulnerable the past month than it did previously (not that it is vulnerable per se, but you know what I mean). Now that theres more tape on how to defend NO, Belichick will take advantage- Both teams are too closely matched to turn this into a shootout. Expect a lot more running than you would think.
I expect more running as well although I dont think Maroney will gash the Saints like some of the stud backs they have faced. NE could focus on the Saints passing game and that would force Sean Payton to use PT, Bell and Bush- Here is an interesting fact that bears watching: New England has lost three times despite being third in the NFL in scoring, second in scoring defense and second in turnover margin. In those defeats, opponents outscored the Patriots 47-10 in the second half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter.The Patriots led the New York Jets 9-3 at the half and lost 16-9. They led the Denver Broncos 17-7 at the half and lost 20-17 in overtime. They led the Indianapolis Colts 24-14 at the half and lost 35-34.New Orleans has outscored opponents 105-24 in the fourth quarter and 188-78 in the second half. This is quite the scenario that could play out on Monday night.
Great stat. Intresting, but I doubt it will be that obvious on MNF. In the games NE has won, what is the score total in the half and 4th?
 
When does New England or New Orleans not score a ton of points? This should be no different.
When do the Lions/Browns hang 75 combined points? All I know is that often, it's just when you KNOW beyond any doubt - anything about the NFL, you're in for a rude awakening. That said, I still like the offenses in this one.
 
DET @PHI @BUF NYJ NYG @MIA ATL CAR @STL @TBWho's the best QB New Orleans has faced this year, Eli?
Buff@ NYJAtlBalt@ DenTenn@ TBMia@ IndyNYJWho's the best QB New England has faced this year aside from Peyton (to which they lost to, of course)?
 
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How is it the "game of the century"? Pats already played one of the unbeatens and lost... I expect the same to happen again.

ETA - you've got to think the PAts are going to be feeling a ton of pressure facing NO, after losing in the last minutes to Indy. Indy didn't play well at all for three quarters (or you can say the PAts did well against them for three quarters), but NE couldn't stop Manning at all in the 4th. (Yes, he threw a bad pass, it was a miscommunication that led to an INT). I'm not sure they'll be able to contain Brees AND stop the NO running game.

 
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Here is an interesting fact that bears watching: New England has lost three times despite being third in the NFL in scoring, second in scoring defense and second in turnover margin. In those defeats, opponents outscored the Patriots 47-10 in the second half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter.The Patriots led the New York Jets 9-3 at the half and lost 16-9. They led the Denver Broncos 17-7 at the half and lost 20-17 in overtime. They led the Indianapolis Colts 24-14 at the half and lost 35-34.New Orleans has outscored opponents 105-24 in the fourth quarter and 188-78 in the second half. This is quite the scenario that could play out on Monday night.
That the Pats have had lousy 2nd halves on the road and the Saints have looked outstanding after halftime is indeed a huge concern for Pats fans looking ahead to Monday night. The subject comes up repeatedly on patsfans.com and I'm sure other Pats-centric messageboards.
 
Pats D is a little suspect this year. You have to think Belichick will try to make the Saints offense 1 dimensional. Question is, what does he take away... the running game or the passing game.

I think BB crowds the line and plays to shut down the run and bump the receivers off the line to disrupt timing. Straight pressure up the middle to work as both pass and run blitzing will be the order of the day.

Saints will counter with misdirection runs and quick passes underneath. In the end the Pats will get burned at least once deep with their high risk pressure D they will need to employ.

 
Yeah I don't see this game getting out of the 20s...
You really see the defenses holding down the offenses of both teams or just stopping them in the red zone??
Few reasons:- NE's red zone offense has not been very good this season. - I'm sure Bill Parcells spoke to Sean Payton this week about the best way to defend the Patriots- The Saints offense has looked a little more vulnerable the past month than it did previously (not that it is vulnerable per se, but you know what I mean). Now that theres more tape on how to defend NO, Belichick will take advantage- Both teams are too closely matched to turn this into a shootout. Expect a lot more running than you would think.
I expect more running as well although I dont think Maroney will gash the Saints like some of the stud backs they have faced. NE could focus on the Saints passing game and that would force Sean Payton to use PT, Bell and Bush- Here is an interesting fact that bears watching: New England has lost three times despite being third in the NFL in scoring, second in scoring defense and second in turnover margin. In those defeats, opponents outscored the Patriots 47-10 in the second half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter.The Patriots led the New York Jets 9-3 at the half and lost 16-9. They led the Denver Broncos 17-7 at the half and lost 20-17 in overtime. They led the Indianapolis Colts 24-14 at the half and lost 35-34.New Orleans has outscored opponents 105-24 in the fourth quarter and 188-78 in the second half. This is quite the scenario that could play out on Monday night.
As a Pats fan, I'm well aware of how poorly they played in second half (esp. 4th Q) of their losses (and even some of their wins), but I had no idea the Saints were such monsters in the second half. Not a good combo at all for the Pats.
 
As a Pats fan, with the Saints banged up secondary (two guys just brought in off the street who will likely see serious snaps given the amount of nickel & dime NE will force them to play) I expect similar offensive results for the Pats as the Colts game. I'll def. be surprised if they don't hit the 30s. (And let's not also forget BB & Brady are familiar with Gregg Williams defensive schemes given his time with the Bills.)So to me, the million dollar question is what can the Pats D do vs. the Saints O. There have been times where Brees has looked human this year, and I'm hoping Monday is one of those days .... but I'm not banking on it. I think again it could be similar to the Colts game where the Pats D has a solid first half (which they always seem to do) but then the D goes into soft prevent keep-everything-in-front-of-you mode and Brees starts gobbling up yards.For fantasy purposes, I expect big days from the WRs on all sides, with moderate RB production (TDs might be there, but I don't think the yards will be.)
I think "the banged up secondary" theory is overblown. The Saints rested Greer so he could go on Monday. Gay may be back as well. They will have 3 of 4 starters with the 4th being the top CB in last year's draft. The only way the guys off the street play significant snaps is if injuries occur during the game or the Pats play 5 WR formations. In that case I think McCalister or McKenzie should be able to hang with Julian Eddleman!This should be a 30-27 game. I think the Saints ability to run will be the key to watch as far as the score.
 
When does New England or New Orleans not score a ton of points? This should be no different.
When do the Lions/Browns hang 75 combined points? All I know is that often, it's just when you KNOW beyond any doubt - anything about the NFL, you're in for a rude awakening. That said, I still like the offenses in this one.
Not sure I follow your logic here. I'm suggesting both the Saints and Pats almost always score a lot of points. The Lions and the Browns rarely score a lot of points. I said this should be more of the same, which recognizes that it may not be a high scoring affair, but should be. Not sure where my guarantee was, but those prediciting a low scoring game don't have the numbers to back them up. But they could be right.
 
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Whats sad is I know a so called football fan who will watch "House" instead!

Pats/Saints who would of thunk it?.......

WHO DAT 34

Patsies 31

 
When does New England or New Orleans not score a ton of points? This should be no different.
When do the Lions/Browns hang 75 combined points? All I know is that often, it's just when you KNOW beyond any doubt - anything about the NFL, you're in for a rude awakening. That said, I still like the offenses in this one.
Not sure I follow your logic here. I'm suggesting both the Saints and Pats almost always score a lot of points. The Lions and the Browns rarely score a lot of points. I said this should be more of the same, which recognizes that it may not be a high scoring affair, but should be. Not sure where my guarantee was, but those prediciting a low scoring game don't have the numbers to back them up. But they could be right.
Yeah, you didn't follow my logic. The Lions and Browns scored a combined 75 points just last Sunday. And on paper it looked like a snoozefest. Anyway, there's really no point to be made, other than it's uncanny how often games like this turn out the opposite of what the numbers would suggest. I predict somewhere in the middle - not high, not low. 27-24 Pats.

 
DET @PHI @BUF NYJ NYG @MIA ATL CAR @STL @TBWho's the best QB New Orleans has faced this year, Eli?
Buff@ NYJAtlBalt@ DenTenn@ TBMia@ IndyNYJWho's the best QB New England has faced this year aside from Peyton (to which they lost to, of course)?
Orton or Ryan maybe.Thing is, no one is predicting a poor night for Brees, several are for Brady. I would guess they are basing this on the New Orleans D's performance to date. So the point being, the QBs that NO has faced so far might be a poor yardstick by which to gauge expectations for Brady.
 
Yeah I don't see this game getting out of the 20s...
You really see the defenses holding down the offenses of both teams or just stopping them in the red zone??
Few reasons:- NE's red zone offense has not been very good this season. - I'm sure Bill Parcells spoke to Sean Payton this week about the best way to defend the Patriots- The Saints offense has looked a little more vulnerable the past month than it did previously (not that it is vulnerable per se, but you know what I mean). Now that theres more tape on how to defend NO, Belichick will take advantage- Both teams are too closely matched to turn this into a shootout. Expect a lot more running than you would think.
I expect more running as well although I dont think Maroney will gash the Saints like some of the stud backs they have faced. NE could focus on the Saints passing game and that would force Sean Payton to use PT, Bell and Bush- Here is an interesting fact that bears watching: New England has lost three times despite being third in the NFL in scoring, second in scoring defense and second in turnover margin. In those defeats, opponents outscored the Patriots 47-10 in the second half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter.The Patriots led the New York Jets 9-3 at the half and lost 16-9. They led the Denver Broncos 17-7 at the half and lost 20-17 in overtime. They led the Indianapolis Colts 24-14 at the half and lost 35-34.New Orleans has outscored opponents 105-24 in the fourth quarter and 188-78 in the second half. This is quite the scenario that could play out on Monday night.
As a Pats fan, I'm well aware of how poorly they played in second half (esp. 4th Q) of their losses (and even some of their wins), but I had no idea the Saints were such monsters in the second half. Not a good combo at all for the Pats.
As a long, long, longtime Saints fan, I'd love to hear what Pats fans have to say about their team's defense, pass defense, and current secondary. Also whether Belichick is still to be feared as a serious factor in terms of his ability to counter-strategize vs. offenses.Also not sure if anyone has mentioned this - the crowd impact. Yes, it's different here.
 
As a long, long, longtime Saints fan, I'd love to hear what Pats fans have to say about their team's defense, pass defense, and current secondary. Also whether Belichick is still to be feared as a serious factor in terms of his ability to counter-strategize vs. offenses.Also not sure if anyone has mentioned this - the crowd impact. Yes, it's different here.
The Pats defense is a bit of an enigma. They can look great, flying to the ball, brilliant defensive playcalls, then they get a lead and *POOF* the strategy that was working goes out the window and it’s all very passive, DBs playing off the receivers with BB adamant not to get beat deep, very few blitzers. Before you know it, the other team is back in the game.The DL if at full strength (and should be close with Warren & Green hopefully both suiting up) is solid against the run, but not so much at pressuring QBs. They have a lot more speed at LB with Guyton & Mayo in the middle. The secondary is much improved from last year. McGowan (cast off from Bears) came out of nowhere to steal the starting safety spot from James Sanders, and together with Meriweather form probably the best safety tandem the Pats have had in years. The corners are a deep unit, though with no real marquee guy (Bodden is probably the best, followed by second-year guy Wilhite and then rookie Darius Butler). They’ve been using rookie safety Pat Chung a lot more and he looks promising, esp. when they bring him on a safety blitz. One thing I’ll give the coaching staff is they have run some very well-timed safety blitzes this season. The problem comes with getting pressure on QBs with 4 or even 5 guys. The most consistent pass rusher is Tully Banta Cain (which tells you a lot). But when you are getting pressure on the QB receivers tend to get open.Ironically, any problems they have usually comes down (IMO) to playcalling and defensive philosophy, not talent. I will say that the secondary misses too many tackles for my liking, but for the most part all the guys out there are good football players and athletes.I’m concerned with the dome noise. The Superdome is one of the few stadiums that actually allows for a real home field advantage in today’s world of cavernous sound vacuum, luxury-box stadiums. Hoping the Pats can get up early to take the crowd out and sufficiently fend off any Saints rallies.
 

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