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Fantasy Football Excuses (1 Viewer)

This #### is just super random now.  Variance seems like it goes up every year.  It's injuries and game script and officiating and matchups... 

All you can do is give yourself the best chance to win, sort of like poker. Once the ball is kicked off, you're hoping to win a series of coin flips. 

 
This #### is just super random now.  Variance seems like it goes up every year.  It's injuries and game script and officiating and matchups... 

All you can do is give yourself the best chance to win, sort of like poker. Once the ball is kicked off, you're hoping to win a series of coin flips. 
In addition, its easy for everyone to get all the same information going into a draft.  There are no gems to be found later.  Before you had to do your own research and come up with your own cheatsheets and could find lesser known players that are coming into a new role.  Now everyone has that info.  It's the luck of the draw if your guys stay healthy and outperform/underperform their expectations.  The luck factor keeps rising....

 
In addition, its easy for everyone to get all the same information going into a draft.  There are no gems to be found later.  Before you had to do your own research and come up with your own cheatsheets and could find lesser known players that are coming into a new role.  Now everyone has that info.  It's the luck of the draw if your guys stay healthy and outperform/underperform their expectations.  The luck factor keeps rising....
I almost think the opposite.  Reading a quick FBG blurb or magazine article about how Aaron Jones is a sleeper is no longer an advantage, as if it was any kind of "skill" in the first place.

But the ways to separate are still out there.  Calvin Ridley is a great example.  He failed a bunch of metrics that suddenly got sexy in FF circles and everyone threw him onto their bust list, even though if you actually looked at the context in which those variables were being measured he scored really well in them when adjusted properly. 

Those that went beyond the 2 paragraph article that was circulating and saw the problems with it are being rewarded handsomely right now, and this kind of thing pops up all the time.  The same way that those that saw through the 2014 WR class that coincided with a drought of RBs being a circumstance rather than a change in dynasty philosophy are enjoying their stud RBs and championships right now.  And likewise those that were years slow to being somewhat spendy on rookies because "they've never played a down in the NFL before!" missed out on some great, relatively obvious bargain buys on guys who are now virtually untouchable.

 
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I almost think the opposite.  Reading a quick FBG blurb or magazine article about how Aaron Jones is a sleeper is no longer an advantage, as if it was any kind of "skill" in the first place.

But the ways to separate are still out there.  Calvin Ridley is a great example.  He failed a bunch of metrics that suddenly got sexy in FF circles and everyone threw him onto their bust list, even though if you actually looked at the context in which those variables were being measured he scored really well in them when adjusted properly. 

Those that went beyond the 2 paragraph article that was circulating and saw the problems with it are being rewarded handsomely right now, and this kind of thing pops up all the time.  The same way that those that saw through the 2014 WR class that coincided with a drought of RBs being a circumstance rather than a change in dynasty philosophy are enjoying their stud RBs and championships right now.  And likewise those that were years slow to being somewhat spendy on rookies because "they've never played a down in the NFL before!" missed out on some great, relatively obvious bargain buys on guys who are now virtually untouchable.
There is some skill in knowing what info to believe and what info not to believe but by and large cheatsheets are virtually all the same and take a lot of the skill out of finding hidden gems.  I started in 1985 and the only way you found information back then was to do a lot of work.  It panned out more often than not and took a lot of the luck out of the end results. 

Many of your examples have more to do with dynasty leagues over re-draft and that is where the better prepared do still have more of an advantage.  In re-drafts the rookie evaluations have less value and a lot more risk and generally aren't as necessary for success as they are in dynasty's. 

In general, I believe that there is a lot more luck involved with fantasy success than skill and that has flopped from back in the day.  The more information that is easily accessible the more luck will play into the outcome - there is still some skill in weeding through the crap info but that is being minimized. 

 
I almost think the opposite.  Reading a quick FBG blurb or magazine article about how Aaron Jones is a sleeper is no longer an advantage, as if it was any kind of "skill" in the first place.

But the ways to separate are still out there.  Calvin Ridley is a great example.  He failed a bunch of metrics that suddenly got sexy in FF circles and everyone threw him onto their bust list, even though if you actually looked at the context in which those variables were being measured he scored really well in them when adjusted properly. 

Those that went beyond the 2 paragraph article that was circulating and saw the problems with it are being rewarded handsomely right now, and this kind of thing pops up all the time.  The same way that those that saw through the 2014 WR class that coincided with a drought of RBs being a circumstance rather than a change in dynasty philosophy are enjoying their stud RBs and championships right now.  And likewise those that were years slow to being somewhat spendy on rookies because "they've never played a down in the NFL before!" missed out on some great, relatively obvious bargain buys on guys who are now virtually untouchable.
I don't agree with the bolded part, but its debatable and probably more of a case by case scenario.  I'd rather have WRs to build around than RBs for several reasons, but that's just my preference I suppose and case to case depending on who the player is.

Generally speaking, I would argue that the stud RBs are susceptible to larger fluctuations in production due to changing team circumstances.  Todd Gurley was not good for fantasy in 2016 because his team was so bad, and David Johnson and to some degree Zeke Elliot are experiencing that problem this year.  RBs are also more prone to injury and have generally shorter careers.  WRs are very QB dependent, so it does go both ways, but usually RBs aren't immune to poor QB play either.

All but the most talented backs seem like they are "used up" in about half the time of a high end wide receiver.  In my dynasty leagues, I'd rather be building around DeAndre Hopkins or Keenan Allen than LeVeon Bell or Devanta Freeman (all born withing 4-5 months of each other).  That's looking at it with a little bit of hindsight, but it seems like the RBs just don't last as long.  Maybe it's partly due to the weak RB classes from 2009 until the amazing class of 2015.

 

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