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Ya title games can be tricky as Foster/AP/Trent/RG3 showed me today haha.Its still mostly skill over the bigger course of the season though. When it comes down to just 1 game its always going to involve some luck as players will have up and downs.
Not aware of any fantasy leagues that start only 1 player, so doubt any teams got screwed solely because of him.But if we want to see how Foster plays into the role of skill... spotted him in Texans training camp and thought he looked good for an undrafted. Enough so that I drafted him in dynasty, and any time I had to cut him to make room for bye week fillers, immediately reacquired him so he was on my roster when he finally broke out. Similarly in keeper league, drafted him soon as it looked like he was going to get a shot at being a starter.I've had 3 years of absolutely elite level of performance from him because of my evaluation of him. Do you think 1 bad game in the playoffs means that over the long haul skill in evaluating him hasn't won out overall? Doing so is like saying I'm a better card player than Phil Ivey just because I might play a single hand against him and hit a long shot on the final card to win the hand.And incidentally, I am going to win despite Foster's performance... because I drafted solid throughout my roster, and picked up IDPs with good matchups for my starters who were injured who then put up solid days.
No manual scoring required. I run my leagues on MFL and use it there.Probably several ways to do it. You could use MFL's stand alone FFLM app which has a lot more schedule building tools to do it and upload it.Or you could just generate a couple of schedules and export, dump into excel and combine, and import back into MFL.For a 12 team, 3 division league we do each week you play 2 out of division games and 1 in division game, for a 12 week regular season schedule, leaving us a week 13-15 6 team playoff.So to make the schedule easy, you could first generate a 12 week schedule where teams only play their division (4 times), and export it.Then make another schedule where you play out of division teams only for 12 weeks (3 times each) and export it.Then invert that schedule or shift all the games by a week or 2 so it differs from the previous.Then combine the three schedules into a single file (every game is 1 line so just cut and paste them all in together) and reimport back to MFL. Make sure the latter two schedules don't have any games doubled up where you play the same opponent twice. If you do then swap a game somewhere to alleviate it. I don't think I even needed to do that though, just offsetting the games by 2 weeks as enough.'GordonGekko said:
What skill did it take out of you to draft those guys? The skill of reading? The skill of researching? The skill of knowing where to read and where to research? Congrats, you're a skilled reader and researcher. You're also skilled at Fantasy Golf and Soccer, and you don't even know it yet!I skillfully had my internet connection die here in Asia, which had me leave Kyle Rudolph in my line up when I was going to replace him with Chris Givens. I won today by the margin of their point difference. I got skills!
That's what my league does. Two games against an opponent. One against league average.'GordonGekko said:
I'd ask for a link to this "proof" but we all know you'll just spam the board with another link to your stupid blog.
Knowing and understanding value is not a skill? Managing a team and understanding when it's a good time to buy low or sell high in a certain situation is not a skill? Doing proper research to make the best decisions possible is luck? The fact that doing research actually helps your chances of winning proves exactly that it's more skill than luck. If the game was pretty much all luck--then you could put random names in a bag and draft--and your odds of winning would be the same. I think we could all agree that the odds of winning your fantasy league would probably not occur utilizing that strategy. The people on the "luck" side of this argument are confusing "luck" with small sample size. A lot of people bring up the poker analogy in this debate--and I think there is one very important similarity. A good poker player will tend to get his money in good (he'll typically get his money in when he is the favorite to win against his opponent) more often than not. Over the long run (hundreds or thousands of hands), the law of averages would benefit him/her heavily. This is the same reason why Las Vegas casino's take into account average bet, and how many hours a day one gambles when issuing comps. They would rather have a blackjack player play $25 a hand for 40 hands versus somebody who walks up and bets $1000 in one hand. Every hand that blackjack player plays, the casino is a slight favorite--so their goal is to get you to sit at those tables. The more hands you play--the more they tend to benefit--it's the same concept as a good poker player. In fantasy football, you are looking at a 14 week regular season, and a 2-3 week playoff (where it's one and done),so there is a very small sample size. It is this small sample size that creates the variability and in a sense limits the advantage that "skill" gives a certain owner. Tell a poker professional to play 16 hands at a time and measure his results, versus 1600 hands at a time. You'll find that there will be a lot more variance in the 16 hand results. The point is, don't underestimate skill because of small sample size. Even in a short 16 week season-- one should still prefer to go into each week as the slight favorite and hope his team holds up-- versus believing in pure randomness (which is in essence what luck is). There is a giant difference between the two.
Agreed. And I wish the powers that be would add a horse's patootie to the emoticons as the OP has certainly made one out of himself.Way to humiliate yourself further OP.
I just missed out on my 5th consecutive championship. But...I am not arrogant enough to belive that luck did not play a HUGE role in me winning 4 in a row. Sorry, but if a large amount of skill were involved, then Fantasy Sports would not be as popular as they are.
Well if you are serious, you can here: [link redacted — MT]
Don't think of it as pure randomness. Luck is the difference between two prepared teams. I think you're confusing preparedness with skill. * Could I hire a person off the street who knows nothing about football and pay them to "get prepared" for six months in the offseason...and compete in your league? I bet I could. I don't know if they'd win, but they'd field a competitive team. And they didn't know a thing about football until I plucked them off the street. That's not a skill.'jvdesigns2002 said:
"Being prepared and obtaining information" is pretty much synonymous with "skill." Your definition of the term makes no sense if you don't include those in it.
If anyone can do it, how is it a skill? Unless you mean like "motor skills" or something. They're very important but they're not skills. Playing professional basketball is a skill. I can't pull people off the street and have anyone do it. Now, are the best of the best more prepared, studying film and working on weaknesses? Sure, but anyone could do that part. That's discipline...not skill. And they get paid millions to take the time to do it. It's their skill that makes that discipline worth their while.Being a great public speaker is a skill. You could learn the fundamentals but you still wouldn't be skilled at it. Being a great mechanic is a skill. You could give me every manual known to man, three years and the best tools of the trade...and I doubt I'd be able to change your oil. You could watch The Food Network for a decade and not be a good cook. People play golf for their whole lives and are never any good. Those are skills. But if I can get a stranger to do it by giving them a few months, internet access and the time to learn...that's not a skill.It's certainly not luck, of course. But it's not a skill. It's caring enough to bother and having enough time to devote to it. The ones who do that tend to be more "skilled" than other owners.
I agree with most of this, but some of it is evaluating talent, stats and trends which I'd say does take some skill since not everyone is good at it.
Skill is the development of ability through learning, training, and practice.
People off the street don't all have basketball talent. Talent is inborn. Skill is learned. You can certainly pull people off the street and have them get better at their basketball skills, or any of the other things you mention.
I would agree, but I doubt most fantasy champions have it. I don't think all NFL teams have it. We all know Foster is good. Taking him at 1.01 isn't a skill. Is drafting RG III a skill...if he was your backup to Philip Rivers? Was it shrewd player evaluation to draft Alfred Morris on your bench behind Michael Turner? How about nabbing Danario Alexander off the waiver wire because Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson didn't pan out? Isn't that just information, paying attention and even hanging around these boards to make up for previous mistakes? Taking educated guesses at depth? If you drafted a useless tight end before Andrew Luck...should you be praised for being a good juge of talent or ridiculed for giving the entire league an extra round to select him? Is taking stabs at prospects in the later rounds a skill or just following the game? What is skill at evaluating stats and trends, anyway? If you get 60 percent of your picks right, you're a deity in Vegas. I think they give you your own 800 number when you walk off the plane at McCarran. But if an NFL GM busts on four out of every 10 draft picks, they're either out of a job or interviewing in Oakland. If I can teach a stranger who has never heard of football to be "good" at it, it's not a skill. And by "teach" I don't mean shower them with my brilliance. I mean give them the time and incentive to spend hours a day catching up, learning the game, learning fantasy, and tapping all the right resources. Something anyone could do given enough time and energy. That's not skill. It's worth a tip of your cap...but it's not skill. It's out-working the other owners.
They can be "better" but they won't be competitive. I can make a person who has never heard of American football competitive. Can't do that with basketball. Learning, training and practice can make someone better than they would be without it...but they wouldn't be considered "good" at it. I wouldn't consider them "skilled" at that task. But if you're saying that anyone with a computer (learning, training) and time (practice) can be "skilled" at fantasy football, I'd agree. I think it dilutes what people mean when they say "skill," though.
I work in IT. Some IT people are talented at it; they are geeks, with an intuitive understanding of technology. Others have learned their skills through training and practice over years. At the tasks they're skilled at, the skilled but not talented people can succeed as much as the talented people, but when having to do something new or different, I'll take the talented person over the skilled one any time--just like I'd take David Dodds over your hypothetical person every day and twice on Sunday. Fantasy football isn't static. Two years ago, the NFL changed the rules on contact with receivers. Dodds and other experts have a much higher likelihood of understanding the implications for fantasy football, and understanding which players are likely to benefit, than the guy off the street. That doesn't mean every one of their picks will work it, it means their picks are a lot more likely to work out.Again, Otis' picks couldn't be nearly as bad as they are unless there is a skill to fantasy football.
So we agree that anyone can win a fantasy league if you give them enough time to learn the game and resources? The difference is you call that "skill" and I call it "preparation?" Would you say that "being good" at fantasy football means "I know how to use a computer and am willing to devote the time necessary and stay on top of it more than a typical owner?" If not, what does it mean?Again, ths is winning a title; not running a fantasy-based business. I understand it's a different skill-set with, well, skills.
Let's put it this way. David Dodds and your hypothetical person join 120 12-team fantasy leagues each. How many do you expect Dodds to win? How many do you expect your hypothetical person to win?
I'm not sure that's the most fair comparison, since you're talking about one of the few people who runs a widely successful fantasy-based company. If we could, let's use the average forum member who is celebrating their championship today. They win a lot and their fellow owners would say they're "skilled" at fantasy football. If you give me six months, one practice season and enough money to pay them to make it their "job" to learn fantasy football, I can take a stranger who has never watched one second of professional American football and make them a fantasy contender. Specifically, we could have them each join 100 leagues and then compare playoff percentage and title percentage...and you wouldn't be able to tell who is who just by the numbers.More roughly, I could give your average fantasy doormat a customized cheat sheet, forbid them from making any decisions themselves and vastly improve their fantasy "skill." Let me go a step further: You could give that doormat the last pick in EVERY round of your draft and forbid them from trading...and I'll put them in the playoffs if you let me control nothing but the schedule. At the same time I'll keep the "best" fantasy owner out of the playoffs just for fun. All I have to do is control one random event to overpower their years of "skill" and magically create it in someone else.But with time and energy, you can make anyone a fantasy contender. And if you grade it out over a number of leagues, you won't be able to tell the manufactured champ from the :seasoned NFL fan" champ. Because information, and the time and energy to follow it, will equalize almost every advantage the vet has over the "newbie." Then it's up to luck and the schedule. And that's why it's not skill, but access to information and the interest and energy to follow the league over the course of the season.
Your thing about the schedule is completely irrelevant. You could do the same thing with poker: "You can win every single game in hindsight if you fold when you don't have the better hand, and bet big when you do!" There is a chance factor in fantasy football; that doesn't mean that seasons are decided primarily by luck.Giving someone a custom cheatsheet and refusing to let them make their own decisions doesn't improve their skill; they're not running their team. Someone who has more skill is running their team for them.If it takes someone six months, full-time to get to the level of the average message board poster here at FBG, I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that there's a lot of skill involved in the game.
So according to your logic--anything that does not require athletic ability or manual labor is not a "skill". Daniel Negreanu is not a "skilled" poker player because he just reads books by Doyle brunson and other Poker historians to get good--He's just a "prepared" poker player. Somehow muscle memory is skill--but acquiring knowledge and making good decisions are no longer related to "skill". A "skilled" fantasy football player will draft players in draft positions that give them value. They will make moves just at the right time to strengthen their team at every possible moment. They will look at other teams and see if they are suffering any weaknesses that they can use to their advantage---if you see a team that has injuries at a certain position, but is very strong in another position--you can try to make a move that capitalizes on that situation for yourself. I think you are grossly misinterpreting what skill is versus what luck is. Taking available information, computing it to create a strategy that benefits yourself the most, and acting upon that strategy is indeed a skill. What does an offensive or defensive coordinator in the NFL do?--they look at tapes of their opponents (which are available to the public)--they look at their own personnel and compute this information to design a strategy that puts them in an optimum position to win--this is a skill. I'm a skilled salesman because I know the product, I take into account each of my customers needs, I manage and assess their personalities to come up with a strategy that optimizes my chances of making a sale and proceed accordingly. Fantasy football is a game--and just as in any game--there are players who are more skilled than others--and for the most part--the odds are that these more skilled or better players have a higher chance of winning. The only role that preparation makes in fantasy football is in obtaining the information that we normally would not have access too--I don't have the money or time to fly to each team's practice facility to see how each player is looking. However, this information does not necessarily diagram what I need to do to maximize making my team the best it can be--I still need to come up with the best strategy to make my team as good as possible. We more or less agree on a lot of things--but I disagree that it is all preparation--the skill is in using that information to create a strategy that gives on the best chance of wining. In my world--that is a skill--not just time spent reading what running back looks healthy in practice.
The schedule is not "a" thing. It's THE thing. It's so powerful I can control everything with that one thing. Skill cannot overcome it. But you're right. Not really relevant. I just think it's interesting (total points fan).I'm saying in six months I can take a human being who has never watched professional football and they can compete with "champions" who visit this board. Six months with a person who doesn't know a punt from pass interference against a lifelong NFL fanatic. And by the numbers you wouldn't know who was who. No significant skill involved: Just interest, energy and access.
Negreanu's skill has little to do with the cards. He is a master-- an absolute master-- at reading people. It cannot be taught. You can learn cues and try to glean info from it, but I could study it for 10 years and not be in his league. Totally different.And I disagree with you about sales. I can learn your product until I know it better than you do. I can organize my time and day so I'm seeing 25 percent more people than you. I can set up a schedule so I'm up to date with the industry's trends before you check your Inbox in the morning. Give me time and money and I'm sure I can do all those things as well or better than you.
Where do you think Negreanu learned to be a "master"?--he became a skilled poker player through preparation and hard work. He reads his opponents patterns and assesses situations--including his cards and the way the table perceives him--and comes up with a strategy that optimizes his chance of winning a pot. This process of creating the strategy is the skill. He wasn't a master poker player when he was ten years old--his "skill" increased as he prepared more and expanded his experience. Discounting the hard work he had to put in to obtain his skill is nothing short of insulting. The same thing goes with being a sales person--the skill is not in knowing the product--its about being able to quickly evaluate your potential buyer--and coming up with a strategy that will increase your chances of making the sale. You are confusing skill with preparation. The preparation is just a seed or a tool that leads to skill. I don't understand why you choose to draw this separation between preparation leading to becoming more "skilled" at something. The information that is out there in regards to the fantasy world is available to everybody--so how come everybody that utilizes it has completely different results when it comes to their leagues? The reason is because the information in itself doesn't make somebody a good fantasy owner--it's how the owner uses that information to benefit them the most---this process is the skill. The fact that you can teach a novice to be better at something in a few months is not only obvious--but it doesn't strengthen your point of view one bit. A blacksmith can teach a novice for a few months and that novice will acquire some skill in metal fabrication. Just because something can be taught---doesn't mean it is not a skill--so what is your point exactly?
Any card game or dice game can be "controlled" if you can control the cards or dice in retrospect; that's really not an interesting question.
In six months I can take a human being who has never done IT support and turn them into am IT support person, by forcing them to develop their skills. It is only by forcing them to develop their skills that they can improve.
So will this be the guy who starts this thread next year when AP gets injured, Cleveland can't run the ball and Dez is injured all year?'Eminence said:I draftedrew BreesAdrian PetersonTrent RichardsonRoddy WhiteDez Bryant...as the base of my team. These are the guys who produced and I just filled in the holes elsewhere. That was plan, that was skill. Your draft is 90% of your season. It's a lottery ticket. Hit early and often, the later rounds don't matter too much...
The only thing nerdy is the assumption that somebody with more skill ALWAYS wins. Nobody who has argued that skill is a major component of fantasy sports is arguing that skilled players always win--the argument is that a skilled owner is more likely to win than a non-skilled one. Luck is buying a lottery ticket and winning--it's purely random chance. With fantasy sports--you have some control over who you draft, the moves you make during the season, and the lineups you submit--if you are a skilled player--your lineup should have a better chance of winning in the long run. This doesn't mean that some opponents team can't go off against you in a given week. If skill had nothing to do with it--then you should basically have a computer randomly do your draft,and randomly set your lineups--remove the skill element completely and see how your team does. Saying that skill has no place in it is quite possibly the nerdiest thing in this entire post. Actually, I take that back--calling a bunch of people that you have most likely never met "nerds" actually takes the cake. If you can't type a post without calling people names and contributing anything useful--perhaps you shouldn't even comment.
I agree with this!
