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Fantasy Football's future (1 Viewer)

Do you actually have any evidence to support the case of guys built like Hardy busting?
The only evidence I can offer is that there isn't a possession WR with his body type succeeding in the NFL right now. So my case against Hardy is similar to my case against McFadden: if he succeeds, he'll be the first of his kind in the modern NFL. I agree that BMI is harder to interpret with WR prospects than it is with backs, but I think we might eventually find a way to use it. What I initially did was make a list of the top WR's in the league and break them up according to BMI. I got the following results:

Marvin Harrison - 25.1

Chad Johnson - 25.3

Amani Toomer - 25.4

Isaac Bruce - 25.5

Randy Moss - 25.6

Torry Holt - 25.8

Donald Driver - 25.8

TJ Houshmandzadeh - 26.3

Santonio Holmes - 26.4

Reggie Wayne - 26.9

Braylon Edwards - 26.9

Javon Walker - 26.9

Laveranues Coles - 26.9

Terrell Owens - 27.2

Steve Smith - 27.3

Terry Glenn - 27.3

Joe Horn - 27.4

Plaxico Burress - 27.5

Derrick Mason - 27.5

Joey Galloway - 27.5

Greg Jennings - 27.5

Muhsin Muhammad - 27.6

Andre Johnson - 27.7

Hines Ward - 27.8

Roddy White - 27.9

Brandon Marshall - 28.0

Marques Colston - 28.1

Jerricho Cotchery - 28.1

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2

Lee Evans - 28.3

Dwayne Bowe - 28.4

Marty Booker - 28.5

Anquan Boldin - 28.6

Santana Moss - 28.7

Chris Chambers - 29.3

As you can see, these numbers are hard to interpret, but I think we can possibly draw a few loose conclusions:

- Every successful WR with a BMI under 26.5 is a finesse type WR who succeeds because of speed and overall mobility. Therefore we might be able to include that any power type WR who succeeds because of strength and RAC would need to have a BMI greater than 26.5. I would recommend discriminating against power WR's with a BMI below 26.5. That's why I put out to the warning on Hardy. He's a power style WR with a finesse body type.

- Speed WR's come in all sizes. While it's true that every WR with a BMI under 26.5 is a finesse type WR, it's also true that there are successful high BMI speed guys like Santana Moss (28.7), Lee Evans (28.3), Greg Jennings (27.5), Joey Galloway (27.5), and Terry Glenn (27.3). I would therefore recommend ignoring BMI for receivers with a speed/quickness playing style. It doesn't seem relevant.

That's about all I feel comfortable saying at this point in time. Obviously I'm in a very preliminary stage with this stuff. To me what's most useful about this data is the ability to break WR's into distinct categories based on BMI and to compare prospects to players in those categories.

For example, Earl Bennett is considered a possession (power) type WR. He is compared to guys like Chambers, Cotchery, and Booker. You would expect his BMI to be similar. Sure enough, Bennett has a 28.8 BMI, which puts him snugly between Cotchery (28.1) and Chambers (29.1). I wouldn't upgrade him because of this, but I wouldn't downgrade him either.

On the flipside, James Hardy is a possession (power) type WR. He is compared to guys like Colston, Burress, and Marshall. You would expect his BMI to be similar. Unfortunately, Hardy's 25.5 BMI is well below that of Burress (27.5), Marshall (28.0), and Colston (28.1). I would consider downgrading him because of this.

Here's the BMI for the prominent 2008 rooks:

DeSean Jackson - 24.5

Harry Douglas - 24.5

Jerome Simpson - 25.1

Mario Manningham - 25.2

James Hardy - 25.5

Lavelle Hawkins - 26.1

Limas Sweed - 26.4

Donnie Avery - 26.8

Keenan Burton - 27.1

Eddie Royal - 27.2

Dexter Jackson - 27.3

Andre Caldwell - 27.5

Malcolm Kelly - 27.6

Devin Thomas - 27.8

Jordy Nelson - 27.9

Early Doucet - 28.3

Earl Bennett - 28.8
Hardy is coming out a year early as a junior. He's only 22 years old. I don't know when he attained his hieght but its doubtful he'll keep growing in hieght but I would be dollars to donuts that he will be able to layer in muscle and girth to his frame. I don't see Hardy in the same Somatotype body grouping as DeSean Jackson. The Three Types

Sheldon’s “somatotypes” and their supposed associated psychological traits can be summarised as follows:

Ectomorphic: characterized by long and thin muscles/limbs and low fat storage; usually referred to as slim.

Mesomorphic: characterized by large bones, solid torso, low fat levels, wide shoulders with a narrow waist.

Endomorphic: characterized by increased fat storage, a wide waist and a large bone structure.

I think at his age and the fact that he probably could have reached his height within the last 2 to 3 years that his girth hasn't caught-up yet to his frame. DeSean Jackson has been near his optimal hieght for a few years and his wieght has not changed at all in years. I would bet if you looked up Hardy's wieght VS DeSean Jackson's weight you would see Jackson has not budged but Hardy had added weight. It takes time to layer in muscle, his frame has room for more muscle. The other veteran WRs you listed were not Juniors coming in a year early to the league as is Hardy. So you should compensate for 'reasonably expected' added weight with a tall and YOUNG WR prospect like Hardy.

Oh and Joey Galloway not only possed phenomenal speed he also benched 400 lbs when coming out. I wouldn't ever label him as just a 'speed' WR.

 
Beantown said:
Why no Jimmy Clausen ranked at all, not good enough for you to make the list or an oversight? I think he would have to be ranked for Sophomore QBs somewhere if not the very top?
He's definitely a guy to watch. He isn't long for the top 5 if he can lead Notre Dame to a turnaround this year. We didn't learn much about Claussen going into last season given the atrocious play of his teammates. Then again, he will be given every opportunity to succeed in the coming years, so we will find out soon weather he's got the stuff.It's not a huge knock on Claussen to be left out of the top 5 given that Bradford, Locker and Kaepernick were all very impressive in their debut seasons. Riley was a highly regarded prospect who has impressed coaches to the point that he earned the chance to take over for Nate Longshore right away this coming season. Mallet is another guy who was highly regarded out of high school and was impressive in limited duty. Since he's redshirting next season, I might drop him from the list if another sophomore shows significant improvement.
 
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Last preseason update (see 1st post).

If anyone is interested in a college fantasy football league, I am looking for a couple owners to fill spots. League is in it's 3rd year of existence. Basic Big 6 conference player pool (+Notre Dame). Email me at aposulli@gmail.com

 
The top 4 looks pretty good. I'd probably rank them in a different order, but those are the 4 best prospects as of right now. I think Harvin and DHB will be high picks in the NFL draft, so I'd probably take them over those lesser talents at RB (Murray, Spiller, Davis) until those guys prove they're also first round caliber players. The RB4-6 range is where I expect to see a lot of shuffling this year, with some unknowns rising up the charts like Forte, Smith, and Johnson did this past season.

One guy I picked in the BYB3 draft who doesn't get a lot of love from the draft gurus is WR Jarett Dillard of Rice. If he was on Michigan he'd be a household name and everyone would be talking about him as a surefire top 20 pick. As it stands now, he seems to be flying way under the radar. His stats are just sick. He has 35 TD catches in his last 25 games despite only being 5'11". He's like some weird cross between Moss and Harrison. People will say he's too small, but he's listed at 5'11" and 185 pounds. If that's accurate then he's plenty to big to play at the next level. I think when the dust settles teams will realize what a good football player he is and he'll be a steal as a late first round pick.

 
WRs

Louis Murphy

Juaquin Iglesias
Maybe it's just me, but these two guys reek of mediocrity. I've watched some of their games and I've never seen either of them make special plays. Basically, if I didn't know they were NFL prospects, I wouldn't know they were NFL prospects. They seem very likely to tumble into the Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney/Taylor Jacobs abyss at the next level.
 
WRs

Louis Murphy

Juaquin Iglesias
Maybe it's just me, but these two guys reek of mediocrity. I've watched some of their games and I've never seen either of them make special plays. Basically, if I didn't know they were NFL prospects, I wouldn't know they were NFL prospects. They seem very likely to tumble into the Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney/Taylor Jacobs abyss at the next level.
This Senior class is absolutely terrible relative to other seasons. Didn't help that so many underclassmen came out in 2008. I would take Spiller (Clemson RB), Gresham (Oklahoma TE), Gilyard (Cincinati WR) over just about any Senior in this class. That said, Murphy offers the most upside of anyone in this Senior WR class simply because of his measurables. He doesn't have bad hands either, but it's obvious he wasn't very productive at Florida. Fact is, given the weapons they had on that offense, he was no better than their 3rd option on every play, on an offense where the vast majority of the plays were to Option 1 or 2 (Tebow, Harvin). He was hobbled this year and had surgery to clean up his knee, which worries me a little bit. If he runs a sub-4.4 on his pro day, I don't see how NFL teams don't make him a 1st day pick.

I liked Iglesias just as much as I liked Malcolm Kelly for awhile in '07. He had a relatively consistent career and reminded me alot of another OU-alumn- Mark Clayton. He is a prototypical #2 WR in the NFL who should put up decent numbers in a good offense. Work ethic is the only question.

 
WRs

Louis Murphy

Juaquin Iglesias
Maybe it's just me, but these two guys reek of mediocrity. I've watched some of their games and I've never seen either of them make special plays. Basically, if I didn't know they were NFL prospects, I wouldn't know they were NFL prospects. They seem very likely to tumble into the Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney/Taylor Jacobs abyss at the next level.
This Senior class is absolutely terrible relative to other seasons. Didn't help that so many underclassmen came out in 2008. I would take Spiller (Clemson RB), Gresham (Oklahoma TE), Gilyard (Cincinati WR) over just about any Senior in this class. That said, Murphy offers the most upside of anyone in this Senior WR class simply because of his measurables. He doesn't have bad hands either, but it's obvious he wasn't very productive at Florida. Fact is, given the weapons they had on that offense, he was no better than their 3rd option on every play, on an offense where the vast majority of the plays were to Option 1 or 2 (Tebow, Harvin). He was hobbled this year and had surgery to clean up his knee, which worries me a little bit. If he runs a sub-4.4 on his pro day, I don't see how NFL teams don't make him a 1st day pick.

I liked Iglesias just as much as I liked Malcolm Kelly for awhile in '07. He had a relatively consistent career and reminded me alot of another OU-alumn- Mark Clayton. He is a prototypical #2 WR in the NFL who should put up decent numbers in a good offense. Work ethic is the only question.
I don't generally ascribe to the belief that all players from X school are overrated, but these two guys seem like shining examples of mediocre talents whose draft profiles have been inflated because they happen to play for a major program. I heard Bloom use the phrase "trump card" to describe the trait that distinguishes a player from the mediocre masses. Anquan Boldin has power and athleticism. Steve Smith has speed and quickness. Marques Colston has size and coordination. But when I look at guys like Murphy and Iglesias, I don't see a trump card. I don't see any kind of special skill(s) that will allow them to succeed against NFL defensive backs. I would much rather have someone like Jarett Dillard, Brandon Tate, or Aaron Kelly. Those guys have shown flashes of special talent, whereas Iglesias and Murphy are virtually indistinguishable from the likes of Taylor Jacobs, Reche Caldwell, and Travis Wilson.

 
WRs

Louis Murphy

Juaquin Iglesias
Maybe it's just me, but these two guys reek of mediocrity. I've watched some of their games and I've never seen either of them make special plays. Basically, if I didn't know they were NFL prospects, I wouldn't know they were NFL prospects. They seem very likely to tumble into the Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney/Taylor Jacobs abyss at the next level.
This Senior class is absolutely terrible relative to other seasons. Didn't help that so many underclassmen came out in 2008. I would take Spiller (Clemson RB), Gresham (Oklahoma TE), Gilyard (Cincinati WR) over just about any Senior in this class. That said, Murphy offers the most upside of anyone in this Senior WR class simply because of his measurables. He doesn't have bad hands either, but it's obvious he wasn't very productive at Florida. Fact is, given the weapons they had on that offense, he was no better than their 3rd option on every play, on an offense where the vast majority of the plays were to Option 1 or 2 (Tebow, Harvin). He was hobbled this year and had surgery to clean up his knee, which worries me a little bit. If he runs a sub-4.4 on his pro day, I don't see how NFL teams don't make him a 1st day pick.

I liked Iglesias just as much as I liked Malcolm Kelly for awhile in '07. He had a relatively consistent career and reminded me alot of another OU-alumn- Mark Clayton. He is a prototypical #2 WR in the NFL who should put up decent numbers in a good offense. Work ethic is the only question.
I don't generally ascribe to the belief that all players from X school are overrated, but these two guys seem like shining examples of mediocre talents whose draft profiles have been inflated because they happen to play for a major program. I heard Bloom use the phrase "trump card" to describe the trait that distinguishes a player from the mediocre masses. Anquan Boldin has power and athleticism. Steve Smith has speed and quickness. Marques Colston has size and coordination. But when I look at guys like Murphy and Iglesias, I don't see a trump card. I don't see any kind of special skill(s) that will allow them to succeed against NFL defensive backs. I would much rather have someone like Jarett Dillard, Brandon Tate, or Aaron Kelly. Those guys have shown flashes of special talent, whereas Iglesias and Murphy are virtually indistinguishable from the likes of Taylor Jacobs, Reche Caldwell, and Travis Wilson.
I am a big fan of Tate, although his injury was more serious than Muphy's, so I'm a little cautious in ranking him.Kelly does have excellent ball skills but his production fell off the map this past season. It seemed like a lost season for Clemson, but it didn't look like he had enough speed or quickness to separate enough from college DBs which is going to be a huge challenge for him in the NFL.

Dillard also should have a big problem separating from pro cornerbacks who are both bigger and faster than he will ever be. I see why you like him as he makes the absolute most out of the physical talents he has. He should stick around the league as a slot receiver and could develop in a Kevin Curtis-type.

 
Nice stuff.

For the overall top 10 are you guessing what their 40 time will be or are you getting it from a source? I'd be flabbergasted if Moreno runs a faster 40 than McCoy.

 
Nice stuff. For the overall top 10 are you guessing what their 40 time will be or are you getting it from a source? I'd be flabbergasted if Moreno runs a faster 40 than McCoy.
Agreed, but I think Moreno will run under a 4.5I think I got them from nfldraftscout.com
 
Thanks for the update. What is the story on the H. Nicks motivation knock?
Of the games I've seen Nicks play, I didn't see 100% effort on many plays. No question the guy has talent. That's the first thing you notice- at times he looked like a man among boys. Sure, his QB was terrible, which would explain the somewhat inconsistent statistics. But I also noticed how he often wasn't exploding out of his cuts, and using his body to shield defenders rather than separate using his speed. Also I should mention that I'm not necessarily comparing his lack of motivation to Jerry Porter, just more his skill set. In other words, t's not red flag- just something that stuck with me in my evaluation. He's a guy that could sneak into the 1st Round of the NFL draft with a better-than-expected combine.
 
Thanks for the update. What is the story on the H. Nicks motivation knock?
Of the games I've seen Nicks play, I didn't see 100% effort on many plays. No question the guy has talent. That's the first thing you notice- at times he looked like a man among boys. Sure, his QB was terrible, which would explain the somewhat inconsistent statistics. But I also noticed how he often wasn't exploding out of his cuts, and using his body to shield defenders rather than separate using his speed. Also I should mention that I'm not necessarily comparing his lack of motivation to Jerry Porter, just more his skill set. In other words, t's not red flag- just something that stuck with me in my evaluation. He's a guy that could sneak into the 1st Round of the NFL draft with a better-than-expected combine.
I would disagree here. I have watched nearly all of Nicks' games and would see it as the other way around. He isn't blessed with the most athleticism, but he works his butt off to get open, is not afraid to take hits, and has tremendous hands. His not exploding out of his cuts are not due to his lack of effort, but instead due to his lack of athleticism. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to get open in the NFL, but with his physicality, I don't see it being as much a damper as some.
 
Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation

TEs

85-78 Perennial TE1

77-68 Potential TE1

67-58 Potential fantasy backup

57-50 Longshot fantasy contributor

[68] James Casey, Rice*

[67] Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

[63] James Cook, South Carolina*

[59] Chase Coffman, Missouri

[57] Shawn Nelson, Southern Mississippi

[55] Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

[52] Cornelius Ingram, Florida
Pre-combine rankings listed above for reference.With the exception of Pettigrew (more of a plodding big guy) and Coffman (injured), the TEs on this list were expected to impress scouts with their athleticism at the combine. Most didn't disappoint. Casey and Beckum measured a bit shorter than some expected, but also stronger (bench press) than most would've thought. Cook, Nelson and Ingram meanwhile impressed with their 40 and drill times.

Casey's stock remained high. His ceiling may be limited due to his lack of elite size and athleticism, but his strength, effort, and versatility are his best attributes.

Pettigrew was a bit slower than expected, but he remains a potential top 10-20 TE based on his size and ability to block which will keep him on the field on most downs.

Cook measured and performed like a prototypical receiving TE. His high marks have put him on the verge of being ranked as a potential TE1.

Nelson also flashed some elite athleticism in his drills. Given his improvement from season's end until now, it isn't a stretch to consider his fantasy potential on par with any of these guys.

Beckum seemed to come to the combine to prove he is more than just a finesse TE. Although he was visibly and measurably stronger than most thought, his decision to not run a 40 was questionable. He is still a bit raw, but he proved he was willing to work to become not only a receiving TE, but a well-rounded NFL TE.

Ingram looked particularly good in drills considering he hasn't played football in over a year. As a receiving TE, his size and speed combo is as good as any at the position, which leads me to believe he has top 10-20 NFL fantasy potential.

Cam Morrah from Cal was another riser after his combine performance. He doesn't have the overall package as some of the top guys on this list, but he displayed great strength and speed which will give him a chance to contribute as a receiving TE in the NFL, possibly in year 1.

 
Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation

TEs

85-78 Perennial TE1

77-68 Potential TE1

67-58 Potential fantasy backup

57-50 Longshot fantasy contributor

[68] James Casey, Rice*

[67] Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

[63] James Cook, South Carolina*

[59] Chase Coffman, Missouri

[57] Shawn Nelson, Southern Mississippi

[55] Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

[52] Cornelius Ingram, Florida
Pre-combine rankings listed above for reference.With the exception of Pettigrew (more of a plodding big guy) and Coffman (injured), the TEs on this list were expected to impress scouts with their athleticism at the combine. Most didn't disappoint. Casey and Beckum measured a bit shorter than some expected, but also stronger (bench press) than most would've thought. Cook, Nelson and Ingram meanwhile impressed with their 40 and drill times.

Casey's stock remained high. His ceiling may be limited due to his lack of elite size and athleticism, but his strength, effort, and versatility are his best attributes.

Pettigrew was a bit slower than expected, but he remains a potential top 10-20 TE based on his size and ability to block which will keep him on the field on most downs.

Cook measured and performed like a prototypical receiving TE. His high marks have put him on the verge of being ranked as a potential TE1.

Nelson also flashed some elite athleticism in his drills. Given his improvement from season's end until now, it isn't a stretch to consider his fantasy potential on par with any of these guys.

Beckum seemed to come to the combine to prove he is more than just a finesse TE. Although he was visibly and measurably stronger than most thought, his decision to not run a 40 was questionable. He is still a bit raw, but he proved he was willing to work to become not only a receiving TE, but a well-rounded NFL TE.

Ingram looked particularly good in drills considering he hasn't played football in over a year. As a receiving TE, his size and speed combo is as good as any at the position, which leads me to believe he has top 10-20 NFL fantasy potential.

Cam Morrah from Cal was another riser after his combine performance. He doesn't have the overall package as some of the top guys on this list, but he displayed great strength and speed which will give him a chance to contribute as a receiving TE in the NFL, possibly in year 1.
Do you see any of them - Casey and Cook in particular - being viable starters in non-TE-required leagues?
 
For those who watched the combine ...this thread needs more Pat White
I had him on my list of WRs in my final pre-combine list, but before that I had him basically in the same cluster as Bomar/Harper/Painter and co. among QBs.Given his size, It'll be a stretch for any NFL team to hand him a starting job. He will have to work his butt off for a team to trust him as a primary backup, at which point he'd most likely need an injury to the starter for an opportunity at regular PT at QB.Jeff Garcia has proven that size isn't everything as an NFL starter, but he at least has a perfect skillset for a WCO, which White does not. (lack of touch)In interviews, White has said he is more willing to do whatever it takes to succeed in the NFL, weather it's play WR or return kicks- which IMO is what he is best suited for... or at least, it's what gives him the most potential to be a fantasy factor.His 40 time at least confirms he has NFL WR-caliber long speed, but his inexperience will make him nothing more than a project in terms of NFL teams looking for an every-down WR.At this point, I can see him contributing early as a specialist and perhaps even a wildcat option on a team with the guts to run with that formation once in awhile. In terms of upside, I would say he is a slower version of Steve Breaston.
 
Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation

TEs

85-78 Perennial TE1

77-68 Potential TE1

67-58 Potential fantasy backup

57-50 Longshot fantasy contributor

[68] James Casey, Rice*

[67] Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

[63] James Cook, South Carolina*

[59] Chase Coffman, Missouri

[57] Shawn Nelson, Southern Mississippi

[55] Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

[52] Cornelius Ingram, Florida
Pre-combine rankings listed above for reference.With the exception of Pettigrew (more of a plodding big guy) and Coffman (injured), the TEs on this list were expected to impress scouts with their athleticism at the combine. Most didn't disappoint. Casey and Beckum measured a bit shorter than some expected, but also stronger (bench press) than most would've thought. Cook, Nelson and Ingram meanwhile impressed with their 40 and drill times.

Casey's stock remained high. His ceiling may be limited due to his lack of elite size and athleticism, but his strength, effort, and versatility are his best attributes.

Pettigrew was a bit slower than expected, but he remains a potential top 10-20 TE based on his size and ability to block which will keep him on the field on most downs.

Cook measured and performed like a prototypical receiving TE. His high marks have put him on the verge of being ranked as a potential TE1.

Nelson also flashed some elite athleticism in his drills. Given his improvement from season's end until now, it isn't a stretch to consider his fantasy potential on par with any of these guys.

Beckum seemed to come to the combine to prove he is more than just a finesse TE. Although he was visibly and measurably stronger than most thought, his decision to not run a 40 was questionable. He is still a bit raw, but he proved he was willing to work to become not only a receiving TE, but a well-rounded NFL TE.

Ingram looked particularly good in drills considering he hasn't played football in over a year. As a receiving TE, his size and speed combo is as good as any at the position, which leads me to believe he has top 10-20 NFL fantasy potential.

Cam Morrah from Cal was another riser after his combine performance. He doesn't have the overall package as some of the top guys on this list, but he displayed great strength and speed which will give him a chance to contribute as a receiving TE in the NFL, possibly in year 1.
Do you see any of them - Casey and Cook in particular - being viable starters in non-TE-required leagues?
Earlier today I took another look at the tiering system I was using for TEs and felt it was a bit off.As I take a second look, all of these guys may have borderline top 10 TE potential, if not just because there is a dearth of top-flight receiving TEs in the NFL right now (at least, based on last years' numbers).

Think of Casey as a guy with Dallas Clark/Chris Cooley upside, and Cook with upside just below where Dustin Keller is headed. Pettigrew has limited upside, but if everything comes together for him, he can ball like Alge Crumpler (whose stats were inflated due to the offense in ATL, and lack of decent WRs).

Coffman, Nelson, Beckum and Ingram are looking like TEs who could put up Heath Miller-esque numbers in 1-2 yrs., with a bit more upside. So probably no better than your average top 25-30 FF WR.

ETA: I meant top 25-30 WRs in a given nfl season, not among incoming rookie WRs.

 
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Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation

QBs

90-83 Potential QB1 in Year 1

82-73 Potential QB1 by Year 3

72-63 Potential fantasy backup

62-50 Longshot fantasy contributor

[75] Matthew Stafford, Georgia*

[74] Josh Freeman, Kansas State*

[72] Mark Sanchez, USC*

[63] Nate Davis, Ball State*

[56] Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State

[54] Cullen Harper, Clemson

[53] Brian Hoyer, Michigan State

[53] Graham Harrell, Texas Tech

[53] Hunter Cantwell, Louisville

[53] Steven McGee, Texas A&M

[53] Curtis Painter, Purdue

[52] John Parker Wilson, Alabama

[51] Nathan Brown, Central Arkansas

[51] Mike Reilly, Central Washington

[50] Tom Brandstater, Fresno State
Pre-combine rankings listed above for referenceAfter their performances at the combine, Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman remain the only other potential fantasy stars in this class. As if it wasn't obvious enough that this QB was subpar at best, the best thrower at the combine was Pat White- a guy who almost certainly won't become an exclusive NFL pocket passer.

With Stafford absent frommost drills, his stock won't waiver. He could be given the chance to start from Day 1 on his new team, but more likely won't become a guy coaches will fully trust until his 2nd season. Upside is there to become a top 10 QB within a few years.

Freeman looked inconsistent throwing the ball and did not do anything to suggest he will be ready to start in his first season in the NFL. He has the arm and size that top flight QBs possess, so he shouldn't fall too far in these rankings.

Sanchez impressed with his interviews and overall attitude in Indy. Though he did not display any elite ability in throwing the ball in drills, scouts may have underestimated his maturity at this point.

There was no Joe Flacco this year in Indy. In other words, no QB flashed elite arm strength or accuracy in drills to warrant separation between the lower tier QBs. For now, I'd probably only upgrade McGee who showcased his athleticism, made all the throws.

Pat White, though he may never make it as a pocket passer, warrants a ranking in this lower tier.

 
For those who watched the combine ...this thread needs more Pat White
I had him on my list of WRs in my final pre-combine list, but before that I had him basically in the same cluster as Bomar/Harper/Painter and co. among QBs.Given his size, It'll be a stretch for any NFL team to hand him a starting job. He will have to work his butt off for a team to trust him as a primary backup, at which point he'd most likely need an injury to the starter for an opportunity at regular PT at QB.Jeff Garcia has proven that size isn't everything as an NFL starter, but he at least has a perfect skillset for a WCO, which White does not. (lack of touch)In interviews, White has said he is more willing to do whatever it takes to succeed in the NFL, weather it's play WR or return kicks- which IMO is what he is best suited for... or at least, it's what gives him the most potential to be a fantasy factor.His 40 time at least confirms he has NFL WR-caliber long speed, but his inexperience will make him nothing more than a project in terms of NFL teams looking for an every-down WR.At this point, I can see him contributing early as a specialist and perhaps even a wildcat option on a team with the guts to run with that formation once in awhile. In terms of upside, I would say he is a slower version of Steve Breaston.
Senneca Wallace?
 
For those who watched the combine ...this thread needs more Pat White
I had him on my list of WRs in my final pre-combine list, but before that I had him basically in the same cluster as Bomar/Harper/Painter and co. among QBs.Given his size, It'll be a stretch for any NFL team to hand him a starting job. He will have to work his butt off for a team to trust him as a primary backup, at which point he'd most likely need an injury to the starter for an opportunity at regular PT at QB.Jeff Garcia has proven that size isn't everything as an NFL starter, but he at least has a perfect skillset for a WCO, which White does not. (lack of touch)In interviews, White has said he is more willing to do whatever it takes to succeed in the NFL, weather it's play WR or return kicks- which IMO is what he is best suited for... or at least, it's what gives him the most potential to be a fantasy factor.His 40 time at least confirms he has NFL WR-caliber long speed, but his inexperience will make him nothing more than a project in terms of NFL teams looking for an every-down WR.At this point, I can see him contributing early as a specialist and perhaps even a wildcat option on a team with the guts to run with that formation once in awhile. In terms of upside, I would say he is a slower version of Steve Breaston.
Senneca Wallace?
Sure, why not? Problem is Wallace was never good enough at either position. White might be a better passer than Wallace was at this point in his career.
 
First Tier

1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

2. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

4. Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa

5. Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

6. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

7. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

8. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

Second Tier

9. Donald Brown, RB, UConn

10. Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

11. Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

13. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

Third Tier

14. Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice

15. Kory Sheets, RB, Purdue

16. Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina

17. Andre Brown, RB, NC State

18. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

19. Cedric Peerman, RB, Virginia

20. Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina

21. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia

22. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

23. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

24. Deon Butler, WR, Penn State
EBF's rankings (2/24/09) listed above for reference.I can definitly agree there are at least 13 guys (first 2 tiers) worth considering over any other players. I would also throw in Rashard Jennings and Andre Brown because they could carry the load in the right situation. And Brian Robiskie because I think he has the tools and overall profile to produce like Hines Ward.

A preliminary look at my top 15 after the Combine...

[86] LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh**

[85] Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech**

[85] Knowshon Moreno, Georgia**

[83] Jeremy Maclin, Missouri**

[81] Chris Wells, Ohio State*

[80] Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland*

[77] Donald Brown, UConn*

[77] Percy Harvin, Florida*

[77] Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina*

[76] Kenny Britt, Rutgers*

[74] Matthew Stafford, Georgia*

[74] Shonn Greene, Iowa*

[73] Rashad Jennings, Liberty

[72] Mark Sanchez, USC*

[72] Andre Brown, North Carolina State

[72] Brain Robiskie, Ohio State

A few notes about the rest...

QBs: Josh Freeman deserves a mention given his arm and size, though he might be years away from contributing. Nate Davis is in the same range as Colt Brennan was last year, and sadly he's the 4th best QB prospect. None of the guys after Davis have a special enough arm to be considered potential fantasy contributors at this point. Unless that is you consider Pat White.... :unsure:

RBs: As much as I like some of these middle/lower tier RBs, none of them stand out enough. Mike Goodson and Bernard Scott are arguably the guys with the most talent and potential to put up nice numbers, but they also have the biggest doubts about their character. James Davis and Korey Sheets are good all-around backs, but have no special qualities. Jeremiah Johnson and Javon Ringer are both short and have durability concerns. Glenn Coffee, Cedric Peerman, and Ian Johnson lack ideal bulk. Javarris Williams and Gartrell Johnson will only succeed in part-time/goal-line roles. Arian Foster and P.J. Hill have already peaked. Some DEEP sleepers to consider: Aaron Brown, Devin Moore, Marlon Lucky, Branden Ore, Chris Ogbonnaya, Tyrell Sutton, Brad Lester, Marcus Thigpen, Tyrell Fenroy, and Keegan Herring.

WRs: Right now, I have a list of exactly 20 WRs that I would consider drafting after those listed in my top 15 overall. It would not surprise me to see one or two of them be the next Eddie Royal, but I wouldn't really go out on a limb to get any one of them at this point. Speak of the devil, Kenny McKinley is one guy who will be climbing my board after the combine. He lacks bulk, but has the overall profile of a guy who could perform like Royal. Interesting to note that he and TE Jared Cook both appear to have exceeded expectations given their lack of production at South Carolina (Spurrier making pass-catchers look bad???). Tiquan Underwood also performed well and has a similar profile, but his hands will knock him down a peg. Mike Thomas and Deon Butler are very similar in size and speed, but their height is a going to be a big hurdle for them in trying to crack an NFL starting lineup. Ditto Sammie Stroughter, who might be the most natural receiver in this tier, but not as quick. The list of boom-or-bust guys is long, including Brandon Tate, Derrick Williams, Louis Murphy, Kevin Ogletree, Ramses Barden, Mike Wallace, Mohammad Massaquoi. A couple guys who I think have a GOOD chance to crack an NFL starting lineup as a #2 posession-type are Juaquin Iglesias and Jarett Dillard. Demtrius Byrd, Brooks Foster, Brandon Gibson, and Austin Collie could fall into that category if they land in the right situation. A couple guys who have decent size and have shown flashes- Aaron Kelly and Patrick Turner- could make it, although their attitude needs to get better. We could learn a few more things on Pro days... Foster, Turner, and Gibson did not run the 40 at the combine, and Tate has yet to prove to the scouts that he is over his injury.

TEs: A case can be made for a few guys, but none of them are surefire fantasy stars so it's impossible to rank them in the top 15 overall. Jared Cook helped himself the most and could be the next Dustin Keller. James Casey could make a few top 20 dynasty rookie lists (I'm looking at you Bloom) :) , but he simply does not have the overall profile to put the fear of god in an NFL defense ala Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. Brandon Pettigrew's case may be the most interesting as he could be used mostly as a blocker ala Daniel Graham. But if he can become a more natural pass-catcher, coaches may use him like Alge Crumpler. If he gets impatient with his role ala Vernon Davis, he won't see the field one way or the other. I still see the upside, and I'm not dropping him too far even though lots of people seem to be knocking him for his added value of being a good blocker. Shawn Nelson, Travis Beckum, Chase Coffman, and Cornelius Ingram round out this deep class of pass-catching TEs, and deserve a draft pick in any TE-required league.

 
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Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation (PPR)

WRs

95-92 Perennial WR1

91-84 Potential WR1

83-76 Potential WR2

75-68 Potential WR3

67-55 Potential fantasy backup

54-50 Longshot fantasy contributor

[87] Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech**

[83] Jeremy Maclin, Missouri**

[79] Percy Harvin, Florida*

[79] Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland*

[78] Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina*

[75] Kenny Britt, Rutgers*

[71] Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma

[70] Brain Robiskie, Ohio State

[69] Louis Murphy, Florida

[68] Derrick Wiliams, Penn State

[67] Mohamed Massaquoi, Georgia

[66] Ramses Barden, Cal Poly

[65] Brandon Tate, North Carolina

[65] Brandon Gibson, Washington State

[64] Jarett Dillard, Rice

[63] Mike Thomas, Arizona

[63] Austin Collie, BYU*

[62] Mike Wallace, Mississippi

[62] Brooks Foster, North Carolina

[60] Aaron Kelly, Clemson

[60] Kenny McKinley, South Carolina

[59] Demetrius Byrd, LSU

[59] Darius Passmore, Marshall

[58] Quan Cosby, Texas

[58] Sammie Stroughter, Oregon State

[58] Patrick Turner, Southern Cal

[58] Deon Butler, Penn State

[56] Kevin Ogletree, Virginia*

[56] Dominique Edison, Stephen F. Austin

[55] Pat White, West Virginia

[55] Tiquan Underwood, Rutgers

[53] Greg Orton, Purdue

[53] Jeremy Childs, Boise State*

[52] Marko Mitchell, Nevada

[52] Brennan Marion, Tulsa

[51] Johnny Knox, Abilene Christian

[51] Manuel Johnson, Oklahoma

[50] Jamarko Simmons, Western Michigan

[50] Taurus Johnson, South Florida

[50] Andrew Means, Indiana*

[50] Jordan Norwood, Penn State

[50] Quentin Chaney, Oklahoma
Pre-Combine rankings listed above for reference.The group was impressive as a whole compared to the RBs at the combine with most guys clocking at or around where they were expected in the 40 yard dash. Robiskie gained the most at the combine, while guys like Heyward-Bey, Butler, and Ogletree were more than impressive.

Crabtree remains atop the mountain here as expected. I might have overrated his game a bit as a whole, but he is probably the #1 overall guy on my list after the draft.

Maclin couldn't do anything but hurt his stock at the combine, but he stepped up and performed as expected.

Harvin could have showed the doubters he was fully capable of running routes and catching passes, but he did not step up and perform in any of the pass-catching drills. Instead he showed up and proved only that he was a bit stronger than people gave him credit for. Okay, but his stock won't go up until he proves to scouts he can run routes will the same knack and quickness that he can run out of the backfield.

DHB ran very well and proved his long speed will give defenders nightmares in the NFL. Steady stock.

Hakeem Nicks ran faster than expected but didn't appear to be as cut as the other top wideouts. His huge hands give credence to the Boldin comparisons. No major change.

Kenny Britt showed up cut and ready to jump into the 1st Round mix. He appeared to kick into a second gear on his 40 yard dash, helping him time almost as fast as Maclin. He is comparable to DHB at this point, but he was not as explosive overall. 23 reps on the bench press proves the work he put in.

Iglesias did not stand out in any drills, and now has to prove the doubters who say he's nothing more than a possession WR. Pro day will be telling.

The guy that might have fought his way into my top WR tier was Brian Robiskie. He performed admirably and made some great catches in drills. His work ethic will give him the chance to start at the next level and produce sooner than most of these guys will.

Louis Murphy go to show his stuff against his peers on an even playing field for the first time in his college career. He performed well and worked hard, giving pro scouts a reason to label him as a potential future starting wideout. He's starting to remind me of a faster version of former Gator, Reche Caldwell. Not a terrible thing.

Derrick Williams apparently caught the flu bug, but decided to participate in all of the tests and drills anyway. Didn't really help his stock with some poor times. The time for him to live up to his billing as a top prospect (as he was out of High School) is running out.

Massaquoi ran a much slower 40 than expected, which will hurt his overall profile. Lack of production in college is now under the microscope.

Ramses Barden didn't stick out as much as he should've given his size. Still looks to be a project kind of receiver, but he still warrants being one of the first WRs looked at after the top 6.

Brandon Tate's ranking will remain fairly conservative given he has yet to run in front of scouts.

Brandon Gibson did not run the 40 which is curious. Otherwise, he measured well. Stock won't fall too far unless he clocks over a 4.6 on his Pro Day.

Jarrett Dillard proved why he was so productive with his impressive vert, but also raised another set of questions with his small hands. He is still an intruiging option who may slip into Round 3 of the NFL draft.

Mike Thomas made a few great catches and ran very fast, though his height will put him at a huge disadvantage against taller, more physical corners.

Austin Collie flashed quickness, but still lacks long speed as evidenced by his 4.6 40. He caught well in the drills, which bodes well for teams looking to add him as a possession-type.

Brooks Foster did the most bench reps among receivers, but he did not run a 40. He's in the same boat as Gibson at this point.

Aaron Kelly really fell off the map after his Junior season, and his workout won't save him. He looks slow on film (though he did run a respectable 40), and he could only do 11 bench reps.

Kenny McKinley looked like a poor man's version of DeSean Jackson at the combine. Like fellow Gamecock, TE Jared Cook, McKinley really elevated his stock showing great quickness and deep speed.

Demetrius Byrd had a great showing, as some predicted, but will he be able to run crisper routes? Motivation remains a question.

Darius Passmore looked slow and did not run well in drills. He can no longer be considered among the top 25 on this list.

Quan Cosby didn't do much to elevate his stock. Questions remain about his ability to make up for his lack of size given his mediocre athlaticism. He didn't get any younger.

Sammy Stroughter might be one of the shortest in this group (okay, not maybe)... but he has superb route-running ability and can catch any pass. Will be more of a specialist at the NFL level unfortunatly.

Patrick Turner looked smooth and confident in drills. The fact that he did not run a 40 is not good, and we'll have to wait until his pro day to see if he can post a sub-4.6 (doubtful).

Deon Butler turned in one of the most impressive performances at the combine, giving his stock a big boost. He's had one of the better postseasons of any receiver, and his 40 time will make him alot more money in the draft than orginially expected. Dynasty leaguers will probably fall over themselves trying to get who they hope will be the next Eddie Royal.

Kevin Ogletree answered alot of questions about his recovery from his knee injury. He posted above average times for nearly all of his drills, including a combine-best 4.08 in the short shuttle. He's definitely someone to watch, although there are some questions about his character.

Tiquan Underwood posted a great 40 time and displayed good overall athleticism, but he's gonig to need to bulk up if he wants to make it an as NFL wideout.

Overall, the rest of the class went largely unnoticed, with the exception of Johnny Knox's 40 yard dash. Even still, he did not dominate his competition in college like an NFL-ready guy would at that lower level. Pat White may be the only other guy worth noting, even though he did not work out with the wideouts. He posted a respectable 4.55 and may work out as a receiver at his Pro Day.

 
Final Pre-Combine look at 2009 Rookie class (Updated 2/18/09)

Lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation (PPR)

RBs

99-95 Perennial RB1

94-85 Potential RB1

84-75 Potential RB2

74-65 Potential fantasy backup

64-55 Longshot fantasy contributor

[88] LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh**

[86] Knowshon Moreno, Georgia**

[83] Chris Wells, Ohio State*

[79] Shonn Greene, Iowa*

[77] Donald Brown, UConn*

[74] Rashad Jennings, Liberty

[70] Andre Brown, North Carolina State

[69] Jeremiah Johnson, Oregon

[68] James Davis, Clemson

[68] Javon Ringer, Michigan State

[68] Mike Goodson, Texas A&M*

[67] Glen Coffee, Alabama*

[65] Bernard Scott, Abilene Christian

[64] Arian Foster, Tennessee

[64] Tyrell Sutton, Northwestern

[64] Cedric Peerman, Virginia

[63] Gartrell Johnson, Colorado State

[63] Kory Sheets, Purdue

[63] Devin Moore, Wyoming

[62] Javarris Williams, Tennessee State

[60] P.J. Hill, Wisconsin*

[58] Aaron Brown, TCU

[56] Marlon Lucky, Nebraska

[55] Branden Ore, West Liberty State

[55] Chris Ogbonnaya, Texas

[55] Brad Lester, Auburn

[55] Keegan Herring, Arizona State

[55] Ian Johnson, Boise State

[55] Marcus Thigpen, Indiana
Pre-combine rankings listed above for reference.This groups' stock is down as a whole thanks to a largely unimpressive combine. None of the top backs broke 4.5 in the 40, compared to what seemed like all of the top backs breaking that barrier just last year. Nobody truly stood out (in a good way) except Donald Brown.

McCoy unfortunately came down with the flu, so he chose not to participate. Normally this wouldn't be good news at all. But with the way the RBs ran today, who knows if McCoy would have posted a time just as poorly. Pro Day is huge for him as he looks to make his way into the 1st Round of the NFL draft.

Moreno showed up cut and stronger than ever to the combine. He definitely impressed in all of the agility drills, but that extra weight might have hurt him in the 40. A slower than expected time will most likely push him out of the top 10 of the NFL draft. Still has a shot to be my #1 back.

Wells was fighting himself all day. No question he was the most relatively agile guy in the drills, given his size. But when he repeatedly jumped INTO the guy trying to measure his broad jump, it just got a little ridiculous. His jumps were pushing 11', but he had to re-jump several times, before he finally measured at 10'8" (still the best among RBs). He was straining on his 40, which led to a poor time. This does nothing to ease the concerns about his work-ethic.

Greene ran a worse-than-expected 40, but looked good in the agility drills for a man his size. He still hasn't been able to prove he can be a 3 down back in the NFL, given his lack of versatility.

My impression of Donald Brown before the combine was that he lacked the burst and agility that top backs usually have, Donald Brown brought it hard, and ended up with top times in most categories. His natural knack for finding the hole combined with his great measurables has to put him in the top tier of RBs.

Jennings ran relatively well at the combine, including one 40 yard dash clocked at 4.49. He's got great uper body strength, and showed quick feet in the drills.

Andre Brown was one of maybe 2-3 RBs who actually impressed with his 40 yard dash. Still, durability questions won't make him a better overall prospect than Jennings.

Jeremiah Johnson did not display the long speed that most backs his size need to make it big at the level. He is more in his element on the field, which should help him in the long run.

Ringer has a slightly better performance at the combine than Johnson, but he also will have to answer questions about his size. His workload in college coupled with his injury history do not bode well for a back his size.

Goodson was quick on his feet, but his questionable dedictaion reared its ugly head on the bench press. While he put up solid numbers, I just can't put him above any of the middle-tier guys with the doubts about his work ethic.

Coffee showed up looking more slender than a potential NFL RB should. At this point in the game, he doesn't look all that much more impressive than Ian Johnson overall, though he might flash a bit more athleticism on the field.

Scott, as some predicted, turned some heads at the combine. I get the feeling he has at least matured a bit, which is more than you can say about Goodson. This guy has alot of potential if he can put all his troubles behind him. His draft position may say something about what pro scouts think about Scott's maturity.

Foster didn't even run the 40. He's in the same boat as P.J. Hill at this point. Productive college backs who probably can only hope to be the next Ron Dayne.

Sutton had the most dissapointing weekend of any RB. He went from underrated to overrated in the span of only a few days. He was measured shorter than he was listed in college and ran much slower than expected.

Peerman flashed more athleticism than just about any RB at the combine. He had the 2nd best 40 and vertical, which proves he still has his explosiveness after his injuries in college. He will be tested in the NFL given his tiny hands, but he could fit in a change of pace role quite nicely.

Gartrell Johnson is maybe the thickest back in this years' class. Though well built, he displayed a lack of athleticism in drills.

Sheets may have been a bit underrated in my original rankings. I, for one, did not expect a 4.45 time from Sheets, and this puts him in the mix of RBs after Rashad Jennings.

Devin Moore did not receive an invite to the combine, but ran some drills for scouts before the combine. His times and measurables were less than impressive.

Javarris Williams was built like a tank, and turned in a nice 40 time for his size. He won't offer much in the way of versatility for an NFL RB, but he could be the first goal-line type back off the board, being given the chance to contribute right away.

Ian Johnson could be the most underrated back on my pre-combine list, but his size and lack of overall athleticism on film still doesn't bode well for an NFL RB.

The entire class will get a slight bump down overall, but there are still 7 intruiging names who have a shot to get drafted on Day 1.

 
Final Pre-Draft rankings of 2009 Rookie class (Updated 3/25/09)

Pre-draft lists are based upon the fantasy upside of players in their best potential situation (Typical 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, PPR leagues)

* = Junior

** = 3rd year Sophomore
First post updated.I would have to say there are 16 players who I'd consider drafting in the first round of a typical non-IDP 12-team dynasty league...

[84] RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia**

[84] RB LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh**

[82] RB Chris Wells, Ohio State*

[81] WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech**

[79] RB Donald Brown, UConn*

[79] WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri**

[76] WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland*

[74] RB Shonn Greene, Iowa*

[74] WR Percy Harvin, Florida*

[73] QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia*

[72] RB Andre Brown, North Carolina State

[72] WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina*

[72] WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers*

[71] QB Mark Sanchez, USC*

[71] RB Rashad Jennings, Liberty

[70] WR Brain Robiskie, Ohio State

Given the nature of this list, where players are ranked assuming an ideal situation in the NFL, the RBs are rated higher than they will be post-draft. Since the RBs success will arguably depend more upon situation (surrounding talent, depth at the RB position) than QBs and WRs, I expect to drop all the RBs ratings accordingly.

Given the fact that the QB and WR ratings won't be as affected by the draft: the players above at those positions, along with Moreno, McCoy, Wells, and Donald Brown are considered the guys who will likely remain in my top tier.

ETA 3/28/09: Made some slight changes to the ratings scale, but no major movement

 
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More players to consider in the top 20 or so depending on where they are drafted:

[66] QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State*

Freeman has upside that no other QB in this class can touch. Tremendous size and above-average athleticism will allow him to see the field well and escape defenders at the same time. Oh and he has arguably the strongest arm in this class, with underrated accuracy. He obviously needs polish, otherwise we'd be talking about a top 10 pick. He didn't make tremendous strides from his Sophomore to Junior year like scouts would have liked, but that will happen when you lose a guy like Jordy Nelson. He has experience (well, more than Sanchez), but he needs to work on his recognition or else he's doomed to be the next Randy Moss-less Daunte Culpepper. He'll probably be drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd Round... hopefully by a team with no allusions about starting him in Year 1. The best thing that could happen is for him to sit for a year or two. Too many QBs with his tools are thrust into the spotlight, which may lead to giving the player a sense of entitlement that could hinder his learning curve.

[67] RB Mike Goodson, Texas A&M*

[66] RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State

[66] RB Cedric Peerman, Virginia

[65] RB Jeremiah Johnson, Oregon

[65] RB James Davis, Clemson

[65] RB Bernard Scott, Abilene Christian

[65] RB Kory Sheets, Purdue

I'll call this the middle-tier of RBs. Of this tier, Goodson and Scott have the most upside. Where a team drafts them will give a hint as to what those particular scouts actually think about their character. On paper, there is no reason Goodson should be drafted later than Round 3. But if all 32 teams feel the way Mike Sherman did after coaching him at TAMU, then there isn't any way Goodson gets picked earlier than Round 5. Scott on the other hand, has had so many coaches in his football career, that scouts are sure to dig up alot of dirt. Then again, they may find that one coach who may have seen Scott's good side. Given their likely draft positions (Day 2), they will have to work hard just to factor into the mix of a RB committee. Goodson's skills could give him the opportunity at a Jerious Norwood role by the end of the season if the cards fall in his favor. Scott, meanwhile, is more of a traditional bell-cow 'back who may need to fight for a roster spot out of camp. At that point, any team with an aging RB could give him a look as their potential starter of the future. Ringer, Davis, Peerman, Johnson, and Sheets are as versatile, if not moreso, than any RBs in this class, but they are all lacking any sort of elite skill. They will probably all ride the pine in Year 1, but could factor in as change-of-pace guys by Year 2. Best situation these guys can hope for is to be in line for touches once the season starts, on a team with a fragile #1.

[65] WR Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma

[64] WR Jarett Dillard, Rice

[64] WR Ramses Barden, Cal Poly

[63] WR Derrick Williams, Penn State

[63] WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina

[63] WR Brandon Gibson, Washington State

[63] WR Mike Thomas, Arizona

[62] WR Deon Butler, Penn State

[62] WR Louis Murphy, Florida

[62] WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Georgia

[62] WR Kenny McKinley, South Carolina

[61] WR Mike Wallace, Mississippi

[61] WR Brooks Foster, North Carolina

[61] WR Kevin Ogletree, Virginia*

[61] WR Demetrius Byrd, LSU

[60] WR Austin Collie, BYU*

This group is a hodge-podge of quick slot guys, big end-zone targets, and fluid athletes posing as WRs. Iglesias should find a niche as a #2 guy sooner or later, and may contribute early if he ends up on a team like Indianapolis. Dillard's unique skill set is sure to get him noticed by some creative coaches who may look to him as a slot guy, and potentially a red-zone threat. His football IQ and natural pass-catching abilities will give him a head start on fellow rookies who may take 2-3 years to develop. Barden has good speed for a WR his size, but his suddenness will keep him out of Day 1 and off of fantasy radars for at least a year. Williams on the other hand is not blazing fast given his size, but his quickness and experience in the return game will get him drafted higher than this rating would give him credit for. The situation you'd like to see him in if you're a fan is to be drafted by a team with motivational teammates and coaches who will knock him off his high horse. The two Brandons- Tate and Gibson- have not done much in the way of post-season workouts, so their draft positions will have to do some of the talking. Gibson has a workout scheduled for the 29th, while Tate will be recovering from his injury until June. Tate will probably be drafted higher than most of these guys due to his experience in the return game. Thomas and Butler can be held in the same breath given their similar explosiveness. Both have to overcome a serious lack of size, but can help their causes if they land on a team who needs help in the return game. Murphy is looking more and more like an athlete playing the role of WR. Whatever team (and dynasty owner) drafts him will need to be patient with him. Massaquoi, a slightly slower version of Iglesias, will probably be drafted alot lower than people think. McKinley, a guy with a low ceiling, but high floor will be happy no matter where he goes after catching passes from the likes of Chris Smelley. Wallace isn't exactly flying under the radar after running a 4.3 40 at the Combine, but he is raw and will probably need 2 years to develop into a potential starter no matter where he is drafted. Just how much stock will NFL scouts put into Foster's impressive performance on the bench press? Ogletree is a bonafide sleeper. Production didn't match his Combine performance, which is worrisome, but in 3 years, we may be talking about a potential fantasy WR2. Byrd's draft position may give a hint as to what scouts think about his work ethic. If he drops into the 6th or 7th round, stay away. Collie, unlike Byrd, is not physically gifted, but works hard in order to gain separation from defenders. Coaches will find it easy to get everything they can out of Collie, plus he should be able to stick around as a solid special teamer. His upside isn't as high a guy like Wes Welker's, but he could turn in a few 70+ catch seasons with the right offense.

[67] TE James Cook, South Carolina*

[65] TE James Casey, Rice*

[63] TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

[61] TE Shawn Nelson, Southern Mississippi

Best case scenario for these guys is to go to a team lacking serious WR talent. As we've seen with guys like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, and Todd Heap in recent years, this is a huge factor in determining fantasy numbers in TEs. All of these guys have starting potential in typical 12-team leagues. Casey is the most polished and ready-to-contribute, while Pettigrew, despite likely being the first TE drafted, will take time to develop into a serious pass-catching threat.

 
KIPER: "I have [White] as my 4th QB on the board after the Big Three (Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman)," said Kiper. "He can throw the ball. He lit up North Carolina in that bowl game, he is not just a wildcat guy. That is where you put a running back or wideout for one reason, to run. White can throw the ball."
http://www.footballdrafttalk.com/2009/03/m...-should-be.html
I will say that Pat White is higher on my overall list than his WR rating would suggest, because of his poetntial to contribute as a quarterback in some manner. Scouts also remain very high on him as a WR (like, top 15 in the draft). I would consider ranking him in the top 40 overall prospects in terms of fantasy, given an ideal Draft situation.
 
aposulli said:
JAA said:
KIPER: "I have [White] as my 4th QB on the board after the Big Three (Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman)," said Kiper. "He can throw the ball. He lit up North Carolina in that bowl game, he is not just a wildcat guy. That is where you put a running back or wideout for one reason, to run. White can throw the ball."
http://www.footballdrafttalk.com/2009/03/m...-should-be.html
I will say that Pat White is higher on my overall list than his WR rating would suggest, because of his poetntial to contribute as a quarterback in some manner. Scouts also remain very high on him as a WR (like, top 15 in the draft). I would consider ranking him in the top 40 overall prospects in terms of fantasy, given an ideal Draft situation.
I realize they aren't the same, but it seems he can be used like Randle El. I highly doubt he'll ever be an elite WR, but he should be a decent WR3 or 4.
 
surprised at the low grades for Moreno: 84, and Stafford: 74 (boarderline NFL back-up) tops at their position 2009.....
The ratings I used weren't suggesting they are bordering "NFL back-up" material, but fantasy back-ups. Stafford and Sanchez at this point look like potential top 10 QBs ala Phillip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Situation could hurt them a bit. Moreno could be one of the top 15-20 RBs next year in fantasy if he is drafted on a team in need of a starter.ETA: Stafford and Sanchez's outlook is based on what I expect 3 years down the line, not in their Rookie seasons obviously.
 
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surprised at the low grades for Moreno: 84, and Stafford: 74 (boarderline NFL back-up) tops at their position 2009.....
The ratings I used weren't suggesting they are bordering "NFL back-up" material, but fantasy back-ups. Stafford and Sanchez at this point look like potential top 10 QBs ala Phillip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Situation could hurt them a bit. Moreno could be one of the top 15-20 RBs next year in fantasy if he is drafted on a team in need of a starter.ETA: Stafford and Sanchez's outlook is based on what I expect 3 years down the line, not in their Rookie seasons obviously.
Where would Peterson have scored 2 years ago and Matt Ryan last year?
 
surprised at the low grades for Moreno: 84, and Stafford: 74 (boarderline NFL back-up) tops at their position 2009.....
The ratings I used weren't suggesting they are bordering "NFL back-up" material, but fantasy back-ups. Stafford and Sanchez at this point look like potential top 10 QBs ala Phillip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Situation could hurt them a bit. Moreno could be one of the top 15-20 RBs next year in fantasy if he is drafted on a team in need of a starter.ETA: Stafford and Sanchez's outlook is based on what I expect 3 years down the line, not in their Rookie seasons obviously.
Where would Peterson have scored 2 years ago and Matt Ryan last year?
I did have my own dynasty rankings 2 years ago, but not the same type of list.To be fair, I was not in love with Peterson as most were, though I had him at #1. I underrated the QBs as a whole last year, but I was a big Ryan guy.If two players with their college credentials came out this year, I would have Peterson as RB1 (obviously), with a rating somewhere around 90, and Ryan with a rating around 74. In hindsight, both would have been underrated.
 
surprised at the low grades for Moreno: 84, and Stafford: 74 (boarderline NFL back-up) tops at their position 2009.....
The ratings I used weren't suggesting they are bordering "NFL back-up" material, but fantasy back-ups. Stafford and Sanchez at this point look like potential top 10 QBs ala Phillip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Situation could hurt them a bit. Moreno could be one of the top 15-20 RBs next year in fantasy if he is drafted on a team in need of a starter.ETA: Stafford and Sanchez's outlook is based on what I expect 3 years down the line, not in their Rookie seasons obviously.
Where would Peterson have scored 2 years ago and Matt Ryan last year?
I still have last years' post-draft ratings buried in this thread somewhere, but it wouldn't be the same scale. I would like to carry over the scale I'm using this year, so I'll be sure to post the 2009 pre and post-draft ratings for future reference.
 
In taking one final look at each offensive skill position before the draft, I've decided to write a blurb about my top prospects...

QBs >80 Potential fantasy stud, 80-65 Potential fantasy starter, <65 Potential fantasy backup

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia*, 6'2¼", 225, 4.84

Scouting Report: Ideal arm strength; Very confident; Needs work on footwork and touch throws

What to expect in his prime: Jay Cutler circa 2008

Comments: Similar to Cutler in several facets of the game. If asked to play in Year 1, it shouldn't hurt his development too much. He has the intangibles and talent of many productive gunslinging QBs in the past inlcuding Favre, Cutler, etc.

Overall Rating: 73

2. Mark Sanchez, USC*, 6'2⅛", 227, 4.88

Scouting Report: Ideal quick release; Great leadership qualities; Inexperienced; Lacks ideal arm strength

What to expect in his prime: Tom Brady circa 2003

Comments: A great prototype for a WCO-leading QB. The big knock against this guy is that there isn't much of a precendent of QBs having so few starts before being drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. If he sits a full season and gets a handful of NFL preseason games under his belt, he should be able to eventually put up Romo or Aaron Rodgers numbers with a good supporting cast.

Overall Rating: 71

3. Josh Freeman, Kansas State*, 6'5¾", 248, 4.97

Scouting Report: Ideal size and arm strength; Very agile for his size; Needs work on mental lapses, reading defenses

What to expect in his prime: Warren Moon circa 1987

Comments: A boom-or-bust candidate with Daunte Culpepper upside and Daunte Culpepper downside. Given his need to learn how to read defenses, it's safe to say Freeman ideally would not follow JaMarcus Russell's path in becoming an NFL starter. Great coaching could do wonders for him as he has the potential to put up fantasy starter numbers in the ideal scenario.

Overall Rating: 66

RBs, WRs, TEs coming soon...

 
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