Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Hardy is coming out a year early as a junior. He's only 22 years old. I don't know when he attained his hieght but its doubtful he'll keep growing in hieght but I would be dollars to donuts that he will be able to layer in muscle and girth to his frame. I don't see Hardy in the same Somatotype body grouping as DeSean Jackson. The Three TypesThe only evidence I can offer is that there isn't a possession WR with his body type succeeding in the NFL right now. So my case against Hardy is similar to my case against McFadden: if he succeeds, he'll be the first of his kind in the modern NFL. I agree that BMI is harder to interpret with WR prospects than it is with backs, but I think we might eventually find a way to use it. What I initially did was make a list of the top WR's in the league and break them up according to BMI. I got the following results:Do you actually have any evidence to support the case of guys built like Hardy busting?
Marvin Harrison - 25.1
Chad Johnson - 25.3
Amani Toomer - 25.4
Isaac Bruce - 25.5
Randy Moss - 25.6
Torry Holt - 25.8
Donald Driver - 25.8
TJ Houshmandzadeh - 26.3
Santonio Holmes - 26.4
Reggie Wayne - 26.9
Braylon Edwards - 26.9
Javon Walker - 26.9
Laveranues Coles - 26.9
Terrell Owens - 27.2
Steve Smith - 27.3
Terry Glenn - 27.3
Joe Horn - 27.4
Plaxico Burress - 27.5
Derrick Mason - 27.5
Joey Galloway - 27.5
Greg Jennings - 27.5
Muhsin Muhammad - 27.6
Andre Johnson - 27.7
Hines Ward - 27.8
Roddy White - 27.9
Brandon Marshall - 28.0
Marques Colston - 28.1
Jerricho Cotchery - 28.1
Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2
Lee Evans - 28.3
Dwayne Bowe - 28.4
Marty Booker - 28.5
Anquan Boldin - 28.6
Santana Moss - 28.7
Chris Chambers - 29.3
As you can see, these numbers are hard to interpret, but I think we can possibly draw a few loose conclusions:
- Every successful WR with a BMI under 26.5 is a finesse type WR who succeeds because of speed and overall mobility. Therefore we might be able to include that any power type WR who succeeds because of strength and RAC would need to have a BMI greater than 26.5. I would recommend discriminating against power WR's with a BMI below 26.5. That's why I put out to the warning on Hardy. He's a power style WR with a finesse body type.
- Speed WR's come in all sizes. While it's true that every WR with a BMI under 26.5 is a finesse type WR, it's also true that there are successful high BMI speed guys like Santana Moss (28.7), Lee Evans (28.3), Greg Jennings (27.5), Joey Galloway (27.5), and Terry Glenn (27.3). I would therefore recommend ignoring BMI for receivers with a speed/quickness playing style. It doesn't seem relevant.
That's about all I feel comfortable saying at this point in time. Obviously I'm in a very preliminary stage with this stuff. To me what's most useful about this data is the ability to break WR's into distinct categories based on BMI and to compare prospects to players in those categories.
For example, Earl Bennett is considered a possession (power) type WR. He is compared to guys like Chambers, Cotchery, and Booker. You would expect his BMI to be similar. Sure enough, Bennett has a 28.8 BMI, which puts him snugly between Cotchery (28.1) and Chambers (29.1). I wouldn't upgrade him because of this, but I wouldn't downgrade him either.
On the flipside, James Hardy is a possession (power) type WR. He is compared to guys like Colston, Burress, and Marshall. You would expect his BMI to be similar. Unfortunately, Hardy's 25.5 BMI is well below that of Burress (27.5), Marshall (28.0), and Colston (28.1). I would consider downgrading him because of this.
Here's the BMI for the prominent 2008 rooks:
DeSean Jackson - 24.5
Harry Douglas - 24.5
Jerome Simpson - 25.1
Mario Manningham - 25.2
James Hardy - 25.5
Lavelle Hawkins - 26.1
Limas Sweed - 26.4
Donnie Avery - 26.8
Keenan Burton - 27.1
Eddie Royal - 27.2
Dexter Jackson - 27.3
Andre Caldwell - 27.5
Malcolm Kelly - 27.6
Devin Thomas - 27.8
Jordy Nelson - 27.9
Early Doucet - 28.3
Earl Bennett - 28.8
Sheldon’s “somatotypes” and their supposed associated psychological traits can be summarised as follows:
Ectomorphic: characterized by long and thin muscles/limbs and low fat storage; usually referred to as slim.
Mesomorphic: characterized by large bones, solid torso, low fat levels, wide shoulders with a narrow waist.
Endomorphic: characterized by increased fat storage, a wide waist and a large bone structure.
I think at his age and the fact that he probably could have reached his height within the last 2 to 3 years that his girth hasn't caught-up yet to his frame. DeSean Jackson has been near his optimal hieght for a few years and his wieght has not changed at all in years. I would bet if you looked up Hardy's wieght VS DeSean Jackson's weight you would see Jackson has not budged but Hardy had added weight. It takes time to layer in muscle, his frame has room for more muscle. The other veteran WRs you listed were not Juniors coming in a year early to the league as is Hardy. So you should compensate for 'reasonably expected' added weight with a tall and YOUNG WR prospect like Hardy.
Oh and Joey Galloway not only possed phenomenal speed he also benched 400 lbs when coming out. I wouldn't ever label him as just a 'speed' WR.



, but he simply does not have the overall profile to put the fear of god in an NFL defense ala Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. Brandon Pettigrew's case may be the most interesting as he could be used mostly as a blocker ala Daniel Graham. But if he can become a more natural pass-catcher, coaches may use him like Alge Crumpler. If he gets impatient with his role ala Vernon Davis, he won't see the field one way or the other. I still see the upside, and I'm not dropping him too far even though lots of people seem to be knocking him for his added value of being a good blocker. Shawn Nelson, Travis Beckum, Chase Coffman, and Cornelius Ingram round out this deep class of pass-catching TEs, and deserve a draft pick in any TE-required league.