Fantasy Relevant Quarterbacks. (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

The Quarterback is usually the highest scoring position and you can usually acquire a top 5 Quarterback if you draft smart.


1.) Drew Brees

Perennial Pro Bowler. Hall of Famer. Stat padder? I sure hope so. Brees has the talent and if Colston can produce this will be a GREAT offense. Love when he scores 5 Touchdowns.


2.) Aaron Rodgers

The guy. Might have more upside than Brees but injury concerns bumps him down.


3.) Peyton Manning

Unless he falls off dramatically. Hope his spirit isn't crushed. He should have a decent upside so long as Monte Ball can keep him upright.

4.) Cam Newton

This depends on your scoring but Newton puts up stats, doesn't get hurt. Would love to have him on my team, guy holds the team on his shoulders.

5.) Andrew Luck

The things this guy does at the QB position is sick. He elevates the talent around him. Wayne, Hilton... someone's gonna be a value.

6.) Matt Stafford

He's burned me in the past during his 20 TD year but I am ready to trust Stafford again. High upside with Johnson.


7.) Tony Romo

Proven producer with less "upside" than both Andrew Luck and Matt Stafford, imo. Has one of the better Wide Receivers in the game. Jason Witten is getting old, so I'd be leery but this team should pass plenty.

8.) Philip Rivers

Not a sexy pick but a somewhat reliable one. Decent weapons, great talent. It gets really muddy this far down the list where some of these guys are SO close.

9.) Nick Foles

You can't deny upside but I draft for proven production. If I can't get a near guaranteed 4,000 yards then I'm willing to roll the dice with Foles and handcuff him with a veteran like Roethlisberger or Cutler.

10.) Robert Griffin III

I remember his Rookie year, guy slings it with the best of them. This guy wants to succeed or die trying. New Offense, who knows?

11.) Colin Kaepernick

He's a great player and after games he's had against Green Bay you know this guy has potential to score gobs of points for your team.


12.) Russell Wilson

I wouldn't be excited if Wilson was my starter but it could be worse. He's got a great defense and sweet run game so he doesn't have to wing it. His weapons are decent though.


13.) Matt Ryan
White potentially getting older and the departure of Gonzalez leaving leaves a huge void. If you have Ryan ranked high, tell me who's going to catch Touchdowns? Julio Jones? Sure. Roddy White? Looked awful last year... Tony Gonzalez? Gone. Harry Douglas? Maybe, just, maybe...




Beyond that, you're better off picking out of these players late.


Jay Cutler - Great Receivers
Ben Roethisberger - Great matchup player
Andy Dalton - 3/4 TD potential
Carson Palmer - Bruce Arians offense

 

[Truman]

Incredible breakdown. Though I have to say Trestmans offense will propel a healthy Cutler to a borderline top 5 fantasy QB well ahead of Russell Wilson and CK.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I hope every single opponent of mine in every single draft I participate in reads this thread and takes it to heart, so I can keep on nabbing Philip Rivers at QB15 and finish ahead of half or more of them at the position.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Pretty sure I remove Wilson and Kaepernick and replace then with Romo and Foles.

I am a Wilson owner, and a Romo detractor - but facts are what they are and Wilson and Kaepernick are on run-first teams with very good Ds. They don't have to put up huge production, just do enough for their teams to win.

Dallas on the other hand looks to be throwing a ton to either keep up or catch up in games, and PHI is 100% dedicated to speeding up their pace and running a bunch more plays. Both are very conducive to FF QB success.

 

[Khy]

I hope every single opponent of mine in every single draft I participate in reads this thread and takes it to heart, so I can keep on nabbing Philip Rivers at QB15 and finish ahead of half or more of them at the position.

Going to have to agree with this one. People keep forgetting that Rivers finished 3rd last season in scoring. He threw for 4500 yards and 32 TDs with next to nobody to pass the ball too save a rookie WR. You figure his #2 WR for the majority of last season was Eddie Friggin Royal and he still managed those numbers. This year? He'll have Keenan Allen in his second season, a healthy Vincent Brown and a healthy Malcom Floyd. As well as a healthy but aging Antonio Gates and a lot of peoples favorite breakout TE in Ladarius Green. This will also be thier second season in Mike McCoy's system which really played to the teams strengths. I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded his 2013 passing numbers but I don't think he's likely to be much lower than the 4500/32 marker.

I incredibly disagree with Kaepernick being anywhere near the Top 10. People really need to back off the kids jock, he's just not 'that' good. He's an average passer with good running ability, one of these seasons he maybe has a 2010 Michael Vick year but past that his 2013 stats will be fairly typical of Kaep. The 49ers likely just jammed a nail in their own coffin by signing him to a cap crushing deal till 2020. This deal has the Dallas/Romo deal written all over it. Every year they're going to keep losing people until they have a shell of their former team left. I said it last year and I'll say it again this year, their year was 2012 to win it. And they lost to an aging Ravens team. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs this season imo. Also, what do you mean after the games he's had against GB? Everyone has good games against GB, their defense is trash.

How Romo isn't in your top 10 is beyond me. Their defense is absolute garbage, they're going to be in TONS of shootouts and Romo, while he's awful under pressure; has the talent to put up a lot of 400 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT type games this season. Which for fantasy purposes are still going to be huge games. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended the season with a line something like 4500 yards, 38 TDs and 25 INTs.

Roethlisberger is one of my big sleeper picks for Top 10 this season as well. He finished 8th last season and in all likelihood they'll be throwing even more this year. I'd say Ben is probably a solid shot for 4300 yards & 30-35 TDs. Especially with his favorite red zone target, Heath Miller back in the mix. Also, mark Heath Miller down as a great buy low target for TE.

I see the guy above mentioned Foles, while I think Foles will be good this season I think he'll fall just outside the Top 10. He had an absolutely obnoxious 13.5:1 TD to INT ratio. That's impossible to keep up, over the pace of a full season. Think of it this way, Brady's record shattering 2007 season where he went 50 TDs for 8 INTs still posted only a 6.25:1 ratio. And his amazing 2010 season of 36 TDs to 4 INTs was even still only a 9:1 ratio. Even Peyton last season had 55/10 or a 5.5:1 ratio. It's physically impossible for Foles to continue that type of TD:INT ratio and production. He also completeed a ridiculous 9.1 YPA which is almost a full yard higher than Peyton's 8.3 from last season. Foles completed 64% of his passes, which while not awful isn't groundbreaking either.

Lets assume he regresses, which is extremely likely. Last season the Eagles attempted 508 passes in total between Foles & Vick. Assume that's accurate for this year (and it probably is roughly accurate) that means Foles is likely for something along the lines of 325 comp, 4300 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs is probably more realistic. He won't stay on the TD pace he was on last season. Last season he averaged 11.74 attempts per TD. By comparison Peyton set the all time TD record and averaged 11.98 attempts per TD. Drew Brees (who came second in TDs) averages 16.67 attempts per TD. It's just extremely unlikely for someone to pull off 12 attempts per TD or less. if Foles did keep up that pace he'd project out to about 43 TDs on 508 passes which is just ridculous and not likely. So yeah, my line for Foles is somewhere at the bottom of QB1 or high QB2 stats at 4300 yards, 29 TDs. Right now he's going off the board at QB6 and that's simply WAY to rich for my blood as I doubt he finishes that high.

 

[Greggity]

Romo usually puts up pretty good numbers. Id be happy with him as my starting qb in a 12 team league. With that defense in dallas he is assured to always have to be throwing the ball....

 

[Ted Mullins]

10.) Matt Ryan

White potentially getting older and the departure of Gonzalez leaving leaves a huge void.

Agree here, I feel very confident Roddy White will continue to get older every year.

 

[Dismattle]

Pretty sure I remove Wilson and Kaepernick and replace then with Romo and Foles.

I am a Wilson owner, and a Romo detractor - but facts are what they are and Wilson and Kaepernick are on run-first teams with very good Ds. They don't have to put up huge production, just do enough for their teams to win.

Dallas on the other hand looks to be throwing a ton to either keep up or catch up in games, and PHI is 100% dedicated to speeding up their pace and running a bunch more plays. Both are very conducive to FF QB success.

Thanx for the post Billy..

I almost think you have to at least consider Foles in the Top 5.

Eminence How do you figure Wilson makes the jump to #8 overall for Fantasy QB's?

 

[Khy]

Pretty sure I remove Wilson and Kaepernick and replace then with Romo and Foles.

I am a Wilson owner, and a Romo detractor - but facts are what they are and Wilson and Kaepernick are on run-first teams with very good Ds. They don't have to put up huge production, just do enough for their teams to win.

Dallas on the other hand looks to be throwing a ton to either keep up or catch up in games, and PHI is 100% dedicated to speeding up their pace and running a bunch more plays. Both are very conducive to FF QB success.

Thanx for the post Billy..I almost think you have to at least consider Foles in the Top 5.

Eminence How do you figure Wilson makes the jump to #8 overall for Fantasy QB's?

The jump? Wilson finished QB9 last season. There's no jump to make.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Pretty sure I remove Wilson and Kaepernick and replace then with Romo and Foles.

I am a Wilson owner, and a Romo detractor - but facts are what they are and Wilson and Kaepernick are on run-first teams with very good Ds. They don't have to put up huge production, just do enough for their teams to win.

Dallas on the other hand looks to be throwing a ton to either keep up or catch up in games, and PHI is 100% dedicated to speeding up their pace and running a bunch more plays. Both are very conducive to FF QB success.

Thanx for the post Billy..I almost think you have to at least consider Foles in the Top 5.

Eminence How do you figure Wilson makes the jump to #8 overall for Fantasy QB's?

Opinions are like #######s - and sometimes mine stink a lot worse than others.

Good point of discussion though IMO.

 

[Bronco Billy]

The jump? Wilson finished QB9 last season. There's no jump to make.

QB15, QB12, and QB13 in my 3 main leagues. That felt about right for him given his numbers.

 

[Shutout]

Agree with the romo comments. He is perennially so overlooked and the owners that snag him always seem to get exceptional value.

Rivers was similar last year but I just don't get the vibe that it will be like that again this year. Sometimes it keeps rolling and sometimes you look back and say "how did Derrick Alexander have that one wild year"? Rivers is obviously much better than Alexander but it just looks to me that, given all the options you have at qb, that he isn't any more likely to be that guy that seriously overplays his draft point this year.

 

[Run It Up]

Lol Rivers doesn't even get a nod. Awful.

 

[MattFancy]

If I had to rank them for this year, I'd have them:

1. Peyton Manning

2. Drew Brees

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Matt Stafford

5. Andrew Luck

6. Nick Foles

7. Cam Newton

8. Robert Griffin III

9. Russell Wilson

10. Tony Romo

11. Matt Ryan

12. Tom Brady

For me personally, once you get past the top 3, I think a case can probably be made for anyone else to be ranked anywhere in the top 12. Last year going by ESPN's standard scoring, the difference between QB3 (Cam) and QB15 (Smith) was 2.5ppg.

I know my strategy going into re-drafts this year is going to be waiting on a QB. Unless one of those top 3 guys looks to be falling, I'd have no problem with Romo, RG3, Ryan, etc as my QB. I honestly don't remember QB ever being this deep during my 15 years playing fantasy football.

 

[Run It Up]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

13. Jay Cutler

14. Big Ben

15. Colin Kaepernick

16. Andy Dalton

 

[ShaHBucks]

I hope every single opponent of mine in every single draft I participate in reads this thread and takes it to heart, so I can keep on nabbing Philip Rivers at QB15 and finish ahead of half or more of them at the position.

Going to have to agree with this one. People keep forgetting that Rivers finished 3rd last season in scoring. He threw for 4500 yards and 32 TDs with next to nobody to pass the ball too save a rookie WR. You figure his #2 WR for the majority of last season was Eddie Friggin Royal and he still managed those numbers. This year? He'll have Keenan Allen in his second season, a healthy Vincent Brown and a healthy Malcom Floyd. As well as a healthy but aging Antonio Gates and a lot of peoples favorite breakout TE in Ladarius Green. This will also be thier second season in Mike McCoy's system which really played to the teams strengths. I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded his 2013 passing numbers but I don't think he's likely to be much lower than the 4500/32 marker.

I incredibly disagree with Kaepernick being anywhere near the Top 10. People really need to back off the kids jock, he's just not 'that' good. He's an average passer with good running ability, one of these seasons he maybe has a 2010 Michael Vick year but past that his 2013 stats will be fairly typical of Kaep. The 49ers likely just jammed a nail in their own coffin by signing him to a cap crushing deal till 2020. This deal has the Dallas/Romo deal written all over it. Every year they're going to keep losing people until they have a shell of their former team left. I said it last year and I'll say it again this year, their year was 2012 to win it. And they lost to an aging Ravens team. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs this season imo. Also, what do you mean after the games he's had against GB? Everyone has good games against GB, their defense is trash.

How Romo isn't in your top 10 is beyond me. Their defense is absolute garbage, they're going to be in TONS of shootouts and Romo, while he's awful under pressure; has the talent to put up a lot of 400 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT type games this season. Which for fantasy purposes are still going to be huge games. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended the season with a line something like 4500 yards, 38 TDs and 25 INTs.

Roethlisberger is one of my big sleeper picks for Top 10 this season as well. He finished 8th last season and in all likelihood they'll be throwing even more this year. I'd say Ben is probably a solid shot for 4300 yards & 30-35 TDs. Especially with his favorite red zone target, Heath Miller back in the mix. Also, mark Heath Miller down as a great buy low target for TE.

I see the guy above mentioned Foles, while I think Foles will be good this season I think he'll fall just outside the Top 10. He had an absolutely obnoxious 13.5:1 TD to INT ratio. That's impossible to keep up, over the pace of a full season. Think of it this way, Brady's record shattering 2007 season where he went 50 TDs for 8 INTs still posted only a 6.25:1 ratio. And his amazing 2010 season of 36 TDs to 4 INTs was even still only a 9:1 ratio. Even Peyton last season had 55/10 or a 5.5:1 ratio. It's physically impossible for Foles to continue that type of TD:INT ratio and production. He also completeed a ridiculous 9.1 YPA which is almost a full yard higher than Peyton's 8.3 from last season. Foles completed 64% of his passes, which while not awful isn't groundbreaking either.

Lets assume he regresses, which is extremely likely. Last season the Eagles attempted 508 passes in total between Foles & Vick. Assume that's accurate for this year (and it probably is roughly accurate) that means Foles is likely for something along the lines of 325 comp, 4300 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs is probably more realistic. He won't stay on the TD pace he was on last season. Last season he averaged 11.74 attempts per TD. By comparison Peyton set the all time TD record and averaged 11.98 attempts per TD. Drew Brees (who came second in TDs) averages 16.67 attempts per TD. It's just extremely unlikely for someone to pull off 12 attempts per TD or less. if Foles did keep up that pace he'd project out to about 43 TDs on 508 passes which is just ridculous and not likely. So yeah, my line for Foles is somewhere at the bottom of QB1 or high QB2 stats at 4300 yards, 29 TDs. Right now he's going off the board at QB6 and that's simply WAY to rich for my blood as I doubt he finishes that high.

Probably higher

 

[Khy]

I hope every single opponent of mine in every single draft I participate in reads this thread and takes it to heart, so I can keep on nabbing Philip Rivers at QB15 and finish ahead of half or more of them at the position.

Going to have to agree with this one. People keep forgetting that Rivers finished 3rd last season in scoring. He threw for 4500 yards and 32 TDs with next to nobody to pass the ball too save a rookie WR. You figure his #2 WR for the majority of last season was Eddie Friggin Royal and he still managed those numbers. This year? He'll have Keenan Allen in his second season, a healthy Vincent Brown and a healthy Malcom Floyd. As well as a healthy but aging Antonio Gates and a lot of peoples favorite breakout TE in Ladarius Green. This will also be thier second season in Mike McCoy's system which really played to the teams strengths. I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded his 2013 passing numbers but I don't think he's likely to be much lower than the 4500/32 marker.

I incredibly disagree with Kaepernick being anywhere near the Top 10. People really need to back off the kids jock, he's just not 'that' good. He's an average passer with good running ability, one of these seasons he maybe has a 2010 Michael Vick year but past that his 2013 stats will be fairly typical of Kaep. The 49ers likely just jammed a nail in their own coffin by signing him to a cap crushing deal till 2020. This deal has the Dallas/Romo deal written all over it. Every year they're going to keep losing people until they have a shell of their former team left. I said it last year and I'll say it again this year, their year was 2012 to win it. And they lost to an aging Ravens team. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs this season imo. Also, what do you mean after the games he's had against GB? Everyone has good games against GB, their defense is trash.

How Romo isn't in your top 10 is beyond me. Their defense is absolute garbage, they're going to be in TONS of shootouts and Romo, while he's awful under pressure; has the talent to put up a lot of 400 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT type games this season. Which for fantasy purposes are still going to be huge games. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended the season with a line something like 4500 yards, 38 TDs and 25 INTs.

Roethlisberger is one of my big sleeper picks for Top 10 this season as well. He finished 8th last season and in all likelihood they'll be throwing even more this year. I'd say Ben is probably a solid shot for 4300 yards & 30-35 TDs. Especially with his favorite red zone target, Heath Miller back in the mix. Also, mark Heath Miller down as a great buy low target for TE.

I see the guy above mentioned Foles, while I think Foles will be good this season I think he'll fall just outside the Top 10. He had an absolutely obnoxious 13.5:1 TD to INT ratio. That's impossible to keep up, over the pace of a full season. Think of it this way, Brady's record shattering 2007 season where he went 50 TDs for 8 INTs still posted only a 6.25:1 ratio. And his amazing 2010 season of 36 TDs to 4 INTs was even still only a 9:1 ratio. Even Peyton last season had 55/10 or a 5.5:1 ratio. It's physically impossible for Foles to continue that type of TD:INT ratio and production. He also completeed a ridiculous 9.1 YPA which is almost a full yard higher than Peyton's 8.3 from last season. Foles completed 64% of his passes, which while not awful isn't groundbreaking either.

Lets assume he regresses, which is extremely likely. Last season the Eagles attempted 508 passes in total between Foles & Vick. Assume that's accurate for this year (and it probably is roughly accurate) that means Foles is likely for something along the lines of 325 comp, 4300 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs is probably more realistic. He won't stay on the TD pace he was on last season. Last season he averaged 11.74 attempts per TD. By comparison Peyton set the all time TD record and averaged 11.98 attempts per TD. Drew Brees (who came second in TDs) averages 16.67 attempts per TD. It's just extremely unlikely for someone to pull off 12 attempts per TD or less. if Foles did keep up that pace he'd project out to about 43 TDs on 508 passes which is just ridculous and not likely. So yeah, my line for Foles is somewhere at the bottom of QB1 or high QB2 stats at 4300 yards, 29 TDs. Right now he's going off the board at QB6 and that's simply WAY to rich for my blood as I doubt he finishes that high.

Probably higher

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I have my reasons for skepticism, any real rebuttals past "you're wrong"?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Foles

 

[cloppbeast]

Tom Brady all day.

I guess one bad season is all it takes.

 

[Blackjacks]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

13. Jay Cutler

14. Big Ben

15. Colin Kaepernick

16. Andy Dalton

When looking at this list it makes me feel more comfortable on waiting.

overrated Cam and Wilson

underrated Brady, Cutler, Big Ben and Dalton

 

[Dismattle]

I do not want to add confusion in reguards to Wilson Sea. But for the record, he was somehow able to finish 13th in my League (two spots above Tannehill Mia.)

Now I believe Wilson had two games w/ over 300 yds , along w two games of awesome rushing totals However as mentioned in so many words The Sea Def rocks, and the Running game is top notch too.

Now I also somewhat disagree w Kaep (Owner) But He did lack weapons (although the same applys in both Def,Rushing)

p.s. Im not attempting to evaluate the whole list, I merely hoped to add credibility to your initial rankings w some quick editing.

 

[Run It Up]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

13. Jay Cutler

14. Big Ben

15. Colin Kaepernick

16. Andy Dalton

When looking at this list it makes me feel more comfortable on waiting.

overrated Cam and Wilson

underrated Brady, Cutler, Big Ben and Dalton

I hope I'm wrong about all those QBs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Tom Brady all day.

I guess one bad season is all it takes.

I haven't really researched a ton so far this year, but from what I have seen on Brady he will likely be a good value target as his stock has fallen off a cliff. But like every other player, it depends when you draft him. I have only looked at a couple of sites, but Brady had an ADP of QB10 at one and QB12 in the other. That seems like a bargain to me.

Fantasy wise, Brady scored close to his usual self with Gronk in the lineup and with his other receivers relatively healthy. He averaged 27.3 fantasy ppg over a 6 week stretch in the second half of last season, posting 14 of his 25 TD passes on the season over that stretch. Then Gronk went down, the rookies got hurt, Amendola seemed to re-aggravate his injury, and Brady had no one left to throw to besides Edelman.

I realize there are a lot of IFs in the following, but if Gronk, the WRs, and Vereen stay healthy Brady should be in line for a bounce back season. I suspect his ypa will climb up and his number of attempts will go down, but I also think he will up his TD total by around 10 on the season. I would project Brady for a 4500/35 season and roughly 360 fantasy points on the season. That would probably net Brady a QB4 or QB5 ranking at the end of the season (even with close to nothing from Brady on the ground). Of course, if Gronk is out for an extended stretch, the WRs are all banged up, Vereen misses more than half the season again, the OL suffers season ending injuries and underperforms . . . well, you get the idea.

 

[socrates]

1. Drew Brees: To end the season, NO showed some signs of life in their running game, but they know which side their bread is buttered on, and that was evident with the selection of Cooks in the draft. Brees is coming off of three consecutive 5,000 passing yard seasons, where he has totaled 40+ TDs per season.
2. Peyton Manning: The losses of Moreno and Decker could impact Manning, but even allowing for some regression, Manning is a lock to finish at or just below the top of this list.
3. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers comes into this season in the best shape of his career, reportedly. While we may see some more balance from GB’s offense than some of the other offenses at the top of this list, Rodgers is just too talented to list any lower, IMO.
4. Matthew Stafford: He still has Megatron, and the additions of Golden Tate and Rookie TE Eric Ebron should help some. Working with OC Joe Lombardi is a huge plus.
5. Andrew Luck: Reggie Wayne returns, in some capacity, and the team added the oft-injured but very talented Hakeem Nicks in Free Agency and raw but talented wideout Donte Moncrief in the draft.
6. Matt Ryan: Matty Ice loses his security blanket in Tony Gonzalez, but the return of a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White should inject some life back into the Atlanta passing game. Matt Ryan is a virtual lock to finish top 10.
7. Robert Griffin III: If Jay Gruden could make Andy Dalton a top 3 fantasy QB last season, what can he do with a more talented RGIII? The addition of DeSean Jackson to pair with Pierre Garcon along with a full season of recovery should help Griffin finish in the top 10.
8. Cam Newton: The receiving corps stinks, but Newton compensates for that with his rushing numbers, and even this represents his worst career finish.
9. Nick Foles: The Eagles were surprisingly near the bottom of the league in pass attempts a season ago. I am not sold on Foles as an elite talent at the position, and with the loss of WR DeSean Jackson, I expect Foles to regress some this season.
10. Tony Romo: Scott Linehan brings his pass-happy offensive scheme to Dallas. I expect Romo to flourish, provided his back is healthy.
11. Philip Rivers: Rivers has been a bit streaky. He finished as a top 5 fantasy QB last season, and he could certainly do that again this season (top 5 in three of the last six seasons). This seems a bit too low for Rivers, and I may adjust that up as the season approaches. Rivers remains a guy to target for value.
12. Jay Cutler: Chicago boasts an embarrassment of offensive riches in Forte, Marshall and Jeffery. If the O-line can protect Cutler, he could easily surpass this projection.
13. Tom Brady: It seems a crime to drop Brady out of my top ten, but until his receiving corps can consistently take the field, it is difficult to expect Brady to finish among the elite, despite his elite talent.
14. Russell Wilson: This may be a slight to Wilson to rank him this low, especially if he has a healthy Percy Harvin at his disposal this season, but we know Seattle will lean heavily on their running game and dominant defense to win games. Wilson is undoubtedly talented enough to finish considerably higher than this.
15. Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben quietly finished as the number 8 fantasy QB last season. He loses Emmanuel Sanders to free agency, so part of Roethlisberger’s success hinges on the play of the receiving corps to fill Sanders’ void. I could easily envision Roethlisberger finishing in the top 10.
16. Andy Dalton: Dalton finished as the #3 fantasy QB in 2013, but I look for a shift toward emphasizing the running game in Cinci this season.
17. Colin Kaepernick: Like Russell Wilson, the main thing stopping me from ranking Kaepernick higher is the heavy emphasis on the running game. This feels like a slight to Kaepernick, nonetheless.
18. Carson Palmer: This is another guy I may be targeting for value. Fitzgerald and Floyd make a powerful receiving dual threat, and Ellington should be heavily involved in the passing game.
19. Joe Flacco: With the return of Pitta and the addition of Steve Smith, Flacco could finish well above this ranking, but he is not a QB I want to rely upon for weekly production.
20. Jake Locker: Locker has some decent receiving targets in Kendall Wright and improving athletic sophomore, Justin Hunter. The offense should improve under the tutelage of Ken Whisenhunt, but the real keys will be Locker’s health and the play of the revamped O-line.
21. Alex Smith: Smith enjoyed the most successful season of his career in 2013 under HC Andy Reid. He finished especially strong in the playoffs. If he can build upon that success, this could prove to be a major slight.
22. Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is a talented QB, and perhaps under new OC Bill Lazor, he can start to play up to the level of his talent.
23. Josh McCown: McCown was fantastic in relief of Cutler last season, and he finds himself with another pair of king-sized receivers in Vincent Jackson and Rookie Mike Evans. McCown could ride this wave of success and confidence to a top 12 finish, but Glennon remains a solid spectre in his rearview mirror, and if McCown falters, he could quickly find himself back in a backup role.
24. EJ Manuel: Manuel has a high ceiling, if things start to click for him, especially with the addition of WR Sammy Watkins in the draft, but until we see his talent translate to on-field production, Manuel is merely depth on your fantasy roster.
25. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick is an experienced, gritty competitor, and he has some talented playmakers to throw the ball to, but there is no guarantee he will hold onto or even win the starting job.
26. Eli Manning: Manning represents potential value at this point, but he really needs to turn things around quickly.
27. Matt Schaub: Schaub enjoyed some success in Houston prior to last season’s debacle. In Oakland, he will be working with less talent, however, so expecting Schaub to return to his pre 2013 numbers may be a reach.
28. Johnny Manziel: The impending suspension of WR Josh Gordon leaves the Cleveland receiving corps in shambles. Hoyer may hold Manziel off for a while, but I expect the Manziel experiment to start sooner rather than later.
29. Sam Bradford: I am a bit conflicted about my ranking of Sam Bradford. He has some decent talent around him, albeit not elite. It would not take much to improve on this ranking, but I wouldn’t set my expectations too highly. The Rams should lean heavily upon their running game.
30. Michael Vick: I expect Vick to overtake Geno Smith at some point this season, perhaps even to start the season, but the receiving corps in New York is nothing to get too excited about, and Vick is always an injury risk.
31. Teddy Bridgewater: I would not be surprised to see Bridgewater start the season under center, but I would not expect too much year one.
32. Blake Bortles: See above

 

[PhantomJB]

Lots of great analysis of individuals here but a huge mistake focusing on rankings vs. tiers.

Top 3 - Elite Tier

Brees/Rodgers/Peyton

HUGE Tier II

Stafford/Cam/Rivers/Luck/Brady/Ryan/Foles/Romo/RGIII/Kap/Cutler/Dalton/maybe Wilson

Aging Vet Tier III - QBBC Matchup Plays

Eli/Flacco/Palmer/Big Ben

On any given Sunday nearly every one of the 17 QB's listed could (and has) put up Top 3 weekly numbers. It is an exercise in futility to try and rank them one over the other to try and figure out who's going to finish the full season QB5 and who's going to finish QB12. No amount of preseason analysis is going to help differentiate these guys.

Therefore if you can't get an elite tier guy in redraft you just wait. And wait. And wait.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Wow. If I'm in a redraft and these are the general sentiments, I'm targeting Brady big time. In all 3 of my big leagues he was a top 5 ffppw QB in the second half of the season last year - you know, once the young WRs got a little bit of seasoning. I'd guess the rumors of his demise might be greatly exaggerated.

 

[Khy]

Lots of great analysis of individuals here but a huge mistake focusing on rankings vs. tiers.

Top 3 - Elite Tier

Brees/Rodgers/Peyton

HUGE Tier II

Stafford/Cam/Rivers/Luck/Brady/Ryan/Foles/Romo/RGIII/Kap/Cutler/Dalton/maybe Wilson

Aging Vet Tier III - QBBC Matchup Plays

Eli/Flacco/Palmer/Big Ben

On any given Sunday nearly every one of the 17 QB's listed could (and has) put up Top 3 weekly numbers. It is an exercise in futility to try and rank them one over the other to try and figure out who's going to finish the full season QB5 and who's going to finish QB12. No amount of preseason analysis is going to help differentiate these guys.

Therefore if you can't get an elite tier guy in redraft you just wait. And wait. And wait.

I'd swap Ben and Kaep. Really getting tired of Kaep being awful and people slotting him into the Top 10. He's had a couple good Top 10 weeks but more often then not his average is well out of the Top 10.

 

[cloppbeast]

Fantasy wise, Brady scored close to his usual self with Gronk in the lineup and with his other receivers relatively healthy. He averaged 27.3 fantasy ppg over a 6 week stretch in the second half of last season, posting 14 of his 25 TD passes on the season over that stretch. Then Gronk went down, the rookies got hurt, Amendola seemed to re-aggravate his injury, and Brady had no one left to throw to besides Edelman.

I realize there are a lot of IFs in the following, but if Gronk, the WRs, and Vereen stay healthy Brady should be in line for a bounce back season. I suspect his ypa will climb up and his number of attempts will go down, but I also think he will up his TD total by around 10 on the season. I would project Brady for a 4500/35 season and roughly 360 fantasy points on the season. That would probably net Brady a QB4 or QB5 ranking at the end of the season (even with close to nothing from Brady on the ground). Of course, if Gronk is out for an extended stretch, the WRs are all banged up, Vereen misses more than half the season again, the OL suffers season ending injuries and underperforms . . . well, you get the idea.

There's a lot of 'ifs' - but then again, every quarterback has a lot of them. Brady just happens to come off a season where all those 'ifs' went against him.

Of course, you'll have some play the injury prone card with Gronk and Amendola.

 

[pantherclub]

Foles in year 2 of that system could very well be the #1 fantasy qb this year.

 

[Khy]

Fantasy wise, Brady scored close to his usual self with Gronk in the lineup and with his other receivers relatively healthy. He averaged 27.3 fantasy ppg over a 6 week stretch in the second half of last season, posting 14 of his 25 TD passes on the season over that stretch. Then Gronk went down, the rookies got hurt, Amendola seemed to re-aggravate his injury, and Brady had no one left to throw to besides Edelman.

I realize there are a lot of IFs in the following, but if Gronk, the WRs, and Vereen stay healthy Brady should be in line for a bounce back season. I suspect his ypa will climb up and his number of attempts will go down, but I also think he will up his TD total by around 10 on the season. I would project Brady for a 4500/35 season and roughly 360 fantasy points on the season. That would probably net Brady a QB4 or QB5 ranking at the end of the season (even with close to nothing from Brady on the ground). Of course, if Gronk is out for an extended stretch, the WRs are all banged up, Vereen misses more than half the season again, the OL suffers season ending injuries and underperforms . . . well, you get the idea.

There's a lot of 'ifs' - but then again, every quarterback has a lot of them. Brady just happens to come off a season where all those 'ifs' went against him.

Of course, you'll have some play the injury prone card with Gronk and Amendola.

That's the whole reason that you have to respect the low ranking on Brady this season. It's possible he regresses even further this season. It's also possible he returns to form. But you really have to way both sides of the 'ifs' heavily.

 

[Khy]

Foles in year 2 of that system could very well be the #1 fantasy qb this year.

I'm so confident that won't happen that I'd literally eat my own shoe if Foles even finished in the Top 3. As I posted above, his averages would put him on par or better than the best seasons of all time at the position. And sure, it's possible that in 15 years Foles is in that conversation. But right now? It's absolutely obnoxious to think he's going to maintain the levels of play he was at last season. Especially considering he lost his best WR to FA, his QB coach to the Dolphins etc. etc.

 

[FUBAR]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

13. Jay Cutler

14. Big Ben

15. Colin Kaepernick

16. Andy Dalton

When looking at this list it makes me feel more comfortable on waiting.

overrated Cam and Wilson

underrated Brady, Cutler, Big Ben and Dalton

I like Cam a LOT. He's just behind Luck and Rodgers if I were starting a team (Foles and Wilson are close). BUT I'll be avoiding him in redrafts unless he falls out of the top 8.

 

[FUBAR]

1. Drew Brees: To end the season, NO showed some signs of life in their running game, but they know which side their bread is buttered on, and that was evident with the selection of Cooks in the draft. Brees is coming off of three consecutive 5,000 passing yard seasons, where he has totaled 40+ TDs per season.
2. Peyton Manning: The losses of Moreno and Decker could impact Manning, but even allowing for some regression, Manning is a lock to finish at or just below the top of this list.
3. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers comes into this season in the best shape of his career, reportedly. While we may see some more balance from GB’s offense than some of the other offenses at the top of this list, Rodgers is just too talented to list any lower, IMO.
4. Matthew Stafford: He still has Megatron, and the additions of Golden Tate and Rookie TE Eric Ebron should help some. Working with OC Joe Lombardi is a huge plus.
5. Andrew Luck: Reggie Wayne returns, in some capacity, and the team added the oft-injured but very talented Hakeem Nicks in Free Agency and raw but talented wideout Donte Moncrief in the draft.

I'll put Luck ahead of Stafford as #4. Allen's return and (hopefully) Trent's development as an short pass outlet should help him continue to develop and he's already shown his talent to be an elite QB.

top 3 are their own tier.

 

[socrates]

1. Drew Brees: To end the season, NO showed some signs of life in their running game, but they know which side their bread is buttered on, and that was evident with the selection of Cooks in the draft. Brees is coming off of three consecutive 5,000 passing yard seasons, where he has totaled 40+ TDs per season.
2. Peyton Manning: The losses of Moreno and Decker could impact Manning, but even allowing for some regression, Manning is a lock to finish at or just below the top of this list.
3. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers comes into this season in the best shape of his career, reportedly. While we may see some more balance from GB’s offense than some of the other offenses at the top of this list, Rodgers is just too talented to list any lower, IMO.
4. Matthew Stafford: He still has Megatron, and the additions of Golden Tate and Rookie TE Eric Ebron should help some. Working with OC Joe Lombardi is a huge plus.
5. Andrew Luck: Reggie Wayne returns, in some capacity, and the team added the oft-injured but very talented Hakeem Nicks in Free Agency and raw but talented wideout Donte Moncrief in the draft.

I'll put Luck ahead of Stafford as #4. Allen's return and (hopefully) Trent's development as an short pass outlet should help him continue to develop and he's already shown his talent to be an elite QB.

top 3 are their own tier.

As a talent, I certainly prefer Luck. Stafford benefits from having Megatron, plus if Indy can get some semblance of a running game happening, I expect them to be a bit more balanced than Detroit, who will adopt the pass-friendly scheme Lombardi brings with him from New Orleans. That said, Luck finishing ahead of Stafford would surprise nobody.

 

[PhantomJB]

Lots of great analysis of individuals here but a huge mistake focusing on rankings vs. tiers.

Top 3 - Elite Tier

Brees/Rodgers/Peyton

HUGE Tier II

Stafford/Cam/Rivers/Luck/Brady/Ryan/Foles/Romo/RGIII/Kap/Cutler/Dalton/maybe Wilson

Aging Vet Tier III - QBBC Matchup Plays

Eli/Flacco/Palmer/Big Ben

On any given Sunday nearly every one of the 17 QB's listed could (and has) put up Top 3 weekly numbers. It is an exercise in futility to try and rank them one over the other to try and figure out who's going to finish the full season QB5 and who's going to finish QB12. No amount of preseason analysis is going to help differentiate these guys.

Therefore if you can't get an elite tier guy in redraft you just wait. And wait. And wait.

I'd swap Ben and Kaep. Really getting tired of Kaep being awful and people slotting him into the Top 10. He's had a couple good Top 10 weeks but more often then not his average is well out of the Top 10.

That's fair. Although SF does now have a healthy Crabtree and added Stevie Johnson. They also have a few potential shootouts on the schedule with NO, DEN, PHI and CHI. Big Ben lost Sanders but still seems to always perform so can see your point for sure.

 

[Anarchy99]

Fantasy wise, Brady scored close to his usual self with Gronk in the lineup and with his other receivers relatively healthy. He averaged 27.3 fantasy ppg over a 6 week stretch in the second half of last season, posting 14 of his 25 TD passes on the season over that stretch. Then Gronk went down, the rookies got hurt, Amendola seemed to re-aggravate his injury, and Brady had no one left to throw to besides Edelman.

I realize there are a lot of IFs in the following, but if Gronk, the WRs, and Vereen stay healthy Brady should be in line for a bounce back season. I suspect his ypa will climb up and his number of attempts will go down, but I also think he will up his TD total by around 10 on the season. I would project Brady for a 4500/35 season and roughly 360 fantasy points on the season. That would probably net Brady a QB4 or QB5 ranking at the end of the season (even with close to nothing from Brady on the ground). Of course, if Gronk is out for an extended stretch, the WRs are all banged up, Vereen misses more than half the season again, the OL suffers season ending injuries and underperforms . . . well, you get the idea.

There's a lot of 'ifs' - but then again, every quarterback has a lot of them. Brady just happens to come off a season where all those 'ifs' went against him.

Of course, you'll have some play the injury prone card with Gronk and Amendola.

That's the whole reason that you have to respect the low ranking on Brady this season. It's possible he regresses even further this season. It's also possible he returns to form. But you really have to way both sides of the 'ifs' heavily.

NOTHING went right for Brady last year (well, other than his own health). And he still ranked QB13. What scenario could you come up with that would be worst than last year?

 

[freshhh]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

13. Jay Cutler

14. Big Ben

15. Colin Kaepernick

16. Andy Dalton

No matty ice?! On another note I feel like this is the year Luck establishes himself as a top 3-5 fantasy QB.

 

[Noah Davis]

So nobody thinks Seattle taking a WR with their 1st pick (2nd round) and another WR in the 4th means any difference to their offense? I think dropping Wilson out of the top 12 is a mistake and he solidly deserves to be in the 2nd tier discussion. Yes their D is good, yes they run the ball - but I think they continue the same evolutionary path they have for the past two years and open up the offense more for Wilson.

Every year they have and every year he delivers I can't see that stopping. I think they want a completely balanced split.

2012: 43% pass (405 pass attempts, 536 rush attempts)

2013: 45% pass (420 pass attempts, 509 rush attempts)

 

[ShaHBucks]

I hope every single opponent of mine in every single draft I participate in reads this thread and takes it to heart, so I can keep on nabbing Philip Rivers at QB15 and finish ahead of half or more of them at the position.

Going to have to agree with this one. People keep forgetting that Rivers finished 3rd last season in scoring. He threw for 4500 yards and 32 TDs with next to nobody to pass the ball too save a rookie WR. You figure his #2 WR for the majority of last season was Eddie Friggin Royal and he still managed those numbers. This year? He'll have Keenan Allen in his second season, a healthy Vincent Brown and a healthy Malcom Floyd. As well as a healthy but aging Antonio Gates and a lot of peoples favorite breakout TE in Ladarius Green. This will also be thier second season in Mike McCoy's system which really played to the teams strengths. I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded his 2013 passing numbers but I don't think he's likely to be much lower than the 4500/32 marker.

I incredibly disagree with Kaepernick being anywhere near the Top 10. People really need to back off the kids jock, he's just not 'that' good. He's an average passer with good running ability, one of these seasons he maybe has a 2010 Michael Vick year but past that his 2013 stats will be fairly typical of Kaep. The 49ers likely just jammed a nail in their own coffin by signing him to a cap crushing deal till 2020. This deal has the Dallas/Romo deal written all over it. Every year they're going to keep losing people until they have a shell of their former team left. I said it last year and I'll say it again this year, their year was 2012 to win it. And they lost to an aging Ravens team. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs this season imo. Also, what do you mean after the games he's had against GB? Everyone has good games against GB, their defense is trash.

How Romo isn't in your top 10 is beyond me. Their defense is absolute garbage, they're going to be in TONS of shootouts and Romo, while he's awful under pressure; has the talent to put up a lot of 400 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT type games this season. Which for fantasy purposes are still going to be huge games. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended the season with a line something like 4500 yards, 38 TDs and 25 INTs.

Roethlisberger is one of my big sleeper picks for Top 10 this season as well. He finished 8th last season and in all likelihood they'll be throwing even more this year. I'd say Ben is probably a solid shot for 4300 yards & 30-35 TDs. Especially with his favorite red zone target, Heath Miller back in the mix. Also, mark Heath Miller down as a great buy low target for TE.

I see the guy above mentioned Foles, while I think Foles will be good this season I think he'll fall just outside the Top 10. He had an absolutely obnoxious 13.5:1 TD to INT ratio. That's impossible to keep up, over the pace of a full season. Think of it this way, Brady's record shattering 2007 season where he went 50 TDs for 8 INTs still posted only a 6.25:1 ratio. And his amazing 2010 season of 36 TDs to 4 INTs was even still only a 9:1 ratio. Even Peyton last season had 55/10 or a 5.5:1 ratio. It's physically impossible for Foles to continue that type of TD:INT ratio and production. He also completeed a ridiculous 9.1 YPA which is almost a full yard higher than Peyton's 8.3 from last season. Foles completed 64% of his passes, which while not awful isn't groundbreaking either.

Lets assume he regresses, which is extremely likely. Last season the Eagles attempted 508 passes in total between Foles & Vick. Assume that's accurate for this year (and it probably is roughly accurate) that means Foles is likely for something along the lines of 325 comp, 4300 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs is probably more realistic. He won't stay on the TD pace he was on last season. Last season he averaged 11.74 attempts per TD. By comparison Peyton set the all time TD record and averaged 11.98 attempts per TD. Drew Brees (who came second in TDs) averages 16.67 attempts per TD. It's just extremely unlikely for someone to pull off 12 attempts per TD or less. if Foles did keep up that pace he'd project out to about 43 TDs on 508 passes which is just ridculous and not likely. So yeah, my line for Foles is somewhere at the bottom of QB1 or high QB2 stats at 4300 yards, 29 TDs. Right now he's going off the board at QB6 and that's simply WAY to rich for my blood as I doubt he finishes that high.

Probably higher

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I have my reasons for skepticism, any real rebuttals past "you're wrong"?

Your 2nd to last paragraph, his age, his 1st off season getting #1 reps and the offense

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Agree with the romo comments. He is perennially so overlooked and the owners that snag him always seem to get exceptional value.

Rivers was similar last year but I just don't get the vibe that it will be like that again this year. Sometimes it keeps rolling and sometimes you look back and say "how did Derrick Alexander have that one wild year"? Rivers is obviously much better than Alexander but it just looks to me that, given all the options you have at qb, that he isn't any more likely to be that guy that seriously overplays his draft point this year.

Since 2008, here are Rivers' positional finishes in 4-pt pass TD scoring: 3, 7, 4, 9, 21, 5. Remember that Sesame Street song? "One of these things is not like the others." It wasn't last year that was his massive outlier; it was his abysmal 2012!

Outside of the top 3 guys plus Stafford and (probably) Luck, there's not a single other name on that list that I'm even 75% confident will outscore him this season. It's ridiculous bordering on absurd that some of them are going 3 and 4 rounds ahead of Rivers in ADP. I actually think he might be the most likely QB in the whole league to overplay his current draft point this year.

 

[cloppbeast]

NOTHING went right for Brady last year (well, other than his own health). And he still ranked QB13. What scenario could you come up with that would be worst than last year?

Getting hit by a bus?

 

[cloppbeast]

There's a lot of 'ifs' - but then again, every quarterback has a lot of them. Brady just happens to come off a season where all those 'ifs' went against him.

That's the whole reason that you have to respect the low ranking on Brady this season. It's possible he regresses even further this season. It's also possible he returns to form. But you really have to way both sides of the 'ifs' heavily.

I'm with Anarchy99 on this one.

You have to believe in regression to the mean in this hobby. All those things which went wrong for Brady last season, have nothing to do with this season. And chances are, he won't have as bad of luck. You really have no logical reason to believe Brady's 'ifs' will be any worse than any other quarterback just because of one season, even the most recent one.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Lots of great analysis of individuals here but a huge mistake focusing on rankings vs. tiers.

Top 3 - Elite Tier

Brees/Rodgers/Peyton

HUGE Tier II

Stafford/Cam/Rivers/Luck/Brady/Ryan/Foles/Romo/RGIII/Kap/Cutler/Dalton/maybe Wilson

Aging Vet Tier III - QBBC Matchup Plays

Eli/Flacco/Palmer/Big Ben

On any given Sunday nearly every one of the 17 QB's listed could (and has) put up Top 3 weekly numbers. It is an exercise in futility to try and rank them one over the other to try and figure out who's going to finish the full season QB5 and who's going to finish QB12. No amount of preseason analysis is going to help differentiate these guys.

Therefore if you can't get an elite tier guy in redraft you just wait. And wait. And wait.

I'd swap Ben and Kaep. Really getting tired of Kaep being awful and people slotting him into the Top 10. He's had a couple good Top 10 weeks but more often then not his average is well out of the Top 10.

And yet here are Big Ben's positional finishes since 2008 in 4-pt pass TD scoring: 18, 9, 17, 13, 19, 12. Kaep might be awful - personally I doubt it, though he's probably going to have a couple of awful weeks - but at least he has a puncher's chance of finishing top-5 at the end of the season. Not even in Steelers fans' wildest dreams does Big Ben offer that kind of upside.

I'd much rather have Roethlisberger than anyone else in that tier, but my interest in him (or Dalton, for that matter) would be strictly as a QB2 - backing up a high-risk, high-reward QB1. Someone like, well, Kaep.

 

[Run It Up]

Since we're posting our own rankings; imo:

1. Drew Brees

2. Peyton Manning

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Mathew Stafford

5. Cam Newton

6. Nick Foles

7. Andrew Luck

8. Russell Wilson

9. Robert Griffin

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Tony Romo

-

>13. Matt Ryan

14. Jay Cutler

15. Big Ben

16. Colin Kaepernick

17. Andy Dalton

No matty ice?! On another note I feel like this is the year Luck establishes himself as a top 3-5 fantasy QB.

You're right, completely slipped my mind

 

[ebsteelers]

was the number 5 skipped on purpose?

I think people are sleeping on Big Game Ben

 

[Anarchy99]

To further the discussion, here are the cumulative fantasy ppg for all QBs with at least 10 starts over the past 3 seasons.

1	Drew Brees	27.132	Peyton Manning	26.813	Aaron Rodgers	26.294	Cam Newton	24.035	Tom Brady	23.736	Matt Stafford	23.027	Robert Griffin	22.218	Andrew Luck	21.389	Matt Ryan	21.2810	Tony Romo	21.1111	Nick Foles	20.2712	Russell Wilson	20.1713	Michael Vick	20.1314	Roethlisberger	19.8215	Philip Rivers	19.7816	Andy Dalton	19.3117	Carson Palmer	18.3918	Eli Manning	18.3719	R. Fitzpatrick	17.8820	Josh Freeman	17.7421	Jay Cutler	17.1222	Joe Flacco	17.0923	Alex Smith	17.0024	Josh McCown	16.9925	Matt Schaub	16.9326	Ryan Tannehill	16.7527	Sam Bradford	16.4628	EJ Manuel	16.4229	C. Kaepernick	16.0330	Geno Smith	15.8331	Kevin Kolb	15.7332	Mark Sanchez	15.7133	Mike Glennon	15.4734	Jake Locker	15.0435	C. Ponder	14.9136	Rex Grossman	14.8937	Chad Henne	14.8438	Brandon Weeden	14.6339	Matt Cassel	14.2840	Matt Moore	13.16

 

[Eminence]

Pretty sure I remove Wilson and Kaepernick and replace then with Romo and Foles.

I am a Wilson owner, and a Romo detractor - but facts are what they are and Wilson and Kaepernick are on run-first teams with very good Ds. They don't have to put up huge production, just do enough for their teams to win.

Dallas on the other hand looks to be throwing a ton to either keep up or catch up in games, and PHI is 100% dedicated to speeding up their pace and running a bunch more plays. Both are very conducive to FF QB success.

You might be right about this. There's ridiculous depth after the Top 5. A lot of guys that will score similar.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

NOTHING went right for Brady last year (well, other than his own health). And he still ranked QB13. What scenario could you come up with that would be worst than last year?

Getting hit by a bus?

Gronk injury. isnt ready for week1, plays by week 4, injured again.

 

[Anarchy99]

NOTHING went right for Brady last year (well, other than his own health). And he still ranked QB13. What scenario could you come up with that would be worst than last year?

Getting hit by a bus?

Gronk injury. isnt ready for week1, plays by week 4, injured again.

Not saying that that isn't a concern . . . but how is that WORSE than last year?

 

[Khy]

There's a lot of 'ifs' - but then again, every quarterback has a lot of them. Brady just happens to come off a season where all those 'ifs' went against him.

That's the whole reason that you have to respect the low ranking on Brady this season. It's possible he regresses even further this season. It's also possible he returns to form. But you really have to way both sides of the 'ifs' heavily.

I'm with Anarchy99 on this one.

You have to believe in regression to the mean in this hobby. All those things which went wrong for Brady last season, have nothing to do with this season. And chances are, he won't have as bad of luck. You really have no logical reason to believe Brady's 'ifs' will be any worse than any other quarterback just because of one season, even the most recent one.

How does last year have nothing to do with this season? Sure, Tom turned it on a little better in the 2nd half of the season but lets look at who he did it against.

Steelers 432 yards 4 TDs - They were a middle of the road defense last season, this was a solid game for him. Although do realize, one of these TDs was after a INT that landed them on the 34 PIT yardline. Another one was off a Julian Edleman punt return to the PIT 36. And another was a blown covered to Aaron Dobson for 81 yards. So he had two turnovers that handed him TDs and another one that was lucky.

Broncos 344 yards 3 TDs - Broncos were a bottom third defense last season. This was a classic game of the two best QBs of the last two decades hashing it out. Brady played a great game. Again though, 1 of his TDs was an INT which placed the ball on the DEN 29 yard line.

These two games buffed his 2nd half statline and even with that jump he was only 7th from week 8 on in PPG. It's not a matter of regression to the mean or anything of that sort. It's simply that last season his play was erradic. He didn't seem as accurate or poised as typical Tom and he had none of his old reliable weapons either. Neither of those two situations has gotten better from what I understand. Aaron Dobson is still going to drop half the passes thrown his way, Amendola is still going to get hurt every other week etc. This point isn't that something is going to change, it's that it already has changed.