Fantasy Scoring Way Up (Well, Duh!) (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

Here are the positional breakdowns of the top tier of players for fantasy purposes this year vs last year (4 pts per passing TD, 0 PPR):

AVG OF TOP 12 QB:

07 22.6 PPG

06 17.8 PPG

AVG OF TOP 24 RB:

07 14.3 PPG

06 13.6 PPG

AVG OF TOP 36 WR:

07 11.7 PPG

06 9.2 PPG

AVG OF TOP 12 TE:

07 8.4

06 6.6

Even with a lot of the top scoring RB from last year not stacking up so far, there have been a number of other RB collectively doing very well.

Is there something in the water this year that has players scoring way better than last year? Did the refs change what rules they are calling this time around? Will there be any defense this year in the NFL? Or is this the year where there are hardly any strong defensive teams?

And most importantly, should we expect the offensive explosion to continue throughout the season?

 

[FantasyTrader]

No. The scoring won't keep this pace. It's definitely going to be an "up" year for WR's, but there are more than a handful of WR's right now scoring at a pace that cannot be sustained.

 

[mrspree15]

Nice post. I've been arguing with a friend of mine because we changed to PPR and the scoring is "too high." I've been trying to explain that it would be higher regardless. Anyway, I can't answer your question. I don't know of any emphasized rules this year like illegal contact or something of the like.

 

[David Yudkin]

Has the weather been better? I know that wouldn't make a huge difference, but if was sunny and 70 degrees every game that would make it easier to play.

 

[Franknbeans]

I've often thought the first month of the season, the offenses have the advantage. If you listen to an NFL analyst, they tend to say the opposite but for fantasy purposes at least, the offenses seem to blow up in the month of September. Once the defenses catch up, you'll have the true STUDS getting their yards and TD's while the flash in the pan types who start off uber hot tend to cool down. How else can you explain Reggie Williams from last September?

 

[TheNext0]

I can't really guess as to whether or not this will keep up, but it really has me scratching my head. Teams in our league are averaging upwards of 20 more ppg than last year. In fact, when our record for most points in a season was set, the team averaged 136 ppg. This year, there are 7 teams (out of 10) averaging better!!!

Obviously, with bye's starting next week, we'll see a drop in scores, but I'm still surprised by the offensive output at this point in the season.

 

[Swampy]

Youll a see a swing where points go up every now and then. Yes, points are on a high note, but I think its just part of that swing. I did some research dating back 13 years ago for every year, in a PPR league, and I think twice in those 13 years points were at a premium.

 

[The Jerk]

Is there something in the water this year that has players scoring way better than last year? Did the refs change what rules they are calling this time around? Will there be any defense this year in the NFL? Or is this the year where there are hardly any strong defensive teams?And most importantly, should we expect the offensive explosion to continue throughout the season?

I've often thought the first month of the season, the offenses have the advantage. If you listen to an NFL analyst, they tend to say the opposite but for fantasy purposes at least, the offenses seem to blow up in the month of September. Once the defenses catch up, you'll have the true STUDS getting their yards and TD's while the flash in the pan types who start off uber hot tend to cool down. How else can you explain Reggie Williams from last September?

I think the answer is somewhere between these two perspectives. For many years from the mid-1990s through to around 2002 or 2003, it seemed offenses were usually explosive early in the season, and the fantasy scores were very high for the first two or three weeks, then settled down as the byes progressed.For the past 3 or 4 seasons, there were no early season fireworks. Perhaps the last few years were aberrant on the low side, and this year is more a return to normalcy.As to why, it seems to me that many teams are simply deciding to eschew the old "use the run to set up the pass" philosophy. The Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, even Steelers seem to be much more pass happy. There also seem to be some atypically atrocious secondaries. Weather changes will probably slow down the offenses, as will some defensive adjustments. It's a cyclical league.

 

[stbugs]

Here are the positional breakdowns of the top tier of players for fantasy purposes this year vs last year (4 pts per passing TD, 0 PPR):AVG OF TOP 12 QB:07 22.6 PPG06 17.8 PPGAVG OF TOP 24 RB:07 14.3 PPG06 13.6 PPGAVG OF TOP 36 WR:07 11.7 PPG06 9.2 PPGAVG OF TOP 12 TE:07 8.406 6.6Even with a lot of the top scoring RB from last year not stacking up so far, there have been a number of other RB collectively doing very well.Is there something in the water this year that has players scoring way better than last year? Did the refs change what rules they are calling this time around? Will there be any defense this year in the NFL? Or is this the year where there are hardly any strong defensive teams?And most importantly, should we expect the offensive explosion to continue throughout the season?

Not sure on this, but I think that QB play will be much better in 2007 than 2006. I think that mainly because Palmer was hurt (but played), McNabb was hurt, Roethlisberger was hurt (but played), Romo wasn't the starter all year and Brady has Moss. Sure, there is turnover every year, but when you are talking about 12 guys, having a handful of guys well improved over last year, that could easily have an effect.Again, I am not even looking at stats, so I could be way off, but before the year I knew Brady was going to have a career year and I liked Romo. They are a big reason why my main team is 3-0 and could be tops for points after tonight. I picked Romo because of his week 10 game against the Giants as Brady's backup, but also because he would be my flex. I just liked him a lot better than the second tier QBs and was very happy that someone kept Leinart was over him.

 

[stbugs]

Has the weather been better? I know that wouldn't make a huge difference, but if was sunny and 70 degrees every game that would make it easier to play.

Uh, yeah? Did you watch the game last night? When they flashed that the temperature at night in Chicago was a balmy 72, it surprised me. Sure, it is still September, but 72 at night, in Chicago still seemed warm to me.Also, not sure about the rest of the country, but here in Charlotte, we are in extreme drought conditions. I haven't seen one drop of rain in any game I have watched so far.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, even Steelers seem to be much more pass happy.

Pats 07 29.3 passing attempts per gamePats 06 32.9 passing attempts per gameBengals 07 41.2 passing attempts per gameBengals 06 32.7 passing attempts per gameCowboys 07 29.3 passing attempts per gameCowboys 06 31.6 passing attempts per gameSteelers 07 25.7 passing attempts per gameSteelers 06 32.7 passing attempts per gameOnly the Bengals are passing more than last year, although these teams are passing BETTER than they did last year.

 

[yesitsme]

Maybe it's me but it just seems like the defenses are just awful. Right now I'm having a hard time saying there's a dominant defensive unit in the NFL.

 

[PlayaHata]

I think it has a lot to do with the fact that all the recent NFL rule changes and clarifications have favored the offense, especially the passing games. It is almost impossible to play great pass defense these days unless you are Champ Bailey or are a great pass rushing team. Also, better passing games means higher scores for three positions (QBs, WRs, TEs), whereas good running games only benefit one position (RBs). As the weather starts turning worse though, I expect teams to start leaning on their running game more and passing/receiving stats to fall slightly.

 

[NYG Endzone]

LONG season

 

[Da Flyin Lion]

No one has said it yet, but it's pretty obvious. Higher NFL and fantasy scores are a bi-product of global warming.

 

[The Jerk]

The Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, even Steelers seem to be much more pass happy.

Pats 07 29.3 passing attempts per gamePats 06 32.9 passing attempts per gameBengals 07 41.2 passing attempts per gameBengals 06 32.7 passing attempts per gameCowboys 07 29.3 passing attempts per gameCowboys 06 31.6 passing attempts per gameSteelers 07 25.7 passing attempts per gameSteelers 06 32.7 passing attempts per gameOnly the Bengals are passing more than last year, although these teams are passing BETTER than they did last year.

Yuds,I didn't specifically say these teams had more passing attempts, just that they are passing earlier in the game, and as you said, better. If you want to look at stats, look at first half stats, completions, and passing TDs for these teams.All save the Bengals have been leading virtually all season. The Steelers have trailed for 12 seconds all year. I think all three teams have been leading the entire second half, and by multiple scores virtually the entire time, too.

 

[supersecretid]

The effects of weather are consistently overrated by the general public (especially the betting public). Rain, snow, cold, etc generally make far less difference than you think, and the myth is mostly perpetuated through confirmation bias.

Wind is the exception to this. You can rarely see it on TV, and it is a big deal, so if anything it gets underrated.

 

[otis68]

No one has said it yet, but it's pretty obvious. Higher NFL and fantasy scores are a bi-product of global warming.

When the NFC championship game is played at Lambeau and the temps are in the 50's, we'll see whos laughing.

 

[The Jerk]

Passing TDs through three games:

2007 NE: 10

2006 NE: 4

2007 DAL: 9

2006 DAL: 5

2007 PITT: 6

2006 PITT: 3

Yuds, did you think somehow that I believed the key to putting up fantasy points was a high number of incompletions or something?

 

[The Jerk]

The effects of weather are consistently overrated by the general public (especially the betting public). Rain, snow, cold, etc generally make far less difference than you think, and the myth is mostly perpetuated through confirmation bias.Wind is the exception to this. You can rarely see it on TV, and it is a big deal, so if anything it gets underrated.

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said. However, my memory recalls wind being more of a factor as the season progresses, too. It's not just a matter of the weather being colder or including more precipitation.

 

[mcdons3]

Here are the positional breakdowns of the top tier of players for fantasy purposes this year vs last year (4 pts per passing TD, 0 PPR):AVG OF TOP 12 QB:07 22.6 PPG06 17.8 PPGAVG OF TOP 24 RB:07 14.3 PPG06 13.6 PPGAVG OF TOP 36 WR:07 11.7 PPG06 9.2 PPGAVG OF TOP 12 TE:07 8.406 6.6Even with a lot of the top scoring RB from last year not stacking up so far, there have been a number of other RB collectively doing very well.Is there something in the water this year that has players scoring way better than last year? Did the refs change what rules they are calling this time around? Will there be any defense this year in the NFL? Or is this the year where there are hardly any strong defensive teams?And most importantly, should we expect the offensive explosion to continue throughout the season?

First off, are the '06 numbers from the first three weeks of 2006 or the whole season? Because that makes a huge difference...The only way to compare apples to apples here would be to compare how the top players through week 3 scored when compared to this year. Of course there's going to be higher scoring for the top 12 players through 3 weeks when compared to a full season, because in those three weeks you can drop out legitimate top 12 players for having an off week, leaving you with only stellar 3-week stretches making up your top 12.If this is stats from the first 3 weeks of last season, then I suppose we can consider chalking it up to a few more shootouts in the past 3 weeks than in the first 3 weeks of '06. 3 weeks isn't a huge sample size, after all.

 

[The Jerk]

2007 NE: 79.5 pct completion rate, 10.1 yards per attempt, 10 TDs

2006 NE: 53.3 pct completion rate, 6.6 yards per attempt, 4 TDs

2007 DAL: 58.0 pct completion rate, 9.8 yards per attempt, 9 TDs

2006 DAL: 51.6 pct completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt, 5 TDs (Bledsoe)

2007 PITT: 59.7 pct completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 6 TDs

2006 PITT: 52.1 pct completion rate, 5.8 yards per attempt, 3 TDs (Batch game 1)

Just to expand the stats for the first three weeks (or games for each respective team, as I'm ignoring byes)...

 

[Phlash]

Maybe it's me but it just seems like the defenses are just awful. Right now I'm having a hard time saying there's a dominant defensive unit in the NFL.

The Patriots have given up 14, 14, and 7 points in 3 weeks. The only TDs they've given up have been in the red zone - something BB will harp to them in the coming week. Once they get that under control, watch out. I'd say thats pretty dominant.

 

[Da Guru]

Here are the positional breakdowns of the top tier of players for fantasy purposes this year vs last year (4 pts per passing TD, 0 PPR):AVG OF TOP 12 QB:07 22.6 PPG06 17.8 PPGAVG OF TOP 24 RB:07 14.3 PPG06 13.6 PPGAVG OF TOP 36 WR:07 11.7 PPG06 9.2 PPGAVG OF TOP 12 TE:07 8.406 6.6Even with a lot of the top scoring RB from last year not stacking up so far, there have been a number of other RB collectively doing very well.Is there something in the water this year that has players scoring way better than last year? Did the refs change what rules they are calling this time around? Will there be any defense this year in the NFL? Or is this the year where there are hardly any strong defensive teams?And most importantly, should we expect the offensive explosion to continue throughout the season?

Thank god I don`t have to worry about scoring too much..I have LJ, Brees and Fitz..none of them are at the top 12 of their positions..

 

[SuperJohn96]

Everyone in my league has noticed it too. There seems to be more of the 'Crap my team scored 60 points and still lost!' type of complaints.

Right now (heading into MNF) our league is averaging 59.08 points per team per game.

Last year at this time (3 weeks), our average was 51.53, an increase of almost 15%.

The other interesting thing is that 2006 scoring increased by the end of the year to 53.62 ppg, which is even more interesting when you take BYE weeks, and PRESUMABLY lower scoring during those weeks. In fact, just counting the BYE weeks, the avg was 54.26 ppg, which is a 5% increase over the first three weeks.

If that +5% holds true to this year, then scoring during my league's Bye weeks will jump to 62.21 ppg.

In my league, for many years scoring 60 points pretty much meant a win.

If these numbers pan out, 60 points won't even put you in the top half of the league.

I would imagine it's very similar for other leagues