Fantasy Value Perspective-who gains/loses the most in the top 10? (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

Pre draft thinking. Its always in an owners best interest to hype or buy low on a guy when there is uncertainty. This draft seems as uncertain as any in recent memory. Lets talk who you want to buy and who you want to unload. Alter, disagree, change all you want.

Personally, My Number 1 target is Justin Blackmon.

Buys:

Justin Blackmon: I think the Jags go Johnny Manziel. He puts butts in seats and at this point is all they can ask for. Johnny to Justin COULD be deadly and worth the risk from an owner who sat on a (s) spot during the fantasy playoffs. Worst case, they get Bortles who is an upgrade at QB from what Blackmon produced with.

CJ Spiller: If they get a top WR or OL, all it can do is open up more lanes for the kid. After such a letdown last year, he is prime buy low IMO.

Sam Bradford: I feel pretty confident the #2 pick goes to the offensive side of the ball. About 50/50 on the #13 pick. Add Kenny Britt and coming off a worthless season, its all upside here.

Sell:

Houston Texans Skill players: No QB is worth the #1 this year IMO. Best get out while you can.

Kyle Randolph: I have no faith Minny grabs a QB. Leading to another year of holding an unstartable yet undroppable player.

On the fence:

Josh Gordon: If Cleveland grabs a QB its a major Plus. If Cleveland goes Watkins, I think its a major negative. To me he is the biggest wildcard right now.

 

[Gandalf]

If Blackmon can recover then I agree. It's not a lack of talent holding him back. Getting a new QB only helps if he gets back on the field.

 

[Tanner9919]

Sam Bradford: I feel pretty confident the #2 pick goes to the offensive side of the ball. About 50/50 on the #13 pick. Add Kenny Britt and coming off a worthless season, its all upside here.

Sell:

Houston Texans Skill players: No QB is worth the #1 this year IMO. Best get out while you can.

Kyle Randolph: I have no faith Minny grabs a QB. Leading to another year of holding an unstartable yet undroppable player.

you mean Kyle Rudolph,right? go read up on what Minnesota's offensive coordinator Norv Turner has done for TE's in the past, withor without competent QB's..Jordan Cameron had Mickey Mouse throwing to him last season,and still caught 80 balls,for 917 yards, and 7tds..Jay Novachek, Antonio Gates, etc.Turner knows TE's and RB's.

trust me you'll be disappointed if you sell Rudolph now, he's a buy,buy,buy!!

not so sure I agree on selling AJ - he'll still get his..agree with selling Foster, I think he's toast..

Sam Bradford is nothing but a sell 'low' at this point..he hasn't been able to prove he can stay healthy - he's missed 16 games since 2011 ( that's a full season)..Brian Schottemheimer is still coaching the offense - one that finished 30th in total pts and 22nd in scoring in 2013...

what do you mean about who gains/loses the most in the top 10? I thought maybe you were talking about the top 10 at every position, who stands to gain/lose..

I'd sell A. Morris - Jay Gruden is going to make that backfield an RBBC nightmare..

 

[False Start]

Sam Bradford: I feel pretty confident the #2 pick goes to the offensive side of the ball. About 50/50 on the #13 pick. Add Kenny Britt and coming off a worthless season, its all upside here.

Sell:

Houston Texans Skill players: No QB is worth the #1 this year IMO. Best get out while you can.

Kyle Randolph: I have no faith Minny grabs a QB. Leading to another year of holding an unstartable yet undroppable player.

you mean Kyle Rudolph,right? go read up on what Minnesota's offensive coordinator Norv Turner has done for TE's in the past, withor without competent QB's..Jordan Cameron had Mickey Mouse throwing to him last season,and still caught 80 balls,for 917 yards, and 7tds..Jay Novachek, Antonio Gates, etc.Turner knows TE's and RB's.

trust me you'll be disappointed if you sell Rudolph now, he's a buy,buy,buy!!

not so sure I agree on selling AJ - he'll still get his..agree with selling Foster, I think he's toast..

Sam Bradford is nothing but a sell 'low' at this point..he hasn't been able to prove he can stay healthy - he's missed 16 games since 2011 ( that's a full season)..Brian Schottemheimer is still coaching the offense - one that finished 30th in total pts and 22nd in scoring in 2013...

what do you mean about who gains/loses the most in the top 10? I thought maybe you were talking about the top 10 at every position, who stands to gain/lose..

I'd sell A. Morris - Jay Gruden is going to make that backfield an RBBC nightmare..

Only year he really used a RBBC was last year because the drafted Bernard when they saw the Firm was done, Benson before that. Morris does not have a Bernard to contend with and Morris is fully capable of being a 3 down back, Shanny didn't agree and now he is out of the league. But hey glad you put thought into that opinion. Morris is a 275+ carry back and then some. He only has 2800+ yards and 20 TDs in two seasons, but yeah good call, lets sit him down.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

I don't think a lot of people fully appreciate the risk they are taking by investing heavily in Blackmon or Gordon. Both of these guys have shown so far that they have major issues with substances (right now Blackmon appears riskier), and these addictions for some people are just too much to overcome permanently.

I'm seeing Gordon ranked dynasty WR3 in some cases despite being one strike away from a year long suspension, and Blackmon in the top 25-30 despite no word on if/when he'll be reinstated. For all we know Blackmon may have failed testing again since his suspension but we haven't heard about it because it's not supposed to be made public.

These aren't waiver wire guys, some serious value has to be given up to get guys with these rankings, and the risk is pretty high IMO that either or both of them will miss significant time in future due to their addictions and test fails. It just seems to me people are ignoring this, especially with Gordon, and it very well may come back to bite them in the behind.

 

[Sabertooth]

I offered Trent Richardson for Blackmon. I know this owner likes Richardson because he just traded for him in a different league we share. :fingerscrossed:

 

[CentralPA]

I don't think a lot of people fully appreciate the risk they are taking by investing heavily in Blackmon or Gordon. Both of these guys have shown so far that they have major issues with substances (right now Blackmon appears riskier), and these addictions for some people are just too much to overcome permanently.

I'm seeing Gordon ranked dynasty WR3 in some cases despite being one strike away from a year long suspension, and Blackmon in the top 25-30 despite no word on if/when he'll be reinstated. For all we know Blackmon may have failed testing again since his suspension but we haven't heard about it because it's not supposed to be made public.

These aren't waiver wire guys, some serious value has to be given up to get guys with these rankings, and the risk is pretty high IMO that either or both of them will miss significant time in future due to their addictions and test fails. It just seems to me people are ignoring this, especially with Gordon, and it very well may come back to bite them in the behind.

I fully understand the risk in keeping Gordon but it's one I am willing to take. He was able to have a monster year with guys like Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. That's just not something to discount. It's looking like Bryan Hoyer will be the QB there and they'll probably draft Watkins but I can only see that slightly diminishing his value if at all.

His two game suspension was because of codeine from subscription cough syrup. Granted, he has a history of marijuana use in college but it sounds as if he is well aware of the consequences if he gets caught again and I think this past year showed he has matured somewhat. Blackmon is a way bigger red flag then Gordon is IMO.

 

[Sabertooth]

Blackmon is a great call to be quite honest but I have Gordon higher than him. I have Gordon significantly higher in my rankings though. Not even close really.

That said I just sent Trent Richardson away for Blackmon and I am giddy about it. Blackmon has averaged 14 PPG over his career. That's borderline top 20 ppg. Even that alone gives him pretty good value. Considering he did this one a team with perhaps the worst quarterbacking in the entire NFL over the past two seasons, I think he has potential to improve. Blackmon can play football. Now question about it. He reminds me of Brandon Marshall. Just a damn baller. Now he might be out of the league too. I don't think he is. I think he's only entering his third year.

Here is an article by Fabiano on the top 3rd year wideouts. I have Blackmon behind only Alshon and Gordon in terms of talent and potential. Now I think Blackmon or Gordon take a real hit if their respective teams select wideouts early. I like Watkins more than either of them, but less than Alshon.

Top third-year fantasy wide receivers

Michael Fabiano
NFL Media fantasy editor | NFL.com
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Throughout the course of NFL history, a number of wide receivers have recorded their first big statistical campaign in their third NFL season. It's happened with past superstars like Harold Carmichael, Steve Largent, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith and Sidney Rice, and it was true again in more recent seasons with the emergence of Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. So, which wideouts are most likely to follow this trend in 2014? Here are the best receivers entering their third pro campaigns.

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  Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
  
  10. Chris Givens, St. Louis Rams
  Givens took a step back in the stat sheets last season, posting fewer catches, yards and touchdowns compared to his rookie totals. While he still seems likely to fill a starting role in the offense, Givens is one of several young wideouts the Rams are hoping will break out in 2014. But with Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Brian Quick and Stedman Bailey all in the mix, Givens seems unlikely to become a fantasy hero.
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  Ben Liebenberg/NFL
  
  9. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks
  Kearse is best remembered for the touchdown catch he brought down in Seattle's blowout win over the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, but he isn't likely to make a major impact for fantasy owners in 2014. While he does have some upside, Kearse is third on Seattle's depth chart behind Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin in an offense that doesn't throw the football a ton. He'll be worth a late-round flier in deep formats.
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  Tom Uhlman/Associated Press
  
  8. Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals
  You might not know it, but Jones was tied for seventh among wide receivers with an impressive 10 touchdown receptions last season. Of course, the California product also scored 40 percent of those touchdowns in just one game. While there's still some upside in terms of his catch and yardage totals, Jones will be hard-pressed to find the end zone 10 times again. He's more of a No. 4 wideout in fantasy football.
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  Jack Dempsey/Associated Press
  
  7. Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars
  Blackmon has mega-talent and the potential to become a surefire No. 1 wideout in fantasy land. Unfortunately, he's in the middle of an indefinite suspension due to multiple violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy. It's unclear when this suspension will be lifted, but when it does Blackmon will be a hot property in fantasy leagues. In fact, he's worth a draft-and-stash in leagues that have large rosters.
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  Bill Kostroun/Associated Press
  
  6. Rueben Randle, New York Giants
  Randle showed flashes of potential last season, posting 41 catches for 611 yards and six touchdowns for the G-Men. He's a good bet to improve on those totals in 2014 with Hakeem Nicks out of the picture in New York. That leaves Randle as the clear starter opposite Victor Cruz. New offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo will be looking to revitalize a passing game that was unimpressive in 2013, so Randle is in a good position to succeed.
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  Ric Tapia/NFL
  
  5. Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
  Floyd, a former Notre Dame standout, posted 1,041 yards with five touchdowns while finishing 24th in fantasy points among wide receivers last season. He's going to be in an even better position to succeed in 2014, as the loss of Andre Roberts (Redskins) could mean more targets in what figures to be a solid pass attack. Floyd should be seen as a No. 3 fantasy wideout playing alongside superstar Larry Fitzgerald.
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  AJ Mast/Associated Press
  
  4. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
  Hilton has seen his reception and yardage totals increase in each of his first two pro seasons, but that trend isn't guaranteed to continue in 2014. The Colts will have Reggie Wayne (knee) and Dwayne Allen (hip) back in the pass attack, not to mention the addition of former Giants wideout Hakeem Nicks. So while he's young and in a great offense, Hilton isn't likely to post massive fantasy totals this season.
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  L.G. Patterson/Associated Press
  
  3. Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans
  Wright had the quietest 90-plus catch season this side of Eddie Royal in his rookie campaign, but he's going to be a popular breakout candidate in 2014. The talented Baylor product should benefit from the presence of new coach Ken Whisenhunt, whose offense helped Keenan Allen finish as a top-20 fantasy wideout last season. Look for Wright to emerge into an attractive WR2 with added value in all PPR formats.
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  David Richard/Associated Press
  
  2. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
  Jeffery went off in the stat sheet last season, posting 89 catches for 1,421 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. A perfect example of how some receivers are striking it rich for fantasy leaguers in their second pro campaigns, the South Carolina product has great hands and is in an explosive offense. Jeffery also has the benefit of playing alongside Brandon Marshall, so double-teaming him is more difficult for defenses.
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  Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
  
  1. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
  You can't do any better than Gordon did in his second pro season, posting 1,646 yards with nine touchdowns and the most fantasy points of any player at his position. What's more, he did it in just 14 games. So ... what will Gordon do for an encore? Well, he should continue to thrive in the offense of new coordinator Kyle Shanahan and is a virtual lock to come off the board in the second round of most drafts.