Andrew Garda
Moderator
The NFL regular season is done, but there's still action to talk about for daily fantasy purposes as we hit Wild Card Weekend. Some of the staff has put in their Sunday cash lineups for us to take a look at, and I have pulled some selections to take a closer look at this week. Subscribers can look at the whole lineups here.
Since there are so few games and players, I have chosen some good value plays I saw at each of the positions and that's what we're breaking down today.
Trends
Value Quarterbacks
The staff chose to go with Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins, both slightly cheaper than a guy like Russell Wilson or Ben Roethlisberger but also with less upside. If you want to save some money though, there is a little value at quarterback and that savings can be used elsewhere. Smith faces a tough defense but has been playing pretty well this season and with Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce give him a solid pair of weapons. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware will run well enough to keep the defenses honest as well.
I'm less excited about Cousins. He's definitely better than we gave him credit for but he's also feasted on some lesser competition and the Packers are not weak sisters on defense. Green Bay is the No. 9 defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA measurement and they've done a good job of beating on opposing quarterbacks. While Smith faces an equally tough Houston defense, he's more proven in those situations while Cousins is still proving himself.
That said, I started him. I think he's going to have to throw and will get enough points to reach his value, with some upside to do more. Both as fine picks, Cousins is just a tad riskier.
Value Running Backs
We the exception of myself, the staff didn't start a top tier running back. And even me, who ran out Adrian Peterson, leaned towards some more value plays as well.
Fitzgerald Toussaint should get the start with DeAngelo Williams out and while he'll see some snaps go to Jordan Todman, Toussaint will get more of the work. My only concern with him is if the Steelers lean more heavily towards the pass game to force the Bengals and inexperienced AJ McCarron to have to win with his arm. If that happens, you may not see enough work to warrant a start here. It's a worthwhile risk in some respects, and Toussaint is one of the few bargain running backs who is a starter, giving him great upside.
[SIZE=10.5pt]I threw Jerrick McKinnon out there and it's a true a Hail Mary play though one I like (and crazy that I actually stacked running backs). Why? Because it looks to me that the Vikings are trying to find new ways to get McKinnon the ball, especially in space. He's had over 80 yards in two of the last three weeks and would have had a huge touchdown catch had Teddy Bridgewater thrown a better ball. It's risky but he was super cheap and I think if this team is going to have a chance they are going to have to use McKinnon and continue to do what they did against the Packers, lining him up in the slot or out wide. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Value Wide Receiver[/SIZE]
The staff used a lot of players off of the top tier, with me (again) being the only one with a top receiver (Antonio Brown). Pierre Garcon, James Jones and Marvin Jones are all good value plays with Jeremy Maclin in there as not a lower end play but not quite a top guy.
Both Jones are the riskier plays, with James Jones very touchdown dependent. Last week seems like an outlier for the year as normally he barely tops 80 yards. They'll need a big game from him to win in Washington though. Marvin Jones hasn't put a ton of yards on the board this year, but has been productive for a No. 2. The last two games have seen him with just 30-40 yards and that's concerning. The Steelers will double up on AJ Green though and try to clamp on Tyler Eifert so Jones could need to be big for a win.
I like Garcon out of that lower tier group. Cousins should do all right, and Garcon has had touchdowns three games in a row. I like him to make it four this weekend. Maclin also is on a three game touchdown tear as well, so while his yardage total isn't fantastic the last several games, Alex Smith looked for him a ton over the last six games (6 TDs in that stretch).
Value Tight End
Only a couple of selections here and one of them isn't a value—it's Jordan Reed, who is probably the best play this weekend at tight end.
Again, it's me with the wacky pick, as I threw in Heath Miller. Miller has been up and down this season, and is coming off a middling day (3 catches for 18 yards) saved by one touchdown—his first since Week 2. Ben Roethlisberger will look for him though, and if Cincinnati is smart they try to overload Antonio Brown, forcing Roethlisberger to go elsewhere. That means Martavis Bryant and Miller. I like Miller as a potential X-factor for the game and Roethlisberger can rely on him even if Miller hasn't seen a ton of action over the course of the season.
Since there are so few games and players, I have chosen some good value plays I saw at each of the positions and that's what we're breaking down today.
Trends
Value Quarterbacks
The staff chose to go with Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins, both slightly cheaper than a guy like Russell Wilson or Ben Roethlisberger but also with less upside. If you want to save some money though, there is a little value at quarterback and that savings can be used elsewhere. Smith faces a tough defense but has been playing pretty well this season and with Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce give him a solid pair of weapons. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware will run well enough to keep the defenses honest as well.
I'm less excited about Cousins. He's definitely better than we gave him credit for but he's also feasted on some lesser competition and the Packers are not weak sisters on defense. Green Bay is the No. 9 defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA measurement and they've done a good job of beating on opposing quarterbacks. While Smith faces an equally tough Houston defense, he's more proven in those situations while Cousins is still proving himself.
That said, I started him. I think he's going to have to throw and will get enough points to reach his value, with some upside to do more. Both as fine picks, Cousins is just a tad riskier.
Value Running Backs
We the exception of myself, the staff didn't start a top tier running back. And even me, who ran out Adrian Peterson, leaned towards some more value plays as well.
Fitzgerald Toussaint should get the start with DeAngelo Williams out and while he'll see some snaps go to Jordan Todman, Toussaint will get more of the work. My only concern with him is if the Steelers lean more heavily towards the pass game to force the Bengals and inexperienced AJ McCarron to have to win with his arm. If that happens, you may not see enough work to warrant a start here. It's a worthwhile risk in some respects, and Toussaint is one of the few bargain running backs who is a starter, giving him great upside.
[SIZE=10.5pt]I threw Jerrick McKinnon out there and it's a true a Hail Mary play though one I like (and crazy that I actually stacked running backs). Why? Because it looks to me that the Vikings are trying to find new ways to get McKinnon the ball, especially in space. He's had over 80 yards in two of the last three weeks and would have had a huge touchdown catch had Teddy Bridgewater thrown a better ball. It's risky but he was super cheap and I think if this team is going to have a chance they are going to have to use McKinnon and continue to do what they did against the Packers, lining him up in the slot or out wide. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Value Wide Receiver[/SIZE]
The staff used a lot of players off of the top tier, with me (again) being the only one with a top receiver (Antonio Brown). Pierre Garcon, James Jones and Marvin Jones are all good value plays with Jeremy Maclin in there as not a lower end play but not quite a top guy.
Both Jones are the riskier plays, with James Jones very touchdown dependent. Last week seems like an outlier for the year as normally he barely tops 80 yards. They'll need a big game from him to win in Washington though. Marvin Jones hasn't put a ton of yards on the board this year, but has been productive for a No. 2. The last two games have seen him with just 30-40 yards and that's concerning. The Steelers will double up on AJ Green though and try to clamp on Tyler Eifert so Jones could need to be big for a win.
I like Garcon out of that lower tier group. Cousins should do all right, and Garcon has had touchdowns three games in a row. I like him to make it four this weekend. Maclin also is on a three game touchdown tear as well, so while his yardage total isn't fantastic the last several games, Alex Smith looked for him a ton over the last six games (6 TDs in that stretch).
Value Tight End
Only a couple of selections here and one of them isn't a value—it's Jordan Reed, who is probably the best play this weekend at tight end.
Again, it's me with the wacky pick, as I threw in Heath Miller. Miller has been up and down this season, and is coming off a middling day (3 catches for 18 yards) saved by one touchdown—his first since Week 2. Ben Roethlisberger will look for him though, and if Cincinnati is smart they try to overload Antonio Brown, forcing Roethlisberger to go elsewhere. That means Martavis Bryant and Miller. I like Miller as a potential X-factor for the game and Roethlisberger can rely on him even if Miller hasn't seen a ton of action over the course of the season.
