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favorite draft position for 2018 (1 Viewer)

Keith1

Footballguy
After winning the "loser's pool" in  my league last year (I know, that's like being the skinniest kid in fat camp), I had my choice of whatever draft slot I wanted (1 through 12). But I had to make that choice at the end of May. At that time, I decided to go with pick # 1, so that I can get whoever I want--and not have to worry about hold-outs, preseason injuries, etc. If I had to do it today, I probably would take # 2 (primarily because I want to take Zeke, and I know Gurley would go # 1 otherwise). 

In the past I have picked 1/2 or 11/12, and I personally find it to be a different draft than when you are somewhere in the middle. At the end (either front or back), you need to have more of an idea as to who you plan to take (sort of scripted out). With 23 picks in between your picks, runs start, end, and then start again. You simply can't afford to "wait for your guys." In the middle (at least between slots 3 and 10), you can wait, depending upon who has already gone and what the needs are of the guys in front of, or behind you, are. 

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I personally like pick 3. I find it difficult to pick between Gurley, Bell, and Zeke and this takes the guessing game out for me.

 

Keith1

Footballguy
I personally like pick 3. I find it difficult to pick between Gurley, Bell, and Zeke and this takes the guessing game out for me.
My only concern there Frog was Lev Bell's hold-out. Those guys tend to get hurt. Last year he didn't, but did have 400 touches. I would not want to tempt fate again this year. 

 

kutta

Footballguy
Anywhere in the top 6 I’d be happy with - In order I’d take Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke, Brown, Hopkins.

After that I think it gets much more dicey.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
After winning the "loser's pool" in  my league last year (I know, that's like being the skinniest kid in fat camp), I had my choice of whatever draft slot I wanted (1 through 12). But I had to make that choice at the end of May. At that time, I decided to go with pick # 1, so that I can get whoever I want--and not have to worry about hold-outs, preseason injuries, etc. If I had to do it today, I probably would take # 2 (primarily because I want to take Zeke, and I know Gurley would go # 1 otherwise). 
Right now 2 the best.  You don't have to worry about Bell if you don't want to....or you can take him.   I have DJ 4, but DJ has a few more concerns than the other 3.  Get Gurley or Zeke and be happy.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Just gimme something in the top 4 or as close to the elbow as possible.  I'm reaching for McCaffrey if I don't get a top 4 back, so I want to have a pick in that 13-15 range to feel comfortable enough to wait until round 2 and pick someone else round 1 - maximize value.  Picks 5-9 are no man's land.  He'd be a major reach there, but I also lack assurances he will fall.

The dream sequence is pick 4, take DJ, then McCaffrey falls to 21.

 

Phenomena

Footballguy
Just gimme something in the top 4 or as close to the elbow as possible.  I'm reaching for McCaffrey if I don't get a top 4 back, so I want to have a pick in that 13-15 range to feel comfortable enough to wait until round 2 and pick someone else round 1 - maximize value.  Picks 5-9 are no man's land.  He'd be a major reach there, but I also lack assurances he will fall.

The dream sequence is pick 4, take DJ, then McCaffrey falls to 21.


I'm also in this camp - can get a top RB, and the 2/3 turn is still pretty good value. 

 

Ack88

Footballguy
Pick #5 for me-

Zeke, Gurley, Bell, AB, & DJ, in that order for me, are a cut above the next group in PPR.

For standard- pick #4- as I am assured a top 4 RB.

 

Mr. Know-It-All

Footballguy
Pick 12 is where I have the most "luck".  Three years ago everything went wrong and I wound up with the #1 pick.  Having the #1 pick I won the championship which meant LAST year I had the #12 pick - well I won it again last year meaning this year I have the #12 again.  Why 12?  In our league in the first 7 rounds you have to pick one each of QB/RB/WR-TE/K,DL/LB/DB so you cannot get your #2 at any position until round 8.  By having Pick 12 you get the first pick in round 8 - which I think is FAR more critical than the first pick in Round 1.

 

Crippler

IBL Representative
Pick #5 for me-

Zeke, Gurley, Bell, AB, & DJ, in that order for me, are a cut above the next group in PPR.

For standard- pick #4- as I am assured a top 4 RB.
I was going to say 5 as want Barkley and than Green on the way back but 6 will be perfect if everyone feels those are the top 5. Going by polls it seems that way. So give me 6. 

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
I’m at 8 and I actually really like my spot. I can either get 2 elite WR’s like a Hopkins/Jones and Allen or switch one out for Gordon. 

 

Milkman

Footballguy
7th for me. 

If i can come away with these 4 as my first 4 picks I'm feeling really good about my team. 

Fournette

Adams

Tyreek

Engram

 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
I hope to draft around 6.  I can grab an elite player but still be in pretty good shape on the way back down. 

 

The Dude

Footballguy
I think you really need to look at round 3 and see where the talent falls off - it's usually in that round where risk goes up significantly.

So if you think the draft is 30 players deep than you would want a top 6 pick.

 
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The Dude

Footballguy
Let me clear that up - I mock the top 3 rounds and look for the point in round 3 where risk really starts to increase.  I then look at the sets of 3 that each team has and pick what I think ids the best group - and that (or one - two spots earlier) is the slot I want.

 

NYRAGE

Footballguy
Mathematically, isn't the answer always 1?  I guess you can say some other position because you might get a better second round pick, but if assigned a value to every pick (the higher the pick, the higher the value), the math always works out for #1.

If you like 2 or 3 guys equally in the first, then sure, you might prefer the third pick to get that better player in the second round, but how does that look after 3 rounds, 5 rounds, or later?

 

The Dude

Footballguy
Mathematically, isn't the answer always 1?  I guess you can say some other position because you might get a better second round pick, but if assigned a value to every pick (the higher the pick, the higher the value), the math always works out for #1.

If you like 2 or 3 guys equally in the first, then sure, you might prefer the third pick to get that better player in the second round, but how does that look after 3 rounds, 5 rounds, or later?
Would depend on how closely you have picks 1-2 or 1-2-3 etc rated.  If you had 1-2-3 rated closely the answer would then be 3.

 

Borden

Footballguy
In order: 1, 2, 12, 11, 3, 4, 10, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

I like to be at the turn. You get one player that is falling because people over think things and the other one you don’t feel bad about reaching because you know he won’t last 2 more rounds. 

The other thing is that it I feel like I can spark runs on players. Or with that second pick when people see you going outside of typical ADP with your second pick, they will start reaching for their guys because they’re spooked that you’ll jump ADP and take them.

 

tkrull

Footballguy
In order: 1, 2, 12, 11, 3, 4, 10, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

I like to be at the turn. You get one player that is falling because people over think things and the other one you don’t feel bad about reaching because you know he won’t last 2 more rounds. 

The other thing is that it I feel like I can spark runs on players. Or with that second pick when people see you going outside of typical ADP with your second pick, they will start reaching for their guys because they’re spooked that you’ll jump ADP and take them.
Same.  Big fan of the turn.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
I really like 5/6...you can get Saquon and catch value being in the middle of the rounds.  

Saquon is my #3 ranked player this year.

 

The Dude

Footballguy
In order: 1, 2, 12, 11, 3, 4, 10, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

I like to be at the turn. You get one player that is falling because people over think things and the other one you don’t feel bad about reaching because you know he won’t last 2 more rounds. 

The other thing is that it I feel like I can spark runs on players. Or with that second pick when people see you going outside of typical ADP with your second pick, they will start reaching for their guys because they’re spooked that you’ll jump ADP and take them.
I think the turn is highly overrated.  Your comment about starting a run by going outside ADP can be done at any spot. 

 

Borden

Footballguy
I think the turn is highly overrated.  Your comment about starting a run by going outside ADP can be done at any spot. 
It can but in the middle parts of the draft I’m not as willing to reach for a guy. And when I do it’s not usually as much of a reach or as noticeable. That’s partially why I said the part before.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Are we talking 3RR?  If so, that makes it very interesting and up for debate.

If it's just regular snake, usually the earlier the better... but this year I do agree that I really like the late spots.  I see a clear top 16 with a big drop after that.  I usually allow leeway for one player to become injured before the draft, so lets call it top 15.  In that sense, I like pick 10 which guarantees me two of those guys this year.  

I like anything in top 7 which gives you brown/hop and the top 4 rbs (include kamara here in ppr).  Really hate 8 and 9 this year.  If PPR normal snake, I would rank them:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 6, 7, 11, 12, 8, 9.

 

Caesar

Footballguy
I hate 5-9, and 10 is barely ahead of those.  This year I like the 1-4 spots.  I think the talent that is still available at the 2-3 turn dries up pretty quick in the middle of the third.  Jordan Howard, Joe Mixon, Aj Green, Mike Evans, Jerrick McKinnon, Devonte Freeman, Doug Baldwin (dropping now due to news), and Kelce have all been staples at the 2-3 turn. 

A start of Gurley, Kelce, AJ Green is pretty damn good.  You can do whatever you want with strategy the rest of the draft with that start. 

I see a lot of people going for those rookie RBs in the 3rd, and I may live to regret this, but I just am not sold that last year was a trend as opposed to an outlier when it comes to rookie RB impact.  I'm certainly not willing to spend a 3rd, but when you look down the board, I think Fitz and Diggs and those guys might almost be a reach there, so I think you need your 3rd pick before the 3.05 and that is why I like the first 4 spots.

As for the 11-12, I also like the turn.  I feel like when I draft from the middle I try to get too cute and wait and then miss out on some guys I want.  At least at the turn, I tend to stick to my draft plan and it fits my style a little better.

I drafted from the 7 spot and the 6 spot recently.  Hate those teams.  My FFPC main event spot is 10, so not too bad, but I better get mocking from that spot. 

 
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The Dude

Footballguy
It can but in the middle parts of the draft I’m not as willing to reach for a guy. And when I do it’s not usually as much of a reach or as noticeable. That’s partially why I said the part before.
Just for debate, wouldn't you be more likely to take a reach at 2.06?  You pick again in 12 spots.  If you reach at 2.02, you don't pick for 24 spots again.

Unless, you are not talking about reaching in round 2.

 
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Conan Troutman

Footballguy
Just for debate, wouldn't you be more likely to take a reach at 2.06?  You pick again in 12 spots.  If you reach at 2.02, you don't pick for 24 spots again.

Unless, you are not talking about reaching in round 2.
You're more likely to gamble your actual target will still be there with your next pick the sooner you get to pick again. 

 

ponchsox

Footballguy
Since I’m pick 11 in 2/3 leagues, I’ll say the turn. Tempted two take 2 RB (McCaffrey 2nd in PPR?) since the strong likelihood that RB at 3/4 turn will not be attractive with plenty of startable WR value.

 
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Borden

Footballguy
Just for debate, wouldn't you be more likely to take a reach at 2.06?  You pick again in 12 spots.  If you reach at 2.02, you don't pick for 24 spots again.

Unless, you are not talking about reaching in round 2.
In round 2 I’m not reaching. There’s too much that good stuff. You get a combination of Fournette, Cook, Hunt, Julio. That’s a fantastic start to a draft. 

I find that when my picks are evenly spaces from the center it’s harder to reach for guys because there’s a higher chance that I will be able to gamble and wait. Which more often than not ends up in me missing my guy. I get what you’re saying though. You’d think that by picking say 5.06 and 6.07 that I would be able to the “falling” guy before he falls and then be able to take the “reach” at less of reach. I get what you’re saying. However, once the draft is live and I’m in the middle, it always feels like I miss my guys by 1 or 2 picks but there’s “good value” guys that I don’t really like that I end up with. 

 

Efritch4

Footballguy
I like pick 4 this year:  I think it’s a great spot to be sitting at - guaranteed to get L. Bell, Zeke, DJ (Gurley definitely gone) or AB if you want to go the WR route. 

 

The Dude

Footballguy
Back to my earlier thought - I am trying to think 3 players deep not just 2.  The uncertainty usually ramps up in round 3 so I am trying to get 3 bank.players.

Copying a random PPR top 36, here is the 3 players you would get if the draft went chalk (chalk being the top 36 from this site) 

1  Gurley  Gronk  Kelce

2  Zeke  Freeman  T Hill

3  Bell  Rodgers  Mckinnon

4  DJ  Mixon  J Howard

5  A Brown  AJ Green  Diggs

6  Barkley  Mccaffrey  D Watson

7  Hopkins  Evans  A Cooper

8  Kamara  D Adams  Guice

9  Beckham  K Allen  Ertz

10  K Hunt  J Jones  Baldwin

11  Fournette  D Cook  Thielen

12  M Thomas  Gordon  R Wilson

So don't get hung up on the players names - that's not important  The key is for these purposes these are your top 36.  The key is what looks like the best trio in your rankings.  

Right now, I get nervous at A Cooper at 3.7 - so I want to pick top 6 probably top 4.

 

Deranged Hermit

Not cool & Pissed
Pick #5 for me-

Zeke, Gurley, Bell, AB, & DJ, in that order for me, are a cut above the next group in PPR.

For standard- pick #4- as I am assured a top 4 RB.
I agree. Plus you get the extra benefit of getting a WR like AJ, Evan's or, if you're lucky, maybe Michael Thomas in the second. 

 
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Heisenberg23

Footballguy
Back to my earlier thought - I am trying to think 3 players deep not just 2.  The uncertainty usually ramps up in round 3 so I am trying to get 3 bank.players.

Copying a random PPR top 36, here is the 3 players you would get if the draft went chalk (chalk being the top 36 from this site) 

1  Gurley  Gronk  Kelce

2  Zeke  Freeman  T Hill

3  Bell  Rodgers  Mckinnon

4  DJ  Mixon  J Howard

5  A Brown  AJ Green  Diggs

6  Barkley  Mccaffrey  D Watson

7  Hopkins  Evans  A Cooper

8  Kamara  D Adams  Guice

9  Beckham  K Allen  Ertz

10  K Hunt  J Jones  Baldwin

11  Fournette  D Cook  Thielen

12  M Thomas  Gordon  R Wilson

So don't get hung up on the players names - that's not important  The key is for these purposes these are your top 36.  The key is what looks like the best trio in your rankings.  

Right now, I get nervous at A Cooper at 3.7 - so I want to pick top 6 probably top 4.
mckinnin going well before 3.o3... rodgers 2nd too early as is watson. gordon going sooner as is freeman

 

BigSteelThrill

Footballguy
mckinnin going well before 3.o3... rodgers 2nd too early as is watson. gordon going sooner as is freeman
Dont think that's the point of his post.

In simpler terms, he is saying look for where you think the biggest drop-off occurs (talent, points, risk, et al.) and draft before that point.

 

Borden

Footballguy
Back to my earlier thought - I am trying to think 3 players deep not just 2.  The uncertainty usually ramps up in round 3 so I am trying to get 3 bank.players.

Copying a random PPR top 36, here is the 3 players you would get if the draft went chalk (chalk being the top 36 from this site) 

1  Gurley  Gronk  Kelce

2  Zeke  Freeman  T Hill

3  Bell  Rodgers  Mckinnon

4  DJ  Mixon  J Howard

5  A Brown  AJ Green  Diggs

6  Barkley  Mccaffrey  D Watson

7  Hopkins  Evans  A Cooper

8  Kamara  D Adams  Guice

9  Beckham  K Allen  Ertz

10  K Hunt  J Jones  Baldwin

11  Fournette  D Cook  Thielen

12  M Thomas  Gordon  R Wilson

So don't get hung up on the players names - that's not important  The key is for these purposes these are your top 36.  The key is what looks like the best trio in your rankings.  

Right now, I get nervous at A Cooper at 3.7 - so I want to pick top 6 probably top 4.
Why would you use a random list? Fantasy Pros Combined Rankings Use the average of a bunch of different places. Or use the PPR ADP at a place like Draft Calculator. Coopers average rank is 37 and his ADP is 3.12. 

If you are using Cooper as your cut off it seems that 12 would be the better spot. Especially, if even 1 or 2 guys can slip. Then you’d end up with 4 of your top guys. 

 

The Dude

Footballguy
It was MFL recent drafts.  Feel to break fantasy pros into trios based on draft spot and lets do the analysis.

Even better if someone would list a recent draft.

 
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The Dude

Footballguy
Why would you use a random list? Fantasy Pros Combined Rankings Use the average of a bunch of different places. Or use the PPR ADP at a place like Draft Calculator. Coopers average rank is 37 and his ADP is 3.12. 

If you are using Cooper as your cut off it seems that 12 would be the better spot. Especially, if even 1 or 2 guys can slip. Then you’d end up with 4 of your top guys. 
No offense but I don't think your point is logical.  Why choose 12 and hope 1-2 guys fall 6 spots?  What if they don't?  I end up in a considerable hole that I have to rebound from and the risk grows exponentially with each round..  

If it's my 36, than I likely want the lowest pick that i can score the best trio.

 

The Dude

Footballguy
Using the site from Borden which I did quick and easy so forgive the format.

1  Todd Gurley LAR (12) Joe Mixon CIN (9) Jordan Howard CHI (5) 

2  Le'Veon Bell PIT (7) Jerick McKinnon SF (11) Travis Kelce KC (12) 

3  Ezekiel Elliott DAL (8) Mike Evans TB (5) LeSean McCoy BUF (11) 

4  David Johnson ARI (9) Rob Gronkowski NE (11) Tyreek Hill KC (12) 

5  Antonio Brown PIT (7) Devonta Freeman ATL (8) Adam Thielen MIN (10) 

6  Alvin Kamara NO (6) Davante Adams GB (7) Aaron Rodgers GB (7) 

7  Saquon Barkley NYG (9) A.J. Green CIN (9) T.Y. Hilton IND (9) 

8  DeAndre Hopkins HOU (10) Christian McCaffrey CAR (4) Doug Baldwin SEA (7) 

9  Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (9) Keenan Allen LAC (8) Stefon Diggs MIN (10) 

10  Kareem Hunt KC (12) Michael Thomas NO (6) Zach Ertz PHI (9) 

11  Melvin Gordon LAC (8) Dalvin Cook MIN (10) Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9) 

12  Leonard Fournette JAC (9) Julio Jones ATL (8) Derrius Guice WAS (4) 

To me it looks like the risk ramps up even sooner - like 2.11 (Mckinnon).  Which means i would want pick 3 and start off Elliott/Evans. 

8 with Hopkins/McCaffrey would be a good start.   

12 looks good through 2 - but too much ground is lost in round 3 between 3.1 and 3.12

 

Avery

Footballguy
I just had the 2nd choice for draft pick in a 12 team, redraft PPR.

I landed on the 3rd pick. (My 2 cents of) logic is:
1. Things look like they drop off quickly in the 3rd round so I want to be higher there.
2. Getting a top RB puts you at a competitive advantage and I see 4 guys there
3. Taking the 3rd pick balances getting that top RB, and protecting yourself from a devastating injury to one of those top 4 guys, and getting higher in the 3rd without dropping all the way to the bottom of the 2rd.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
This year I'd prefer #4, as I'm fine with any of the top 4 RBs and it keeps me high enough in the 3rd before the drop-off.  In general, I like to be a couple spots from either end (2-4 in a 12 team, 2-3 in a 10 team).  I like being able to say "ok it's coming to me now at 5.10, I can see that Mr. 5.11 went RB heavy and will probably go WR, Mr. 5.12/6.01 already has a QB so he'll likely go TE/WR at the turn, so I should do X with this 5.10 pick and can wait to get Player Y at 6.03 before it goes back down the board"

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I just had the 2nd choice for draft pick in a 12 team, redraft PPR.

I landed on the 3rd pick. (My 2 cents of) logic is:
1. Things look like they drop off quickly in the 3rd round so I want to be higher there.
2. Getting a top RB puts you at a competitive advantage and I see 4 guys there
3. Taking the 3rd pick balances getting that top RB, and protecting yourself from a devastating injury to one of those top 4 guys, and getting higher in the 3rd without dropping all the way to the bottom of the 2rd.
I have the three spot in both my money leagues and I have not been in love with any of my mocks. I just don’t love the guys available at the 2-3 turn and feel like I’m either reaching or settling.

 

kyoun1e

Footballguy
I have the three spot in both my money leagues and I have not been in love with any of my mocks. I just don’t love the guys available at the 2-3 turn and feel like I’m either reaching or settling.
I love 3 or 4. Guarantee one of the top 4 RBs.

Lots to like at the 2/3 turn. Could see one of K. Allen/M. Thomas, or D. Adams slip. Could also see CMC/Cook other solid RBs slip as your #2 RB.

Gronk's ADP has him squarely as an option late round 2.

Early round 3, I'm eyeballing TY Hilton or Diggs. Maybe even Mixon.

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I love 3 or 4. Guarantee one of the top 4 RBs.

Lots to like at the 2/3 turn. Could see one of K. Allen/M. Thomas, or D. Adams slip. Could also see CMC/Cook other solid RBs slip as your #2 RB.

Gronk's ADP has him squarely as an option late round 2.

Early round 3, I'm eyeballing TY Hilton or Diggs. Maybe even Mixon.
Haven’t seen Allen, Thomas, Adams, CMC, Cook or Gronk make it back to 2.10 in any of my mocks. But who knows what happens come draft day with real league mates.

Im always stuck looking at Jordan Howard, Mike Evans at that turn. Evans could be solid but sort of burned me last year, so maybe it’s just a personal agenda.

 

Avery

Footballguy
Haven’t seen Allen, Thomas, Adams, CMC, Cook or Gronk make it back to 2.10 in any of my mocks. But who knows what happens come draft day with real league mates.

Im always stuck looking at Jordan Howard, Mike Evans at that turn. Evans could be solid but sort of burned me last year, so maybe it’s just a personal agenda.
Funny... I was getting ready to post that I grabbed Allen or CMC at 2.10 but they both went right before me.

Looking at the likes of Green, Hill, Evans, Freeman or Kelce at 2.10 now...

 

Cabby

Footballguy
I've had the 9 hole twice and I absolutely hate it. If you go Wr, you seem to miss out on the RBs you want in the second. I think a top 4 pick would be best

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
Funny... I was getting ready to post that I grabbed Allen or CMC at 2.10 but they both went right before me.

Looking at the likes of Green, Hill, Evans, Freeman or Kelce at 2.10 now...
Do they not do official “X Round Draft” threads around these parts anymore?  I usually disappear over the summer... but always enjoy them as you get some strategy and discussion on a specific pick, and I’ve got the 3 spot in both leagues.

 

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